Www.cses.washington.edu/cig/ Design Criteria for a National Climate Service: Insights from a RISA Program Edward L. Miles, Amy K. Snover, and Lara Whitely

www.cses.washington.edu/cig/

Design Criteria for a National Climate Service:

Insights from a RISA Program

Edward L. Miles, Amy K. Snover, and Lara Whitely Binder

Climate Impacts Group

Center for Science in the Earth System

JISAO, University of Washington

Seattle, WA 98195


Outline

Why a National Climate Service (NCS)?

What is a NCS?

What functions should it perform?

What services should it provide?

What performance metrics are to be employed?

How should it be designed? The Climate Impacts Group’s experience as a prototype of a regional NCS office

All questions answered from perspective of a RISA program of the NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) with 10 years experience.


Why a National Climate Service?

Why a climate service?

Growing awareness within research and resource management communities that climate variability and climate change are affecting natural and socioeconomic systems. These impacts vary from region to region given variations in climate patterns and natural/socioeconomic systems

Recognized need (and demand) for spatially-relevant research on climate and climate impacts. Demand for this information evidenced by (and due in part to) RISA work across the U.S.

Need for reliable and responsive technical support for the resource management community (if we are going to get broader use of forecasts)


Why a National Climate Service?

Why a climate service at the national scale?

Climate information is a public good (very important information for public natural resource management)

Need for a global observations network

Need to connect: – nationally/internationally organized climate variability and change research communities to place-based translation and delivery of climate information– basic and applied research on climate and climate impacts to operational entities


Why a National Climate Service? (cont’d)

Experience shows that climate forecasts alone (delta T, delta p) are only utilized by the very technically advanced *unless* forecasts are expressed in terms of impacts on resources

Also important to provide information about the linkages between climate variability and variations in natural resources

Every empirical study has shown that climate forecasts aren’t used to their full potential. Reasons include:– Lack of skill (can be interpreted as lack of transparency in tracking skill

on part of forecast provider);– Deeply embedded and widespread preference for deterministic

forecasts and discomfort with probabilistic forecasts (except in the case of climate change projections);

– Demands for finer spatial resolution, i.e., down to watershed scale.

(see Chagnon, Chagnon, and Chagnon, 1995 ; Pulwarty and Redmond, 1997; Callahan, Miles, and Fluharty, 1999; and Rayner, Lach, and Ingram, 2004, inter alia)


A national climate service is not a weather service and the forecast is not “…the thing wherewith we catch the attention of the king”. [with apologies to Shakespeare.]


What is a National Climate Service?

A national climate service (NCS) integrates

– climate observations, – research on climate dynamics and impacts, – outreach/decision support

at a global and regional scale to produce and deliver information on climate variability and change that is useful to decision-makers.

Stakeholders thought of as a continuously involved constituency.

Research should represent a balance between what stakeholders need for managing resources and what experts see as necessary for developing deeper understanding of the coupled climate/resource system.


What Functions Should a NCS Perform?

Organize and maintain an adequate observational system

– To track climate dynamics/impacts at national/regional scales. – Data sets produced with buy-in from stakeholders; would

facilitate co-production of knowledge in provision of services.

Perform basic & applied research on climate dynamics and impacts, with a focus on:

– Understanding and explaining interactions among climate, society, and natural resources;

– Identifying important climate-related vulnerabilities, opportunities; – Furthering the development of climate forecasts and regional

scale climate-based resource forecasts.


What Functions…?, cont’d.

Transition new products to NCS member agencies

– Including scenarios, climate and resource forecasts, decision tools, planning resources.

– Products developed by regional research teams through collaborations with research team, agencies, and other stakeholders

Design and maintain an operational delivery system

– Research teams transition new products to NCS agency members (e.g., NRCS) who decide whether to deliver the product themselves or transition it to the private sector.

Develop and maintain a continuing dialogue among research teams, member agencies, and stakeholders

– Focus on development, translation and delivery of information that users can use for planning and decision-making.


What Services Should a NCS Provide?

Clearinghouse and technical access point – for regionally-relevant information on climate, climate impacts,

and adaptation

Development of systematic data bases – with information relevant to specific regional needs.

Education – on climate impacts and use of climate information in decision-

making (e.g., via meetings and workshops)

Decision-support tools – facilitating use of climate information in near-term operations and

long-term planning


What Services cont’d

User access to climate and impacts experts – for technical assistance in use of climate information – to inform climate forecast community of their information needs

Researcher access to users – to help guide research direction

Represent regional climate needs/concerns in regional and national policy arenas– facilitate regional-national communication on NCS needs and

performance.


What Performance Metrics are to be Applied?

Degree of collaboration between: – Regional research teams and NCS member agencies– Regional research teams and observations component– NCS and regional stakeholders (users) [all NCS functions]

Relevance and quality of regional research efforts.

Relevance and quality of decision support and decision tools.

Evidence of impact on regional planning and decision-making by user communities.– Assessed via periodic detailed systematic investigations


How Should a National Climate Service be Designed?

Basic approach: the NOAA/CPO vision of regional components as basis for national climate service be implemented as an inter-agency partnership authorized and funded by U.S. Congress.

Approach recognizes that RISAs have demonstrated proof of concept:– RISAs have developed the capability to understand the

relationship between climate and natural resource variability and to make use of such information to add value to climate forecasts.

– RISAs have developed the capability to identify and evaluate adaptation strategies in response to perceived climate-based regional vulnerabilities is a matter of some urgency.


Regional Climate Impacts Assessment

Climate impacts research is retrospective, contextual, interdisciplinary & integrated.

Traditional research products are often not directly applicable to management decisions and decision-making environments. RISA strives to conduct and integrate research to inform “real world” choices.

Research Community

Resource Mgmt.

RISA

naturehumans

climate

CLIMATE IMPACTSSCIENCE


NCS Design, cont’d.

A partnership among Depts. of Commerce (NOAA = NWS, RISAs), Agriculture (USFS, NRCS), Interior (USGS, BOR, BLM), Health and Human Services (CDC), Defense (ACOE), Homeland Security (FEMA), EPA, Housing and Urban Development

Directed by Director of NOAA/Climate Program Office (CPO)

Interagency partnership will require explicit budgetary support to facilitate research planning and operations at the regional level. Requires an act of Congress.

Interagency unit provides coordination at Federal level and operational participation at regional level.– Interagency coordination expected over time to induce greater coordination among

state agencies.

At regional level, all stakeholders, public and private sectors included .

Regional working groups comprised of research teams and member agency field offices.


Regional offices could be grouped by major river basins and/or geographic areas with enough linkages to facilitate collaboration across sub-regional offices (e.g. Western States, New England States, Plains states)

Local, state, tribal, federal resource managers

Elected officials

Private sector resource managers

NGOs

Research community

General public

End Users

Regional Climate Service Centers

(RCSC)

National Climate Service (Fed Level)

Designing a National Climate Service

NOAA/CPO

Interior (USGS, BOR,

BLM)

EPAHHS (CDC)

Agriculture (USFS, NRCS)

Defense (ACOE)

Homeland Security (FEMA)

NOAA (NWS, RISA)

HUD

RCSC

USGS, BOR, BLM

EPACDC

USFS, NRCS

ACOE

FEMA NWS, RISA

HUD


The Climate Impacts Group: Implications for a Regional Climate Service Center

1995-2005


The Climate Impacts Group

Areas of study:

Water resources Salmon Forests Coasts [Agriculture, Human Health]

Objectives Increase regional resilience to climate variability and change

Produce science useful to (and used by!) the decision making community; requires close and sustained stakeholder interactions

First of 8 U.S. regional integrated assessment teams (RISAs).


Key Stakeholders

Federal Level: Bonneville Power

Administration NOAA Fisheries Service NOAA River Forecast

Center U.S. Army Corps of

Engineers U.S. Bureau of

Reclamation U.S. Congress USDA Natural Resource

Conservation Service U.S. Environmental

Protection Agency U.S. Fish and Wildlife

Service U.S. Geologic Survey

State/Tribal Level: CA, OR, ID Depts. of

Water Resources WA, OR, ID State

Governor’s Offices WA, OR, ID State

Legislatures WA Department of

Ecology WA Department of Fish

and Wildlife AK Department of Fish

and Game Columbia River Inter-

Tribal Fish Commission Northwest Indian

Fisheries Commission

Local/Other: Central Puget Sound

Water Suppliers' Forum City of Tualatin, OR King County, WA WA watershed planning

units Portland Water Bureau Puget Sound Clean Air

Agency Seattle City Light Seattle Public Utilities BC Hydro National Wildlife

Federation Northwest Power and

Conservation Council PNW news media


How Does CIG Support Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change?

Research

OutreachDecision-support

CIG Outreach:

Designed to develop (and maintain) ongoing relationships with the stakeholder community

Research:

Investigating sensitivity and vulnerability to climate variability and change

Provides the foundation for decision support and outreach activities

Decision-support tools:

Designed to facilitate use of climate information in operations and planning


Supporting Adaptation: Research

Research


CIG Outreach:


Research:






CIG’s Approach to Integrated Research

First vertical assessment, then horizontal

1. Understand the physical system, including predictability and uncertainty

2. Understand the managed system, i.e. the nature and consequences of human choices and activities

3. Understand the institutional context of these systems, e.g. processes, laws, constraints, decision calendars, and customs under which human choices are made

4. Work with regional stakeholders at all stages.


CIG Contributions to Regional Climate Impacts Science

Defining the PDO

Identifying ENSO and PDO impacts on PNW winter climate and key natural resources

Identifying 20th century trends on PNW temperature, precipitation, and snowpack

Extending the paleorecord for PNW climate, streamflow, forests, and summer sea surface temperatures in the Strait of Juan de Fuca

Defining and evaluating the potential impacts of global climate change on PNW climate and resources

Identifying barriers to effective use of climate information and characteristics of adaptive institutions


Supporting Adaptation: Decision Support Tools

Research


CIG Outreach:


Research:






CIG Contributions to Decision Support

Climate forecasts for use in resource management

– Long-lead (1 year) seasonal streamflow forecasts based on ENSO/PDO

– Long-lead (1 year) seasonal marine survival forecasts for Oregon coastal coho salmon

– Mid-term (6 month) municipal reservoir forecasts– Near-term (7-14 day) extreme weather risk forecasts

Climate change temperature, snowpack, precipitation, and streamflow scenarios

Optimization models for evaluating impacts of climate change on streamflow management


Recent Examples of CIG’s Influence on Operations and Policy…

County government departments in King County, WA reviewing policies and procedures to include preparation for climate change as a result of October ’05 climate change conference (1/06)

Joint Corps/CIG effort to develop national guidance for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on incorporating analysis of climate change impacts into Corps projects (’05-’06)

CIG commissioned by Puget Sound Action Team (part of the WA State Governor’s Office) to prepare a report on the projected impacts of climate change on Puget Sound (released Oct ’05)

Northwest Power and Conservation Council incorporating climate change streamflow scenarios into hydrologic planning tools and major planning documents (e.g., Fifth Northwest Electric Power and Conservation Plan) (’05)

CIG asked to participate on WA and OR advisory committees for West Coast Governors’ Global Warming Initiative and write a high-level briefing memorandum on PNW climate impacts for the governors’ offices (‘04)


Supporting Adaptation: Outreach

Research


CIG Outreach:


Research:






Outreach activities disseminate information, build stakeholder relationships, and allow for feedback on research needs, products, and services. Investment in outreach should not be overlooked. Interest in using climate information comes with increased understanding of impacts and research.

Promotes regional understanding of climate impacts in PNW resource management. Activities include:

– Workshops and meetings (4-5/year)– Presentations and briefings (75+/year)– One-on-one technical assistance (ex: watersheds)– Work with the local media– Web site development and maintenance– Graduate-level courses on climate impacts at UW

Outreach


CSES has established an important and valuable working relationship with local and national media

Hundreds of local and national news stories featuring CSES research, researchers since ‘97

– Major Seattle P-I special report on 11/13/03

– Stories in San Francisco Chronicle, Seattle P-I, Idaho Statesman, Albuquerque Journal, The Oregonian

Featured in radio, television programs (KPLU (88.5 FM), KZOK (102.5 FM), PBS’s The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer)

Work with the Media


A Sea Change in Perceptions

1995: Few managers saw role for climate info, recognized predictability of climate, or

possessed a conceptual framework for applying climate info

1997-98: El Niño and concomittant media attention stimulated widespread interest in

information about climate variability and in CIG

Most stakeholders unfamiliar with potential impacts of climate change and unprepared to use such information

2001: Senior-level water resources managers recognize climate change as a potentially

significant threat to regional water resources; acknowledge climate change information as critical to future planning

2001/2: 50-year drought brings intense media attention to issue and CIG’s work public & private pressure on State agencies to include CC impacts in long-term planning

significant involvement of CIG in multiple efforts

2003 to present day: Continued significant breakthroughs with stakeholder groups

Dramatic change in stakeholder perceptions of value and relevance of information about climate variability and change…


Implications for a Regional Climate Service Center

Developing the institutional capacity to provide climate services is neither quick nor easy. Requires:

– Defining the types of climate information that are most useful for the specified applications

– Producing very specific, mutually defined products

– Building trust with stakeholders over time

– Developing an integrated research and outreach team for continued innovation


Conclusions

A NCS is essential for developing national capacity to understand and manage climate impacts

A NCS integrates observations, research, outreach, and operations

A NCS is most effectively achieved as a Federal interagency partnership

The regional level is most effective for integrating research and decision support with stakeholder needs

The RISAs have shown the way

Documents

Www.cses.washington.edu/cig/ Design Criteria for a National Climate Service: Insights from a RISA Program Edward L. Miles, Amy K. Snover, and Lara Whitely