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WELCOME TO PRESENTATION ON. 28 TH JUL.2013. K G KRUPAL AUTHOR, BROKER, COLUMNIST. SENSEX MOVEMENT ON 26 TH JULY ‘13. High : 19,907, Low: 19,699 ( 208 points ), Close: 19,748. WEEKLY SCENARIO. INDICES INDEX. INDICES MAZIC. INVESTMENT. Business performance Focus on value - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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SCENARIO OF INDIAN CAPITAL MARKET
WELCOME TO PRESENTATION ON28TH JUL.2013
K G KRUPALAUTHOR, BROKER, COLUMNIST
SENSEX MOVEMENT ON 26TH JULY ‘13
High : 19,907, Low: 19,699 (208 points), Close: 19,748
DATE SENSEX
CHANGEFII FIGS. in Rs. Crs.
DII FIGS. in Rs. Crs.
22/07/2013
+9.27 -406.20 +299.85
23/07/2013
+143.01
+211.35
+60.86
24/07/2013
-211.45 -404.50 -328.80
25/07/2013
-285.92 -442.94 -138.80
26/07/2013
-56.57 +278.04
-489.17
TOTAL -401.66 -764.07 -596.06
WEEKLY SCENARIO
INDICES
ALL TIME HIGH
ALL TIME LOW YEARLY
HIGH
PRESENT
BSE MID CAP
10,245.81(8TH Jan ‘08)
2,547.91(9TH Mar ‘09)
7,391.34(9th Jan ‘13)
5,751.39
BSE SMALL CAP
14,239.24(8TH Jan ‘08)
2.864.24(9TH Mar ‘09)
7,696.74(9th Jan ‘13)
5,499.12
BSE BANKEX
15,335.89(20TH May ‘13)
1,613.78(24TH June ‘03)
15,335.89(20TH May ‘13)
11,277.13
INDICES INDEX
INDICES ALL TIME HIGH
ALL TIME LOW
YEARLY HIGH
PRESENT
BSE FMCG7,600.05(24TH July ‘13)
705.66(24th Apr.’03)
7,600.05(24TH July ‘13)
7,279.11
BSE AUTO 11,868.56(10TH Jan ‘13)
2,127.862nd Dec’08
11,868.56(10TH Jan ‘13)
10,649.82
BSE METAL 20.494.62(4TH Jan’08)
3,806.79(27th Oct.08)
11,510.14(7th Jan ‘13)
6,978.82
BSE IT 8,678.00(22ND Feb ‘00)
835.02(21ST Sep ‘01)
7,306.73(26th July’ 12)
7,241.32
INDICES MAZIC
INVESTMENT
•Business performance•Focus on value •Understand company •Rational approach•Depends on analysis
value of analysis diminishes, as element of chance increases
SPECULATION
• Price performance• Focus on price• Rely on information• Fashionable approach• Depends on chance
Speculator react to prices. Investor react to fundamentals
•
GLOBAL FINANCIAL LITERACY BAROMETER (12/06/12)
COUNTRY RANKING FINANCIAL LITERATE POPULATION
BRAZIL 1 50.4%
MEXICO 2 47.8%
AUSTRALIA 3 46.3%
UNITED STATES 4 44.6%
INDIA 23 35%
SOUTH AFRICA 25 34%
PAKISTHAN 28 27.3%
IT ESTIMATES FUTURE VALUE ON SPECIFIC DEVELOPMENTS.
FUTURE EVENTS PERCOLATES INTO PRESENT VALUES.
IT DISCOUNTS FUTURE AND NEGLECTS, WHEN FUTURE TURNS PRESENT.
MOVES EITHER WAY IN LIGHTENING SPEED. PROVIDING liquidity is the prime plus point of
this market.
BROKERS & SUB-BROKERS
10,203
10,268
9,643
83,808
77,141
69,335
FIGURES FOR 2010-11, 2011-12 & 2012-13 (UPTO May. 2013)
• Shares which are trading @ below the book value, high dividend yield, low P/E multiple, low price to book value, or quotation is below the intrinsic value are value stocks.
VALUE STOCKS
• 1. Demand and Supply• 2. Corporate development --general & specific• 3. Govt. policies & its impact• 4. Developments affecting country’s economy • 5. Index changes and price variation in global
markets.• 6. F I Is and M.F.s activities.• 7. Change in promoters stake.• 8. Settlements and outstandings in F & O.• 9. Raising of funds, issue of ADR/GDR/FCCBS.• 10. Media highlights, both print and electronic.
FACTORS INFLUENCING PRICE FLUCTUATIONS
• CAPITAL MARKET IS SUPER SENSITIVE AND BECAUSE OF ITS NATURE THE NAME SENSITIVE INDEX (SENSEX) IS ARRIVED.
• MONSOON FACTOR, ECONOMIC FACTORS LIKE INDUSTRIAL GROWTH, EXPORTS & IMPORTS, INFLATION, BANKING REGULATORY ACTIONS SUCH AS CRR, REPO, REVERSE REPO RATE CHANGE ETC.
• REGULATORY ACTIONS AGAINST MARKET, COMPANIES, CHANGE IN POLICIES OF GOVT.
WHAT FACTORS IMPACT CAPITAL MARKET
• COPORATE BENEFITS SUCH AS BONUS,
RIGHTS, DIVIDEND ACTIONS LIKE STOCK SPLIT, NAME CHANGE, CONSOLIDATION, STAKE SALE OR CHANGE, BUSINESS AGREEMENTS, MERGER & AMALGAMATION, PLEDGING & RELEASE OF SHARES BY MANAGEMENTS
FACTORS INFLUENCING PRICE FLUCTUATIONS (INTERNAL)
Greediness
Weakness
Hasty decisions Ignorance
THREATS
Losing capitalReturns Risk
Loss of liquidity
STRENGTHS
Be informed before invest
Keep cool & balanced mind for market variations
Restrict operations for making reasonable profit
OPPURUNITIES
Capital appreciation Corporate benefits
• Sensitivity barometer of the market which shows the mood and trend of the investors. Sensex has become a brand of the Indian Capital Market.
• Because of the heavy monetary flood from local and foreign funds sensex has touched all time high of 21,206.77 on 10.01.08. With market capitalisation of Rs.71,41,611 Crores, there are only 30 shares in the Sensex
• PRESENT MARKET CAP : Rs.64.34 lac Crs. On 26th July13
SENSEX
COMPN
31/12/02
15/1/04
1/04/05
31/03/06
30/03/07
22/10/10
26/07/13
SENX 3376
6219
6506
11325
13018
20165
19,748
ACC 165 259 364 782 734 984 1,210
BHEL 172 561 802 2246 2260 2533 158(2)
HDFC
358 644 716 1336
1520
277(2)
805
ICICI B
140 299 405 589 853 1131
932
TISCO
151 442 409 536 449 617 218
TELCO
489 434 932 727 1152 289(2)
SENSEX & CONSTITUENTS MOVEMENT
24TH MAY : 19,704.33 31st May : 19,760.30 08th June : 19,429.23 14th June : 19,177.9321ST JUNE : 18,774.24 28th June : 19,395.81 05th July : 19,495.82 12th July : 19,958.4719TH JULY : 20,149.85 26th July : 19,748.19
SENSEX MOVEMENTS
TATA STEEL -FPO
• ALLOTED 83,25000 SHARES TO ANCHOR INVESTORS @ Rs.610 IN Jan.11
• 17 ALLOTEES
NAME OF INSTITUTION NO. OF SHARES
FID FUNDS(MARS) 3,20,620
NOMURA (MARS) 2,56,500
MACQUARIE BANK 1,92,370
CREDIT SUISSE(SING) 1,60,310
MONETARY AUTHO(SING) 1,68,360
GOVT.OF SINGAPORE 3,81,480
MORGAN STANLY (MARS) 4,55,290
BAJAJ ALIANCE LIC 6,41,250
AANJANEYA LIFE CARE
LTD
JUNE 12 52.4%
SEPT 1287.70%
DEC.12 94.40%
PLEDGE OF PROMOTER’S STAKE
COAL INDIA LISTING LISTED ON 4/11/10 ISSUED @Rs.245 P.S.
BROKERAGE PRICE EXPECTEDAMBIT CAPITA Rs.300
CLSA Rs.309-324HDFC SECURITIES Rs.305J M FINANCIALS Rs.290
I I F L Rs.286-345
MOTILAL OSWAL Rs.325
EDELWISS Rs.316
ACTUALS Rs.287.45 .TO 344.75
• TTK PRESTIGE: CALLS BY
BROKING FIRM RECOMMEND
CLSA SELL
ESPIRITO SANTO NEUTRAL
JEFFRIES BUY
KARVY STOCK BROKING SELL
AMBIT CAPITAL BUY
ELARA SECURITIES REDUCE
J M FINANCIALS HOLD
IDBI CAPITAL REDUCE
Source; ET Dtd 16th OCT
• BROKERAGESACTION TARGET PRICE
DOWNGRADE Rs.3,000
DOWNGRADE 3,500
MAINTAIN 3,981
DOWNGRADE 2,507
MAINTAIN 4,020
DOWNGRADE 3,120
DOWNGRADE 3,176
DOWNGRADE 3,019
WHO IS RIGHT
HIND.UNILEVER LTD: CALLS BY
BROKERAGE FIRMS
KOTAK SECURITIES
AMBIT CAPITAL
STANDARD CHARTERED
AXIS CAPITAL
NOMURA
JP MORGAN
MOTILAL OSWAL
PHILLIPS SECURTIES
IIFL
CREDIT SUISSE
• BROKERAGESRECOMMEND TARGET PRICE
REDUCE 530.00
SELL 503.00
IN LINE 547.00
SELL 504.00
REDUCE 535.00
NEUTRAL 550.00
NEUTRAL 500.00
SELL 507.00
REDUCE 507.00
REDUCE 541.00
SOURCE: ET dtd---: 17/07/13
WHO IS RIGHT
DIVESTMENT DAMAGENAME OF COMPANY ISSUE RATE CURRENT MP
Hind. Copper (2012) 155.00 56.10
N M D C 148.50 104.20
SAIL 63.00 43.65
NTPC 145.00 141.25
NALCO 40.00 29.20
RCF 45.00 30.25
OIL INDIA 520.00 533.05
MMTC 60.00 48.75
HIND COPPER (2013) 70.00 56.10
LICs INVESTMENTS AS ON 31ST MAR 2013
NAME OF THE COMPANY % OF HOLDING
CORPORATION BANK 24.69%
LARSEN & TOUBRO 16.45%
TATA STEEL 14.98%
SHIPPING CORPORATION 14.13%
TATA POWER 12.90%
ITC 12.17%
HINDALCO 10.93%
KESORAM INDUSTRIES 10.90%
MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA 10.62%
GITANJALI GEMS 4.89% (30TH June 2013)
M M T C MOVEMENTS 6 MONTHS CHART
Rs.48.75
MMTC – 1 MONTH GRAPH(28TH MAR 13)
GOVT. 99.33% , DIIs 0.5% , OTHERS 0.17%
GITANJALI GEMS 3Months chart
CANARA BANK 6 MONTS CHART
HIGH: 550 (14TH Jan 13) LOW: 261(26TH Jul.13)
Rs.269.10
TITAN INDUSTRIES 3MONTHS CHART
APOLLO TYRES LTD 3 MONTHS
Rs.68.30
KARNATAKA BANK PRICE MOVEMENT IN BSE ON 21ST JUNE 2013
AANJANEYA LIFECARE 1YEAR
ZYLOG SYSTEMS LTD 1YEAR
WEALTH DESTROYERS KOUTONS RETAIL SKS MICROFINANCE GTL & GTL INFRA KEMROCK INDUSTRIES CROMPTON GREAVES ZYLOG SYSTEMS CORE EDUCATION
TECHNOLOGIES WELSPUN CORP OPTO CIRCUITS BILCARE AANJANEYA LIFECARE GITANJALI GEMS
SIP INVESTMENTS IN EQUITY
YEAR EQUITY DEBT TOTAL
2008-09 + 6,985 +81,803 88,787
2009-10 - 10,512 +1,80.588 1,70,076
2010-11 - 19,802 +2,49,153 2,29,352
2011-12 - 1,358 +3,34.820 3,33,463
2012-13 - 22,749 +4,73,460 4,50,711
APRIL 13 -1,423 +51,822 50.432
MUTUAL FUND INVESTMENTS (IN RS. CRORES)
ALL TIME HIGH RATES OF REAL ESTATE COMPANIES ON 26/07/13
• COMPANY DATE RATE NOWDLF 15/01/08 1,225 172.05UNITECH 02/01/08 547 17.95HDIL 10/01/08 1,114 37.45INDIA BULL REAL ESTATE 08/01/08 848 68.35ACKRUTI CITY(HUB TOWN) 19/03/09 2,364 138.35SHOBHA DEVELOP 20/12/06 1,179 295.15PARSVANATH DEVE 07/01/08 299 29.45OMAXE 13/12/07 613 141.10PURVANKARA 13/12/07 535 75.30
CHANGES- COMPARISION EARLIER -- NO MARKET REGULATOR, MINDS
WERE SELF REGULATED. NOW -- MARKETS ARE FULLY
REGULATED, MINDS TO BE
REGULATED.
EARLIER --RUPEE WAS COSTLIER, ASSETS WERE CHEEPER.
NOW -- RUPEE IS CHEEPER, ASSETS ARE COSTLIER.
• TIPS & NEWS FROM SMS, • FOCUS ON TOPLINE LINKED TO BOTTOM
LINE.• THINK BEFORE YIELDING TO UNLIMITED
TURNOVER FACILITY WITH A LIMITED FEES
• AVOID TEMPTATION BASED ON HIGH TURNOVER IN SCRIPS.
Assess the market Price behavior • Combine fundamental and technical
analysis• Develop sound strategies for growth
stocks• Beware of operators’ game play• Take Swift corrective action i.e. keep
stop loss • Take disciplined decision
• SHORT TERM, i.e. within one year,
profits are taxed @ 15% FROM 2008-09
• LONG TERM, i.e. held for more than one year, there is no tax on the profits.
• Dividends are totally tax free.• Trading profits are taxed as normal
income at the applicable slab.
TAXATION
SUCCESS MANTRA
TO BE
SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR
THINK PROFIT
IN TUNE WITH
DHIRUBAI AMBANI MANTRA
THINK BIG
SUCCESS MANTRA
• SHARE BUSINESS PROFIT = E F E P • = ENTRY ON FUNDAMENTALS• EXIT FOR PROFIT
(NO CONDITIONS
APPLY)
MONEY MAKING EQUATION
• Internet – • www.sebi.gov.in
• www.bseindia.com & www.nseindia.com• www.nsdl.com & • www.bgse.co.in & www.bfsl.co.in
• Companies websites• Company reports-
• Offer documents/ Prospectus • Annual/Half yearly/Quarterly reports
• Stock Exchange’s Information centre• Broker’s Offices & Media- Print and Electronic
SOURCES OF INFORMATION