Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Where is the Economy Today and Where the
#%^* Is It Going?
Where Are We?Where Are We?
Where Are We?Where Are We?
Where Are We?Where Are We?
Where Are We?Where Are We?
Where Are We?Where Are We?
Where Are We?Where Are We?
Where Are We?Where Are We?
Where Are We?Where Are We?
Earnings ExpectationsEarnings Expectations
Earnings ExpectationsEarnings Expectations
10-Year Treasury Rates10-Year Treasury Rates
13
Low Rates Fuel BuybacksLow Rates Fuel Buybacks
14
Low Rates Fuel BuybacksLow Rates Fuel Buybacks
15
Outside the U.S.Outside the U.S.
Outside the U.S.Outside the U.S.
Outside the U.S.Outside the U.S.
Outside the U.S.Outside the U.S.
Outside the U.S.Outside the U.S.
Global ViewGlobal View
HmmmmmmmHmmmmmmm
HmmmmmmmHmmmmmmm
What’s Ahead?What’s Ahead?
What’s Ahead?What’s Ahead?
VelocityVelocityVelocityVelocityVectorVectorVectorVector
26
Why Am I Here?Why Am I Here?
‣ Editor of Growth & Dividend Report, PowerTrader and PowerOptions Trader
‣ Portfolio Manager, Thematic Growth Portfolio
‣ Assistant Professor, NJCU Business School
‣ Contributor at Forbes.com, Real Money Pro and FoxBusiness.com
‣ Weekly guest at TheStreet TV
‣ Frequent on-air guest
27
Why Am I Here?Why Am I Here?
How’d we doHow’d we do
28
‣ Growth & Dividend Report, PowerTrader and PowerOptions Trader
‣ ~100 double digit winners
‣ 70 triple digit winners
‣ Since May 2012
‣ PowerOptions Trader: 36%; 42 day holding
How?How?• Portfolio manager of the Thematic Growth Portfolio at Fabian
Wealth Management – a thematically driven long only managed portfolio
• Senior Vice President, Equity Research at Friedman Billings Ramsey‣ Honorable mentions in Institutional Investor annual research analyst
rankings ‣ Five-star analyst by Zacks Investment Services ‣ Four-star analyst ranked by Star Mine
• Analyst at Donaldson Lufkin Jenrette and Salomon Brothers
• Quoted extensively in The Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily, The Street, USA Today and other publications; Appeared on Fox Business, CNBC, CNBC Europe, CNNfn, Bloomberg TV
• MBA Finance – Fordham UniversityBS Mathematics; BA Economics – Fairfield University
How?How?
A PowerTrend is a market shift that shapes and impacts consumer behavior, forcing companies to make fundamental changes to their businesses to succeed
A PowerTrend is a market shift that shapes and impacts consumer behavior, forcing companies to make fundamental changes to their businesses to succeed
What is a PowerTrend?What is a PowerTrend?• Economics
Where are we in the economic cycle;?
What is the vector?
Expansion, contraction or stagnation?
Input prices, commodities, inflation
• Demographics
Population dynamics
Jobs and incomes
• Psychographics of consumers and enterprises
Conserving or splurging?
Spending and hiring or cutting and slashing?
What is a PowerTrend?What is a PowerTrend?• Politics and regulatory mandates
Policy, spending and debt
Compliance – emissions, environment, Medicare
• Cyclical vs. Structural shift
Mobile, the Cloud, Social Media, etc.
PCs to smartphones and tablets
Broadband’s implications/opportunities
• Industry evolution and disruptive technologies
Touch, voice, new materials, new processes, etc.
• U.S. and non-U.S.
Global repercussions
Many FactorsMany Factors
33
•Numerous Ecosystem Influencers
Leading Leading Edge Edge
ComponentsComponents
Regulatory Regulatory and and
Standards Standards BodiesBodies
Enterprise & Enterprise & Government Government
SpendingSpending
Global Global VendorsVendors
Raw Material Raw Material and and
Commodity Commodity PricesPrices
Real Real Disposable Disposable
IncomeIncome
Human Human Behavior Behavior
SoftwareSoftware & UI& UI
Data, Data and More DataData, Data and More DataTons of Information for
Context & PerspectiveNews releases, SEC Filings,
Annual ReportsNewspapers, magazinesStudies, white papers and pollsGovernment statistics – U.S.
and otherThird party dataGartner, OECD, World Bank,
UN, and othersManagement
InformationInformation
How Do You… How Do You…
Think DifferentThink Different
Wall Street
Industry
Peer Group
Company
Recommendation
PowerTrend
Catalyst
Affected Companies
Risk vs. Reward
Action
How’d we doHow’d we do
38
‣ Growth & Dividend Report, PowerTrader and PowerOptions Trader
‣ ~100 double digit winners
‣ 70 triple digit winners
‣ Since May 2012
‣ PowerOptions Trader: 36%; 42 day holding
39
Where are we now?Where are we now?
What’s Ahead?What’s Ahead?
• Manufacturing
• Housing
• Consumer
• Inflation and Costs
• Non-U.S.
When Will the Fed Raise Rates?When Will the Fed Raise Rates?
41
Still Many Tailwinds and Pain PointsStill Many Tailwinds and Pain Points
PowerTrendsPowerTrends
PicksPicks
44
‣ Qualcomm (QCOM)
‣ Qualcomm (QCOM)
‣ American Railcar (ARII)
‣ Utilities SPDR (XLU)
‣ March $47 XLU calls
Chris Versace • www.ChrisVersace.com
Salem Eagle BoothSalem Eagle Booth
Salem Eagle Booth #107
Growth & Dividend Report
$249/$99/$77*
PowerOption Trader
$99 1Q/ $1250 yr 47
