White Paper: Comprehensive GOES-R Wildfire Outlooks

John Knaff

The Pieces

FIRE Dynamics Weather/Climate Conditions• Wind• Relative Humidity• Temperatures• Duration• Vertical Profiles/Soundings

The Pieces

FIRE Dynamics Weather/Climate Conditions• SPC takes Fire Dynamics and

applies weather/climate conditions.– Dry thunderstorms and

lighting a great concern

• USFS has a point tool based on the NDFD and produces 7-day forecasts based on that information.

• USFS (www.wfas.net)– Fuel Type– Fuel Conditions– Lightning efficiency– Haines (1988) index

• Vegetation Health (Greenness and Temperature)information from AVHRR/GOES-R

FUEL

Fuel Types National Land Cover Database

Fire Probability

USFS USGS

Fire Probability

NESDIS SPC

Other Factors

Lightning ignition Static Stability

Where We May Contribute (1)

GOES-R/AVHRR Vegetation Health GLM (proxy lightning)

Where We May Contribute (2)

Model Fields/ Synthetic Imagery

• Where/When convection occurs in the model

• Wind, Temperature, RH forecasts

• Conditional forecast products– Dry thunderstorm potential– Lightning– Down draft– Fire laydown/takeoff timing

Satellite/lightning

• Early detection– Lightning strikes– Hot spots– smoke

• Resource Deployment– Manpower

deployment/management– Aircraft planning

• Evacuations

ProposalCreation of a Comprehensive Colorado Wildfire Outlook• Combine

– Fuel type– Fuel vegetation health conditions (GOES-R/AVHRR)

• Greenness• Hotness

– Lightning ignition potential– Meteorological conditions (Model)

• Wind• RH• Stability

– Lightning Occurrence/Convective Forecasts• Produce

– Weekly resource guidance (reduced allocation, normal allocation, increased allocation) • where to put resources in the coming week

– 0-48 hour outlook for new wildfire starts (unlikely, possible, likely, very likely) – New wildfire nowcast (unlikely, possible, likely, very likely) – places to monitor for new starts– Fire growth danger – if a fire develops how rapidly could it grow