Business Performance Improvement Resource

BPIR Best Practice ReportBusiness Excellence Series

Volume 2, Issue 2

Strategy: Strategic Foresight and Future Shaping

Why spend time re-inventing the wheel when you can learn from the experience of others?

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Business Performance Improvement Resourcesupporting your quest for excellence

The TRADE Best Practice Benchmarking Methodology(the latest version is available at BPIR.com)

www.coer.org.nz/apply/trade-best-practice-benchmarking

The International Best Practice Competition and Organisation-Wide Innovation Award(hundreds of best practice award videos and case studies are available at BPIR.com)

www.bestpracticecompetition.com

The Global Benchmarking Award(dozens of benchmarking award videos and case studies are available at BPIR.com)

www.globalbenchmarkingaward.com

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Welcome to BPIR.com’s Business Excellence series The BPIR.com Business Excellence Series has been designed as a premium collection of more than 30 best practice reports. The reports are professionally crafted with all the criteria of Business Excellence Models and Frameworks in mind, in particular the Baldrige Criteria for Performance Excellence and the EFQM Excellence Model. Business Excellence Models are internationally recognised, holistic models that enable organisations to assess and improve their journey towards world-class performance. The series will assist organisations to find and implement best practices across all six major categories (and sub-criteria/items) of Business Excellence Models:

• leadership• strategy• customers• information and knowledge management• human resources, and• operations.

The Centre for Organisational Excellence Research (COER) is a leader in research into Business Excellence and, as founders of BPIR.com, brings its expertise to this new series. COER is currently working on a number of exciting projects relating to Business Excellence, including the largest ever study on the design, deployment, and impact of national, regional, and sectoral Business Excellence programs. This research, called Excellence Without Borders, is supported by the Global Excellence Model Council and involves more than 35 of the 70+ countries that actively promote Business Excellence.

This new series builds on BPIR.com’s internationally acclaimed Best Practice Report series, which has been at the cutting-edge of business performance improvement research since 2002. Over the years, we’ve produced more than 100 Best Practice Reports, examining wide-ranging and diverse topics including Six Sigma, social media, manufacturing outsourcing, Lean techniques, flexible work arrangements, and product life cycle management. Each report provides a succinct review of the topic, expert opinion, best practice case studies, latest research, benchmarks, and self-assessment resources. Various materials—such as e-books, reports, and infographics—are provided as downloadable links. You will find a full list of these reports, all of which are available to members, on the back cover of this issue.

Become a member of BPIR.com There are many benefits to becoming a member of BPIR.com – not least of which is receiving future issues of our best practice reports in your inbox and exclusive access to our best practice database of reports, videos, articles, and expert analysis. This treasure trove of information, hands-on experience, and learning will take your business to the next level.

If you are a non-member, you will find some of the links in this report do not work. To join BPIR.com simply click here or to find out more about membership, email membership@bpir.com or visit www.bpir.com – and be sure to follow us on Twitter at @BPIRcom.

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Strategy: Strategic Foresight and Future Shaping

The Definition

Strategic foresight refers to the discipline of intelligence gathering, predicting alternative futures, and preparing for them. Today’s business world is increasingly uncontrolled and dynamic. Organisations need to have a good understanding of the overall macro-environment – i.e. the economy as a whole – so they can anticipate risks and threats, as well as explore megatrends, markets, and product and service demands. The purpose of strategic foresight is to develop a vision and cohesive, sustainable strategies to implement today, while positioning the organisation to create and maintain its preferred or alternative futures.

The term foresight is often used in conjunction with future shaping. Future shaping refers to the influencing or recalibrating of organisational policies and processes to shape and support an envisioned future, both within and outside an organisation. The fundamental principle of future shaping is that future shaping influences the market – not the reverse.

The Stage

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major effect on all parts of society – from civil society to businesses to governments – and has demonstrated clearly that vulnerability is not selective. Policies that seemed impossible yesterday are universal today. Perhaps the strongest message it has sent is that complacency and lack of preparation are very poor options; we must prepare for an unknown and uncertain future.

According to UNCTAD, the United Nations trade and development agency, the slowdown in the global economy due to the coronavirus outbreak is likely to cost at least US$1 trillion in 2020 alone. To recover, industry and governments need to plan ahead, and to think beyond the immediate aftermath of the crisis. They need to use strategic foresight.

The principles of supply and demand are multifaceted. Analysing relationships between local, national, and international events – and then predicting ripple effects over the long or medium term is vital. In a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) global business order, foresight has become something of fundamental importance – not just to achieve excellence in business or governance, but to guarantee survival. The collapse of the iconic Kodak brand is a salutary lesson of what can happen when there is a lack of foresight.

Foresight is the hallmark of innovative journeys. By developing anticipatory intelligence, an organisation can heighten its acumen to innovate and manage plausible or unexpected threats. And by undertaking a scientific analysis of consumer-customer-competitor behaviours and evaluating emerging technologies, an organisation can develop a barrier against prospective disruptive innovations. The cost of not developing organisational—indeed, industry-wide—foresight can be significant. The global hotel industry suffered major disruption when a start-up developed a futuristic outlook during the 2008 recession and shaped the future of the hospitality industry. Airbnb is now a billion-dollar company.

This report will demonstrate how to understand various possible futures and be well-organised for change; improve your ability to select the right transformation for your company; and, shape the future and co-exist with it in the present.

In This Report…

1. What is “strategic foresight and future shaping”? 2. Which organisations have received recognition for excellent strategic foresight and future shaping? 3. How have organisations reached high levels of success through strategic foresight and future shaping?4. What research has been undertaken into strategic foresight and future shaping? 5. What tools and methods are used to achieve high levels of success in strategic foresight and future shaping? 6. How can strategic foresight and future shaping be measured?7. What do business leaders say about strategic foresight and future shaping?8. Conclusion

Author: Dr Almas Tazein, BPIR.com LimitedEditor: Dr Robin Mann, Centre for Organisational Excellence ResearchEditor: Michael Adams, Thingwall Communications (Canada)

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1. What is “strategic foresight and future shaping”?1.1 Strategic ForesightSource: Gordon Institute of Business Science, South Africa (date of information: 2019)Link (video): Strategic ForesightApplication/Key learning points: In this seven-minute video, Marius Oosthuizen, from the University of Pretoria’s Gordon Institute of Business Science, and Cat Tully, co-founder and director at the School of International Futures, talk about strategic foresight and explain how it can be used to help make better decisions.

1.2 Strategic Foresight and Future ShapingSources & Links:

• Introduction to Strategic Foresight, United States• What Is Strategic Foresight?, Finland• Foresight and Future Shaping, United Kingdom • The Innovation Leader’s Practical Guide to Strategic Foresight, United States• Strategic Foresight and Leadership, United States • 21st Century Leadership: Foresight, Market Disruption, and the Butterfly Effect

Application/Key learning points: These excellent introductory guides will help you learn more about strategic foresight and enable you to identify and leverage the trends that matter most to your future success. You can find out how strategic foresight can support your firm to stand strong even in the middle of unexpected storms. The websites are a mine of information and well worth visiting. The final link is to a short video about disruption and the “butterfly effect” – how one small incident today can lead to a significant impact in the future.

1.3 Shaping Strategies: Redefine the Nature of CompetitionSource: Deloitte, United States (date of information: 2019, 2017)Link: Shaping Strategies to Create New BusinessApplication/Key learning points: Is your organisation ready to drive broad external change? This link leads to several short succinct explanatory documents with an excellent executive summary. The FAQs provide answers to some common questions and explain what a shaping strategy is and what some of its components are; who benefits from a shaping strategy; what the characteristics of a shaper are; and, what distinguishes a shaping strategy from other successful strategies.

Link (podcast): Deciphering Shaping Strategies for the Internet of ThingsApplication/Key learning points: For companies involved in the Internet of Things (IoT), the competition is fierce. The shaping strategy approach is designed for innovative IoT companies with aligned leadership who want to influence the direction of the entire industry. In this 13-minute podcast, two Deloitte leaders share their key message: shape or be shaped.

1.4 A Guide to Strategic ForesightSource: Association of Governmental Risk Pools (AGRiP), United States (date of information: 2019)Download (PDF): Framing the Future: a Guide to Strategic ForesightApplication/Key learning points: This workbook explains what strategic foresight is and how it is different to strategic planning. It also provides explanations about how public entity pools use strategic foresight, and provides a fascinating explanation of the six steps of strategic foresight.

1.5 Corporate ForesightSource: ARUP, United Kingdom (date of information: 2019)Download (PDF): An Introduction to Corporate Foresight Application/Key learning points: This 44-page document provides an introduction to corporate foresight and covers some of the basic foresight tools and methods; there is a focus on scenarios that help inform strategic thinking, innovation, and project delivery. Examples come from Volkswagen, Frost & Sullivan, the manufacturing and rail industries, and Hertfordshire County Council.

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1.6 Strategic Foresight for Better PoliciesSource: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), France (date of information: 2019)Link: What Is Strategic Foresight?Link: Building Effective Governance in the Face of Uncertain FuturesApplication/Key learning points: At the heart of international co-operation, the OECD brings together 36 member countries from around the world, as well as a range of partners that collaborate on key global issues at national, regional and local levels. The purpose of this 12-page document is to provide senior officials from centres of government with a brief guide to strengthening the foresight capacity of their governments through better use of strategic foresight in policymaking. The piece begins with an introduction to foresight and provides examples of its use by governments and other organisations. Drawing on best practices from around the world, a description of key components for building a more comprehensive strategic foresight system is also presented.

2. Which organisations have received recognition for excellent strategic foresight and future shaping? 2.1 Examples of Strategic Foresight and Future Shaping AwardsSources and Links:

• Foresight Announces the 2020 Cleantech Award Winners, Canada• 2019 Airline Strategy Awards, Nigeria• The Women of the Future Awards, Singapore• Shaping the Future Awards, United Arab Emirates• Next Generation Foresight Awards, United Kingdom• The Next Generation Foresight Practitioner’s Award at Stellenbosch, United Kingdom• RSA Future Work Awards Winners 2018/19, United Kingdom • NRF Foundation: List of People Shaping Retail’s Future 2020, United States

Application/Key learning points: These are examples of strategic foresight and future shaping awards in various categories from across the globe. The information provided includes individual awards and organisational awards, and shares winning ideas and practices about how to accelerate transformation using foresight and strategic capabilities. You will be able to find out how these award winners have envisioned a better future and what makes them unique. They are usually excellent sources to contact and from which to learn. 2.2 Innovators Shaping the Future of CommerceSource: Retail Week, United Kingdom (date of information: 2019)Link: Tech 100 2019: The Innovators Shaping the Future of CommerceApplication/Key learning points: Retail Week’s Tech 100 index gives you the lowdown on the 100 most influential people shaping the future of commerce through technology and digital innovation. Representing the changing face of the industry, the Tech 100 has been split into groups of retailers and brands, investors, collaborators, tech titans, start-ups and disruptors. Shining a light on names that often go under the radar, the list focuses on those shaping tomorrow’s tech-led world. Find out how industry leaders are shaping the future of e-commerce.

2.3 Best Practice AwardsSource: Frost & Sullivan, United States (date of information: 2020, 2019)Link: Frost & Sullivan Best Practices Award RecipientsApplication/Key learning points: The Frost & Sullivan Best Practices Awards aim to recognise people and organisations that have accomplished an innovative or disruptive breakthrough in a range of regional and global markets, as well as companies that have exhibited exemplary achievements in strategies and processes. While the recipients represent a wide range of technologies, services, and products, there is a common and unifying theme of innovation. Frost & Sullivan’s industry analyst team benchmarks market participants and measures their performance through independent, primary interviews, and secondary industry research to evaluate and identify best practices. There are more than 135 case studies of award recipients.

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2.4 Dubai Gets Top Rating in Energy, Environment DesignSource: Khaleej Times, United Arab Emirates (date of information: 2019)Link: Dubai Received the Platinum Rating in Sustainable Cities from LEEDApplication/Key learning points: Dubai received the Platinum Rating in the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) for Cities certification awarded by the United States Green Building Council. Dubai is the first city in the Arab world and the Middle East and North Africa region to receive this certification. The Platinum Rating is the highest rating for a city’s sustainability performance benchmark. Qualifying cities are measured, within a comprehensive framework, according to 14 metrics relating to the energy and water sector, waste treatment, transportation, human experience, education, prosperity, equality, health, and safety. In line with UAE’s commitment to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, the UAE Vision 2021, and the Green Agenda 2030, Dubai’s top leadership adopts the best policing applications through initiatives and projects based on scientific strategies and plans that anticipate future challenges. This has led to great progress in the clean energy sector.

2.5 Air New Zealand Wins Deloitte’s Sustainable Business Leadership AwardSource: Deloitte, New Zealand (date of information: 2019)Link: Deloitte Top 200 Award Winners Announced for 2019Link: 2019 Deloitte Top 200 Celebrates Kiwi Businesses Shaping the FutureApplication/Key learning points: The 2019 Deloitte Top 200 award winners and finalists were chosen from New Zealand’s top companies in recognition of their focus on shaping the future. With the award finalists specialising in transport, energy, data, and retail in the business arena, the awards celebrated the accomplishments of the companies that will shape the next 30 years. The Sustainable Business Leadership award was given to Air New Zealand for its exceptional governance, leadership and accountability. 2.6 Huawei Wins GLOMO Tech of the Future Award Source: AIthority, United States (date of information: 2020)Link: Huawei Atlas 900 AI Cluster Wins the GSMA GLOMO Tech of the Future AwardApplication/Key learning points: The GLOMOs (Global Mobile Awards) are regarded as the “Oscars” of the mobile industry. The Global System Mobile Association awarded Huawei’s Atlas 900 AI cluster with the Tech of the Future Award. Atlas 900 is the world’s fastest AI training cluster. The award recognises technology that is ahead of its time and reshapes the world, highlighting dynamic innovation and technology. 2.7 Shaping Europe’s Digital Future: 5G GLOMO AwardsSource: European Commission, Germany, Finland (date of information: 2019)Link: European Companies Win All Three 5G GLOMO Awards at MWC19 BarcelonaApplication/Key learning points: With 4G soon becoming a thing of the past, three European companies showed their remarkable project strategies and took home all three 5G Awards at the Mobile World Congress 2019. Deutsche Telekom was recognised for its leading role in 5G roll out and ecosystems, and received the European 5G Pioneer Award. Nokia won the inaugural 5G Leadership Award, and the 5G Industry Partnership Award went to the Hamburg Port Authority, Deutsche Telekom, and Nokia for the first large-scale industrial commercial 5G trial.

2.8 Hexagon Wins World Smart City AwardSource: Informed Infrastructure, United States (date of information: 2019)Link: Hexagon Wins World Smart City AwardApplication/Key learning points: With entries from 54 countries worldwide, and a total of 450 proposals in the seven categories, Hexagon was recognised as the recipient of the prestigious World Smart City Award (Urban Environment Award category) at the Smart City Expo World Congress, 2019. The Congress aims to empower cities and collectivise urban modernisation across the globe, creating a better future for all. Hexagon uses technologies to shape urban and production ecosystems to become increasingly connected and autonomous – ensuring a scalable, sustainable future. Hexagon’s unique efforts to connect satellite and operational data to trigger predictive maintenance for Hera, a company which is among Italy’s largest multi-utilities impressed the awarding panel. 2.9 Connecting Bristol (CB) Strategy Recognised at World Smart City Awards Source: Connecting Bristol, United Kingdom (date of information: 2019)Download (PDF): Connecting Bristol: Laying the Foundations for a Smart, Well-Connected Future Application/Key learning points: The CB proposal was one of the six finalists in the City Award category at the World Smart City Awards, 2019. It outlines ambitions to deliver digital foundations and develop world-class infrastructure to transform Bristol into a fair and inclusive city. This 36-page document explains the CB blueprint for the future.

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2.10 Making a Smart City: Best Practices Across Europe Source: EU Smart Cities Information System, Europe (date of information: 2017)Download (PDF): Empowering Smart Solutions for Better CitiesApplication/Key learning points: This 256-page publication brings together best practices from more than 80 cities across 19 countries. It highlights European success stories told with a technological focus in energy, mobility and transport, as well as information and communication technology (ICT); it emphasises the impact the projects have had on their communities. The publication also presents the economic barriers, legal challenges, and social issues these cities may have faced, and shares solutions and lessons learned from their experiences. By presenting projects from a wide range of countries and sectors, it offers the widest possible collection of replication opportunities to help future project managers, technical experts, and urban planners. The European Commission’s Future-proofing the EU: 2020 Strategic Foresight Report is also a worthwhile read.

3. How have organisations reached high levels of success through strategic foresight and future shaping? 3.1 Shell Scenarios from Around the WorldSource: Shell, Netherlands (date of information: 2019, 2017)Link (video): Shell Scenarios in FilmApplication/Key learning points: Scenarios are not predictions of the future. They are stories about how the future might look, and are underpinned by models to provide logic and rigour to these possibilities. Shell has been a pioneer in developing scenarios to explore the future and deepen its strategic thinking for almost 50 years. Here is a selection of interesting short films to introduce and explain Shell Scenarios. The videos are excellent examples of why and how scenarios should be designed. In addition, important questions about Sky, Shell’s latest scenario, and how it meets the goals of the Paris Agreement are explored. Link (video): New Lenses on Future CitiesApplication/Key learning points: In this two-minute video, Shell’s first New Lens Scenarios looked at 500 cities around the world to explore how individual cities might evolve more sustainably.

Link: Global Supply ModelApplication/Key learning points: The Global Supply Model tool enables the Shell Scenarios team to explore future oil and gas production potential as far as the year 2100, allowing the company to explore key uncertainties in areas such as technology innovation and geopolitical stresses.

Download (PDF): China’s Gas Development StrategiesApplication/Key learning points: This 515-page joint study examines how natural gas might evolve as a mainstream energy source in China. It is a good alternative to coal, being cleaner, more efficient, and easier to transport and store. China is aiming to strategically increase the share of gas in its energy mix from 5.8 per cent in 2014 to 10 per cent in 2020, and 15 per cent in 2030.

Download (PDF): Shell Energy Scenarios GermanyApplication/Key learning points: Experts developed two possible energy transition scenarios—Winning the Marathon and Slowing Momentum—looking at how Germany’s future energy pathways might evolve in response to societal, economic, political, and technological changes or drivers.

3.2 Futures Thinking in Asia and the Pacific: Why Foresight Matters for Policy MakersSource: Asian Development Bank (ADB), Philippines (date of information: 2020)Download (PDF): Futures Thinking Asia Pacific - Why Foresight Matters for Policy Makers Application/Key learning points: This handbook shows how ADB piloted futures thinking and foresight to understand entry points to support transformational change and finance the future of Asia and the Pacific region. Futures thinking and foresight is a powerful planning approach that can help the region meet economic, political, social, and environmental and climate change challenges. This 108-page publication compiles lessons from an ADB initiative and workshops to apply futures and foresight tools in Armenia, Cambodia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, China, the Philippines, and Timor-Leste. Futures terminology is introduced, as well as specific tools such as emerging issues analysis, scenario planning, and backcasting.

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3.3 Strategic Foresight in SingaporeSource: Riigikogu, Estonia (date of information: 2019)Link: The Role of Strategic Foresight in SingaporeLink (video): Aaron Maniam - Singapore’s Experiences with ForesightLink (video): Arenguseirest Singapuris (in English)Application/Key learning points: The first nine-minute video by Aaron Maniam, former head of Singapore’s Centre for Strategic Futures, is a contribution to the 2016 European Political Strategy Centre (ESPAS) annual conference - Global Trends to 2030: Society and Governance. The second five-minute video interview shares his ideas on the role of strategic foresight in Singapore.

3.4 Foresight for Governance in SingaporeSource: Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, New Zealand (date of information: 2019)Download (PDF): Foresight for Governance in Singapore Application/Key learning points: The governance context has become more challenging in Singapore. This 18-page PowerPoint presentation shows the government’s foresight planning for governance. The Prime Minister’s Office Strategy Group (Singapore) has dedicated teams focused on whole-of-government and sector-level strategic planning, as well as crosscutting areas such as population and climate change policies. Established in 2009, the Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) houses the Singapore government’s foresight capabilities. The CSF structure and dissemination of foresight into the strategic planning cycle, scenario planning process, foresight methods training, and customised workshops, as well as other functions and efforts of the organisation have been set out.

3.5 Ambidexterity & Strategic Foresight for Long-Term Marketplace PositioningSource: Institute for Competitive Intelligence, Germany (date of information: 2019)Link (video): Innovation, Ambidexterity and Strategic ForesightApplication/Key learning points: This 45-minute webinar examines case studies from companies old and new, including three in-depth analyses of companies (Google, The Walt Disney Company, and Rolls-Royce). Joana Lenkova, the host, is as former Disney strategist and futurist, and she explains how to navigate through volatile, complex, and ambiguous business environments via innovation, ambidexterity and strategic foresight.

3.6 Future Foresight in the United Arab EmiratesSource: Ministry of Cabinet Affairs & the Future, United Arab Emirates (date of information: 2019)Link: Shaping the FutureApplication/Key learning points: The UAE Future Foresight strategy involves building models for the health, educational, developmental, and environmental sectors, the harmonisation of the current governmental policies, as well as building national capacities in the field of future foresight, establishing international partnership, laboratories and launching research reports on the future of the various sectors in the UAE.

Link: UAE Future Foresight StrategyApplication/Key learning points: This six-page document presents the UAE’s stages for shaping futures, as well as 15 future priority sectors and their implementation mechanisms.

Link: UAE’s Fourth Industrial Revolution StrategyApplication/Key learning points: Explore the UAE’s Fourth Industrial Revolution Strategy, the first of its kind globally, designed to provide a practical framework for policymakers and support national efforts.

Link: Future Outlook: 100 Global Trends for 2050Application/Key learning points: What will the world look like in 2050? The Prime Minister’s Office at the UAE Ministry of Cabinet Affairs & The Future, in collaboration with the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies, has developed this visually and intellectually engaging 132-page book with multiple objectives under nine themes.

Link: Seven Future National Strategies in Vital Sectors of the UAEApplication/Key learning points: The seven future strategies are in the sectors of advanced skills strategy; Emirates advanced science strategy; the UAE strategy for artificial intelligence (AI); the national strategy for food security; the national employment strategy; the UAE cultural agenda; and, the national quality of life framework.

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3.7 From Ancient History to a Transformed Future: Can Armenia Leapfrog?Source: Journal of Future Studies, Taiwan (date of information: 2019)Link: From Ancient History to a Transformed Future: Can Armenia Leapfrog?Application/Key learning points: This is a fascinating article in the Journal of Futures Studies by Sohail Inayatullah, UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies. The simple examples and applications relating to Armenian strategic foresight scenarios and articulate language will make this read easy to follow. Questions about Armenian cities and the country were explored by senior advisors to the Armenian government, as well as mayors and governors, and executives from the ADB, where four workshops were facilitated by the UNESCO Chair. The workshops applied methods such as the emerging issues analysis, scenario planning, and causal layered analysis to create alternative and preferred futures.

3.8 Japanese Government Scenario Projects Source: Graduate School of Public Policy: University of Tokyo, Japan (date of information: 2015)Download (PDF): Scenario Projects in Japanese Government: Twenty Years of Experience, Five Tales from the Front LineApplication/Key learning points: How does scenario planning in government differ from scenario planning in the corporate world? This paper considers five projects from Japan – four from the public sector and one from the private sector. It presents possible solutions and other observations surrounding scenario planning, and shares the author’s professional experiences with peer scenario planning practitioners. The five scenario projects discussed and analysed include a CEO firing himself, the nuclear issue, and urban planning.

3.9 Megatrends, Scenarios, and Implications for Regional AustraliaSource: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia (date of information: 2017)Link (PDF): Strategic Foresight for Regional Australia: Megatrends, Scenarios, and ImplicationsApplication/Key learning points: CSIRO aims to shape the future by using science to solve real issues to unlock a better future for its community, economy, and the planet. Using a strategic foresight approach, this 88-page case study report identifies megatrends and plausible future scenarios for living, working, and investing in regional Australia in 2040. The report analyses in detail the social, economic, environmental, technological, and institutional trends that have played out both in Australia and internationally over the past decades, and which affect the regions and their development. These individual trends are grouped as five megatrends – major influences that have driven change in the past and are expected to shape change into the future. The report describes four scenarios that will help governments to determine how best to connect regional Australia through investment in infrastructure, communications, and trade relationships.

3.10 Foresight at Fiskars Group Source: Futures Platform Ltd., Finland (date of information: 2019)Link: Foresight at Fiskars GroupApplication/Key learning points: Satu Kalliokulju, head of Consumer Excellence at Fiskars Group, talks about consumer futures at the organisation. The company was founded in 1649, making it the oldest company in Finland. Their strategy is to build a family of iconic lifestyle brands. Fiskars uses three main planning horizons, with the futures work being different in each of the three.

3.11 The Case of Lindström and Roger StudioSource: Futures Platform Ltd., Finland (date of information: 2019)Link: Using Strategic Foresight to Design the Future Customer ExperienceApplication/Key learning points: This article explains why Lindström, a 175-year-old textiles company, decided to conduct a future deep dive to better understand future changes and predict what work and customer behaviour will look like in 2025. Jussi Leskinen, director of Customer Experience Management and Operations at Lindström, discusses the value of strategic foresight to design the future customer experience.

“The future cannot be predicted, but futures can be invented.” —Dennis Gabor, Nobel Laureate, Physics

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4. What research has been undertaken into strategic foresight and future shaping? 4.1 Global Trends to 2030: Challenges and Choices for EuropeSource: European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS), (date of information: 2019, 2018) Download (PDF): ESPAS Report 2019: Global Trends to 2030 - Challenges and Choices for EuropeApplication/Key learning points: ESPAS is an inter-institutional collaboration among top European officials, which monitors global trends and offers strategic foresight to the EU’s decision makers. The ESPAS Global Trends to 2030 report aims to support policy and decision makers as they prepare for and anticipate the world up to 2030. It extrapolates insights from current global trends; explores some of the key uncertainties that will shape Europe’s future; and, better anticipates some of the choices and decisions that might confront Europe in the coming decade. The 52-page report seeks to pull together available evidence for what might be called a European reality-check.

Link (video): #ESPAS18: Conference VideoDownload (PDF): ESPAS 2018 Annual Conference Global Trends to 2030: Shaping the Future in a Fast-Changing WorldApplication/Key learning points: To stimulate thinking about the key trends that will shape the world to 2030 – and their possible implications for the EU – the European Political Strategy Centre has put together a collection of more than 35 original, insightful and forward-looking essays authored by global thought leaders, foresight practitioners and strategists who spoke at the 2018 ESPAS Annual Conference Global Trends to 2030: Shaping the Future in a Fast-Changing World. This 76-page report has contributions from two major perspectives: the Future of Democracy and Governance and the Future of Economics, Society and Global Power.

4.2 How Leading Firms Build a Superior Position in Markets of the FutureSource: Research Gate-Aarhus University, Denmark (date of information: 2018)Download (PDF): Corporate Foresight Benchmarking Report 2018Application/Key learning points: This 21-page research paper by René Rohrbeck, director of the Chair for Foresight, Innovation and Transformation at the EDHEC Business School, France, and other strategic management experts and scientists shows that future-prepared “vigilant” firms enjoy above-average profitability and market capitalisation growth. It presents ways in which such preparedness can be achieved via the systematic application of future preparation activities—particularly perceiving, prospecting, and probing—as part of the strategic leadership function. The Corporate Foresight Maturity Model and a framework to measure it can be found on pp 7-8.

4.3 Hot Topics on Future Trends for your Corporate StageSource: Prescient, United States (date of information: 2019)Link (video): 4 Hot Topics on Future Trends for Your Corporate StageApplication/Key learning points: In this series of four two-minute videos, Prescient CEO Amy Zalman shares four important and critical trends that should be a part of corporate strategic discussions, but which haven’t yet been discussed enough.

Download (PDF): At a Glance - Automation and Unemployment Trends & ForecastsApplication/Key learning points: Potential job losses from automation are not a new concern, but the issue has spiked in the last few years with multiple studies that forecast the effects of automation on the future of work. This compilation of the results of these studies includes complete PDF document links so you can capture at a glance and in-depth how widespread and different the predictions really are (from today to 2066).

4.4 Strategic Foresight and Innovation ManagementSource: Social Science Research Network, United States (date of information: 2018)Link: Entrepreneurship, Innovation and Strategic Foresight: How Entrepreneurs Engage the Future as OpportunityApplication/Key learning points: This 30-page study investigates how entrepreneurs and innovators engage the future. It also reflects on how strategic foresight can contribute to innovation and entrepreneurship. The study essentially brings to the surface a number of alarming revelations about the relationship between entrepreneurship, leadership, innovation, and the future.

Source: Research Gate, Germany (date of information: 2017)Download (PDF): Strategic Foresight for Innovation Management: A Review and Research AgendaApplication/Key learning points: Drawing on an exhaustive sample of 258 academic publications dating from 1990 to 2014, this paper provides a comprehensive review of strategic foresight and its influence on innovation.

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4.5 Future of the Classroom: Emerging Trends in K-12 Education - Global EditionSource: Google for Education, United States (date of information: 2019)Download (PDF): Future of the Classroom - Emerging Trends in K-12 EducationApplication/Key learning points: The COVID-19 pandemic has forced schools and universities to migrate into virtual classrooms. Education is evolving at a faster pace than at any other period in recent history. Because of this, it is more important than ever to understand how and where it is changing so that educators and schools can support students to prepare for challenges and careers that do not exist today. K-12 indicates the range of years of supported primary and secondary education, i.e. from kindergarten to 12th grade. This 57-page report identifies and examines eight research-based trends in K-12 education from around the world, defining the educational experience of tomorrow.

Link: Emerging Educational Trends by CountryApplication/Key learning points: Explore country by country, how education is evolving across the globe with these individual reports. The featured countries include Australia, Brazil, Canada, Japan, Spain, the United Kingdom, The United States, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, and Nordic countries.

5. What tools and methods are used to achieve high levels of success in strategic foresight and future shaping?

5.1 The Great Pause: Global Foresight SummitSource & Link: Global Foresight Summit, (date of information: 2020)Application/Key learning points: The first Global Foresight Summit was held virtually in April 2020. It was started during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns by Fast-Forward Thinking, a global futures intelligence and strategic foresight consultancy, as an initiative to help educate people around the globe during a time of global confinement. It brought together major voices and names in the field. The Summit is a not-for-profit initiative aiming to increase futures literacy, break thinking silos and raise awareness in futures intelligence, strategic foresight, and futures thinking. It is an open initiative for government policymakers, business leaders, strategists, innovators, scientists, and researchers.

5.2 Introduction to Foresight ToolsSource: Digital, Internet, Materials & Engineering Co-Creation, Finland (date of information: 2017)Download (PDF): A Cookbook for Predicting the FutureApplication/Key learning points: This 43-page “cookbook” provides an easy way to find suitable and appropriate tools and methods to apply during different phases of foresight. It is not intended to be a scientific end-product but rather a practical handbook for conducting foresight activities in any business. Eighteen tools are showcased, including Business Model Canvas, Business Model Wheel, Futures Wheel, Impact Probability Matrix, Porter Five Forces Analysis, Horizons Framework, and Value Proposition Canvas.

5.3 Foresight ToolsSource: Prescient, United States (date of information: 2019)Download (PDF): Using Choice Architecture to Strengthen Your Organisational Transformation StrategyApplication/Key learning points: This resource provides a checklist of the many ways that employee and stakeholder choices may be nudged toward transformation for future success. These can take the form of new initiatives, changed policies or even a changed physical environment.

Download (PDF): 7 Critical Assumptions for 21st Century Strategic PlanningApplication/Key learning points: This infographic compares the assumptions of 20th century planning against those of the 21st century. It is an easy way of making sure your planning is based in today’s realities, not those of the last century. It also makes a great prompt for assessing how up-to-date your team’s assumptions are by seeing where you land on the spectrum.

Download (PDF): How Well Does Your Team Recognise Weak Signals of Change?Application/Key learning points: This quick diagnostic can help you identify opportunities for your team to identify weak signals and incorporate collective insights into planning.

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Download (PDF): Think Like a Futurist Guide - 5 Keys to Developing a Futurist MindsetApplication/Key learning points: Thinking like a futurist can help you develop more productive visions of the future; generate options for action that help you shape the future; see patterns in the present that may produce new opportunities; use uncertainty to your advantage, rather than seeing it as a risk; and, manage surprises more readily. This guide has a compilation of five of the most important futurist mindset pointers, with expert opinions to expand the point.

Download (PDF): 4 Steps to TransformationApplication/Key learning points: How can you move your organisation from talking about the need for transformation to activities that will get you there? This tactical guide provides concrete ideas and ways to check your progress that you can begin implementing today.

5.4 UK Government Futures ToolkitSource: Government Office for Science, United Kingdom (date of information: 2017)Download (PDF): The Futures Toolkit: Tools for Futures Thinking and Foresight across UK GovernmentApplication/Key learning points: The Futures Toolkit provides a set of tools to help embed long-term strategic thinking within the policy process; it also explains how to ensure they have a real impact. It is intended for policy officials and analysts across government. The 116-page toolkit summarises what futures thinking is and how it can be used in policymaking, and describes a series of tools that policymakers can use to manage uncertainty and identify future actions. The tools vary in the expertise needed to use them, with tools for beginners through to tools for experts. Government and industry specialists have contributed to its development and have provided case studies to illustrate the tools. 5.5 Innovation, Deep Uncertainty, and Strategic ForesightSource: Smeal College of Business, United States (date of information: 2018)Link (webinar): Innovation, Deep Uncertainty, and Strategic ForesightApplication/Key learning points: The panel explores how deep uncertainty influences business, government policy, and societal decision making about innovations. The 58-minute discussion was focused on how strategic foresight might translate into actionable insights about risks and opportunities, especially for breakthrough innovators. The discussion also highlights examples that cut across economies to include transportation, communications, energy, biomedical, and consumer offerings. 5.6 Playbook for Strategic Foresight and InnovationSource: Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology LUT, Finland (date of information: 2013)Link (PDF): Playbook for Strategic Foresight and InnovationApplication/Key learning points: Though slightly dated, this document is an excellent guide to modelling, designing, and leading your company’s next radical innovation. This 256-page playbook is packed with multiple methods and techniques, step-by-step instructions, tips, and examples. Multiple case studies are presented throughout the playbook for deeper insight into how various organisations have applied the methods or approached long-range planning.

5.7 Trades Unions Should Practice Foresight to Shape the Future of WorkSource: Equal Times, Belgium (date of information: 2019)Link: Here’s Why Trades Unions Should Practice Foresight to Shape the Future of WorkApplication/Key learning points: Aida Ponce Del Castillo, a researcher working on foresight and technology trends at the European Trade Union Institute for Research, shares examples from Belgium, Canada, United Kingdom, Sweden, and Denmark to show how foresight can be used to develop the internal operational processes of trades unions and improve the services they offer to their members. She also presents five convincing reasons why trades unions should practice foresight.

5.8 Critical Thinking is Key to Shape the FutureSource: Futures Platform Ltd., Finland (date of information: 2017)Link: Why Critical Thinking is Key for Shaping the FutureApplication/Key learning points: “In the next 10 years, 40% of the Fortune 500 Companies will be gone,” says Richard Foster of Yale University. This article by Willow Pryor, a professional futurist, consultant and facilitator of futures thinking workshops, draws our attention to the biggest risk facing today’s successful organisations. It is not a downturn in quarterly profits; it is their complete disappearance. This publication will help decode the global challenges and beliefs that influence how we stay relevant in a changing world, and provides answers to help you shape your preferred future.

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5.9 Strategic Foresight for Future-Ready Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)Source: LinkedIn, United States (date of information: 2018)Link (video): The Use of Strategic Foresight for Adaptive and Future-Ready SDG StrategiesApplication/Key learning points: Set in 2015 by the United Nations General Assembly and intended to be achieved by the year 2030, SDGs are a collection of 17 interdependent global goals designed to be a “blueprint to achieve a better and more sustainable future for all.” Arndt Husar, a global advisor on strategic foresight, innovation and emerging technologies, and other speakers provide an overview of the concepts of alternative futures and strategic foresight. It is an easy way to get some basic futures literacy and identify areas in which foresight approaches might be applied.

5.10 Empowered Futures for the 2030 Agenda Source: Issuu, United States (date of information: 2018)Link: Foresight Manual - Empowered Futures for the 2030 Agenda Application/Key learning points: This practical manual by Max Everest-Philips, director of the United Nations Development Programme’s Global Centre for Public Service Excellence, introduces strategic foresight as an important practice in the context of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Noting the resource constraints in developing country contexts, it proposes light-touch and low-cost methods. This 50-page manual provides a concise overview of the use of foresight for SDGs implementation and concrete suggestions and tips on how to effectively employ foresight at different levels of the policy cycle. It ends with a review of the most widely used current foresight techniques.

5.11 AI: The Future of Work? Work of the Future! Source: European Political Strategy Centre, European Union (date of information: 2019)Download (PDF): Artificial Intelligence Report: The Future of Work? Work of the Future!Application/Key learning points: AI and robotisation have transformed our daily lives. In this 160-page study, Michel Servoz, a senior policy adviser at the EU, asks what recent developments in AI and robotisation foreshadow for the economy, businesses and jobs. Should we be worried or excited? Where will jobs be destroyed or new ones created? The policy choices and considerations explored in the report are relevant for policymakers at all levels of government.

5.12 Successful ForesightSource: Futures Platform Ltd., Finland (date of information: 2020, 2019)Link (PDF): Key Success Factors of a Foresight ProgrammeApplication/Key learning points: This 28-page e-book introduces and discusses the Foresight Development Framework. The approach is based on the consultative experience, and it also relies on the research into how consulting companies, public organisations and large enterprises conduct foresight activities on a global scale.

Link: Strategic Foresight vs. Competitive IntelligenceApplication/Key learning points: For many professionals, the difference between strategic foresight and competitive intelligence can be confusing. The two are alike only in some aspects; both disciplines serve different purposes and are done differently. This article explains the differences between strategic foresight and competitive intelligence, and why optimal decision making requires both.

Link: Why Foresight Is Needed in the Public Leadership SpaceApplication/Key learning points: This article speaks about moving from risk adversity to calculated risk, horizon scanning, cultivating a foresight culture within the team, and breaking down the silos.

Link: The World After COVID-19Application/Key learning points: The radar is a powerful foresight tool and is used in this case to display a holistic view of the world after COVID-19 with important drivers of change, and the latest news regarding them. On this radar you can see all aspects of the change, which will help decision makers plan for the future. The news on the topics refreshes daily and the radar is constantly being updated by a team of futurists.

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6. How can strategic foresight and future shaping be measured? 6.1 Measuring Strategic ForesightSource: National Academy of Public Administration, United States (date of information: 2016)Link: Strategic Foresight Is a Measurable ActivityApplication/Key learning points: The demand for measurable outcomes has historically posed an enduring challenge for strategic foresight projects, both within and beyond governments. Once we grasp that the activity of strategic foresight is to help leaders make better decisions and to more powerfully shape the future, we can also better grasp what we might measure. Presented here are a few ways in which the government’s effectiveness might be measured.

6.2 Evaluating Futures Work and ForesightSource: Sitra, Finland (date of information: 2019)Link: How Can Futures Work and Foresight Be Evaluated?Application/Key learning points: Sitra produces long-term foresight data in anticipation of the future. It also aims to support Finnish society in interpreting and making use of this data. What do we evaluate when we assess the value and merit of futures work? In general, foresight and evaluation are linked by a common goal, which is to support and expand the knowledge base used for decision making. The two main tenets of this work are described in this commentary. 6.3 Corporate Foresight and Impact on Firm PerformanceSource: ResearchGate, Denmark (date of information: 2018)Download (PDF): Benchmarking of Organisational Future PreparednessApplication/Key learning points: René Rohrbeck from the School of Business and Social Sciences at Aarhus University, conducted longitudinal research to empirically test the assumption that corporate foresight enables superior firm performance; 83 multinational European firms participated. The companies had organisation-wide corporate foresight practices and had annual revenues of more than €100 million across industries; representatives from the chemical, financial services, telecom, energy and utilities, healthcare and pharmaceutical, automotive, manufacturing, retail and consumer business, and transportation industries took part. A longitudinal study is an observational research project in which data is gathered for the same subjects repeatedly over a period of time which can extend over the years or decades. The organisations’ future preparedness in 2008 and its impact on firm performance in 2015 were measured. On pp. 6-8 of this 31-page document, you will find ways to measure corporate foresight maturity, and on pp. 9-11, ways to measure corporate foresight need. The relationship between future preparedness in 2008 and firm performance in 2015 is on p. 15.

6.4 Assessing the Maturity Level of Foresight in Polish CompaniesSource: Springer Link, Switzerland (date of information: 2016)Download (PDF): Assessing the Maturity Level of Foresight in Polish Companies: a Regional PerspectiveApplication/Key learning points: This 13-page research study is based on a foresight maturity model which besides the traditionally associated foresight components such as environmental scanning, takes into consideration aspects such as leadership, collective vision building, and planning. Anna Kononiuk, Białystok University of Technology, and Anna Sacio-Szymańska, a senior research scientist at Innovation Strategies Department of the ITe-PIB, aim to assess foresight maturity of companies based in Poland’s Podlaskie province, one of the least developed regions in Europe. Pilot survey research was carried out among 134 production and services companies to understand their foresight maturity levels. Two management concepts are offered as a way to reproduce this.

“Strategy is about shaping the future.” —Max McKeown, English writer

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7. What do business leaders say about strategic foresight and future shaping? “Get closer than ever to your customers. So close that you tell them what they need well before they realise it themselves.” —Steve Jobs, founder and former CEO, Apple

“Winning in business is not about being number one – it’s about who gets to the future first.” —Gary Hamel, visiting professor, London Business School

“Lots of companies don’t succeed over time. What do they fundamentally do wrong? They usually miss the future.” —Larry Page, co-founder, Google, and former CEO, Alphabet Inc.

“Much like the rhythm of a beating heart, the sounds of tomorrow create a rhythm for our lives today. The future creates the present.” —Thomas Frey, American futurist, founder and executive director, Colorado DaVinci Institute

“The future is an endless cycle. It neither begins at a finite point nor ends once something has been accomplished. Likewise, the fluidity of time—not chronological time, but how we experience technological change—must stay at the forefront of our thought processes whenever we’re planning for the future.” —Amy Webb, professor of strategic foresight at the NYU Stern School of Business

“Strategic foresight is not a magic formula that lifts some of the burden from policymakers and bureaucrats when juggling a large number of pressing policy issues simultaneously. […] It is a capacity that organisations on every level of society should develop to distinguish important signals from noise and to prepare for uncertainty and disruption.” —Stefanie Babst, head of the Strategic Analysis Capability for the NATO secretary general

“The future cannot be predicted, but futures can be invented.” —Dennis Gabor, winner of the Nobel Prize for Physics, 1971

“In a time of drastic change, it is the learners who inherit the future. The learned find themselves equipped to live in a world which no longer exists.” —Eric Hoffer, American social writer and philosopher

“You can’t just ask people what they want and build it, by the time you’re finished, they want something new.” —Steve Jobs, founder, and former CEO, Apple

“The best way to predict the future is to create it.” —Abraham Lincoln, 16th president of the United States

“Patience and foresight are the two most important qualities in business.” —Henry Ford, American business magnate and founder, Ford Motor Company

“Strategy is about shaping the future.” —Max McKeown, English writer and researcher, specialising in innovation strategy, leadership and culture

“Business, more than any other occupation, is a continual dealing with the future; it is a continual calculation, an instinctive exercise in foresight.” —Henry R. Luce, American magazine magnate

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8. Conclusion The current COVID-19 crisis has perhaps put the need for strategic foresight and future shaping under the harshest of spotlights. While little can be done about a pandemic racing around the world, a great deal can be done about how organisations and businesses prepare and react for it. It is probably a safe bet that most organisations that did not have a pandemic-response plan in place will be developing one as soon as the current crisis has ended.Strategic foresight refers to the discipline of intelligence gathering, predicting what might happen, and either preparing to mitigate against future events or take advantage of them. Future shaping, on the other hand, refers to how organisational policies and processes are influenced or recalibrated to shape and support this predicted future, both within and outside an organisation. To help you situate your own organisation within this context, you will find some great advice from the Gordon Institute of Business Science in South Africa [see Section 1.1], as well as a series of links leading to practical introductions to the subject [1.2]. The OECD has also put together an excellent summary of what constitutes a comprehensive foresight system from a government perspective [1.6].

Learning from successful practitioners is the cornerstone of the BPIR.com approach, and in Section 2 you will find a list of global and regional award winners [2.1], as well as the excellent Retail Week Tech 100 index [2.2], which provides fascinating information about how retailers, tech titans, start-ups and disruptors aim to shape the future. Huawei’s innovative Atlas 900 AI cluster provides another example [2.6], and it received the prestigious Global Mobile Award in recognition of how its technology is ahead of the curve and reshapes the world. In addition, the EU has developed a comprehensive publication to highlight European success stories in developing smart cities [2.10]. It is one thing to know what organisations have done, it is another to know how they have done it. The Shell Scenarios [3.1] explain how one of the world’s leading oil companies have developed scenarios to explore the future and deepen its strategic thinking for the past 50 years. There is an excellent overview of how the Asian Development Bank has adopted futures thinking to meet economic, political, social, and environmental and climate change challenges in the region [3.2], and an excellent overview of strategic foresight in Singapore [3.3]. In the UAE, the Future Foresight Strategy has developed models for the health, educational, developmental, and environmental sectors, and developed a far-reaching Fourth Industrial Revolution Strategy, the first of its kind globally [3.6].

Section 4 provides summaries of research undertaken into strategic foresight and future shaping, and you will find useful examples from the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System [4.1]. From the United States, Prescient shows what the future might hold in terms of unemployment trends following mass automation [4.3], and the future of education is examined for the post-COVID-19 world [4.5]. In Section 5, there are a number of toolkits, including a “cookbook” to predict the future from Finland [5.2], and a guide from the United Kingdom government relating to national-level policymaking [5.4]. Also from Finland is an excellent article explaining why critical thinking is key to shaping the future [5.8]. The best way of understanding your own success is, of course, by measuring how well you have done. To this end, we have provided a series of self-assessment tools, including one from the National Academy of Public Administration in the United States [6.1], and one from the School of Business and Social Sciences at Aarhus University in Denmark [6.3]. Don’t forget that we at BPIR.com are here to help you at every step along the way – it is just one of the numerous benefits available to our members. Surely there can’t be many better ways to shape your organisation’s future!

Disclaimer: Recent information has been included in this report to ensure our readers are kept up to date with the latest research; where possible, permanent links have been provided. At the time of publishing, all links are live. We apologise in advance for any broken links that might occur after publication due to matters beyond our control.

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