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Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chairing Agency Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service Farm Service Agency Agricultural Marketing Service World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report of May 10, 2018

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

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Page 1: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing Agency

Economic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural Service

Farm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service

World Agricultural Supply and Demand EstimatesReport of May 10 2018

WASDE World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

Secretarys WASDE Briefing Slides

Foreign Ag Service World Agricultural Production

Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin

Links to the latest WASDE related publicationsOffice of the Chief Economist

World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)

US Drought Monitor ( in cooperation with NOAA and NDMC)

World Wheat Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 7584 -14 7478 -106United States 474 -- 496 22

Foreign 7110 -14 6982 -128Argentina 180 -- 195 15Canada 300 -- 325 25Australia 215 -- 240 25European Union 1516 1504 -12Turkey 210 -- 200 -10Russia 850 -- 720 -130Ukraine 270 -- 265 -05Kazakhstan 148 -- 140 -08China 1298 -- 1290 -08India 985 -- 950 -35Northwest Africa 106 -01 124 19

-- No change Rounds to zero

May 10 2018

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

In sw Russia temperatures did not get low enough to threaten exposed winter wheat despite a shallow and

fleeting snow cover

Fall SpringWinter

Planting HeadFlower

The consistent theme across western FSUAbundant subsurface moisture supplies are in

sharp contrast with rapidly drying topsoils

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter Wheat

Very warm weather over the past 7 days has accelerated wheat development considerably

Source Decadal WMO station data

Southern

North Caucasus

Central

Volga

Ukraine

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Apr 2

1

Apr 2

8

May

5

May

12

May

19

May

26

June

2

June

9

June

16

June

23

100

0 he

ctar

esRussia Spring Wheat Sowing Progress

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sources Rosstat (2017) MinAg forecast (2018)

Planting is nearly 50 complete in the Central District (a minor spring-wheat area) but is just underway in the Volga Ural and

Siberian Districts

May 10 2018

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Tons

per

hec

tare

Russia Wheat Estimated Yield

Winter wheat Spring wheat

Sources Rosstat (1998-2017) FAS forecast (2018)

bull The forecast winter-wheat yield is 6 above average and 10 below last yearrsquos record

bull The forecast spring-wheat yield matches the 5-year average and is 16 below last yearrsquos record

May 10 2018

Source USDA (2007-2017) FAS forecasts (2018)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9019

9219

9319

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9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

18

Yiel

d (T

Ha)

Area

(MH

a) a

nd P

rodu

ctio

n (M

MT)

Russia Wheat Estimated Area Yield and Production

Harvested area Production Yield

Production is forecast at 720 mmt (down 135 mmt from last year) and yield at 277 tha (down 12 from last year)

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Map data courtesy of SAGEUniv of Wisconsin and based on FAOUSDA May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Winter Wheat

An historically dry autumn in key western production areas delayed wheat planting and left

soils devoid of moisture for establishment Conditions were favorable in the east

Fall SpringWinter

Planting HeadFlower

May 10 2018

The start of the 2017-18 cool wet season was

historically dry in northern Morocco

Conversely since then it has been the wettest

over the past 30 years In northern Morocco

Selected Region(Primary Wheat)

Morocco Satellite-Derived Vegetation Index

MODIS Aqua NDVI 8-Day Seasonal ChartSPAM 2005 masked for wheat

Showing significantly above-average peak greenness and later-than-normal development

Current Crop

May 10 2018

The VHI supports much-above-average yields across the entire region though inland winter dryness in Tunisia trimmed prospects locally

Winter Wheat

May 10 2018

Northwest Africa Wheat Yield and Production

Northwest Africa Wheat Area

Source USDA PSD Data

Source USDA PSD Data

May 10 2018

World Wheat Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2559 13 2705 146Production 7584 -14 7478 -106Total Supply 10143 -01 10182 39

Feed use 1454 -04 1456 02Total use 7438 07 7539 101

Trade 1821 1884 64Ending Stocks 2705 -08 2643 -61

Rounds to zero

US Wheat Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 460 -- 473 13Harvested area (million acres) 376 -- 389 14Yield (bushels per acre) 463 -- 468 05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 1181 -- 1070 -110Production 1741 -- 1821 81Imports 155 -- 135 -20Total supply 3076 -- 3027 -50

Food use 963 8 965 2Seed 63 1 62 -1Feed and residual 70 -- 120 50Domestic use 1096 9 1147 51

Exports 910 -15 925 15Total use 2006 -6 2072 66

Ending stocks 1070 6 955 -116----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 533 05 461 -73

Average market price 470 005 450550 030-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Rice Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 4882 08 4895 13United States 57 -- 65 08

Foreign 4826 08 4830 05Argentina 08 -- 08 01Brazil 81 -- 80 -01Egypt 43 -- 33 -10Bangladesh 327 -- 347 21Burma 132 -- 134 02Cambodia 54 04 55 01China 1460 -- 1445 -15India 1100 -- 1090 -10Indonesia 370 -- 373 03Japan 76 76 Sri Lanka 25 -- 26 01Pakistan 75 -- 74 -01Philippines 123 -- 124 Thailand 204 -- 210 06Vietnam 286 01 287 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

World Rice Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74

Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
05
29
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05
28
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1
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1
3
11
3
11
3
12
31
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32
13
32
13
33
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33
14
34
15
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35
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2
41
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26
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3
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4
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5
69
51
7
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7
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7
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7
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71
57
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7
59
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6
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6
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6
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55
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8
55
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81
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82
58
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59
82
6
83
6
83
6
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6
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61
83
6
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6
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6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
59
82
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82
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82
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81
55
81
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8
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8
52
79
51
79
5
78
49
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49
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48
77
47
76
46
76
45
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45
75
44
74
43
73
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73
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71
41
7
4
7
4
68
4
68
39
67
39
66
39
65
39
64
38
63
39
62
39
61
39
61
39
6
39
58
39
58
4
57
4
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4
55
4
54
41
53
41
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42
5
42
49
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4
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24
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2
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2
44
19
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44
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44
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11
44
11
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11
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1
44
1
45
09
44
09
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09
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41
06
4
06
4
05
39
05
38
06
38
06
37
06
36
05
36
05
35
06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
Jul-01 Jul-01
Jul-02 Jul-02
Jul-03 Jul-03
Jul-04 Jul-04
Jul-05 Jul-05
Jul-06 Jul-06
Jul-07 Jul-07
Jul-08 Jul-08
Jul-09 Jul-09
Jul-10 Jul-10
Jul-11 Jul-11
Jul-12 Jul-12
Jul-13 Jul-13
Jul-14 Jul-14
Jul-15 Jul-15
Jul-16 Jul-16
Jul-17 Jul-17
Jul-18 Jul-18
Jul-19 Jul-19
Jul-20 Jul-20
Jul-21 Jul-21
Jul-22 Jul-22
Jul-23 Jul-23
Jul-24 Jul-24
Jul-25 Jul-25
Jul-26 Jul-26
Jul-27 Jul-27
Jul-28 Jul-28
Jul-29 Jul-29
Jul-30 Jul-30
Jul-31 Jul-31
Aug-01 Aug-01
Aug-02 Aug-02
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Page 2: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

WASDE World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

Secretarys WASDE Briefing Slides

Foreign Ag Service World Agricultural Production

Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin

Links to the latest WASDE related publicationsOffice of the Chief Economist

World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)

US Drought Monitor ( in cooperation with NOAA and NDMC)

World Wheat Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 7584 -14 7478 -106United States 474 -- 496 22

Foreign 7110 -14 6982 -128Argentina 180 -- 195 15Canada 300 -- 325 25Australia 215 -- 240 25European Union 1516 1504 -12Turkey 210 -- 200 -10Russia 850 -- 720 -130Ukraine 270 -- 265 -05Kazakhstan 148 -- 140 -08China 1298 -- 1290 -08India 985 -- 950 -35Northwest Africa 106 -01 124 19

-- No change Rounds to zero

May 10 2018

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

In sw Russia temperatures did not get low enough to threaten exposed winter wheat despite a shallow and

fleeting snow cover

Fall SpringWinter

Planting HeadFlower

The consistent theme across western FSUAbundant subsurface moisture supplies are in

sharp contrast with rapidly drying topsoils

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter Wheat

Very warm weather over the past 7 days has accelerated wheat development considerably

Source Decadal WMO station data

Southern

North Caucasus

Central

Volga

Ukraine

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Apr 2

1

Apr 2

8

May

5

May

12

May

19

May

26

June

2

June

9

June

16

June

23

100

0 he

ctar

esRussia Spring Wheat Sowing Progress

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sources Rosstat (2017) MinAg forecast (2018)

Planting is nearly 50 complete in the Central District (a minor spring-wheat area) but is just underway in the Volga Ural and

Siberian Districts

May 10 2018

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Tons

per

hec

tare

Russia Wheat Estimated Yield

Winter wheat Spring wheat

Sources Rosstat (1998-2017) FAS forecast (2018)

bull The forecast winter-wheat yield is 6 above average and 10 below last yearrsquos record

bull The forecast spring-wheat yield matches the 5-year average and is 16 below last yearrsquos record

May 10 2018

Source USDA (2007-2017) FAS forecasts (2018)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9019

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

18

Yiel

d (T

Ha)

Area

(MH

a) a

nd P

rodu

ctio

n (M

MT)

Russia Wheat Estimated Area Yield and Production

Harvested area Production Yield

Production is forecast at 720 mmt (down 135 mmt from last year) and yield at 277 tha (down 12 from last year)

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Map data courtesy of SAGEUniv of Wisconsin and based on FAOUSDA May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Winter Wheat

An historically dry autumn in key western production areas delayed wheat planting and left

soils devoid of moisture for establishment Conditions were favorable in the east

Fall SpringWinter

Planting HeadFlower

May 10 2018

The start of the 2017-18 cool wet season was

historically dry in northern Morocco

Conversely since then it has been the wettest

over the past 30 years In northern Morocco

Selected Region(Primary Wheat)

Morocco Satellite-Derived Vegetation Index

MODIS Aqua NDVI 8-Day Seasonal ChartSPAM 2005 masked for wheat

Showing significantly above-average peak greenness and later-than-normal development

Current Crop

May 10 2018

The VHI supports much-above-average yields across the entire region though inland winter dryness in Tunisia trimmed prospects locally

Winter Wheat

May 10 2018

Northwest Africa Wheat Yield and Production

Northwest Africa Wheat Area

Source USDA PSD Data

Source USDA PSD Data

May 10 2018

World Wheat Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2559 13 2705 146Production 7584 -14 7478 -106Total Supply 10143 -01 10182 39

Feed use 1454 -04 1456 02Total use 7438 07 7539 101

Trade 1821 1884 64Ending Stocks 2705 -08 2643 -61

Rounds to zero

US Wheat Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 460 -- 473 13Harvested area (million acres) 376 -- 389 14Yield (bushels per acre) 463 -- 468 05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 1181 -- 1070 -110Production 1741 -- 1821 81Imports 155 -- 135 -20Total supply 3076 -- 3027 -50

Food use 963 8 965 2Seed 63 1 62 -1Feed and residual 70 -- 120 50Domestic use 1096 9 1147 51

Exports 910 -15 925 15Total use 2006 -6 2072 66

Ending stocks 1070 6 955 -116----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 533 05 461 -73

Average market price 470 005 450550 030-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Rice Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 4882 08 4895 13United States 57 -- 65 08

Foreign 4826 08 4830 05Argentina 08 -- 08 01Brazil 81 -- 80 -01Egypt 43 -- 33 -10Bangladesh 327 -- 347 21Burma 132 -- 134 02Cambodia 54 04 55 01China 1460 -- 1445 -15India 1100 -- 1090 -10Indonesia 370 -- 373 03Japan 76 76 Sri Lanka 25 -- 26 01Pakistan 75 -- 74 -01Philippines 123 -- 124 Thailand 204 -- 210 06Vietnam 286 01 287 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

World Rice Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74

Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
05
29
05
28
05
28
05
27
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27
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27
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28
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28
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28
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29
09
29
1
29
1
3
11
3
11
3
12
31
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31
13
32
13
32
13
33
14
33
14
34
15
34
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36
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18
38
18
39
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39
2
4
2
41
21
42
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22
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46
24
47
24
48
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48
26
49
26
5
27
51
28
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28
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53
29
54
3
55
31
56
31
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32
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4
59
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5
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5
53
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6
44
61
44
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64
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46
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68
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48
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49
69
5
69
51
7
52
7
52
7
53
7
54
7
55
7
56
7
56
7
57
71
57
71
58
7
59
7
6
71
6
71
6
7
61
71
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71
61
71
62
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71
62
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62
71
62
71
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61
72
6
72
6
72
6
72
6
72
59
73
59
72
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73
58
73
57
74
57
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56
74
56
75
56
75
55
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55
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55
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54
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54
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54
77
54
78
54
78
55
78
55
79
55
79
55
79
55
8
55
8
56
8
56
8
57
81
57
81
57
82
58
82
58
82
59
82
59
82
59
82
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
61
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
59
82
59
82
58
82
58
82
57
82
56
82
55
81
55
81
54
8
53
8
52
79
51
79
5
78
49
78
49
77
48
77
47
76
46
76
45
75
45
75
44
74
43
73
42
73
42
72
41
71
41
7
4
7
4
68
4
68
39
67
39
66
39
65
39
64
38
63
39
62
39
61
39
61
39
6
39
58
39
58
4
57
4
56
4
55
4
54
41
53
41
52
42
51
42
5
42
49
43
48
43
47
44
46
44
45
44
44
45
43
45
42
46
41
46
4
46
39
46
38
46
37
47
36
47
35
47
35
47
34
47
33
47
32
47
31
47
31
47
3
47
29
47
28
46
27
46
27
46
26
46
25
46
24
45
24
45
23
45
22
45
22
45
21
44
2
44
2
44
19
44
19
44
18
44
17
44
17
43
16
44
15
44
15
44
14
44
14
44
14
44
13
44
12
44
12
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
1
44
1
45
09
44
09
44
09
45
08
45
08
45
08
45
07
45
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
06
43
06
43
06
42
06
42
06
41
06
41
06
4
06
4
05
39
05
38
06
38
06
37
06
36
05
36
05
35
06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
Jul-01 Jul-01
Jul-02 Jul-02
Jul-03 Jul-03
Jul-04 Jul-04
Jul-05 Jul-05
Jul-06 Jul-06
Jul-07 Jul-07
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Aug-01 Aug-01
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Aug-03 Aug-03
Aug-04 Aug-04
Aug-05 Aug-05
Aug-06 Aug-06
Aug-07 Aug-07
Aug-08 Aug-08
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Aug-21 Aug-21
Aug-22 Aug-22
Aug-23 Aug-23
Aug-24 Aug-24
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Aug-28 Aug-28
Aug-29 Aug-29
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Aug-31 Aug-31
Sep-01 Sep-01
Sep-02 Sep-02
Sep-03 Sep-03
Sep-04 Sep-04
Sep-05 Sep-05
Sep-06 Sep-06
Sep-07 Sep-07
Sep-08 Sep-08
Sep-09 Sep-09
Sep-10 Sep-10
Sep-11 Sep-11
Sep-12 Sep-12
Sep-13 Sep-13
Sep-14 Sep-14
Sep-15 Sep-15
Sep-16 Sep-16
Sep-17 Sep-17
Sep-18 Sep-18
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Page 3: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

World Wheat Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 7584 -14 7478 -106United States 474 -- 496 22

Foreign 7110 -14 6982 -128Argentina 180 -- 195 15Canada 300 -- 325 25Australia 215 -- 240 25European Union 1516 1504 -12Turkey 210 -- 200 -10Russia 850 -- 720 -130Ukraine 270 -- 265 -05Kazakhstan 148 -- 140 -08China 1298 -- 1290 -08India 985 -- 950 -35Northwest Africa 106 -01 124 19

-- No change Rounds to zero

May 10 2018

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

In sw Russia temperatures did not get low enough to threaten exposed winter wheat despite a shallow and

fleeting snow cover

Fall SpringWinter

Planting HeadFlower

The consistent theme across western FSUAbundant subsurface moisture supplies are in

sharp contrast with rapidly drying topsoils

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter Wheat

Very warm weather over the past 7 days has accelerated wheat development considerably

Source Decadal WMO station data

Southern

North Caucasus

Central

Volga

Ukraine

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Apr 2

1

Apr 2

8

May

5

May

12

May

19

May

26

June

2

June

9

June

16

June

23

100

0 he

ctar

esRussia Spring Wheat Sowing Progress

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sources Rosstat (2017) MinAg forecast (2018)

Planting is nearly 50 complete in the Central District (a minor spring-wheat area) but is just underway in the Volga Ural and

Siberian Districts

May 10 2018

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Tons

per

hec

tare

Russia Wheat Estimated Yield

Winter wheat Spring wheat

Sources Rosstat (1998-2017) FAS forecast (2018)

bull The forecast winter-wheat yield is 6 above average and 10 below last yearrsquos record

bull The forecast spring-wheat yield matches the 5-year average and is 16 below last yearrsquos record

May 10 2018

Source USDA (2007-2017) FAS forecasts (2018)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9019

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

18

Yiel

d (T

Ha)

Area

(MH

a) a

nd P

rodu

ctio

n (M

MT)

Russia Wheat Estimated Area Yield and Production

Harvested area Production Yield

Production is forecast at 720 mmt (down 135 mmt from last year) and yield at 277 tha (down 12 from last year)

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Map data courtesy of SAGEUniv of Wisconsin and based on FAOUSDA May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Winter Wheat

An historically dry autumn in key western production areas delayed wheat planting and left

soils devoid of moisture for establishment Conditions were favorable in the east

Fall SpringWinter

Planting HeadFlower

May 10 2018

The start of the 2017-18 cool wet season was

historically dry in northern Morocco

Conversely since then it has been the wettest

over the past 30 years In northern Morocco

Selected Region(Primary Wheat)

Morocco Satellite-Derived Vegetation Index

MODIS Aqua NDVI 8-Day Seasonal ChartSPAM 2005 masked for wheat

Showing significantly above-average peak greenness and later-than-normal development

Current Crop

May 10 2018

The VHI supports much-above-average yields across the entire region though inland winter dryness in Tunisia trimmed prospects locally

Winter Wheat

May 10 2018

Northwest Africa Wheat Yield and Production

Northwest Africa Wheat Area

Source USDA PSD Data

Source USDA PSD Data

May 10 2018

World Wheat Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2559 13 2705 146Production 7584 -14 7478 -106Total Supply 10143 -01 10182 39

Feed use 1454 -04 1456 02Total use 7438 07 7539 101

Trade 1821 1884 64Ending Stocks 2705 -08 2643 -61

Rounds to zero

US Wheat Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 460 -- 473 13Harvested area (million acres) 376 -- 389 14Yield (bushels per acre) 463 -- 468 05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 1181 -- 1070 -110Production 1741 -- 1821 81Imports 155 -- 135 -20Total supply 3076 -- 3027 -50

Food use 963 8 965 2Seed 63 1 62 -1Feed and residual 70 -- 120 50Domestic use 1096 9 1147 51

Exports 910 -15 925 15Total use 2006 -6 2072 66

Ending stocks 1070 6 955 -116----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 533 05 461 -73

Average market price 470 005 450550 030-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Rice Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 4882 08 4895 13United States 57 -- 65 08

Foreign 4826 08 4830 05Argentina 08 -- 08 01Brazil 81 -- 80 -01Egypt 43 -- 33 -10Bangladesh 327 -- 347 21Burma 132 -- 134 02Cambodia 54 04 55 01China 1460 -- 1445 -15India 1100 -- 1090 -10Indonesia 370 -- 373 03Japan 76 76 Sri Lanka 25 -- 26 01Pakistan 75 -- 74 -01Philippines 123 -- 124 Thailand 204 -- 210 06Vietnam 286 01 287 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

World Rice Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74

Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
05
29
05
28
05
28
05
27
05
27
05
26
05
25
05
25
05
24
05
24
05
24
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
22
05
22
05
22
05
22
05
22
05
22
05
22
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
23
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23
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05
24
05
24
05
24
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25
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25
06
25
06
25
06
26
07
26
07
27
08
27
08
27
08
28
08
28
09
28
09
29
09
29
1
29
1
3
11
3
11
3
12
31
12
31
13
32
13
32
13
33
14
33
14
34
15
34
16
35
16
36
17
37
17
37
18
38
18
39
19
39
2
4
2
41
21
42
22
43
22
44
22
45
23
46
24
47
24
48
25
48
26
49
26
5
27
51
28
52
28
53
29
53
29
54
3
55
31
56
31
56
32
57
33
57
33
58
34
58
35
58
36
59
36
59
37
59
38
59
38
59
39
59
4
59
41
59
41
58
42
58
43
58
44
57
45
57
45
56
46
56
47
55
48
55
48
54
49
53
5
52
51
52
52
51
52
5
53
49
54
49
55
48
55
47
56
47
57
46
58
46
59
45
59
45
6
44
61
44
61
44
62
44
62
43
63
43
64
43
64
43
65
43
65
44
66
44
66
44
66
45
67
45
68
46
68
46
68
47
68
48
69
48
69
49
69
5
69
51
7
52
7
52
7
53
7
54
7
55
7
56
7
56
7
57
71
57
71
58
7
59
7
6
71
6
71
6
7
61
71
61
71
61
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
61
71
61
71
61
72
61
72
6
72
6
72
6
72
6
72
59
73
59
72
58
73
58
73
58
73
57
74
57
74
56
74
56
75
56
75
55
75
55
75
55
76
55
76
54
76
54
76
54
77
54
77
54
77
54
78
54
78
55
78
55
79
55
79
55
79
55
8
55
8
56
8
56
8
57
81
57
81
57
82
58
82
58
82
59
82
59
82
59
82
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
61
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
59
82
59
82
58
82
58
82
57
82
56
82
55
81
55
81
54
8
53
8
52
79
51
79
5
78
49
78
49
77
48
77
47
76
46
76
45
75
45
75
44
74
43
73
42
73
42
72
41
71
41
7
4
7
4
68
4
68
39
67
39
66
39
65
39
64
38
63
39
62
39
61
39
61
39
6
39
58
39
58
4
57
4
56
4
55
4
54
41
53
41
52
42
51
42
5
42
49
43
48
43
47
44
46
44
45
44
44
45
43
45
42
46
41
46
4
46
39
46
38
46
37
47
36
47
35
47
35
47
34
47
33
47
32
47
31
47
31
47
3
47
29
47
28
46
27
46
27
46
26
46
25
46
24
45
24
45
23
45
22
45
22
45
21
44
2
44
2
44
19
44
19
44
18
44
17
44
17
43
16
44
15
44
15
44
14
44
14
44
14
44
13
44
12
44
12
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
1
44
1
45
09
44
09
44
09
45
08
45
08
45
08
45
07
45
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
06
43
06
43
06
42
06
42
06
41
06
41
06
4
06
4
05
39
05
38
06
38
06
37
06
36
05
36
05
35
06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
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Page 4: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

May 10 2018

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

In sw Russia temperatures did not get low enough to threaten exposed winter wheat despite a shallow and

fleeting snow cover

Fall SpringWinter

Planting HeadFlower

The consistent theme across western FSUAbundant subsurface moisture supplies are in

sharp contrast with rapidly drying topsoils

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter Wheat

Very warm weather over the past 7 days has accelerated wheat development considerably

Source Decadal WMO station data

Southern

North Caucasus

Central

Volga

Ukraine

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Apr 2

1

Apr 2

8

May

5

May

12

May

19

May

26

June

2

June

9

June

16

June

23

100

0 he

ctar

esRussia Spring Wheat Sowing Progress

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sources Rosstat (2017) MinAg forecast (2018)

Planting is nearly 50 complete in the Central District (a minor spring-wheat area) but is just underway in the Volga Ural and

Siberian Districts

May 10 2018

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Tons

per

hec

tare

Russia Wheat Estimated Yield

Winter wheat Spring wheat

Sources Rosstat (1998-2017) FAS forecast (2018)

bull The forecast winter-wheat yield is 6 above average and 10 below last yearrsquos record

bull The forecast spring-wheat yield matches the 5-year average and is 16 below last yearrsquos record

May 10 2018

Source USDA (2007-2017) FAS forecasts (2018)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9019

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

18

Yiel

d (T

Ha)

Area

(MH

a) a

nd P

rodu

ctio

n (M

MT)

Russia Wheat Estimated Area Yield and Production

Harvested area Production Yield

Production is forecast at 720 mmt (down 135 mmt from last year) and yield at 277 tha (down 12 from last year)

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Map data courtesy of SAGEUniv of Wisconsin and based on FAOUSDA May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Winter Wheat

An historically dry autumn in key western production areas delayed wheat planting and left

soils devoid of moisture for establishment Conditions were favorable in the east

Fall SpringWinter

Planting HeadFlower

May 10 2018

The start of the 2017-18 cool wet season was

historically dry in northern Morocco

Conversely since then it has been the wettest

over the past 30 years In northern Morocco

Selected Region(Primary Wheat)

Morocco Satellite-Derived Vegetation Index

MODIS Aqua NDVI 8-Day Seasonal ChartSPAM 2005 masked for wheat

Showing significantly above-average peak greenness and later-than-normal development

Current Crop

May 10 2018

The VHI supports much-above-average yields across the entire region though inland winter dryness in Tunisia trimmed prospects locally

Winter Wheat

May 10 2018

Northwest Africa Wheat Yield and Production

Northwest Africa Wheat Area

Source USDA PSD Data

Source USDA PSD Data

May 10 2018

World Wheat Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2559 13 2705 146Production 7584 -14 7478 -106Total Supply 10143 -01 10182 39

Feed use 1454 -04 1456 02Total use 7438 07 7539 101

Trade 1821 1884 64Ending Stocks 2705 -08 2643 -61

Rounds to zero

US Wheat Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 460 -- 473 13Harvested area (million acres) 376 -- 389 14Yield (bushels per acre) 463 -- 468 05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 1181 -- 1070 -110Production 1741 -- 1821 81Imports 155 -- 135 -20Total supply 3076 -- 3027 -50

Food use 963 8 965 2Seed 63 1 62 -1Feed and residual 70 -- 120 50Domestic use 1096 9 1147 51

Exports 910 -15 925 15Total use 2006 -6 2072 66

Ending stocks 1070 6 955 -116----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 533 05 461 -73

Average market price 470 005 450550 030-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Rice Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 4882 08 4895 13United States 57 -- 65 08

Foreign 4826 08 4830 05Argentina 08 -- 08 01Brazil 81 -- 80 -01Egypt 43 -- 33 -10Bangladesh 327 -- 347 21Burma 132 -- 134 02Cambodia 54 04 55 01China 1460 -- 1445 -15India 1100 -- 1090 -10Indonesia 370 -- 373 03Japan 76 76 Sri Lanka 25 -- 26 01Pakistan 75 -- 74 -01Philippines 123 -- 124 Thailand 204 -- 210 06Vietnam 286 01 287 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

World Rice Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74

Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
05
29
05
28
05
28
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1
29
1
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3
12
31
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32
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33
14
33
14
34
15
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4
2
41
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42
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22
45
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24
47
24
48
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48
26
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26
5
27
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29
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3
55
31
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4
59
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53
5
52
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52
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51
52
5
53
49
54
49
55
48
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57
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59
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6
44
61
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69
5
69
51
7
52
7
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7
53
7
54
7
55
7
56
7
56
7
57
71
57
71
58
7
59
7
6
71
6
71
6
7
61
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6
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6
72
59
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55
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55
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55
8
55
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8
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81
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82
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8
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8
52
79
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79
5
78
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41
7
4
7
4
68
4
68
39
67
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64
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63
39
62
39
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61
39
6
39
58
39
58
4
57
4
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4
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4
54
41
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41
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42
5
42
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41
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4
46
39
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47
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3
47
29
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24
45
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2
44
2
44
19
44
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44
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44
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11
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11
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11
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1
44
1
45
09
44
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44
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45
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41
06
4
06
4
05
39
05
38
06
38
06
37
06
36
05
36
05
35
06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
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  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
Jul-01 Jul-01
Jul-02 Jul-02
Jul-03 Jul-03
Jul-04 Jul-04
Jul-05 Jul-05
Jul-06 Jul-06
Jul-07 Jul-07
Jul-08 Jul-08
Jul-09 Jul-09
Jul-10 Jul-10
Jul-11 Jul-11
Jul-12 Jul-12
Jul-13 Jul-13
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Jul-18 Jul-18
Jul-19 Jul-19
Jul-20 Jul-20
Jul-21 Jul-21
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Jul-24 Jul-24
Jul-25 Jul-25
Jul-26 Jul-26
Jul-27 Jul-27
Jul-28 Jul-28
Jul-29 Jul-29
Jul-30 Jul-30
Jul-31 Jul-31
Aug-01 Aug-01
Aug-02 Aug-02
Aug-03 Aug-03
Aug-04 Aug-04
Aug-05 Aug-05
Aug-06 Aug-06
Aug-07 Aug-07
Aug-08 Aug-08
Aug-09 Aug-09
Aug-10 Aug-10
Aug-11 Aug-11
Aug-12 Aug-12
Aug-13 Aug-13
Aug-14 Aug-14
Aug-15 Aug-15
Aug-16 Aug-16
Aug-17 Aug-17
Aug-18 Aug-18
Aug-19 Aug-19
Aug-20 Aug-20
Aug-21 Aug-21
Aug-22 Aug-22
Aug-23 Aug-23
Aug-24 Aug-24
Aug-25 Aug-25
Aug-26 Aug-26
Aug-27 Aug-27
Aug-28 Aug-28
Aug-29 Aug-29
Aug-30 Aug-30
Aug-31 Aug-31
Sep-01 Sep-01
Sep-02 Sep-02
Sep-03 Sep-03
Sep-04 Sep-04
Sep-05 Sep-05
Sep-06 Sep-06
Sep-07 Sep-07
Sep-08 Sep-08
Sep-09 Sep-09
Sep-10 Sep-10
Sep-11 Sep-11
Sep-12 Sep-12
Sep-13 Sep-13
Sep-14 Sep-14
Sep-15 Sep-15
Sep-16 Sep-16
Sep-17 Sep-17
Sep-18 Sep-18
Sep-19 Sep-19
Sep-20 Sep-20
Sep-21 Sep-21
Sep-22 Sep-22
Sep-23 Sep-23
Sep-24 Sep-24
Sep-25 Sep-25
Sep-26 Sep-26
Sep-27 Sep-27
Sep-28 Sep-28
Sep-29 Sep-29
Sep-30 Sep-30
Oct-01 Oct-01
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Oct-03 Oct-03
Oct-04 Oct-04
Oct-05 Oct-05
Oct-06 Oct-06
Oct-07 Oct-07
Oct-08 Oct-08
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Oct-11 Oct-11
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Oct-31 Oct-31
Nov-01 Nov-01
Nov-02 Nov-02
Nov-03 Nov-03
Nov-04 Nov-04
Nov-05 Nov-05
Nov-06 Nov-06
Nov-07 Nov-07
Nov-08 Nov-08
Nov-09 Nov-09
Nov-10 Nov-10
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Nov-12 Nov-12
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Nov-14 Nov-14
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Nov-18 Nov-18
Nov-19 Nov-19
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Nov-24 Nov-24
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Page 5: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Fall SpringWinter

Planting HeadFlower

The consistent theme across western FSUAbundant subsurface moisture supplies are in

sharp contrast with rapidly drying topsoils

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter Wheat

Very warm weather over the past 7 days has accelerated wheat development considerably

Source Decadal WMO station data

Southern

North Caucasus

Central

Volga

Ukraine

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Apr 2

1

Apr 2

8

May

5

May

12

May

19

May

26

June

2

June

9

June

16

June

23

100

0 he

ctar

esRussia Spring Wheat Sowing Progress

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sources Rosstat (2017) MinAg forecast (2018)

Planting is nearly 50 complete in the Central District (a minor spring-wheat area) but is just underway in the Volga Ural and

Siberian Districts

May 10 2018

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Tons

per

hec

tare

Russia Wheat Estimated Yield

Winter wheat Spring wheat

Sources Rosstat (1998-2017) FAS forecast (2018)

bull The forecast winter-wheat yield is 6 above average and 10 below last yearrsquos record

bull The forecast spring-wheat yield matches the 5-year average and is 16 below last yearrsquos record

May 10 2018

Source USDA (2007-2017) FAS forecasts (2018)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9019

9219

9319

9419

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9619

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9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

18

Yiel

d (T

Ha)

Area

(MH

a) a

nd P

rodu

ctio

n (M

MT)

Russia Wheat Estimated Area Yield and Production

Harvested area Production Yield

Production is forecast at 720 mmt (down 135 mmt from last year) and yield at 277 tha (down 12 from last year)

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Map data courtesy of SAGEUniv of Wisconsin and based on FAOUSDA May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Winter Wheat

An historically dry autumn in key western production areas delayed wheat planting and left

soils devoid of moisture for establishment Conditions were favorable in the east

Fall SpringWinter

Planting HeadFlower

May 10 2018

The start of the 2017-18 cool wet season was

historically dry in northern Morocco

Conversely since then it has been the wettest

over the past 30 years In northern Morocco

Selected Region(Primary Wheat)

Morocco Satellite-Derived Vegetation Index

MODIS Aqua NDVI 8-Day Seasonal ChartSPAM 2005 masked for wheat

Showing significantly above-average peak greenness and later-than-normal development

Current Crop

May 10 2018

The VHI supports much-above-average yields across the entire region though inland winter dryness in Tunisia trimmed prospects locally

Winter Wheat

May 10 2018

Northwest Africa Wheat Yield and Production

Northwest Africa Wheat Area

Source USDA PSD Data

Source USDA PSD Data

May 10 2018

World Wheat Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2559 13 2705 146Production 7584 -14 7478 -106Total Supply 10143 -01 10182 39

Feed use 1454 -04 1456 02Total use 7438 07 7539 101

Trade 1821 1884 64Ending Stocks 2705 -08 2643 -61

Rounds to zero

US Wheat Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 460 -- 473 13Harvested area (million acres) 376 -- 389 14Yield (bushels per acre) 463 -- 468 05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 1181 -- 1070 -110Production 1741 -- 1821 81Imports 155 -- 135 -20Total supply 3076 -- 3027 -50

Food use 963 8 965 2Seed 63 1 62 -1Feed and residual 70 -- 120 50Domestic use 1096 9 1147 51

Exports 910 -15 925 15Total use 2006 -6 2072 66

Ending stocks 1070 6 955 -116----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 533 05 461 -73

Average market price 470 005 450550 030-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Rice Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 4882 08 4895 13United States 57 -- 65 08

Foreign 4826 08 4830 05Argentina 08 -- 08 01Brazil 81 -- 80 -01Egypt 43 -- 33 -10Bangladesh 327 -- 347 21Burma 132 -- 134 02Cambodia 54 04 55 01China 1460 -- 1445 -15India 1100 -- 1090 -10Indonesia 370 -- 373 03Japan 76 76 Sri Lanka 25 -- 26 01Pakistan 75 -- 74 -01Philippines 123 -- 124 Thailand 204 -- 210 06Vietnam 286 01 287 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

World Rice Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74

Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
05
29
05
28
05
28
05
27
05
27
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25
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26
07
27
08
27
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27
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28
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28
09
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09
29
1
29
1
3
11
3
11
3
12
31
12
31
13
32
13
32
13
33
14
33
14
34
15
34
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18
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2
4
2
41
21
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24
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24
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26
5
27
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29
54
3
55
31
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32
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39
59
4
59
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5
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52
5
53
49
54
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59
45
6
44
61
44
61
44
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64
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44
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44
66
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46
68
46
68
47
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48
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48
69
49
69
5
69
51
7
52
7
52
7
53
7
54
7
55
7
56
7
56
7
57
71
57
71
58
7
59
7
6
71
6
71
6
7
61
71
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71
61
71
62
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62
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62
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61
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6
72
6
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6
72
6
72
59
73
59
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73
58
73
57
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57
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56
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56
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55
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55
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54
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54
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54
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54
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55
78
55
79
55
79
55
79
55
8
55
8
56
8
56
8
57
81
57
81
57
82
58
82
58
82
59
82
59
82
59
82
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
61
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
59
82
59
82
58
82
58
82
57
82
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82
55
81
55
81
54
8
53
8
52
79
51
79
5
78
49
78
49
77
48
77
47
76
46
76
45
75
45
75
44
74
43
73
42
73
42
72
41
71
41
7
4
7
4
68
4
68
39
67
39
66
39
65
39
64
38
63
39
62
39
61
39
61
39
6
39
58
39
58
4
57
4
56
4
55
4
54
41
53
41
52
42
51
42
5
42
49
43
48
43
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46
44
45
44
44
45
43
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41
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4
46
39
46
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47
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47
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47
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47
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47
31
47
31
47
3
47
29
47
28
46
27
46
27
46
26
46
25
46
24
45
24
45
23
45
22
45
22
45
21
44
2
44
2
44
19
44
19
44
18
44
17
44
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43
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44
15
44
15
44
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44
14
44
14
44
13
44
12
44
12
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
1
44
1
45
09
44
09
44
09
45
08
45
08
45
08
45
07
45
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
06
43
06
43
06
42
06
42
06
41
06
41
06
4
06
4
05
39
05
38
06
38
06
37
06
36
05
36
05
35
06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
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Page 6: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

May 10 2018

Winter Wheat

Very warm weather over the past 7 days has accelerated wheat development considerably

Source Decadal WMO station data

Southern

North Caucasus

Central

Volga

Ukraine

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Apr 2

1

Apr 2

8

May

5

May

12

May

19

May

26

June

2

June

9

June

16

June

23

100

0 he

ctar

esRussia Spring Wheat Sowing Progress

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sources Rosstat (2017) MinAg forecast (2018)

Planting is nearly 50 complete in the Central District (a minor spring-wheat area) but is just underway in the Volga Ural and

Siberian Districts

May 10 2018

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Tons

per

hec

tare

Russia Wheat Estimated Yield

Winter wheat Spring wheat

Sources Rosstat (1998-2017) FAS forecast (2018)

bull The forecast winter-wheat yield is 6 above average and 10 below last yearrsquos record

bull The forecast spring-wheat yield matches the 5-year average and is 16 below last yearrsquos record

May 10 2018

Source USDA (2007-2017) FAS forecasts (2018)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9019

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

18

Yiel

d (T

Ha)

Area

(MH

a) a

nd P

rodu

ctio

n (M

MT)

Russia Wheat Estimated Area Yield and Production

Harvested area Production Yield

Production is forecast at 720 mmt (down 135 mmt from last year) and yield at 277 tha (down 12 from last year)

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Map data courtesy of SAGEUniv of Wisconsin and based on FAOUSDA May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Winter Wheat

An historically dry autumn in key western production areas delayed wheat planting and left

soils devoid of moisture for establishment Conditions were favorable in the east

Fall SpringWinter

Planting HeadFlower

May 10 2018

The start of the 2017-18 cool wet season was

historically dry in northern Morocco

Conversely since then it has been the wettest

over the past 30 years In northern Morocco

Selected Region(Primary Wheat)

Morocco Satellite-Derived Vegetation Index

MODIS Aqua NDVI 8-Day Seasonal ChartSPAM 2005 masked for wheat

Showing significantly above-average peak greenness and later-than-normal development

Current Crop

May 10 2018

The VHI supports much-above-average yields across the entire region though inland winter dryness in Tunisia trimmed prospects locally

Winter Wheat

May 10 2018

Northwest Africa Wheat Yield and Production

Northwest Africa Wheat Area

Source USDA PSD Data

Source USDA PSD Data

May 10 2018

World Wheat Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2559 13 2705 146Production 7584 -14 7478 -106Total Supply 10143 -01 10182 39

Feed use 1454 -04 1456 02Total use 7438 07 7539 101

Trade 1821 1884 64Ending Stocks 2705 -08 2643 -61

Rounds to zero

US Wheat Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 460 -- 473 13Harvested area (million acres) 376 -- 389 14Yield (bushels per acre) 463 -- 468 05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 1181 -- 1070 -110Production 1741 -- 1821 81Imports 155 -- 135 -20Total supply 3076 -- 3027 -50

Food use 963 8 965 2Seed 63 1 62 -1Feed and residual 70 -- 120 50Domestic use 1096 9 1147 51

Exports 910 -15 925 15Total use 2006 -6 2072 66

Ending stocks 1070 6 955 -116----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 533 05 461 -73

Average market price 470 005 450550 030-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Rice Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 4882 08 4895 13United States 57 -- 65 08

Foreign 4826 08 4830 05Argentina 08 -- 08 01Brazil 81 -- 80 -01Egypt 43 -- 33 -10Bangladesh 327 -- 347 21Burma 132 -- 134 02Cambodia 54 04 55 01China 1460 -- 1445 -15India 1100 -- 1090 -10Indonesia 370 -- 373 03Japan 76 76 Sri Lanka 25 -- 26 01Pakistan 75 -- 74 -01Philippines 123 -- 124 Thailand 204 -- 210 06Vietnam 286 01 287 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

World Rice Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74

Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
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29
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43
16
44
15
44
15
44
14
44
14
44
14
44
13
44
12
44
12
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
1
44
1
45
09
44
09
44
09
45
08
45
08
45
08
45
07
45
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
06
43
06
43
06
42
06
42
06
41
06
41
06
4
06
4
05
39
05
38
06
38
06
37
06
36
05
36
05
35
06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
Jul-01 Jul-01
Jul-02 Jul-02
Jul-03 Jul-03
Jul-04 Jul-04
Jul-05 Jul-05
Jul-06 Jul-06
Jul-07 Jul-07
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Jul-29 Jul-29
Jul-30 Jul-30
Jul-31 Jul-31
Aug-01 Aug-01
Aug-02 Aug-02
Aug-03 Aug-03
Aug-04 Aug-04
Aug-05 Aug-05
Aug-06 Aug-06
Aug-07 Aug-07
Aug-08 Aug-08
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Page 7: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Source Decadal WMO station data

Southern

North Caucasus

Central

Volga

Ukraine

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Apr 2

1

Apr 2

8

May

5

May

12

May

19

May

26

June

2

June

9

June

16

June

23

100

0 he

ctar

esRussia Spring Wheat Sowing Progress

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sources Rosstat (2017) MinAg forecast (2018)

Planting is nearly 50 complete in the Central District (a minor spring-wheat area) but is just underway in the Volga Ural and

Siberian Districts

May 10 2018

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Tons

per

hec

tare

Russia Wheat Estimated Yield

Winter wheat Spring wheat

Sources Rosstat (1998-2017) FAS forecast (2018)

bull The forecast winter-wheat yield is 6 above average and 10 below last yearrsquos record

bull The forecast spring-wheat yield matches the 5-year average and is 16 below last yearrsquos record

May 10 2018

Source USDA (2007-2017) FAS forecasts (2018)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9019

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

18

Yiel

d (T

Ha)

Area

(MH

a) a

nd P

rodu

ctio

n (M

MT)

Russia Wheat Estimated Area Yield and Production

Harvested area Production Yield

Production is forecast at 720 mmt (down 135 mmt from last year) and yield at 277 tha (down 12 from last year)

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Map data courtesy of SAGEUniv of Wisconsin and based on FAOUSDA May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Winter Wheat

An historically dry autumn in key western production areas delayed wheat planting and left

soils devoid of moisture for establishment Conditions were favorable in the east

Fall SpringWinter

Planting HeadFlower

May 10 2018

The start of the 2017-18 cool wet season was

historically dry in northern Morocco

Conversely since then it has been the wettest

over the past 30 years In northern Morocco

Selected Region(Primary Wheat)

Morocco Satellite-Derived Vegetation Index

MODIS Aqua NDVI 8-Day Seasonal ChartSPAM 2005 masked for wheat

Showing significantly above-average peak greenness and later-than-normal development

Current Crop

May 10 2018

The VHI supports much-above-average yields across the entire region though inland winter dryness in Tunisia trimmed prospects locally

Winter Wheat

May 10 2018

Northwest Africa Wheat Yield and Production

Northwest Africa Wheat Area

Source USDA PSD Data

Source USDA PSD Data

May 10 2018

World Wheat Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2559 13 2705 146Production 7584 -14 7478 -106Total Supply 10143 -01 10182 39

Feed use 1454 -04 1456 02Total use 7438 07 7539 101

Trade 1821 1884 64Ending Stocks 2705 -08 2643 -61

Rounds to zero

US Wheat Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 460 -- 473 13Harvested area (million acres) 376 -- 389 14Yield (bushels per acre) 463 -- 468 05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 1181 -- 1070 -110Production 1741 -- 1821 81Imports 155 -- 135 -20Total supply 3076 -- 3027 -50

Food use 963 8 965 2Seed 63 1 62 -1Feed and residual 70 -- 120 50Domestic use 1096 9 1147 51

Exports 910 -15 925 15Total use 2006 -6 2072 66

Ending stocks 1070 6 955 -116----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 533 05 461 -73

Average market price 470 005 450550 030-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Rice Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 4882 08 4895 13United States 57 -- 65 08

Foreign 4826 08 4830 05Argentina 08 -- 08 01Brazil 81 -- 80 -01Egypt 43 -- 33 -10Bangladesh 327 -- 347 21Burma 132 -- 134 02Cambodia 54 04 55 01China 1460 -- 1445 -15India 1100 -- 1090 -10Indonesia 370 -- 373 03Japan 76 76 Sri Lanka 25 -- 26 01Pakistan 75 -- 74 -01Philippines 123 -- 124 Thailand 204 -- 210 06Vietnam 286 01 287 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

World Rice Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74

Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
05
29
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28
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1
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1
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11
3
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12
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41
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5
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3
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6
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5
69
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7
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71
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6
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8
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8
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81
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6
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59
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79
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5
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4
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39
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06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
Jul-01 Jul-01
Jul-02 Jul-02
Jul-03 Jul-03
Jul-04 Jul-04
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Aug-01 Aug-01
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Sep-01 Sep-01
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Sep-03 Sep-03
Sep-04 Sep-04
Sep-05 Sep-05
Sep-06 Sep-06
Sep-07 Sep-07
Sep-08 Sep-08
Sep-09 Sep-09
Sep-10 Sep-10
Sep-11 Sep-11
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Sep-14 Sep-14
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Oct-01 Oct-01
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Nov-01 Nov-01
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Page 8: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

May 10 2018

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26

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9

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16

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23

100

0 he

ctar

esRussia Spring Wheat Sowing Progress

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sources Rosstat (2017) MinAg forecast (2018)

Planting is nearly 50 complete in the Central District (a minor spring-wheat area) but is just underway in the Volga Ural and

Siberian Districts

May 10 2018

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Tons

per

hec

tare

Russia Wheat Estimated Yield

Winter wheat Spring wheat

Sources Rosstat (1998-2017) FAS forecast (2018)

bull The forecast winter-wheat yield is 6 above average and 10 below last yearrsquos record

bull The forecast spring-wheat yield matches the 5-year average and is 16 below last yearrsquos record

May 10 2018

Source USDA (2007-2017) FAS forecasts (2018)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9019

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

18

Yiel

d (T

Ha)

Area

(MH

a) a

nd P

rodu

ctio

n (M

MT)

Russia Wheat Estimated Area Yield and Production

Harvested area Production Yield

Production is forecast at 720 mmt (down 135 mmt from last year) and yield at 277 tha (down 12 from last year)

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Map data courtesy of SAGEUniv of Wisconsin and based on FAOUSDA May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Winter Wheat

An historically dry autumn in key western production areas delayed wheat planting and left

soils devoid of moisture for establishment Conditions were favorable in the east

Fall SpringWinter

Planting HeadFlower

May 10 2018

The start of the 2017-18 cool wet season was

historically dry in northern Morocco

Conversely since then it has been the wettest

over the past 30 years In northern Morocco

Selected Region(Primary Wheat)

Morocco Satellite-Derived Vegetation Index

MODIS Aqua NDVI 8-Day Seasonal ChartSPAM 2005 masked for wheat

Showing significantly above-average peak greenness and later-than-normal development

Current Crop

May 10 2018

The VHI supports much-above-average yields across the entire region though inland winter dryness in Tunisia trimmed prospects locally

Winter Wheat

May 10 2018

Northwest Africa Wheat Yield and Production

Northwest Africa Wheat Area

Source USDA PSD Data

Source USDA PSD Data

May 10 2018

World Wheat Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2559 13 2705 146Production 7584 -14 7478 -106Total Supply 10143 -01 10182 39

Feed use 1454 -04 1456 02Total use 7438 07 7539 101

Trade 1821 1884 64Ending Stocks 2705 -08 2643 -61

Rounds to zero

US Wheat Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 460 -- 473 13Harvested area (million acres) 376 -- 389 14Yield (bushels per acre) 463 -- 468 05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 1181 -- 1070 -110Production 1741 -- 1821 81Imports 155 -- 135 -20Total supply 3076 -- 3027 -50

Food use 963 8 965 2Seed 63 1 62 -1Feed and residual 70 -- 120 50Domestic use 1096 9 1147 51

Exports 910 -15 925 15Total use 2006 -6 2072 66

Ending stocks 1070 6 955 -116----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 533 05 461 -73

Average market price 470 005 450550 030-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Rice Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 4882 08 4895 13United States 57 -- 65 08

Foreign 4826 08 4830 05Argentina 08 -- 08 01Brazil 81 -- 80 -01Egypt 43 -- 33 -10Bangladesh 327 -- 347 21Burma 132 -- 134 02Cambodia 54 04 55 01China 1460 -- 1445 -15India 1100 -- 1090 -10Indonesia 370 -- 373 03Japan 76 76 Sri Lanka 25 -- 26 01Pakistan 75 -- 74 -01Philippines 123 -- 124 Thailand 204 -- 210 06Vietnam 286 01 287 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

World Rice Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74

Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
05
29
05
28
05
28
05
27
05
27
05
26
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05
25
05
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05
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06
24
05
24
05
24
05
24
06
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06
25
06
25
06
25
06
26
07
26
07
27
08
27
08
27
08
28
08
28
09
28
09
29
09
29
1
29
1
3
11
3
11
3
12
31
12
31
13
32
13
32
13
33
14
33
14
34
15
34
16
35
16
36
17
37
17
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18
38
18
39
19
39
2
4
2
41
21
42
22
43
22
44
22
45
23
46
24
47
24
48
25
48
26
49
26
5
27
51
28
52
28
53
29
53
29
54
3
55
31
56
31
56
32
57
33
57
33
58
34
58
35
58
36
59
36
59
37
59
38
59
38
59
39
59
4
59
41
59
41
58
42
58
43
58
44
57
45
57
45
56
46
56
47
55
48
55
48
54
49
53
5
52
51
52
52
51
52
5
53
49
54
49
55
48
55
47
56
47
57
46
58
46
59
45
59
45
6
44
61
44
61
44
62
44
62
43
63
43
64
43
64
43
65
43
65
44
66
44
66
44
66
45
67
45
68
46
68
46
68
47
68
48
69
48
69
49
69
5
69
51
7
52
7
52
7
53
7
54
7
55
7
56
7
56
7
57
71
57
71
58
7
59
7
6
71
6
71
6
7
61
71
61
71
61
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
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71
61
71
61
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61
72
6
72
6
72
6
72
6
72
59
73
59
72
58
73
58
73
58
73
57
74
57
74
56
74
56
75
56
75
55
75
55
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55
76
55
76
54
76
54
76
54
77
54
77
54
77
54
78
54
78
55
78
55
79
55
79
55
79
55
8
55
8
56
8
56
8
57
81
57
81
57
82
58
82
58
82
59
82
59
82
59
82
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
61
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
59
82
59
82
58
82
58
82
57
82
56
82
55
81
55
81
54
8
53
8
52
79
51
79
5
78
49
78
49
77
48
77
47
76
46
76
45
75
45
75
44
74
43
73
42
73
42
72
41
71
41
7
4
7
4
68
4
68
39
67
39
66
39
65
39
64
38
63
39
62
39
61
39
61
39
6
39
58
39
58
4
57
4
56
4
55
4
54
41
53
41
52
42
51
42
5
42
49
43
48
43
47
44
46
44
45
44
44
45
43
45
42
46
41
46
4
46
39
46
38
46
37
47
36
47
35
47
35
47
34
47
33
47
32
47
31
47
31
47
3
47
29
47
28
46
27
46
27
46
26
46
25
46
24
45
24
45
23
45
22
45
22
45
21
44
2
44
2
44
19
44
19
44
18
44
17
44
17
43
16
44
15
44
15
44
14
44
14
44
14
44
13
44
12
44
12
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
1
44
1
45
09
44
09
44
09
45
08
45
08
45
08
45
07
45
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
06
43
06
43
06
42
06
42
06
41
06
41
06
4
06
4
05
39
05
38
06
38
06
37
06
36
05
36
05
35
06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
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  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
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  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
Jul-01 Jul-01
Jul-02 Jul-02
Jul-03 Jul-03
Jul-04 Jul-04
Jul-05 Jul-05
Jul-06 Jul-06
Jul-07 Jul-07
Jul-08 Jul-08
Jul-09 Jul-09
Jul-10 Jul-10
Jul-11 Jul-11
Jul-12 Jul-12
Jul-13 Jul-13
Jul-14 Jul-14
Jul-15 Jul-15
Jul-16 Jul-16
Jul-17 Jul-17
Jul-18 Jul-18
Jul-19 Jul-19
Jul-20 Jul-20
Jul-21 Jul-21
Jul-22 Jul-22
Jul-23 Jul-23
Jul-24 Jul-24
Jul-25 Jul-25
Jul-26 Jul-26
Jul-27 Jul-27
Jul-28 Jul-28
Jul-29 Jul-29
Jul-30 Jul-30
Jul-31 Jul-31
Aug-01 Aug-01
Aug-02 Aug-02
Aug-03 Aug-03
Aug-04 Aug-04
Aug-05 Aug-05
Aug-06 Aug-06
Aug-07 Aug-07
Aug-08 Aug-08
Aug-09 Aug-09
Aug-10 Aug-10
Aug-11 Aug-11
Aug-12 Aug-12
Aug-13 Aug-13
Aug-14 Aug-14
Aug-15 Aug-15
Aug-16 Aug-16
Aug-17 Aug-17
Aug-18 Aug-18
Aug-19 Aug-19
Aug-20 Aug-20
Aug-21 Aug-21
Aug-22 Aug-22
Aug-23 Aug-23
Aug-24 Aug-24
Aug-25 Aug-25
Aug-26 Aug-26
Aug-27 Aug-27
Aug-28 Aug-28
Aug-29 Aug-29
Aug-30 Aug-30
Aug-31 Aug-31
Sep-01 Sep-01
Sep-02 Sep-02
Sep-03 Sep-03
Sep-04 Sep-04
Sep-05 Sep-05
Sep-06 Sep-06
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Sep-20 Sep-20
Sep-21 Sep-21
Sep-22 Sep-22
Sep-23 Sep-23
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Oct-01 Oct-01
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Nov-01 Nov-01
Nov-02 Nov-02
Nov-03 Nov-03
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Page 9: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Apr 2

1

Apr 2

8

May

5

May

12

May

19

May

26

June

2

June

9

June

16

June

23

100

0 he

ctar

esRussia Spring Wheat Sowing Progress

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sources Rosstat (2017) MinAg forecast (2018)

Planting is nearly 50 complete in the Central District (a minor spring-wheat area) but is just underway in the Volga Ural and

Siberian Districts

May 10 2018

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Tons

per

hec

tare

Russia Wheat Estimated Yield

Winter wheat Spring wheat

Sources Rosstat (1998-2017) FAS forecast (2018)

bull The forecast winter-wheat yield is 6 above average and 10 below last yearrsquos record

bull The forecast spring-wheat yield matches the 5-year average and is 16 below last yearrsquos record

May 10 2018

Source USDA (2007-2017) FAS forecasts (2018)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9019

9219

9319

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0520

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0720

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0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

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1520

1620

1720

18

Yiel

d (T

Ha)

Area

(MH

a) a

nd P

rodu

ctio

n (M

MT)

Russia Wheat Estimated Area Yield and Production

Harvested area Production Yield

Production is forecast at 720 mmt (down 135 mmt from last year) and yield at 277 tha (down 12 from last year)

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Map data courtesy of SAGEUniv of Wisconsin and based on FAOUSDA May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Winter Wheat

An historically dry autumn in key western production areas delayed wheat planting and left

soils devoid of moisture for establishment Conditions were favorable in the east

Fall SpringWinter

Planting HeadFlower

May 10 2018

The start of the 2017-18 cool wet season was

historically dry in northern Morocco

Conversely since then it has been the wettest

over the past 30 years In northern Morocco

Selected Region(Primary Wheat)

Morocco Satellite-Derived Vegetation Index

MODIS Aqua NDVI 8-Day Seasonal ChartSPAM 2005 masked for wheat

Showing significantly above-average peak greenness and later-than-normal development

Current Crop

May 10 2018

The VHI supports much-above-average yields across the entire region though inland winter dryness in Tunisia trimmed prospects locally

Winter Wheat

May 10 2018

Northwest Africa Wheat Yield and Production

Northwest Africa Wheat Area

Source USDA PSD Data

Source USDA PSD Data

May 10 2018

World Wheat Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2559 13 2705 146Production 7584 -14 7478 -106Total Supply 10143 -01 10182 39

Feed use 1454 -04 1456 02Total use 7438 07 7539 101

Trade 1821 1884 64Ending Stocks 2705 -08 2643 -61

Rounds to zero

US Wheat Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 460 -- 473 13Harvested area (million acres) 376 -- 389 14Yield (bushels per acre) 463 -- 468 05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 1181 -- 1070 -110Production 1741 -- 1821 81Imports 155 -- 135 -20Total supply 3076 -- 3027 -50

Food use 963 8 965 2Seed 63 1 62 -1Feed and residual 70 -- 120 50Domestic use 1096 9 1147 51

Exports 910 -15 925 15Total use 2006 -6 2072 66

Ending stocks 1070 6 955 -116----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 533 05 461 -73

Average market price 470 005 450550 030-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Rice Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 4882 08 4895 13United States 57 -- 65 08

Foreign 4826 08 4830 05Argentina 08 -- 08 01Brazil 81 -- 80 -01Egypt 43 -- 33 -10Bangladesh 327 -- 347 21Burma 132 -- 134 02Cambodia 54 04 55 01China 1460 -- 1445 -15India 1100 -- 1090 -10Indonesia 370 -- 373 03Japan 76 76 Sri Lanka 25 -- 26 01Pakistan 75 -- 74 -01Philippines 123 -- 124 Thailand 204 -- 210 06Vietnam 286 01 287 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

World Rice Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74

Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
05
29
05
28
05
28
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27
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27
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27
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28
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09
29
1
29
1
3
11
3
11
3
12
31
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13
32
13
32
13
33
14
33
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34
15
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2
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2
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26
5
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3
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4
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6
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49
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5
69
51
7
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7
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7
54
7
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7
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7
57
71
57
71
58
7
59
7
6
71
6
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6
7
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6
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6
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59
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55
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55
8
55
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8
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8
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81
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58
82
58
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59
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59
82
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
61
83
6
83
6
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83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
59
82
59
82
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82
58
82
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82
55
81
55
81
54
8
53
8
52
79
51
79
5
78
49
78
49
77
48
77
47
76
46
76
45
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45
75
44
74
43
73
42
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42
72
41
71
41
7
4
7
4
68
4
68
39
67
39
66
39
65
39
64
38
63
39
62
39
61
39
61
39
6
39
58
39
58
4
57
4
56
4
55
4
54
41
53
41
52
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42
5
42
49
43
48
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4
46
39
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31
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3
47
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47
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46
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27
46
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46
24
45
24
45
23
45
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45
22
45
21
44
2
44
2
44
19
44
19
44
18
44
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44
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43
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44
15
44
15
44
14
44
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44
14
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13
44
12
44
12
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
1
44
1
45
09
44
09
44
09
45
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45
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45
08
45
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45
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44
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44
07
44
07
44
07
44
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43
06
43
06
42
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06
41
06
4
06
4
05
39
05
38
06
38
06
37
06
36
05
36
05
35
06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
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Page 10: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

00

05

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20

25

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35

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45

1998

1999

2000

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2005

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2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Tons

per

hec

tare

Russia Wheat Estimated Yield

Winter wheat Spring wheat

Sources Rosstat (1998-2017) FAS forecast (2018)

bull The forecast winter-wheat yield is 6 above average and 10 below last yearrsquos record

bull The forecast spring-wheat yield matches the 5-year average and is 16 below last yearrsquos record

May 10 2018

Source USDA (2007-2017) FAS forecasts (2018)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

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9019

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1120

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18

Yiel

d (T

Ha)

Area

(MH

a) a

nd P

rodu

ctio

n (M

MT)

Russia Wheat Estimated Area Yield and Production

Harvested area Production Yield

Production is forecast at 720 mmt (down 135 mmt from last year) and yield at 277 tha (down 12 from last year)

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Map data courtesy of SAGEUniv of Wisconsin and based on FAOUSDA May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Winter Wheat

An historically dry autumn in key western production areas delayed wheat planting and left

soils devoid of moisture for establishment Conditions were favorable in the east

Fall SpringWinter

Planting HeadFlower

May 10 2018

The start of the 2017-18 cool wet season was

historically dry in northern Morocco

Conversely since then it has been the wettest

over the past 30 years In northern Morocco

Selected Region(Primary Wheat)

Morocco Satellite-Derived Vegetation Index

MODIS Aqua NDVI 8-Day Seasonal ChartSPAM 2005 masked for wheat

Showing significantly above-average peak greenness and later-than-normal development

Current Crop

May 10 2018

The VHI supports much-above-average yields across the entire region though inland winter dryness in Tunisia trimmed prospects locally

Winter Wheat

May 10 2018

Northwest Africa Wheat Yield and Production

Northwest Africa Wheat Area

Source USDA PSD Data

Source USDA PSD Data

May 10 2018

World Wheat Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2559 13 2705 146Production 7584 -14 7478 -106Total Supply 10143 -01 10182 39

Feed use 1454 -04 1456 02Total use 7438 07 7539 101

Trade 1821 1884 64Ending Stocks 2705 -08 2643 -61

Rounds to zero

US Wheat Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 460 -- 473 13Harvested area (million acres) 376 -- 389 14Yield (bushels per acre) 463 -- 468 05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 1181 -- 1070 -110Production 1741 -- 1821 81Imports 155 -- 135 -20Total supply 3076 -- 3027 -50

Food use 963 8 965 2Seed 63 1 62 -1Feed and residual 70 -- 120 50Domestic use 1096 9 1147 51

Exports 910 -15 925 15Total use 2006 -6 2072 66

Ending stocks 1070 6 955 -116----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 533 05 461 -73

Average market price 470 005 450550 030-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Rice Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 4882 08 4895 13United States 57 -- 65 08

Foreign 4826 08 4830 05Argentina 08 -- 08 01Brazil 81 -- 80 -01Egypt 43 -- 33 -10Bangladesh 327 -- 347 21Burma 132 -- 134 02Cambodia 54 04 55 01China 1460 -- 1445 -15India 1100 -- 1090 -10Indonesia 370 -- 373 03Japan 76 76 Sri Lanka 25 -- 26 01Pakistan 75 -- 74 -01Philippines 123 -- 124 Thailand 204 -- 210 06Vietnam 286 01 287 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

World Rice Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74

Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
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33
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3
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14
44
14
44
14
44
13
44
12
44
12
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
1
44
1
45
09
44
09
44
09
45
08
45
08
45
08
45
07
45
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
06
43
06
43
06
42
06
42
06
41
06
41
06
4
06
4
05
39
05
38
06
38
06
37
06
36
05
36
05
35
06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
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Page 11: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Source USDA (2007-2017) FAS forecasts (2018)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9019

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

18

Yiel

d (T

Ha)

Area

(MH

a) a

nd P

rodu

ctio

n (M

MT)

Russia Wheat Estimated Area Yield and Production

Harvested area Production Yield

Production is forecast at 720 mmt (down 135 mmt from last year) and yield at 277 tha (down 12 from last year)

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Map data courtesy of SAGEUniv of Wisconsin and based on FAOUSDA May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Winter Wheat

An historically dry autumn in key western production areas delayed wheat planting and left

soils devoid of moisture for establishment Conditions were favorable in the east

Fall SpringWinter

Planting HeadFlower

May 10 2018

The start of the 2017-18 cool wet season was

historically dry in northern Morocco

Conversely since then it has been the wettest

over the past 30 years In northern Morocco

Selected Region(Primary Wheat)

Morocco Satellite-Derived Vegetation Index

MODIS Aqua NDVI 8-Day Seasonal ChartSPAM 2005 masked for wheat

Showing significantly above-average peak greenness and later-than-normal development

Current Crop

May 10 2018

The VHI supports much-above-average yields across the entire region though inland winter dryness in Tunisia trimmed prospects locally

Winter Wheat

May 10 2018

Northwest Africa Wheat Yield and Production

Northwest Africa Wheat Area

Source USDA PSD Data

Source USDA PSD Data

May 10 2018

World Wheat Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2559 13 2705 146Production 7584 -14 7478 -106Total Supply 10143 -01 10182 39

Feed use 1454 -04 1456 02Total use 7438 07 7539 101

Trade 1821 1884 64Ending Stocks 2705 -08 2643 -61

Rounds to zero

US Wheat Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 460 -- 473 13Harvested area (million acres) 376 -- 389 14Yield (bushels per acre) 463 -- 468 05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 1181 -- 1070 -110Production 1741 -- 1821 81Imports 155 -- 135 -20Total supply 3076 -- 3027 -50

Food use 963 8 965 2Seed 63 1 62 -1Feed and residual 70 -- 120 50Domestic use 1096 9 1147 51

Exports 910 -15 925 15Total use 2006 -6 2072 66

Ending stocks 1070 6 955 -116----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 533 05 461 -73

Average market price 470 005 450550 030-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Rice Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 4882 08 4895 13United States 57 -- 65 08

Foreign 4826 08 4830 05Argentina 08 -- 08 01Brazil 81 -- 80 -01Egypt 43 -- 33 -10Bangladesh 327 -- 347 21Burma 132 -- 134 02Cambodia 54 04 55 01China 1460 -- 1445 -15India 1100 -- 1090 -10Indonesia 370 -- 373 03Japan 76 76 Sri Lanka 25 -- 26 01Pakistan 75 -- 74 -01Philippines 123 -- 124 Thailand 204 -- 210 06Vietnam 286 01 287 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

World Rice Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74

Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
05
29
05
28
05
28
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25
06
26
07
26
07
27
08
27
08
27
08
28
08
28
09
28
09
29
09
29
1
29
1
3
11
3
11
3
12
31
12
31
13
32
13
32
13
33
14
33
14
34
15
34
16
35
16
36
17
37
17
37
18
38
18
39
19
39
2
4
2
41
21
42
22
43
22
44
22
45
23
46
24
47
24
48
25
48
26
49
26
5
27
51
28
52
28
53
29
53
29
54
3
55
31
56
31
56
32
57
33
57
33
58
34
58
35
58
36
59
36
59
37
59
38
59
38
59
39
59
4
59
41
59
41
58
42
58
43
58
44
57
45
57
45
56
46
56
47
55
48
55
48
54
49
53
5
52
51
52
52
51
52
5
53
49
54
49
55
48
55
47
56
47
57
46
58
46
59
45
59
45
6
44
61
44
61
44
62
44
62
43
63
43
64
43
64
43
65
43
65
44
66
44
66
44
66
45
67
45
68
46
68
46
68
47
68
48
69
48
69
49
69
5
69
51
7
52
7
52
7
53
7
54
7
55
7
56
7
56
7
57
71
57
71
58
7
59
7
6
71
6
71
6
7
61
71
61
71
61
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
61
71
61
71
61
72
61
72
6
72
6
72
6
72
6
72
59
73
59
72
58
73
58
73
58
73
57
74
57
74
56
74
56
75
56
75
55
75
55
75
55
76
55
76
54
76
54
76
54
77
54
77
54
77
54
78
54
78
55
78
55
79
55
79
55
79
55
8
55
8
56
8
56
8
57
81
57
81
57
82
58
82
58
82
59
82
59
82
59
82
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
61
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
59
82
59
82
58
82
58
82
57
82
56
82
55
81
55
81
54
8
53
8
52
79
51
79
5
78
49
78
49
77
48
77
47
76
46
76
45
75
45
75
44
74
43
73
42
73
42
72
41
71
41
7
4
7
4
68
4
68
39
67
39
66
39
65
39
64
38
63
39
62
39
61
39
61
39
6
39
58
39
58
4
57
4
56
4
55
4
54
41
53
41
52
42
51
42
5
42
49
43
48
43
47
44
46
44
45
44
44
45
43
45
42
46
41
46
4
46
39
46
38
46
37
47
36
47
35
47
35
47
34
47
33
47
32
47
31
47
31
47
3
47
29
47
28
46
27
46
27
46
26
46
25
46
24
45
24
45
23
45
22
45
22
45
21
44
2
44
2
44
19
44
19
44
18
44
17
44
17
43
16
44
15
44
15
44
14
44
14
44
14
44
13
44
12
44
12
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
1
44
1
45
09
44
09
44
09
45
08
45
08
45
08
45
07
45
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
06
43
06
43
06
42
06
42
06
41
06
41
06
4
06
4
05
39
05
38
06
38
06
37
06
36
05
36
05
35
06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
Jul-01 Jul-01
Jul-02 Jul-02
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Page 12: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Map data courtesy of SAGEUniv of Wisconsin and based on FAOUSDA May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Winter Wheat

An historically dry autumn in key western production areas delayed wheat planting and left

soils devoid of moisture for establishment Conditions were favorable in the east

Fall SpringWinter

Planting HeadFlower

May 10 2018

The start of the 2017-18 cool wet season was

historically dry in northern Morocco

Conversely since then it has been the wettest

over the past 30 years In northern Morocco

Selected Region(Primary Wheat)

Morocco Satellite-Derived Vegetation Index

MODIS Aqua NDVI 8-Day Seasonal ChartSPAM 2005 masked for wheat

Showing significantly above-average peak greenness and later-than-normal development

Current Crop

May 10 2018

The VHI supports much-above-average yields across the entire region though inland winter dryness in Tunisia trimmed prospects locally

Winter Wheat

May 10 2018

Northwest Africa Wheat Yield and Production

Northwest Africa Wheat Area

Source USDA PSD Data

Source USDA PSD Data

May 10 2018

World Wheat Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2559 13 2705 146Production 7584 -14 7478 -106Total Supply 10143 -01 10182 39

Feed use 1454 -04 1456 02Total use 7438 07 7539 101

Trade 1821 1884 64Ending Stocks 2705 -08 2643 -61

Rounds to zero

US Wheat Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 460 -- 473 13Harvested area (million acres) 376 -- 389 14Yield (bushels per acre) 463 -- 468 05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 1181 -- 1070 -110Production 1741 -- 1821 81Imports 155 -- 135 -20Total supply 3076 -- 3027 -50

Food use 963 8 965 2Seed 63 1 62 -1Feed and residual 70 -- 120 50Domestic use 1096 9 1147 51

Exports 910 -15 925 15Total use 2006 -6 2072 66

Ending stocks 1070 6 955 -116----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 533 05 461 -73

Average market price 470 005 450550 030-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Rice Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 4882 08 4895 13United States 57 -- 65 08

Foreign 4826 08 4830 05Argentina 08 -- 08 01Brazil 81 -- 80 -01Egypt 43 -- 33 -10Bangladesh 327 -- 347 21Burma 132 -- 134 02Cambodia 54 04 55 01China 1460 -- 1445 -15India 1100 -- 1090 -10Indonesia 370 -- 373 03Japan 76 76 Sri Lanka 25 -- 26 01Pakistan 75 -- 74 -01Philippines 123 -- 124 Thailand 204 -- 210 06Vietnam 286 01 287 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

World Rice Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74

Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
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29
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06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
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  • Slide Number 7
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  • Slide Number 9
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  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
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  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
Jul-01 Jul-01
Jul-02 Jul-02
Jul-03 Jul-03
Jul-04 Jul-04
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Page 13: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Map data courtesy of SAGEUniv of Wisconsin and based on FAOUSDA May 10 2018

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

Winter Wheat

An historically dry autumn in key western production areas delayed wheat planting and left

soils devoid of moisture for establishment Conditions were favorable in the east

Fall SpringWinter

Planting HeadFlower

May 10 2018

The start of the 2017-18 cool wet season was

historically dry in northern Morocco

Conversely since then it has been the wettest

over the past 30 years In northern Morocco

Selected Region(Primary Wheat)

Morocco Satellite-Derived Vegetation Index

MODIS Aqua NDVI 8-Day Seasonal ChartSPAM 2005 masked for wheat

Showing significantly above-average peak greenness and later-than-normal development

Current Crop

May 10 2018

The VHI supports much-above-average yields across the entire region though inland winter dryness in Tunisia trimmed prospects locally

Winter Wheat

May 10 2018

Northwest Africa Wheat Yield and Production

Northwest Africa Wheat Area

Source USDA PSD Data

Source USDA PSD Data

May 10 2018

World Wheat Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2559 13 2705 146Production 7584 -14 7478 -106Total Supply 10143 -01 10182 39

Feed use 1454 -04 1456 02Total use 7438 07 7539 101

Trade 1821 1884 64Ending Stocks 2705 -08 2643 -61

Rounds to zero

US Wheat Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 460 -- 473 13Harvested area (million acres) 376 -- 389 14Yield (bushels per acre) 463 -- 468 05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 1181 -- 1070 -110Production 1741 -- 1821 81Imports 155 -- 135 -20Total supply 3076 -- 3027 -50

Food use 963 8 965 2Seed 63 1 62 -1Feed and residual 70 -- 120 50Domestic use 1096 9 1147 51

Exports 910 -15 925 15Total use 2006 -6 2072 66

Ending stocks 1070 6 955 -116----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 533 05 461 -73

Average market price 470 005 450550 030-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Rice Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 4882 08 4895 13United States 57 -- 65 08

Foreign 4826 08 4830 05Argentina 08 -- 08 01Brazil 81 -- 80 -01Egypt 43 -- 33 -10Bangladesh 327 -- 347 21Burma 132 -- 134 02Cambodia 54 04 55 01China 1460 -- 1445 -15India 1100 -- 1090 -10Indonesia 370 -- 373 03Japan 76 76 Sri Lanka 25 -- 26 01Pakistan 75 -- 74 -01Philippines 123 -- 124 Thailand 204 -- 210 06Vietnam 286 01 287 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

World Rice Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74

Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
05
29
05
28
05
28
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27
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27
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28
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29
1
29
1
3
11
3
11
3
12
31
12
31
13
32
13
32
13
33
14
33
14
34
15
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2
4
2
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47
24
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26
5
27
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28
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29
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3
55
31
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5
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6
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5
69
51
7
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7
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7
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7
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7
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7
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71
57
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6
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6
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8
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7
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4
68
39
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62
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61
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6
39
58
39
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4
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4
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4
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41
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5
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1
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1
45
09
44
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41
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4
06
4
05
39
05
38
06
38
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37
06
36
05
36
05
35
06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
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  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
Jul-01 Jul-01
Jul-02 Jul-02
Jul-03 Jul-03
Jul-04 Jul-04
Jul-05 Jul-05
Jul-06 Jul-06
Jul-07 Jul-07
Jul-08 Jul-08
Jul-09 Jul-09
Jul-10 Jul-10
Jul-11 Jul-11
Jul-12 Jul-12
Jul-13 Jul-13
Jul-14 Jul-14
Jul-15 Jul-15
Jul-16 Jul-16
Jul-17 Jul-17
Jul-18 Jul-18
Jul-19 Jul-19
Jul-20 Jul-20
Jul-21 Jul-21
Jul-22 Jul-22
Jul-23 Jul-23
Jul-24 Jul-24
Jul-25 Jul-25
Jul-26 Jul-26
Jul-27 Jul-27
Jul-28 Jul-28
Jul-29 Jul-29
Jul-30 Jul-30
Jul-31 Jul-31
Aug-01 Aug-01
Aug-02 Aug-02
Aug-03 Aug-03
Aug-04 Aug-04
Aug-05 Aug-05
Aug-06 Aug-06
Aug-07 Aug-07
Aug-08 Aug-08
Aug-09 Aug-09
Aug-10 Aug-10
Aug-11 Aug-11
Aug-12 Aug-12
Aug-13 Aug-13
Aug-14 Aug-14
Aug-15 Aug-15
Aug-16 Aug-16
Aug-17 Aug-17
Aug-18 Aug-18
Aug-19 Aug-19
Aug-20 Aug-20
Aug-21 Aug-21
Aug-22 Aug-22
Aug-23 Aug-23
Aug-24 Aug-24
Aug-25 Aug-25
Aug-26 Aug-26
Aug-27 Aug-27
Aug-28 Aug-28
Aug-29 Aug-29
Aug-30 Aug-30
Aug-31 Aug-31
Sep-01 Sep-01
Sep-02 Sep-02
Sep-03 Sep-03
Sep-04 Sep-04
Sep-05 Sep-05
Sep-06 Sep-06
Sep-07 Sep-07
Sep-08 Sep-08
Sep-09 Sep-09
Sep-10 Sep-10
Sep-11 Sep-11
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Sep-16 Sep-16
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Sep-18 Sep-18
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Sep-20 Sep-20
Sep-21 Sep-21
Sep-22 Sep-22
Sep-23 Sep-23
Sep-24 Sep-24
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Sep-26 Sep-26
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Page 14: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Fall SpringWinter

Planting HeadFlower

May 10 2018

The start of the 2017-18 cool wet season was

historically dry in northern Morocco

Conversely since then it has been the wettest

over the past 30 years In northern Morocco

Selected Region(Primary Wheat)

Morocco Satellite-Derived Vegetation Index

MODIS Aqua NDVI 8-Day Seasonal ChartSPAM 2005 masked for wheat

Showing significantly above-average peak greenness and later-than-normal development

Current Crop

May 10 2018

The VHI supports much-above-average yields across the entire region though inland winter dryness in Tunisia trimmed prospects locally

Winter Wheat

May 10 2018

Northwest Africa Wheat Yield and Production

Northwest Africa Wheat Area

Source USDA PSD Data

Source USDA PSD Data

May 10 2018

World Wheat Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2559 13 2705 146Production 7584 -14 7478 -106Total Supply 10143 -01 10182 39

Feed use 1454 -04 1456 02Total use 7438 07 7539 101

Trade 1821 1884 64Ending Stocks 2705 -08 2643 -61

Rounds to zero

US Wheat Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 460 -- 473 13Harvested area (million acres) 376 -- 389 14Yield (bushels per acre) 463 -- 468 05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 1181 -- 1070 -110Production 1741 -- 1821 81Imports 155 -- 135 -20Total supply 3076 -- 3027 -50

Food use 963 8 965 2Seed 63 1 62 -1Feed and residual 70 -- 120 50Domestic use 1096 9 1147 51

Exports 910 -15 925 15Total use 2006 -6 2072 66

Ending stocks 1070 6 955 -116----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 533 05 461 -73

Average market price 470 005 450550 030-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Rice Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 4882 08 4895 13United States 57 -- 65 08

Foreign 4826 08 4830 05Argentina 08 -- 08 01Brazil 81 -- 80 -01Egypt 43 -- 33 -10Bangladesh 327 -- 347 21Burma 132 -- 134 02Cambodia 54 04 55 01China 1460 -- 1445 -15India 1100 -- 1090 -10Indonesia 370 -- 373 03Japan 76 76 Sri Lanka 25 -- 26 01Pakistan 75 -- 74 -01Philippines 123 -- 124 Thailand 204 -- 210 06Vietnam 286 01 287 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

World Rice Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74

Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
05
29
05
28
05
28
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1
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1
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11
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3
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31
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69
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4
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62
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61
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6
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58
39
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4
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5
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1
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1
45
09
44
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41
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4
06
4
05
39
05
38
06
38
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37
06
36
05
36
05
35
06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
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Page 15: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Selected Region(Primary Wheat)

Morocco Satellite-Derived Vegetation Index

MODIS Aqua NDVI 8-Day Seasonal ChartSPAM 2005 masked for wheat

Showing significantly above-average peak greenness and later-than-normal development

Current Crop

May 10 2018

The VHI supports much-above-average yields across the entire region though inland winter dryness in Tunisia trimmed prospects locally

Winter Wheat

May 10 2018

Northwest Africa Wheat Yield and Production

Northwest Africa Wheat Area

Source USDA PSD Data

Source USDA PSD Data

May 10 2018

World Wheat Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2559 13 2705 146Production 7584 -14 7478 -106Total Supply 10143 -01 10182 39

Feed use 1454 -04 1456 02Total use 7438 07 7539 101

Trade 1821 1884 64Ending Stocks 2705 -08 2643 -61

Rounds to zero

US Wheat Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 460 -- 473 13Harvested area (million acres) 376 -- 389 14Yield (bushels per acre) 463 -- 468 05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 1181 -- 1070 -110Production 1741 -- 1821 81Imports 155 -- 135 -20Total supply 3076 -- 3027 -50

Food use 963 8 965 2Seed 63 1 62 -1Feed and residual 70 -- 120 50Domestic use 1096 9 1147 51

Exports 910 -15 925 15Total use 2006 -6 2072 66

Ending stocks 1070 6 955 -116----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 533 05 461 -73

Average market price 470 005 450550 030-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Rice Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 4882 08 4895 13United States 57 -- 65 08

Foreign 4826 08 4830 05Argentina 08 -- 08 01Brazil 81 -- 80 -01Egypt 43 -- 33 -10Bangladesh 327 -- 347 21Burma 132 -- 134 02Cambodia 54 04 55 01China 1460 -- 1445 -15India 1100 -- 1090 -10Indonesia 370 -- 373 03Japan 76 76 Sri Lanka 25 -- 26 01Pakistan 75 -- 74 -01Philippines 123 -- 124 Thailand 204 -- 210 06Vietnam 286 01 287 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

World Rice Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74

Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
05
29
05
28
05
28
05
27
05
27
05
26
05
25
05
25
05
24
05
24
05
24
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
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05
22
05
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05
22
05
22
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22
05
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05
22
05
23
05
23
05
23
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23
05
23
06
23
06
24
05
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05
24
05
24
06
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06
25
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06
25
06
26
07
26
07
27
08
27
08
27
08
28
08
28
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09
29
09
29
1
29
1
3
11
3
11
3
12
31
12
31
13
32
13
32
13
33
14
33
14
34
15
34
16
35
16
36
17
37
17
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18
38
18
39
19
39
2
4
2
41
21
42
22
43
22
44
22
45
23
46
24
47
24
48
25
48
26
49
26
5
27
51
28
52
28
53
29
53
29
54
3
55
31
56
31
56
32
57
33
57
33
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34
58
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4
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41
59
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42
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56
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48
55
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49
53
5
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51
52
5
53
49
54
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48
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59
45
6
44
61
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62
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64
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48
69
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49
69
5
69
51
7
52
7
52
7
53
7
54
7
55
7
56
7
56
7
57
71
57
71
58
7
59
7
6
71
6
71
6
7
61
71
61
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71
62
71
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61
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6
72
6
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6
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6
72
59
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57
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54
78
54
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55
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55
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55
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55
79
55
8
55
8
56
8
56
8
57
81
57
81
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82
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82
58
82
59
82
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82
6
83
6
83
6
83
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83
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83
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83
6
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6
83
59
82
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82
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82
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82
55
81
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81
54
8
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8
52
79
51
79
5
78
49
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77
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76
46
76
45
75
45
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44
74
43
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42
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42
72
41
71
41
7
4
7
4
68
4
68
39
67
39
66
39
65
39
64
38
63
39
62
39
61
39
61
39
6
39
58
39
58
4
57
4
56
4
55
4
54
41
53
41
52
42
51
42
5
42
49
43
48
43
47
44
46
44
45
44
44
45
43
45
42
46
41
46
4
46
39
46
38
46
37
47
36
47
35
47
35
47
34
47
33
47
32
47
31
47
31
47
3
47
29
47
28
46
27
46
27
46
26
46
25
46
24
45
24
45
23
45
22
45
22
45
21
44
2
44
2
44
19
44
19
44
18
44
17
44
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43
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44
15
44
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44
14
44
14
44
14
44
13
44
12
44
12
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
1
44
1
45
09
44
09
44
09
45
08
45
08
45
08
45
07
45
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
06
43
06
43
06
42
06
42
06
41
06
41
06
4
06
4
05
39
05
38
06
38
06
37
06
36
05
36
05
35
06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
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Page 16: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

The VHI supports much-above-average yields across the entire region though inland winter dryness in Tunisia trimmed prospects locally

Winter Wheat

May 10 2018

Northwest Africa Wheat Yield and Production

Northwest Africa Wheat Area

Source USDA PSD Data

Source USDA PSD Data

May 10 2018

World Wheat Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2559 13 2705 146Production 7584 -14 7478 -106Total Supply 10143 -01 10182 39

Feed use 1454 -04 1456 02Total use 7438 07 7539 101

Trade 1821 1884 64Ending Stocks 2705 -08 2643 -61

Rounds to zero

US Wheat Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 460 -- 473 13Harvested area (million acres) 376 -- 389 14Yield (bushels per acre) 463 -- 468 05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 1181 -- 1070 -110Production 1741 -- 1821 81Imports 155 -- 135 -20Total supply 3076 -- 3027 -50

Food use 963 8 965 2Seed 63 1 62 -1Feed and residual 70 -- 120 50Domestic use 1096 9 1147 51

Exports 910 -15 925 15Total use 2006 -6 2072 66

Ending stocks 1070 6 955 -116----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 533 05 461 -73

Average market price 470 005 450550 030-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Rice Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 4882 08 4895 13United States 57 -- 65 08

Foreign 4826 08 4830 05Argentina 08 -- 08 01Brazil 81 -- 80 -01Egypt 43 -- 33 -10Bangladesh 327 -- 347 21Burma 132 -- 134 02Cambodia 54 04 55 01China 1460 -- 1445 -15India 1100 -- 1090 -10Indonesia 370 -- 373 03Japan 76 76 Sri Lanka 25 -- 26 01Pakistan 75 -- 74 -01Philippines 123 -- 124 Thailand 204 -- 210 06Vietnam 286 01 287 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

World Rice Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74

Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
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4
46
39
46
38
46
37
47
36
47
35
47
35
47
34
47
33
47
32
47
31
47
31
47
3
47
29
47
28
46
27
46
27
46
26
46
25
46
24
45
24
45
23
45
22
45
22
45
21
44
2
44
2
44
19
44
19
44
18
44
17
44
17
43
16
44
15
44
15
44
14
44
14
44
14
44
13
44
12
44
12
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
1
44
1
45
09
44
09
44
09
45
08
45
08
45
08
45
07
45
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
06
43
06
43
06
42
06
42
06
41
06
41
06
4
06
4
05
39
05
38
06
38
06
37
06
36
05
36
05
35
06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
Jul-01 Jul-01
Jul-02 Jul-02
Jul-03 Jul-03
Jul-04 Jul-04
Jul-05 Jul-05
Jul-06 Jul-06
Jul-07 Jul-07
Jul-08 Jul-08
Jul-09 Jul-09
Jul-10 Jul-10
Jul-11 Jul-11
Jul-12 Jul-12
Jul-13 Jul-13
Jul-14 Jul-14
Jul-15 Jul-15
Jul-16 Jul-16
Jul-17 Jul-17
Jul-18 Jul-18
Jul-19 Jul-19
Jul-20 Jul-20
Jul-21 Jul-21
Jul-22 Jul-22
Jul-23 Jul-23
Jul-24 Jul-24
Jul-25 Jul-25
Jul-26 Jul-26
Jul-27 Jul-27
Jul-28 Jul-28
Jul-29 Jul-29
Jul-30 Jul-30
Jul-31 Jul-31
Aug-01 Aug-01
Aug-02 Aug-02
Aug-03 Aug-03
Aug-04 Aug-04
Aug-05 Aug-05
Aug-06 Aug-06
Aug-07 Aug-07
Aug-08 Aug-08
Aug-09 Aug-09
Aug-10 Aug-10
Aug-11 Aug-11
Aug-12 Aug-12
Aug-13 Aug-13
Aug-14 Aug-14
Aug-15 Aug-15
Aug-16 Aug-16
Aug-17 Aug-17
Aug-18 Aug-18
Aug-19 Aug-19
Aug-20 Aug-20
Aug-21 Aug-21
Aug-22 Aug-22
Aug-23 Aug-23
Aug-24 Aug-24
Aug-25 Aug-25
Aug-26 Aug-26
Aug-27 Aug-27
Aug-28 Aug-28
Aug-29 Aug-29
Aug-30 Aug-30
Aug-31 Aug-31
Sep-01 Sep-01
Sep-02 Sep-02
Sep-03 Sep-03
Sep-04 Sep-04
Sep-05 Sep-05
Sep-06 Sep-06
Sep-07 Sep-07
Sep-08 Sep-08
Sep-09 Sep-09
Sep-10 Sep-10
Sep-11 Sep-11
Sep-12 Sep-12
Sep-13 Sep-13
Sep-14 Sep-14
Sep-15 Sep-15
Sep-16 Sep-16
Sep-17 Sep-17
Sep-18 Sep-18
Sep-19 Sep-19
Sep-20 Sep-20
Sep-21 Sep-21
Sep-22 Sep-22
Sep-23 Sep-23
Sep-24 Sep-24
Sep-25 Sep-25
Sep-26 Sep-26
Sep-27 Sep-27
Sep-28 Sep-28
Sep-29 Sep-29
Sep-30 Sep-30
Oct-01 Oct-01
Oct-02 Oct-02
Oct-03 Oct-03
Oct-04 Oct-04
Oct-05 Oct-05
Oct-06 Oct-06
Oct-07 Oct-07
Oct-08 Oct-08
Oct-09 Oct-09
Oct-10 Oct-10
Oct-11 Oct-11
Oct-12 Oct-12
Oct-13 Oct-13
Oct-14 Oct-14
Oct-15 Oct-15
Oct-16 Oct-16
Oct-17 Oct-17
Oct-18 Oct-18
Oct-19 Oct-19
Oct-20 Oct-20
Oct-21 Oct-21
Oct-22 Oct-22
Oct-23 Oct-23
Oct-24 Oct-24
Oct-25 Oct-25
Oct-26 Oct-26
Oct-27 Oct-27
Oct-28 Oct-28
Oct-29 Oct-29
Oct-30 Oct-30
Oct-31 Oct-31
Nov-01 Nov-01
Nov-02 Nov-02
Nov-03 Nov-03
Nov-04 Nov-04
Nov-05 Nov-05
Nov-06 Nov-06
Nov-07 Nov-07
Nov-08 Nov-08
Nov-09 Nov-09
Nov-10 Nov-10
Nov-11 Nov-11
Nov-12 Nov-12
Nov-13 Nov-13
Nov-14 Nov-14
Nov-15 Nov-15
Nov-16 Nov-16
Nov-17 Nov-17
Nov-18 Nov-18
Nov-19 Nov-19
Nov-20 Nov-20
Nov-21 Nov-21
Nov-22 Nov-22
Nov-23 Nov-23
Nov-24 Nov-24
Nov-25 Nov-25
Nov-26 Nov-26
Nov-27 Nov-27
Nov-28 Nov-28
Nov-29 Nov-29
Nov-30 Nov-30
Dec-01 Dec-01
Dec-02 Dec-02
Dec-03 Dec-03
Dec-04 Dec-04
Dec-05 Dec-05
Dec-06 Dec-06
Dec-07 Dec-07
Dec-08 Dec-08
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Mar-01 Mar-01
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Mar-18 Mar-18
Mar-19 Mar-19
Mar-20 Mar-20
Mar-21 Mar-21
Mar-22 Mar-22
Mar-23 Mar-23
Mar-24 Mar-24
Mar-25 Mar-25
Mar-26 Mar-26
Mar-27 Mar-27
Mar-28 Mar-28
Mar-29 Mar-29
Mar-30 Mar-30
Mar-31 Mar-31
Apr-01 Apr-01
Apr-02 Apr-02
Apr-03 Apr-03
Apr-04 Apr-04
Apr-05 Apr-05
Apr-06 Apr-06
Apr-07 Apr-07
Apr-08 Apr-08
Apr-09 Apr-09
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Apr-21 Apr-21
Apr-22 Apr-22
Apr-23 Apr-23
Apr-24 Apr-24
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Apr-27 Apr-27
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Apr-29 Apr-29
Apr-30 Apr-30
May-01 May-01
May-02 May-02
May-03 May-03
May-04 May-04
May-05 May-05
May-06 May-06
May-07 May-07
May-08 May-08
May-09 May-09
May-10 May-10
May-11 May-11
May-12 May-12
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May-14 May-14
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Jun-01 Jun-01
Jun-02 Jun-02
Jun-03 Jun-03
Jun-04 Jun-04
Jun-05 Jun-05
Jun-06 Jun-06
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Page 17: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Northwest Africa Wheat Yield and Production

Northwest Africa Wheat Area

Source USDA PSD Data

Source USDA PSD Data

May 10 2018

World Wheat Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2559 13 2705 146Production 7584 -14 7478 -106Total Supply 10143 -01 10182 39

Feed use 1454 -04 1456 02Total use 7438 07 7539 101

Trade 1821 1884 64Ending Stocks 2705 -08 2643 -61

Rounds to zero

US Wheat Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 460 -- 473 13Harvested area (million acres) 376 -- 389 14Yield (bushels per acre) 463 -- 468 05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 1181 -- 1070 -110Production 1741 -- 1821 81Imports 155 -- 135 -20Total supply 3076 -- 3027 -50

Food use 963 8 965 2Seed 63 1 62 -1Feed and residual 70 -- 120 50Domestic use 1096 9 1147 51

Exports 910 -15 925 15Total use 2006 -6 2072 66

Ending stocks 1070 6 955 -116----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 533 05 461 -73

Average market price 470 005 450550 030-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Rice Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 4882 08 4895 13United States 57 -- 65 08

Foreign 4826 08 4830 05Argentina 08 -- 08 01Brazil 81 -- 80 -01Egypt 43 -- 33 -10Bangladesh 327 -- 347 21Burma 132 -- 134 02Cambodia 54 04 55 01China 1460 -- 1445 -15India 1100 -- 1090 -10Indonesia 370 -- 373 03Japan 76 76 Sri Lanka 25 -- 26 01Pakistan 75 -- 74 -01Philippines 123 -- 124 Thailand 204 -- 210 06Vietnam 286 01 287 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

World Rice Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74

Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
05
29
05
28
05
28
05
27
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26
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27
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27
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28
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29
1
29
1
3
11
3
11
3
12
31
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31
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32
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32
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33
14
33
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34
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2
4
2
41
21
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24
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26
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26
5
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3
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31
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58
35
58
36
59
36
59
37
59
38
59
38
59
39
59
4
59
41
59
41
58
42
58
43
58
44
57
45
57
45
56
46
56
47
55
48
55
48
54
49
53
5
52
51
52
52
51
52
5
53
49
54
49
55
48
55
47
56
47
57
46
58
46
59
45
59
45
6
44
61
44
61
44
62
44
62
43
63
43
64
43
64
43
65
43
65
44
66
44
66
44
66
45
67
45
68
46
68
46
68
47
68
48
69
48
69
49
69
5
69
51
7
52
7
52
7
53
7
54
7
55
7
56
7
56
7
57
71
57
71
58
7
59
7
6
71
6
71
6
7
61
71
61
71
61
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
61
71
61
71
61
72
61
72
6
72
6
72
6
72
6
72
59
73
59
72
58
73
58
73
58
73
57
74
57
74
56
74
56
75
56
75
55
75
55
75
55
76
55
76
54
76
54
76
54
77
54
77
54
77
54
78
54
78
55
78
55
79
55
79
55
79
55
8
55
8
56
8
56
8
57
81
57
81
57
82
58
82
58
82
59
82
59
82
59
82
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
61
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
59
82
59
82
58
82
58
82
57
82
56
82
55
81
55
81
54
8
53
8
52
79
51
79
5
78
49
78
49
77
48
77
47
76
46
76
45
75
45
75
44
74
43
73
42
73
42
72
41
71
41
7
4
7
4
68
4
68
39
67
39
66
39
65
39
64
38
63
39
62
39
61
39
61
39
6
39
58
39
58
4
57
4
56
4
55
4
54
41
53
41
52
42
51
42
5
42
49
43
48
43
47
44
46
44
45
44
44
45
43
45
42
46
41
46
4
46
39
46
38
46
37
47
36
47
35
47
35
47
34
47
33
47
32
47
31
47
31
47
3
47
29
47
28
46
27
46
27
46
26
46
25
46
24
45
24
45
23
45
22
45
22
45
21
44
2
44
2
44
19
44
19
44
18
44
17
44
17
43
16
44
15
44
15
44
14
44
14
44
14
44
13
44
12
44
12
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
1
44
1
45
09
44
09
44
09
45
08
45
08
45
08
45
07
45
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
06
43
06
43
06
42
06
42
06
41
06
41
06
4
06
4
05
39
05
38
06
38
06
37
06
36
05
36
05
35
06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
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Page 18: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

World Wheat Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2559 13 2705 146Production 7584 -14 7478 -106Total Supply 10143 -01 10182 39

Feed use 1454 -04 1456 02Total use 7438 07 7539 101

Trade 1821 1884 64Ending Stocks 2705 -08 2643 -61

Rounds to zero

US Wheat Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 460 -- 473 13Harvested area (million acres) 376 -- 389 14Yield (bushels per acre) 463 -- 468 05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 1181 -- 1070 -110Production 1741 -- 1821 81Imports 155 -- 135 -20Total supply 3076 -- 3027 -50

Food use 963 8 965 2Seed 63 1 62 -1Feed and residual 70 -- 120 50Domestic use 1096 9 1147 51

Exports 910 -15 925 15Total use 2006 -6 2072 66

Ending stocks 1070 6 955 -116----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 533 05 461 -73

Average market price 470 005 450550 030-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Rice Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 4882 08 4895 13United States 57 -- 65 08

Foreign 4826 08 4830 05Argentina 08 -- 08 01Brazil 81 -- 80 -01Egypt 43 -- 33 -10Bangladesh 327 -- 347 21Burma 132 -- 134 02Cambodia 54 04 55 01China 1460 -- 1445 -15India 1100 -- 1090 -10Indonesia 370 -- 373 03Japan 76 76 Sri Lanka 25 -- 26 01Pakistan 75 -- 74 -01Philippines 123 -- 124 Thailand 204 -- 210 06Vietnam 286 01 287 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

World Rice Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74

Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
05
29
05
28
05
28
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27
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1
29
1
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11
3
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41
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26
5
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3
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5
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69
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7
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8
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81
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79
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06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
Jul-01 Jul-01
Jul-02 Jul-02
Jul-03 Jul-03
Jul-04 Jul-04
Jul-05 Jul-05
Jul-06 Jul-06
Jul-07 Jul-07
Jul-08 Jul-08
Jul-09 Jul-09
Jul-10 Jul-10
Jul-11 Jul-11
Jul-12 Jul-12
Jul-13 Jul-13
Jul-14 Jul-14
Jul-15 Jul-15
Jul-16 Jul-16
Jul-17 Jul-17
Jul-18 Jul-18
Jul-19 Jul-19
Jul-20 Jul-20
Jul-21 Jul-21
Jul-22 Jul-22
Jul-23 Jul-23
Jul-24 Jul-24
Jul-25 Jul-25
Jul-26 Jul-26
Jul-27 Jul-27
Jul-28 Jul-28
Jul-29 Jul-29
Jul-30 Jul-30
Jul-31 Jul-31
Aug-01 Aug-01
Aug-02 Aug-02
Aug-03 Aug-03
Aug-04 Aug-04
Aug-05 Aug-05
Aug-06 Aug-06
Aug-07 Aug-07
Aug-08 Aug-08
Aug-09 Aug-09
Aug-10 Aug-10
Aug-11 Aug-11
Aug-12 Aug-12
Aug-13 Aug-13
Aug-14 Aug-14
Aug-15 Aug-15
Aug-16 Aug-16
Aug-17 Aug-17
Aug-18 Aug-18
Aug-19 Aug-19
Aug-20 Aug-20
Aug-21 Aug-21
Aug-22 Aug-22
Aug-23 Aug-23
Aug-24 Aug-24
Aug-25 Aug-25
Aug-26 Aug-26
Aug-27 Aug-27
Aug-28 Aug-28
Aug-29 Aug-29
Aug-30 Aug-30
Aug-31 Aug-31
Sep-01 Sep-01
Sep-02 Sep-02
Sep-03 Sep-03
Sep-04 Sep-04
Sep-05 Sep-05
Sep-06 Sep-06
Sep-07 Sep-07
Sep-08 Sep-08
Sep-09 Sep-09
Sep-10 Sep-10
Sep-11 Sep-11
Sep-12 Sep-12
Sep-13 Sep-13
Sep-14 Sep-14
Sep-15 Sep-15
Sep-16 Sep-16
Sep-17 Sep-17
Sep-18 Sep-18
Sep-19 Sep-19
Sep-20 Sep-20
Sep-21 Sep-21
Sep-22 Sep-22
Sep-23 Sep-23
Sep-24 Sep-24
Sep-25 Sep-25
Sep-26 Sep-26
Sep-27 Sep-27
Sep-28 Sep-28
Sep-29 Sep-29
Sep-30 Sep-30
Oct-01 Oct-01
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Oct-03 Oct-03
Oct-04 Oct-04
Oct-05 Oct-05
Oct-06 Oct-06
Oct-07 Oct-07
Oct-08 Oct-08
Oct-09 Oct-09
Oct-10 Oct-10
Oct-11 Oct-11
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Oct-24 Oct-24
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Oct-26 Oct-26
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Oct-28 Oct-28
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Oct-31 Oct-31
Nov-01 Nov-01
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Nov-03 Nov-03
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Nov-07 Nov-07
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Nov-20 Nov-20
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Nov-23 Nov-23
Nov-24 Nov-24
Nov-25 Nov-25
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Nov-27 Nov-27
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Dec-01 Dec-01
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Mar-01 Mar-01
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May-01 May-01
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May-29 May-29
May-30 May-30
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Page 19: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

US Wheat Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 460 -- 473 13Harvested area (million acres) 376 -- 389 14Yield (bushels per acre) 463 -- 468 05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 1181 -- 1070 -110Production 1741 -- 1821 81Imports 155 -- 135 -20Total supply 3076 -- 3027 -50

Food use 963 8 965 2Seed 63 1 62 -1Feed and residual 70 -- 120 50Domestic use 1096 9 1147 51

Exports 910 -15 925 15Total use 2006 -6 2072 66

Ending stocks 1070 6 955 -116----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 533 05 461 -73

Average market price 470 005 450550 030-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Rice Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 4882 08 4895 13United States 57 -- 65 08

Foreign 4826 08 4830 05Argentina 08 -- 08 01Brazil 81 -- 80 -01Egypt 43 -- 33 -10Bangladesh 327 -- 347 21Burma 132 -- 134 02Cambodia 54 04 55 01China 1460 -- 1445 -15India 1100 -- 1090 -10Indonesia 370 -- 373 03Japan 76 76 Sri Lanka 25 -- 26 01Pakistan 75 -- 74 -01Philippines 123 -- 124 Thailand 204 -- 210 06Vietnam 286 01 287 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

World Rice Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74

Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
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05
31
06
3
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Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
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  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
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  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
Jul-01 Jul-01
Jul-02 Jul-02
Jul-03 Jul-03
Jul-04 Jul-04
Jul-05 Jul-05
Jul-06 Jul-06
Jul-07 Jul-07
Jul-08 Jul-08
Jul-09 Jul-09
Jul-10 Jul-10
Jul-11 Jul-11
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Jul-30 Jul-30
Jul-31 Jul-31
Aug-01 Aug-01
Aug-02 Aug-02
Aug-03 Aug-03
Aug-04 Aug-04
Aug-05 Aug-05
Aug-06 Aug-06
Aug-07 Aug-07
Aug-08 Aug-08
Aug-09 Aug-09
Aug-10 Aug-10
Aug-11 Aug-11
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Aug-13 Aug-13
Aug-14 Aug-14
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Aug-19 Aug-19
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Aug-24 Aug-24
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Aug-31 Aug-31
Sep-01 Sep-01
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Sep-18 Sep-18
Sep-19 Sep-19
Sep-20 Sep-20
Sep-21 Sep-21
Sep-22 Sep-22
Sep-23 Sep-23
Sep-24 Sep-24
Sep-25 Sep-25
Sep-26 Sep-26
Sep-27 Sep-27
Sep-28 Sep-28
Sep-29 Sep-29
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Oct-01 Oct-01
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Oct-03 Oct-03
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Oct-05 Oct-05
Oct-06 Oct-06
Oct-07 Oct-07
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Nov-01 Nov-01
Nov-02 Nov-02
Nov-03 Nov-03
Nov-04 Nov-04
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Nov-06 Nov-06
Nov-07 Nov-07
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Dec-01 Dec-01
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Jun-30 Jun-30
Page 20: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

World Rice Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 4882 08 4895 13United States 57 -- 65 08

Foreign 4826 08 4830 05Argentina 08 -- 08 01Brazil 81 -- 80 -01Egypt 43 -- 33 -10Bangladesh 327 -- 347 21Burma 132 -- 134 02Cambodia 54 04 55 01China 1460 -- 1445 -15India 1100 -- 1090 -10Indonesia 370 -- 373 03Japan 76 76 Sri Lanka 25 -- 26 01Pakistan 75 -- 74 -01Philippines 123 -- 124 Thailand 204 -- 210 06Vietnam 286 01 287 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

World Rice Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74

Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
05
29
05
28
05
28
05
27
05
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29
1
29
1
3
11
3
11
3
12
31
12
31
13
32
13
32
13
33
14
33
14
34
15
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2
4
2
41
21
42
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44
22
45
23
46
24
47
24
48
25
48
26
49
26
5
27
51
28
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28
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29
53
29
54
3
55
31
56
31
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4
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5
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6
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5
69
51
7
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7
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7
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7
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71
57
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7
59
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6
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6
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55
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55
8
55
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8
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81
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6
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8
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8
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79
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79
5
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7
4
7
4
68
4
68
39
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62
39
61
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61
39
6
39
58
39
58
4
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4
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4
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4
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41
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41
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5
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1
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1
45
09
44
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41
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4
06
4
05
39
05
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38
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37
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36
05
36
05
35
06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
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  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
Jul-01 Jul-01
Jul-02 Jul-02
Jul-03 Jul-03
Jul-04 Jul-04
Jul-05 Jul-05
Jul-06 Jul-06
Jul-07 Jul-07
Jul-08 Jul-08
Jul-09 Jul-09
Jul-10 Jul-10
Jul-11 Jul-11
Jul-12 Jul-12
Jul-13 Jul-13
Jul-14 Jul-14
Jul-15 Jul-15
Jul-16 Jul-16
Jul-17 Jul-17
Jul-18 Jul-18
Jul-19 Jul-19
Jul-20 Jul-20
Jul-21 Jul-21
Jul-22 Jul-22
Jul-23 Jul-23
Jul-24 Jul-24
Jul-25 Jul-25
Jul-26 Jul-26
Jul-27 Jul-27
Jul-28 Jul-28
Jul-29 Jul-29
Jul-30 Jul-30
Jul-31 Jul-31
Aug-01 Aug-01
Aug-02 Aug-02
Aug-03 Aug-03
Aug-04 Aug-04
Aug-05 Aug-05
Aug-06 Aug-06
Aug-07 Aug-07
Aug-08 Aug-08
Aug-09 Aug-09
Aug-10 Aug-10
Aug-11 Aug-11
Aug-12 Aug-12
Aug-13 Aug-13
Aug-14 Aug-14
Aug-15 Aug-15
Aug-16 Aug-16
Aug-17 Aug-17
Aug-18 Aug-18
Aug-19 Aug-19
Aug-20 Aug-20
Aug-21 Aug-21
Aug-22 Aug-22
Aug-23 Aug-23
Aug-24 Aug-24
Aug-25 Aug-25
Aug-26 Aug-26
Aug-27 Aug-27
Aug-28 Aug-28
Aug-29 Aug-29
Aug-30 Aug-30
Aug-31 Aug-31
Sep-01 Sep-01
Sep-02 Sep-02
Sep-03 Sep-03
Sep-04 Sep-04
Sep-05 Sep-05
Sep-06 Sep-06
Sep-07 Sep-07
Sep-08 Sep-08
Sep-09 Sep-09
Sep-10 Sep-10
Sep-11 Sep-11
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Sep-16 Sep-16
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Sep-18 Sep-18
Sep-19 Sep-19
Sep-20 Sep-20
Sep-21 Sep-21
Sep-22 Sep-22
Sep-23 Sep-23
Sep-24 Sep-24
Sep-25 Sep-25
Sep-26 Sep-26
Sep-27 Sep-27
Sep-28 Sep-28
Sep-29 Sep-29
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Page 21: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

World Rice Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74

Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
05
29
05
28
05
28
05
27
05
27
05
26
05
25
05
25
05
24
05
24
05
24
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
22
05
22
05
22
05
22
05
22
05
22
05
22
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
23
06
23
06
24
05
24
05
24
05
24
06
25
06
25
06
25
06
25
06
26
07
26
07
27
08
27
08
27
08
28
08
28
09
28
09
29
09
29
1
29
1
3
11
3
11
3
12
31
12
31
13
32
13
32
13
33
14
33
14
34
15
34
16
35
16
36
17
37
17
37
18
38
18
39
19
39
2
4
2
41
21
42
22
43
22
44
22
45
23
46
24
47
24
48
25
48
26
49
26
5
27
51
28
52
28
53
29
53
29
54
3
55
31
56
31
56
32
57
33
57
33
58
34
58
35
58
36
59
36
59
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59
38
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38
59
39
59
4
59
41
59
41
58
42
58
43
58
44
57
45
57
45
56
46
56
47
55
48
55
48
54
49
53
5
52
51
52
52
51
52
5
53
49
54
49
55
48
55
47
56
47
57
46
58
46
59
45
59
45
6
44
61
44
61
44
62
44
62
43
63
43
64
43
64
43
65
43
65
44
66
44
66
44
66
45
67
45
68
46
68
46
68
47
68
48
69
48
69
49
69
5
69
51
7
52
7
52
7
53
7
54
7
55
7
56
7
56
7
57
71
57
71
58
7
59
7
6
71
6
71
6
7
61
71
61
71
61
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
61
71
61
71
61
72
61
72
6
72
6
72
6
72
6
72
59
73
59
72
58
73
58
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58
73
57
74
57
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56
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56
75
56
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55
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55
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55
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55
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54
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54
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54
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54
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54
78
54
78
55
78
55
79
55
79
55
79
55
8
55
8
56
8
56
8
57
81
57
81
57
82
58
82
58
82
59
82
59
82
59
82
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
61
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
59
82
59
82
58
82
58
82
57
82
56
82
55
81
55
81
54
8
53
8
52
79
51
79
5
78
49
78
49
77
48
77
47
76
46
76
45
75
45
75
44
74
43
73
42
73
42
72
41
71
41
7
4
7
4
68
4
68
39
67
39
66
39
65
39
64
38
63
39
62
39
61
39
61
39
6
39
58
39
58
4
57
4
56
4
55
4
54
41
53
41
52
42
51
42
5
42
49
43
48
43
47
44
46
44
45
44
44
45
43
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42
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41
46
4
46
39
46
38
46
37
47
36
47
35
47
35
47
34
47
33
47
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47
31
47
31
47
3
47
29
47
28
46
27
46
27
46
26
46
25
46
24
45
24
45
23
45
22
45
22
45
21
44
2
44
2
44
19
44
19
44
18
44
17
44
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43
16
44
15
44
15
44
14
44
14
44
14
44
13
44
12
44
12
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
1
44
1
45
09
44
09
44
09
45
08
45
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45
08
45
07
45
07
44
07
44
07
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07
44
07
44
07
44
06
43
06
43
06
42
06
42
06
41
06
41
06
4
06
4
05
39
05
38
06
38
06
37
06
36
05
36
05
35
06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
Jul-01 Jul-01
Jul-02 Jul-02
Jul-03 Jul-03
Jul-04 Jul-04
Jul-05 Jul-05
Jul-06 Jul-06
Jul-07 Jul-07
Jul-08 Jul-08
Jul-09 Jul-09
Jul-10 Jul-10
Jul-11 Jul-11
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Page 22: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

US Rice Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20

Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70

Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23

Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
05
29
05
28
05
28
05
27
05
27
05
26
05
25
05
25
05
24
05
24
05
24
05
23
05
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05
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05
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05
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05
22
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05
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05
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22
05
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05
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05
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23
06
24
05
24
05
24
05
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06
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06
25
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06
25
06
26
07
26
07
27
08
27
08
27
08
28
08
28
09
28
09
29
09
29
1
29
1
3
11
3
11
3
12
31
12
31
13
32
13
32
13
33
14
33
14
34
15
34
16
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36
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18
38
18
39
19
39
2
4
2
41
21
42
22
43
22
44
22
45
23
46
24
47
24
48
25
48
26
49
26
5
27
51
28
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28
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29
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29
54
3
55
31
56
31
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32
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4
59
41
59
41
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42
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57
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55
48
55
48
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49
53
5
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51
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52
51
52
5
53
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49
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48
55
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56
47
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46
58
46
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45
59
45
6
44
61
44
61
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62
44
62
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64
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44
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45
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46
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47
68
48
69
48
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49
69
5
69
51
7
52
7
52
7
53
7
54
7
55
7
56
7
56
7
57
71
57
71
58
7
59
7
6
71
6
71
6
7
61
71
61
71
61
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62
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62
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62
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71
62
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6
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6
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6
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6
72
59
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57
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55
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55
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55
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54
78
54
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55
78
55
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55
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55
79
55
8
55
8
56
8
56
8
57
81
57
81
57
82
58
82
58
82
59
82
59
82
59
82
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
61
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
59
82
59
82
58
82
58
82
57
82
56
82
55
81
55
81
54
8
53
8
52
79
51
79
5
78
49
78
49
77
48
77
47
76
46
76
45
75
45
75
44
74
43
73
42
73
42
72
41
71
41
7
4
7
4
68
4
68
39
67
39
66
39
65
39
64
38
63
39
62
39
61
39
61
39
6
39
58
39
58
4
57
4
56
4
55
4
54
41
53
41
52
42
51
42
5
42
49
43
48
43
47
44
46
44
45
44
44
45
43
45
42
46
41
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4
46
39
46
38
46
37
47
36
47
35
47
35
47
34
47
33
47
32
47
31
47
31
47
3
47
29
47
28
46
27
46
27
46
26
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25
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24
45
24
45
23
45
22
45
22
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21
44
2
44
2
44
19
44
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44
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44
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43
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44
15
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44
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12
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11
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11
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11
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11
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1
44
1
45
09
44
09
44
09
45
08
45
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45
08
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45
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44
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07
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43
06
43
06
42
06
42
06
41
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41
06
4
06
4
05
39
05
38
06
38
06
37
06
36
05
36
05
35
06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
Jul-01 Jul-01
Jul-02 Jul-02
Jul-03 Jul-03
Jul-04 Jul-04
Jul-05 Jul-05
Jul-06 Jul-06
Jul-07 Jul-07
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Page 23: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

World Corn Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143

Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11

-- No change

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
05
29
05
28
05
28
05
27
05
27
05
26
05
25
05
25
05
24
05
24
05
24
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
22
05
22
05
22
05
22
05
22
05
22
05
22
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
23
06
23
06
24
05
24
05
24
05
24
06
25
06
25
06
25
06
25
06
26
07
26
07
27
08
27
08
27
08
28
08
28
09
28
09
29
09
29
1
29
1
3
11
3
11
3
12
31
12
31
13
32
13
32
13
33
14
33
14
34
15
34
16
35
16
36
17
37
17
37
18
38
18
39
19
39
2
4
2
41
21
42
22
43
22
44
22
45
23
46
24
47
24
48
25
48
26
49
26
5
27
51
28
52
28
53
29
53
29
54
3
55
31
56
31
56
32
57
33
57
33
58
34
58
35
58
36
59
36
59
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59
38
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38
59
39
59
4
59
41
59
41
58
42
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57
45
57
45
56
46
56
47
55
48
55
48
54
49
53
5
52
51
52
52
51
52
5
53
49
54
49
55
48
55
47
56
47
57
46
58
46
59
45
59
45
6
44
61
44
61
44
62
44
62
43
63
43
64
43
64
43
65
43
65
44
66
44
66
44
66
45
67
45
68
46
68
46
68
47
68
48
69
48
69
49
69
5
69
51
7
52
7
52
7
53
7
54
7
55
7
56
7
56
7
57
71
57
71
58
7
59
7
6
71
6
71
6
7
61
71
61
71
61
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
61
71
61
71
61
72
61
72
6
72
6
72
6
72
6
72
59
73
59
72
58
73
58
73
58
73
57
74
57
74
56
74
56
75
56
75
55
75
55
75
55
76
55
76
54
76
54
76
54
77
54
77
54
77
54
78
54
78
55
78
55
79
55
79
55
79
55
8
55
8
56
8
56
8
57
81
57
81
57
82
58
82
58
82
59
82
59
82
59
82
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
61
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
59
82
59
82
58
82
58
82
57
82
56
82
55
81
55
81
54
8
53
8
52
79
51
79
5
78
49
78
49
77
48
77
47
76
46
76
45
75
45
75
44
74
43
73
42
73
42
72
41
71
41
7
4
7
4
68
4
68
39
67
39
66
39
65
39
64
38
63
39
62
39
61
39
61
39
6
39
58
39
58
4
57
4
56
4
55
4
54
41
53
41
52
42
51
42
5
42
49
43
48
43
47
44
46
44
45
44
44
45
43
45
42
46
41
46
4
46
39
46
38
46
37
47
36
47
35
47
35
47
34
47
33
47
32
47
31
47
31
47
3
47
29
47
28
46
27
46
27
46
26
46
25
46
24
45
24
45
23
45
22
45
22
45
21
44
2
44
2
44
19
44
19
44
18
44
17
44
17
43
16
44
15
44
15
44
14
44
14
44
14
44
13
44
12
44
12
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
1
44
1
45
09
44
09
44
09
45
08
45
08
45
08
45
07
45
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
06
43
06
43
06
42
06
42
06
41
06
41
06
4
06
4
05
39
05
38
06
38
06
37
06
36
05
36
05
35
06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
Jul-01 Jul-01
Jul-02 Jul-02
Jul-03 Jul-03
Jul-04 Jul-04
Jul-05 Jul-05
Jul-06 Jul-06
Jul-07 Jul-07
Jul-08 Jul-08
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Sep-08 Sep-08
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Page 24: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

abc

de

f

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

RoraimaAmapa

Acre

Brazil Corn (Second Crop)

Major

Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)

IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE

a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro

Cr Subtropical Rain

Aw Tropical wet and dry

Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers

1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC

Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

PlantHarvest

Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
05
29
05
28
05
28
05
27
05
27
05
26
05
25
05
25
05
24
05
24
05
24
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
22
05
22
05
22
05
22
05
22
05
22
05
22
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
23
05
23
06
23
06
24
05
24
05
24
05
24
06
25
06
25
06
25
06
25
06
26
07
26
07
27
08
27
08
27
08
28
08
28
09
28
09
29
09
29
1
29
1
3
11
3
11
3
12
31
12
31
13
32
13
32
13
33
14
33
14
34
15
34
16
35
16
36
17
37
17
37
18
38
18
39
19
39
2
4
2
41
21
42
22
43
22
44
22
45
23
46
24
47
24
48
25
48
26
49
26
5
27
51
28
52
28
53
29
53
29
54
3
55
31
56
31
56
32
57
33
57
33
58
34
58
35
58
36
59
36
59
37
59
38
59
38
59
39
59
4
59
41
59
41
58
42
58
43
58
44
57
45
57
45
56
46
56
47
55
48
55
48
54
49
53
5
52
51
52
52
51
52
5
53
49
54
49
55
48
55
47
56
47
57
46
58
46
59
45
59
45
6
44
61
44
61
44
62
44
62
43
63
43
64
43
64
43
65
43
65
44
66
44
66
44
66
45
67
45
68
46
68
46
68
47
68
48
69
48
69
49
69
5
69
51
7
52
7
52
7
53
7
54
7
55
7
56
7
56
7
57
71
57
71
58
7
59
7
6
71
6
71
6
7
61
71
61
71
61
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
62
71
61
71
61
71
61
72
61
72
6
72
6
72
6
72
6
72
59
73
59
72
58
73
58
73
58
73
57
74
57
74
56
74
56
75
56
75
55
75
55
75
55
76
55
76
54
76
54
76
54
77
54
77
54
77
54
78
54
78
55
78
55
79
55
79
55
79
55
8
55
8
56
8
56
8
57
81
57
81
57
82
58
82
58
82
59
82
59
82
59
82
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
61
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
6
83
59
82
59
82
58
82
58
82
57
82
56
82
55
81
55
81
54
8
53
8
52
79
51
79
5
78
49
78
49
77
48
77
47
76
46
76
45
75
45
75
44
74
43
73
42
73
42
72
41
71
41
7
4
7
4
68
4
68
39
67
39
66
39
65
39
64
38
63
39
62
39
61
39
61
39
6
39
58
39
58
4
57
4
56
4
55
4
54
41
53
41
52
42
51
42
5
42
49
43
48
43
47
44
46
44
45
44
44
45
43
45
42
46
41
46
4
46
39
46
38
46
37
47
36
47
35
47
35
47
34
47
33
47
32
47
31
47
31
47
3
47
29
47
28
46
27
46
27
46
26
46
25
46
24
45
24
45
23
45
22
45
22
45
21
44
2
44
2
44
19
44
19
44
18
44
17
44
17
43
16
44
15
44
15
44
14
44
14
44
14
44
13
44
12
44
12
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
11
44
1
44
1
45
09
44
09
44
09
45
08
45
08
45
08
45
07
45
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
07
44
06
43
06
43
06
42
06
42
06
41
06
41
06
4
06
4
05
39
05
38
06
38
06
37
06
36
05
36
05
35
06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
Jul-01 Jul-01
Jul-02 Jul-02
Jul-03 Jul-03
Jul-04 Jul-04
Jul-05 Jul-05
Jul-06 Jul-06
Jul-07 Jul-07
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Aug-24 Aug-24
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Sep-01 Sep-01
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Page 25: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
05
29
05
28
05
28
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27
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1
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1
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11
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3
12
31
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8
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81
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8
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06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
Jul-01 Jul-01
Jul-02 Jul-02
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Page 26: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Chart4

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
34
05
33
05
33
05
32
05
31
06
3
05
3
05
29
05
28
05
28
05
27
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1
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1
3
11
3
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3
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31
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2
4
2
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21
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5
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3
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4
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4
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39
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38
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38
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37
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36
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36
05
35
06

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
Jul-01 Jul-01
Jul-02 Jul-02
Jul-03 Jul-03
Jul-04 Jul-04
Jul-05 Jul-05
Jul-06 Jul-06
Jul-07 Jul-07
Jul-08 Jul-08
Jul-09 Jul-09
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Page 27: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Rainfall normals

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Cumulative Daily
Parana MT RGDS Parana MT
Jul-01 2764 0 7088 34 05
Jul-02 5128 0 12232 33 05
Jul-03 86 0952 18532 33 05
Jul-04 11196 2116 21512 32 05
Jul-05 12908 214 25204 31 06
Jul-06 15308 246 31972 3 05
Jul-07 19736 246 38674 3 05
Jul-08 23852 2464 4448 29 05
Jul-09 29252 3412 5054 28 05
Jul-10 32968 3748 55088 28 05
Jul-11 352 384 60272 27 05
Jul-12 37316 392 61724 27 05
Jul-13 38576 3932 62328 26 05
Jul-14 38684 396 63566 25 05
Jul-15 39676 3976 66248 25 05
Jul-16 44864 3976 72016 24 05
Jul-17 4847 3976 76014 24 05
Jul-18 5265 4128 80946 24 05
Jul-19 56222 4228 86874 23 05
Jul-20 58754 456 92074 23 05
Jul-21 62098 4616 95112 23 05
Jul-22 63482 47 98508 23 05
Jul-23 66322 6736 10102 23 05
Jul-24 66826 6868 102116 22 05
Jul-25 68194 7008 104668 22 05
Jul-26 69974 7432 10911 22 05
Jul-27 72834 7488 113962 22 05
Jul-28 75074 7568 118294 22 05
Jul-29 76562 7608 124178 22 05
Jul-30 78202 7628 129238 22 05
Jul-31 80654 8448 135082 23 05
Aug-01 84138 9236 140582 23 05
Aug-02 86938 9384 144806 23 05
Aug-03 88686 9452 150098 23 05
Aug-04 90358 996 155774 23 06
Aug-05 92794 11416 158934 23 06
Aug-06 9575 12692 162478 24 05
Aug-07 98422 127 167014 24 05
Aug-08 100086 12704 170066 24 05
Aug-09 102978 12704 177274 24 06
Aug-10 105066 1304 180992 25 06
Aug-11 106538 1312 18366 25 06
Aug-12 108098 13508 185076 25 06
Aug-13 108986 13644 186364 25 06
Aug-14 111482 13908 18984 26 07
Aug-15 11377 15204 195176 26 07
Aug-16 117674 1592 201236 27 08
Aug-17 11985 1596 20416 27 08
Aug-18 123498 16052 208836 27 08
Aug-19 12841 1614 211548 28 08
Aug-20 13183 16564 21698 28 09
Aug-21 135826 17052 221748 28 09
Aug-22 138234 17196 223168 29 09
Aug-23 139438 18948 225216 29 1
Aug-24 14061 19588 228608 29 1
Aug-25 143082 21084 231288 3 11
Aug-26 144454 22012 235172 3 11
Aug-27 149278 22012 238864 3 12
Aug-28 15179 22856 24076 31 12
Aug-29 153774 24556 243712 31 13
Aug-30 154746 25356 246228 32 13
Aug-31 158766 26432 251112 32 13
Sep-01 161398 28168 255196 33 14
Sep-02 16531 30132 257996 33 14
Sep-03 167078 30308 259736 34 15
Sep-04 17003 30388 263592 34 16
Sep-05 173546 30768 26666 35 16
Sep-06 175398 3148 268684 36 17
Sep-07 181814 3268 272 37 17
Sep-08 187614 36846 277494 37 18
Sep-09 191406 38834 281182 38 18
Sep-10 192502 4009 284174 39 19
Sep-11 193486 41462 292254 39 2
Sep-12 199146 42282 302174 4 2
Sep-13 205058 44022 308424 41 21
Sep-14 211134 45642 31666 42 22
Sep-15 218042 4695 325528 43 22
Sep-16 221954 49078 330032 44 22
Sep-17 224018 49926 332248 45 23
Sep-18 228086 50494 340216 46 24
Sep-19 232194 53954 34878 47 24
Sep-20 23891 54818 355518 48 25
Sep-21 240914 56926 361376 48 26
Sep-22 244254 58866 365848 49 26
Sep-23 248926 60538 37564 5 27
Sep-24 256398 6307 389776 51 28
Sep-25 26425 65454 395308 52 28
Sep-26 268946 69902 40004 53 29
Sep-27 27237 70662 4038 53 29
Sep-28 277442 72082 407884 54 3
Sep-29 284522 76594 413128 55 31
Sep-30 290042 81582 418636 56 31
Oct-01 299106 84374 427364 56 32
Oct-02 305186 8773 431952 57 33
Oct-03 308186 89546 436956 57 33
Oct-04 31191 94862 442232 58 34
Oct-05 315982 9665 452052 58 35
Oct-06 322018 100354 4593 58 36
Oct-07 32445 103338 461674 59 36
Oct-08 330414 10633 46959 59 37
Oct-09 33641 10839 478896 59 38
Oct-10 342482 112878 4864 59 38
Oct-11 349454 115038 49178 59 39
Oct-12 35571 11893 498376 59 4
Oct-13 362234 123062 50792 59 41
Oct-14 367638 126802 513484 59 41
Oct-15 369866 129274 519524 58 42
Oct-16 375386 13339 528236 58 43
Oct-17 383966 13761 539512 58 44
Oct-18 388114 141006 54398 57 45
Oct-19 39491 146666 547548 57 45
Oct-20 401666 150358 554624 56 46
Oct-21 406878 153806 560316 56 47
Oct-22 411594 157198 563256 55 48
Oct-23 414694 163434 566624 55 48
Oct-24 41811 168974 571808 54 49
Oct-25 424658 173138 577804 53 5
Oct-26 433038 178442 585308 52 51
Oct-27 442146 18707 5891 52 52
Oct-28 444998 192174 592184 51 52
Oct-29 447778 195098 59562 5 53
Oct-30 449114 202238 599922 49 54
Oct-31 453102 207962 606102 49 55
Nov-01 460738 21235 611414 48 55
Nov-02 46535 217874 616194 47 56
Nov-03 471222 224532 620408 47 57
Nov-04 47721 229184 626328 46 58
Nov-05 481826 236736 63376 46 59
Nov-06 490546 240048 643056 45 59
Nov-07 493758 244132 645724 45 6
Nov-08 49723 248816 650184 44 61
Nov-09 500526 255364 654412 44 61
Nov-10 505182 26546 65976 44 62
Nov-11 509178 271336 664348 44 62
Nov-12 513334 276676 66896 43 63
Nov-13 519854 282156 675124 43 64
Nov-14 52521 28843 678284 43 64
Nov-15 53069 292758 680652 43 65
Nov-16 533158 304166 684364 43 65
Nov-17 537386 30969 68864 44 66
Nov-18 54063 31615 693612 44 66
Nov-19 54451 320838 697756 44 66
Nov-20 548162 331762 699288 45 67
Nov-21 552446 337868 702032 45 68
Nov-22 556582 343624 703216 46 68
Nov-23 558166 35038 706056 46 68
Nov-24 561802 35358 710 47 68
Nov-25 568802 360124 716752 48 69
Nov-26 574546 364332 720672 48 69
Nov-27 57893 36952 724824 49 69
Nov-28 582814 377852 729172 5 69
Nov-29 58561 388264 730416 51 7
Nov-30 588422 396364 732412 52 7
Dec-01 591438 407728 735704 52 7
Dec-02 594274 414648 738192 53 7
Dec-03 597002 42232 740312 54 7
Dec-04 601042 427388 743156 55 7
Dec-05 605394 43246 750432 56 7
Dec-06 610078 438292 75839 56 7
Dec-07 617094 447072 763426 57 71
Dec-08 621458 45366 766248 57 71
Dec-09 623962 460588 7684 58 7
Dec-10 63095 46921 771594 59 7
Dec-11 635566 481482 775878 6 71
Dec-12 642502 48885 78275 6 71
Dec-13 649742 499602 78785 6 7
Dec-14 65815 509698 791862 61 71
Dec-15 662126 515178 797586 61 71
Dec-16 667966 522814 80215 61 71
Dec-17 673974 529578 810014 62 71
Dec-18 676898 537354 81391 62 71
Dec-19 680222 544574 815174 62 71
Dec-20 684598 55039 82225 62 71
Dec-21 689722 556622 82803 62 71
Dec-22 697602 560194 832886 62 71
Dec-23 70129 567118 838426 61 71
Dec-24 70669 573266 846136 61 71
Dec-25 708366 58053 848 61 72
Dec-26 710446 588766 852876 61 72
Dec-27 713818 595826 855604 6 72
Dec-28 71879 60375 860756 6 72
Dec-29 727414 610454 864652 6 72
Dec-30 733598 617218 871628 6 72
Dec-31 739248 626332 875934 59 73
Jan-01 743224 635558 87995 59 72
Jan-02 745184 64569 882542 58 73
Jan-03 749496 653898 885678 58 73
Jan-04 753786 664308 88883 58 73
Jan-05 758918 673588 893222 57 74
Jan-06 762998 685356 896982 57 74
Jan-07 766544 6916 901356 56 74
Jan-08 768952 700506 907956 56 75
Jan-09 77438 710522 913684 56 75
Jan-10 781904 718902 919052 55 75
Jan-11 788208 726078 925492 55 75
Jan-12 79456 735638 929744 55 76
Jan-13 800452 74447 93248 55 76
Jan-14 804716 753262 939044 54 76
Jan-15 810692 764854 947368 54 76
Jan-16 815796 773346 95577 54 77
Jan-17 82062 781266 96295 54 77
Jan-18 82456 788226 966778 54 77
Jan-19 829312 79381 969044 54 78
Jan-20 83652 800718 976852 54 78
Jan-21 840784 809782 980462 55 78
Jan-22 84686 815818 984158 55 79
Jan-23 852196 824174 988466 55 79
Jan-24 85726 831706 99199 55 79
Jan-25 866372 83847 100142 55 8
Jan-26 872064 846934 100761 55 8
Jan-27 878372 85433 101541 56 8
Jan-28 883588 85997 101846 56 8
Jan-29 889244 867398 102653 57 81
Jan-30 896468 876534 103566 57 81
Jan-31 90484 883646 10443 57 82
Feb-01 915208 891514 105294 58 82
Feb-02 921476 90037 106103 58 82
Feb-03 927964 909646 106442 59 82
Feb-04 93286 918026 107032 59 82
Feb-05 937408 928946 107763 59 82
Feb-06 94201 937412 108254 6 83
Feb-07 947086 952884 108552 6 83
Feb-08 952246 96228 109098 6 83
Feb-09 955886 968904 109558 6 83
Feb-10 96133 9754 110469 61 83
Feb-11 96697 981996 110991 6 83
Feb-12 969426 992592 111242 6 83
Feb-13 97417 999652 111567 6 83
Feb-14 980506 100768 112062 6 83
Feb-15 985954 101555 112725 6 83
Feb-16 99267 102422 1134 6 83
Feb-17 997258 103353 113994 6 83
Feb-18 100341 104026 114302 59 82
Feb-19 100826 104853 11448 59 82
Feb-20 10135 105757 115195 58 82
Feb-21 101997 106745 115619 58 82
Feb-22 102626 107418 115978 57 82
Feb-23 103088 108182 116461 56 82
Feb-24 103827 108792 117726 55 81
Feb-25 104473 10951 118573 55 81
Feb-26 104847 110097 119134 54 8
Feb-27 105214 110854 119655 53 8
Feb-28 105754 111584 119994 52 79
Mar-01 106131 112306 12051 51 79
Mar-02 106455 11297 12082 5 78
Mar-03 106966 113829 121208 49 78
Mar-04 107273 114705 121571 49 77
Mar-05 107551 115385 122014 48 77
Mar-06 107835 116451 122605 47 76
Mar-07 108221 117131 123162 46 76
Mar-08 108449 117625 123525 45 75
Mar-09 108706 118251 123844 45 75
Mar-10 109109 118828 124456 44 74
Mar-11 109385 119645 124956 43 73
Mar-12 109721 120487 125389 42 73
Mar-13 110119 121134 125913 42 72
Mar-14 110432 122035 126473 41 71
Mar-15 11068 122842 126772 41 7
Mar-16 110909 123543 127254 4 7
Mar-17 111538 124458 127636 4 68
Mar-18 112072 125557 128608 4 68
Mar-19 112325 126969 128885 39 67
Mar-20 112907 127667 129129 39 66
Mar-21 113171 128444 12943 39 65
Mar-22 113633 129037 129641 39 64
Mar-23 113946 129689 130187 38 63
Mar-24 114494 130371 130687 39 62
Mar-25 114798 13106 13116 39 61
Mar-26 115109 131501 131718 39 61
Mar-27 1155 132129 132139 39 6
Mar-28 115791 132728 132677 39 58
Mar-29 116153 133382 133207 39 58
Mar-30 116608 134038 133786 4 57
Mar-31 116879 134388 134263 4 56
Apr-01 117448 13481 135173 4 55
Apr-02 117731 135548 135867 4 54
Apr-03 117943 136158 136402 41 53
Apr-04 118451 136585 137352 41 52
Apr-05 118751 136883 137983 42 51
Apr-06 118931 137352 138669 42 5
Apr-07 119668 137681 139307 42 49
Apr-08 120095 137925 139919 43 48
Apr-09 120417 138207 140221 43 47
Apr-10 120927 138485 140749 44 46
Apr-11 121133 138983 141135 44 45
Apr-12 121383 139608 141819 44 44
Apr-13 122001 14036 142518 45 43
Apr-14 122484 140746 143004 45 42
Apr-15 123102 14132 143888 46 41
Apr-16 123593 141693 144598 46 4
Apr-17 124211 142326 14511 46 39
Apr-18 124985 142663 145816 46 38
Apr-19 125699 143123 146355 46 37
Apr-20 126363 143359 146813 47 36
Apr-21 126625 143631 14718 47 35
Apr-22 126848 143999 147422 47 35
Apr-23 127155 144221 14801 47 34
Apr-24 127786 144374 148823 47 33
Apr-25 128226 144671 149713 47 32
Apr-26 128702 144918 150257 47 31
Apr-27 128934 145129 150715 47 31
Apr-28 12922 145279 151235 47 3
Apr-29 129737 145416 151968 47 29
Apr-30 130073 145645 152481 47 28
May-01 130327 145749 152759 46 27
May-02 130623 145967 153177 46 27
May-03 131046 146091 153532 46 26
May-04 131572 14629 154097 46 25
May-05 131847 146391 154588 46 24
May-06 132538 146643 154808 45 24
May-07 132866 146852 155413 45 23
May-08 13334 146912 15599 45 22
May-09 133673 147045 156414 45 22
May-10 134007 147091 15677 45 21
May-11 134298 147144 157185 44 2
May-12 13464 147175 157683 44 2
May-13 135307 147252 158313 44 19
May-14 135985 147549 158803 44 19
May-15 13632 147685 15911 44 18
May-16 136885 147977 159807 44 17
May-17 137428 148068 160351 44 17
May-18 138029 148179 160972 43 16
May-19 138529 148214 161583 44 15
May-20 139212 148227 162319 44 15
May-21 140112 148465 163037 44 14
May-22 140769 148569 163618 44 14
May-23 141341 148687 164089 44 14
May-24 141704 148804 164369 44 13
May-25 142195 148864 164796 44 12
May-26 142465 148911 165278 44 12
May-27 142872 149025 166129 44 11
May-28 143259 149056 16711 44 11
May-29 143676 149113 167891 44 11
May-30 1442 149161 168626 44 11
May-31 144545 149393 169258 44 1
Jun-01 144785 149493 169409 44 1
Jun-02 144969 149569 169717 45 09
Jun-03 145211 149575 170452 44 09
Jun-04 145532 149647 170986 44 09
Jun-05 146458 14967 171959 45 08
Jun-06 147033 149791 172742 45 08
Jun-07 147535 149896 173169 45 08
Jun-08 147838 149911 173672 45 07
Jun-09 148111 149915 174203 45 07
Jun-10 148302 149975 174903 44 07
Jun-11 148548 149975 175279 44 07
Jun-12 148795 149975 175763 44 07
Jun-13 149169 149975 176279 44 07
Jun-14 149886 149981 176859 44 07
Jun-15 150168 150142 17703 44 06
Jun-16 150462 150186 177623 43 06
Jun-17 150731 15021 178343 43 06
Jun-18 151447 150243 178887 42 06
Jun-19 152109 150247 179668 42 06
Jun-20 152758 150287 179981 41 06
Jun-21 153139 150315 180324 41 06
Jun-22 153321 150421 180658 4 06
Jun-23 153536 150428 181094 4 05
Jun-24 154122 150543 181596 39 05
Jun-25 154487 15062 181875 38 06
Jun-26 154764 150696 182241 38 06
Jun-27 15517 150702 182588 37 06
Jun-28 155453 15071 182874 36 05
Jun-29 155786 150817 183159 36 05
Jun-30 15612 150901 183853 35 06
Page 28: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Rainfall normals

Parana
MT
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 29: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 30: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 31: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2009

2018

May 10 2018

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 32: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

April 1- 30 2018SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS Prelim)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Source CHIRPSUCSB

MunicipalitiesProducing 2nd corngt1000 tons (yellow)gt100000 tons (red)

Drought is most severe in southern portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranaacute NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates vegetative health (density and vigor) that is below last year and declining since mid-April in the southern second-crop corn production

of normal

April 23-308-Day MODIS NDVI 2018 Difference from 2017

Source CHIRPSUCSB

May 10 2018

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 33: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 20

of Normal Precipitation22

Last Day of Significant Rain

Average

201718

~27 filling as of April 20(similar to last year - IMEA)

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 34: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

March 31

of Normal Precipitation21

Last Day of Significant Rain

May 10 2018

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 35: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Average

201718

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 2 of Normal Precipitation

13 Last Day of

Significant Rain

April 23 RatingsGood 93

Average 7

Veg 58Flower-Fill 41

(DERAL)

May 7 RatingsGood 43

Average 44Poor 13

Veg 16Flower-Fill 82

(DERAL)

DeteriorationNoted

May 10 2018

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2008

200

9

2009

201

0

2010

201

1

2011

201

2

2012

201

3

2013

201

4

2014

201

5

2015

201

6

2016

201

7

2017

201

8

2018

201

9f

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 36: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

000

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10000

20000

30000

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201

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201

9f

MT

HA

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sand

Hec

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s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mtha)

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Production reduced 5 due to drought Area unchanged

Yield down 5to 509 mtha

Source USDA FAS PSD httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonline

May 10 2018

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

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04

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05

2005

06

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07

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16

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17

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18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

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20000

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2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 37: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2275 -34 1948 -327Production 10367 06 10561 194Total Supply 12642 -28 12509 -133

Feed use 6487 -14 6656 169Total use 10693 01 10918 224

Trade 1511 -15 1580 69Ending Stocks 1948 -29 1591 -357

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 38: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

US Corn Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 902 -- 880 -21Harvested area (million acres) 827 -- 807 -20Yield (bushels per acre) 1766 -- 1740 -26

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2293 -- 2182 -111Production 14604 -- 14040 -564Imports 50 -- 50 0Total supply 16947 -- 16272 -675

Feed and residual 5500 -- 5375 -125Food seed and industrial 7040 -- 7115 75Ethanol 5575 -- 5625 50Domestic use 12540 -- 12490 -50

Exports 2225 -- 2100 -125Total use 14765 -- 14590 -175

Ending stocks 2182 -- 1682 -500----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 148 -- 115 -32

Average market price 325355 005 330430 040-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 39: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

World Soybean Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 3367 19 3545 178United States 1195 -- 1165 -30

Foreign 2172 19 2381 209Argentina 390 -10 560 170Brazil 1170 20 1170 --Paraguay 100 08 98 -02Canada 80 -- 78 -02India 90 -- 108 18China 142 -- 141 -01

-- No change

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 40: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

36500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1997

98

1998

99

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

2005

06

2006

07

2007

08

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

201

819

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean Area and 1st-crop Corn Area

1st-crop Corn SoybeansSource CONAB

USDA Forecast

May 10 2018

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 41: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2008

09

2009

10

2010

11

2011

12

2012

13

2013

14

2014

15

2015

16

2016

17

2017

18

2018

19F

MT

HA

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Soybeans

Area Production YieldSource USDAFASPSD

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

201819 ForecastAREA 365 mha (RECORD)YIELD 321 mtha PROD 1170 mmt (equal to previous yearrsquos RECORD)

May 10 2018

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 42: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 964 -03 922 -42Production 3367 19 3545 178Total Supply 4331 16 4467 136

Feed use 2994 02 3133 139Total use 3423 03 3577 154

Trade 1513 09 1618 106Ending Stocks 922 14 867 -55

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 617 -- 516 -100

ImportsChina 970 -- 1030 60

From all sources

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 43: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

World Soybean Export Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Perc

ent o

f Wor

ld T

otal

ArgentinaBrazilUnited States

May 10 2018

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 44: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

US Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 901 -- 890 -12Harvested area (million acres) 895 -- 882 -13Yield (bushels per acre) 491 -- 485 -05

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 302 -- 530 229Production 4392 -- 4280 -112Imports 25 -- 25 0Total supply 4718 -- 4835 117

Crush 1990 20 1995 5Seed and Residual 133 -- 135 2Domestic use 2123 20 2130 7

Exports 2065 -- 2290 225Total use 4188 20 4420 232

Ending stocks 530 -20 415 -115----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 127 -05 94 -33

Average market price 935 005 8751125 065-- No change

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 45: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

May 10 2018

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 46: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

May 10 2018

Winter featured mostly near- to above-normal precipitation

everywhere but southern Poland and immediate environs

Wet

FavorableDry

Wet

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 47: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

A hard freeze posed a threat to exposed winter rapeseed in early March across

northeastern Europe

May 10 2018

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 48: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

In nw Poland there were 5 days of damaging freezes without sufficient

snow cover

Stage-Specific Freeze Damage

Threshold

May 10 2018

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 49: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

TempPcp Critical

Early developmental delays across the rest of Europe have been erased by recent warmth

May 10 2018

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 50: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Over the past 60 days the primary area of concern extends from southern Germany into southern Poland

where rapeseed is early- to mid-stage flowering

Driest Areas

May 10 2018

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 51: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

European Union Rapeseed Yield and Production

European Union Rapeseed Area Harvested

Area Yield and Production Statistics

Source USDA PSD

May 10 2018

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 52: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

World Cotton Production

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------World 1224 03 1212 -12United States 209 -01 195 -14

Foreign 1015 04 1017 02Argentina 08 -- 08 Brazil 87 -- 88 01Turkey 40 -- 43 03Australia 48 01 40 -08China 275 -- 270 -05India 285 -- 285 --Pakistan 82 -- 88 06Uzbekistan 39 03 38 -01African Franc Zone 52 52 01

-- No change Rounds to zero

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 53: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

10 May 2018 48

79

21

May 10 2018

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 54: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

In 201718 Corn area was estimated at 3545 million hectares down 18 million or 48 percent from the previous year due to drastic changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and poor farm returns

In 2014 the central government enacted policies to reduce support or direct subsidies to corn farmers in an effort to deal with high government owned stockpiles The policies resulted in the reform of government corn procurement and auction system under what is known as the Temporary Reserve Program (TRP) The TRP was aimed at encouraging farmers to shift corn area to other alternative crops including soybean rice and peanuts

net gain

May 10 2018

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 55: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Yields above trendline due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang

May 10 2018

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 56: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

201819 Corn area is forecast at 365 million hectares up 11 million or 3 percent from last year the opposite of the declining trend in the previous two seasons 2016 + 2017 due to changes in agricultural policy lower market prices and farm returns

In 2018 corn area is projected to significantly increase due to (1) higher returns compared to alternatives crops such as soybeans (2) government lsquos targeted incentives subsidies to corn processors (3) ethanol program initiatives (4) 90 percent of Chinarsquos corn is used for feed reports of rebound in feed and industrial use may also result in increased corn production

net loss

May 10 2018

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 57: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 869 01 882 13Production 1224 03 1212 -12Total Supply 2094 04 2094 Consumption 1207 04 1254 47

Trade 394 03 411 17Ending Stocks 882 -01 837 -45

AddendumChina ending stocks 410 -- 334 -76

-- No change

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 58: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr

(arrayed by rainfall)

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18 11 14 06 08 09 13 12 16 15 04 17 10 05 07

SW aband TX High Plains of normal precip Nov-Apr

abandonment of normal

Projected

May 10 2018

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 59: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

US Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Planted area (million acres) 1261 1347 086Harvested area (million acres) 1110 -025 1113 003Yield (pounds per acre) 905 16 841 -64

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 275 -- 470 195Production 2092 -011 1950 -142Imports 001 -001 001 000Total supply 2368 -011 2421 053

Mill use 335 -- 340 005Exports 1550 050 1550 000Total use 1885 050 1890 005

Unaccounted 013 -001 011 -002Ending stocks 470 -060 520 050

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 249 -39 275 26

Average market price 67006900 -- 55007500 -300-- No change Rounds to zero

------------ Cents per pound ------------

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 60: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

US Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand short tons raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 1876 -- 1901 25Production 9252 112 8981 -271Beets 5221 82 5036 -185Cane 4031 30 3945 -86

Imports 3422 -50 3365 -57TRQ 1788 -- 1355 -433Re-export 350 -50 350 0Mexico 1269 -- 1645 376High-tier 15 -- 15 0Total Supply 14551 62 14247 -304

Exports 170 20 50 -120Domestic deliveries 12480 -- 12655 175Total use 12650 20 12705 55

Ending stocks 1901 42 1542 -359----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocksuse ratio 1503 -- 1214 -289-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 61: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1002 -- 1243 241Production 5970 -80 6025 55Imports 190 20 84 -106

Total Supply 7162 -60 7353 190Domestic Use 4727 -159 4952 225Exports 1192 -155 1418 226Total use 5919 -314 6370 451

Ending stocks 1243 254 983 -260-- No change

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 62: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

US Meat Production and Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs 4403 -175 4450 047

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 1022 68 1010 -12Turkey 821 -23 875 54

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 63: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

US Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3032 -8 3140 108

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 64: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

US Milk Supply and Demand

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 2187 -04 2215 28Fat BasisImports 55 -01 55 01Commercial use 2142 -05 2166 24Exports 99 03 102 03

Skim-solid BasisImports 58 -01 58 00Commercial use 1791 -17 1811 20Exports 451 18 453 02

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 65: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

US Dairy Product Prices

May 10 2018

2018 2019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from

2018

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Class pricesClass III 1505 060 1530 025Class IV 1405 050 1420 015All milk 1645 060 1675 030

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 66: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

US Production Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1741 -- 1821 81Rice (million cwt) 1782 -- 2032 250Corn (million bushels) 14604 -- 14040 -564Sorghum (million bushels) 364 -- 343 -21Barley (million bushels) 142 -- 147 5Oats (million bushels) 49 -- 66 17Soybeans (million bushels) 4392 -- 4280 -112Soybean oil (million pounds) 22885 130 23040 155Soybean meal (thousand st) 47099 550 47250 151Cotton (million bales) 2092 -011 1950 -142Sugar (thousand st raw value 9252 112 8981 -271

Milk (billion pounds) 2187 -04 2215 28

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2722 -042 2772 050Pork 2677 -004 2761 084Broilers 4233 -002 4330 097Turkey 592 -003 597 005Total Meat 10299 -050 10536 237

-- No change

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 67: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

US Consumption Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1096 9 1147 51Rice (million cwt) 1200 -- 1220 20Corn (million bushels) 12540 -- 12490 -50Sorghum (million bushels) 125 -- 180 55Cotton (million bales) 187 -- 180 -7Oats (million bushels) 163 -- 154 -9Soybeans (million bushels) 2123 20 2130 7Soybean oil (million pounds) 20700 -100 21300 600Soybean meal (thousand st) 35000 450 35200 200Cotton (million bales) 335 -- 340 005Sugar (thousand st raw value 12480 -- 12655 175

Milk (billion pounds fat basis) 2142 -05 2166 24

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 2724 -044 2776 051Pork 2195 002 2261 066Broilers 3510 3584 074Turkey 527 -005 529 002Total Meat 9045 -048 9239 194

-- No change Rounds to zero

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 68: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

US Export Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 910 -15 925 15Rice (million cwt) 960 -- 1010 50Corn (million bushels) 2225 -- 2100 -125Sorghum (million bushels) 245 -- 165 -80Barley (million bushels) 6 -- 5 -1Soybeans (million bushels) 2065 -- 2290 225Soybean oil (million pounds) 2300 300 2100 -200Soybean meal (thousand st) 12700 200 12400 -300Cotton (million bales) 1550 050 1550 000

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3035 10 3150 115Pork 5916 16 6125 209Broilers 6938 -12 7100 162Turkey 653 8 655 2Mature Chickens 123 -2 140 17Total Meat 16672 19 17178 506

-- No change

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary
Page 69: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates...Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production. Harvested area. Production. Yield. ... 1,070 -110 Production 1,741 -- 1,821 81

Price Summary

May 10 2018

20172018 20182019

Item EstimateChange from

April 10 ForecastChange from20172018

Crops and productsWheat ($bu) 470 005 500 030Rice ($cwt) 401280 -- 1240 -020Corn ($bu) 325355 005 380 040Soybeans ($bu) 935 005 1000 065Soybean oil (centlb) 3050 -100 3150 100Soybean meal ($st) 360 10 350 -10Cotton (centlb) 006900 -- 6500 -300

LivestockSteers ($cwt) 11615 -025 11775 160Hogs ($cwt) 4403 -175 4450 047Broilers (centlb) 10217 675 10100 -117Turkeys (centlb) 8209 -225 8750 541

Dairy productsCheese 163 005 164 001Butter 228 004 228 000Nonfat dry milk 076 004 078 002Dry whey 027 002 030 003

Milk classesClass III ($cwt) 1505 060 1530 025Class IV ($cwt) 1405 050 1420 015All milk ($cwt) 1645 060 1675 030

-- No change

  • Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing AgencyEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
  • Slide Number 2
  • World Wheat Production
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • World Wheat Supply and Use
  • US Wheat Supply and Demand
  • World Rice Production
  • World Rice Supply and Use
  • US Rice Supply and Demand
  • World Corn Production
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • World Corn Supply and Use
  • US Corn Supply and Demand
  • World Soybean Production
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36
  • World Soybean Supply and Use
  • World Soybean Export Shares
  • US Soybeans Supply and Demand
  • Slide Number 40
  • Slide Number 41
  • Slide Number 42
  • Slide Number 43
  • Slide Number 44
  • Slide Number 45
  • Slide Number 46
  • World Cotton Production
  • Slide Number 48
  • Slide Number 49
  • Slide Number 50
  • Slide Number 51
  • World Cotton Supply and Demand
  • Southwest Season Abandonment Ratesand TX High Plains of Normal Rainfall Nov-Apr(arrayed by rainfall)
  • US Cotton Supply and Demand
  • US Sugar Supply and Demand
  • Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand
  • US Meat Production and Prices
  • US Meat TradeMillion Pounds
  • US Milk Supply and Demand
  • US Dairy Product Prices
  • US Production Summary
  • US Consumption Summary
  • US Export Summary
  • Price Summary

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