World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder World Data Center for Meteorology, Asheville Communicating Climate Systems Variability with the Powers

World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder

World Data Center for Meteorology, Asheville

Communicating Climate Systems Variability with

the Powers of Ten

The Development and Evaluation of the Climate

Time Line Information Tool



Public Understanding of Climate Change

• 88% of the public has heard of global warming

Data from the 2001 NSF survey

•Of those, 77% believed that “increased carbon dioxide and other gases released into the atmosphere will, if unchecked, lead to global warming and an increase in average temperatures.” •86% of all respondents feel it should be treated as serious or very serious problem.



“The issue of climate change respects no border. Its effects cannot be reined in by an army nor advanced by any ideology. Climate change, with its potential to impact every corner of the world, is an issue that must be addressed by the world……..”

President George W. BushRemarks from June 11, 2001 speech

“(But) we do not know how much effect natural fluctuations in climate may have had on warming. We do not know how much our climate could, or will change in the future. We do not know how fast change will occur, or even how some of our actions could impact it.”



Public Understanding of Climate Change

•70% lack understanding of basic scientific processes•49% don’t know that it takes the Earth one year to orbit the sun

•Environment not a major concern-- ranked 16th

•Only 31 percent knew that drinking water is the primary method that chemicals and minerals enter the human body (Roper)

•13 percent were aware that less than 1 percent of all the water in the world is fresh (Roper)

….but agree it will be #1 in 25 years (Gallup)



How to Improve Understanding of Climate

Variability?

•CIRES Innovative Research Grant as opportunity to experiment

•Provide interdisciplinary approach to climate change information

•NOAA is a treasure trove of climate and environmental information

•Looking for ways to integrate paleoclimate research and time scales with modern research and time scales

•Use “Powers of Ten” exponents for temporal scaling



NOAA Education & Outreach

Goal: Help meet NOAA’s commitment to Education and Outreach and to improve scientific/climate literacy

Education Committee now deciding on fixed percentage (like NASA) that will be allocated for EPO

56.NOAA should require that a fixed percentage of program funds be dedicated to the development of effective education and outreach

strategies.

i.e. Education & Public Outreach



CTL Development Timeline

2001 2002

Develop Proposal for CIRES

IRG- Submit April 2

Waiting…

Develop & Iterate

Conceptual Framework

Develop & Iterate

Technical Infrastructur

eand Content

Poster Session at AGU- December

Develop & Iterate

Technical Infrastructur

e and Content

Conduct Evaluation- April-

May

Evaluation Analysis- June-July

Develop Evaluation

Plan & Receive

OK

Receive award!

Developing and Testing the CTL Prototype

Content

Tech

Content

Tech

XYou are

here



Conceptual Development

Exponential Scaling- Log 10

From FSU Molecular Expressions

But really only focus on first

105 years



Powers of TenTemporal Scaling

J. Murray Mitchell, Jr.

An Overview of Climatic Variability and Its Causal Mechanisms - Quaternary Research (1976)



Varying Time ScalesConcept- developed by Dr. David M. Anderson

One Day

One Year

Ten Year

s

100 Year

s

1,000

Years

1 Million Years

1 Billion Years

4.5 Billion Years Ago

Earth Formed

Interactive Web version - developed by Dan Kowal



Technical Development

Headed by Dan Kowal- National Geophysical Data Center/CIRES



Content Development

Need to separate the linear (past events) from the non-linear (cycles, patterns and the science involved). Use matrix to frame content, then develop and review content.



Tour of Climate Time Line Information Tool

http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/



Getting the Word Out(Marketing)

June 14, 2002

Use list serves and informal networks to invite feedback of proto-type.



EvaluationAudiences

•Undergraduates

•High School

•Middle School

•ExpertsInstruments & Protocols

•Surveys (online and paper)

•Interviews

•Observations

•Comments/Feedback

University of Colorado Grad Students from CLEAR Team

•Abide by CU Human Research Committee guidelines



Evaluation Results•Accessibility good in general-- some problems with low bandwidth users (high school computer labs).•Increased understanding of climate science, climate and human history, the forces that drive climate variability, and the relationship between climate and human history.

•High school and middle school students say they learned “nothing” during short visit, but test scores improve between pre and post.

•100% of the undergraduate quiz scores increased average of 42%. Well suited for this audience.



Evaluation Results•Experts found the site to be clear and organized, a useful resource, but were split as to whether the site was easy to use and navigate and whether the links were helpful. •Experts identified several areas that need more information or coverage, esp. global warming

Overall message: On the right track... and room for improvement!

“The CTL website appears to be an excellent learning tool and

certainly provides in-depth information on our climate. It is evident that a lot of thought and work went into creating

this website, and the effort to provide this kind of tool to high

school and undergraduate students, and the public as

well, is commendable.”

Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher

•“All of the suggestions below include ways you could make the content a bit more comprehensive…” (EPA)



Instructional Design Assessment Conducted by

Lucie Sommer•A "database" of climate related resources, organized by a power of ten time scale. The learning context in which this database might be employed has not been defined nor has the intended audience. •Need to better define teaching/learning audience, contexts and objectives. Some organizational confusion between “science” and “history”.

•Revising the site's content organization system and clarifying learning objectives important. Parallel database and guided inquiry activities.•Graphic design issues interfere with "learning”. (True in 99% of faculty driven projects.) Solution: hire graphic design expert.



Next Steps •Surveying and analyzing teaching/learning needs and assets •Surveying and analyzing technology systems and support •Discussing and writing overall goals for project •Drafting a revised content outline for "database" •Collecting diverse feedback on draft outline •Researching and compiling shared learning objectives for topics within content database •Creating content outlines for topics, defining subtopics•Identifying shared teaching/learning needs (specific to content topics) •Writing a list of desired teaching/learning outcomes

DESIGN TASKS



•Identifying individuals to develop teaching/learning activities •Selecting appropriate teaching/learning methods & strategies •Drafting design plans & collecting feedback on draft designs•Adding additional content topics as needed •Finalizing content outline for database content•Redesigning navigation/organization system for project •Collecting feedback on nav/org system revisions •Programming navigation/organization system for project •Programming demonstration templates •Writing discipline related content•Entering original and borrowed content into project

Next StepsDEVELOPMENT TASKS



•Designing and programming page layout/color scheme for screens •Creating/editing original still and animated graphics •Researching/obtaining relevant graphics from outside sources •Updating group members on project needs/status, coordinating design/development efforts •Testing for technical flaws, troubleshooting technical difficulties •Revising/maintaining project in future-- what’s needed

Next StepsDEVELOPMENT TASKS


World Data Center for Meteorology, Asheville http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/

Documents

World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder World Data Center for Meteorology, Asheville Communicating Climate Systems Variability with the Powers