Whyte - Littoral 2010 (Education Centre)

8/8/2019 Whyte - Littoral 2010 (Education Centre)

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Callum Whyte*, Fiona Culhane*, Teresa Fernandes*,

Paul Tett*, Branka Valcic+, Tavis Potts+

SSA07SSA07 -- The Clyde Sea: A ModellersThe Clyde Sea: A Modellers

PerspectivePerspective

*Edinburgh Napier University, + Scottish Association for Marine Science

Callum WhyteCallum Whyte


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IntroductionIntroduction

Coastal ZoneCoastal Zone

Issues oftenIssues often

include a highinclude a high

degree of socialdegree of socialcomplexitycomplexity

ConflictConflict

resolutionresolutionConsensusConsensus

BuildingBuilding

No rightNo right

or wrongor wrong

answeranswer


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Clyde SeaClyde Sea

Cork HarbourCork HarbourOder estuaryOder estuary

HimmerfjardenHimmerfjarden

LimfjordenLimfjorden

SonderledSonderled

Gulf of RigaGulf of Riga

Gulf of GdanskGulf of GdanskVenice LagoonVenice Lagoon

ThermaikosThermaikos GulfGulf

Guadiana EstuaryGuadiana Estuary

PertuisPertuis CharentaisCharentais

Scheldt DeltaScheldt DeltaThauThau LagoonLagoon

TarantaTaranta MareMare PiccaloPiccalo

Barcelona CoastBarcelona Coast

IzmitIzmit BayBay

Danube DeltaDanube Delta

SPICOSAStudy SitesSPICOSAStudy Sites


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Clyde SeaClyde Sea

Cork HarbourCork HarbourOder estuaryOder estuary

HimmerfjardenHimmerfjarden

LimfjordenLimfjorden

SonderledSonderled

Gulf of RigaGulf of Riga

Gulf of GdanskGulf of GdanskVenice LagoonVenice Lagoon

ThermaikosThermaikos GulfGulf

Guadiana EstuaryGuadiana Estuary

PertuisPertuis CharentaisCharentais

Scheldt DeltaScheldt DeltaThauThau LagoonLagoon

TarantaTaranta MareMare PiccaloPiccalo

Barcelona CoastBarcelona Coast

IzmitIzmit BayBay

Danube DeltaDanube Delta

SPICOSAStudy SitesSPICOSAStudy Sites

Loch FyneLoch FyneFirth of ClydeFirth of Clyde


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Firth of Clyde Study SiteFirth of Clyde Study Site

Courtesy tfiDonnie@Flikr

Courtesy Andy Brockhurst @Flikr

Loch Fyne


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Study SitesStudy Sites

Loch Fyne

Loch Creran


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SocietalSocietal

LearningLearning ChangeChange

inin

PolicyPolicy

ChangeChange

in H manin H mancti itiecti itie

Change inChange in

U erU er

Relation hipRelation hip

Change inChange inP blicP blic

warenewarene

Change inChange in

Eco y temEco y tem

InstitutionalChange ESE Assessment

TheThe Spico aSpico a LoopLoop

ESEEconomyEconomyEn ironmentEn ironment

SocietySociety

ESE pproachESE pproach


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Policy issuePolicy issue

The Scottish Government proposed aThe Scottish Government proposed a

50%50% -- 100% increase in leisure boating100% increase in leisure boating

and step ashore sites in the Firth of Clydeand step ashore sites in the Firth of Clyde

Accompanied by an increase inAccompanied by an increase in

aquacultureaquaculture

Photo courtesy:

arcadeus_ex's

@ Flikr


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Focus GroupFocus GroupStakeholdersStakeholders

Firth of Clyde Scottish sustainable MarineFirth of Clyde Scottish sustainable Marine

Environment InitiativeEnvironment Initiative

Argyll and Bute CouncilArgyll and Bute Council

Scottish Environment Protection AgencyScottish Environment Protection Agency

The Clyde forumThe Clyde forum


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Conceptual modelsConceptual models


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BoundaryBoundary

conditionsconditions

SeaSea

NutrientsNutrients

ChlorophyllChlorophyll

concentrationconcentration

FreshwaterFreshwater

inflow: rivers,inflow: rivers,runoffrunoff

LightLight

MarinaMarina

No of YachtsNo of YachtsGenerates revenueGenerates revenue

Places pressure onPlaces pressure on

environmentenvironment

Phytoplankton in lochPhytoplankton in loch

If concentrations of antiIf concentrations of anti--foulantsfoulants exceed safeexceed safe

threshold growth will bethreshold growth will be

impededimpeded

AntiAnti--

foulantsfoulants

Mussel FarMussel FarReduction in foodReduction in food

may have amay have a

negative impact onnegative impact on

mussel growthmussel growth

Marina EconomicMarina Economic

ModelModel

Mussel farmMussel farm

Economic ModelEconomic Model

Lack ofLack of

foodfood

EconomyEconomy

ExchangeExchange


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BoundaryBoundary

ConditionsConditions

NutrientNutrient


in seain sea



LochLochNutrient concentrationNutrient concentration

Chlorophyll concentrationChlorophyll concentration

VolumeVolume

Inputs:Inputs: RiversRivers

Runoff, etcRunoff, etc

LossesLosses: Grazing,: Grazing,

Sinking,Sinking, LysisLysis

ExchangeExchange


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Mathematical modelsMathematical models

ExtendSim7ExtendSim7 Imagine that! Inc.Imagine that! Inc.

Tidal exchange ModelTidal exchange Model


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HorrendogramsHorrendograms

Conceptual ModelsConceptual Models

MathematicalMathematical

modelsmodels

StakeholdersStakeholdersStakeholdersStakeholders

Process of building a modelProcess of building a model collecting datacollecting data -- in itself gives ain itself gives a

better understanding of the systembetter understanding of the system

A Linear Process?A Linear Process?


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Stakeholders expressed a desire that the ModelsStakeholders expressed a desire that the Modelshad to be scientifically robusthad to be scientifically robust

Model was based on theModel was based on the dCSTTdCSTT assimilativeassimilative

capacity model (capacity model (laurentlaurent 2006) and a2006) and aBioenergeticBioenergetic Mussel growth model developed byMussel growth model developed by

Grant andGrant and BacherBacher (Grant and(Grant and BacherBacher 1998)1998)

Well validated predictive modelsWell validated predictive models

However their strength in terms ofHowever their strength in terms of

SPICOSA is their use as exploratory modelsSPICOSA is their use as exploratory models

Confidence?Confidence?


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Trust?Trust?

"it may not be possible to"it may not be possible to

determine the exact outcomedetermine the exact outcome

of certain actions but simplyof certain actions but simply

show that certain outcomesshow that certain outcomesmay be possible ...When thismay be possible ...When this

is the case uncertainty inis the case uncertainty in

some parts of the systemsome parts of the system

doesnt need to be accounteddoesnt need to be accountedfor but can be included as afor but can be included as a

range of scenariosrange of scenarios

((BrugnachBrugnach et al 2008).et al 2008).


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Trust?Trust?

Uncertainty is inherent inUncertainty is inherent in

the modelling process and itthe modelling process and it

is important to make thisis important to make this

clear to the stakeholdersclear to the stakeholders

Firth of Clyde study site incorporatedFirth of Clyde study site incorporated

uncertainty over the toxicity of antiuncertainty over the toxicity of antifouling compounds into the modelfouling compounds into the model

through the use of drop down buttonsthrough the use of drop down buttons


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SummarySummary

SPICOSA and its systems approach is wellSPICOSA and its systems approach is well

structured towards handling socially complexstructured towards handling socially complex

problemsproblems

While society is not necessarily modelled explicitlyWhile society is not necessarily modelled explicitly

it is included in the process through the iterativeit is included in the process through the iterative

development of conceptual modelsdevelopment of conceptual models

The actual process of trying to construct a modelThe actual process of trying to construct a model

of a system in itself yields valuable informationof a system in itself yields valuable information

about that systemabout that system


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Thank you!Thank you!


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A Syste s ApproachA Syste s Approach

SysteSyste

DesignDesign

SysteSyste

For ulationFor ulation

SysteSyste

AppraisalAppraisal

SysteSyste

OutputOutput

SysteSyste

DesignDesign

SysteSyste


SysteSyste

AppraisalAppraisal

SysteSyste

OutputOutput

Syste s DesignSyste s Design

Identify an Issue or proble inIdentify an Issue or proble in

the coastal zone.the coastal zone.

Create a conceptual odelCreate a conceptual odel consider ESE aspects of issueconsider ESE aspects of issue

Identify possible StakeholdersIdentify possible Stakeholders


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A system can be described as a group of parts or elements,A system can be described as a group of parts or elements,each with its own set of properties, lying within giveneach with its own set of properties, lying within given

boundaries which, interact.boundaries which, interact.

They may have emergent properties such as stabilizingThey may have emergent properties such as stabilizingfeedback loops.feedback loops.

Most systems are recursive, which is to say that they containMost systems are recursive, which is to say that they contain

subsystems, and so it is important to identify the correct scalesubsystems, and so it is important to identify the correct scale

on which to describe them.on which to describe them.


SysteSyste

DesignDesign

SysteSyste


SysteSyste

AppraisalAppraisal

SysteSyste

OutputOutput

SysteSyste

DesignDesign

SysteSyste


SysteSyste

AppraisalAppraisal

SysteSyste

OutputOutput


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SysteSyste

DesignDesign

SysteSyste


SysteSyste

AppraisalAppraisal

SysteSyste

OutputOutput

SysteSyste

DesignDesign

SysteSyste


SysteSyste

AppraisalAppraisal

SysteSyste

OutputOutput

Syste s For ulationSyste s For ulation

Quantify various processes,Quantify various processes,

interactions, andinteractions, andco ponents of conceptualco ponents of conceptual

odelodel

Start to build odelStart to build odel


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SysteSyste

DesignDesign

SysteSyste


SysteSyste

AppraisalAppraisal

SysteSyste

OutputOutput

SysteSyste

DesignDesign

SysteSyste


SysteSyste

AppraisalAppraisal

SysteSyste

OutputOutput

Syste s AppraisalSyste s Appraisal

Calibrate odel throughCalibrate odel through

hindcastinghindcasting/sensitivity analysis/sensitivity analysis

Si ulate and interpret odelSi ulate and interpret odel

response in ter s of CZ Issueresponse in ter s of CZ Issue


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SysteSyste

DesignDesign

SysteSyste


SysteSyste

AppraisalAppraisal

SysteSyste

OutputOutput

SysteSyste

DesignDesign

SysteSyste


SysteSyste

AppraisalAppraisal

SysteSyste

OutputOutput

Syste s OutputSyste s Output

Present Scientific results and odelsPresent Scientific results and odels

Present results to StakeholderPresent results to Stakeholder

Foru s/policy akersForu s/policy akers

Provide infor ation in Lay ter sProvide infor ation in Lay ter s


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StakeholdersStakeholders

Worried that anti foulant compoundsWorried that anti foulant compounds

could have detrimental affect oncould have detrimental affect on

phytoplanktonphytoplankton

Increase in faecal coliforms wouldIncrease in faecal coliforms wouldaffect water quality and have aaffect water quality and have a

detrimental effect on mussel farmersdetrimental effect on mussel farmers


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SkeletonemaSkeletonema spp.spp.

P

hotographed using a Carl ZeissA

xiovert 25and a Nikon D80


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SuccessionalSuccessional Change? BiomassChange? Biomass


ConcentrationsConcentrations

19731973--19821982

20082008--20092009

1970s1970s -- 40 g40 g chlchl/L 2008/L 2008--0909 -- 4 g4 g chlchl/L/L


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SuccessionalSuccessional Change? BiomassChange? Biomass


ConcentrationsConcentrations

19731973--19821982

20082008--20092009

Loch FyneLoch Fyne

Loch CreranLoch CreranLoch CreranLoch CreranLoch FyneLoch Fyne


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Loch Creran13 km long

1.5 km wide

Lynn of Lorn

S

hallow sills

To upper basin

Deep Areas


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Central GovernmentCentral Government

AgenciesAgencies

SEPASEPA

SNH etcSNH etc

ExternalExternal

sources/sinkssources/sinks

of moneyof money

LocalLocal

governmentgovernment

Jobs dependent onJobs dependent on

Marina/musselsMarina/mussels

Marina economicMarina economic

modelmodel

Mussel economicMussel economic

modelmodel

Sea boundarySea boundary

conditionsconditions

Other InputsOther Inputs

RiversRiversRun offRun off

etcetc

SunlighSunlight

Mussel growth modelMussel growth model

State variablesS

tate variablesMussel massMussel mass

Mussel numbersMussel numbers

Light ModelLight Model

AttenuationAttenuation

IrradianceIrradiance

State variablesState variables

CSTTCSTT

Phytoplankton/Phytoplankton/microplanktonmicroplankton

modelmodel


Chlorophyll concentrationChlorophyll concentration

Nutrient concentrationNutrient concentration

Anti fouling concentrationAnti fouling concentration

Yacht marinaYacht marina

No of boatsNo of boats

Antifouling fluxAntifouling fluxState variablesState variables

Mussel Economic modelMussel Economic model


Mussel massMussel mass

Mussel numbersMussel numbers


PARPAR


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Low salinity, low density water flowing seawardsLow salinity, low density water flowing seawards

Fjordic CirculationFjordic Circulation

Seawater moves inland atSeawater moves inland at

An Intermediate depthAn Intermediate depth

EntrainmentEntrainment

ShallowShallow

SillSill

IsohalineIsohaline

HigherHigher

densitydensityseawaterseawater

ShallowShallow

sillsill


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Mixing DepthMixing Depth

PhoticPhotic

ZoneZone

If mixing depthIf mixing depthwere to increasewere to increase

phytoplanktonphytoplankton

would spendwould spend

more time out ofmore time out of

photicphotic zonezone

MixingMixing

depthdepth


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Mixing DepthMixing Depth

Changes toChanges to

the mixingthe mixing

depth candepth can

affect theaffect the

amount ofamount of

timetime phytophyto--

planktersplankters

spend outspend out

of theof thephoticphotic zonezone


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Model calibrationModel calibration


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Sampling MethodsSampling Methods


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Water samples collected fromWater samples collected from

shore and by boatshore and by boat weekly/biweekly/bi--

monthly and monthlymonthly and monthly

RVRV CalanusCalanus -- SAMSSAMS


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Fjordic CirculationFjordic Circulation

50 m50 m

18 Km18 Km


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ExtendSim7ExtendSim7 Imagine that! Inc.Imagine that! Inc.

NitratesNitrates


PhosphatesPhosphates

Silicates,Silicates,

antianti--foulants,foulants,etcetc


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ModelModel

calculating thecalculating the

growth ofgrowth of

phytoplanktonphytoplanktonadjusted foradjusted for

lightlight

attenuation inattenuation in

the waterthe water

column.column.

PossiblePossible

Generic blockGeneric block


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MAMPEC ModelMAMPEC ModelDelft hydraulicsDelft hydraulics

VrijeVrije UniversiteitUniversiteit ofof

AmsterdamAmsterdam

Calculating the predicted environ ental concentrations of antiCalculating the predicted environ ental concentrations of anti

foulants in arine environ entfoulants in arine environ ent


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Generic BlocksGeneric Blocks

title

ECO OGICA PROCESS I RARY

PEC/PNEC Decision Block

PNECInPNECIn

A>=B

A

B

Y

N

RQG

eate

an1O

tRQG

eate

an1O

t

RQLess

an1O

tRQLess

an1O

t

This bu

on can be cloned to the

model inter

ace ifrequired and

allows a level of safety or

uncertainty, between 10 and

100,000 to be selected

PEC = Predicted Environmental

Concentration of a pollutant

PNEC = Predicted No

(Toxicological) Effect Concentration

of the pollutant on a particular

organism If the calculated Risk Quotient

(RQ) is greaterthan orequal

to 1 this output will have the

value of1 Otherwise it will

output a value of zero.

If the calculated Risk Quotient

(RQ) is less than 1 this output will

have a value of1. Otherwise it will

output a value of zero.

y=f(x)

PECInPECIn

Uncertainty factor-10

Model block function

This block allows the predicted environmental concentration of a given pollutant to be compared with a predicted no (toxicological) effect

concentration for that pollutant and is determined by a risk quotient (RQ). If the RQ is greater than or equal to 1 then that concentration is

considered to have adverse effects on the environment. The block has inputs for the PEC and the PNEC of a pollutant and contains a pop up

button that allows the PNEC of a substance to be divided by a safety or uncertainty factor. this factor can be chosen by the user. the button

can be easily cloned to the models user interface. The block has two outputs. If the calculated Risk Quotient (RQ) is greater than or equal to

1 the output labelled "RQ greater than 1 out" will have the value of 1. Otherwise it will output a value of zero. If the calculated Risk Quotient

(RQ) is less than 1 then the output labelled "RQ Less than 1 out" will have a value of 1. Otherwise it will output a value of zero. These

outputs when connected to a model can, for example, be used to trigger different pathways in the model dependent on the results

obtained.............................................................


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Regular water samples taken from both LochRegular water samples taken from both Loch CreranCreran and Lochand Loch FyneFyne

AnalysedAnalysed for:for:

Chlorophyll,Chlorophyll,

PhytoplanktonPhytoplankton numbers,numbers,

Nutrients,Nutrients,

Salinity,Salinity,

pH,pH,

Light attenuationLight attenuation

MethodsMethods

MonthlyMonthly

transects oftransects of

the Lynn ofthe Lynn of

LornLorn and Lochand Loch

CreranCreran


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Transects of Lynn ofTransects of Lynn of LornLorn and Lochand Loch CreranCreran


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CTDCTD

measurementsofmeasurementsof

density, oxygen anddensity, oxygen andfluorescence in thefluorescence in the

Lynn of Lorne andLynn of Lorne and

LochLoch CreranCreran havehave

been taken monthlybeen taken monthly

during 2009.during 2009.

FluorescenceFluorescence

Mixing LayerMixing Layer

SratificationSratification

Contours created inContours created in

Surfer usingSurfer using krigingkriging

as the interpolationas the interpolationalgorithalgorith and anand an

anisotropic ratio ofanisotropic ratio of

2.52.5

6.

06.20

6.

0

6.40

6.

0

6.60

6.

0

6. 0

6.90

.00

. 0

.20

.

0

.40

.

0

.60

. 0

.

0

.90

.00

. 0

2.00

xygen (mg/l) uncalibrated 09 July 2009 Loch Creran2 .00

2 . 0

2 .60

2 .90

22.20

22. 0

22. 0

2 . 0

2 .40

2 . 0

24.00

24. 0

24.60

24.90

2 .20

.00

Density 09 July 2009 Loch Creran

Fluorescence 09 July 2009

Contour PlotsContour Plots

50m50m

18 km18 km


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Loch Fyne

Loch Creran


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Loch Fyne

Loch Creran


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Sensitivity analysisSensitivity analysis


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Model InterfaceModel Interface


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1975 Observations1975 Observations

ModelledModelled

2008 Observations2008 Observations

Silicate not included in Model

Silicate included in Model

Chlorophyll concentrations in Loch CreranChlorophyll concentrations in Loch Creran


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Model run withModel run with

silicate included,silicate included, = 0.5= 0.5

Model run withModel run with

out silicate,out silicate,

= 0.5= 0.5

1975 observations1975 observations

Modelled resultsModelled results

2008 observations2008 observations


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Silicate?Silicate?Silicate?Silicate?

Alginate factory atAlginate factory at

barcaldinebarcaldine

KelcoKelco processed 80processed 80--

100,000 tonnes of100,000 tonnes of

wet Kelp per yearwet Kelp per yearsplit between Girvansplit between Girvan

and Barcaldineand Barcaldine

3500 tonnes of3500 tonnes of

effluent/yeareffluent/year

800 tonnes dissolved800 tonnes dissolved

in fresh waterin fresh water1g of wet weight Kelp1g of wet weight Kelp

contains 0.35 molescontains 0.35 moles

silicatesilicate


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Heterotrophic fractionHeterotrophic fraction --

Model results combined withModel results combined with

observational data suggests that thereobservational data suggests that there

has been a change in the abundancehas been a change in the abundance

ofof heterotrophsheterotrophs particularly in theparticularly in the

early part of the yearearly part of the year

Eta (Eta () introduces some ecology) introduces some ecology

into the model. It allows for changesinto the model. It allows for changes

in the ratio ofin the ratio of photoautotrophsphotoautotrophs toto

heterotrophsheterotrophs in the systemin the system


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SummarySummary

SPICOSASPICOSA an integrated systems approach to coastalan integrated systems approach to coastal

management taking into account the ecological, social andmanagement taking into account the ecological, social and

economic aspects of a systemeconomic aspects of a system

Aims to produce methodologies and tools which will aidAims to produce methodologies and tools which will aidcoastal managerscoastal managers

Generic blocks willGeneric blocks will in theory, allow a system to bein theory, allow a system to be

modelled relatively quickly and easilymodelled relatively quickly and easily

Experiences gained from the varied study sites willExperiences gained from the varied study sites will

contribute to a large information base which will outlive thecontribute to a large information base which will outlive the

projectproject


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Callum Whyte*, Fiona Culhane*, Teresa Fernandes*,

Paul Tett*, Branka Valcic+, Tavis Potts+

The Clyde Sea: The Effect of increasedThe Clyde Sea: The Effect of increased

Leisure Boating on Local Shellfish Far ingLeisure Boating on Local Shellfish Far ing

*

Edinburgh Napier University,+

Scottish Association for Marine Science

Callum WhyteCallum Whyte

[email protected]@napier.ac.uk


58/59


Link toLink to

PhytoplanktonPhytoplankton

growth modelgrowth model


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Mussel Growth

Number of Mussels Mussel Economy

Particulate Organic Matter

y=f(x)

detrital

POM

Tissue C mass per

mussel

Number of

mussels

detrital POM

ingestion

detrital POM

ingestion

V

detrital

POM

detritus POC per POM

detritus POC per POM

Number of

mussels

Phytoplankton

ingestion

V

Phyto C:Chl

Number of

mussels

Phytoplankton

ingestion

Phyto C:Chl

Number of

mussels

Rejection

detrital

POM

Number mussels

harvested per day

Rejection

Tissue C mass per

mussel

Number mussels

harvested per day

DischargeInDischargeIn

JOBSOUTJOBSOUT

ExchangeInExchangeIn

Volume2InVolume2In

PGrazingOutPGrazingOut

PhytoplanktonInPhytoplanktonIn

MONEYTOLOCALECONOMYOUTMONEYTOLOCALECONOMYOUT

FARMPROFITOUTFARMPROFITOUT

Tissue C mass per

mussel

MUSSEL

GROWTH

MUSSEL

FARM

MUSSEL

ECONOMICS

MUSSEL

GRAZING

PARTICULATE

ORGANIC

MATTER

FeedbackFeedback

looploop

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Whyte - Littoral 2010 (Education Centre)