R E S T R I C T E D

ANNEX I to R e p o r t N o. AS-85a

X ~ U

This report was prepared for use within the Bank. It may not be publishednor may it be quoted as representing the Bank's views. The Bank accepts noresponsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the contents of the report.

INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT

DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMING AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

IN PAKISTAN

ANNEX I

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND PROSPECTS

May 12, 1961

Department of OperationsSouth Asia and Middle East

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

4.762 rupees = U.S. $1.001 rupee = U.S. $0.211 million rupees = U.S. $210,0001 billion rupees = U.S. $210 million

ANEX I

PA KISTANAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND PROSPECTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No,

2 MApSI. INTRODUCTION 1

East Pakistan 1West Pakistan 2

II. THE FIRST FIVE-YEAR PLAN 4

III. THE SECOND FIVE-YEAR PLAN If

A. Recent Developments Affecting the SecondFive-Year Plan 11

B. Second Plan Targets J14

IV, DEVELOPME17T EXPENDITURE 19

A. Agriculture 19Manures and Fertilizer 20Plant Protection 21Seed Multiplication 21Foodgrain Storage 21Agricultural Extension 22Agricultural Research 22Agricultural Education 23Colonization 23Animal Husbandry 23Forestry 23

B. Water Development 2West Pakistan 26East Pakistan 27

V. FACTORS INFLUENCING PRODUCTION AND PROSPECTS 28

A. Administrative Policies 28B. Sources of Increase 29

THE QUICK RESPONSE FACTORS 30

A. Improved Seed 30B. Fertilizer and Manures 32C. Plant Protection 34D. Better Husbandry Practices 35E. Easy Credit 35

Page No.

THE LONGER TERM FACTORS

A. Development of Water Resources 36West Pakistan 37East Pakistan 38

B. Development of Land Resources 0C. Agricultural Education, Research and Extension 42D. Animal Husbandry 45E. Forestry 47F. Fisheries 47G. land Reforms 48

Land Reforms in West Pakistan 48Land Reforms in East Pakistan 49

H. Rural Credit and Co-operative Marketing 50I. Co-operative Farms and Land Management 52J. Marketing and Economic Incentives 52K. Mechanization 52L. Saturation Programs 52M. Basic Democracies and Village AID 53

Appendix Page No.APPEDIDIX A - Water Development Projects in WVest Pakistan 1

Ghulam Mohamnad Barrage 1Gudu Barrage 2Taunsa Barrage 3Thal Development Project 3Salinity and VIaterlogging

(Drainage, Reclamation and Tubewells) 5

APPEM\IX B - Water Development Projects in East Pakistan 1Ganges Kobadak Project 1Coastal Eynbankments 2Flood Regulation and Drainage 3Small Pump Irrigation 3The Teesta Barrage 5

APPEMDIX C - Statistical Tables 1 -8

0 tkj.

'm , 51 t ;

,,X,- ' Ms1-,' s .''-,o s,.qfX1

"Z' ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ i ''>''2' ''" ' W ¢' o .| ! -'

i.,.,,9 1 .,°> +t < bVt~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1

I 1 | L t | I m A I-I

0 n - w c = -° ltst

n ees:.1nn : .. ; --- .r a In2't O.. 7.^n

Z ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~- ~~~ ~ I

n. .r. r m

..... 0° *-- t ....... X...W.°...°.C.O.. ..

o U c8 A,%2) X* * a .- .o°

m ~> 0 C0 00 '0 =

PAKISTAN

AGi','CULTURAL PRODTJCTION AND PROSPECTS

INTRODUCTICON

1 ~ The economy of Pakistan is predominantly rural in character,Agriculture as the main source of national income, employment and of rawiaterials for domestic use and export is the key factor in development.The national income estimates show that agriculture's contribution amountsto about 57/0 of the total. Exports of agricultural raw materials on afive-year average constitute 70% of total exports. If cotton and jutemanufactures are added, exports of agricultural crigin constitute 80% ofthe total, About 90'%1 of the population lives in rural areas and about75% of the people are agriculturally employed. The development aspira-tions of the Government have been embodied in two formal Five-Year Plans,The first, running from 1955/56 to 1959/60 and the second from 19060/61 to196L/650

2, The land area of Pakistan is 231 million acres, out of which62 million acres (26%) is cultivated (22 million acres in East Pakistanand ho million acres in West Pakistan). Details of the acreage5 prcduc-tion and yields per acre for the principal crops are given in tables 2,3.and1 1, in tlhc stctistical 2p-Ycndix C.

3.,, The two Provinces, East Pakistan and liest Pakistan, are wideapart geographically (some 1,200 air miles) and almost totally differentagriculturally. The marked differences between the two parts of thecountry result chiefly from the abundant monsoon rainfall of East Pakis-tan contrasted with the arid rature of IJest Pakistan. In addition tothis main division. within each Province there is a considerable rangeof conditions and agricultural practice. This is greater in West Pakis-tan vhere rainfall and the availability of irrigation are the chiefdeterminants. In East Pakistan, where most of the land is less than 50feet above sea level, rainfall and degree of susceptibility to floodingare the main determinants.

East Pakistan

East Pakistan has a cultivated area of 22 million acres withina total land area of 35.4 million acres. It is a flat deltaic plainlaced by a network of watercourses, with shifting and unstable beds, Anaverage yearly rainfall of 76 inches is unevenly distributed; the highestinrcidence at 226 inches being in parts of Sylhet in the north-east andthe lowest at about 53 inches in Rajshahi in the west. A'bout five sixthsof this torrential rainfall comes during four or five monsoonal months -May to September. Annual floods of varying intensity are a normalfeature of about one third of the cultivated area.

-2-

5. There is as yet very little irrigation. Alternating floods anddrcughts and intrusion of seawater on the potentially fertile coastalflats are amongst the Train prnblens0 The pressure of population on theland is severe and little additional acreage is available for cultivation,Hence, the key problem in the Province is to increase production on theexisting cultivated area. Flood control, drainage and irrigation offergreat scope and could lead to markedly increased yields, greater securityand an extension of double cropping, The principal crops are rice (21million acres), jute (114 million acres), tea (78,0oo acres) and sugarcane (281,000 acres), Details of the acreage and production for the prin-cipal crops are given in tables 5 & 6 in the statistical appendix.

West Pakistan

6., West Pakistan has a cultivated area of about 40 million acreswithin a total land area of 198 million acres. The annual rainfall isfrom 30-40 inches in the northern piedmont tracts and dwindling to lessthan 5 inches in the southern plains but the period deviations from theannual Yrean are large. Extensive upland, desert and mountain areas arebarren with wide ranges in temperatures, low humidity and strong winds.Apart from the northern part of the Province the country is mostly aridor semi-arid and some 58 per cent of the cultivated area is dependent onirrigation. Water is the scarce factor. Even in irrigated tracts crop-ping is not intensive and substantial areas are left fallow because ofinsufficient water, Ifost of the cultivated area lies in the Indus Basinand outside this the country is mainly inferior range land used in vary-ing degrees for grazing but on the whole very badly. In the dry farmingareas soil erosion is a major problem. In the irrigated areas waterlog-ging and salinity are reducing production at an alarming rate. The prin-cipal crops in West Pakistan are wheat (12 mffillion acres), sugar cane(1 million acres) and cotton (33 million acres).

7. Details of the acreage and production for the principal cropsin West Pakistan are given in tables 7 & 3 in the statistical appendix.

8. Features which are conmnon to both provinces include:

Intense population pressure on land. This is more se-vere in EastPakistan wlhere in some districts it rises to l,5C0 persons persquare mile. It is estimated that there are about 0,5 acres ofcropped area per capita in East Pakistan and 009 acres per capitain West Pakistan. IWith the high rate of population growth thepositioni is getting rapidly Torse. Each year almost two millionpeople are added. This low and decreasing per capita croppedarea emphasizes the conflict in the present situation, All theconditions demand intensive production, yet yields per acre areamongst the lowJest in the world and cropping intensity is also low.

Small farms. The average unit of farm operation is very small bothin East and West Pakistan. The overall average is about 3 acresper cultivated holding. In East Pakistan the lowest average fora district is 1.6 acres per farm and the highest 5.2 acres, InWest Pakistan comparable figures are 0.97 acres and 8.7 acres.

- 3-

The small average size of the farming lunit is not the only problem,In addition to being very small, most of them are very badly frag-mented. A 2-acre farm may be made up of many plots, some consider-able distance apart.

Subsistence farmIng. The main concern of the majority of farmers,living in a tightly knit village comnunity, is to prcduce enoughfood to feed his family (and in a very meager way his animals) andto exchange for essential services. VThilst no reliable figures areavailable it is generally estimated that only between 20% and 25%of the dnmestic foodgrain production enters commercial channels.

Virtuially no mechanization, With abundant labor (indeed a great dealof underemployment a'nd the nniall fragmented farms, a high degreeof po7qer mechanization would be inappropriate at this stage. 1-ith-in the scope of present conditions, however, the tools and simpleimplements or machines for cultivating, weeding, drilling andthreshing, etc. are extremely primitive and inadequate.

High rate of illiteracy. The 1961 census indicated that; the rate ofilliteracy in East Pakistan was 82% ard in IJest Pakistan 88%o

9. Yuch of the country has been endowsed wituh good soils but the farm-ing systems are exhaustive and standards of husbandry are loW. This has ledto the position where, even with favorable basic conditions of soil, water(natural or controlled) and abundant labor, yields are amongst the lowest inthe world. Undoubtedly there are special problems but there are enouoghexamples of individuals getting returns several times the average to givefirm indication that very big increases are possible.

l0o These small-scale, tradition bound and mostly illiterate farmersmake up a big proportion of the country's population, With no reserves offood or finance, living on the margin of subsistence they cannot be expected.to be innovators or take risks. On the other hand, the Mission formed theopinion that they were shrewd and, given proper support and convincingleadership - writh necessity pressing hard - it should be possible to getwidespread adoption of the more obvious and less demanding forms of improve-m.nt. These include use of fertilizer, better water use and improvedstandards of husbandry. Survival is the dominant consideration. The heavyand gro-wing population pressure on land is demanding higher outpu.t and sofar has led to more mono-culture and declining fertility. In 1959/60 inEast Pakistan 90% of the cropped area was under foodgrains and in West Pakis-tan 70%. Very little fertilizer is applied to foodgrains and this is vir-tually limited to nitrogen. Inadequate amounts of dung and organic matterare returned to the soil.

11. The breaking of this cycle of low input, low standards of hus-bandry and low output mu.st be the first objective. Only when productionreaches a level that gives some room to maneuver can more sophisticatedmeasures of improvement be introduced. To break this cycle, Governmenthas given high priority to agricultural development in both the First andSecond Plans.

THE FIRST FIVE-YEAR PLAN

12. The First Plan started officially in June 1955, but there isgeneral agreement that it did not really become effective until well into1957. The Plan provided public expenditures of Rs. 1,504 million foragricultural development (including Village AID) and Rs. 27697 miLlion forwater and power development. These together amounted to 4h$% of the totalPlan allocation for public development expenditures of Rs. 9,349 million.Detailed breakdowns of the plan allocations for the Agricultural andWiater and PowTer sectors are shoin in the following tables:

Allocations for Agricultural Development(public sector) 1955-60

(in million rupees)

CentralEast West Govern-

Sector Pakistan Pakistan ment Total

1. Plant Breeding 3.21 5.00 13.16 21L372. Seed YMultiplication & Distribution 32.22 31.h3 0.88 64,533. IManures & Fertilizers - - 200.28 200.284I Plant Protection 10.30 22141 27.32 6CJ')5. Additional Research Projects 1.41 2.39 2.77 Lv576. Mechanization 23.40 25.26 - 48.667. Marketing Regulation & Govt. Storage 2.94 0.77 55,70 591418. Fisheries 7.20 4.79 22,93 34.929. Animal Husbandry 35.99 49.75 28.08 113.82

10. Range Management 0.60 9.71 - 10.3111. Forestry 33.62 39.89 16.59 90.1012. Soil Conservation - 3.20 4.22 7.4213. Soil Survey 0.54 0.56 0.02 1.1214. Colonization 1.27 113.60 - 114b.8715. Farm Management 0.20 0.20 - 0C4016. Agriculture Statistics 1.00 2.30 5.33 8,6327. Training & Employment of Professional

Staff in Agricultural Education,Research & Extension 13.59 36.91 1,5L 52.04

18. Underdeveloped Area - 4.78 0.62 5.4019. Reserves 190.00 - - 190,00

Total 357.49 352.95 377.44 1,087.88

20. Co-operatives, rural credit &Marketing 57.12 50.00 - 107.12

21. Land Reforms - 9.50 2.00 11.50

22. Village AID and Rural Development 143.90 144,10 9.90 297.90

Grand Total 558.51 556.55 389.34 1,50o440

Allocations of wjater and powJer developr.,ent,public sector, 1955-60

(million ripees)

East --estName of Schemie Pakistan Pakistan Central Total

Govt. Go-t. Govt.1 _ __ 2 3 4 5

General Investigations:Ground Water --- 5° ---Other 20 26 12

Sub-total 20 12 108

i,tatipurpose Development:Karnafuli 217 --Warsak 236Teesta 50 _Ganges-Kobadak 851aengla --- 60Other 2 82 1

Sub-total 354_________297 733

IrrigationtTaunsa Barrage 127 -Gudu Barrage 150Ghulam Mohammad Barrage - 127 ---Link Canals -- 87Other 38 256 3

Sub-total 38 T 77 3 7 738

Flcod Regulation and Drainage:Coimprehensive Drainage scheme

for Faridpar 37Other 65 95

Sub-total 102 95 = 197

Power:Siddhirganj Thermal Power Station 32 -Karachi Electric Supply --- 62.West Pakistan Transmission Grid 80Natural Gas Power Station, Multan --- 110Hyderabad and Sukkur Thermal Systems -n 41.East Pakistan Transmission and

Distribution Schemes L8Other 34 164 _

Sub-total 114 205 25 571Total (Scheduled) 625 1,205 74 2j397

Reserve 30O -- n 300

Grand Total 926 1,205 564 2,697

- 6 ..

13. The financial targets were only met to the extent of 52'% in thecase of agriculture (Rs. 784 million) and 68% in the case of water andpower (Rs. 1,835 million), though the power element was overspent. Thetargets for physical inputs also were only met in part, the performancebeing somewhat uneven, but showing an encouraging rate of acceleration ineach of the last three years. The rate in 1959/60 was three times the ratein 1955/56 for agriculture and more than double the rate for water andpower.

Public Development Expenditures

(in million rupees)

9Q55/56 1956/57 1957/58 1958/59 1959/60

Agricultural andRural Development 90 95 104 225 270

Water & PowerDevelopment 250 230 380 h45 530

Total 851 878 1,509 1,826 1,924

14. It was calculated that the planned rate of financial and physicalinvestment, together with all the other motivating forces put to work, wouldresult in an increase in production by 1959/60 as showJn in columns 3 and 1Iof the table below. The most important single object was tn incrcnse food-

grains by 9%.

15. At the time of evaluation of the Plan early in 1960, the 1959/60production figures were not available and early estimates were used. Also,in assessing the increase during the Plan period the base period producti onwas compared with the average of the five-year period. Attention should bedrawn to the fact that the 1959/60 production figures in many cases provedto be considerably higher than the estimate included in the five-yearaverage. Also, given a rising trend, the five-year average represents themid-point level, say, 1957/58, by which time the Plan had not really gotunder way. The benefits of the increasing rate of input in the last twoyears is hardly reflected. Unfortunately no satisfactory way of convertingthe actual 1959/60 production to "normal conditions" has been developed andso the relative influences of favorable season and increased inputs cannotbe accurately assessed. However, if the base period is compared with1959/60 instead of the five-year average, the percentage increase for food-grains and sugar --which covers 81% of the planted acreage -is above orequal to the targets. Due allowqance must, of course, be made for the factthat it was a favorable year for foodcrops and a bad one for cotton andjute.

., 7 -

Agricultural Production Targetsand Achievement During the First Plan

5 Year 1959/60Planned Planned Average 5 Year Produc-

Base Produc- Increase Produc- Production Average Com- tion Com-Produc- tion by over Base tion (1955/56 pared with pared withtion 1959/60 Period 1959/60 to 1959/60) Base Period Base Period

1. 2. 3, r 4 . 7. 3.

Thousand Tons Per Cent Thousand Tons Per CentRice (cleaned) 8.320 9s000 8 9,461 8,409 + 1.0 + 13.7Wheat 3,435 3,839 12 3,876 3,64h + 6.o + 12.8Maize 395 456 15 480 46h +17.4 + 21.5Other foodgrains 725 781 8 702 700 - 3.4 - 3,2

Total foodgrains 12,875 14.,076 9 1h,519 13,217 + 2.7 + 12.8

Sugar cane 10,60o 149110 33 14,105 13,975 +318 + 33.1Oilseeds (including

cotton seed) 890 1,017 15 952 966 + 8.5 + 6.5

Thousand Bales Per Cent Thousand Bales Per CentCotton 1,630 1,967 21 1,657 1568C0 + 3.1 + 1.6Jute 5,565 6,4oo 15 5,55h 5,772 + 3.7 - 0.2

Million lbs. Per Cent Million lbs Per CentTea 52M8 60c7 15 5700 52.5 - o06 + 709Tobacco 260.00 300.00 16 198.1 202.3 -22.2 - 23.8

Note: Production figures of linseed for 1959/60 antd production figures of groundnuts for 1959/60 werenot available. Therefore, estimates have been incluided in total -roduction of cilseeds.

-8-

16. In addition.,to these considerations, there is a strong presump-tion that the actual level of production was considerably higher than thatrecorded. The 1961 census indicated a higher population figure and ahigher rate of growth than those used in the Plan. The higher populationfigure may only mean that per capita consumption was lower than assumed orthat production was higher. Since the former is at a low level (14.5 oz.grain per day), it is reasonable to assume that production was higher andmore so in view of the known bias in the present statistical reportingsystem. To provide the minimum level of 1465 oz. of grain per day for therevised population figures would have required a level of production350,000 tons higher than the estimated requirements at the beginning ofthe period and 600,000 tons higher by 1959/60.

17. Projects for water development progressed at a slower rate thanplanned with the result that none of the major irrigation projectsscheduled for completion during the First Plan period were completed.Many of the projects have risen substantially in cost and taken much longerto complete than originally planned. Even where engineering works havebeen completed and water has been available, delays in colonization andland development have kept land out of production.

Target Date CostOrig. Revised Orig. Revised

Ganges Kobadak Kushtia Unit 1956 1963 50,0 197.8Kurrim Garhi 1954 1962 10.0 8h49GM Barrage (Headworks

completed 1955) 1965 350.2 725,0Gudu 1958 1962 283.0 374^0Taurnsa 1958 1962 lol.4 207.1

18. The mission feels that although the extent to wihich physical andfinancial targets were achieved was disappointing, significant progresshas been made particularly in the last two years. A number of obstaclesto development have been recognized and some steps have been taken towardsapplying corrective measures. Most of the controls on foodgrains and juteproduction were abolished in 1959, with a view toward providing greaterproduction incentives and freeing control personnel for agricultural develop-ment work. Administrative reforms were initiated with a view toTward reduc-ing bureaucratic delays and providing greater scope for initiative andimagination at the lower levels of administration. Autonomous Wlater andPower Development Authorities have been created to handle water and powerdevelopment in both wings freed of restrictive bureaucratic procedures.A master plan has been dra-wm up for rapid development of the GHI Barrage anda streamlined organization established under a Colonization Director toexecute the plan. The extension services are in process of expansion andin service training efforts are being accelerated. The Mission felt thatthese reforms, important as they are, only met part of the problem andthat more drastic measures Twould be required to quicken the pace of develop-ment.

19. The increase in acreage under cultivation and acreage withimproved water supply of 1.3 million acres and 2.5 million acres, respec-tively, is considerable but a large part of this increase stems fromearlier investments in water control, such as the Thal, the GM Barrage andSdkkur Barrage. Some new acreage and improved acreage may be attributedto private tubewelldevelopments in West Pakistan. Small pump irrigationin East Pakistan has accounted for 50,000 acres of land principally sownto Boro paddy, and promises substantial scope for increasing the areadouble cropped.

20. A number of the research projects carried out during the FirstPlan have also produced results which have as yet produced relatively littleimpact on actual output, but provide substantial scope for future expansion.Hybrid maize, some of the rust resistant wheats, and longer staple cottonare among the most Promising.

21. Finally although the extension services and the Village AIDorganization are still woefully inadequate, a nurnber of persons havereceived training during the First Plan period. The number of agriculturalgraduates has increased and a large number of village level workers have rece_vereceived training providing a corps of persons with some training who canbe incorporated into an expanded extension service.

22. The lMission feels that, although the extent to which it provednossible to increase physical and financial inputs proved disappointing,bearing in mind the delayed start, rather more progress in terms of produc-tion was made than is generally conceded. The Second Five-Year Plan startsfrom this improved base and with the advantage of considerable deferredbenefits from the accelerating rate of input in the last two years and a

promising, if slow, upward trend in production.

- 10 -

IIl. THE SECOND F IVE-YEAR PIAN

23. As in the First Plan, the highest priority is attached to in-creasing agricultural production and the target rates for inputs and in-creased producUion have been considerably accelerated. As set out in thePlan, the agricultural program aims at:

" i) sel--sufficiency in basic food production, maintainingas a minimum, the present levels of foodgrain con-sumption for the rapidly growing population;

ii) raising of dietary standards through increased suppliesof fish, fruits, vegetables, sugar and livestockproducts;

iii) expanding the output of jute, cotton, tea and forestproducts to the maximum possible extent;

iv) working to~ward an export position across the full pro-duction front, not excepting foodgrains; and

v) increasing employment opportunity and reducing under-employment in agriculture."

24. Within these broad objectives highest priority is given to attain-ing self-sufficiency in foodgrains. The main financial and production in-puts to achieve the target increases are set out in the table on page 19for agriculture and in the table on page 25 for water.

25. The production targets as set forth in the Second Five-Year Planare shown below:

Important Physical TargetsPercentage

Unit 1959/60 1964/65 IncreaseAgricultural Production

W,heat TO0O tons 3,703 4,329 17Rice (cleaned) "" 8,341 10,164 22Other grains t"l" 1,145 1,1428 24

Total Foodgrains '000 tons 13,189 15,921 21

Jute 'OCO bales 6,000 7,300 22Cotton "" 1,666 2,292 38Sugar cane '000 tons 15,430 20,800 35Fish "" 290 360 24

Water and PowerNeat irrigated area(during previous 5 yrs.) '000 acres 1,082 2,,445 -

Improved area(during previous 5 yrs.) 'OCO acres 2,570 7,112

^) Plan estimates of "normal" level of expected production in 1959/60.

- 11 -

A. Recent Developments Affecting the Second Five-Year Plan

26. The Second Five-Year Plan (1960-1965) was prepared during 1959/60and adopted in June 1960. Since its pub'ication there have been severalchanges in the scope and costs of the original proposals. There have alsobeen some important new developments, not taken into consideration in thePlan, which will affect the scope and direction of agricultural develop-ment in the next few years, Some of the most important of these changesare discussed below. Their implications so far as they can be foreseen atthis stage are incorporated in subsequent discussions.

1. Conclusion of the Indus Basin Development Fund Agreement

27. ITorks proposed under the agreement will entail heavy commitm,entof resources for construction of replacement works for which no provisionwas made in the Plan. The agreement provides for replacing water suppliedby the three uastem rivers (Ravi, Sutlej and Peas )s which are to bediverted to India with water from the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum andChenab). This involves the construction of two large storage reservoirs,five new barrages and 388 miles of link canals. The physical iworks willrequire 10 to 12 years to complete and will place a heavy burden on Pakis-tan's financial and physical resources, particularly lkAPDA, wohich is theexecuting authority.

28. In view of the relatively fi xed schedule agreed upon and the in-ternational commitments involved, the Indus program will have to be givenpriority over other works. The expenditures during the Plan period areestimrated at Rs. 3,230 million and whilst the ultimate benefits will beconsiderable, no direct increases in output will be realized during thePlan period, Much ot the -work will be undertaken by consultants and con-tractors and will not bear on Pakistan's resources in proportion to itssize but such a large undertaking cannot proceed simultaneously with thePlan projects without marked effect.

29, These works are being finarced by contributions from the UnitedStates, the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand andIndia, plus loans from the International Bank for Reconstruction andDevelopment and the U.S. Development Loan Fund. There will, however, besome items of expenditure which will not be eligible for reimbursementfrom the fund. It is to this extent that the Indus works will make demandon Pakistan's own financial resources. Very tentative estimates by l'APDAput the relative costs during the Plan period at, non-reimbursable Rs. 330million, reimbursable Rs. 2,9C0 million. The non-reimbursable expenditurehas now been included in the revised estijiate of investment expendituresduring the Plan period.

2. Increase in the Cost of the Plan

30. The cost of the Agricultural Sector has increased from Rs. 2,5L0million to Rs. 2,840 million - an increase of 12%. The Water and PowerSector has increased from Rs. 3,1LO million to Rs. 4h,lOt million - an in-crease of 29.5%. Additional increases are still under consideration andthose discussed below have not yet been incorporated in the Plan.

- 12 -

3. Waterlogging and Salinity "Yaster Plan"

31. The problem of vaterlogging and salinity in the irrigated areasof West Pakistan is discussed in more detail later. It is a matter ofoutstanding importance and unless it can be dealt with it poses a realthreat to the maintenance of even the present standards of production. TheGovernment has decided to prepare a "master plan" for co-ordinating andspeeding up the execution of all land reclamation projects designed tocombat this menace. No details are available yet, but it is clear thatthe increased attention and revised timing will involve commitments of ex-penditure and physical resources far in excess of the scale envisaged inthe Plan. Preliminary indications are that the "master plan" will involveexpenditures in the region of Rs. 5,OCO million over a 10 year period.This could result in a substantial addition to the Plan allocation possiblyin the region of Rs. 1,000 to Rs. 1,500 million.

4. Implementation of the Food and Agriculture Commission's Recommendations

32. The Food and Agriculture Commission was set up by the PakistanGovernment in July 1959. It was made up of nine full time members, fourfull time advisors and two part time advisors, together with a sizeableadministrative and technical staff. The members of the Commission and itsadvisors were men of outstanding national and international reputation.Its terms of reference were broad, amounting to a responsibility to reviewthe whole field of agricultural production and administration and makerecommendation for improvement. The Commission pursued its enquiries forabout a year and submitted its report in November 1960.

33. The Mission understands that the recommendations of the Commis-sion have now been accepted by the Government and that ways and means ofimplementing them are under active consideration. The Mission is con-cerned here with the effect the main recommendations will have on the Planand future agricultural development.

34. After reviewing the whole field and setting out its judgmentsand recommendations on many important matters the Commission concludesthat the past rate of growth in agricultural production has been unsatis-factory. Also, that existing agencies are not in a position to acceleratedevelopment sufficiently to meet the need. In these circumstances thereport emphasizes the importance of building up an effective organizationto provide advice, supplies, services and perhaps direction at the farmlevel in order to bring about the needed rapid increases in production.This need for a competent organization is the central theme of the reportand the way to achieve it is the outstanding (but by no means the only)recomrendation.

35. The Commission recommends the setting up of two AgriculturalDevelopment Corporations, one in each Province, as the main controllingauthority for most of the services having a direct bearing on the produc-tion drive. As envisaged in the report, these two organizations will bethe dominant forces in agricultural development in their respective Provinces.

- 13 -

They will directly undertake most of the supply services (seed, fer-tilizer,plant protection, credit, etc.) and will actively participate in almostall other supporting activities. They will take over or supplement thefuanctions of existing agencies as the circumstances appear to make necessary.The Corporation will draw their funds from -the Central Government and besubjected to some degree of overall Government supervision but will havegreat freedom of action as well as great authority. They will be freedfrom the limitations of departmental and civil service procedures. It ishoped that this strong, independent ar.d businesslike organization will beable to provide the force and unified direction necessary to put realdrive into the production effort and to support this by the rapid develop-nent of the essential services and information.

36. The Mission feels that over a broad field and particularly onthe suppiV side this drastic "take over" approach is necessary. On thesupply side the problem is to a considerable extent one of large-scaleorganization and management and - subJect to the qualifications of properrecognition and opportunity for private enterprise - can no doubt be un-dertaken more quickly and more efficiently under unified and businesslikedirection,. In some of the other fields involving more technical servicessuch as extension, plant and animal breeding, research and development-work, the relationship with existing agencies will be more difficult toestablish, Great care as well as goodwill on both sides will be necessaryto hammer out a working arrangement vhich provides for a proper balancebetween responsibility, opportunity and allocation of resources. Thetransition from the present organization to the new should be made assmoothly as possible to cause the minimlum interruption to the upwlard trendin production so recently established0

37. Again no clear indication of the additional cost and other re-sources involved to carry out such an accelerated program have been workedout. The Commission tentatively estimated the increased expendituresduring the remaining four years of the Plan at Rs. 564 million plus un-specified sums for irrigation, agricultural credit and co-operative develop-re nt.

5. Population Increase

38. The 1961 census indicates that there were almost 4.2 millionmore people than previously assumed in January 1961. Also, the rate ofgrowth is considerably higher than in the Plan calculations. Assuming agrowth rate of 2% and the sane standard of nutrition as used in the Plan,the extra population in 196L/65 will require an increased supply of 900,000tons of foodgrains over the level estimated in the Plan. On the otherhand, as indicated earlier, the census also implies that production in1960 was 600,000 tons higher than assumed in the Plan.

39. Excluding the Indus Water Settlement Plan, all these develop-ments have arisen since the Mission returned from Pakistan. The detailsof the major programs have not yet been worked out so it is impossible toform any firm views on how far they can be blended with the Plan program.

- 14 -

C'learly, intentions involving an increased expenditure amounting in aggre-gate to something like Rs,, 3,000 million, with all that this implies interms of human and physical resources, cannot simply be added to thesealready heavily burdened sectors. There will have to be a major re-appraisaland some compromise in terms of immediate and long-tenan objectives and a re-allocation of priorities,

B. Second Plan Targets

4o. The Mission is not in a position to judge what effects these pro-posed, but as yet undefined, increased inputs rmight have on productionlevels during the Plan period. However, if the Nission's assumption re-garding the 1960 level of production in relation to the increased poplula-tion is accepted, the increase in foodgrains to be achieved during the Planperiod (see table on page 10 ) need not be materially affected. It becomesin the region of 2.2 million tons, compared with 2,7 million tons in thePlan but the end point will be 16.8 million tons instead of 15.9 milliontons

41. The original estimate of the foodgrain gap was derived as follols:

1959/60 food requirement 1h,6 million tonsEstimate of 1959/60 production 13,2 i"

Deficit to be met by imports l. million tonsPopulation growth 103 1l 11

Required increase in output 2,7 million tons

On the basis of the 1961 census and actual 1959/60 production the foodgraingap iwould be as follows:

1959/60 food requirement 15.2 million tons1959/60 production 1L.6 It _ If_

Deficit .6 million tonsPopulation growth 1.6 " "

Required increase in output 292 million tons

Since actual imports in 1959/60 amounted to 103 million tons it can beassumed that per capita consumption was somewhat higher than 1h45 oz. and/orthat stocks increased to some extent. Of course calculations of this typecan never be precise and it can be argued that the 1959/60 production -wasabove normal. The Mission, therefore, feels that a target in the region of2X5 million tons is reasonable.

42. Foodgrains account for 80% of total cropped acreage and con-sequently, unless significant increases in foodgrain production can beachieved, the benefits of agricultural development will be limited.

- 15 -

Moreover, foodgrain imports during the First Plan period used up Rs. 700million of scarce foreign exchange resources and significantly affectedthe size of the development program. The Second Plan provides for fcod-grain import costs of Rs. 600 million out of Pakistants own resources.While substantial increases in PLo480 foodgrain aid are in process of nego-tiation they will be needed primarily to build up reserves, meet shortfallsresulting from adverse weather conditions and to increase per capita con-sumption in the short run and cannot be considered to be a long run solu-tion.,

43. Technical possibilities for achieving increases in foodgrains aregood particularly in view of the present low level of yields. There issubstantial scope for increasing yields through various measures for in-creasing yields per acre and from additional land which are expected to bebrought into cultivation during the Plan period. So far the bulk of theinputs have been applied to cash crops such as sugar cane, cotton, jute andtea but there is evidence in the past two years that farmers are beginningto use fertilizer on foodgrains particularly in East Pakistan where riceproduction in 1960/61 reached a postwar high. In West Pakistan the develop-ments in hybrid maize have already had some impact on the level of maizeproduction and can be expected to significantly affect production as seedproduction is expanded, Wheat, the principal foodgrain in West Pakistan,is expected to drop sharply in 1960/61 as a result of severe drought con-ditions and limited supplies of canal water at planting time, Improvedwater supplies resulting from past investments as well as the water develop-rnment program in the Second Plan period should contribute toward reducingdrought risk and increasing yields.

h4. Jute, cotton and sugar cane are the three principal industrialcrops,. In acreage they represent only 122 of the cropped area, but fromthe standpoint of cash income to the farmer and the nation's foreign ex-chlange position, these crops are of major importance, Jute and jute productsrepresented 53% of total export earnings in the First Plan period and cottonand cotton goods 20%. Increased sugar production has rade it possible toeliminate sugar imports which formerly amounted to Rs,, 50 million per year.

45. Pakistan is the principal jute producer in the world providingalmost 40% of the world supply. The crop is grown entirely in the EastWing where it is the principal cash crop for farmers in the jute area. Millconsumption of jute is expected to increase from 1,5 million bales in 1959/60to around 2.6 million bales in 1964/650 Allowing for raw jute exports (if4.7 million bales, the Plan aims at increasing jute production from an esti-mrated normal level of 6 million bales in 1959/60 to 7.3 million bales in196L/65e

46. The Jute Enquiry Commission in its report recommends a target of8 million bales in 1964/65 on the basis of a higher level of domestic re-quirements and exports of 5 million bales, The report points out the cor-relation between the jute paddy price ratio and the acreage planted to juteand concludes that a ratio of at least 1,6 to 1 will be necessary to stimu-late increases in jute acreage, Current jute prices are substantially

- 16 -

higher as a result of the poor crops during the past twjo years and the rat-onow stands at about 4 to 1Q This, together wjith the lifting of controls onjute acreage, should stimulate a sharp increase in jute acreage during1960/61 wi-th a corresponding decline in paddy acreage. A 25% increase injute acreage would amount to only 350,000 acres which is less than 2% oftotal paddy acreage, yet would he sufficient to produce the planned _.ncreasein output. Howe-ver, since domestic jute prices are directlly related toworld. prices it is difficult to see whether prices will continue to be suf-ficiently high to stimulate the level of output projected in 1964/65. Onthe other hand) there is substantial scope for reducing costs of productionthrough higher yields, as well as possibilities for reducing export dutiesin the face of lower vurld prices and Pakistan does have natural advantagesin jute production from the stanerpoint of soils and climate, There is, how-ever, somnc uestion as to the feasibility of the planned increases in domes-tic mill consumption.

h7. Exports of raw cotton have dropped to one third of the peakreached in 1950/51. In part this has been offset by increased exports ofcottcn manufactures, but the volume of total cottoin exports has declinedsignificantly as a result of higher domestic consumption. In an effort torecoup some of the losti exports and to meet expected increases in domesticdemand, the Plan calls for increasing cotton production from a level of1.7 million bales to 2,3 million bales.

48. The rapid expansion of the cotton textile industry is expected toconti.nue and total domestic requirements for 1959/60 are estimated at 1.,6million bales or roughly the level of current production. The bulk of thedemand will be for medium staple cotton 3/4" to 1-1/81' suitable for spin-ning up to about 40 count yarn. About 8% of the spinning capacity will befor finer qualities requiring longer staple cotton which has been developedin Pakistan but has not yet been produced in significant quantities0 Theharsh short-staple Comilla and Desi varieties which now account for about10% of production are used for local cottage irndustries and exports. Thereis a limited but steady export dema-d for these harsh short-staple varieties.Production increases will, therefore, be directed largely toward the mediunmstaple American varieties and the new long-staple Lassani variety.

49. Cotton is growni almost entirely in the West Wing, largely underirrigated conditions. Under the Punjab Cotton Control Act, 1949, specificzones have been created for growing different varieties in the former Punjab.The Government plans to extend this Act through West Pakistan and to expandits inspectorate staff in an effort to maintain the purity of the strains,prevent mixing at the ginneries and to accelerate the program for seed im-provement. In addition programs for better water control, increased ferti-lizer use and plant protection are expected to contribute significantly tohigher yields. The proposed increase from 1.,7 million bales to 2_3 millionbales is expected to come mainly from these measures with only 9% of theincrease resulting from new acreage.

- 17 -

5C. Sugar cane targets were aimed at meeting a sharply rising demandfor sugar (including gur) resulting from both direct human consumption andindustrial demand for sugar. The Plan provides for the establishment ofseven new sugar mills. The target is to increase cane production from 15.4million tons to 20.8 million tons, or 35%. This is roughly the same per-centage increase achieved in the First Plan.

51. Although Pakistan has the fourth largest sugar cane acreage inthe vorld, it has the lowest sugar production per acre among the m.ajor pro-ducers. Sugar cane acreage has been inzreasing rapidly over the pastdecade in both Wings, largely as a result of high prices made possible byrapidly rising demand and restricted imports. Cane prices in Pakistan aresubstantially higher and the sugar extraction rate substantially lowjerthan in other producing countries.

52. The Pakistan Sugar Commission 1957/59 concluded that self-suffi-ciency in sugar could be achieved from a reduced acreage through increasedefficiency in cane production and processing and set forth detailed recom-mnndalions for achieving these goals. Tiany of the recommendations havebeen accepted by Government and steps have been initiated to establish caneproducing zones around factories to rationalize prices and to increase caneyields.

53. The Missionts view is that the Plan targets are attainable andwould be attained or exceeded if the program as envisaged in the Plan wereeffectively carried out. It is on this 'ast and vital point that we haveserious reservations. Acknowrledging the prcgress made, we still douhtwhether the existing agencies without nore vigorous reorganization andfirmer direction than is er-visaged in the normal course are capable of im-plementing the full intentions of the Plan. This applies particularly tothe Extension Services, the organization of the essential supplies, irriga-tU.on and colonization. The HIission feels strongly that there should bemaximum concentration of effort on a more limited range of objectives toensure that the most inmediately essential projects are in fact fully im-plemented and rapidly exploited. In other wVords, the total objectivescontained in all the schemes in hand (good and recessary as most of themare), should be spread over a longer period. For the imr.ediate future aconcentration on fertilizers, better seed, credit in kind, specializedextension and those irrigation and colonization projects which can yieldthe biggest immediate returns. The benefits of the increased productivityso induced arn the experience gaired wTould then be available to assistand encourage the later attainment of the wider objectives.

54, The Agricultural Development Corporations vill no douibt be able tomake a big contribution in this direction. We would strongly recomrnend thattheir imr.ediate o'bjectives should be heavily weighted in favor of country-wide supply services and firm management of colonization and developmentin one or two of the more promising or new areas becoming available forexploitation. Areas for such special treatment might be the GhulamMohamniad Barrage, Ganges Kobadak and salinity control projects. If theenabling services are concentrated on supply and promising projects and theextension and motivating influences are strongly applied to a limited rangeof priorities (seed, fertilizer, wVater use and better husbandry), the urgenttask of raising production to the target levels should be achieved,

- 18 -

The longer term or more obstinate development projects can then be tackledfrom a better base and employing the greater number of trained and ex-perienced people increasingly becoming available.

55. This concentrated application of resources will require firmbasic conviction and policy decision ard then strong and determined direc-tion. U1ho should provide the latter - Development Corporation, GovernmentDepartment or Special Agency - must be decided in respect of each function.The decision should be quite objective and care should be taken to avoidunnecessary disturbance. When areas of responsibility have been decided,the executing authority must be given all reasonable facilities and aboveall, within its ter.ms of reference, freedom to act decisively. The almostunbelievable delays which have occurred through lack of inter-departmentalco-operation, difficulty in reaching essential decisions and failure toreconcile coiflicting departmental interests must be eliminated.

- 19 -

IV. DEVELOPMENT EaPENTDITURE

A. Agriculture

56. The original Plan drawn up in 1959/60 provided for a total ex-penditure for agriculture of Rs. 2,5140 million, includiLg Rs. 1,660 mil-lion in the Public Sector and Rs. 880 million in the Private Sector.During April 1961 this i,as revised ard a total of Rs. 300 million added,iraking the Plaii allocation now Rs. 2,8L40 million, of which Rs. 1,935 mil-lion in the Publ-c Sector is distributed as shc(wn below.

Public Sector Development Expenditures in Agriculture1960/61 to 196)4/65 _

(million rupees)

East WestPakistan Pakistan Center Total

Manures and fertilizers a/ 161 157 - 318

Plant protection a/ 10 13 219 / 242Seed multiplication & distribution a! 96 67 - 163Mechanization a/ 32 31 - 63Soils c/ - 9 9Agricultural economics & statistics 2 2 6 10Agricultural marketing 1 c/ 3 14Fcodgrain storage 80 3T 114 228Agricultural extension 12 8 c/ 20Agricultural research 7 17 - 214Agricultural education 46 54 - 100Colonization a/ 20 130 - 150Animal husbandry a/ 44 60 27 132Range management - 12 - 12Forestry a/ 66 71 15 151Soil conservation - 16 - 16Fisheries a/ 16 4 30 50Underdeveloped areas 2 20 16 38Land reforms a/ 57 19 - 76Central Jute Committee - - 4 4Central Cotton Committee - - 2 2Food & Agriculture Council - - 3 3Crash Program + 10 + 24 - + 34Other - - - + 86

Total 662 739 448 1,93 5-_/

a/ After deducting recoveries.b/ Includes cost of pesticides to be used by the Provinces.

Less than half a million rupees.d/ Excludes Rs. 200 million of rural credit ^Thich is shomn as

a capital liability on Government account.

Sotrce: Seconid Plan, amended to April 1961.

- 20 -

57. The Food and Agriculture Commissicn's recommendations as pre-viously explained, irimply an increase in expenditure within the Plan period.This policy decision has not been taken into account in the Plan allocationrevision referred to above. The situation must, therefore, be regarded asflu-do The iniplication. is that, within limits, the increase in agricul-tural production could be in proportion to the resources invested. Whilstthe Mission agrees up to a poirn, a program of the size implied wodld gowell beyond the human and physical resources available within the Planperiod and some adjustment irito immediate and longer term objectives willhave to be worked out.

58. The currernt Plan allocation of Rs. 1,935 million in the PublicSector is probably a reasonable but minimum allocation when related to thePlan targets and having regard to wIhat is feasible within the overall Planresources. Some adjustments within the total will be necessary to accom-modate the changes envisaged and to bring about the concentration of effortreferred to earlier.

59. Fertilizers, plant protection and seed u-lt.iplication togetheramount to Rs4 723 million5 or 37%, of the total. These tlhree have a directbearing on immediate production and subject only to the limitation ofsound application the Mission would recommend expansion - particularly offertilizer - to keep pace with the absorptive capacity of the industryIn due course, howxever, when credit fac ilities have been established and,iwith the aid of improved extension. farrers have become convinced of theeconomic advantages of these factors, it should be possible to reduce thesubsidy and make more funds available for exotension and researchf, In thecase of plant protection the service at present is provided by the Govern-ment and recovery is negligible. The I.ission considers that the responsi-bility for routine plant protection work should be transferred to thefarmers ard though a subs-idy may be necessayr for some time, the rate ofrecovery should be stepped up very steeply. In the case of seed multipli-cation marginal savings may be possible but the important consideration isto concentrate on getting better value for the expenditure and to extendprivate enterprise multiplication and eventually distribution of seed.

60? The Mission sugests that all the other sections should also belooked at again from the point of view of how far the proposed work fits inwith the main produztion drive. Anything which is outside this categoryshould be judged on its merits but very critically if it competes at allstrongly wiith the mrain objective for arny of the scarce resources. Some ofthe larger items are considered in more detail below.

Manures and Fertilizer

61. Iost of the expenditure of Rs, 318 million is a subsidy on thedistribution of fertilizers. The total gross cost of the prcgram is Rs. 803million and recoveries amount to Rs. 485 million. This is the largest itemin the Agricultural Sector. It assumes an increasing rate of fertilizerapplication from the 1960 level of 160 thousand tons of sulphate of ammoniaequivalent to 600 thousand tons of sulphate of ammonia equivalent, plus 190thousand tons of super-phosphate and 15 thousand tons of muriate of potash.

- 21 -

62. The Mission would not suggest any reduction in this item since

fertilizer, properly used, is one of the most hopeful features of the pro-duction drive. In due course, w.:hen credit facilities have been established

and farmers have become convinced of the benefits of using fertilizers, the

subsidy may be reduced and recoveries increased, which would make fundsavailable for transfer to extension or agricultural research.

Plant Protection

63. Of the total expenditure of Rs. 242 million, the greater part isfor the purchase of pesticides and equipment (Rs. 222 million); only asmall proportion (Rs. 14 million in East Pakistan and Rs. 13 million inWest Pakistan) being for the organization of services and investigation.The only recovery anticipated is Rs. 4 million in East Pakistan, TheMission fully appreciates the importance of Plant Protection and the ne-cessity for maintaining a service to deal with rrajor outbreaks. It feels,however, that the general responsibility for crop protection m,easures inthe ordinary course of production should be transferred to the farnner andrecoveries in this sector 3hould be substantially increased, again making

funds available for re-allocation.

Seed liultiplication

64. This program, costing Rs. 163 million, is largely for the estab-lishment of Goverrznent seed farms but also includes Rs. 62 million forconstruction of agricultural stores and Rs. 22 million for the multiplica-

tion of paddy and jute seed through registered growers in East Pakistan,

In West Pakistan the only item of any size outside the cost of supplyingimproved seed and the establishment of Government seed farm.s is the sumof Rs. 8 million for the extersion of potato cultivation which is a worthyobjective.

65. It is possible that some saving could be effected under thisheading by cutting out some of the smaller allocations for non-essentialpurposes and achieving the same level of production and distribution of

seed by concentration of effort on fewer crops and much needed intensifi-cation of management on the farm already ovined. Any savings are, however,likely to be marginal and in the lission's view t.he impor-bant considera-tion is to concentrate on getting better valu.e for the expenditure. Also,every effort should be made to extend private enterprise multiplicationunder certification schemes and in due course distribution of seed.

Fcodgrain Storage

66. The allocation of Rs. 228 million would provide a total storagecapacity of 1,8141 thousand tons, distributed as shown in the followingtable.

- 22 -

Government-owned Foodgrain Storage Capacity

(in thousand tons)

Central GovernmentEast lJest East West In

Pakis- Pakis- Pakis- Pakis- Kara- GRANDtan t,a tan tan chi' Total TOTAL

Serviceable storagecapacity in 'March' 55 150 365 - - 75 7% 590

Storage capacity addedin First Plan period 250 135 - 3 85 88 473

Storage capacity to beconstructed in Second 250 200 115 103 110 328 778Plan period

Total Storage Capacityprojected for 1965: 650 700 115 106 270 491 1,841

67. On the basis of total annual requirements of about 17 milliontons in 1959/60 and an estimated 25% en-tering commercial channels, theannual volume entering the market is in the region of 4 to 5 million tons.Goverrnnent-owned storage capacity is now estimated at about 1 million tonsand is to be increased to 1.8 rillion tons by 1965. In addition there issubstantial privately oined capacity which will be used to an in.-creasing extent with the reduction of controls on food distribution. Al-though the need for Government held reserves will call for some additionalstorage in some areas the Mission feels that a careful re-assessment ofstorage needs could offer some opportunity for saving and re-allocation.

Agricultural Extension

68. The sum allocated for this service is only Rs. 20 million. Inview of the need for strengthening and the vital role that the service must

play in relation to the full exploitation of all other investment, and thestimulation of private investment, it should be a strong candidate for any

funds available from savings in other sectors. The provision of more trans-

port, ad-visory aids equipment ard more personnel are urgent matters.

Agricultural Research

69. The total allocation of Rs, 24 million is divided between the twoProvinces in the proportions of Rs. 7 million for the East ard Rs. 17 mil-lion for the West. Again the total is very inadequate in relation to the

need and every effort should be made to transfer additional funds. Greatas the need is, however, for the immediate future, apart from specialprojects this must take second place to extension.

- 23 -

Agricultural Education

70. This section has been increased by Es. 60 million in the recentreview referred to above and the new figure of Rso 100 million wvhich ismore than double the original allocation is more in keeping with the ncedsof the situation. The Mission has no precise inforn'ation on how thisadditional money is to be employed but in principIe agrees with the alloca-tion. It is appreciated that the investment will not show any return inthe Plan period but it is an essential preparation to meet the increasingdemand for technical officers as development proceeds.

Colonizat-on

710 Of the total allocation of' Rs, 50 mnillion, sorre Rs. 127 mil-lion are for the purchase of heavy machinery for land development (Rs. tt4million) are directly concerned with the colonization of new land becomi ngavailable in the Barrage areas in iest Pakistan. Rs. 15 million is forthe rehabilitation of 24,OCO agricultural families on Government culti-vab-le wasteland in East Pakistan, There could be a saving under thisheading if the colonizati.on of some part of the new larid associated i_.ththe Thal and tlhe Gudu Barrages were deferred but this would probably beoffset by increases in the Ghulam Mohammnad Barrage and Taunsa areas.

Animal Husbandry

72. The total allocation of Rs. 132 million is divided as follows:

(million rupees)

Disease control 4.2Breeding 26.1Education and research 19.6Dairying 2h. 9Metropolitan abattoir l1.OOther 7.2

Total 132.0

73. The 1M1ission fee'ls that there are good grounds for looking againat the expenditure on breeding and research. It has also been suggestedthat there might be a re-allocation of duties between the Animal Husbandryand the Agricultural Departments but any savings resulting from the abovesections would be fully committed for the development of animal husbandryextension work.

Forest ry

7h. This allocation has been increased by Rs. 17 million in the recentreview and the purpose for which the addition has been made is not known tothe M.ission. The revised total allocation is now Rs. 151 million. Priorto this addition the distribution of expenditures was:

(million rupees)

Extraction and utilization 45•1Afforestation and regeneration 57.6Research and education 22.0Other schemes 9.1

Total 133.8

The Mission appreciates the great scope for development of forest resourcesbut feels that this allocation should be re-examined with a view to apossible transfer of fuiids to more urgent ard pressing needs.

Fisheries

75. An allocaition of Rs. 50 million is divided in the proportions ofRs. 16 million for East, Rs, ! million for West and Rs 30 million for theCenter. Broadly speaking, the provincial allocations are for fresh waterfisheries and the Center allocation for marine fisheries. The allocationis to be spent roughly as follocwTs:

(million rupees)

Development and conservation 27X0Marketi-'ng 1• ,ORecearch and education 8.O

500

76. The scope for development of fisheries is great and this is an-other case where the Mission would direct attention to the need to ensurethat the money is vell utilized rather than seriously question the amount.

B, Water Deve.-hpment

77, The Second Plan allocation of Rs. 3,1h0 million for water andpower development represents an annual rate of expenditures about 18%above the level reached in 1959/60, the last year of the First Plan, Arevised estimate prepared in April 1961 inzreases these allocations toRs. 4,140 million, or an annual rate 56,'l higher than in 1959/600 In addi-tion, the Indus Settlemient Works is expected - on present tentative esti-rates by 1ABDA - to require about Rs. 3,230 million during the Plan period,bringing total public expenditures for water and power development toRs. 7,370 million, or roughly the same as all public development expen-ditures during the First Plan. Expenditures relating primarily to waterdevelopment (excluding Indus) amount to approximately Rs. 2,377 millionon the basis of the latest estimates.

Public Expenditures for Water DeveloLnent

(million rupees)

Second Plan RevisedAllocations Increases Allocations

West Pakistan

Kotri barrage (G.M.barrage) 73.30 - 73.30Gudu barrage 174L70 10.0 184.7OTaunsa barrage 14.40 14.40Thal project 6.20 6.20Warsak 11.90 11.90Other irrigation schemes 75.23 75.23Drainage, reclamation & tubewelln 228.80 107.0 335.80Flood regulation 64.70 64.70Open canals U1000 110000Investigations and surveys 76.60 11.0 87.60Machinery pool 30.00 30.0 60.00Rawal Dam - 9.0 9.00Kurram Garhi - 30.0 30.00

865.83 197.0 1,062.83

East Pakistan

Ganges Kobadak (K1ushtia) 120.00 20.0 140.00Ganges Kobadak (2nd Unit) 120.00 120.00Teesta barrage 170.00 170.00Khulna multipurpose 161.40 16 1.40Reclamation of Hoar area 50.00 50.ooInvestigations and surveys 71.07 71.07Flood regulation 145.49 11.0 156.49nidal embanlkments 100.00 160.0 260.00Ground water development and

piump irrigation 24.oo 24.00Tengon irrigation 54.00 54.00Machinery pool 30.00 30.00Other 66.99 10.0 76.22

1,112.95 201.0 1,313.95

Sub-total 1,978.78 398.0 2,376.78

Indus Settlement Plan 3,230.00

Grand Total 1X978.78 398.0 5,606.78I 8__ej667

- 26 -

78. In addition to this program, Government has recently called for amaster plan to meet the serious problem of waterlogging and salinity whichhas already seriously reduced yields over large areas in lfest Pakistan andput considereble areas out of production. Government has recently decidedto carry out a program of Rs. Lo500 to Rs. 5,500 million over a 10-yearperiod. Amounts already in the Second Plan for comrbating waterloggingand salinity may possibly be increased by an additional Rs. 1,000 toRs. 1500 million as a result of a full scale effort to meet this problem.

79. The capacity for carrying out r!ater and power development projectshas been substantially increased with the creation of the autonomous Waterand Fower Development Authorities (I,AFDA) in each Wing and the employmentof consultants and contractors. The sharp increase in expenditures duringthe past tw;o years indicates that a program of the size originally proposedunder the Second Plan would have been quite feasibleo The much higher ex-penditures now projected there create some doubt vhether th_ program can befully carried out even with large-scale emplo-yment of outside technical,administrative and managerial talent.

West Pakistan

80. Expenditures are largely for completion of projects which arealready underway. Only one third of the total expenditures are for newprojects, almost all of which consist of drainage, reclamation and tube-well projects designed to meet the pressing problem of -aterlogging andsalinity. Considering the advanced stage of many of the ongoing projectsand the importance of inmpioved water supply as a factor in increasing yieldsin W4est Pakistan, it is difficult to cut the poroposed programn materiallywithout risking investments already made. Since the Indus Settlement P'lanWorks must be given top priority it will be necessary to re-assess priori-ties and defer or rephase some expenditures with a view toward assuring com-pletion of the most urgent projects. The Mission assumes that changes inthe pattern of water availability resulting from the Indus Basin SettlementWZorks are being taken into full consideration in the comprehensive studycf water resources now being carried out by WAPDA consultants. Both agri-cultural aspects as well as engineering considerations should be investi-gated and planned well in advance.

81, As a general principle, the Mission favors giving priority tothose projects which can be expected to yield quick results. This wouldcall for concentration on those ongoing projects which are nearing comple-tion, such as the Ghulam Mohaammad Barrage and the Taunsa Barrage areas,deferring colonization ald land development on the newer projects such asGudu, and drastically reducing further development of marginal lands inthe Thal. New projects such as the Karachi Irrigation Project, Tanda Damand Khanpur Dam should probably be deferred. The program for controllingwaterlogging and salinity through drainage, tubewells and reclamationdeals primarily with existing irrigation systems and can be expected togive relatively quick benefits as soon as the engineering works are com-pleted. Provided results of the first major tubewell projewLs (the RechnaDoab Salinity Control and Reclamation Project) bear out these expectations,the Mission feels that some acceleration in the rate of expenditures inthis category may be possible. Detailed comments cn some of the majorprojects in West Pakistan are discussed in Appendix A.

- 27 -

East Pakistan

82 ~ A much larger proportion of the projects are new and consequentlythere is much more scope for re-assessing priorities. pn the other hand,because of lirnited investment in the past there is much more scope and needfor development. There are also a number of quick maturing projects withfavorable cost benefit ratios. At the same time, however, the Plan in-cludes a number of large-scale irrigation developments of the type which inthe past have proved to be slow maturing and expensive due to inadequaatestudies and unfortunate mistakes. A number of these might well be deferredfor the time being to allow for more careful engineering and agriculturalstudies to prepare the way for more rapid implementation at a later stage.

83. For the time being, every effort should be made to completeprojects for better control of flood waters and salt water intrupion andpump irrigation. Relatively little work has been done along these linesdespite strong recommendations by the United Nations Water Oontro. Missionin 1956/57. Experience in other countries, such as Burma, indicates thatthese types of projects are relatively inexpensive, require relativelysimple engineering, can be quickly executed and can yield extremely highbenefits. The most promising projects include the Coastal Embankments,the poldering aspects of the Khulna MuItipurpose Project and various smallflood embankment and drainage improvement schemes. The program of theDepartment of Agriculture and 1APDA for development of small pumps in thehacr areas and the Raishahi Pabna areas also offer considerable promise.,In the Nission's view, all of these projects should have the highest priority.

84. The large multipurpose developments should be deferred for thetime being. Due to the many changes and delays the Kushtia Unit of theGanges Kobadak project is now expected to be completed in I963, nquch laterand at a much higher cost than initially envisaged. In view of the largesums already invested and existing contractual obligationo' the rissionfeels that the project should be completed provided that outstanding un-certainties have been resolved. Every effort should be made to bring aboutquick and effective use of the additional water supplies which will becom.eavailable. Stage II of the Ganges Kobadak, the irrigation aspects ofKhulna l'M,ultipurpose, the Teesta Barrage, the Brahmaputra MIultipurpose, theYeghna, Tippera Chittagong and the Sangu should probably be deferred untilthe Third Plan in order to permit concentration on quicker maturing projectsand to permit more adequate preparation.

85. Detailed comments on some of the major projects in East Pakistanare discussed in Appendix B.

- 28 -

V. FACTORS INFLUENCING PRODUCTION PROSPECTS

86. There is a good deal of agreement on what are the main problemsstanding in the way of rapid progress in agricultural production. Theposition has been carefully analyzed by the Planning Commission and morerecently by the Food and Agriculture Commission, and both have publisheddetailed reports which have been drawn on by the Mission. The basicissue is to raise the level of food production - with emphasis on food-grains - from its present very low position in the shortest possible time.There is no technical reason why this should not be done and, at the lowerlevels of improvement there is fairly broad agreement on the steps thatare necessary. The real problem at this stage is one of implementation.

A. Administrative Policies

87. Almost every examination and report on the situation rightlyemphasizes the heavy demand which execution of the Plan will make on ad-ministrative and technical skill. The Mission agrees that much willdepend upon the administrative policies and measures adopted. In theory,agricultural development has been given the highest priority but it isdoubtful whether all the good intentions have been translated into effec-tive action. The stimulus that such high priority should provide has notgone right down the line and certainly it did not appear to have reachedthe point of contact with the farmers. Throughout there appeared to be alack of any real sense of urgency and though many cases of individualenthusiasm were encountered, the overall co-ordinated spirit of attackwhich the situation demands was lacking.

88. Amongst the many reasons for this uninspired administration arethe low status still accorded to agriculture compared with other services;the frustrations generated by the rigidity of ¢ivil service procedures inrelation to the needs of a developmental administration, and the statu8gulf created between the administrative and technical staff. The positionis fully appreciated by many of those responsible and has been clearlypointed out by the Food and Agriculture Commission. The solution, how-ever, is not simple. There undoubtedly is a serious shortage of trainedand competent technical and administrative personnel and changes in orga-nization can only help to the extent that they are more effectively em-ployed. To find the right solution to the problem of implementatio,which is partly one of motivation and partly one of administrativemechanics, is a matter of the utmost importance. A good deal has alreadybeen done to improve matters. In addition to some streamlining of finan-cial control within the departmental set-up, several specially constitutedbodies have been created to deal with particular activities where it wasevident that the departmental approach was unsatisfactory. kbre recently,the Food and Agriculture Commission has devoted a great deal of thoughtto this portion and has come to the conclusion that the objective cannotbe achieved within the civil service and departmental structure. It hasrecommended the establishment of an autonomous Agricultural DevelopmentCorporation in each Province.

- 29 -

89. As soon as these Development Corporations are established, thetransfer of responsibility from existing departments and agencies w7illno doubt be considerable. Further responsibilities will be transferredgradually over a period and in the light of experience, but it appearsthat most of the existing departments retain some functions. Presumablythere will be some amalgamations but most of them will continue to operatethough on a reduced scale. The new organizations will have to be staffedand equipped and will have to develop their ovn procedures. The need forreform in the continuing Government departments remains and the necessityto provide a new link between the Corporations and the Government depart-ments arises. Such a major change cannot be made without a good deal ofdislocation but removal of the uncertainty which has prevailed for sometime and the determination which such a bold decision implies should pro-vide some stimulus and help the difficult transition from the existing tothe new organization.

90. In order to recruit and maintain agricultural services capableof discharging the task ahead it will be necessary to have a thorough re-consideration of emoluments and promotion policies for the agriculturalservices and to equate their status with that of other provincial personnel.There should also be an overhaul of the administrative mechanism, leadingto more delegation of responsibility and greater freedom of action atoperational level so as to avoid unnecessary bureaucratic delays. Trainedadministrative and technical capacity is undoubtedly one of the scarceresources. In order to use w7hat is available to the best advantage itnust be skillfully deployed and as far as practicable extended by mobi-lizing community participation through the basic democracies and encourag-

ing private enterprise wherever it can make a contribution. The scarcityalso underlines the need for more pre-service and in-service training.

91. Ways must be found to reduce still further the in-built conflictsbetween civil service procedures and the needs of a developmental acaminis-tration. The proper role and authority of the administrator and the tech-nician must be established within the organization. This administrativereorganization will call for careful judgment and boldness, if not ruth-lessness, in action but the circurstances are compelling and the objectiveis sufficiently important to override all but the most fundamental con-siderations.

B0 Sources of Increase

92. Agriculture is the crucial sector in the Plan and the need is

for a rapid increase in production. The first aim must be increased out-put through higher yields from the existing farms and farming patterns.Of rapidly increasing importance is the contribution from newly developedor vastly improved land. Reforms of various kinds in progress or contem-plated w7ill add progressively. The key person is, of course, the farmerbut he cannot be left to his own devices, A strong motivating and support-ing organization is essential, The INLission feels strongly that there isscope fo. great improvement in this sphere.

- 30 -

93. All the factors affecting production are so interrelated that itcan be misleading to examine them in isolation or to allocate individualpriorities. They tend to fall into two main groups: (1) those which canbe put into operation quickly and give almost inmediate resu>cs; and(2) those which are more difficult to apply and in general taKe longer toyield their full benefit. The first group includes such things as betterseed, better water use, more fertilizer, plant protection measures, betterhusbandry practices and easier credit. The second group is much wider andincludes development of water resources, development of land resources)agricultural education, extension and research, as well as major reformssuch as consolidation, land tenure, rural credit, co-operative farming,etc.

94. The IMission appreciates that all the above factors are inter-dependent and that a proper balance must be maintained in their applicationbut in our view the tv'o outstanding ones are fertilizer and water. If theposition could be reached where most of the irrigated area had an adequatesupply of water and, in conjunction with other good husbandry practicesmost of the cropped area was receiving a reasonable application of balancedfertilizer, much of the immediate problem of increased production would beovercome. The provision of this combination - water and fertilizer - tothe maximum area should be the first objective.

95. A note on the most important of the factors follows.

THE QUICK RESPONSE FACTORS

A. Improved Seed

96. To obtain the benefit of good seed of the right variety for thelocation and purpose is obviously an important objective but one which isnot easily fully attained. It demands systematic plant breeding, varietytesting, carefully controlled multiplication and continuous trial andobservation in the field. Such an organization cannot be set up quicklyand then will take several years to produce a flow of soundly based recom-mendations and supplies. Two major considerations for the immediate futureare (1) to ensure (and demonstrate convincingly) that the improved seeddistributed is in fact appreciably better than that being currently usedin a district; and (2) to make this better seed easily available and toensure that it is used on a scale that will more than repay - in terms ofadded yield - the cost of all scarce resources that go into its production.

97e The acreage planted with "improved seed" in the last year of theFirst Plan, compared with the total acreage of the crop is shown in thefollowing table.

- 31 -

Acres Sown With PercentAcres "Improved Seed" 0-

Crop T(T000) _ (;0 Ts-r:al

Rice 24l.1125 1310,0 .5Wheat 12,193 4815c0 3.9Bajra 1,990 - -Jawar 1),128 - -Maize 1,199 110 .9Barley 630 _ _

Total Foodgrains 41,265 623.0 1.5

Gram 2,954 160o0 5 4

Total Food Crops 44,219 783.0 1.7

Sugar cane 1,261 2.0 .1Rape and mustard 1,965 )210uO 96Sesamum 218 )Jute 1,375 10.0 .7Cotton 3,370 1,232.0 36e5Tea 78 - -Tobacco 205

52)691 2,237.0 42

98. Wlith the notable exception of maize - in which case the assumedincrease is h45 maunds per acre - the increase ascribed to the use ofbetter seed from the other food crops is a quarter of a maund per acre(20.5 lbs.). It is fairly obvious that - unless the level of increase peracre and the number of aeres to which it applies can be substantially in-creased - the net benefit must be very small, if not negative. The success,limited in scale but spectacular in achievement and promiseb, shown bybreeding work on hybrid maize and cotton points to what could be done andshows that widespread demand will quickly follow the offering of somethingcomrrercially attractive.

99. Compared vith the First Plan figures shown in the above table,which range from 0.5 to 4%, the Second Plan aims at around 50% of each ofthe major crops being grown from "improved seed" by the end of the period.

100, If this is to be achieved it will be necessary to pursue a muchmore enlightened and more active policy. Presumably now that the Food andAgriculture Commissionts recommendations have been accepted, the wholebusiness of seed production and distribution will be taken over by theservice wings of the proposed Agricultural Development Gorporations.Assuming that these bodies can provide the necessary business and mana-gerial skills, it will still be necessary to maintain the closest possiblelink with aggressive research to ensure that maximum benefit is obtainedthrough development of the best varieties. This is clearly a complex

- 32 -

problem when the number of crops, the variety of conditions and the dif-ferent purposes to be fulfilled are taken into consideration and it willbe necessary to establish priorities and concentrate on the more importantand more promising crops first. The multiplication of seed by registeredgrowers under certification schemes and, in due course, commercial dis-tribution should be encouraged. Government or quasi-Government farms andpersonnel should concentrate on the production of foundation seed andgeneral supervision.

B. Fertilizer and Manures

101. There is little doubt that a rapid increase in the proper use offertilizers can bring about the biggest, the quickest and probably thecheapest increase in production that can be foreseen in the imnediatefuture. This should be regarded as a key factor in the whole program butthe impression that it is simply a matter of putting on more and morenitrogen must be emphatically corrected.

102. It must be firmly established that fertilizers are a profitablesupplement to, and not a substitute for, other good husbandry practices.If inadequate water, poor seed, or bad cultivation is the limiting factor,no aiiount of additional fertilizer will make good the deficiency. Also,all the processes involved in production, including fertilizer utiliza-tion, will be made more effective if the physical, as well as the nutri-tional status of the soil is improved. Prevailing crop yields are remark-ably low, which in many cases is a reflection of the soil's pcor physicalcondition as well as its low nutritional status. Anything which can bedone to encourage the addition of organic matter to the soil, either inthe form of waste, dung or compost or suitable forms of green manuring,will almost certainly improve the efficiency of fertilizer usage. Undersuch low fertility conditions it is also highly probable that fertilizerplacement will yield very profitable responses and the spread of linesowing should make this more feasible.

103. Apart from the direct benefit of fertilizer application withinthe present pattern, its proper use should remove much of the necessity forthe traditional 25% under fallow over much of the intensively populatedirrigation areas. Where the additional water can be made available thisshould bring about a very marked increase in production with fuller utiliza-tion of existing resources and very little demand on new resources.

104. V!hilst over large areas the first obvious benefits from fertilizerusage can be taken immediately, when it becomes a matter of advising on theoptimum economic levels, the position is almost unexplored. A promisingbeginning has been made at one or two centers and with the FAO-sponsoredrapid soil fertility survey. There is an urgent need for more research,and extended field trials, to establish the right pattern of fertilizerpractice for the range of crops and varieties grown under different con-ditions of soil, water application, climate, etc.

- 33 -

105. Fertilizer use in Pakistan is relatively new and, though the rateof growth is impressive, it is still on a very small scale. This low rateof usage coupled with the remarkably low yield of crops implies great possi-bilities. It is important that growth should be along the right lines.This calls for guiding research but, in the absence of this, it is necessaryto draw attention to the need for a balanced fertilizer policy. At thepresent time, fertilizer in practice means nitrogen as the figures belowdemonstrate. Both on immediate economic grounds and in the long term fer-tility interest, emphasis must be given to the application of more phosphateand potash.

106e The limited amount of information available strongly supportsbalanced application. In most locations phosphate and, more selectivelypotash, in addition to nitrogen gives good economic increases in the im-mediate crop. In addition there will be some residual benefit. Over largeareas the level of fertility is already very low as the result of manyyears of exhaustive husbandry and poor standards of cultivation. A fertilitybuilding policy is badly needed and this will not be achieved by nitrogenalone. Apart from the major elements some "blunderbuss research" mightreveal valuable benefits to be obtained from some of the minor elements.Maximum effort should be made to speed up information regarding the bestcombinations of fertilizers on a regional and crop basis and then to en-courage appiopriate application of balanced fertilizer. Possibly the for-mulation of suitable compounds would be the best way of doing this.

107. The First Plan program gathered momentum towards the end of theperiod. The target for 1959/60 was 360,000 tons of sulphate of azrmoniaequivalent and about 160,000 tons was distributed. Whilst this is wellunder 50% of the target it represents a substantial increase on 43,000 tonswhich was the level of distribution in the first year. The Second Plantargets to be attained by 1964/65 are shown below under types of fertilizer.

Targets of Consumption of Fertilizers, 196L/65

(in thousand tons)

Ammonium Ammonium Super Muriate ofProvince Urea Nitrate Sulphate phosphate Potash Total

East Pakistan 117 - 10 120 10 257West Pakistan 59 103 50 70 5 287

Total 176 103 60 190 15 544

The following table compares the target with past and currentperformance in terms of plantfood:

Fertilizer Consumption in Terms of Plant Food(in tons)

Target1955/56 1959/60 196L/65

Nitrogen 8,000 32,000 120,000Phosphoric Acid - 1,000 76,000Potash - 8,000

- 34 -

108. Experience has showm the value of fertilizer subsidy in popular-

izIng its use and it would appear to be desirable that this should con-

tinue at a substantial (if diminishing) level for some time to come. Also,

in addition to assembling the much needed technical information through

research and applying it energetically through extension, it will be

necessary to develop a satisfactory fertilizer distribution system with

built-in provision for short-term credit in kind. Presumably, as with

other similar services, this will now become the duty of the Agricultural

Development Corporations.

109. Encouragement of fertilizer use should be given top priority but

it must be recognized that in many locations other limiting factors -

particularly shortage of water - may severely limit its usefulness or even

make it uneconomic. Every effort should be made to remove these. The

Mission regards the increasing use of fertilizer along with the better use

of water as the tvo out-tanding points in the drive for a quick increase

of agricultural production.

C. Plant Protection

110. Heavy losses from Tr-ŽSts and diseases occur both in the field and

in the store and to this must be added losses through competition or con-

tamination with weeds. Many of these losses are avoidable and to the ex-

tent that the cost of preventative action yields a better return than the

same resources are likely to yield if invested in other phases of the pro-

duction effort, it is fully justified.

111. During the First Five-Year Plan a large and relatively well

equipped Government-operated, plant protection organization has been de-

veloped. During the Plan period the acreage of crops treated increased

from about 200,OC0 to 1.3 million acres ard the seed treated with preventa-

tive chemicals from about sufficient for 300,000 acres to sufficient for

3 million acres. The plant protection service has directly undertaken all

the 'work involved and (with the partial exception of tea and sugar) at no

cost to the farmers. It is run virtually as a separate service, partly

inside and partly outside the Provincial Departments of Agriculture. In

the case of West Pakistan, there are probably as many officers of the plant

protection service at the point of contact with the farmer as there are

extension officers concerned with promoting all other aspects of production.

112. This heavy endowment with resources and virtually a 1C0% subsidy

to the few benefiting from the service may have been fully justified to

get the service established. It now seems desirable, from every point of

view, that the responsibility (physical and financial) for carrying out

routine plant protection measures should be transferred to the farmer. It

is probable that a subsidy will be necessary for some time to help the

transition.

113. There 'would appear to be a strong case for the view held in some

quarters that most of the plant protection work should be merged with the

general Agricultural Extension Service which is so badly in need of

strengthening.

- 35 -

l]L. The Yission supports this so long as it is limited to the tech-nical aspects of the work, i.e. not the operatiornal side. The transfer ofthis responsibility together with the large numbers of qualified staff atpresent working exclusively on plant protection should have considerableadvantages. Since the two types of work are closely related technicallyand cover the same ground physically, the better organizational efficiencyand better seasonal distribution of work should yield a substantial netgain.

D. Better Husbandry Practices

115. It is probably in this section that the extension service facesits most difficult task. It includes better water management (to the extentthat this is within the farmers control), leveling of fields, better andmore timely cultivation, better seedbed preparation, line sowing, weeding,etc. It i3 by no means easy to get large numbers of tradition-bound,small scale farmers with no margin of safety in their food supplies and nofinancial reserves to make changes but it is essential for the success ofthe production program that it be done. Farmers will only adopt thesemore demanding methods when they are convinced that it is in their own in-terests to do so. Such convi;.tion is only likely to be won in the fieldsby ir-eans of well-conducted demonstrations under typical conditions andpreferably on a whole farm or pilot farm scale. It is not enoagh just totell the farmer what to do; the extension worker and the farmer must reallywork together and the benefits accruing must be measured and made known interms of quantitative and financial advantage. These practices demand sus-tained effort as well as skill and judgment on the part of both the farmerand the extension worker and no matter how well conceived and skillfullyexecuted the extension campaign aimed at bringing them about, progress islikely to be slow in the early stages. There is, however, a fair amountof evidence that farmers will take up ideas which are sound and are soundlypresented to them. Examples which the Mission saw during their travels in-clude the concentrations of line sowing of rice in districts where the ideahad been soundly propagated, the heavy demand for hybrid maize seed, therapid and often almost complete change to a newT superior variety introducedinto a district, the sinking of private tubewells to get more water, etc.In spite of their difficulties and limitations there are indications thatmany farmers are ready to move forward if they can be shown how and helpedalong.

E. Easy Credit

116. The wider problem of general agricultural credit is referred tolater. Here wve are concerned only with the immediate problem of supplyingthe short-term credit for the direct factors of increased production. Inparticular credit in kind for seed, fertilizer, plant protection materialsand simple tools of cultivation.

- 36 -

117. In the long term this service will have to be provided by the Co-

operatives and other recognized sources of credit but - if these agenciesare to be soundly based - their build-up vrill take a long time. The need

for this kind of short-term credit exists now and should grow much faster

than the probable rate of growth of the orthodox credit agencies and stepsmust be taken to fill this gap.

118. The most practicable arrangement would appear to be a rapid ex-

pansion of the system now working in the model areas in East Pakistan.

In these areas, with the help of I.C.A., union stores have been built and

until such time as a local co-operative can be formed - or presumably aprivate merchant can take over - a Government paid clerk/storekeeper hasbeen installed. In addition to selling seed and fertilizer for cash hecan supply against a bond certified by the Chairman of the Union Councilor other authorized local official. The farmer concerned is expected toredeem the bond after harvest but if he fails to do so, the job of collec-tion falls to the revenoe service which is well equipped for such a task.VIhether th-~ xponsoring authority for such a service is the Government orthe Agricultural Development Corporation, it is essential that the exten-sion officers should be freed from all routine duties connected with thesupply and distribution of materials (which takes up so much of his timeat pIr-sent). These union stores should, however, be used as one of thecha r.els to enccurage farmers to seek the guidance and advice of the ex-tension officer in the use of new materials and techniques. In some casesit might be wJise to make it a condition of the credit that the supplies beused in accordance with the advice of the local extension off cer.

THE LOCGER TERjI FAKCTORS.

119. Turning to the second, rather more basic, group of factors in-

fluencing the production prospects, the first of these - development of

water resources - is of outstanding importance and must play a prominent

part in both the immediate and long-term production prospects: Controlled

water is without doubt the most important single factor in Pakistan'sagricultural development. When controlled water - intelligently applied -can be coupled with adequate fertilizer usage, much of the low productivity

difficulty will have been overcome.

A. Development of Water Resources

120. In !VTest Pakistan, 58% of the land under cultivation depends upon

irrigation (24 million acres). In East Pakistan the area under irrigationis very small, only about 600,000 acres. Although rainfall is plentiful

during the summer, lack of irrigation facilities during the dry months

limits production and precludes double cropping of considerable areas which

are othernse suitable.

121. There is tremendous scope and need for water control in East

Pakistan. As resources become available and the necessary hydrological

and soil studies can be completed the program should be given increasing

priority and acceleration.

- 37 -

West Pakistan

122, The most important area in West Pakistan is the Indus Basin. Outof a total of 116 million acres in the Indus Basin, 40 million are culti-vated and of this about 30 million acres are sown in an average year. About23 million acres (75% of the sown area) are irrigated. This forms thelargest irrigation area based on one river system in the world. This irri-gated area contains over 60% of West Pakistan's wheat acreage, nearly 90%of the rice and about 95% of the cotton grown in the Province.

123. Unfortunately the area was laid out and the water rates ) fixedto meet very different conditions from those prevailing today. It wasdesigned for low cropping intensity and low water usage per acre. In thechanged circumstances the area presents some problems which demand specialconsideration in the agricultural development program. Pressing questionswhich arise are:

L) What is the correct water rate for more intensiveThnd use and to give optimum returns under modernfarming conditions?

2) How can the existing canal system be modified tomeet this?

3) How to deal with the serious threat of waterloggingand salinity?

124. All these questions are extremely difficult to answer. The exist-ing system is related to low intensity farming. Even on pererriial canalsabout 25% is under fallow; 25% under summer crop and 50% under winter crop.More research is necessary before anyone can say with confidence what theoptimum water rates for given areas and cropping patterns should be. It isfairly certain that an increase in the present water rates to much of thearea would give the quickest and highest returns that can be envisaged fromany additional supplies that can be made available. The present low waterrate is one of the causes of the serious salinity problems and undoubtedlyputs a severe limit on progress through the application of known and provedtechnological advances. A more ample supply, with drainage, would help torelieve salinity and would facilitate the better use of fertilizers. Withthis development, in addition to increased yields per acre, much of thefallow could be eliminated.

125. It has been estimated that equipped land is going out of productionas the result of waterlogging and salinity at the rate of about 100,000 acresper year and the area adversely affected in varying degrees up to this pointof total loss must be many times greater. This is a complex problem in-volving water rates, irrigation practice and drainage. It is of such magni-tude that no effort should be spared to minimize the growing threat to cur-rent levels of production and to rehabilitate as much as possible of thealready damaged area. The Mission agrees with the need for a Master Planto deal with this problem in a comprehensive way in principle and supportsthe recent decision of the Government along these lines.

*) Quantity of water applied per unit of land.

-38 -

126. The comprehensive survey of water resources which the WAPDA hasinitiated in Vlest Pakistan is of prime importance. When this is com-pleted it should give valuable information on the total amount of waterlikely to be available and provide guidance on the best way to exploit it.

127. Up to 1959, about 72 million acre-feet are estimated to have beenused for irrigation in the Indus system. On completion of the schemes inprogress an additional 26 million acre-feet will be added. This total, 98million acre-feet, represents about 71% of the average flow of the threewestern rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) and beyond this additional sup-plies of regulated water from this source must be made available, mainlythrough storage, One of the weaknesses in the development of water whichhas been pointed out many times and was apparent to the Mission, is thelack of effective co-ordination between the engineers responsible for sup-lying the water and the agriculturists responsible for using it. Insteadof the projects being :jointly planned from the ground upwards (soil type,cropping Fa-3tern, water requirements, etc.) it has tended to work theother way round. The orgineers worked in relative isolation until theypresent the agriculturists with water to be used on the principle ofmaking the best of what is provided instead of a supply and distributionsystem tailored to the needs of the situation. Apart from the guidancethat a joint approach could give to the design, the present detachedappr,oach overlooks the need for proper preparation at the farm level bythe other services so that the areas will be as well prepared as possibleto take full advantage of the water quickly when it becomes available.

128. The guiding principle in determining priorities for the utili-zation of additional supplies becoming available would appear to be:(1) to provide the optimum water rate to the existing good productionareas where lack of water is the main limiting factor; (2) to provideadditional water to developed areas for the more economic phases of re-habilitation and reclamation; and (3) to provide water for the developmentof new land.

129. The fuller employment of tubewells and, in some location lowlift pumps, is implicit in what has been said earlier in connection withbringing existing supplies of water into line with the needs of modernfarming and a development program. The survey of ground water suppliesand any form of guidance and service which will encourage the sounddevelopment of these means of providing an irrigation supply or supple-mrentary water should be supported.

East Pakistan

130. In East Pakistan the development of the vast water resources isin its infancy but there is great need and scope. The cultivated area ismostly lowland plain built by the delta forming activity of the Ganges,the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. It is tropical and humid with heavy andhighly seasonal rainfall, 85% of which occurs in the monsoon period -

May-September. Most of the area is less than 50 feet above sea level.

- 39 -

131. On the higher ground not subject to flooding, jute or paddy isgrown only in the rainy season. During the dry season a small area is

cropped under winter crops such as pulses. Irrigation could ensure against

drought (and so famine) and make double, and even triple, cropping much

more widespread.

132. The river flood plains remain under water during the high floods

and cannot be cultivated at that time. Paddy is grown when the water re-

cedes. Flood regulation and irrigation by gravity or pumping could greatlyreduce the high risk element in these areas. Similarly, in the low lying

areas which remain under water during the wet season ("haor" areas) pumpirrigation offers considerable opportunity for developing and assuredwinter (boro) paddy.

133. There are large potentially fertile coastal areas which are sub-ject to intrusion of saline seawater which could be made much more produc-tive by the provision of protect .ve embankments and irrigation. Also,large tracts which remain under water for most of the year, some of which

could be drained and brought under cultivation.

134. Whilst it might be taken as a guiding principle over the wholefield, the Mission felt with particular reference to East Pakistan, thatpri :itLy should be given to those projects which are likely to yield quickreturns both in terms of increased food production and in the developmentof experience. In emphasizing this point there is no suggestion of sub-stituting expediency for sound long-term development. The two are not inconflict. In East Pakistan, work on coastal embankments and ->Lood control,drainage and the rapid development of irrigation based on low lift pumpscould bring a large area of land into higher production quickly. In thecircumstances this would appear to be a better investment of resourcesthan in major schemes with a high capital demand and long deferred benefits.The immediate investment of resources in the low lift pump and similarquick yielding projects need not hinder progress with the investigationand planning of major schemes. It will, however, allow more time for thisand in the meantime provide experience which will be invaluable when thebig schemes come along.

135. The total area of East Pakistan is about 35.4 million acres, ofwhich 24.2 million acres are cultivable, and about 21 million acres are

sown in an average year. Only 600,000 acres are irrigated and only about

7 million acres are double cropped. Adequate information is not availableto determine an ultimate irrigation target. It has been estimated that inthe long run the cultivated land could be ircreased to 26 million acreswith 24 million acres sown in an average year and about 13 million acrescould be irrigated. Much of this could be double cropped.

136. Progress in the Provision of Water. - In 1955 the irrigated area

in both Provinces was 22.7 million acres (about 37% of the total cultivated).During the First Plan this was increased to 24 million acres - an increase

of 1.3 million acres. A further 2.57 million acres was improved throughdrainage, flood regulation or regulated supplies. The progress in reclama-

tion of saline soils and drainage of waterlogged areas was limited.

- 40 -

137. If the Second Five-Year Plan proposals were carried out as en-visaged, an additional 2.4 million acres vould be irrigated for the firsttime and an area of 7.1 million acres would be improved through depressionof water table, salinity control and an assured water supply.

B. Development of Land Resources

138. The total land area of the country is 234 million acres (36 mil-lion in East and 198 million in West Pakistan). The total cultivatedarea is about 6 2million acres and the remaining almost 75% is either rough,sparse grazing, forested, unreported or unclassified. Included in this aresome 24 million acres of cultivable waste, some of which could be broughtinto production when irrigation, drainage and reclamation facilities can bemade available. The net area planted to crops is about 52 million acres(21 in East Pakistan and 31 in West Pakistan); 10 million acres being cur-rently fall.cw. Abou.t 10 million acres (3 in West and 7 million in EastPakistan) are sown more than once a year. This double cropping could beincreased rrarkedly - especially in East Pakistan - by the provision ofcontrolled water.

139. The development of virgin land - or the substantial improvement ofold - is to a very great extent tied up with the previous section as in mostcases it is dependent u-pon the provision of water for irrigations As pre-viously stated, the various measures scheduled to be undertaken during theSecond Five-Year Plan would result in 2.4 million acres of new land and 7.1million acres of substantially improved land becoming available~ The follow-ing table shows the location and the project to which this is attributable.

(in thousand acres)

Project New Area Improved Area

West PakistanKotri barrage 800Thal project 500 -Gudu project 180 945Salinity control project 150 843Drainage schemes - 3,600Taunsa project 67 400Other schemes 518 197

Sub-total 2,215 5,985

East PakistanTidal embankment 100 200Khulna multipurpose scheme 25 100Teesta barrage 25 50Ganges-Kobadak - 100Comprehensive drainage

scheme, Faridpur - 200Dredging of River Gumti - 100Other schemes 80 377

Sub-total 230 1,127

TOTAL 2,1445 7,112

- 41 -

140. The Plan estimates that the 7 million acres of improved landwill add about 400,000 tons of foodgrains per year by 1965. Of the 2.4million acres of virgin land, the Plan estinates that 1.7 million acreswill be colonized and developed and will yield harvests during the Planperiod. This should add a further 460,000 tons of foodgrains per year,i.e. 860,000 tons in all from this source.

1h1. Experience in colonizing and developing new areas in the recentpast has not been favorable. Benefiting from this dearly bought experiencemore direct control and a larger measure of local authority has been in-troduced. The indications are that this will improve the position but agood deal more could be done to get ciuicker and more satisfactory develop-ment. In addition to administrative and procedural hastening more mightbe done in the matter of proper lay-out of farm irrigation channels(rationalizing boladaries in the process where necessary), leveling andgrading of fJel1r, and in many cases there would appear to be merit in do-ing the init._al]I heavy cultivation work prior to occupancy.

1h2. In East Pakistan, the scope for the development of new areas forproduction is much more limited. Apart from the inundated coastal flatsand drainage referred to earlier, most of the undeveloped land is in theChittagong hill tracts. In West Pakistan there is much more scope so faras availability of land is roncerned but water is limiting. Tho aspectsof land developmeilt or preservation which call for special attention inWest Pakistan are range management and soil conservation.

143. Range Management. - There are no reliable statistics of the range-lands of West Pakistan but the total area is in the region of 150 millionacres. Rainfall is not adequate for dry farni.ng and irrigation is avail-able in only very limited quantities. In their report, the Food and Agri-culture Commission suggest that hardly 5% of the area is cultivated and thererainder is used chiefly for grazing. These sparse grazing lands, byvirtue of their extent and distribution, cover a variety of conditions andare subject to a variety of treatment but in general they are overstocked,under-equipped with fencing and water and have degenerated to the pointwhere the herbage is mostly very inferior or non-existent. Grazing practicevaries from uncontrolled, to partially controlled within tribal areas andseasonal grazing only. In the West the system involves the movement ofcattle between Pakistan and Afghanistan which, in spite of the precautionstaken, is said to add considerably to the disease problem.

14h. The Second Five-Year Plan makes a very modest allocation ofRs. 11.8 million for work on range land development, mainly on State-ownedland which will serve as a demonstration of what can be done. The programaims at improvement of herbage, the provision of supplementary and emergencyfeed, development of watering points, improvement of livestock and pre-vention and control of disease. Though it will of necessity be slow, theinitial steps must be taken towards converting this vast area of degeneraterangeland into the valuable comple-ment that it could be to the adjacentintensively populated irrigation areas.

145. Soil Conservation. - This is a serious problem in West Pakistanvhere it is estinated that over 160 million acres suffer in varying degreesfrom wind and water erosion. Widespread sheet erosion and spectacular

gully erosion are probably at their worst in the important dry land farmingcountry of the submontane region which lies to the north of the Provinceand south of the Himalayan foothills. In this region of deep alluvial soila system of arable farming and abuse of land, brought about largely throughintense population pressure, has led to quite alarming loss of good landthrough erosion. Much of the damage is now irreparable but the preventionof further devastation (and its attendant problems of siltation downstream)may i'arrant a bigger investment than is currently being made. It assumesthe same kind of importance in relation to the dry land areas as waterlog-ging and salinity does to the Indus Basin.

146. A sum of Rs. 16 million has been allocated for the Second Five-Year Plan program whicrh aims to continue with the anti-erosion work in theeight demo.1.ration are-.s and oaeks to extend this to a total of 15 areasin the upl bn:i districts, Each area will comprise a complete catchment orsub-catchment basin and the dei,monstration will include the whole range ofwork - soil, agronomy, range management, forestry, engineering - as wellas surveys and land capabilit-T classification. Admirable as this work is,it is infinitesimal compared to the need.

C. Agricultural Education, Research and Extension

147. This is a large package but the three have been put togetherbecause of the amount of common ground and common purpose. Unfortunatelythe most prominent common feature is inadequacy. The development program -which is now likely to be accelerated by the setting up of the AgriculturalDevelopment Corporations - requires a high degree of guidance and judgmentfrom trained and experienced agriculturists. Success will be in proportionto the quality and volume of this input. Experience in many countries hassho'T.m the remarkable results which can be achieved when modern scientificknowledge is effectively applied with the backing of the essential technical,administrative and supply services. In Pakistan the scope is probably abovethe average - inherently good land, unlimited labor, good water resourcesand a very low base. The building up of a body of more enlightened farmersthrough general agricultural education and an effective force of appropri-ately trained scientists and technicians to exert a powerful influence inthe application of knowledge must be a high priority.

148. It was evident to the Mission that the present facilities foragricultural education both in terms of size and standard are woefully in-adequate in relation to any reasonable judgment of need. This is true forboth Provinces but is most pronounced in East Pakistan.

149. There are at present three agricultural colleges in West Pakistanand one in East Pakistan. These four colleges - all of which turn outagricultural graduates (following a three to five year course depending upon

the standard of entry) - have a combined annual enrollment capacity of 380.

- 43 -

In addition to converting two of the colleges (Lyallpur and Dacca) into

agricultural universities, it is proposed to increase the combined enroll-ment capacity to 600 students per year during the Second Plan period. Therecent increase of Rs. 60 million to the original Plan allocation appearsto be necessarr.

150. The minimum estimated requirement of governmental agriculturaldepartments and institutions for agricultural graduates for the SecondPlan period is 1,0140 excluding any allowance for replacements due to normalwastage. The total availability of new graduates for agriculture duringthe period is estimated at 980; some 950 from Pakistan institutions and 30from institutions abroad. There is a clear and pressing need to do every-thing possible to improve the quality and increase the number of trainedworkers becoming available to the industry.

151. Much the same can be said of agricultural research. The facili-ties are inadequate and apart from ther imnmdiate environment the institu-tions tend to be isolat'd. They have poor outstation facilities and littlecontact with the extension service or other departments which could, with

advantage, use their findings as well as provide a two-way stimulation.

152, In the case of the two main industrial crops - jute and cotton -research has been put onto a commodity basis which no doubt con_entratedresources and in the prevailing circumstances may have been necessary.Continued specialization in many branches of research - including commodityas well as scientific subdivisions - will always be necessary. It is hopedhowever, that this specialization can be arranged within a larger and co-hesive research organization so that each of the specialist branches is

not repeating for itself the basic work done in another section. There is

also a need for some competent authority to keep the whole research program

under review to ensure that it is properly focussed on the current problems

and likely to meet the most pressing needs.

153. It is difficult to generalize as often the simplest problemsdepend upon intricate fundamental research but so far as it is practicable(because the inadequacy of facilities in relation to need) it would appearto be necessary to be very selective in the subjects chosen for research.

Emphasis should be given to those subjects of greatest importance, e.g.water rates and fertilizer usage, plant breeding, etc., and to those aspects'which promise quick application and large-scale benefit in the field. Inbrief, the very limited resources should, as far as practicable, be devoted

to applied rather than fundamental research and to quick yielding ratherthan long-term projects.

154. The agricultural extension service has been criticized and blamedfor much of the lack of the progress by most people commenting on the Pakis-tan situation. The Mission would not wish to disagree with much that hasbeen said or seek to defend what appears to be a rather ineffective andhamstrung service but whether so much of the blame should be put onto theservice itself or onto those responsible for the environment in which it isexpected to woxk is debatable. The service is ill-equipped in numbers and

- 44 -

quality in both Provinces, the former being the most marked deficiency inWest Pakistan and the latter in East Pakistan. It is questionable whetherthe staff available is well deployed (e.g. high proportion of time spenton non-technical duties) and certainly they were hampered in doing theirjob by lack of any service prestige ard in many cases by sheer inabilityto get around due to lack of transportation.

155. Though the Mission did not have sufficient opportunity to form aconfident independent judgment on the point it is prepared to accept thewidely held view that many of the officers are inadequately qualified and

do not command the respect and following that is necessary. On the otherhand, we did see some evidence of exceptions to this generalization and itmay well be that there are sufficient well qualified and dedicated indi-viduals to leaven the whole if the procedural and promotion arrangementscould be made more flexible and encouraging.

156. In dealing with large numbers of small scale tradition-bound andmainly illiterate farmcrs, the opportunity forinnovation through extensionis limited. The "riskt" element in overall sound recommendations must besmall. Also, it must be difficult in the close village environment forindividuals other than the leaders to deviate narkedly from what is cus-tomary. It vould appear that the extension officer must work towards com-munity acceptance of an idea through the village leaders. This may be the

chairman or an active member of the Vill ge Council, or a farmer who isrespected and vthose example is likely to be followed. 14hen the idea hasbeen accepted, the extension service still has an important role to play

in assisting individual farmers in its correct application.

157. In the prevailing circumstances some compromise must be reachedbetween the need for numbers of extension officers and maintaining scientificstandards. 11ithin reason it looks as though the former consideration mustdominate. At this stage of development - subject to the overriding qualifica-tion of minimum training and sound farming sense if not experience - person-ality and ability to do a job are probably more important than a highstandard of scientific training for the general run of extension workers. Ifthis view is accepted then the agricultural education system and syllabusshould be adjusted to meet this end. Any such adjustments must make some

provision to enable those receiving relatively scant technical training(say two years) designed to fit them for the lower levels of extension work

adding to this later if they show the required promise in the field.

158. The need for effective extension is obvious and pressing. As soon

as the pattern can be seen following the setting up of the agriculturaldevelopment corporations and the allocation of responsibility is clearer, avery serious attempt should be made to revitalize and in some areas re-equip

the extension service. This reorganization should provide the opportunityand incentive to individual officers to exercise initiative (vith reasonablesafeguards) and must aim to develop some sense of service loyalty and aclose relationship with the farming community. If the service can be per-sonalized and vitalized and equipped in such a way that it has a reasonable

chance of doing its job, money and effort invested in extension as a strongfeature of the development program will be well repaid. In. allocating re-sources within this group, in spite of the urgent need for the products of

research in so many spheres, the present situation and need appears to tip

the balance of advantage in favor of extension and give this service the

edge in priority where the two come into competition.

- 45.-

D. Animal Husbandry

159. This is an important, and one of the neglected branches of agricul-ture, which calls for attention in organization as well as in application.Cattle play a vital role in Pakistants overall activity. They provide nearlyall the traction power in the fields, much of the motive power on the roadsand are expected to meet the needs of a rapidly increasing population for milk,

butter and ghee. Unfortunately, they also provide a considerable proportion

of the domestic fuel in the form of dung which should be returned to the land.

In addition, end products, meat, and a significant export income from hides,

bonemeal, hoof and horn, etc. In spite of their importance, little attentionhas been paid to the broader aspects of animal husbandry policy. Control

and prevention of disease has been the main preoccupation and virtually no

attention has been paid to animal nutrition, improved management and

planned breeding.

160. The most reccent statistics available are set out below. Theseare old and -orobably not very accurate but will serve to give an impression.

(in 'OOo)

C&>tt2e East Pakistan West Pakistan T.tal

Adult, male 5,787 4,039 9,826Adult, femrale 5,425 3,024 8,449Young stock 3,527 2,494 6,021

Total 14,739 9,557 24,296

Buffalo 577 5 ,023 5,600

Cattle & buf.alo 15,316 14,580 29,896

Cultivated acres per head 1.45 2.70 2.06

161. In spite of the very small size of holdings each farmer tends to

keep at least one pair of worki.ng bullocks, The loss of a bullock is a major

disaster and its replacement involves inccixring debt which wlll take many

years to repay. Inadequately fed and managed as they are, simply to keep

this high livestock population alive must make a considerable demand on the

resources of the holding. It is true that much of their support is derived

from straw and browsing around the field boundaries, etc., which could not

be utilized in any other way, but this defence of the position can be mis-

leading. The cattle have a given workload to perform at a particular timeand to the extent they are undernourished and inefficient the defect has tc

be made up by increased numbers or is reflected in lower crop yields due to

inadequate or untimely cultivation. In many cases, particularly in East

Pakistan, fewer and more capable animals would be a better proposition.

- 46 -

162. The responsibility for animal husbandry work rests w?ith theAnimal Husbandry Department which is quite separate from the Departmentof Agriculture. It is staffed by veterinarians and would be more aptlydescribed as a Veterinary or Animal Health Service. During its period ofresponsibility the Animal Husbandry Department has bred and distributedconsiderable numbers of bulls to the villages but understandably its mainpreoccupation has been with combating the many contagious and parasiticdiseases which cause high mortality throughout the country. In additionto the high death rate, great annual losses occur through chronic forms ofdisease resulting in inefficiency and loss of work. During the First Plan26 new veterinary hospitals and dispensaries were opened and 16 mobileunits provided. The Second Plan aims at the establishment of 100 new hos-pitals and dispensaries and the modernization of 250 existing dispensaries,in addition to the provision of 60 new mobile dispensaries. It is alsoproposed to intensify the supervision and treatment arrangement on therecognized routes used by the migratory stock.

163. It is no reflection on the veterinarians tackling these problemsto point out that a great deal in the matter of disease control still re-mains to be done. Animal health alone is more than an adequate assignmentfor the veterinary profession. In these circumstances the Mission agreeswith those that suggest that all other aspects of animal husbandry shouldbe transferred to the Department of Agriculture (or the AgriculturalDevelopment Corporation, where appropriate) and a sound animal husbandrypolicy developed and applied through the general extension service. Thiswould take time to develop but nothing would be lost by the change. Itvcould hold out the prospect of some immediate gain as a result of theveterinary concentration on disease control and some effective animal hus-bandry work could build up gradually.

164. In the Mission's view on taking over the responsibility for animalhusbandry,the Department of Agriculture should give first priority to betterfeeding and better general management, followed by encouragement of betterbreeding, incorporating the more widespread use of artificial inseminationwherever possible. Maybe some ruthless form of bull licensing, for a fewyears at least, to remove the worst elements of degenerate breeding shouldbe considered.

165. The intense population pressure on land reacts strongly againstthe animal industry. Humans and animals are constantly in competition forfood and there can be no real solution until productivity as a whole israised (or is supplemented by imports) and the supply is better adjustedto need. Progress in animal husbandry is very dependent on the successfulapplication of the principles dealt with earlier.

166. Whilst only cattle have been mentioned, the Mission does not over-look the considerable scope for work and development on sheep, goats andpoultry, as well as the donkey, mule and horse.

- 47 -

E. Forestry

167. There is a pressing need for more timber for industrial and manu-facturing purposes as well as for firewood. Timber imports in 1958amounted to Rs. 20 million, The lack of firewood promotes the widespreadburning of dung cakes which robs the soil of manure and no doubt has con-tributed to the prevailing low fertility and low yields.

168. In Wlest Pakistan, the main natural forests lie in the mountainousregions in the northern areas. Plantation forests are located largely inthe former Punjab and are now being extended into the former province ofSind. In East Pakistan, the main forests are in the Chittagong Hill tractsand the tidal areas of the Sanderbands. The possibilities of increasingextraction and the prospect of natural regeneration are much more favorablein East than in West Pakistan.

169. The First Plan provided for an increase in timber production ofabout 26 per cent but only 13 per cent was achieved. Failure was duelargely to slow progress in the major timber extraction schemes in theChittagong Hill tracts (target 40,000 tons; performance 10,000 tons). Inthe Second Plan the annual target of timber extraction from the ChittagongHill tracts will be increased to 45,Coo tons by 1965 and from the Sander-bands it is proposed to extract about 55,000 tons.

170. The efficient use of forest resources requires that extractedtimber should be seasoned and non-durable timber treated with preserva-tives. The provision of this treatment is rightly being given high priority.

171. The situation in Wlest Pakistan call-s for an active policy of re-effore-station and natural regeneration. It will also be necessary to estab-lish areas of irrigated forests in the new irrigation areas, particularlyfor firewood production. In addition, there is considerable scope forincreasing forest resources by planting trees along roads, canals, riversand other wasteland.

F. Fisheries

172. Pakistan has substantial possibilities for development of fish-eries resources and the Plan aims at increasing fish production by 24 percent. Planned expenditures of Rs. 50 million cover initiation of a marinefish survey; assistance to the industry in improving craft and equipment;facilities for marketing and processing; development and conservation of fishin inland waters; improvement of facilities for training, research and col-lection of statistics, and encouragement of fisheries cooperative societies.

173. During the First Plan some progress was made in West Pakistan indeveloping marine fisheries based on preliminary surveys along the MekranCoast. The completion of Karachi Fish Harbor and its related facilities hasstimulated private investment in the West Pakistan fisheries industry inmechanized boats and improved gear as well as processing facilities. As aresult a small export trade in frozen shrimp has been developed. TheSecond Plan provides for continued assistance for fleet modernization, con-struction of new fish landing facilities at Gwadur, and more detailed studiesof marine resources.

- 48 -

174. In East Pakistan, plans for explorations of marine fisheries weredelayed but will be initiated in the Second Plan period. A brief studymade by a Japanese survey boat indicated good possibilities in the Bay ofBengal but the native craft now being used cannot operate during the monsoonseason. Plans for fleet and gear improvement are included in the SecondPlan.

175. The program for development of inland fisheries aims at improvingthe quality of fish in East Pakistan and extending the areas devoted to fishfarming in West Pakistan. The program provides for establishment of modernfish hatcheries, collection of fish fry, and widespread distribution at asubsidized price. It also provides for rehabilitation of derelict fisher-ies, improved marketing facilities, training and education and expandedresearch.

G. Land Reforms

176. This embraces all measures aimed at eliminating the undesirablefeatures of land tenure and in particular, eliminating large concentrationsof land oirnership, consolidation of fragmented holdings and regulatinglandlord-tenant relations. It is a difficult problem 'which has been attract-ing a good deal of attention. It seemed to the Mission that some of thegrosser inequalities have been removed but the hard core of the problemstill remains. In the case of amalgamation of holdings and consolidationof fragmented holdings it is doubtful vahether a solution is in sight. Theinterests of production, custom and social justice are frequently in con-flict and which should predominate is a political rather than a technicaldecision.

177. The average size of holding (about 3 acres) is very much below theeconomic optimum but whilst labor is plentiful and relatively cheap, this initself need not prevent a high level of output. Unfortunately, within thispattern of very small farms there is a serious problem of fragmentation. Aholding of two acres may be made up of four to eight plots a considerabledistance apart. The combination of very small holdings and a high degree offragmentation is a real obstacle to progress. It precludes effective irri-gation, even partial mechanization, economical working and any crop isolation.It rules out block working and treatment, leadz to excessive maintenance,loss of land to boundary dikes, difficult access and innumerable disputes.

Land Reforms in West Pakistan

178. Though the First Plan made important proposals, no significantaction was taken until October 1958 'when the Government set up the LandReforms Commission. On the basis of the Commission's report, the Governmentannounced its land reforms policy in January 1959 and soon after set up aLand Commission to ensure speedy implementation. The main features include:

- 49 -

a) Ceilings on ownership which - with many exemptions andqualifications - linit individual oiwnership to 5co acresof irrigated or 1,OC0 acres of non-irrigated land. Aland utilization ordinance also provides that where landremains uncultiva',;ed for a period of tA7o years or more,it may be requisitioned by the Government if, followingnotice, it is not brought into proper cultivation;

b) Abolition of Jagirs (privileged grants of land or revenuefrom land) which were transferred to the Government withoutcompensation;

c) Tenancy legislation and security of tenure - the land Com-mission is formulating uniform regulations to provideadequate security for tenants to induce them to investthe necessary capital and effort in the land, They willalso lay down clearly the rights and responsibilities oftenants and landlords. In the meantime, tenants have beengiven interim protection against arbitrary eviction;

d) Consolidation of holdings. - There is great need for theconsolidation of small fragmented holdings and progressso far has been slow. Consideration is being given tothe enforcement of compulsory consolidation but theMission is not aware of the progress or any decisionsreached; and

e) Sub-division of holdings. - Under the Niuslim law of inherit-ance the heirs are entitled to receive a fixed share of theestate, regardless of its size and value. In order tolimit the most harmful effects of fragmentation, the FirstPlan advocated the public acquisition of uneconomic in-terested shares of an estate to be added to the holdingsof other owners so as to attain at least the minimum economicunit. The Land Reform Corrmission has since defined a sub-sistence holding as 12-1/2 to 16 acres and an economic hold-ing as 50-64 acres, depending upon location. In practicethis limitation to the alienation of land has been foundtoo drastic and modifications have been made but so far ascan be judged no real solution to the problem has yet beenfound.

Land Reforms in East Pakistan

179. The East Bengal Estate Acquisition and Tenancy Act, 1950 providedfor the acquisition of all rent receiving interests between the actual culti-vator and the State, For "Khas" possessions of land (owner-cultivated) theAct fixed a ceiling on owinership at about 33 acres (subject to certain exemp-tions and variations). The Act also provided for the acquisition of all non-retainable classes of "Khas" lands, such as "hats" (local markets), bazars,forests, ferries and fisheries, belonging to rent receivers as well as non-rent receivers. The Act further gave the tenants full occupancy rights withthe right of transfer to bonafide cultivators and forbade sub-letting.

- 5o -

180. Althnough implementation of the Act started in 1951, progress wasextremely slow. Little happened until 1956 when the East Pakistan Govern-ment acquired all intermediary rights and also acquired excess "fXhas" landswithin the retainable classes in one or two districts.

181, In December 1958, the East Pakistan Government appointed a LandRevenue Commission to examine the main aspects of the many problems arisingout of implementation of the scheme0 The Corrmmission recommended the ceilinglimit for "Khas" land be raised to about 100 acres per family and the impart-ibility of ownership units below three acres to prevent fragnentation.

182. In the Second Plan it is suggested that to improve the presentposition of -the cultivators--who have been granted permanent transferableand alienable tenancy rights of nationalized land--should be endowed withfull rights of ownership. Also, that sharecroppers (Bargadars) who are notrecognized as tenants and so not afforded any protection by the existinglawng should be afforded appropriate protection.

183. In both provinces, land reform is a difficult subJect. The IIissiondid not study the measures being applied in any detail but encountered widelydivergent views. The impression was gained that only limited progress hadbeen made and that in the difficult spheres of amalgamation and consolidationof hcldings no very firm policy had yet been formulated0

H. Rural Credit and Co-operative _IMarketing

184. Easily available credit is a vital consideration for developmentand past experience with the commercial banks and soecialized credit institu-tions, such as the Agricultural Development Finance Corporation and the Agri-cultural Bank and Co-operatives has not been very encouraging.. The two banl-sreferred to above have now been amalgamated and provision is made in the P]anfor the rate of lending by co-operatives to be e>panded by at least Rs. 200million per year. The problem of immediate provision of short-term and creditin kind has been referred to on page 35. The present recognized sources ofcredit are:

185. Taccavi loans by the Government - These are repayable over varyingperiods and at varying rates of interest and both loan and interest may bewritten off in certain circlumstances. The loans made and recoveries during1955 to 1958 were Rs. 89 million and Rs. 33 million respectively. In spiteof many unsatisfactory features, Taccavi loans will have to continue to meetmuch of the immediate need for agricultural credit, but it is hoped that thiswill be on a declining scale as the function is taken over by co-operatives.

- 51 -

186. Co-operative Societies - These were started in 1504. The frame-wTork consists of provincial banks at the apex level, central banks at thedistrict or sub-division level and co-operative societies affiliated tothe central banks at the primary level. It is intended that the primarysocieties should grarit loans in kind and should take steps to ensure theyare used effectively.

187. The First Plan attached high priority to the development of the co-operative movement but very little progress was made. The Second Plan stillregards the setting up of co-or-eratives as the best prospects for solvingthe credit problem. In West Pakistan it is proposed to establish 500 newlarge primary societies which, in addition to providing credit, will under-take the marketing of produce and the supply of requisites to their mnembers.In addition, at least 10,000 newi! small societies are planned and 1250 exist-ing small co-operatives are to be reorganized. In East Pakistan, 500 ofthe existing 3,500 union multipurpose societies are to be reorganized.

1880 The view is taken in the Plan that failure to provide co-operativemarketing facilities has been one of the main reasons for the slow progressso far and the Second Plan provides for the setting up of 100 marketingsocieties in the larger market towns in West Pakistan (each to serve 20-30member primary societies) and for the reorganization of 30 central multi-purpose societies in East Pakistan.

189. Agricultural Development Finance Corp, and the Agricultural Bank -These Twere started up in 1952 and 1957 respectively and were intended to dovery much the same job - provision of short and medium-term loans againstsecurity - in different geographical areas. Their success was rather limitedand in accordance with the recommendation of the Credit Enquiry Coimniss-onthey have very recently been merged to form the Agricultural Bank.

190. It is intended that the Agricultural Bank should open up branchesin both Provinces where co-operatives do not operate and that in general itshould supplement the co-operatives; the latter concentrating on short andmedium-term loans (frequently given in kind) and the bank on longer-termfinancing.

191. Won-institutional Sources - These include relatives, landlords,commission agents and private moneylenders. In the absence of informationit is assumed that they provide most of the rural credit employed. Theterms no doubt vary in accordance w7ith the circumstances in wThich the loansare made, but in general the Mission encountered much more fear and resent-ment than appreciation of this type of borrowing. There can be no doubtthat the Pakistan farmer with his compelling needs and small reserves ismost vulnerable and an easy victim to usury.

I - Co-operative Farms ard and Management

192. There are some examples of successful co-operative farming inPakistan and many areas where the system would appear to offer consider-able promise, The application of co-operative principles warrants verycareful study and in particular, ways of obtaininlg the benefits it has tooffer without the loss of individual initiative, To the extent that co-operation can be organized and overcome the limitation of smiall andscattered holdings and facilitate better farming, better marketing andbetter credit services, it should be encouraged. There are areas wheresome form of co-operative effort may be the only acceptable way in whichthe present conditions can be reconciled with the needs of the future.

J. Marketing and Economic Incentives

193e The small scale, illiterate and impoverished farmer is vulnerableto market nanipulation and misrepresentation by merchants and commissionagents. The provision of market information, regulated markets and welladjusted systems of price support (as at present for wheat and rice) are

likely to prove strong incentives., The recent relaxation of control and

abandonment of compulsory procurement of grain are also encouraging.Though only a small portion of what is produced enters the monetized marketthere is a good deal of indication, that farmers are quickly responsive toprice incentive. In the interest of market stability it is essential to

establish substantial reserve stocks to even out fluctuations in supply and

demand and reduce specu'ation and hoarding.

K. Mechanization

194. W4hilst labor is plentiful and in many respects conditions do notfavor rapid development of niechanization within the present pattern, thematter still merits consideration. Projects most worthy of considerationappear to be: power equipment for tl2e rapid development of areas opened upby irrigation and for land reclamation and for anti-erosion control pur-poses; tractors and purmps for land reclamation and pump irrigation in EastuPakistan; possibly the use of small tractors as a substitute for bullockpowTer in the more intensively populated areas.

Lo Saturation Prograims

195. This implies a careful choice of project and then concentratingthe application of the key factors in production, such as extension, supply,plant protection, etc. This high impact techniqupe has great appeal in cir--cumstances where the total demand for action is so much in excess of theavailable resources. It has merit when applied to projects of particularpromise but should not be overdone. Seven "model areas" on these lineshave been established in West Pakistan ard five in East Pakistan, In these

areas administrative responsibility has been streamlined in addition to theconcentration of supplies and other services. The direct channels of depart-rental communications merge at the point of the Deputy District Commiissioner

who assunies fu11 responsibility for the execution of the program wit3lin hisosrritory0 These s-hclnes starteda late in 1960 and so it is too earl.y et tG

nudge resul'ts rut progress appears to be enzourag-rg,

M. Basic Democracies and Village AID

196. Unfortunately at the operating level there appeared to be poorcooperation between these agencies and the Agriculture Depart,nent. Whilstthe extension service must have its own motivating forces within the strictlytechnical sphere it is important that in the broader field of motivation itshould take full advantage of, as well as make its contribution to, the im-portant work of Basic Democracies, The Mission understands that VillageAID as a separate organization is being discontinued. It is not clear yetwhat the link will be between the local coimqunity and the official agencies.Presumably it will be through the Basic Democracies and a better under-stancing and demarkation of responsibilities should be established.

APPENDIX A

WATER DEVELOPEIET PROJECTS IN IJEST PAKISTAN

Ghulam Miuhamrad Barrage (Kotri Barrage)

Started in 1946, the barrage and left bank canals were completedin 1955, and the right bank main canal in 1958. The project commands a cul-tivatable area of 2,806,799 acres, of which 1,653,277 acres were Govern-ment owned. Based on a cropping intensity of 72%, a total of about 2 mil-lion acres were to be ultimately cropped as compared to about 620,0co acresunder cultivation before the project was started. As a result of delaysin deciding on colonization policy and weaknesses in the administrativestructure, as well as serious problems of waterlogging and salinity, onlyabout 2CO,OCO acres of additional land had been put into cultLvation by theend of the First Plan period. Total expenditures through 1959/60 for irri-gation amounted to about Rs. 268.5 million.

To expedite development a IMaster Plan wias prepared for the GhulamMihammad Barrage which sets up a new administrative structure and sets fortha detailed schedule for development. According to the iMaster Plan irriga-tion works will be completed by the end of 1963 and all land will be re-leased for irrigation by the end of 1963/6X. It is estimated that out ofthe total cultivable area of 2.8 million acres, 1.68 million acres will beunder cultivation in 1965, an increase of 867,030 acres, To take care ofvaterlogging and salinity problems, extensive c.-ainage works have beenadded to the original plan but with the neT, a.proach under the Yaster Planwork is expected to proceed on szhedule, Costs according to t;he MasterPlan Twjill go up considerably, ao,uniting to an additional Rs. 132.5 million.for irrigation, Rs. 150 ruilion for drainage anid Rs. 178 million for roads,buildings, village fd1iJtiJos, eLc0 The Second Plan provisions appear tobe Rs. 73 million for ir.g tŽn and only Rs, 20 rillion for drainage plusunspecified arc-unts for roodS buil-dings, etc, Although scime internalshifts may have been, ?de to pi'o-,-d'ie fo. scro of the larger expendituresrequired, it vould a:.pear That fuither pro½rJ_ic*s nsay be required.

The Second Plan which was prepared prior to completion of the newYaster Plan estimated sulstanrtially lcwer benefits from the project basedon a lower level of expenditures.

Acreage Increase ProductionSecond Plan laster Plan Second Plan Yaster Plan

('000 acres) 00tons)

Rice 290 536 107 197Wheat 34 73 9 19Grain 56 - 10Oil seeds 11 41) 2 7Sugar cane 17 33 200 388Cotton 34 73 15 i/ 32 1/Vegetables 6 17 22 65Others 56 94_ - _

504 867

1/ In '000 bales.

APPEIDIX APage 2

The Mission is of the opinion that of the ongoing projects toppriority should be given to completion of the Ghulam Muhammad Barrageprovided problems of waterlogging and salinity can be overcome. The largeamounts already expended, the preparatory steps already completed and thescope for increased production, give the incremental expenditures for com-pletion a reasonably favorable capital output ratio. The additional in-vestment of Rs. 460 million can bring in 867,000 acres of additional landvithin the Plan period, plus an additional 354h,OCO acres at a later stage.The estimated increase in rice production alone during the Plan per-odvould amount to roughly 200,000 tons, which at prevailing world priceswould be valued at about Rs. 95 million. Total value of increased produc-tion wrould probably amount to about Rs. 150 million in 1965 and abolutdouble that by 1970. The total cost of the project is estimated at Rs. 725million, giving a capital output ratio of about 2 to 1.

Gudu Barrage

Started in 1953 with a target date for completion of irrigationvorks in 1958, completion is now scheduled for 1962. The purpose is toDrovide weir controlled irrigation for 2.5 million acres. During the Plan-eriod it is estimated by West Pakistan WAPDA that 150,000 acres of new-and will come under irrigation and 945,000 acres shall be supplied withimproved water. Total cost of the project is estimated at Rs. 374 millionof which Rs. 130 million had been spent through 1959/60. Expenditures ofRs. 185 million are scheduled during the Second Plan period. Costs ofcolonization and development have not been worked out in detail but couldamount to an additional Rs. 350 million based on the experience of theGhulam Yuhamrad Barrage project.

Despite the importance of Gudu in the program for fuller utiliza-tion of 7w7ater in the Indus Basin, the Mission feels that the project shouldbe re-appraised with a view toward deferring some of the expendituresassociated i.ith development of new land. The Mission is of the opinionthat more rapid progress can be made in the colonization program if effortsare concentrated on one or two projects rather than being dispersed overthe Thal, Taunsa, Gudu and Ghulam Muhammad projects. The Mission is wellaware of the possibility that closer appraisal might give Gudu a higherpriority. However, since the Ghulam Muhammad Barrage and the Taunsa Barrageprojects are further along it would seem proper to give these projectspriority over Gudu.

Taunsa Barrage

Started in 1952, originally scheduled for completion in 1958, nowexpected to be completed in 1962, the Taunsa project will provide improvedwater supply for 1.4 million acres and bring under irrigation 180,000 acresof new land. The barrage and one of the feeder canals is already complete.Total expenditures through 1959/60 amounted to Rs. 160 million. The SecondPlan provides for Rs. 14.4 million for completion of the irrigation works.The costs of colonization and development are not available but since mostof the benefits will come from existing acreage thEse should not be excessive.

The Mission attaches high priority to completion of this projectand rapid colonization and development of the new land involved.

APPENDIX APage 3

Thal Development Project

Started in 19!49 and scheduled. for completion in 1955, the presenttarget for completion is 1964. The plan provided for weir controlled irri-gation of a little less than 2 million acies, but present estimates are thatabout 1.1 million acres will be irrigated upon completion. Out of thisroughly 660,000 acres of cultivable land was to be allotted to settlers whowere to be provided with hiousing, roads, schools, hospitals, credit andagricultural advisory services. As of June 1960, atotal area of 64o,000acres had been colonized. Total cultivated irrigated acreage was estimatedat about 650,000 acres, although there is very little data ind-icating theextent of development on private lands in the coninanded area. Prior to com-pletion of the project, only 12,600 acres were under cultivation. There areconflicting reports on the expenditures incurred to date and it is not clearhow much more will be required. Part of the difficulty results from ex-pendit-res outside of the original scop.e of the project, which has beensuibsequently recovered through sales to private interests, such as variousindustrial plants which had been built by the authority. A further coin-plicating factor has been the auction sale of some land. However, the mostrecent report indicates net expenditure in the order of Ps. 140 millionthrough June 1960.

The report of the Thal Revision Cormittee recommended that anadditional area of about 250,000 acres should be levelled, but Drogress hasbeen delayed because of difficulties in obtaining foreign exchange forimport of machinery and spare parts. Arrangements have now been made forthese imports. Serious problems of waterlogging and salinity were alsoencolntered and are to be met through provision of drainage facilities.

The Second Plan provides Rs. 6 million for additional irrigationfacilities and Rs. 33 million for colonization, consisting largely of landlevelling activities. The Alission believes that further development ofmarginal lands in the pro4ect area should be discontinued so as to freepersonnel for other urgent colonization workc.

Salinity and wiaterlogging _Drainage, Reclamation, Tubewells)

Prior to the construction of the extensive irrigation system inthe Indus basin, the ground water level was at a substantial depth below thesurface. However, as water was brought onto the land through irrigation theunderground flow of water out to the sea alas not sufficient to drain theexcess water and a gradual rise in the water table was started. As early asthe late 1930's the water table had risen to within 10 to 15 feet of theground surface over much of the irrigated area. As the table rose, not onlywas drainage canacity reduced but also the upward movement due to evapora-tion of water from the water table led to a steadily increasing accumulationof salts in the root zones. The pattern of irrigation practices based onminimum water requirements left very little surplus water to leach out theseaccumulated salts. In many areas waterlogging developed and even the oc-casional monsoon rains could no longer be drained away. By 1960 it wasestimated that in the former Punjab a'one 5 million acres olut of 15 million

APPENDIX APage 4

acres under irrigation were affected by salinity. Out of this about 3.5million acres were affected sufficiently to reduce crop yields and 1.5million acres had gone out of production. An estimated 70,000 - 100,000acres are reported to be going out of production anrnually.

To meet this problerm, a program for drainage improvement has beencarried out during the past twenty years. A major reclamation project in-volving construction of 1,600 tubewells was also carried out in the 1940's,but with partition and diversion of the power source to India, the tubewellsnever became fully onerative. In 195' a major ground water survey wasstarted with U.S. assistance which provided the basis for the iechna Doabreclamation and salinity control project (Salinity Control and ReclamrationProject Number One). This project was started in 1959 and is scheduled forcompletion in 1962. Feasibility studies have been completed for a secondproject, the Chaj Doab Salinity Control and Reclamation Project Number Two.Comprehensive ground water studies are continuing and a number of similarprojects are under various stages of planning and investigation. Governmenthas just called for preparation of a Master Plan embodying all aspects ofthe problermi of salinity and waterlogging to be prepared by Nvlay 15, 1961.WAPDA's oreliminary esti.mates indicated that Rs. 4,500 million would beneeded over a period of 15 years to take care of an estimated 18 to 20 mil-lion acres of land affected by waterlogging and salinity.

Some of the main features of the prospective Master Plan asreported by the press are:

(a) An overall appraisal of the problem of salinity and waterlogging and anassessment of the results of the projects which are now in the course ofimplementation.

(b) Investigations and surveys for drawing up programs for sinking of tube-wells, construction of drains and water storages and revamping ofcanals in areas hitherto neglected.

(c) 1TJorking out details of the construction program for -works to cover theentire affected area within 10 years.

(d) Proposing an organization for the maintenance of tubewells, drains, etc.and service to educate the farmers in the techmiques of land and wateruse.

(e) Carrying out basic research in hydrology.

The Mission is convinced that waterlogging and salinity problemsdeserve a very high priority, both from the standpoint of protecting thelivelihood of the millions of farmars affected, but also from the stand-point of increasing national output. The estimated costs of is. 150 peracre for reclamation through drainage and tubewell irrigation are substan-tially lower than the costs of new -rri gation projects such as the GhulamNuhamnmad barrage, which ultimately wiill cost aboutt RS. 500 per acre includingcolonization, land developrrient and drainage costs. Benefits appear to be

APPENDIX APage 5

relatively high since much of the land is now producing no crop or very lowyields and a large part of the remainder would be going out of productionin the absence of an adequate program. For example, for the Chaj DoabSalinity Control and Reclamation Project Number Two, it has been estimatedthat; total value of production would increase from Rs. 274 million toRs. 557 million. This project covers roughly 2 million acres and the totalcost is estimated at Rs. 292 million. Considering that production would godownl in the absence of the project, the annual benefits are probably roughlyequivalent to the initial capital cost. In addition serious social and.economic costs involved in finding alternative employment for farmers in thearea can be avoided.

However, since the first major nrojcct of th-s nature has yet to becompleted, the Mission reserves judgment as to the speed wJith wThich suchprojects can be carried and benefits realized. Certainly in view of theseriousness of the problem and tile hea-vy costs which can reslult from f'ailureto meet the problem, every efi'ort shiould 'e given to acceleraLte actionagainst waterlogging and salinity. In this connect-.on, the M.lission supportsthe government decision to prepare a Master Plan and tackle the problem ina comnprehensive manner.

APPENDIX B

WATER DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS IN EAST PAKISTAN

Ganges Kobadak Project

Based on recommendations of FAO, the Ganges Kobadak Project wasstarted in 1954 and was to be the first irrigation project in East Pakistan.The project has gone through a number of changes in scheduling, cost estimates,design and area benefited. A number of serious mistakes were made in theproject and the completion dates for the Kushtia Unit, the first phase of theproject, is now estimated to be 1963 as compared to earlier estimates of 1956and 1960. The first irrigation water was scheduled to be delivered during thecurrent year and it was hoped that about o0,COO acres might be placed underirrigation. Compared to the original estimates of roughly two years for com-pletion, the project is now expected to be completed in nine years. Costs havegone up considerably from the original estimates and may go up further as aresult of recent changes in design and problems in connection with the intake.On the benefit side, recent estimates indicate that area benefited will prob-ably be substantially less than originally anticipated, due to inadequate esti-mates of seepage losses and irrigation requirements. In addition, the experi-ence on two pilot irrigation areas indicates that farmers have been relativelyslow in learning how to use irrigation water effectively.

The project as originally conceived was divided into three units, theKushtia Unit, the Jessore Unit and the Khulna Unit. Water from the Ganges wasto be pumped and diverted into a series of existing river channels.

The Kushtia Unit which was started in 1954 was to irrigate 420,000acres at a cost of Rs 50 million or Rs 119 per acre. The East Pakistan WAPDA?spresent estimate is that 350,000 acres will be irrigated at a cost of Rs 198million or Rs 570 per acre. The Planning Commission estimates that only100,000 acr"s will receive improved water supply by 1965. East Pakistan WAPDAestimates substantially higher benefits than the Planning Commission, makingit difficult to arrive at a realistic estimate ef cost benefits. The Missionhas, however, concluded that in view of the commitments involved, the advancedstage of the project, and the scope for other projects of this nature, theKushtia Unit should be completed if remaining uncertainties can be rosolved.Every effort should be made to bring about rapid and efficient use of the wzaterwhen it becomes available.

The Jessore Unit or Phase II is still in its preliminary planningstage. Additional water required for this phase, as well as the irrigationaspects of Phase III, will require assurances from India that sufficient waterwill continue to be available in the Ganges. Present estimates place costs atRs 490 million, of wJhich Rs 120 million have been allocated for the plan period.In line with the general principle of giving priority to quickly maturingprojects and to permit more adequate preparation, the Mission recommends thatthis project be deferred until such time that Indian agreement can be obtainedand when proper evaluation of the technical and economic results of the KushtiaUnit can be made.

APPENDIX BPage'

The Khulna Unit or Phase III, now called the KhuLna MiultipurposeProject, covering 650,000 acres, has been studied by two consulting groupswho have come up with conflicting recommendations. One of the consultantsestimates total cost at Rs 395 million, of which Rs 161 million are scheduledduring the Second Plan period. The earlier study by the other consultantestimated total cost at Rs 874 million, of which Rs 105 million was for em-poldering and drainage. The two estimates differed in terms of the number o2polders required, the method of obtaining irrigation water and the extent towhich major rivers would be closed off. The Missiori believes that furtherstudies should be undertaken before a decision can be taken on the irrigationaspects in view of the conflicting opinions encountered. The poldering anddrainage aspects, however, do not differ essentially from works proposed underthe Coastal Enbankments Project as lonLg as large po]ders involving closures ofmajor rivers are avoided. Pilot operations of this type involving constructAioiof tidal embankments, sluice gates and drains have already been constructed inthe area and proved to yield large benefits. The Hission feels, therefore,that the poldering and drainage aspects should be given priority but that theirrigation aspects be deferred.

Coastal Erftankments

At an estimated cost of Rs 262 million, the project provides 2orprotecting 1.6 million acres of land from salt water inuldation. Most of thic

land had been developed b-y large landlcrds who had gradually built up anid ra ltained an extensive system of tidal embaOnkments. After Partition, most ofthese lcL,ri--ds left Pakistan ard the embank1nents have not been iisai.xtaimned,causing heavy losses from salt water iui%,dation and abandcmnent of large arean.In addition, the grachial reduction of sweet water flow from the Ganges hasin'reascd the range of salt water penetration and brought salinity problEmsinto new areas previously wiaff,ctnjd, Investigations have shown that cropyields in these saline areas can be increased by 10 tD 15 mounds of paddy peracre valupd at Rs 120.180 on the basis of world nmarket prices. Costs of pro-tecting such land are estimated at about Rs 160 per acre. Heince, a major partof the cost could be recovered ir. the first year after completion. Sinee the

proizct is divi6dd into a large nmmber of small in,divitlual units, benefitswolld xecrue as each unit is completed.

The basic conditions are very similar to the Irrawaddy delta in Buarmawhere a similar progr.am has been carried out diuring the past four years. Theactual cost benefit ratios were fouid to be more or less in line with thoseproj ectad in this proje ct, The program required fairly simple engit;eering,largwscalJe mobilizatioin of labor for necessary earthworks, and some earth-moVing equipment -to hnndlue some of the larger embankments. The prograiru inBurma was complicated by the ne&d for colonization in many areas which had bcenabarh-onTBd. In Pakistan, the coastal areas are heavily populated and there wi'lbe no need for any extensive colrinization.

Thp Nissioni- believes that the Coastal Eibarnlament Project should begiven the highest priority in view of the favorable cost benefit ratio and thescope for quick develoyrient.

APPENDIX BPage 3

Flood Regulabion and Drainage

The Second Plan points out that during three successive years,1954-1956 a total of 8.3 million acres were damaged by floods in EastPakistan, resulting in a crop loss of 1,7 million tons valued at Rs. 468million.

The U.N. Study of Water and Power Development in East Pakistanin 1956/57 concluded that most of the usual methods of flood control onalluvial rivers could not be carried out in East Pakistan since the uppercatchments of the major rivers were outside of Pakistan and suitable sitesfor downs-tream detention reservoirs were not available. The report wenton to point out the complexities of flood diversion, protective embank-ments, channel improvement and drainage works, but recomnended immediatestudies to develop projects of this type as the only available way toreduce extensive flood damage. The report also pointed out possibilitiesof carrying out flood control schemes of local influence.

Subsequently, a comprehensive study of the hydrology, topographyand water use potential for East Pakistan has been initiated and is nowscheduled for completion in 1964. A number of relatively small projectscf local influence have been prepared and are under execution.

Experience with flood embankments comnbined with channel anddrainage improvement has varied. 14here the rise in flood levels result-ing from the embank1nenMs has not had serious effects on unprotected areas,the benefits have been substantial. WIhere costly bank protection or river'raining works have not been required embankmnents have been relativelycheap, have prevented flood losses and had an immediate effect on produc-tion. In East Pakistan relatively little flood embankment work has beencarried out and there appears to be substantial scope for projects of thistype. The Second Plan provides Rs. 145 million for projects of this type.

The Mission feels that these projects should be given priorityand that every effort be made to develop additional projects as rapidly asniecessary studies are completed.

Small Pump Irrigation

Under the program of the Department of Agriculture the number ofsmall pumps in use has increased from 40 in 1955/56 to 1,167 in 1959/60and the area irrigated has increased from 2,658 acres to 47,5h9 acres. TheDepartment has provided operators and maintenance at a subsidized ratecharging Rs. 27 per acre irrigated. During the Second Plan period the num-ber of pumps used will be ircreased by 600 each year. However, the Depart-ment plans to sell pumps to cultivators at a subsidized price, continuingto operate about 1,500 pumps. The rates charged for departmental pumpsare to be gradually raised from the present subsidized rate of Rs. 27 peracre to Rs. 41 per acre, which is expected to cover all costs.

APPENDDI BPage 4

The program of the Department of Agriculture at present seems tosuffer from several weaknesses, some of which are being overcome: (1) theorganization and facilities for maintenance and repairs are not adequateto service the large numbers of pumps which will be added during the SecondPlan period; (2) the present system of prcviding one operator and anassistant for each pump makes operating costs too high; (3) possibilitiesshould be explored for utilizTdlg motors for cther uses such as operationof threshers, winnowers, hullers, etc. during periods when pumps are notbeing used.

The Department has plans for expanding workshop facilities andtwo of the pLmp manulfa2ttaxers are also plan-.-in to prov5.da ser-vicing faci-lities. Plans have also been made to conce it.te a numier cf pumps in eacharea to facilitate maintenance, as well as i.>ra fning of farx.mers to operatetheir own pumps,

In Ept-e of these shortcoir-ings, thoere is no questioii that theprograr has been sticcessful. The l:.ssion fee.,.L that the exper:ience gainedsh0uld nake it possible to accelerate the program over the levels now pro-posed. The establishment of the ne,- Agricultural Developm Corporationshould facJlitate improvement and expansion of maintenance and repairfacilities, A pilot farmer training program has been in operation forover a year at the Village AiD Training Academy at Comill.a. There are sub-stantial unexploited surface supplies of water available through the dryseason which could greatly increase the area of drys eason cropping.,

In additicn to the Department of Agriculture, East Pakistan1JAFDA has two programs for small pumps in connection with tubewell develop-ments in the northwestern section and lowlift pumping from surface sourcesin the Rajshahi, Pogra, Pabna area. The former calls for 300 tubewells aswell as 80 lovlif§ pumps to irrigate about 100,000 acres at a capital costof Rs. 36 million. The latter calls for 150 lowlift pumps to irrigateabout 200,OC0 acres at a capital cost of Rs, 30 million- All of these areoutside of areas commanded by any of the proposed major flow irrigationprojects. The a9ditional water will firm up supply for existing crops andexterd the croppi.ng season, producing an immaediate effect on yields andincreasing the acreage of early monsoon crops, which are no-w subject todrought risk, ard also makling it possible to itEsifyr the cropping patternon a year around basis. The advantage of this approach over the largescale flow irrigation approa.h is that water becomes available as each smallunit is completed, whereas substantial delays may be expected in the largerprojects before benefits become available. The Mission believes that atthis stage small pumps offer the best and quickest way of providingadditional water required for developing the cropping patterns and irriga-tion practices needed for full and efficient use of water resources inEast Pakistan,

APFENDIX BPage 5

The Teesta Barrage

The Teesta Project provides for a barrage across the Teesta Riverat Gadimari and a system of canals to irrigate 1.35 million acres. Esti-mated cost of the project is Rs. 1!.L3 million, of which Rs. 170 million isscheduled for the Plan period. WAPDA estimates value of the expected in-crease in crop production at Rs. 388 million annually. In addition, theproject provides for about 20,000 kw. of hydroelectric power. Preliminaryworks on the project have been started.

Although the project looks fairly good on the basis of the pre-liminary feasibility studies, there are still a number of unresolved problems.The Teesta River originates in the mountainous regions of Bhutan and Nepaland passes through India before entering Pakistan. Preliminary studies madebefore Partition provided for headworks in India, but were dropped sincemost of the commanded area was in Pakistan. The present project covers 80%of the area commanded by the former Indian project. The headworks are nowlocated at Gadimari, 9 miles from the international border. Important con-siderations were to avoid any possibility of submerging Indian territoryand to locate it at the highest site available in order to command as largean area as possible. Since the upstream control of the Teesta is not ulderthe jurisdiction of Pakistan the feasibility of the project will depend to alarge extent on India's willingness not to disturb the river by projectsfarther upstream. In addition, of course, the history of the Teesta, Gangesand Brahmaputra rivers does not give very strong assurance that the channelof the Teesta v'ill be stable at the site of the headworks. As a result,WAPDA is now carrying out extensive tests on a model of the Teesta beforefinalizing the design. Before these tests are completed and agreements canbe reached with India, the Iission believes that major construction workshould not be undertaken.

The experience with major irrigation projects in Pakistan, theGanges Kobadak Project shows the dangers involved in proceeding with majorconstruction prior to final determination of feasibility. The Mission feelsthat a project of the size of the Teesta should not be undertaken untildetailed design and cost estimates have been prepared - particularly in viewof the altemnative projects available. For the time being, efforts should beconfined to such studies and developing a program of pilot projects based onsmall pumps to develop irrigation practices in the area. This would permita quicker realization of benefits when engineering works are finally com-pleted and shorten the period of construction.

.-L,.NNING COMIMISSION(Agriculture Section)

Land Utilization of i'akistan far the year 1957-585

I 1 otal I Area not A R E A R E 0 R T E D I Total areaDistricts i Ar e Ireported iForestfNot lOther un- .| Cultivated Area | reported

I larea lavailablelcultivatod icurrontiNot |Total ~Aib ITotal I Co&t4,5,I I Ifor cultilland exclu Ifallow Irearea harea Isown Icropped | 6,9)I l I Ivation. Iding curr I Isown Icultiva-Imore than|area col.I

I I I I Ient fallowsl I Ited(Col.Ionce I I-1o) i- .1 1.I I _ _ __ 1 7- ,') I I

_ 1 1 2 1 3 I 4 1, 5 6 1 7 )( I 9 1 10 1 Ii 1 12In 'OCC t acres

East rakistan 350302 732 5,511 5 ,008 2 ,002 1 ,165 20,958 22,123 6,571 27,529 34,650Ix

West lakistan 197,924 92,221 3, 13C 50 ,2329 21,523 9,20)6 30,'947 4o,153 3, k C 34,365 115,703xxx

Karachi Federal 520 139 Nil 16i 101 17 52 69 Nil 52 '331Area

lll E'akistan 233 ,826 833,142 8,649 56 ,o53; 23,632 10 ,38' 51,957 62,345 9,9'99 61,946 150,684

x) Figures of East Pakistan related to the year 1954-55

xx) Figures of the under-mantioned areas for the year 1956-57 have been repeated:

1. Hyderabad District

2. Jacobabad District

3. *-.Ltta & Kolat Divisions.

xxx) Figures of Karachi Federal iArea related to the year 1953-54.

PLANITITG COMMISSIONAgriculture Section ) All Pakistac

22.11.60.Area under principal crops in Pakistan for the years 1947-48 to 1959- 60.

CROPS y1947-48 19 48-491949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952.- 53 1953.-.54 1954-55 1955-56 1956-57 1957-58 1958-59 1959-60

- In Thousand Acres --

Rice 20959 21499 21833 22399 22484 23021 24520 23705 21881 22456 22887 22487 24125

Wheat 9855 10686 10434 10893 10244 9530 10514 10633 11266 11720 11495 12032 12193

Bajra 1998 2330 2369 2404 2019 2213 2583 2192 2203 2288 1846 2003 1990

Jowar 1055 1181 1362 1256 1121 1317 1513 1126 1327 1358 955 1097 1128

Maize 905 952 1002 948 981 980 1072 1071 1070 1071 1072 1132 1199

Barley 488 658 583 511 513 570 602 536 539 525 542 550 630

Total Food 35260 37306 37583 38411 37362 37631 40804 39263 38286 39418 38797 39301 41265Grains

Gram 2387 3003 2599 2956 2310 2234 2764 3262 3423 3327 3134 3154 2954

Total FoodCrops 37648 40309 40182 41367 39672 39865 43568 42525 41709 42745 41931 42455 44219

Sugarcane 690 708 771 694 704 873 979 1017 967 1043 1234 1301 1261

Rape & Mustard 1491 158t 1384 1628 1867 1561 1581 1796 2010 1830 1745 2047 1965

Sesamum 203- 172 180 202 206 208 216 212 211 214 188 198 218

Jute 2059 1877 1561 1711 1279 1907 965 1243 1634 1230 1563 1528 1375

Cotton 3112 2654 2799 3071 3374 3480 2928 3194 3529 3608 3641 3324 3370

Tea 70 73 74 75 75 73 75 74 77 76 76 .76 78

Tobacoo 162 164 169 179 184 173 191 242 191 181 196 200 205

Total areaunder crops 45434 47538 47120 48927 47861 48140 50503 50303 50328 50927 50574 51129 52691

Source: Ministry of Agriculture

PLATNING COMMISSION All Pakist(Agriculture Section) 22.11.60.

Production of principal crops in Pakistan for the years 1947-48 to 1959-60.

CROP 21947-48g1948-49: 1949-5011950-51 1951-52 1952-5311953-5411954-55 1955-5611956-5711957-958-591 1959-60

- Thousand TonsRice(cleaned) 7418 8408 8169 8195 7753 8154 9151 8415 7212 9016 8460 7897 9461

Wheat 3321 3993 3885 3950 2984 2391 3611 3162 3339 3604 3530 3870 3876

Bajra 296 394 37) 386 265 267 461 345 340 363 274 309 324

Joar 202 242 267 24rf 205 220 288 220 249 255 183 212 229

Maize 355 375 4C04 384 379 3419 405 428 453 464 442 482 480

Barley 126 191 163 144 115 108 143 122 14,3 130 169 172 149

Total Food 1i718 13603 13258 13303 11701 114F89 14059 12695 11736 13832 13058 12942 14519Grain

Gram 5i6 804 651 791 474 369 615 656 732 716 688 606 627

Total Food 12234 14407 13909 14094 12175 11858 14674 13351 12468 14548 13746 13548 15146Crops

Sugarcane(cane) 8982 10229 10801 8817 8780 10895 12876 12454 12045 12717 14881 16126 14105

Rape & Mustard 250 268 228 285 *297 228 263 321 324 315 296 373 318

Sesaantm 36 29 27 35 -_ 3ThousaAN Boles36 36 37 33 27 34 34

Jute 6842 5479 3333 6007 6331 6823 3610 4662 5592 5514 6200 6000 5554

Cotton 1120 982 1255 1424 14'15.1801 1442 1600 1693 1725 1722 1605 1657----Miliion lbs--Test 28.1 34,.2 38.9 37.9 47.1 51.3 52.0 54.0 52.6 54.7 4,4.5 53.5 57.0

Tobacoo 131.6 141.4 148.7 162.4 178.9 167.1 194.4 280.9 197.4 192.2 202.3 221.6 198.1

Source:- Ministry of Agriculture.

PLANNING COMMISSION A( Agriculture Section ) 22.11.60.

Yield per acre of principal crops in Pakistan forthe years 1947-48 to 1959-60.

CROl- 01947-4801948-4901949-50 i950- 51_ l951-52 1952-532 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 1956-57 1957-58 1958-59 1959-60

_-- - In maunds

Rice(cleaned) 9.6 10.6 10.2 10.0 9.4 9.6 10.1 9.7 9.0 10.9 10.1 9.6 10.7

Wheat 9.2 10.2 10.1 9.9 7.9 6.8 9.3 8.0 8.0 8.4 8.4 8.8 8.7

Bajra 4.0 4.6 4.3 4.4 3.6 3.3 4.9 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.4

J0war 5.2 5.6 5.3 5.3 5.0 4.A6 5.1 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.5

Maize 10.7 10.7 11.0 11.0 10.5 9.7 10.2 10.8 11.5 11.8 11.2 11.6 10.9

Barley 7.0 7.9 7.6 7.7 6.1 5.2 6.4 6.2 7.2 6.7 8.5 8.5 6.4

Gran 5.9 7.3 6.8 7.3 5.6 4.5 6.0 5.5 5-8 5.9 6.0 5.2 5.8

Sugarcane(cane) 354.3 393.2 381.8 345.7 339.5 339.7 358.0 333.3 339.0 331.9 328.3 337.4 304.5

Rape seed &AMustard 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.8 4.3 4.0 -*5 *9 4*4 447 4.6 5.0 4.4

Sesanmum 4.8 4.6 4.1 4. 7 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.2 3.9 4.7 4.2

Jute 16.2 14.2 10.2 17.1 17.3 1 7. 4 18.2 18.2 16.6 21.8 19.3 19.1 19.6

Catton 1.7' 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.0C 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3

Tea ,4.9 5.7 6.4' 6.1 7.6 8.5 8.4 8.9 8.3 8.7 7.1 8.6 8.9

Tobacoo 9.9 10.5 10.6 11.0 11.8 11.7 12.4 1,4F.1 2t,6 12.9 12.5 13.5 11.7

Source: Ministry of Agriculture. mCD

PLANNING COMEISSION(Agriculture Sectior ) Eastast

Area under principal crops in East Palistan for the year 1947-48 to 1959-60.

CROPS i1947-48 1948-49 119449-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 1956-57 1957-58i1958--59 1959-60

_ In Thousand Acres --

Rice 19007 19424 19528 20007 20300 20778 22010 21336 19486 20055 20235 19643 _215

Wheat 85 95 97 94 96 98 98 103 94 133. 107 99 138

Bajra (a) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 (a) (a)

Jowzr 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Maize 6 7 12 13 10 10 10 9 9 6 7 5 7

Barley 73 85 86 82 82 86 84 86 88 72 57 60 64

Total Food 19172 19613 19725 20198 20490 20974 22204 21536 19679 20268 20408 19808 21361Grains

Gram 208 206 201 200 200 202 203 216 176 165 136 141 133

Total FoodCrops 19380 19819 19926 20398 20690 21176 22407 21752 19855 20433 20544 19949 21494

Sugarcane 224 225 227 226 229 246 262 264 259 255 252 244 281

Rape & Mustard 432 463 477 488 502 507 505 521 543 468 398 554 578

Sesamum 137 128 130 143 144 147 149 151 153 153 124 139 142

Jute 2059 1877 1561 1711 1779 1907 965 1243 1634 1230 1563 1528 1375

Cotton 56 55 55 55 56 58 58 58 52 53 51 51 52

Tea 70 73 74 75 75 73 75 74 77 76 76 76 78

Tobacoo 131 126 128 128 130 131 131 135 113 109 107 111 110

Total area m

under crops. 22489 22766 22578 23224 23605 24245 24552 24198 22686 22777 23115 22652 24110

Source: Ministry of Agriculture.

PLI.IYT1G COMMISSION(Agriculture Section) East Pakistan

........ ~~~~~~~~~22.11.60.Production of Principal crops in East Pakistan for the years 1947-48 to 1959-60.

CROP t1947-48 1948-49 61949-50 1950-5111951-52 §1952-53 1953-54 §1954-55 1955-56 1956-57[1957-58 1958-59[1959-60

_ Thousand Tons

Rice(cleaned) 6736 7673 7377 7343 7034 7335 8245 7589 6384 8185 7598 6921 8482

Wheat 20 19 23 20 23 24 24 26 22 23 22 25 29

Bajra (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b)

Jowar (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b)

Maize 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 2

Barley 15 16 17 15 16 16 16 17 17 16 12 14 12

Total Food 6773 7710 7420 7381 7075 7378 8288 7634 6426 8226 7635 6961 8525

Grain

Gram 51 50 52 7 52 53 54 63 44 35 35 38 29

Total Food Crops 6824 7760 7472 7428 7127 7431 8342 7697 6470 8261 7670 6999 8554

Sugarcane 3270 3411 3097 3335 3425 3675 3967 3696 3975 3911 3765 3834 3611

Rape & Mustard 78 83 86 89 lQO 103 100 105 104 93 67 105 83

Sesamum 28 24 21 27 28 30 30 30 31 27 21 28 26- -In Thousand Bales-

Jute 6842 5479 3333 6007 6331 6823 3610 4662 5592 5514 6200 6000 5554

Cotton 14 18 16 18 18 17 17 17 15 14 14 18 18---- In Million lbs-

Tea 28.1 34.2 38.9 37.9 47.1 51.3 52.0 54.0 52.6 54.7 44.5 53.5 57.0

Tobacoo 99.9 101.8 98.1 96.1 100.6 109.7 110.4 118.3 89.8 89.4 77.5 93.2 60.9

Source:- Ministry of Agriculture.

PLAiNING COIvIaSSION(Agriculture Section ) West Pakistan

Area under principal crops in West Pakistan for t he year 1947-48 to 1959-60. 22.11.60

CROPS 1947-48|11948-49 1949-50|1950-511951 -52 11952-5311953-541 1954-5511955-56[1956-571957-581958-5911959-60

-In Thousand acres-

Rice 1952 2075 2305 2392 2184 2243 2510 2369 2395 2401 2652 2844 2974

Wheat 957c, 10591 10337 10799 10148 9432 10416 10530 11172 11587 11388 11933' 12055

Bajra 1998 2329 2368 2403 2018 2212 2582 2191 2202 2287 1845 2003 1990

jowamr 1054 1180 1361 1155 11I0 1316 1512 1125 1326 1357 954 1096 1127

Maize 899 945 990 935 971 970 1062 1062 1061 1065 1065 1127 1192

Barley 415 573 497 429 431 484 518 450 451 453 485 490 566

Total-Food Graine 16088 17693 17858 18213 14872 16657 18600 17727 18607 19150 18389 19493 19904Gram 4"1 79 2797 2398 2756 .2110 2032 2561 3046 .3247 .162 99 0Jt 2821Total Food Cropsi8267 20490 20256 20969 18982 18698 161 P077~ 21854 ~2312 2 387 ~2506 P2725

Sugarcane 466 483 544 468 475 627 717 753 708 788 982 1057 980

Rape & Mastard 1059 1118 907 1140 1365 1054 1076 1275 1467 1362 1347 1493 1387

Sesamum 67 44 50 59 62 61 67 61 58 61 64 59 76

Cotton 3056 2599 2744 3016 3318 3422 2870 3136 3477 3555 3590 3273 3318

Toba'oo 30 37 41 51 54 42 60 107 78 72 89 89 95

Total area 22945 24771 24542 25703 24256 23895 25951 26105 27642 28150 27459 .28477 28581under crops

Source: Ministry of Agriculture.pi

PLANNING COMMISSION( Agriculture Section West Pakistan

22.11.60.Production of Principal crops in West Pakistan for the years 1947-48 to 1959-60.

CROP 1947-481948-49 11949-50 1950-5l§ 1951-521952-53§ 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 1956-5711957-58|1958-59g1959-60

i In !nousand TonsRice(cleaned) 682 735 792 352 719 819 906 826 828 831 862 976 979

Whcat 3301 3974 3862 3930 2961 2367 3587 3136 3317 3581 3508 3845 3847

Bajra 296 394 370 386 265 267 461 348 340 363 274 309 324

Ahuzar 202 242 237 244 205 220 288 220 249 255 183 212 229

Maize 353 373 401 381 377 346 402 426 450 462 440 481 478

Barley 111 175 146 129 99 92 127 105 126 114 157 158 137

Total Food Grain 4945 5893 5838 5922 4626 4111 5771 5061 5310 5606 5424 5981 5994

Gram 465 754 599 744 422 316 561 593 688 681 653 568 598

Total Food Crops 5410 6647 6437 6666 5048 4427 6332 5654 5998 6287 6077 6549 6592

Sugarcane 5712: 681i 771* 5402 5355- 7220 8909 8758 8070 8806 11116 12292 10494

Rape & Mustard 172 185 142 196 197 125 163 216 220 222 229 268 235

Sesamum 8 5 6 8 ,7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 8

- Thousand Bales -

Cotton 1106 964 1239 1406 1397 1784 1425 1583 1678 1711 1708 1587 1639

Million lbs -

Tobacoo 31.3 39.7 55.6 66.3 78.3 57.4 84.0 162.6 107.6 102.8 124.8 128.4 137.2

Source: Ministry of Agriculture. c