The World Bank

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

MT!Ci-MF TCHE CW.py Rept No. P-5490-EGT

h.ep-:rl. N(. , t 4C-E(P5-TU]C4G-IN3-. / Y:32Th7 , / E!41EI

MEMORANDUM AND RECOMMENDATION

OF THE

PRESIDENT OF THE

INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT

TO THE

EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS

ON A

PROPOSED LOAN

OF US$84 MILLION

TO THE EGYPTIAN GENERAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION

FOR A

GAS INVESTMENT PROJECT

JUNE 3, 1991

Ti docent has a restricted distribution and may be msed by redplit, only in the performance oftoeir official duties. Its contents may not otberwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit Egyptian Pound (LE) - 100 piastresLE 1.0 - US$0.353 (December 1990)US$1.0 LE2,83 (December 1990)

WEIGHTS AND MEASURES

BCM (billion cubic meters) - 35.3 billion cubic feetGWh (Gigawatt hour) - 1,000,000 kWhcm (centimeter) 0.4 inchmcf - thousand cubic feetmcfd thousand cubic feet per daymcm - thousand cubic metersmmcfd - million cubic feet/dayMT 8 million tonsMTOE - million tons of oil equivalentMW (Megawatt) - 1,000 kWOne cubic meter - 264 US gallons

- 35.31 cubic feetOne kilometer (km) - 0.6214 milesOne metric ton (mt) (1,000 kg)- 2,205 poundstcf - trillion cubic feettonne - 1.1 short ton

GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS

AIC - Average Incremental CostCIDA = Canadian International Development AgencyEGPC - Egyptian General Petroleum CorporationEIB = European Investment BankENPPI - Engineering Company for Petroleum and Process IndustriesESMAP - Energy Sector Management Assistance ProgramGCGDP - Greater Cairo Gas Distribution ProjectGDP - Gross Domestic ProductGEF = Global Environment FundGOE = Government of EgyptGPC - General Petroleum CompanyGUPCO = Gulf of Suez Petroleum CompanyICB = International Competitive BiddingIOC - International Oil CompanyLPG - Liquified Petroleum GasMIS - Management Information SystemPETROBEL = Belayim Petroleum CompanyPETROGAS Petroleum Gas Company pPPC = Petroleum Pipeline CorporationPPAR = Project Performance and Audit ReportPRS = Pressure Regulation StationsPSC = Production Sharing ContractSAL - Structural Adjustment LoanSCADA - Supervisory Control and Data AcquisitionSUCO = Suez Oil CompanyTGG - Trans Gulf GasTOR - Terms of ReferenceWEPCO - Western Desert Petroleum Company

FISCAL YEAR

July 1 - June 30

FOR OMFICAL USE ONLY

an4 REPULIC OF ENMP

gm n ENT PROJECT

~ AND POJC SUMMRY

Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation

Guarantor: Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt

Loan kAount: US$84 million equivalent

ZTems. 20 years, including 5 years grace, at the standardvariable interest rate.

-LnancinL Plan: IBRD US$ 84.0 millionEGPC US$112.5 millionPetrogas US$ 56.0 millionSIB USS 33.0 million

Total US$285.5 million

Eonomic Rate of Return: 18X.

Staff Appraisal Recort: Report No. 9383-EGT dated June 3, 1991

Na : IBRD Nos. 22905 and 22906

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performa '.ceof their official dutios. Its contents may not otherwise be disclOsed without World Bank authoruio&tn

MORANDUM AND RECOIMDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OFTHE INTERNATIONAL BAN K FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT

TO THE MXECUTIVE DIRECTORSON A PROPOSED LOAN TO THE EGYPTIAN GENERAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION

WITH A GUARANTEE RON THE ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPTFOR A GAS INVESTMENT PROJECT

1. The following memorandum with recommendation on a proposed loan tothe Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation for US$84 million equivalent issubmitted for your approval. The loan would be guaranteed by the ArabRepublic of Egypt. The proposed loan would be on standard IBRD terms of 20years maturity, including a five-year grace period at the standard variableinterest rate and would help finance a Gas Investment Project. The projectwould be cofinanced by the European Investment Bank for US$33 million. Inparallel with the project, the Bank/UNDP Energy Sector Management AssistanceProgram (ESNAP) would carry out a study on the Cost of Gas Distribution and,in association with the Global Environment Fund, undertake a Gulf of Suez GasDevelopment Study. The Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation and Petrogaswould contribute the balance of the remaining US$168.5 million equivalent ofthe project cost.

2. Sector backuround. Key sector issues being addressed by theGovernment are: (i) how to entice oil companies to explore and developnatural gas; and (ii) how to bring domestic prices to international levels.The Government is encouraging international oil companies to underta'ke gasexploration by offering attractive terms, and some 134 agreements hive beensigned. However, the demand for gas presently exceeds the supply - a problemwhich is expected to persist over the next decade. Given that gas is theleast-cost primary source of energy in Egypt and given the relativelyattractive environmental enefits of its use, supplying natural gas isaccorded a high priority. This project would support the Government in theseefforts. The Bank has financed four projects in the gas subsector, which haveall been completed, with PPARs issued for three. The main lessons learned,which have been taken into account in designing this project, include: (i) theresolution of sector issues must be sought through projects; (ii) thepackaging of works must be done so that contractual responsibilities areproperly secured with a view to avoiding tiae slippages; (iii) the projectscope must be sufficiently comprehensive to ensure that the envisionedbenefits can be achieved; and (iv) an appropriate incentive system must be inplace for the benefits to accrue. As regards petroleum product prices, theGovernment has undertaken the first two steps in a five-year energy pricereform program in which prices will be increased to international levels by nolater than June 1995.

3. Bank Stratemy and Rationale for Involvement. The Bank's countryassistance strategy for Egypt cills for lending for gas investment projectsbecause of the positive impact freeing oil for export has on the balance ofpayments. Energy pricing has been a cornerstone of the Bank's dialogue withthe Government, in view of its importance for energy conservation, budgetsupport and the current account balance. In 1989 the Government agreed toincrease petroleum product prices to the equivalent of internationally tradedproducts and to increase electricity prices to LRMC by June 1995. The first

steps toward achieving this goal were lmplemented in 1989 by increasingweighted average petroleum product prices by 16 percent and electricity pricesby 30 percent. In March 1990, the energy price adjustment agreement with theGovernment was upgraded to include annual targets for weighted averagepetroleum product prices (starting at 45 percent in May 1990 and increasing atleast 11 percentage points each year thereafter to reach 100 percent by June1995) and electricity prices (starting at 47 percent of IiMC in May 1990 andincreasing by 10-12 percentage points of LRMC each year thereafter to reach100 percent of LRMC by June 1995). This program of energy price adjustmentswill not only enhance the financial health of the sector but will also have asubstantial impact on the budget deficit. Transfers from the energy sector tothe budget in both FY91 and FY92 are expected to increase by about IL 2billion (about 2 percent of GDP) in both years. A similar increase intransfers to the budget is projected for the following year. In May 1990, theGovernment fulfilled the first target by increasing weighted average petroleumproduct prices by 44 percent and electricity prices by 38 percent. In May1991, the Government met the agreed upon next step of price increases byincreasing weighted average petroleum product prices by 52 percent andelectricity prices by 50 percent. The Government also addressed the problemof the structure of energy prices in addition to the level of subsidies to thesector by targeting products with the highest level of subsidy. Thus, theBank has already been effective in persuading the Government to move faster insetting price incentives which improve the attractiveness of using least-costfuels. The rationale for Bank involvement in this project centers onsupporting the Government's energy price reform program, and acting as acatalyst to attract co-financing for investments in the gas subsector whichcomplement private sector initiatives and mitigate environmental problems.

4. Project Objectives. The specific project objectives would be to:(a) promote the efficient development and utilization of gas resources byincreasing the delivery of natural gas; (b) substitute gas for higher valuetradeable petroleum products to increase the export potential of the latter;(c) help improve the air quality in the Greater Cairo area by decreasing theoutput of carbon dioxide and sulphur oxides; and (d) continue institutionbuilding efforts to increase the commercialization of Petrogas.

5. Project Desclptioon. The project would consist of the followingcomponents: (i) the Greater Cairo Gas Distribution comnonent to finance thepipeline and related equipment for extending the existing gas distributionsystem to 235,000 additional households, 5,000 commercial and 22 industrialestablishments in Cairo, displ4cing LPG, gas oil and fuel oil; the componentwould include training to enhance the commercialization of Petrogas; and (ii)the Trans Gulf Gas cogmonent to finance gas compressors, gas treatmentfacilities and the platform template required for the gathering of an extra 70mmcfd of gas for delivery to the national grid. Parallel to and in closeassociation with the project, three additional studies would be performed: astudy to determine an investment plan for the refinery sector that wouldaddress the domestic fuel mix imbalance exacerbated by increased natural gassupply; a Gulf of Suez Gas Development Study to determine an investment planto address the increased use of shut-in and flared associated gas using theGlobal Environment Fund and ESMAP resources; and a Cost of Gas Distribution

- 3 -

Study to be carried out by ESNAP. The project has been classified as aCategory B project with regard to its environmental impact; no adverse impactis expected.

6. The project would be implemented over a period of six years by EGPCand Petrogas. The total cost is estimated at US$285.5 million with a foreignexchange component of US$169.0 million (59 percent). A breakdown of costs andthe financing plan are shown in Schedule A. Amounts and methods ofprocurement and disbursement and the disbursement schedule are shown inSchedule B. The timetable of key processing events is given in Schedule C andthe status of Bank Group operations in the Arab Republic of Egypt is given inSchedule D. Maps for the Greater Cairo Gas Distribution Component and TransGulf Gas Component are also attached. The Staff Appraisal Report No. 9383-EGT dated June 3, 1991 is being circulated separately.

7. Actions A8reed. The Government has instituted an energy pricereform program in which the domestic prices of petroleum products, natural gasand electricity would be adjusted annually in consultation with the Bank sothat the weighted average petroleum product prices would be 67 percent ofinternational equivalents by June 1992 and would be increased by at least 11percentage points in each of the next three years, and electricity priceswould be increased to 69 percent of long-run marginal cost by June 1992 andfurther increased by at least 10 percentage points in each of the next threeyears. The price increases of bulk natural gas sales would be linked todomestic fuel oil price increases to reach international fuel oil equivalentby June 1995. Adjustment in petroleum product prices increases would focus onincreasing the prices for the most heavily subsidized products by an amountgreater than average. In addition, the main actions agreed with GOE, EGPC andPetrogas are: (i) the consolidated net revenues of EGPC and its subsidiarieswould not be less than 1.5 times the consolidated debt; (ii) margins onnatural gas sales of Petrogas would be maintained such that revenues would besufficient for a debt service coverage ratio of not less than 1.5 and a self-financing ratio of not less than 25 percent for gas operations; (iii) theconstruction of facilities for the Trans Gulf Gas Component would beundertaken in accordance with environmental standards satisfactory to the Bankand the progress reports would include all information regarding adherence tosuch standards; (iv) Petrogas would establish a marketing unit within itsorganization by June 30, 1992 and would undertake a gas market developmentsurvey by December 31, 1992; (v) the Cost of Gas Distribution Study would becompleted by December 31, 1992; and (vi) the Refinery Sector InvestmentPlanning Study and the Gulf of Suez Gas Development Plan Study would becompleted by December 31, 1993. Conditions of loan effectivenessinclude: (i) conclusion of the EIB Loan Agreement, and fulfillment of allconditions precedent to the effectiveness of the EIB Loan Agreement; (ii)execution of a revised contract between Petrogas and Egypt Gas; and (iii)execution of a Subsidiary Loan Agreement between EGPC and Petrogas.

8. Justification and Risk. Economic benefits are expected fromincreased gas production of about 70 mmefd; from the substitution of gas inabout 235,000 households, 5,000 commercial establishments and 22 lndustriesfor exportable petroleum products amounting to about 8U,O%00 tons of LPG p.a.,

30,000 tons of fuel oil p.a. and 35,000 tons of gas oil p.a. by the year 2000;and from better capacity utilization of the existing national transmissionnetwork, as well as from the Cairo gas distribution main lines. There wouldbe significant environmental benefits since gas would displace the petroleumproducts used in urban areas. The risks associated with the gas distributioncomponent concern market penetration. Price incentives to switch to naturalgas use were established ulth the May 3, 1991 energy price adjustments. Inaddition, the training components for Petrogas would increase itscommercialization, resulting in increased returns on capital employed. Thereare no substautial risks for the Trans Gulf Gas Component.

9. Regogndati . I am satisfied that the proposed loan would complywith the Articles of Agreement of the Bank and recommend that the ExecutiveDirectors approve the proposed loan.

Barber B. ConablePresident

by

Wilfried P. Thalwitz

AttachmentsWashington, D.C.June 3, 1991

Schedule A

ARAB REPUBLIC 0?F GYP?

GAS IXNVESTNENT PRJECT

Estimated Costs(US$ Million)

Fore1gnas X of X of

Locat Forun Totat TotRa Sase CostGreater Cairo Gas DOstribution Cowsonent

Nateriats 13.4 67.8 81.2 83.5 34.3Construction 67.8 23.3 91.1 25.6 38.5Technical Services and Training 4.4 8.0 12.4 64.5 5.2ease Cost 85.6 99.1 184.7 53.7 78.0

Trans Gulf Gas ConmentEquipment and Naterials 4.7 31.8 36.5 87.1 15.4Constructfon 1.8 5.3 7.1 74.6 3.0Technical Services and Training 2.1 6.5 8.6 75.6 3.6Base Cost 8.6 43.6 52.2 83.5 -2Sase Project Cost 94.2 142.7 236.9 60.2 100.0

Physical Contingency 8.0 7.6 15.6 48.7Price Contingency 14.3 15.6 29 2.2 U

Total Project Cost 116.5 165.9 282.4 58.7

Interest Ouring Construction (IDC) 0.0 3.1 --LI1 100.0Total Project Cost + IoC 116.5 169.0 285.5 S9.2

a== .-s V=

Financint Plan:

Local Foreig Total X of Total-------------(US$ Million)-

EGPC 60.5 52.0 112.5 39.4Petrogas 56.0 0.0 56.0 19.6IBRD 0.0 84.0 84.0 29.4EIB 0.0 33.0 33.0 11.6

Total 116.5 169.0 285.5 100.0

-6-

Page 1 of 2aR"B REPUBLC OF EGYPT

gm TSU PROIC

Procurement Method and Dsb-ursement.(US$ million)

Procurement MethodILB IL gfOtr LI Total Cost

Greater Cairo Gas DistributionG=monent

Steel pipes, P.E. p!.pes and 24.6 24.6fittings

Network regulating stations 7.5 7.5

Customer meters & regulators 18.6 1.4 20.0(18.3) (18.3)

Miscellaneous network fillings A/ 28.9 28.9(28.6) (28.6)

Consulting services 140.4 140.4

Training 1.3 1.3-- Li.2 (1.2)

Subtotal 47.5 175.2 222.7(79.9) (1.2) (48.1)

Tran Gu,lf Gas Comoonent

Gas surveys 0.4 0.4Compressors andassociated equipment 10.0 4.0 2.5 16.5

(10.0) (4.0) (14.0)Platform template 9.5 9.3 18.8

(9.5) (2.0) (11.5)Submarine pipeline 2.2 2.2

Gas treatment equipment 4.4 4.0 5.0 13.4& related services (4.4) (4.0) (2.0) (10.4)

Construction and consulting 8.9 8.9servicas

Subtotal 23.9 8.0 28.3 60.2(23.9) (8.0) (4.0) (35.9)

TOTAL 71.4 8.0 203.5 282.9(70.8) (8.0) (5.2) (84.0)

Note:1. Figures in parentheses to be financed by the Bank.2L The components to be cofinanced by EIB (US$33 million) are given under

other.L/ Consists of 15 small packages.

-7-

S,che,dult BPage 2 of 2

Disbursement Schedule

Ciategory USS Million I Eennditures to be Financed

Equipment and material 48.0 100l of foreign expendituresunder GCGDC 100 of local expenditures

(factory cost)

Compressors, gas treatment 34.0 100l of foreign expendituresplatform template anc. 1001 of local expendituresassociated equipment (factory cost)

Training and consulting services 1.0 1001 of expendituresUnallocated .O

Total 84.0

satimated Bank Disbursements:

£x2. F2Y3 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97Annual 7.7 35.5 15.3 10.8 11.3 3.4Cumulative '.7 43.2 58.5 69.3 80.6 84.0

8-

Schedule

ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT

GAS INVESTMENT PROJECT

Timetable of Key Prgiect Processing Events

(a) Time Taken to Prepare: Three years

(b) Prepared by: EGPC and Petrogas, with assistancefrom their consultants and the Bank

(c) First IBRD Mission: January 1988

(d) Appraisal Mission Departure: November 1990

(e) Negotiations: May 1991

(f) Planned Date of Effectiveness: September 1991

(g) Relevant PCRs and PPARs: - Gulf of Suez Gas Project(PPAR No. 6880)

- Abu Qir Gas Development Project(PCR No. 7536)

- Cairo Gas Distribution Project(PPAR No. 6860)

- 9

Page 1 of 2ARAB REPUBIJC OF EG

GAS INVESTT PRQJECT

STATUS OF BAUK aGR OP _RATIONS IN EGYPT

A. STAT1MSNI QF BABE 1005ARD IDA CREDITSt

(As of Dwcwb t 31, 1090)

A>munt in million US dollarsLoan/Credit Apnroved Borrower Purpote (less cancellations)Numbers FY Bank IDA Undiabursed

65 Loans and Credits fully disbursed' 1,578.0 799.1

La 1886-1 84 EEA POwer III 59.0 -- 10.3Cr 1083 81 RE New Land Development -- 80.0 083CZ 1158 81 ARE Beheira Water Supply -- 56.6 11.73cr 1162 81 ARE Technical Assistance -- 6.9 2 93In 2176 82 ABE Greater Cairo Urban Developmant 54.0 -- 10.8Ln 2183 83 ARE E1 Dikheila Port 56.2 -- 8.5Li 2264 83 ARE Vocational Training 33.1 -- 18.5La 2270 Go ARE Irrisation Pump. Stations Rehab. I 41.5 -- 13.3Ln 2458 84 ARE Small- and fed.- Scale Ind. 170.0 -- 133.7La 2459 84 ARE Export industry 102.2 -- 84.6Lim 2460 84 ARE Construction Industry 51.6 -- S1. 0Lin 2561 85 ARE Agricultural Development II 80.0 -- 31.6Ln 2562 85 ARE Drainage V 63.0 -- 38.6LN 2569 85 PSPA Port Said Port 20.0 -- 2.9Lt 2594 85 ARE Vocational Training (Electricity) 19.3 -- 16.4Ln 2732 8a ARE Channel Maaintenmce 45.0 -- 41.6La 30714 89 ARE Agricultural Storage 40.0 -- 40.0Ln 3103 89 EEA Power IV 165.0 -- 164.5La 31374 S0 ARE Engineering & Tech. Education 30.5 -- 30.5La 3198J 90 ARE Irris. Pump. Stations Rebab. IT 31.0 _ 31.0

.Totals 2,639.4 942.6 752.2Of which has Deen repaid __71. 2.4jTotal now outstanding 1,847 .5 915.2Aosunt sold 7.5Of which haa been repaid 7.5Total now held by Bavk and IDA 1.4t.s 915.2

}/ The status of projects listed in Part A is described in a separate report on all Bank/IDA financed projects in execution,which is updated twice yearly and circulated to the Executive Directors on April 30 and October 31.

V/ Excludes 3 credits for engineering. which were subsequently refinanced; a US$1 million PPF advance granted for the GreaterCairo Urban Development project; and an EEC Special Action Credit of US$35.0 million equivalent tar the Shoubrab El %heimaThermal Power Project.

I/ Credit denominated in SDRs. Amount shown is US$ equivalent at time of negotiations for the IDA amount, and US$ equivalentat December 31, 1990 for the undisbursed amount.

N/ lot yet effective.

N lot yet signed.

- 10 -

Schedule DPage 2 of 2

ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT

GAS INVESTlMNT PROJECT

F. STATEfMEDNT OF ZYC IXNVESIMfERTSS. a of Deemer31.1990)~

Fiscal.Year Obligor Type of Business Loan Equity Total

----------(US8 Million)---------

86 Aluissnm Sulphate Co. Chemicals & Petrochemicals - 0.56 0.56

76. 82 Arab Ceramic Company Ceramic Industry 6.63 1.11 7.74

78 Mile Clothing Company Ready-Made Garnent Industry 0.43 0.16 0.59

78 Delta sugar Company Agricultural Production. Mainly Susar 20.00 3.51 23.51

79, 83 Ismaelia "ir Food and Food Processing 12.07 2.29 14.36Poultry Cempany

as Egypt Investment Money and Capital Fabket 1.50 0.14 1.64Finunce Corp.

80, 81 Ismailia Fish Farming Food and Food Processing 3.98 1.05 5.01

80 Suez Cement Company Building Materials 30.00 - 30.00

84 El-DikhaiLe Irn and Steel 95.20 7.20 102.40

81 Luror Hotel Tourism Project 3.76 1.37 5.13

87 Maleiba Oil Development Chemicals and Petrochemicals - 28.70 28.706 Exploration Proj.

88 Bechtel Egypt S.A.& Other - 0.10 0.10

S8 Phoenix Resources Co. Mergy 20.00 - 20.00

91 Victoria United Tourism ,30 -_ 5L3

Total Gross Comaitents 198.85 46.19 245.04

Less: Cancellations, terminations, repayments *alesand ezohange adJustments 174I1 12.79 187L70

Total comitmnts now held by TIC 29 S4hI 3 5S

Total Undisbursed Q 5 0650(including participants portion)

26 Km

PAS BUDRN u o

RAS AD RUDE, ARPORT

/S 4 I NA!

Octob.zFieldNe

- - Po~~~~~~~intIA.~~AJ~' 12Km

16 Pra assin *

190 KtA Faciliis

_ 'i GULF 2796 KmGOF

SUEZRos Btakerl

16' FPcilies Petrobe andDistillotionPlant

FEIRAN

To Sw(

WEST F i1rd"e

BANK BEIAYM SAi

ARAB REPUBUC OF EGYPTGAS INVESTMENT PROJECT

TRANS GULF COMPONENT

__ ~~~~~~~Project: Bdsling:OF SAUDI - - ON LAND PIPELINES

ARASIA ' ' OFFSHORE SUBMERGED PIPELINES

R EPUBLIC M [ \J MEASURING AND CONTROL STATIONSOF EGYPT * COMPRESSION STATIONS

-ROADS

SUDAN BUILT-UPAREASAP13L 1991

AW REPUBUC OF EGYPT

GREATER CAIRO GAS DISTRIBUTION PROJECT

> 7 j/z~ t / / A / / / / / >/H.P. DISTRIBUTION MAIN (R21S

g = | ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PRESSURE REGUWING STATIONS | /( o<O _!+ O~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ DISTRICT REGULATING STATIONS ,%/~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~RA 4SSTO HAVE GAS

\ X- _ /7 v ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~H.PR DISTRIBUTION MAIN (24'jJ / .6 ',^v ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- 7BAR MAINS

J { o¢ . * ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~POWER STATIONSl j i5*+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~mids a PRESSURE REGULATING STATIONS

/ i e 7 ~~~~3 4 7* ; DISTRICT REGULATING STATIONS

/ aLoSTn t SJ2\ N ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~GAS AREAS/ \ . ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~BUILT-UP AREAS _o

X tl = Ziz *'Zl4 INDUSTRIAL CONSUMERS t. r,_--- F /-1