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World: Major currencies are strengthening vs. the greenback in Q4Performance of top major currencies vs. the USD
Bloomberg
Down vs. 25 of 31
18
32
45
47
49
56
74
81
108
116
128
143
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Jan 80 - Jul 81
Aug 57 - Apr 60
Feb 45 - Nov 48
Dec 69 - Nov 73
Jul 53 - Aug 57
Nov 48 - Jul 53
Nov 73 - Jan 80
Mar 01 - Dec 07
Jul 81 - Jul 90
Apr 60 - Dec 69
Jul 90 - Mar 01
Dec 07 - ….
NBF Economics and Strategy (http://www.nber.org/cycles.html)
U.S.: The longest business cycle on recordDuration of economic cycles since 1945 (peak to peak)
Months
Average of 11 cycles since 1945:
68.5 months
14,800
15,200
15,600
16,000
16,400
16,800
17,200
17,600
18,000
18,400
18,800
19,200
19,600
20,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
U.S.: Perspective on the current business cycleActual vs. potential* real GDP
$ billions
* As calculated by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) - NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Fed of St-Louis)
Potential GDP
Actual GDP
Peak
RecessionTrough
Recovery
Expansion
Mature
phase
A
BC
D
E
F
Recoveries Expansions Mature Phases Current Phase
Total 22.4% 10.8% 14.0% 12.4%
Oil & Gas 57.8% 6.9% 23.5% -4.4%
Basic Materials 23.3% 10.4% 13.3% 4.3%
Gold mining 20.0% 12.3% 9.6% 5.3%
Metals and mines 12.2% 10.4% 20.8% -3.5%
Industrials 34.6% 9.9% 17.6% 11.8%
Consumer discretionary 29.2% 13.9% 8.7% 16.1%
Consumer Staples 8.2% 15.5% 17.7% 5.5%
Health Care 6.9% 11.8% 16.4% 11.9%
Financials 22.3% 16.8% 11.7% 11.3%
Banks 29.3% 17.4% 6.2% 9.2%
Insurance 11.1% 18.3% 16.2% 8.2%
Real Estate 11.6% 18.0% 13.9% 11.8%
IT 12.9% 7.5% 12.6% 21.7%
Telecoms 11.9% 18.8% 13.9% 7.9%
Utilities 24.0% 15.4% 13.3% 11.6%*Recess ions dates are those of the NBER
NBF Economics and Strategy
Average S&P 500 performance by sectors in different phases of the cycle
since 1973
(Total return indices, annualized growth rates)
Mature phases are second most favourable for equities
S&P/TSX composite index: quarterly performance (total return)
Bks 12.5 gld 8.1 HC 13.4 Engy 6.6 HC 46.7 IT 10.2 Engy 15.8 HC 31.4 gld 19.3 HC 49.1 IT 14.3 Util 10.1 IT 9.9
Fin 11.5 Util 7.3 Ind 6.1 Bks 4.7 Bks 6.7 RE 0.5 HC 14.3 Ind 5.6 C. Stpl. 5.7 IT 26.0 gld 13.5 gld 9.6 Mat 5.1
Engy 7.0 C. Disc. 7.0 C. Disc. 4.8 C. Disc. 4.7 C. Stpl. 6.2 Bks -2.2 IT 10.9 Bks 4.8 Com. 2.0 RE 17.5 Util 5.4 RE 8.5 Ind 4.9
Ind 5.3 IT 7.0 Util 2.6 Fin 4.5 RE 6.0 Ind -2.6 Ind 9.4 RE 3.9 Mat 0.9 Util 16.1 Mat 5.4 C. Stpl. 5.8 gld 4.7
TSX 4.5 Mat 6.1 Com. 2.5 TSX 3.7 Fin 5.7 C. Disc. -2.9 Mat 7.9 Fin 3.8 Util -1.3 Engy 15.6 Ind 5.1 Fin 5.2 Engy 3.6
C. Disc. 1.5 Ind 5.3 IT 2.2 Mat 3.3 Mat 5.0 Fin -3.5 gld 7.0 IT 3.0 RE -6.7 Ind 15.3 C. Disc. 4.6 Bks 4.3 TSX 2.6
RE 0.1 Com. 5.0 C. Stpl. 1.7 IT 3.2 C. Disc. 4.5 Mat -4.3 TSX 6.8 Com. 2.4 TSX -10.1 TSX 13.3 Fin 3.5 IT 3.4 Util 2.3
Util -0.4 RE 4.7 RE 1.2 Ind 2.7 TSX 4.5 TSX -4.5 C. Disc. 6.6 TSX -0.6 IT -10.3 C. Stpl. 10.6 Bks 3.4 C. Disc. 2.7 Com. 2.0
IT -0.5 Bks 4.6 Fin -0.9 Com. 2.3 Ind 4.3 Util -5.9 RE 4.7 C. Stpl. -0.9 Fin -11.3 Fin 10.4 TSX 2.6 TSX 2.5 Fin 1.5
C. Stpl. -1.5 Fin 3.5 TSX -1.6 RE -1.0 Com. 4.3 C. Stpl. -5.9 C. Stpl. 3.5 Util -1.6 Bks -11.6 Com. 10.0 C. Stpl. 1.7 Com. 2.0 Bks -0.4
Com. -2.8 C. Stpl. 2.6 Bks -1.9 gld -1.7 IT 3.4 Com. -6.7 Fin 2.1 Engy -5.7 C. Disc. -11.9 C. Disc. 9.8 Com. -0.2 Engy 1.2 HC -0.8
Mat -6.2 TSX 2.4 gld -6.3 Util -1.9 Util 2.6 gld -7.2 Com. 1.9 C. Disc. -8.0 Ind -13.4 Mat 8.5 RE -1.4 Mat 0.4 C. Disc. -0.8
gld -16.4 Engy -5.5 Mat -6.4 C. Stpl. -2.7 Engy 0.7 Engy -9.4 Bks 1.8 Mat -12.9 Engy -17.3 Bks 8.0 Engy -2.8 Ind -1.5 C. Stpl. -1.7
HC -28.6 HC -10.1 Engy -8.3 HC -10.3 gld -1.6 HC -13.5 Util -0.4 gld -20.9 HC -35.3 gld 5.7 HC -9.3 HC -30.0 RE -3.7
Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Refinitiv)
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