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Worldwide Trends in Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Abatement Technologies and Policies
Peter Mock 1st European Automotive Summit November 9, 2010 (Brussels)
The International Council on Clean Transportation Top 10 vehicle markets account for 85% of global sales
“The mission of the ICCT is to dramatically improve the environmental performance and efficiency of cars, trucks, buses, and transportation systems in order to protect and improve public health, the environment and quality of life.”
Promoting global best practices for fuel consumption, fuel quality and pollution reduction technologies
Car and Truck Sales 2008:
Data source: Ward’s Automotive
Slide 2
Slide 3
On the way to de-carbonize transport Learning from the success story conventional pollutants
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2030 2050 2050
abated
Gt
CO
2e
q p
er
ye
ar
Road transport
Power
Air&Sea transport
Industry
Buildings
Waste
Agriculture
Forestry
-80% average
-95% road transport
1990 level
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Mileage [vehicle-km]
CO2 [t]
CO [t]
HC [t]
PM [t]
NOx
Source: European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050 (McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve; IEA WEO 2009; US EPA; EEA; Team analysis)
Source: TREMOD model (Germany)
Slide 4
Introduction Technologies to reduce GHG emissions
Policies to drive GHG emission reductions Conclusions
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Percents are approximate, based on energy losses for vehicles on the combined U.S. city and highway drive cycles. Sources: Kromer and Heywood, 2007 and U.S. EPA, 2010 http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml
What are the technological options? Modern vehicles are generally 15-20% efficient with potential for improvement
There are many energy losses in an automobile Different technologies address different losses Many new technologies are just beginning to be deployed by automakers
Slide 5
Data source: EPA, NHTSA, CARB Interim Joint Technical Assessment Report: Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards for Model Years 2017-2025 Consumer payback calculation assumptions: Baseline fuel consumption 6 l/100 km, fuel price 1.30 €/l, annual mileage 15,000 km
Technology cost / benefit estimates Major incremental efficiency improvement comes at modest cost
Slide 6
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 2017-2025 rulemaking estimates:
Hybrid
Stop-start
Variable valve timing
6+ speed transmission
Turbocharging
Direct injection
Advanced lightweight materials
Cooled EGR
Efficient accessories
2020 2025
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
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Veh
icle
pri
ce in
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ase
(rela
tive t
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aselin
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eh
icle
) [$
2008]
CO2 emission decrease (relative to 2008 baseline vehicle)
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$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
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0% 20% 40% 60%
Veh
icle
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2008]
CO2 emission decrease (relative to 2008 baseline vehicle)
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2 years
4 years
consumer
payback period
Data source: EPA, NHTSA, CARB Interim Joint Technical Assessment Report: Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards for Model Years 2017-2025 Consumer payback calculation assumptions: Baseline fuel consumption 6 l/100 km, fuel price 1.30 €/l, annual mileage 15,000 km
Technology cost / benefit estimates Major incremental efficiency improvement comes at modest cost
Slide 7
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 2017-2025 rulemaking estimates:
Hybrid
Stop-start
Variable valve timing
6+ speed transmission
Turbocharging
Direct injection
Advanced lightweight materials
Cooled EGR
Efficient accessories
2020 2025
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Electric drive expected to increase in the long-run But most studies still see over 90% use of petroleum fuels up to 2020-25
Slide 8
ICE
Slide 9
Lightweight materials offer great potential Recent studies demonstrate possibilities for body weight reduction
Material composition of lightweight vehicle body designs:
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RMI Revolution
Lotus (High Development)
Volkswagen /
SuperlightCar
Lotus (Low Development)
Reference
Body composition
Mild steel High strength steels Aluminum Magnesium Plastic/composite
16%
39%
42%
body
weight
reduction
57%
10% weight reduction = 6.5% fuel consumption reduction
Source: National Academy of Sciences (NAS), 2010, values compared to MY 2008-2009 TT: tractor-trailer (Class 8); Box: straight box truck (Class 3-6); Bucket: straight truck with utility bucket (Class 3-6); Refuse: refuse hauling truck (Class 8); Bus: transit bus (Class 7-8); Coach: motor coach (Class 7-8); Class 2b: pick-up trucks and vans
Significant potential for heavy-duty vehicles National Academy of Sciences study shows close to 50% reduction
Potential fuel savings for new vehicles in 2015-2020:
Slide 10
Slide 11
Introduction Technologies to reduce GHG emissions
Policies to drive GHG emission reductions Conclusions
[1] Based on 3% annual fleet GHG emissions reduction between 2017 and 2025 in the September 30th NOI. [2] Based on 6% annual fleet GHG emissions reduction between 2017 and 2025 in the September 30th NOI. [3] China’s target reflects gasoline fleet scenario. If including other fuel types, the target will be lower.
Regulatory developments worldwide US, China and South Korea are making significant progress
Current CO2 emissions and future targets worldwide:
Slide 12
Source: ICCT internal new vehicle databases
Vehicle fleets are different worldwide Reducing vehicle weight and engine power as an option to reduce CO2
Slide 13
Europe 1,300 kg 3.9 m2 80 kW USA 1,740 kg 4.5 m2 160 kW China 1,250 kg 3.8 m2 80 kW India 1,050 kg 3.2 m2 60 kW Japan 1,080 kg 3.7 m2 80 kW Mexico 1,690 kg 4.1 m2 120 kW
Cumulative sales:
Source: ICCT (2010) Size or Mass? - The Technical Rationale for Selecting Size as an Attribute for Vehicle Efficiency Standards
Any standard should fully capture lightweight A weight-based standard discourages application of lightweight materials
Slide 14
Conclusions Europe as a model for other regions / countries?!
Slide 15
Long-term reduction targets require de-carbonization of transport 60% or more improvement of conv. vehicles feasible at modest costs
Electric vehicles can help to improve further in the post-2020 era
Europe has been the pace setter for GHG reductions in the past
But other countries / regions are catching up
Need for technology neutral GHG emission standards, also fully capturing benefits from application of lightweight materials
Europe as a model for other regions / countries … ?!
Washington DC, San Francisco, Brussels www.theicct.org +1 202 534 1600 www.twitter.com/TheICCT