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www.peakoil.net
Workshop in Uppsala 2002
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The world oil depletion curve is based on all available information on oil reserves and estimates of the amounts yet-to-find, and indicates that world oil production will reach a peak around 2010 and decline thereafter. The seminar evaluated the evidence for this forecast, and addressed the important political and environmental consequences.
ASPO plans to update the evaluation every year as new information and insights come in, with the intention of providing governments with a reliable basis for planning their responses to this critical issue.
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Bruce StanleyAssociated Press
Oil experts warn global crude supplies could peak by 2010
UPPSALA, Sweden -- Global supplies of crude oil will peak as early as 2010 and then start to decline, ushering in an era of soaring energy prices and economic upheaval -- or so said an international group of petroleum specialists meeting Friday. They hope to persuade oil-dependent countries like the United States to stop what they view as squandering the planet's finite bounty of fossil fuels. Americans, as the biggest consumers of energy, could suffer a particularly harsh impact on their lifestyle, warned participants in the two-day conference on oil depletion that began Thursday at Uppsala University in Uppsala, Sweden. "There is no factual data to support the general sense that the world will be awash in cheap oil forever," said Matthew Simmons, an investment banker who helped advise President Bush's campaign on energy policy. "We desperately need to find a new form of energy."
The Washington Times, The Detroit News,
Houston Chronicle, Las Vegas Sun,
Oil News, Bangkok Post, The Seattle Times,
Atlanta Journal, FoxNews Channel
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One TV camera for 30 minutes
Bo Holmström, TV4, Sweden
Matthew Simmons:
“We need a wake up call. We need it desperately. We need basically a new form of energy. I don’t know that there is one.”
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Doris Leblond
“ASPO openly denounce the "politically correct" view held by most policymakers and institutions—not to mention oil companies—that "near-term oil supply is mainly an economic and geopolitical concern."
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Lisbon 2004
The documentary workshop
At least seven teamsRepresented by team Kelly Way, six weeks on the rood for peak oil
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US Lower 48
US Lower 48: annual oil "mean" discovery & production with Hubbert discovery model
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discovery smooth 5 yrmodel Hubbert disc.productionHubbert disc. shift 35 yr
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Jean Laherrère Jan. 2003
depression
oil price
proration
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Sadad Al Husseini
26-Oct-2004
Sadad Al Husseini, just retired as vice-president of the Saudi oil company Aramco: The American government's forecast for future oil supplies are a "dangerous over-estimate".
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10 new Saudi Arabia
2025201520051995
80 mm b/d
100 mm b/d
60 mm b/d
40 mm b/d
+ 38.6 mmbd82 +/-
120.6
Reservoir capabilitydeclines: the leaking bucket syndrome
3-5 % capabilitydecline rate
20 mm b/d
97.6 mmbd = 10 Saudi Arabias by 2025
- 59 mmbd97.6mmbd
2% increase
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The world needs new oil fields
ExxonMobil:
In other words, by 2015, we will
need to find, develop and produce a
volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being
produced today.
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Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington, May 17, 2005• Remaining world oil reserves are abundant.
• Spare production capacity outside Saudi Arabia is minimal.
• Saudi Arabia now is pumping 9.5 million barrels of oil a day. The country has 1.5 million barrels a day of excess capacity and could maintain 11 million barrels a day if needed.
• There are a number of countries that can increase their capacity.
• There are still huge oil fields in Saudi Arabia. The country has enough oil to pump 12.5 million to 15 million barrels a day for the next 13 to 15 years.
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Deutsche Bank, December 2, 2004
The ASPO view
“The end-of-the-fossil-hydrocarbons scenario is not therefore a doom-and gloom picture painted by pessimistic end-of-the world prophets, but a view of scarcity in the coming years and decades that must be taken seriously. Forward-looking politicians, company chiefs and economists should prepare for this in good time, to effect the necessary transition as smoothly as possible.”
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T. Boone Pickens
"Let me tell you some facts the way I see it. Global oil is 84 million barrels a day. I don't believe you can get it any more than 84 million barrels. I don't care what Abdullah, Putin or anybody else says about oil reserves or production. I think they are on decline in the biggest oil fields in the world today and I know what's it like once you turn the corner and start declining, it's a tread mill that you just can't keep up with.”
Palm Springs, May 4, 2005