World Energy Outlook 2008 Key Graphs

8/7/2019 World Energy Outlook 2008 Key Graphs

1/12

OECD/IEA - 2008

KEY GRAPHS


2/12

OECD/IEA - 2008

World primary energy demand in the

Reference Scenario

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mtoe

Oil

Coal

Gas

Biomass

Nuclear

Hydro

Other

renewables

World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030an average rate of increase

of 1.6% per yearwith coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise


3/12

OECD/IEA - 2008

Incremental primary energy demand

in the Reference Scenario, 2006-2030

- 500 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000

China

India

OECD

Middle East

Other Asia

E. Europe/Eurasia

Latin America

Africa

Mtoe

Coal

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Other

The increase in Chinas energy demand to 2030 the result of its sheer market size &

stronger economic growth prospects dwarfs that of all other countries & regions


4/12

OECD/IEA - 2008

Change in oil demand by region in the

Reference Scenario, 2007-2030

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10

China

Middle East

India

Other Asia

Latin America

E. Europe/Eurasia

Africa

OECD North America

OECD Europe

OECD Pacific

mb/d

All of the growth in global oil demand comes from non-OECD, with China contributing

43%, the Middle East 20% and other emerging Asian economies most of the rest


5/12

OECD/IEA - 2008

Energy investment in the Reference

Scenario, 2007-2030

Cumulative investment in energy-supply infrastructure of $26.3 trillion is needed, but the

credit squeeze could delay spending especially in the power sector

Power

generation

50%

Transmission

& distribution

50%

Mining91%

Shipping &

ports

9%

Exploration and

development80%

Refining

16%

Shipping

4%

Exploration &

development

61%

LNG chain8%

Transmission

& distribution

31%

Power52%

$13.6 trillion

Oil24%

$6.3 trillion

Gas21%

$5.5 trillion

Coal3%

$0.7 trillion

Biofuels


6/12

OECD/IEA - 2008

Incremental world fossil-fuel

production in the Reference Scenario

Most of the incremental oil & gas comes from national companies in non-OECD countries,

resulting in major structural changes in the energy industry & increased imports in the OECD

0

5

10

15

20

25

1980-2007 2007-2030 1980-2006 2006-2030 1980-2006 2006-2030

mb/d Non-OECD

OECD

- 200

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

Bcm

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

Mtce

Oil CoalGas


7/12 OECD/IEA - 2008

Average observed oilfield decline rate

by year of first production

The production-weighted average decline rate worldwide is projected to rise from 6.7% in

2007 to 8.6% in 2030 as productions shifts to smaller oilfields, which tend to decline quicker

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Pre-1970s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000 - 2007

OPEC

Non-OPEC


8/12 OECD/IEA - 2008

World oil production

in the Reference Scenario

Production reaches 104 mb/d in 2030, requiring 64 mb/d of gross capacity additions six

times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia to meet demand growth & counter decline

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

mb/d Natural gas liquids

Non-conventional oil

Crude oil - additional EOR

Crude oil - fields yet to be

foundCrude oil - fields yet to bedeveloped

Crude oil - currentlyproducing fields


9/12 OECD/IEA - 2008

World oil & gas production by type of

company in the Reference Scenario

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2007 2015 2030

mb/d

0

750

1 500

2 250

3 000

3 750

4 500

2006 2015 2030

Bcm

NOCs Private companies

Oil Gas

Close to 80% of the projected increase in output of both oil & gas comes from

national companies on the assumption that investment is forthcoming


10/12 OECD/IEA - 2008

Energy-related CO2 emissions in the

Reference Scenario

97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030 comes from non-OECD

countries three-quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Gigatonnes International

marine bunkersand aviation

Non-OECD - gas

Non-OECD - oil

Non-OECD - coal

OECD - gas

OECD - oil

OECD - coal


11/12 OECD/IEA - 2008

Reductions in energy-related CO2emissions in the climate-policy scenarios

While technological progress is required to achieve some emissions reductions, increased

deployment of existing low-carbon technologies accounts for most of the CO2 savings

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gigatonnes

Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario

550Policy

Scenario

450Policy

ScenarioCCS

Renewables & biofuels

Nuclear

Energy efficiency


12/12 OECD/IEA - 2008

World greenhouse-gas emissions

While energy-related CO2 will continue to dominate, there is strong potential to reduce other

emissions through improved efficiency, better farm management & reduced gas flaring

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2020 2030 2020 2030 2030

Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario 450 PolicyScenario

GigatonnesofCO2-equivalent

Energy CO2F-gases

N2O

Methane

Industry CO2Land use CO2

Documents

World Energy Outlook 2008 Key Graphs