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What a Year It Was -and Where We Need To Go
in Emerging Memory
Live Webcast 14 January 2020, 11:00 am PT/ 2:00 pm ET
Today’s Presenters
2© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
CoughlinCoughlinData Storage Consulting
AssociatesAssociates
Moderator:Alex McDonald, Co-Chair
Presenter: Tom Coughlin, President
Presenter:Jim Handy, General Director
3
Technologies We Cover:
Solid State Storage Persistent Memory Computational Storage
Join Us in January and February 2020 for these exciting events:
January 23, 20208:30 am – 6:30 pm
Hyatt Regency Santa Clara
Keynote by Andy Bechtolsheim of Arista NetworksComplimentary registration
January 22, 20201:00 pm – 5:00 pmSanta Clara, CA
Complimentaryregistration
February 4, 2020 9:30 am – 5:00 pm
Tel Aviv, IsraelAs part of
www.snia.org/pmhackathon
www.snia.org/pm-summit
https://www.snia.org/events/sdcemeahttp://www.snia.org/pmhackathonhttp://www.snia.org/pm-summit
SNIA Legal Notice
The material contained in this presentation is copyrighted by the SNIA unless otherwise noted. Member companies and individual members may use this material in presentations and literature under the following conditions:
Any slide or slides used must be reproduced in their entirety without modificationThe SNIA must be acknowledged as the source of any material used in the body of any document containing material from these presentations.
This presentation is a project of the SNIA.Neither the author nor the presenter is an attorney and nothing in this presentation is intended to be, or should be construed as legal advice or an opinion of counsel. If you need legal advice or a legal opinion please contact your attorney.The information presented herein represents the author's personal opinion and current understanding of the relevant issues involved. The author, the presenter, and the SNIA do not assume any responsibility or liability for damages arising out of any reliance on or use of this information.
NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED. USE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
© 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association4
Many Emerging Memory Types
MRAM
ReRAM FRAM
PCM
5© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
AND THEY’RE ALL IN OUREMERGING MEMORIES REPORT
They’re All Persistent!
6© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
Agenda
SNIA Support Moves AheadOptane DIMMs ArriveNew MRAM types EmergeBusiness Conditions in FluxMore Work is Needed
7© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
PM Needs Support
Hardware (JEDEC, Others)Supporting early developmentOngoing requirementsForm factors, interfaces
Software support (SNIA, Others)O/S supportApplication program support
© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association8
Hardware: Early Development
Early groundwork has been helpfulNVDIMM-N
DRAM with flash backupDeeply investigated in Objective Analysis NVDIMM Report
BIOS changesHow/when to boot without reloading memory?
New power fail signal brought to DIMM3D XPoint Memory/Optane is driving HW changesCadence now supports DDR4 MRAM for ASICs & FPGAs
© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association9
Ongoing Hardware Requirements
Nonuniform Memory Architecture: “NUMA”MMU redesignFaster CPU context switches needed
Use polling for nowUpdated DDR4 bus
Intel has developed proprietary DDR-T“Transactional”
Support for non-deterministic access times
© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association10
Software: Operating System Support
SNIA’s Persistent Memory Programming Modelhttps://www.SNIA.org/PM
© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association11
https://www.snia.org/PM
SNIA’s Persistent Memory Progress
2019PM Programing Hackathon and Workshops launchedWork on PM software interface specifications
Developed PMDK
Persistent Memory SummitWhite papers
FutureDefine Remote PM Programming Model (i.e. RDMA)Updates to current PM Programming Model
12© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
Application Program Support
PM is useless if its advantage is untappedPersistence is unknown in most software
This change will take some timeClosed systems can use it now
Hyperscale Data Centers, SANs
Open systems will evolve
13© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
Agenda
SNIA Support Moves AheadOptane DIMMs ArriveNew MRAM types EmergeBusiness Conditions in FluxMore Work is Needed
14© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
3D XPoint Must Be Priced Below DRAMOtherwise People will Just Buy DRAM
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
1.E-01 1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06
Ban
dwid
th (M
B/s
)
Price per Gigabyte
Tape
HDD
SSD
DRAM
L3
L2
L1
101
100
102
103
104
105
106
107
101 102 103 104 105 10610010-1
3DXPoint
© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association15
Optane Status
Optane DIMMs are a key selling point for next-generation server “Cascade Lake” CPUs
Big performance benefit from Optane + CPU enhancementsOptane SSDs gaining modest acceptance
NAND makers countering with fast SLC SSDsCovered in depth by Objective Analysis XPoint report
Details at end of slideshow
© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association16
Agenda
SNIA Support Moves AheadOptane DIMMs ArriveNew MRAM types EmergeBusiness Conditions in FluxMore Work is Needed
17© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
Existing MRAM Types: Toggle & STT
Magnets aligned =Low resistance: “0”
“Free”magnetic layer
“Fixed” magnetic layer
Tunnel barrierS
S N
N
“Reset”
Magnets unaligned = High resistance. “1”
N
S N
S
“Set”Parallel
MagneticPolarization
Anti-ParallelMagnetic
Polarization
Free LayerTunnel Barrier
Reference Layer
Low Resistance
or “0”
High Resistance
or “1”
Spin Transfer Torque(STT)
Toggle Mode
18© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
New: Spin-Orbit Torque MRAM (SOT)
Higher reliability in-plane currentFaster than STT – As fast as SRAM
“Free”layer
“Fixed”layer
© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association19
MRAM Status
MRAM cache is in certain new IBM SSDs as well as some RAID controllersSpin Memory introductions:
Precessional Spin CurrentEndurance Engine Technologies
Everspin still sole supplier of stand-alone MRAMsOver 123 million units shippedAvalanche is sampling
Today’s markets: Space, high-uptime systems, caches and buffers
© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association20
Embedded MRAM on SoCs
21
Support from all major semiconductor foundries for embedded MRAM: Samsung Intel TSMC GLOBALFOUNDRIES UMC
This will increase the volume to lower costs New tools are needed for MRAM, driving capital
equipment spending© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
MRAM Capital Spending Up
22
MRAM Production Equipment Spending, 2018-2029
2019 Emerging Memories Ramp Up, Coughlin Associates and Objective Analysis, 2019
>$800 Million!
© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
Agenda
SNIA Support Moves AheadOptane DIMMs ArriveNew MRAM types EmergeBusiness Conditions in FluxMore Work is Needed
23© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
Who Wants Persistent Memory?1) If it Costs MORE than DRAM
That’s NVDIMMs!Early adopters:
High-availability systemsFinancial databasesSome hyperscale applications
MRAM DIMMs are also interesting (faster but more expensive) 0
5
10
15
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Uni
t Shi
pmen
ts (M
illio
ns)
NVDIMM-P (Mu)
NVDIMM-N (Mu)
24© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
New Memory Prices Will Move Past Established Technologies
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Pric
e pe
r Gig
abyt
e
EEPROM
SRAMNOR
DRAM
NAND10-410-310-210-1100101102103104105106
Source: Objective Analysis, 2018
25© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
Chart1
201020102010201020102010
201120112011201120112011
201220122012201220122012
201320132013201320132013
201420142014201420142014
201520152015201520152015
201620162016201620162016
201720172017201720172017
201820182018201820182018
201920192019201920192019
202020202020202020202020
202120212021202120212021
202220222022202220222022
202320232023202320232023
202420242024202420242024
202520252025202520252025
202620262026202620262026
202720272027202720272027
202820282028202820282028
202920292029202920292029
203020302030203020302030
EEPROM
SRAM
DRAM
NOR Flash
NAND Flash
Emerging Memory
Price per Gigabyte
419430.4
500
10.961001051
132.9478761433
1.2313206
83886.08
419430.4
500
7.677971277
111.9663549563
0.8484325004
33158.8845978872
419430.4
500
5.3819413563
93.7128518662
0.5918163749
13107.2
419430.4
500
3.7694939554
80.6725556334
0.4081764064
5181.0757184199
419430.4
500
2.6263632586
66.9345774571
0.2809747875
2048
419430.4
500
1.8298965452
56.8943908385
0.1934135094
809.5430810031
419430.4
500
1.2749650511
51.2049517547
0.1331392968
320
419430.4
500
0.8883211927
48.6447041669
0.0916485741
160
419430.4
500
0.6189303312
48.6447041669
0.0630877685
70.6129706618
419430.4
500
0.4312345107
48.6447041669
0.0434274791
31.1636976605
419430.4
500
0.300459024
48.6447041669
0.029894003
13.7535079288
419430.4
500
0.2093423018
48.6447041669
0.0205780173
6.0698503242
419430.4
500
0.1458574908
48.6447041669
0.0141652088
2.6788135179
419430.4
500
0.1016249819
48.6447041669
0.0097508491
1.1822436272
419430.4
500
0.1016249819
48.6447041669
0.0067121536
0.521760841
419430.4
500
0.1016249819
48.6447041669
0.0046204188
0.2302692685
419430.4
500
0.1016249819
48.6447041669
0.0031805395
0.1016249819
419430.4
500
0.1016249819
48.6447041669
0.0021893755
0.0708063527
419430.4
500
0.1016249819
48.6447041669
0.0015070918
0.0493337316
419430.4
500
0.1016249819
48.6447041669
0.0010374308
0.0343728632
419430.4
500
0.1016249819
48.6447041669
0.0007141322
0.0239490038
Sheet1
Column1201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
EEPROM$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000
SRAM$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000
DRAM$10.96100$7.67797$5.38194$3.76949$2.62636$1.82990$1.27497$0.88832$0.61893$0.43123$0.30046$0.20934$0.14586$0.10162$0.10162$0.10162$0.10162$0.10162$0.10162$0.10162$0.10162
NOR Flash$132.94788$111.96635$93.71285$80.67256$66.93458$56.89$51.20495$48.64$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470
NAND Flash$1.23132$0.84843$0.59182$0.40818$0.28097$0.19341$0.13314$0.09165$0.06309$0.04343$0.02989$0.02058$0.01417$0.00975$0.00671$0.00462$0.00318$0.00219$0.00151$0.00104$0.00071
Emerging Memory$83,886.08000$33,158.88460$13,107.20000$5,181.07572$2,048.00000$809.54$320.00000$160.00000$70.61297$31.16370$13.75351$6.06985$2.67881$1.18224$0.52176$0.23027$0.10162$0.07081$0.04933$0.03437$0.02395
Who Wants Persistent Memory?2) If it Costs LESS than DRAM
That’s 3D XPoint!Everybody will want it!It improves cost/performance
Persistence is of secondary importance
This will drive its successPersistent apps come later
0X
2X
4X
6X
8X
10X
12X
14X
16X
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013R
atio
of D
RA
M to
NA
ND
Pric
e pe
r GB
26© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
Meanwhile, DRAM Prices Collapse
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
Jan-
18
Apr
-18
Jul-1
8
Oct
-18
Jan-
19
Apr
-19
Jul-1
9
Oct
-19
Jan-
20
Pric
e/G
B -55%
27© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
Commodity Price Cycle at Work!
ShortagePrices
Stabilize
OversupplyPrices
Collapse
ManufacturersOver Invest
ManufacturersUnder Invest
© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association28
How Does This Impact PM?
Persistent memory competes against established technologies
E.g. 3D XPoint must be cheaper than DRAMMRAM takes up less space on die than SRAM
A DRAM collapse undermines XPoint pricingEven though XPoint is sole-sourced!
© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association29
Big XPoint/Optane Losses For Intel
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
Net
Pro
fit
IntelSamsungMicronSK hynixToshibaWDC
30© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
New Memory Shipment Growth
MRAM
3DXPoint
Over $37Bby 2029!
Memory Petabyte Shipments 2018-2029
2019 Emerging Memories Ramp Up, Coughlin Associates & Objective Analysis, 2019
© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association31
Agenda
SNIA Support Moves AheadOptane DIMMs ArriveNew MRAM types EmergeBusiness Conditions in FluxMore Work is Needed
32© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
Taking PM to the Max
Application support for PMAdditional open-source libraries to support PM (PMDK)PM hardware support outside of IntelDrive cost reductions by ramping production volumeStandardize Remote PM protocolBuy our reports!
33© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
QUESTIONS?
Jim Handy(408) 356-2549Jim.Handy(at)Objective-Analysis.com
Tom Coughlin(408) 202-5098Tom(at)tomcoughlin.com
CoughlinCoughlinData Storage Consulting
AssociatesAssociates
34
Emerging Memory Report
Coughlin Associates/Objective AnalysisExamines Emerging Memory Ecosystem
Technologies (PCM, ReRAM, MRAM, FRAM…)CompaniesMarketsSupport requirements
Forecasts Emerging Memory consumptionEmbedded Emerging MemoriesDiscrete Emerging Memories
172 pages, 30 tables, 125 figureshttp://www.tomcoughlin.com/techpapers.htm
https://Objective-Analysis.com/reports/#Emerging© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
35
http://www.tomcoughlin.com/techpapers.htmhttps://objective-analysis.com/reports/#Emerging
Thanks for Watching Our Webcast
And check out these additional resource links:SNIA Persistent Memory Summit videos and presentation slidesSNIA Educational Library resources on Persistent MemorySNIA SSSI blogSNIA Persistent Memory activities
NVM Programming Technical Work GroupSNIA Persistent Memory and NVDIMM Special Interest GroupSNIA Persistent Memory Programming Tutorial and Hackathon Program
36© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
http://www.snia.org/pm-summithttps://www.snia.org/educational-library?search=persistent+memory&field_edu_content_type_tid=All&field_assoc_event_name_tid=All&field_release_date_value_2%5Bvalue%5D%5Byear%5D=&field_focus_areas_tid=All&field_author_tid=&field_author_company_value=&field_release_date_value=All&items_per_page=20http://sniasssiblog.org/https://www.snia.org/forums/sssi/persistent-memoryhttps://www.snia.org/forums/sssi/nvmphttps://www.snia.org/forums/sssi/NVDIMMhttps://www.snia.org/pm-summit/hackathon
Additional Materials
Technical and Market AnalysisConsultingEventsReports and Newsletter
Emerging Memories Ramp Up: Emerging Memory ReportDigital Storage in Media and Entertainment ReportDigital Storage Technology Newsletter
Tom Coughlin President
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
ProfoundAnalysts
CustomConsulting
Reports &Services
OBJECTIVE ANALYSISSemiconductor Forecast Accuracy
Year Forecast Actual2008 Zero growth at best. -3%2009 Growth in the mid teens -9%2010 Should approach 30% 32%2011 Muted revenue growth: 5% 0%2012 Revenues drop as much as -5% -2.7%2013 Revenues increase nearly 10% 4.9%2014 Revenues up 20%+ 9.9%2015 Revenues up ~10% -0.2%2016 Revenues up ~10% 1.1%2017 Revenues up ~20% 22%2018 Strong start supports 10+% growth 14%2019 Semiconductors down -5% TBD
http://vstream1.vlsiresearch.com/public/cmm_forecast_071218/cmm_forecast_jh_071218_index.htmhttps://www.wesrch.com/video/jim_handy.phphttp://www.wesrch.com/video/jim_handy3.phphttp://www.wesrch.com/video/jim_handy_2010.phphttp://electronics.wesrch.com/wequest-EL1JYMD-wevision-dram-and-flash-memory-market-to-take-another-hit-in-2012-an-interview-with-jim-handy-videohttp://business.wesrch.com/wequest-BU1OIST-dram-and-flash-memory-market-to-turn-up-in-2013-with-jim-handyhttp://electronics.wesrch.com/wequest-EL12529-dram-and-flash-memory-market-2014-with-jim-handyhttp://electronics.wesrch.com/wequest-EL18R5M-dram-and-flash-memory-market-2015-with-jim-handyhttp://www.wesrch.com/electronics/wequest-EL1YKKA-dram-and-flash-memory-market-2016-trendshttps://www.wesrch.com/electronics/wequest-EL17CKN-dram-and-flash-memory-market-2017-with-jim-handyhttps://www.wesrch.com/electronics/wevision-EL1DP3X-memory-market-forecast-2018-with-jim-handyhttps://www.wesrch.com/electronics/wevision-EL1J9YM-memory-market-forecast-2019-with-jim-handy-of-objective-analysis
NVDIMM Report
Objective AnalysisExplains the NVDIMM markets
NVDIMM-NNVDIMM-P
Vendor profilesSupport requirementsMarket forecast
https://Objective-Analysis.com/reports/#NVDIMM© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
https://objective-analysis.com/reports/#NVDIMM
3D XPoint Report
2019 Update from Objective AnalysisThe Why, How, and When of 3D XPoint Memory
Why Intel wants itHow it fits into the memory hierarchy
Impact on DRAM
When will it sell in volumeDetailed Forecasts
https://Objective-Analysis.com/reports/#XPoint© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association
https://objective-analysis.com/reports/#XPoint
What a Year It Was - �and Where We Need To Go �in Emerging MemoryToday’s PresentersSlide Number 3SNIA Legal NoticeMany Emerging Memory TypesAnd they’re all in our�Emerging Memories ReportAgendaPM Needs SupportHardware: Early DevelopmentOngoing Hardware RequirementsSoftware: Operating System SupportSNIA’s Persistent Memory ProgressApplication Program SupportAgenda3D XPoint Must Be Priced Below DRAM�Otherwise People will Just Buy DRAMOptane StatusAgendaExisting MRAM Types: Toggle & STTNew: Spin-Orbit Torque MRAM (SOT)MRAM StatusEmbedded MRAM on SoCsMRAM Capital Spending UpAgendaWho Wants Persistent Memory?�1) If it Costs MORE than DRAMNew Memory Prices Will Move Past Established TechnologiesWho Wants Persistent Memory?�2) If it Costs LESS than DRAMMeanwhile, DRAM Prices CollapseCommodity Price Cycle at Work!How Does This Impact PM?Big XPoint/Optane Losses For IntelNew Memory Shipment GrowthAgendaTaking PM to the MaxQUESTIONS?Emerging Memory ReportThanks for Watching Our WebcastAdditional MaterialsSlide Number 38OBJECTIVE ANALYSISObjective Analysis�Semiconductor Forecast AccuracyNVDIMM Report3D XPoint Report