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Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 1 of 5 Weekly System Status Report – 2020 Week 27 (29/06/2020 – 05/07/2020) Introduction This document is intended to provide a general picture of the Adequacy of the National Electricity Supply System in the medium term. The Report will be updated weekly, on Tuesdays and circulated Wednesdays, thereafter, published on the Eskom website, updated on Wednesdays. The values contained in this report are unverified and not official yet and can change at any time. Disclaimer The Data published here is for information purposes only. The content is subject to verification and validation. Eskom shall not be held responsible for any errors or it being misleading or incomplete and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, damages or expenses, howsoever, incurred or suffered, resulting or arising, from the use of this Data or any reliance placed on it. Historic Daily Peak System Capacity/Demand Date Available Dispatchable Generation (MW) Non-commercial Generation (MW) Residual Load Forecast (MW) Actual Residual Demand (MW) Incl IOS Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non- Commercial Units) Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non- Commercial Units) Forecast vs. Actual (Residual Demand) Mon 29/Jun/2020 34,711 457 31,759 31,506 10.2% 11.6% 0.8% Tue 30/Jun/2020 35,712 341 31,537 31,524 13.3% 14.4% 0.0% Wed 01/Jul/2020 34,532 426 31,630 31,653 9.1% 10.4% -0.1% Thu 02/Jul/2020 33,754 439 30,293 30,875 9.3% 10.7% -1.9% Fri 03/Jul/2020 34,289 372 30,305 30,567 12.2% 13.4% -0.9% Sat 04/Jul/2020 33,312 375 29,836 29,857 11.6% 12.8% -0.1% Sun 05/Jul/2020 32,433 374 30,054 29,569 9.7% 10.9% 1.6% Date Total Available Generation Incl Renewables (MW) Non-commercial Generation (MW) RSA Contracted Load Forecast (MW) Actual RSA Contracted Demand (MW) Incl IOS Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non- Commercial Units) Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non- Commercial Units) Forecast vs. Actual (RSA Contracted Demand) Mon 29/Jun/2020 35,788 457 32,706 32,583 9.8% 11.2% 0.4% Tue 30/Jun/2020 36,805 341 32,536 32,616 12.8% 13.9% -0.2% Wed 01/Jul/2020 35,517 426 32,425 32,639 8.8% 10.1% -0.7% Thu 02/Jul/2020 35,044 439 31,445 32,165 9.0% 10.3% -2.2% Fri 03/Jul/2020 34,802 372 30,803 31,080 12.0% 13.2% -0.9% Sat 04/Jul/2020 34,181 375 30,738 30,726 11.2% 12.5% 0.0% Sun 05/Jul/2020 33,573 374 31,001 30,709 9.3% 10.5% 1.0% Notes: 1. Available Dispatchable Generation means all generation resources that can be dispatched by Eskom and includes capacity available from all emergency generation resources. 2. RSA Contracted Load Forecast is the total official day-ahead hourly forecast. Residual Load Forecast excludes the expected generation from renewables. 3. Actual Residual Demand is the aggregated metered hourly sent-out generation and imports from dispatchable resources, and includes demand reductions. The Actual RSA Contracted Demand includes renewable generation. 4. Net Maximum Dispatchable Capacity (including imports and emergency generation resources) = 48 522 MW (Incl. non-comm. Kusile units). 5. These figures do not include any demand side products. 6. The peak hours for the residual demand can differ from that of the RSA contracted demand, depending on renewable generation.

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Page 1: Weekly System Status Report 2020 w27 - eskom.co.za · Weekly System Status Report – 2020 Week 27 (29/06/2020 – 05/07/2020) Introduction This document is intended to provide a

Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 1 of 5

Weekly System Status Report – 2020 Week 27 (29/06/2020 – 05/07/2020)

Introduction This document is intended to provide a general picture of the Adequacy of the National Electricity Supply System in the medium term. The Report will be updated weekly, on Tuesdays and circulated Wednesdays, thereafter, published on the Eskom website, updated on Wednesdays. The values contained in this report are unverified and not official yet and can change at any time. Disclaimer The Data published here is for information purposes only. The content is subject to verification and validation. Eskom shall not be held responsible for any errors or it being misleading or incomplete and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, damages or expenses, howsoever, incurred or suffered, resulting or arising, from the use of this Data or any reliance placed on it. Historic Daily Peak System Capacity/Demand

DateAvailable

Dispatchable Generation (MW)

Non-commercial Generation (MW)

Residual Load Forecast (MW)

Actual Residual Demand (MW) Incl

IOS

Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non-Commercial Units)

Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non-

Commercial Units)

Forecast vs. Actual (Residual Demand)

Mon 29/Jun/2020 34,711 457 31,759 31,506 10.2% 11.6% 0.8%Tue 30/Jun/2020 35,712 341 31,537 31,524 13.3% 14.4% 0.0%Wed 01/Jul/2020 34,532 426 31,630 31,653 9.1% 10.4% -0.1%Thu 02/Jul/2020 33,754 439 30,293 30,875 9.3% 10.7% -1.9%Fri 03/Jul/2020 34,289 372 30,305 30,567 12.2% 13.4% -0.9%Sat 04/Jul/2020 33,312 375 29,836 29,857 11.6% 12.8% -0.1%

Sun 05/Jul/2020 32,433 374 30,054 29,569 9.7% 10.9% 1.6%

DateTotal Available Generation Incl

Renewables (MW)

Non-commercial Generation (MW)

RSA Contracted

Load Forecast (MW)

Actual RSA Contracted Demand

(MW) Incl IOS

Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non-Commercial Units)

Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non-

Commercial Units)

Forecast vs. Actual (RSA Contracted

Demand)

Mon 29/Jun/2020 35,788 457 32,706 32,583 9.8% 11.2% 0.4%Tue 30/Jun/2020 36,805 341 32,536 32,616 12.8% 13.9% -0.2%Wed 01/Jul/2020 35,517 426 32,425 32,639 8.8% 10.1% -0.7%Thu 02/Jul/2020 35,044 439 31,445 32,165 9.0% 10.3% -2.2%Fri 03/Jul/2020 34,802 372 30,803 31,080 12.0% 13.2% -0.9%Sat 04/Jul/2020 34,181 375 30,738 30,726 11.2% 12.5% 0.0%

Sun 05/Jul/2020 33,573 374 31,001 30,709 9.3% 10.5% 1.0% Notes: 1. Available Dispatchable Generation means all generation resources that can be dispatched by Eskom and includes capacity available from all

emergency generation resources.

2. RSA Contracted Load Forecast is the total official day-ahead hourly forecast. Residual Load Forecast excludes the expected generation from renewables.

3. Actual Residual Demand is the aggregated metered hourly sent-out generation and imports from dispatchable resources, and includes demand reductions. The Actual RSA Contracted Demand includes renewable generation.

4. Net Maximum Dispatchable Capacity (including imports and emergency generation resources) = 48 522 MW (Incl. non-comm. Kusile units).

5. These figures do not include any demand side products.

6. The peak hours for the residual demand can differ from that of the RSA contracted demand, depending on renewable generation.

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Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 2 of 5

Week-on-Week Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Energy Sent Out 4,203 GWhWeek-on-Week Growth -4.95 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -8.44 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 27 : Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics

Year 01 Jan to 05 Jul Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) Unit2015 118,177 229,552 GWh2016 116,665 226,721 GWh2017 115,202 225,203 GWh2018 114,573 224,202 GWh2019 112,848 219,563 GWh

2020 (YTD) 103,860 GWh

Annual Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics

Week-on-Week Residual Energy Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Energy Demand 4,205 GWhWeek-on-Week Growth -4.99 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -8.24 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 27 : Residual Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Year 01 Jan to 05 Jul Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) Unit2015 119,441 231,154 GWh2016 116,718 226,808 GWh2017 115,208 225,248 GWh2018 114,668 224,594 GWh2019 113,551 220,924 GWh

2020 (YTD) 104,735 GWh

Annual Residual Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Week-on-Week RSA Contracted Energy Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Energy Demand 4,405 GWhWeek-on-Week Growth -5.17 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -7.87 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 27 : RSA Contracted Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Year 01 Jan to 05 Jul Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) Unit2015 123,286 239,545 GWh2016 121,832 238,069 GWh2017 120,334 235,426 GWh2018 119,973 235,482 GWh2019 119,198 232,511 GWh

2020 (YTD) 110,391 GWh

Annual RSA Contracted Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

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Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 3 of 5

Week-on-Week Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Peak Demand 31,524 MWWeek-on-Week Growth -3.44 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -1.10 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 27 : Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Statistics

Year Peak Date Annual Peak Unit2015 Tue 28-Jul-2015 33,343 MW2016 Thu 04-Aug-2016 34,181 MW2017 Tue 30-May-2017 35,457 MW2018 Mon 16-Jul-2018 34,256 MW2019 Thu 30-May-2019 33,066 MW

2020 (YTD) Wed 17-Jun-2020 32,703 MW

Annual Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Statistics

Week-on-Week Residual Peak Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Peak Demand 31,653 MWWeek-on-Week Growth -3.38 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -2.71 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 27 : Residual Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Year Peak Date Annual Peak Unit2015 Thu 11-Jun-2015 34,145 MW2016 Thu 07-Jul-2016 34,488 MW2017 Tue 30-May-2017 35,517 MW2018 Tue 29-May-2018 34,907 MW2019 Thu 30-May-2019 33,746 MW

2020 (YTD) Wed 17-Jun-2020 32,833 MW

Annual Residual Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Week-on-Week RSA Contracted Peak Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Peak Demand 32,639 MWWeek-on-Week Growth -4.23 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -1.91 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 27 : RSA Contracted Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Year Peak Date Annual Peak Unit2015 Thu 11-Jun-2015 34,499 MW2016 Mon 30-May-2016 34,913 MW2017 Tue 30-May-2017 35,769 MW2018 Tue 29-May-2018 35,345 MW2019 Thu 30-May-2019 34,510 MW

2020 (YTD) Wed 17-Jun-2020 33,850 MW

Annual RSA Contracted Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

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Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 4 of 5

Risk Level Description

Green Adequate Generation to meet Demand and Reserves.Yellow < 1 000MW Possibly short to meet Reserves

Orange 1 001MW – 2 000MW Definitively short to meet Reserves and possibly Demand

Red > 2 001MW Short to meet Demand and Reserves

MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MWWeek Start Week RSA

Contracted Forecast

Residual Forecast

Available Dispatchable

Capacity

Available Capacity (Less

OR and UA)

Planned Maintenance

Unplanned Outage

Assumption (UA)

Planned Risk Level

(-13200 MW)

Likely Risk Senario

(-15200 MW)06-Jul-20 28 32506 31221 44159 30959 4363 11000 -263 -226313-Jul-20 29 32891 31049 43881 30681 4641 11000 -369 -236920-Jul-20 30 32295 31258 43007 29807 5515 11000 -1452 -345227-Jul-20 31 31935 30899 42769 29569 5753 11000 -1330 -333003-Aug-20 32 31518 30376 43408 30208 5114 11000 -168 -216810-Aug-20 33 31654 30512 42487 29287 6035 11000 -1225 -322517-Aug-20 34 31011 29869 42847 29647 5675 11000 -222 -222224-Aug-20 35 30871 29728 42697 29497 5825 11000 -232 -223231-Aug-20 36 31657 30291 43151 29951 5371 11000 -341 -234107-Sep-20 37 31486 30121 42600 29400 5922 11000 -721 -272114-Sep-20 38 31147 29782 42691 29491 5831 11000 -291 -229121-Sep-20 39 30583 29218 42216 29016 6306 11000 -203 -220328-Sep-20 40 31015 29549 42273 29073 6249 11000 -476 -247605-Oct-20 41 31873 30291 43866 30666 4656 11000 375 -1625

Weekly Generation Availability

14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 YTD 2019

Energy Availability Factor (Eskom EAF) 59.50 62.95 66.72 67.82 65.92 71.27 70.59 70.69 71.75 73.07 73.26 73.07 70.04 70.59 65.81 66.93

Planned Outage Factor 21.86 17.71 13.14 13.38 9.11 5.42 4.87 8.31 6.98 4.16 5.03 3.29 5.72 7.08 8.97 9.94

Unplanned Outage Factor 16.77 17.69 18.34 16.36 20.88 19.43 19.92 15.91 16.41 18.40 17.48 19.64 20.32 18.59 22.64 21.57

Other Outage Factor 1.87 1.65 1.80 2.44 4.09 3.88 4.62 5.09 4.86 4.37 4.23 4.00 3.92 3.74 2.58 1.56

Week Annual (Jan - Dec)

EAF: Ratio of the available energy generation over a given time period to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time period. Outage Factors: Ratio of energy losses over a given time period to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time period. YTD: Year-to-Date (01 January of current year to current week) Three Month Outlook This is the forecast demand vs. available generating capacity for each week for 3 months ahead. Colour codes ranging from Green (no shortage) to Red (worst case) are used to indicate the absence or presence of a capacity constraint.

Notes - Assumptions critical: The maintenance plan included in these assumptions includes a base scenario of outages (planned risk level). As there is opportunity for further outages, these will be included. This “likely risk scenario” includes an additional 2000 MW of outages on the base plan. The expected imports at Apollo is included. Avon and Dedisa is also included. The forecast used is the latest operational weekly residual peak forecast, which excludes the expected renewable generation. Operating Reserve (OR) from Generation: 2 200 MW Unplanned Outage Assumption (UA): 11 000 MW Reserves: OR + UA = 13 200 MW Eskom Installed Capacity: 47 517 MW (Incl. non-comm. Kusile units). Installed Dispatchable Capacity: 48 522 MW (Incl. Avon and Dedisa). Key:

Medium Term Peak Demand/Capacity Forecast Please go to the link below for the Medium-term System Adequacy Outlook - 2020 to 2024. Download the Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook 2020 to 2024 (Published 30 October 2019).

Page 5: Weekly System Status Report 2020 w27 - eskom.co.za · Weekly System Status Report – 2020 Week 27 (29/06/2020 – 05/07/2020) Introduction This document is intended to provide a

Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 5 of 5

500.02,032.12,111.74,665.5

Current Installed Capacity (MW)CSPPV

Wind (Eskom+IPP)Total (Incl other REs)

Renewable Energy Statistics Note: Times are expressed as hour beginning

Cal Year Indicator CSP PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs)

Maximum 502.1 1,556.0 1,904.3 3,530.6

Max Date 24-Sep-2019 11:00 07-Apr-2020 12:00 25-May-2020 13:00 27-Oct-2019 13:00

Maximum 200.9 1,350.5 1,229.8 2,576.3

Max Date 11-Aug-2016 14:00 16-Dec-2016 12:00 23-Dec-2016 13:00 23-Dec-2016 13:00

Maximum 302.0 1,432.5 1,708.2 3,142.7

Max Date 07-Nov-2017 10:00 27-Oct-2017 12:00 25-Dec-2017 18:00 13-Dec-2017 13:00

Maximum 399.7 1,392.1 1,902.3 3,298.9

Max Date 04-Dec-2018 16:00 03-Oct-2018 12:00 02-Oct-2018 16:00 28-Sep-2018 11:00

Maximum 502.1 1,375.6 1,872.0 3,530.6

Max Date 24-Sep-2019 11:00 19-Jan-2019 12:00 14-Dec-2019 15:00 27-Oct-2019 13:00

Maximum 500.2 1,556.0 1,904.3 3,406.1

Max Date 27-Jan-2020 14:00 07-Apr-2020 12:00 25-May-2020 13:00 06-Apr-2020 13:00

Maximum Contribution (MW) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification)

All Time

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Cal Year Indicator CSP PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs)

Annual Energy Contribution (MWh) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification)

All Time

Maximum

Annual

Energy1,557,151 3,324,989 6,624,642 11,586,945

6,951,2612016Total

Energy529,522 2,630,141 3,730,771

2017Total

Energy687,703 3,324,857 5,081,023 9,198,632

10,887,9022018Total

Energy1,031,288 3,282,124 6,467,095

2019Total

Energy1,557,151 3,324,989 6,624,642 11,586,945

6,074,8122020Total

Energy768,601 1,898,733 3,360,266

Cal Year Indicator Total (Incl other REs)

Maximum 1,464

Max Date 05-Jul-2019 to 06-Jul-2019

Maximum 828

Max Date 30-Aug-2016 to 31-Aug-2016

Maximum 1,038

Max Date 19-Jun-2017 to 20-Jun-2017

Maximum 1,336

Max Date 01-Sep-2018 to 02-Sep-2018

Maximum 1,464

Max Date 05-Jul-2019 to 06-Jul-2019

Maximum 1,459

Max Date 24-May-2020 to 25-May-2020

Maximum Difference between Consecutive Evening Peaks (MW) -

based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification)

All Time

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020