www.tyndall.manchester.ac.ukDr John Broderick, KT Fellow www.energy.manchester.ac.uk

Shale gas in a low carbon future.Golden age or gilded cage?

“Gas is green” rhetoric“As the UK moves to low carbon and renewable energy sources, natural gas

will be an important transition fuel.”

Cuadrilla Resources 2012, About natural gas, emphasis added

“We see natural gas as a key part of the lower-carbon economy as it is a plentiful resource that releases less CO2 than other fossil fuels when burned.”

BP 2012, Our programme of action on climate change, emphasis added

No climate benefit if shale gas emissions are additional

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

Year

Billi

on to

nnes

CO

2Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

Year

Billi

on to

nnes

CO

2

Rio

Eart

h Su

mm

it

UN

Clim

ate

chan

ge p

anel

est

ablis

hed

Cop

enha

gen

Acco

rd

Rio

+ 2

0

Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

Year

Billi

on to

nnes

CO

2

Glob

al

eco

nom

ic

dow

ntur

n

… yet emissions have continued to rise (~6% in 2010, ~3% 2011 & 12)

Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

Year

Billi

on to

nnes

CO

2

… so what of future emissions?

Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

Year

Billi

on to

nnes

CO

2

Energy system design lives (lock-in)

Supply technologies 25-50 year

Large scale infrastructures

Built environment

Aircraft and ships ~30 years

Financial commitments to fossil fuel investments

30-100 years

Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

Year

Billi

on to

nnes

CO

2

~3000GtCO2 for 2000-2050

~5000GtCO2 for 2000-2100

… i.e. a 4°C – 6°C rise between 2050 & 2100

Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)

… and assuming current mitigation plans

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

… outside chance of 2°C

Year

Billi

on to

nnes

CO

2Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

If shale gas is a transition, what is it a transition to, and when?

Year

Billi

on to

nnes

CO

2

… building low/zero carbon energy supply needs to begin now

Too early for supply

Demand

Supply & demand

Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)

Two impossible futuresA radical change in our economies or...

“When I look at this [CO2] data, the trend is perfectly in line with a temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius, which would have devastating consequences for the planet.”

Fatih Birol - IEA chief economist

4ºC global mean surface temperature implies 5ºC - 6ºC global land mean

… & likely increase ºC on the hottest days of:

6ºC - 8ºC in China

8ºC - 10ºC in Central Europe

10ºC -12ºC in New York

info.energy@manchester.ac.ukwww.energy.manchester.ac.ukjohn.broderick@manchester.ac.uk www.tyndall.manchester.ac.uk

“Far from running out of fossil fuels, we have more than enough to fry the planet” – Dieter Helm (2012)

Source: IEA, WEO 2012 ©OECD/IEA 2012

Budget2012-2035

Budget2012-2050

Current ProvedFossil Reserves

From: D. Hawkins, NRDC, Can CCS Help Protect the Climate?, Nov 2012

Financial Risk: Unburnable Carbon

A precautionary approach means only 20% of total fossil fuel reserves can be burnt to 2050. As a result the global economy already faces the prospect of assets becoming stranded, with the problem only likely to get worse if current investment trends continue - in effect, a carbon bubble.

James Leaton, Carbon Tracker

...this report shows that even a scenario for [CCS] deployment that is currently considered optimistic would only make a marginal difference to the amount of fossil fuels that can be consumed by 2050.

Lord Stern, Foreword

Relative GHG Intensity JISEA study (Logan et

al 2012) echoed Weber et al (2012)

» Indistinguishable GHG footprint if well managed.

» Upstream emissions potentially substantial

» Energy systems likely more significant

Growth 3.5% p.aPeak 2025

Reduction 7% p.a. (2x Stern!)

Anderson-Bows: 2°C budget, CO2 onlyhttp://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/20.full.pdf+html?sid=423cdf2d-23a1-4170-b4b6-74e87f173156

Budget premised on 37% chance of exceeding 2°C GMT rise

Anderson-Bows: 2°C budget, CO2 onlyhttp://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/20.full.pdf+html?sid=423cdf2d-23a1-4170-b4b6-74e87f173156

Budget premised on 37% chance of exceeding 2°C GMT rise

Peak ~2010

Reduction ∞% p.a.

Anderson-Bows: 2°C budget, CO2 onlyhttp://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/20.full.pdf+html?sid=423cdf2d-23a1-4170-b4b6-74e87f173156

Budget premised on 37% chance of exceeding 2°C GMT rise