Paleoclimatology: The role of Pre-Instrumental Data in Understanding Reef Stress

C. Mark Eakin World Data Center for PaleoclimatologyNOAA National Climatic Data CenterBoulder, Colorado

with Andrea Grottoli, University of Pennsylvania, andRobert Halley, U.S. Geological Survey

Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

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Many Timescales of Coral Reef Data

Paleo data

Historical DataIn Situ / Satellite Data

from:Near-real-time data

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Paleoclimatic Records

Why Paleoclimatic Records? Available Data Coming Soon Challenges

Why Paleoclimatic Records? Available Data Coming Soon Challenges

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The question is not if atmospheric CO2 will reach double preindustrial levels (to 560 ppm), but when.

From Wigley, 2000

2xCO2

Past Climate Change

CO2 levels have not exceeded 350 ppm since the Miocene (~24 my ago) -- when coral/algal reef development increased

2001 CO2

~370 ppm

Petit et al. 1999

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Is Recent Warming Unusual?

Recent warm decades unprecedented in last 1000 years

After Mann et al. 1999

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1998 Bleaching

1997-1998 Global Mass Bleaching Event

1997 Bleaching

From Goreau (1999)

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What Does the Future Hold

The last 1000 years compared to IPCC 2000 scenarios

After Bradley 2000

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What Global Climate Changes Influence Reefs?

CO2 Increase

Temperature Increase (ENSO) Sea Level Rise Changes in Storminess, Storm Tracks Hydrologic Cycle Changes

Paleoenvironmental data can provide information on most of these

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Paleoclimatic Records

Why Paleoclimatic Records? Available Data Coming Soon Down the Road Challenges

Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

WDC-Paleo Data Holdings

Coral Data

Paleoclimatic Data Sites US Global

Tree Rings 1081 2231Pollen 474 1424Plant Macrofossils 55 314Corals 2 85Ice Cores 1 33Borehole Data 133 837Fauna 219 220Insecta 20 27Paleolimnology 13 29Paleoceanography 19 1428Other Paleo Data 1 8

Total 2018 6636

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/corals.html

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Warming Prevalent in Oceans

The graph shows a summary of annual resolution coral 18O isotope records, normalized to the 1923-1980 period (thick line denotes 7-year smooth ).

The data show trends consistent with warmer/wetter conditions throughout the tropics.

(after Bradley et al. 2003)

1600 1700 1800 1900 2000Year A.D.

1. Malindi

2. Seychelles

3. Abrolhos

4. AbrahamReef

5. Madang

6. NewCaledonia

7. Vanuatu

8. Nauru

9. Tarawa

10. Maiana

11. Kiritimati

12. Urvina Bay

13. Chiriqui

14. Clipperton

15. Cebu

16. Aqaba

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Reconstructing Ocean Temperature

Paleoclimatic Data Provides High Fidelity of Reconstructions of SST

Long reconstructions critical to understanding Decadal-to-Centennial Variability

After Evans et al. (2000) Paleoceanography, 15

1st EOF of Paleo Reconstruction from Corals

1st EOF of Instrumental SST Anomalies

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Reconstructing Ocean Temperature

Example of reconstruction showing 1828 El Niño (Very Strong in Quinn and Neal 1992 dataset)

Data set available for 1800-present

After Evans et al. (2000) Paleoceanography, 15

1828 El Niño from coral records

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199519981999

Widespread bleaching in Belize(from Aronson and Precht 1997, 2001)

1999

Paleoecological Data Reveal Catastrophic, Unprecedented Bleaching

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Widespread bleaching in Belize(from Aronson and Precht 1997, 2001)

Community change unique in last 3000 years

Paleoecological Data Reveal Catastrophic, Unprecedented Bleaching

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Accessing the Data

Easy access to paleodata is now possible through a variety of NOAA sources.

Tropical Paleoclimatic Data Currently in the World Data Center for

Paleoclimatology www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/corals.html

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Data Access Tools: WebMapperAt www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleoAccess Metadata, download data and plots

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Coral DataIce Core DataTree Ring Data

Borehole Data

Data Access Tools: GIS

http://map1.ngdc.noaa.gov/

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Data Access Tools: CoRIS

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Paleoclimatic Records

Why Paleoclimatic Records? Available Data Coming Soon Challenges

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NOAA Coral Reef Watch Paleodata: Florida Keys

Molasses Reef

Looe Key

South Florida

Eakin, Swart, Quinn, Dodge, Halley (in progress)

Extending instrumental data back in time

New data will be available in 2004

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NOAA Coral Reef Watch Paleodata: Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands

Eakin, Swart, Quinn, Dodge, Halley (in progress)

Caribbean Salinity Experiment (CASE)

tracking of water circulation and inputs from the sub-tropical Atlantic Gyre, cross equatorial thermohaline transport, and the temporal/spatial extent of the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) in the Caribbean.

Nova Southeastern University (NSU), the University of Miami, and the University of South Florida

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Millennial-Scale Records

Year

18O

Coral Record from Palmyra

After Cobb (in press), Nature

War

mer

, wet

ter

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Millennial-Scale Records

Year

18O

Composite Coral Record from Palmyra

After Cobb (in press), Nature

War

mer

, wet

ter

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Paleoclimatic Records

Why Paleoclimatic Records? Available Data Coming Soon Challenges:

Detecting Past Bleaching Events

Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching WorkshopHalley and Hudson (unpublished)

Detecting Past Bleaching Events

Comparing Fluorescence Markers to Growth Bands to identify loss of bands due to bleaching

Looe Key August 6-10, 2002

Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching WorkshopHalley and Hudson (unpublished)

Data for Biscayne National Park show no signs of bleaching between 1878-1986

Suggests widespread coral bleaching is a phenomenon unique to the past two decades

Comparing Fluorescence Markers to Growth Bands to identify loss of bands due to bleaching

Detecting Past Bleaching Events

Looe Key August 6-10, 2002

Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching WorkshopGrottoli et al (unpublished)

13C and 18O in coral skeleton

1

3C

18O

Natural bleaching event in Kaneohe Bay, Hawaii August 1996

Good News:Preliminary evidence suggests

bleaching may cause changes in coral skeletal carbon isotope

Bad news: Changes in oxygen isotope

could interfere with corresponding temperature estimates

Detecting Past Bleaching Events

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Detecting Past Bleaching Events

Burr (unpublished)

TRACE METALS

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

Ag Al Cd Co Cu K Mn Se

METALS

AM

OU

NT

(P

PM

)

BLEACHED UNBLEACHED

*** ******* *** ****** **

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Detecting Past Bleaching Events

Burr (unpublished)

TRACE METALS

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

Ag Al Cd Co Cu K Mn Se

METALS

AM

OU

NT

(P

PM

)

BLEACHED UNBLEACHED

*** ******* *** ****** **

Corals and zooxanthellae produce antioxidant enzymes in response to oxidative stress of high temperatures

These enzymes use Cu, Ag and Se in scavenging toxic oxygen

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Detecting Past Bleaching Events

Burr (unpublished)

Bleached

20Xscale bars 500, Porites divericata

Unbleached

20X

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Paleoclimatic Records

Value of Paleoclimatic Records Data: Many Available and More Coming Overcoming the Challenges Funding Needs:

More records from locations of management interest

Research funds to overcome challenges

Summary

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Thanks to A. Strong, J. Kleypas, A. Grottoli, R. Aronson, S. Burr, and R. Halley for presentation materials.