WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES … · 2012. 10. 16. · WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES . DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

Annual Energy Outlook 2013: Electricity Working Group Meeting 2

October 11, 2012

Electricity Working Group Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Analysis Office of Energy Analysis

WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Key changes from AEO 2012 • Projection extended to 2040

• Representation of Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) after U.S. Court of Appeals vacated Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR)

• Continued to coordinate with Survey Team and Statistics Group to:

– Update representation of planned capacity additions

– Update representation of plant retirements

• Refined representation of the Mercury and Air Toxic Standards (MATS) to include oil steam units

2 Electricity Working Group October 11, 2012


AEO 2013 Relevant Assumptions


• MATS compliance (either retrofits or retirements) begins in 2016 (assuming a one-year reprieve)

• 30 states and the District of Columbia have enforceable Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)

• Wind production tax credits (PTC) expire at the end of 2012

• Solar investment tax credit (ITC) reverts from 30% to a permanent 10% ITC in 2016

• All other renewable technology tax credits expire at the end of 2013


AEO 2013 Nuclear Power Assumptions


• Assume Vogtle, VC Summer, & Watts Bar are completed – Vogtle Units 3 & 4 (2016 & 2017 online) and Summer Units 2 & 3 (2017 & 2018

online) each have COL’s

– Watts Bar reports an online date of 2015

• Same handling of retirements and uprates as AEO 2012 – Assume 7.7GW of uprates, including the 1.2 GW reported to EIA

– Assume 7.1GW of retirements, including the 2019 retirement of Oyster Creek

• No assumed additional retirements after 2035 – Plants that reach their 60th year of operation during this time period completed

construction after the Three Mile Island incident (i.e. many safety-related retrofits have already been completed)


SAIC Infrastructure Capital Cost of New Technologies


Overnight Capital Cost (2012$/kW)

AEO 2012 New SAIC % Change

Coal Advanced PC w/o CCS $2,941 $2,934 0% Advanced PC CCS $4734 $4727 0% IGCC w/o CCS $3,330 $3,784 14% IGCC CCS $5,531 $6,599 19%

Natural Gas Conventional NGCC $1,031 $917 -11% Advanced NGCC $1,037 $1,023 -1% Advanced NGCC with CCS $2,131 $2,095 -2% Conventional CT $1,007 $973 -3% Advanced CT $689 $676 -2%

Nuclear Nuclear $5,518 $5,525 0%

Renewables Biomass $3,991 $4,114 3% MSW - Landfill Gas $8,515 $8,312 -2% Wind $2,520 $2,214 -12% Wind Offshore $6,179 $6,230 1% Solar Thermal $4,852 $5,067 4% Photovoltaic $4,918 $3,873 -21%


Preliminary Run Results based on runs of 10/04/2012



Summary Results


• Demand slightly lower throughout the forecast, although the trend is the same

• Higher coal prices than AEO 2012, while natural gas prices are slightly lower

• Overall coal plant retirements roughly the same (more reported retirements)

• Increasing use of natural gas for electric generation

• Capacity additions continue to be dominated by natural gas and renewable technologies


Annual Rate of Growth Continues to Slow

8

percent growth (3-year rolling average)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Projections

History 2012

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, (preliminary), Annual Energy Review, 2013

Electricity Working Group October 11, 2012


Annual Growth 1950s 9.8% 1960s 7.3% 1970s 4.7% 1980s 2.9% 1990s 2.4%

2000-2011 0.9% 2011-2040 0.8%

Total Electricity Sales


2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO 2013 AEO 2012 Projection History

Billion kWh

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary)


Power Sector Fuel Prices


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Coal AEO 2013 Coal AEO 2012

Natural Gas AEO 2013 Natural Gas AEO 2012

History Projection

2011$/MMBtu

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case


Coal Generation


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO 2013 AEO 2012

Billion kWh


Projection History


Generation Shares by Fuel Source for 2008, 2011, 2035, and 2040


2008 2011

Coal

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Renewable


2035 AEO2012 Reference Case

2035 AEO2013 Reference Case

2040, AEO2013 Reference Case


Coal Plant Retirements • 27.5 GW’s of retirements reported to EIA through 2021

• Additional 22 GW’s of retirements through the NEMS model

• Coal retirements and natural gas use are sensitive to several key factors, particularly electricity demand, natural gas prices and coal prices, and environmental regulations

• Slightly higher amount of capacity retired by 2035 than in AEO 2012

Electricity Working Group October 11, 2012 13


Coal Plant Retirements through 2035


27

11

22

36

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

AEO 2013 AEO 2012

Retired by NEMS Reported to EIA

Gigawatts



Coal Plant Retirements


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 AEO 2012 AEO 2013

Gigawatts



Compliance Actions in the First Year of MATS Implementation


21 30

23 6

49 58

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

AEO 2013 AEO 2012

DSI retrofits Retirements FGD installations

Gigawatts



Nuclear Generation


600

800

1000

1200

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO 2013 AEO 2012

History Projection

Billion kWh



Power Sector Fuel Prices


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Coal AEO 2013 Coal AEO 2012

Natural Gas AEO 2013 Natural Gas AEO 2012

History Projection

2011$/MMBtu



Natural Gas Generation


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO 2013 AEO 2012

Implementation of MATS

Billion kWh


History

Projection


Renewable Generation


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO 2013 AEO 2012

Billion kWh


Projection History


Renewable Generation Breakdown


299 297 312

56 50 47 136 124 146

251 194 194

110 69 44

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

AEO 2013 (2040) AEO 2013 (2035) AEO 2012 (2035) Hydro Geothermal Biomass Wind Solar

Billion kWh



Comparison of Capacity Additions through 2035 for AEO 2012 and AEO 2013


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Renewables

AEO 2013 (2035) AEO 2012 (2035)

Gigawatts


More retirements of oil-gas steam units leads to greater need for capacity


Cumulative Capacity Additions by Fuel Type, AEO2013 Reference Case

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Renewable Sources Nuclear Power Natural Gas Coal

Gigawatts

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary)




Cumulative electricity generating capacity additions, 2012-2035 and 2012-2040

24

Gigawatts

9 8 12

214 167 131

11

6 9

106

68 59

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

AEO2013: 2012-2040 AEO2013: 2012-2035 AEO2012: 2012-2035

Coal Natural Gas/Oil Nuclear Renewables/Other

249 211

340


Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012

CO2 Emissions


1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO 2013 AEO 2012

Million metric tons


Projection Historical


Contacts • J. Alan Beamon, Director, Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear,

and Renewables Analysis; (202) 586-2025; [email protected]

• Jim Diefenderfer, Team Leader, Electricity Analysis Team, Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Analysis; (202) 586-2432; [email protected]

• Electricity Analysis Team Members: – Jeff Jones (202) 586-2038 Mike Leff (202) 586-1297 – Laura Martin (202) 586-1494 Marie Rinkoski Spangler (202) 586-2446 – Lori Aniti (202) 586-2867 Carrie Milton (202) 586-1130


mailto:[email protected]�


For more information

27

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EIA Information Center email: [email protected]


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WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES … · 2012. 10. 16. · WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES . DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE