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Winter 2010-2011 Climate Outlook. Melissa L. Griffin Florida State Assistant Climatologist Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University. What Will El Niño/La Niña Bring…. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Winter 2010-2011 Climate OutlookWinter 2010-2011 Climate Outlook
Melissa L. Griffin
Florida State Assistant Climatologist
Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies
The Florida State University
What Will El Niño/La Niña Bring…What Will El Niño/La Niña Bring…
The El Niño /La Niño cycle is the predominant mode of year to year climate variability in the Southeast.
“The CPC seasonal forecasts lack useful skill in the absence of a strong El Niño/La Niña event”
- Bob Livezey
Basic State of the Pacific OceanBasic State of the Pacific Ocean
Atmospheric CirculationAtmospheric Circulation
Winter Jet Stream PatternsWinter Jet Stream Patterns
El Niño La Niña
Monitoring the Pacific OceanMonitoring the Pacific Ocean
Tracking Tracking the El Niño /La Niña Cycle
• Sea surface temperature anomalies averaged over the Nino 3.4 portion of the equatorial Pacific Ocean
•Smoothed with a three-month running average to reduce noise
Last Winter - Last Winter - El Niño was here!
Tracking Tracking the El Niño /La Niña Cycle
• Sea surface temperature anomalies averaged over the Nino 3.4 portion of the equatorial Pacific Ocean
•Smoothed with a three-month running average to reduce noise
Current Conditions - Current Conditions - La Niña is here!
How Confident in La Nina?How Confident in La Nina?
Drought ImpactsDrought Impacts
Drought ImpactsDrought Impacts
El Niño Effects on PrecipitationEl Niño Effects on Precipitation
La Niña on PrecipitationLa Niña on Precipitation
Local Impacts of Local Impacts of El Niño /La Niña
El Niño
La Niña
Hillsborough County – Plant City
Probabilistic Nature of ForecastsProbabilistic Nature of Forecasts
March - El Niño
March - La Niña
Hillsborough County (Plant City)
Normal March Rainfall:3.39”
La Niña Effects on TemperatureLa Niña Effects on Temperature
Chill HoursChill Hours
El Niño La Niña
Chill AccumulationChill Accumulation
Chill AccumulationChill Accumulation
Climate and Florida CitrusClimate and Florida CitrusAdapted from: John Attaway, “Adapted from: John Attaway, “A History of Florida Citrus Freezes”A History of Florida Citrus Freezes”
Freeze damaged orange trees in 1895
La Nina and Freeze ProbabilitiesLa Nina and Freeze Probabilities
Probability of 25 degrees ˚F or less
NeutralLa Nina
Why is El Nino important?Why is El Nino important?
Where Can I Get More Information?
For More InformationFor More Information
www.agroclimate.org
www.coaps.fsu.edu
