What is IPAT and how does it help frame environmental issues?

What are current projections for human population growth, economic growth, & technology?

Why is Yoram a “technological realist” about climate change?

Why is Tom otherwise?

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

IPAT

Impact on the environment =Population xActivity per person (or Affluence) xTechnology (impact per activity). I = P x A x T• How many of us are there? How much stuff

are we doing? How environmentally damaging is the stuff we’re doing?

• Assumes affluence = consumption

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

IPAT and climate change

Impact (CO2 and other GHG emissions) =Population xAffluence (GDP* per person) xTechnology (Emissions per unit of GDP). I = P x A x T (now you do the units analysis)

* Gross Domestic Product measures a country’s economic output (and income).

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

IPAT and climate change

Emissions = Population x GDP per person x emissions per unit GDP

• What’s happening with population?• What’s happening with the economy (GDP

per person)?• What’s happening with technology

(emissions per unit GDP)?

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

IPAT and climate change

Emissions = Population x GDP per person x emissions per unit GDP

• What’s happening with population?

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Bill

ions

0

1

-10000 -7500 -5000 -2500 0 2500

18501800

19001950

1975

2000

1968: Garrett Hardin freaks out

October 20, 2008

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

Lutz et al. (2001. Nature 412: 543 - 545).

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

Lutz et al. (2001. Nature 412: 543 - 545).Why?

How many children did your grandparents have (on average)?

One Two Three Four Five

Six or more

1%

7%

23%22%

30%

18%

1. One 2. Two3. Three4. Four5. Five6. Six or more

How many children did your parents have?

One Two Three Four Five

Six or more

10%

46%

3%5%

9%

28%

1. One 2. Two3. Three4. Four5. Five6. Six or more

How many children do you want to have, or how many did you have?

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

21%

14%

44%

1%1%

5%

13%

1. Zero or adopt 2. One3. Two4. Three5. Four6. Five 7. Six or more

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

2010

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

Afghanistan

Malawi

Zimbabwe

India

China Greece Austria USA

Norway

Demographic transition

• World population is still increasing, but it appears to be heading for a peak of around 9 billion. Why???

• Coercion? Environmental awareness? The invisible hand?

• Mostly just blind luck!• Is 9 billion a lot or a little?• The UN’s range for 2300 is 2 to 36 billion!

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

From UN, The World at Six Billion• Of the 78 million people currently added to the

world each year, 95 percent live in the less developed regions.

• Countries with population over 100 million– In 1950: China, India, U.S., Russian federation– In 2000, add Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh,

Japan, Nigeria– In 2050, add Ethiopia, Congo, Mexico, Philippines,

Vietnam, Iran, Egypt, Turkey.• World population density will increase from 44.6

people/sq km in 2004 to 66 in 2050.• Ranges from Bangladesh (1045), India (336),

China (138) to USA (31) and Canada (3.2)

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

IPAT and climate change

Emissions = Population x GDP per person x emissions per unit GDP

• What’s happening with population?• What’s happening with GDP per person?

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

Per capita GDP• Gross Domestic Product is a measure of the

size of economic activity in a country.• U.S., 2007: $45,800 GDP per capita• China, 2007: $5,400• Zimbabwe 2007: $200• In 2005, world GDP rose by ≈4-5%, so per

capita GDP growth was ≈3-4%.

CIA World Factbookhttps://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

Compare GDP with other measuresComparing Nine Countries

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

AfghanistanAustria China Greece India MalawiNorway

United StatesZimbabwe

Percentage of Maximum

Population (% of max)GDP (% of max)Unemploy-ment

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

Affluence ~ Consumption (?)• A gold wedding ring ~ 3 tons of discharge at a mine in

South Africa or the U.S. (47% of gold is recycled). • A gold watch ~ 10 to 20 tons.• Lunch with two quarter pounders

– If animal was from Brazil, then 54 ft2 (~5 m2) of rain forest is gone, 59 lb of methane produced, ~200 gallons of water, 3.74 lb of grain

– Hamburger bun required wheat, water, nitrogen fertilizer.

• To build your car, it took 605,664 gallons of water for its steel parts and tires. Battery ~ 17.6 lbs of lead produces ~ 682 lbs of pollution at a mine in Australia or the U.S. (73% is recycled), Car has 22 lbs of copper produces ~2178 lbs of discharge somewhere in Chile or the U.S. (60% is recycled).

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

Professor Yannis Phillis

Average US Citizen (per day)• Consumes 0.44 lbs (or 53 teaspoons) of

sweetners per day (mostly in processed food)• Produces 33 lbs of C per day (20% of which is

due to the personal automobile)• Excluded food and fuel, one consumes 222 lbs

of material per day• Generates 4.4 lbs of garbage (33% is

packaging)• Ecological footprint is 4x world average; China

and India are well below world average.

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

Professor Yannis Phillis

Professor Phillis’ Model of Sustainability

• Overall sustainability (OSUS) = ecological sustainability (ECOS) + human sustainability (HUMS)

• ECOS = air quality, water quality, land integrity, biodiversity

• HUMS = Political aspects, education, economic welfare, health

Andriantiatsaholiniaina, L.A., V.S. Kouikoglou and Y.A. Phillis. 2004. Evaluating strategies for sustainable development: fuzzy logic reasoning and sensitivity analysisEcological Economics 48: 149 - 172.

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

Country Number of Cars per person ≥ 16 years old

United States 1.023

France 0.700

Japan 0.608

India 0.011

China 0.009

ABC News 2007

Comparison of Cars per Person

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

IPAT and climate change

Emissions = Population x GDP per person x emissions per unit GDP

• What’s happening with population?• What’s happening with GDP per person?• By 2100, population may be 50% higher, and

GDP/person may be 50-500% higher.• Yoram’s conclusion: If we’re going to reduce

GHG emissions, it’s gotta be technology.• Justice and power issues will likely result in a

combination of changes.

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

McKibben argues for a change from ______ to durability and resiliency

1 2 3 4 5

4%

33%

3%3%

57%1. Green GNP2. Sustainability3. Demand for

expansion4. Concept of justice5. Web of

connections

McKibben also argues for moving from “X” to “Y”

1 2 3 4

14%21%

55%

10%

1. Community to wildness

2. Five channel to cable TV

3. Wildness to community

4. Thinking about the future to thinking about now

Good news: Energy use per unit of GDP is falling! (Our economies are becoming less

energy- and carbon-intensive.)

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

Bad news: The drop in T (technology) has not been keeping pace with increases in P

(population) and A (affluence).

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

Technological realism: If China and the U.S. keep building coal plants like crazy, IPAT suggests that

carbon emissions will not fall.

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

Views on technology•Technological optimists: “Technology will save us! Wind/solar/fuel cells/nuclear/etc.”

•Technological pessimists: “Technology won’t save us—we need changes in values and lifestyles.”

•Technological realists: “If technology doesn’t save us, we’re not going to be saved.”

•Combination: Matching global aspirations with emerging situation - McKibben readings

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

What is IPAT and how does it help frame environmental issues?

What are current projections for human population growth,

economic growth, and technology?

Why is Yoram a “technological realist” about climate change?

Why has Tom chosen more than technology as a solution?