IY SMU Publication: The Straits Times, p A34 & A36 Date: 24 July 2010 Headline: When will we vote?

Rime Minister's 0- and a =bar of

I T I S a ~ t M ~ t o p a ~ y . ~ t b t e v e n ~ ~ ~ O r ~ ~ L m l g r l l t l w angtoH&,-.

w I ~ u p M s v i s i t * r i t b t ~ ~Irt tweek,hespohacaaadlyon ~ ~ r ~ ~ t h a f n t h r r af~wolkmhtoSinBPpoartotha l a t e s t o r n r t ~ t f W I a t e m l S ~

w. mtrblp , tha tmt- *tlrrg

pppd out: So abrm'r tha Generul EIec- t h (CB)?

H i s ~ t n r u b l t ~ UIt'rfurt a grrpt mystgg." The Rim Midst= ~ , ~ m d ~ " I h r P c n o t d c d d c d w h m t b ~ w D u l d b e . "

O l l e u n h u d l p ~ h b r ~ ~ &

- - LdS Clare to Micbert.

~ , ~ ~ o i a ~ o l i o n h s & M c m c e b y o n d t M f o r ~ M - h g f o r ~ p w t - w o l ) d ~ ~ i r r

E ' 2 & e s h o o t z bet.

P o 4 * s c t o n l ~ ~ l b P t timing c o d qdl v. Th, h -, 1991 OB l'b gormd w . r h u g M t o k s w w t - f t w u t h e W L d of a fonr-?-long b o o m m d t h a n 4 w 1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ - btm Goh Ch& Tong wrr warmly re-

d F & ? C d t e & u&

bib. As Yah politlePl sciance acdd6mk

When will 3 we vote.

. .

the P W a Camnithe, otuerru: "Our rwoltr will drprad 4 w h 4 t l m r t r u ~ t b e w l i t k a l ~ - we-whempopleuam&ta*rueand h~rgoodrermc4vMisatalrlrc.~

T M r t h o w a h e ~ f t d o w a : ~ are the &-hard q on both sides - pro-PAe rmd pro-op&hb Tbe voters W h b a m ~ t h c ~ r r a t b e y m i d - dkgzoupwhowdfectedbythekmcs o f t I l e d . y a a d ~ p l d g e t ~ ) ~ * ~

s o t h e ~ t i l w i o r ~ ~ p u t y t o hDBdpolkrYIsbantbseamnybuncac- t a i n , m d p e o d s t ~ a b i t ~ .

The %dims Deparhmt is shopping for mobile Internet devices, party activists are gearing up and eledlon talk is heating up, Is the general

eh tkm a r d the corner? What are the possii dates? What considerations might PM Lee H h n Loong take into account when he decides on Polling Day?

Insight joins the specutatian game. --~mraipolrtf*fn- r t n r m a a t ~ t o ~ ~ l y p r o - g p f r t e d o r a l e c t m d ~ .

Undoubtedly, the PAP would *a& r t n t ~ t o c m o u l p t h a t c ~ a a OPtfmrlfmIElm-*

AndPAP'a~ar@etbattharuljng ~ u o u W r e m t t o ~ w b y ~ ~ ~ ~ i a S P n d ~ - w w ? m d w ~ P * ~ ~ - *

ucntr who vote PAP. L d d u g ~ ~ w i u t h * P A P h k

Ha rp*rkhgbsrt? <hwmea!vne-puticrrlulg~uputy

tbrtbseenmEhof its-andalk- e r h g t h e ~ - L h o n ~ t h c ~ - n*k-. Bytmbeadlmrk,Ukugwd~the

.ranyforthePAP*g~a. The fears that h i d Siaypme

% post-~auoarf Day and ~atloaPl my M y , snd post- i TMo is pDlslble window. Bvdget me Youth Olympdc Grms~ M o d should ba a poll date hottie i h d e d ont dmlag ibis m, e snothsr f-I-gcod u the nation Is on a pa th t i c high. of tlm past 10 GEs, j ~ E b a r 9 0 ~ g ~ ~ w ~ B I A ~ ~ r m e ~ 2 e three wen called within thm weeks of tho rally.

~ntathjuatovmamomth~cfftothedydndths i ~ - a l t h ~ ~ s - t h e b u s f ~ r ~ ~ ~ e w d hm nport m, this - that cropged UP. As Aag d r t s ~ q u i t e c c r l d . i Mong Sang, m MP for H a g kaLnGRC, puts It: 'You need

i s m w t h n e t o i r o a o n t t h e ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . r .................................................................................. .....

w m b a t s , such .s the 8th Asia-Burm Miding on Oct4sndOct5bBruss&.~eutPlsotbmonths

DECEMBEWJANUARY 20U IW is a tnditlonnllg popular paiod for elections, with r o u r G ~ h d d & l ~ t w n m o n t b s . I c g l t i c a l l y , ~ l wdirlgsamiresdupdnrlrlg~ysforussasponlng * ,whi lsthspapulPt ion~befn*Wmood. thanks to the holidays and yw-end bormsao. ..................... *........ ....... ......* ..... ..... ................................

'Ihe Budget statement and daeqmt mp~ptlwn debate in Par~tmslrethisgwicddlfaealtfprgodn%tothopoh

JUNE - AUGUST This is too close to the pnddmtial e k c t i i , which must b bald by August. Having tbe two elections so clors togew h a be a st& on ~ogistics and lspvc two lsy govemmsnt~stftotlonsInhbosttbes~metimt.

~kalsothefearthatthstegaUsofoaepo~wU Pffect the results of the other.

. Votas may a h fesl compelled to compswte for the i PAP'S certain victmg in the GB by v o b i for the oppcdug ; caddate dudIlg tlae prelcidential e k c t h

........................................... . ........................ *..*. ...............

? SEPTEMBER - FEBRUARY 2bl2 ' I h t r k n d ~ ~ f t i s t o o h t o t h e d e c t l r m e d ~ ofPebrunry~~~forcomfort.HLtorierlly,tbePAPhap called for a GI3 with less than sx months to s p a only onm - in 1997. Leadug the e l e c t b so late means that the PM has to hold it then regsrdfess d tbe poWcal or emmmk climate.

The counter-argumd, t-, k thst it is butter to h a w the pwpldentinl ekctlon before the GE. T h e k also m c r r s t s a s f o r ~ ~ ~ ~ .

ACHBCKdputrlcctionrrrulttcbowl tM rlnec 1984, t h PAP b hdd study a t ~ ~ h r a - t l d r d r 0 f t h e p o t c l . T b b ! w o ~ n h * t f t ~ h e i t k r d i -

# h t r r " m o n ~ d ~ f m t b e c c ~ f a t t l e h e r a c a n d o f t i M ~ .

httiageconmkf&um&,arlav

E"KE&*&%z: mgsssmdrPAPMP,arbodecbstobe lmed, puts it: "At thia jmlctnm, iB it @ad for a GE? 1 don*t tNQk so, th4 new busbrarw~miwr#.Pu@ermthr pound - th old, tlw ~ c ~ , the ~ ~ - u a ~ r b a u t f . '

o h r t o ~ d k d i a d o d e ~ ~

:Pntr%E3 2k.g"" Of -- The recent flmdn pose yet moth

rlcky &me, SQ% third-term MP Ang ~ s c l y ( ~ K a I l G R c ) . "Ymrnwd oma*tofrmoutthe~.n How long? Sit: mrmttu or so may do

hetrick.heneltonr,ifUit~wll,snd - he YOG too'.

~ t b e m ~ o m b s ~ i ~ t o ~ e t h e B r o r m d ~ t o b 8 em mt not to t% dhissed rre the m--tb.t*Nd h m p o m n s ' b ~ b w t h e ~

d I y h a l d o m t h e t h t t d ' o I ~ ~ 0 f wgort,~tiIePMiaysouthlsoffiDn m d ~ & ! e s w f g o o d * s t ~ - orths*btlMyslaalwd. Says Pasir UW-1 GBC MP

~ ~ ~ , w h o ~ t l l s t h r ~ iw elcetlmu. ' W a W to.* aectionr v h a n ~ m e l a ~ ~ ~ ~ * t h s N l t l o D u l D w I W l g i a a -~ ,* they- f -w.psr - -*

~ l O * O E s , ~ W E # e E l f * d d& threeweelm oftberally -h1991, 988 .ad 19fa.

B u t t h k t i m a m d , t b i r # e n B ~ td&ebopthereCjnetoveradM o t b e r S n g a n d t h e ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ h n S y e t t 0 b a ~ .

Source: The Straits Times O Singapore Press Holdings Limited. Permission required for reproduction.

IY SMU

FlWY PM #I

One notable consideration that springs to mind is tbat under PM he, the PAP will seek to forestall perceptions that it is unduly mfab to the opposition by not giv- ing it enough time to prepare for the GE.

ConventionaI wisdom is that the in- cumbent Is advantaged by its ability to t i elections when the government is ready - and the opposition is not.

But in Singapore where the PAP jugger- naut is so well-oiled and dominatfngly so, ?here would be a backlash if voters per- ceive it to be overly &air to the under- dog opposition.

Indeed, the need to pre-empt cynicism among voters appears to have been part of the the cahWons in 2004. Then, few- er boundaries were redrawn and there was a time lag of two months and three days between the release of the bounde- r l s report and Polling Day.

By comparison, the time lapse in 2001, 1997 and 1991 was 17 days, one month 12 days, and 19 days respectively. PM tee has yet to announce the con-

wning of the committee responsible for drawing up the report. Depufy Prime Min- ister Wong Kan Seng said in Parliament in Msrch: "1 believe he (PM Lee) will give all interested parties and candidates as much time as possible."

Chances are that the PM will give as much notice as in 2006, if not more.

Yet another important factor is the pte- paredness of the PAP itself, in fielding a slate of new candidates.

The party has always considefed self-renewal to be key to its political lon- gevity. In each of the last three elections, it brought in between 18 and 24 new faces to replace re* MPs. h particular, much rides on thi9 com-

ing batch. During the PAP party confer- ence last year, PM Lee said that the next generation of political leaders must be in place by the next GE. This includes S i - pore's fourth prime minister.

Have they been found? Some new faces have been sighted un-

derstudying MPs at the party branches but it seems the talent-scouthg process has yet to be completed.

Some MPs tell Insfght that they have not seen the numbers - usually in the dm- ble digits - who are habitually sent down shortly before elections.

S a p third-term MP Chm So0 Sen (100 Chiat): "If you go by past trends, we will see 10 to 15 new peupk, sometimes more, before the GE. I have not got any indfca- tion (of this) - not many are exposed to the ground yet." Mr Chong concurs, noting that to

Publication: The Straits Times, p A34 & A36 Date: 24 July 2010 Headline: When will we vote?

limbo at around the same period. A thud reason is that "the outcome of

the earlier election may impact upon the

Many factors outcome of the later election", notes Dr Tan of SMU.

As the argument goes, voters may feel compelled to compensate for the PAP'S certain victory In the GE, by voting for the opposing candidate - whoever he may be - duFing the presidential election. at play in If this view holds, the presidentid elec- tion may well precede the GE.

But President S R Nathan's current term ends on Aug 31 next year, and while the Constitution allows for the election to

GE decision be held no more than three months be- fore its expiration, this appears d e l y go@ by past precedents. The three dec- tfans to date were ali scheduled in lste Au- gust.

And if the GE is not held by August, the window of opportunity thereafter

date, he has seen "just four to five" poten- ground to know the candidates would be whittled down to just six tial new faces. better." months before February 20U.

The word is, PM b e is &ill mterview- The question then is, will the PAP ing potential candidates. Practical considerations want to wait till then? Many think not.

The need to train them on the ground "It's cutting it too close and Gordon has become more crucial this t h e , given there are pritctical Brown's example is worth learning the d&oral reforms that will in matters that act as potentiaI signposts on from," says Dr Tan, referring to the smdh GRCs aad more single-seat wards when the GE m ~ y be held. former British prime minister whose La- - and thus mare intense competition. For instance, P M Lee bas commit- to h"&g the GE then bom Party lost the elections in ~ a y .

"These new need to be ex- merits on variaus fronts, such as the 8th of Singaporeans wi' be "The electoral timaable caught up translating into a lower turnout. posed," says Mr Chan. M.-Bluw M a ~ g On with him and he had to call for elections and Od * ~ u t t U consideration is othet by the ,, were Ml Bod '-!% ~ ~ ' r e e W N tht?eIec- in Bwrels' &Is0 be pad icd m v e d m of holding it then, fm &. ln slmllar v*, Lee torate to vote for PAP j u t by logo. With heId that month and fn November. either in December (three GEs have been -t tow untu February 2012 since he the electoral reforms, they would need to Another indicator is the school holi- held then) or during the one-week vaca- know the pound better aad for the days. One view is that the PAP may not ffon fn ~~, .h , would have to accept things as they are

So December or Janu- then."

I sry are seen as possible Certainly, it is not

I btes . If the is not EWIL SMS common practice for the heIrl then, late

February Y a VIEWS PAP to flirt with chance. Under the Constltutbn, three months from the am " and early W c h are out Only once before, in Parliament need not be dl- each parliamentary term. b, became df the Budget your - whn the 1997, did it call elections

with under six months to until fhm r a n f d . h e I W of the deadlines for the tb SW- Ln*ll - b. Its first sitting. Polling Day must : past 10 GEs since Independence mt -ahon debate in bdd md pur - then fall withln three months : the polling days, the economk P,wt. from the date It Is dissolved. : growth for the year and the do think are the Educated guess Thus, the deadllne to hold the : PAPS eventual share of votes. Thus, a second win- ~ 1 1 next GE is flve years and dow of opportunity in ~ mw ~ - 1 1 TAKING all the various

I April or May when Budget -w # rn factors in totality and in Of goodies are handed out, SMS to 9827.- F~ SMS the spirit of the recently

concluded World Cup ~ - ~ r ~ e ~ htting, ~ l s i & t makes

why not after thanywr-' its best educated and cal- culated guess on the date of the GE:

on of an- At the earliest, December or lanusry. horizon: Otherwise, April or May. must be But ultimately for those reading the

tea leaves or susshg out the activitres at d the presidential EeE&l ctpztikFent* It Is* at

I - election too close to each other is undesir- AS Chan ts it: experience

I able, firstlybecause ofthe strain onbgis- has been that in laat two or three CEs, - tics, says former Nominated MP ZuWli ~jrn always t- by surprise.

Bahndm. .We ,+ate, s{ecdate -=epe@4?- Second, It would not be advisable for and then surprise, is here.

STQRWHICS two key government institutions to be in

1 10 POLLS, 10 DATES, 10 RESULTS

Source: The Straits Times O Singapore Press Holdings Limited. Permission required for reproduction.