What is the NHP?

Presented by

Helen Reeves, British Geological Survey

Helen Balmforth, Health and Safety Laboratory

Iain Lisk, UK Met Office

“The Environment Agency and

the Met Office should work

together, through a joint centre,

to improve their technical

capability to forecast, model and

warn against all sources of

flooding.”

Sir Michael Pitt

Cost of insured losses £3.25Bn

Events that started NHP – 2007 Floods

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Events that started NHP – Other events

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We need to ensure …”that a single source of real-time imaging is

available to help in the management of emergencies in the future”

“I see this as an extremely important opportunity to build a platform

that puts effective data analysis and presentation at the centre of

helping government react quickly to major disruptive events”Sir Mark Walport , February 2013

UK Government interest in hazards

Natural Hazard Partnership – Start1st December 2011 Strategic direction of NHP agreed.

December 2011 – MoU signed by 10 public sector chief executives.

Agreed that the NHP is focussed on improving delivery of natural hazard information and advice by public sector bodies.

NHP to be Led by the NHP Steering Group and delivered through four working groups.

• Hazard Impact Modelling Group (HIM Group)

• Scientific Strategy Group

• Communications & Outreach Group.

• Hazard Advice & Services Group

Natural Hazard Partnership – Projects

“What can we do in partnership to work more efficiently, delivernew capabilities, products & services?”

Over 40 ideas identified – 4 selected to work on between 2012 to 2015.

1. Daily Hazard Assessment2. Prepared Scientific Advice3. Contribute to National Risk Assessment4. Hazard Impact Modelling strategy & initial studies

Objectives:

• Provide an at a glance ‘All Hazards’ summary • Issue daily at 2pm to Partners only• To cover the following hazards with

contributions from all partners:• Flood • Weather• Volcanic Ash• Space weather• Wildfires• Geological hazards

Multi Hazard Strategic Daily Assessment

Objectives:

• The provision of pre-prepared scientific advice packs for all emergency responders

• To cover the following hazards with contributions from all partners:

• Drought• Snow/Ice• Wildfire• Wind• Inland flooding• Geohazards

Prepared Scientific Advice

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/nhp/science-noteshttp://www.bgs.ac.uk/research/earthHazards/geohazardNotes.html

Hazard Impact Model

Adding the Impact – who and what is effected

Identification of receptors –people, property, infrastructure

Estimation of vulnerability

Modelling of Impact

HIM Members -

Wind hazard Landslide susceptibility

Flooding

What we had in 2011: the start

National Population Database

Rainfall

Landslides Work Package,

BGS

Surface Water Flooding

Work Package, CEH

Hazard Impact Model – Hazardhttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/devolved/scotland-flood-forecasting-service

Development of hazard footprints for three priority

hazards as part of individual work packages

Wind Work Package, MetOffice

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-16392074

Hazard Impact Model - Vulnerability & Impact

Risk (of Impact) = Hazard x Vulnerability (vulnerability includes exposure)

• Linking vulnerability and impact information with hazards

• Vulnerability Research - developing Impact Framework

• Development of prototype HIM – proof of concept

1) SWF HIM being developed by HSL and CEH for FFC

2) Vehicle Overturning HIM being developed by MO

HSL developing an Impact Library concept

Proof of Concept HIM

• SWF - CEH hazard footprint, HSL impact information

- PoC HIM developed, undergoing testing & initial verification.

- Currently case study approach

- Research report proposing methodology for

operational SWF HIM delivered to FFC

• High Winds - Vehicle Overturning HIM being

trialled in house at MO for NSWWS

- Models for Bridges and Camp sites

being developed

• Landslides - Hazard definition ongoing

- Development of landslides domains

- Once these defined domain

thresholds will be developed

Surface Water Flooding (SWF)

Updated Flood Map for Surface Water UFMfSW (EA)

Hazard FootprintBased on G2G surface runoff

Hazard Impact Outputs

Impact Library(HSL)

National Receptor Dataset (EA)

National Population Database (HSL)

Ensemble rainfall forecasts (MO)

Other impact datasets …

Demand for more robust, accurate and timely forecast and alert information on Surface Water Flooding (SWF) and its impacts at local, regional and national scales

Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) is leading the SWF Hazard Impact Model with the Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) providing expertise on impact assessments.

SWF approach is based on dynamic gridded surface runoff estimates from the Grid-to-Grid model used by FFC

Methodologies for generating dynamic hazard & impact maps and regional summaries

Ensemble case study verification ongoing

Prototype operational trialplanned for late 2015 – feed into FGS

Delivery of:

• Proof of concept SWF HIM for testing & initial verification work

• Research report proposing methodology for operational SWF HIM - Presentation of initial collaborative SWF case study work at ICFR conference (by CEH) & at FRIEND-Water Conference (by FFC)

SWF Impacts & vulnerability Flood Impact on Population with vulnerability

Prototype SWF Hazard Impact Model

Proof of concept

CEH Grid to Grid

(G2G) model

Adding the Impact

Flood Impact on Population with vulnerability

PopulationTwo basic scenarios

• Night time = Residential night time + Care homes + Hospitals + Prisons

• Day time = Residential day time term-time + Care homes + Hospitals + Schools + Prisons + Workplaces

• Dependent on time of day:

Day: 0900 – 1700 Night: other times

• NPD populations resampled to 1km grid

• Hazard x Population = Exposure (no. of people in hazard area)

• Vulnerable Populations - Identify population groups who might be more at risk Criteria used:

- Over 75, or

- Suffering a long-term limiting illness

• Hospitals, Care homes, School pupils, Residential population proportion

Reporting of outputs

By Region - Unitary Authorities in case study area

Time / Unitary Authority

Selby East Riding of Yorkshire

York Doncaster Ryedale

1200 . . . . .

1300 . . . . .

1400 3740 . . . .

1500 . . 68215 . 6

1600 . 8547 46344 . 4

1700 . 11328 41682 30 .

1800 0 4782 13735 3259 .

1900 0 13399 3259 2864 .

2000 0 9614 3259 . .

2100 0 9614 . . .

2200 0 5 . . .

2300 0 . . . .

0000 . . . . .

Note. ‘0’ indicates the Local Authority has flooding, but no population expected. ‘.’ indicates that no hazard was identified in the Local Authority.

Comparison with event - verification• Comparison with reports from media and other source

SWF reporting outputs

High Wind Impacts

Proof of concept - Vehicle Overturning (VOT) Model

Probabilistic model uses MOGREPS-UK ensembles: runs in

real-time – used for NSWWS

Prototype Models – Bridges and Camping

Ongoing work -

Wind Impacts on Buildings

Improve Wind Hazard Modelling

Verification of Hazard Impact Model

Landslides

Landslide (thresholds) • Use thresholds and PBMs to develop higher granularity in the NHP forecast

Landslide domains + hourly weather/thresholds + soil model + GIS data layers = NHP granular forecast

+ + + =

Initial discussions regarding development of impacts for landslides HIM with HSL

HIM Production System

• Agreement of broad architecture: Autumn 2013• Prototype HIM (VoT) running since Mid-December 2013• Successful visualisation of model outputs via desktop GIS, Web page

and specialised forecaster software.• Extending this to include the SWF HIM during the next year

How & to whom will be HIM be delivered?

Modelling / analysis organised into a series of Moduleswith standardised outputs.

Modules comply to a common Framework - a set of standards covering conceptualisation of hazard impact, output data formats, archiving protocols and visual design.

Web services delivered via internal (MO)& external networks

Expertoperationalusers

Researchusers

End users

Operational Production System

• Efficiency and effectiveness - One stop shop for natural hazards advice and inter-agency natural hazard science to services coordination

• Better informed mitigation and adaptation strategies for individual natural hazards and for linked and compounding hazards

• Increased natural hazard warning lead times with improved assessments of likelihood and predicted impact, location, type and severity

• Increased natural hazard data and visualisation interoperability.

NHP Benefits to the UK

NHP – ‘The UK’s trusted voice for coordinated natural hazard advice’

Available through Hazard Manager

Available at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/nhp/

NHP Science to services

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Local Resilience Forum

Category 1

responders

Local public

services

Emergency

services

NHS

Category 2

responders

Environment

Agency

Highways Agency

Public utilities

UK Government and

agencies

SAGE

UK Policy for emergency

response – 4 main actions

1. Risk assessment

2. Preparation and planning

3. Response and recovery

4. Building a resilient society

UK Resilience

• Joint working and synergies

• Daily UK natural hazards assessment

• Scientific advice on the NRA and SAGE/COBRA

• Move towards forecastinglikely common impacts

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/nhp/

Natural Hazard Partnership

• Recognition and visibilityMigration to GOV.UK?

• Fully operational multi-hazard services

• Impact-based assessment infrastructure

• Private sector engagement

• Long-term funding

NHP Challenges…

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