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Workshop recommendations: “improving the quality of GHG inventories
and projections for the LUCF sector”part 2: Projections
G. Seufert, Z. SomogyiS. Federici?
LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep. 22-23, 2005
Projections
• Up to now, no LUCF projections reported
• Workshops in all other sectors, including
Agriculture, already organized
• Mandatory and recommended parameters
under the EU-IS for forestry to be specified
Background:
LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep. 22-23, 2005
• quantitative information from nine Member States available
• ~ 8 % of total EU-15 reduction required
• = 0.7 % to close the gap of 7.0 %
1 EEA Report No 5/2004
Projected importance of sinks1
LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep. 22-23, 2005
Potentials (until 2050; Cannel, 2004)
LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep. 22-23, 2005
The European Climate Change Programme (ECCP)
ECCP was established in June 2000 to help identify the most environmentally friendly and cost-effective measures enabling the EU to meet its Kyoto target
Working groups, among others: – Forest related carbon sequestration
final report available at http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/forestrelatedsinks.htm
– Carbon sequestration in agricultural soilsfinal report available at http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/agriculturalsoils.htm
LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep. 22-23, 2005
ECCP-2 (april 2003) measures:
8% reduction of GHG by 2010 336 Mt CO2eq/yremission in 1990 = 2000technically feasible reductions in 2008 – 2012
•Energy supply• Renewable energies for Electricity (RES-E) 100-125 Mt CO2eq/yr• Bio-fuels in transport sector (RES-T) 35-40 Mt CO2eq/yr• Combined Heat & Power 65 Mt CO2eq/yr• Biofuels, Biodegradable waste 36-48 Mt CO2eq/yr• Coal-to-gas switching (liberisation of energy markets) 120 Mt CO2eq/yr
•Energy demand• Energy saving in households, tertiary sector, industry 214-259 Mt CO2eq/yr
•Transport • Inter-modal transport, Passenger cars CO2 emission reduction ???
•Agriculture and Forestry• Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils 66 Mt CO2eq/yr• Carbon sequestration in forests 33 Mt CO2eq/yr• CH4 from waste in land-fills (Land-fill Directive) 41 Mt CO2eq/yr• N2O from soils (Nitrate Directive) 12 Mt CO2eq/yr• Renewable resources for energy and material substitution 200-600 Mt CO2eq/yr
The European Climate Change Programme
LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep. 22-23, 2005
Projections
• Developing scenarios of activity data
• Due to strong influence of EU policy:
integration of EU projections with those of MS
is required
• E/R Estimation: use of models and various
factors
LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep. 22-23, 2005
Agenda/projections
• Discussion
• Minimal protocol for reporting LUCF projections including– assessment of forest strategies, – key parameters/indicators– assumptions
(based on a proposal by the organizers)
LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep. 22-23, 2005
Draft recommendations for forestry indicators
• Macroeconomic assumptions behind projections of forestry activities• Forest definitions, it must be reported both the
– UNFCCC GHG inventory forest definition and the Kyoto Protocol reporting forest definition
• Forest area, it must be reported for– Total managed forest area (specifying definition of managed area),– Total unmanaged forest area (specifying definition of unmanaged area),
• And for both the forest area (managed, unmanaged):– Forest area on organic soils,– Forest area on permafrost,
• Annual harvested forest area per type of harvest• Annual burned forest area• Annual rate of expansion of forest area (afforestation/reforestation)• Annual rate of contraction of forest area (deforestation)• It must be reported for every singular carbon pool of each forest area type:
– Carbon stocks and associated parameters for calculation– Annual rate of change of carbon stocks and associated parameters for calculation
Annex V of Implementing Provisions: Proposal for mandatory parameters forestry sector:
LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep. 22-23, 2005
Annex V recommended parameters forestry sector:
• The same mandatory parameters subdivided for forest inventory typology and/or forest species
• Use of fertilization in forest,
• Estimate of carbon release by exceptional events (storm, pests, etc)
• Use of organic soils for forest activities (forest management, afforestation, reforestation, deforestation)
• Parameters related to emissions from organic soils
• Parameters related to emissions from permafrost
Draft recommendations for forestry indicators