Wiener Institut für

Internationale

Wirtschaftsvergleiche

The Vienna Institute for

International Economic

Studies

wiiw.ac.at

Isilda Mara

East-West migration trends in Europe:

Running out of steam

wiiw Spring Seminar

4 April 2019

2

wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019

Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?

Part I

Migration and demography

3

wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019

Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005

2015

Africa

Positive

population

growth

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005

2015

RU, MD, UA

1995

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005

2015

WB6

1995

Source: UN Statistics, 2017.

Total and working-age population growth, 1955-2015, %

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005

2015

EU-CEE11

1995

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005

2015

EU15

Negative

working-age

population

growth starting

in 2015

Strong decline in total and working-age population growth

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

19

55

19

65

19

75

19

85

19

95

20

05

20

15

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

19

55

19

65

19

75

19

85

19

95

20

05

20

15

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

19

55

19

65

19

75

19

85

19

95

20

05

20

15

EU15 EU-CEE11 WB6 EAP Africa

Total population change Working age population 15-64 change

negative

population

growth

starting with

2015positive

population

growth

19951995

1995

Working-age population 15-64 change Total population change

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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019

Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?

Source: Eurostat.

Average population change by individual countries, cumulative in %, 2011-2017

Winning and losing countries in demographic terms due to emigration

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

LT

LV

BG

HR

RO

HU

EE

PL SI

SK

CZ

RS

AL

BA

XK

ME

MK

MD

BY

RU

UA

GR

PT

ES IT FI

FR

NL

DE

BE

DK

GB

AT IE SE

TR

EU-CEE11 WB6 CIS3+UA EU15 NR

Crude rate of natural change Crude rate of net migration Crude rate of total changeNatural change Net migration Total population change

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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019

Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?

EU-CEE11 WB6 EU15

Male Female Male Female Male Female

-20000 -10000 0 10000 20000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90-94

100+

-5000 -2500 0 2500 5000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90-94

100+

-1000 -500 0 500 1000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90-94

100

Significant change in age structure

Source: UN Statistics in thousands, 2017.

1990 2018Male Female Male Female Male Female

-20000 -10000 0 10000 20000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90-94

100+

-5000 -2500 0 2500 5000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90-94

100+

-1000 -500 0 500 1000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90-94

100

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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019

Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?

Source: Eurostat.

Age structure,

EU-15,

natives vs

migrants,

2018, in %

In EU-15 migrants tend to be younger than natives and fall mainly

in working-age group

-13% -8% -3% 3% 8% 13%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90-94

100+

Intra_EU28

Natives EU15

Extra_EU28

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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019

Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?

Source: Eurostat, UN Statistics.

Migration in numbers

9

3.8

Main residing regions

Emigrants from EU-CEE11: 12.8 million in 2017

EU15 Other

Top five

sending countries:

PL, RO, CZ, BG, HU

Top five EU15

receiving countries :

DE, UK, IT, ES, AT

4.2 million (EU enlargement)

2.2 million (Financial crisis)

2,111,912

638,600

622,396

886,309

177,543

Main residing regions

Emigrants from WB: 4.4 million in 2017

EU15 CEE WB6 Other Turkey

2.2 million

(1990-2017)

Top sending

countries: AL, BA, RS

Top five EU15 receiving

countries:

IT, EL, DE, AT, FR

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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019

Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?

Source: Eurostat.

Net migration from EU-CEE11, 2008-2017

Since 2008 between 150 and 250 thousand migrants

left EU-CEE11 every year

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

RO

PL

HR

LT

BG

LV

SI

CZ

EE

SK

HU

EU-CEE11

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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019

Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?

Source: Eurostat.

Positive net migration to some of EU-CEE11 countries in 2017

-160,000

-60,000

40,000

140,000

240,000

340,000

440,000

DE GB IT ES SE NL FR AT BE FI IE DK GR PT

-80,000

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

HU CZ EE SK SI BG LV PL LT HR RO

Intra-EU28 Extra-EU28 Natives Total

Ukrainians

and Asians

Net migration by nationals, EU28 and extra-EU28 migrants

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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019

Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?

Part II

Migration and labour market implications

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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019

Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?

Source: Eurostat.

Beveridge curve, 4Q 2006 - 4Q 2018 (four-quarter average rates)

Strong drop in unemployment rate combined

with rise in vacancy rates in EU-CEE11

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Jo

b v

acan

cy r

ate

(%

)

Unemployment rate (%)

4Q 2006

4Q 2010

4Q 2014

4Q 2018

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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019

Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?

Source: Manpowergroup, ‘2018 Talent Shortage Survey’.

Main difficulties faced by employers to find workers, 2018

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

SE

IT

CH

AT

UK

DE

FR

SI

HU

BG

CZ

RO

PL

SI

EU

CE

E

Lack of applicants

Lack of experience

Applicants lack required hard skills

Applicants lack required soft skills

Other

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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019

Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?

Source: wiiw database, Jobs Gateway (2018).

Closing of wage gap weakens

the pull factor to emigrate

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

Average gross monthly wage ratio, EU-CEE11 to EU15, %

Drop in unemployment weakens

the push factor to emigrate

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

Unemployment rate in %, 2006-2018

EU-CEE11 EU15

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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019

Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?

Source: wiiw database, Jobs Gateway, wiiw Handbook of Statistics.

Push and pull drivers of emigration remain strong in WB6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

Unemployment rate in %, WB6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

Average gross monthly wage ratio, %

WB5 to EU15 WB5 to EU-CEE11

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wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019

Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?

Source: World Gallup (2018), Potential Net Migration Index. ‘Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to

another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?’

Intentions to emigrate remain high especially from WB6 Potential Net Emigration Index, 2017

16

wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019

Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?

EU-CEE running out of steam

- Outward migration will slow down due to:

• strong drop in working-age population

• rise in wages

• drop in unemployment

- Labour shortages in EU-CEE and EU15 are

likely to be tackled via extra-EU rather than

intra-EU mobility

- Rise in birth rate is an option, but in the

long run

Summary: Running out of steam

Potential migration from WB6 remains high

- Similar to EU-CEE11, WB6 has lost and will continue to

lose the youngest and its best people

- Drop in total and working-age population and continued

emigration puts at risk:

• demographic structure

• human capital

• economic prospects of the sending countries

- Reducing migration pressure from WB6:

• involvement of diaspora

• allocation of remittances into investment

should be encouraged

18

wiiw Spring Seminar, 4 April 2019

Ten Years after the Crisis: What Is the 'New Normal' for CESEE?

Country codes

AL Albania KZ Kazakhstan RS Serbia

BY Belarus LT Lithuania RU Russia

BA Bosnia and Herzegovina LV Latvia SI Slovenia

BG Bulgaria MD Moldova SK Slovakia

CZ Czech Republic ME Montenegro TR Turkey

EE Estonia MK North Macedonia UA Ukraine

HR Croatia PL Poland XK Kosovo

HU Hungary RO Romania

CESEE23 Central, East and Southeast Europe

CIS4+UA Commonwealth of Independent States-4 and Ukraine

EA19 Euro area

EU-CEE11 European Union – Central and Eastern Europe

WB6 Western Balkans

Thank you for your attention!

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