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Smerud
Medical Research
Oil & EnergyMarkets
PetroleumFinanceInsurance Health Marine
Common challenges to statistical science
much data from different sources, but often few critical ones
more complex data, because we measure more in depth
complex systems to be modeled, with structured dependencies
the easy part is done, necessary to discover “second order effects”
evidence-based decision making, risk evaluation is required
computationally intensive procedures
Common challenges to statistical science
Statistical methods
We shall produce the next generation of statistical methodology for innovation
Partners
Cutting-edge innovation projects
Cutting-edge novel statistics
• Based on our scientific competence, experience, traditions …
• we shall built strong, interdisciplinary, ambitious teams, …
• planning together and producing top research results, …
• fundamentally needed to solve strategic innovation needs.
statistics for innovation: The largest European research centre
in applied statistics.
for the first time in the world Statistics focuses on Innovation!
A unique task force
“This research group ought to be regarded as a national treasure. Many much larger countries with much greater resources should be envious of Norway for having such a team.”
“The strengths are the high quality staff and excellent industrial commitment. This grant should secure the position of Norway as one of the leading countries in Europe in industrial statistics.”
Data integration - Complex modelsLong Predict - Tail Depend - ByCatchEventAnalysis - NetAlgebra - TotalRisk StatInsure - Commodity - SampleFish Multicompare - MissingStripes - FindOil GenomeAtlas - MetaAnalysis
• Finalise the development of a new method to estimate the total risk and the needed total capital reserves for a risk-diversified bank/financial corporation.
TotalRisk
Marked risk
Credit risk
Operational risk
OSLO TOTAL RISK MODEL
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Correlations Dependencies
DataExperts’ opinions
MetaAnalysis
• More and more clinical trials are available, assessing the efficacy of drugs.
• How to put together conclusions across published studies? A meta-analysis combines results of many clinical studies.
• How to merge published clinical studies with own precious data at patient level? We will invent new methods to merge public and private data.
LongPredict
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1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Index value, Jan 02=100
Brent Oil NWE Coal Aluminium Steel HRC FED US$ index
Long-term predictions are steering instrument. Financial time series, climate or fish abundance - there is a need to project current trends ahead in the future, maybe 5 years, possibly 20, 50!
The question is not predicting the detailed behaviour but particular structural summaries: the probability that a trend is maintained, that certain (low) levels will not be reached anymore, that a new stationary regime has been reached.
We shall develop new methods to answer these questions.
FindOil
• Understanding Exploration: where to drill next to find oil and gas?
GlobalRegionBasin Province
PlayProspect
• Develop a new methodology to guide exploration, by computing more precise probabilities of success.
SampleFish
Fish quotas are made on estimates of abundance of fish, based on data from commercial fishery, and sampling survey data. We shall improve the sampling, develop new profound mathematical models that describe the marine environment under environmental pressure, climatic change and commercial exploitation.
This will lead to a new standard for a affordable management of marine resources.
International alliances.
Training and education.
Building on our academic and corporate international contacts, we will create a truly international centre, promoting international projects and alliances that build bridges between academia, business and industry.
Industry-based research projects for master, PhD students, postdocs.
UiO international graduate training programme in (bio)statistics for innovation
Much of the improvement in human welfare over the past can be accounted for bytechnological innovation in energy, engineering, public health, nutrition, fishery, agriculture. Statistics played a role also here.
… with the aim to enhance the capability of the Norwegian economy to innovate by focusing on long-term research, forging alliances between research-intensive enterprises and prominent research groups.
A broad view of the world - the global role and responsibility of science & technology.
is aware of this role. Many partners areactive with training, education, projects and investments in the developing parts of the world.
