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Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 1 of 5 Weekly System Status Report – 2020 Week 26 (22/06/2020 – 28/06/2020) Introduction This document is intended to provide a general picture of the Adequacy of the National Electricity Supply System in the medium term. The Report will be updated weekly, on Tuesdays and circulated Wednesdays, thereafter, published on the Eskom website, updated on Wednesdays. The values contained in this report are unverified and not official yet and can change at any time. Disclaimer The Data published here is for information purposes only. The content is subject to verification and validation. Eskom shall not be held responsible for any errors or it being misleading or incomplete and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, damages or expenses, howsoever, incurred or suffered, resulting or arising, from the use of this Data or any reliance placed on it. Historic Daily Peak System Capacity/Demand Date Available Dispatchable Generation (MW) Non-commercial Generation (MW) Residual Load Forecast (MW) Actual Residual Demand (MW) Incl IOS Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non- Commercial Units) Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non- Commercial Units) Forecast vs. Actual (Residual Demand) Mon 22/Jun/2020 33,654 550 31,563 31,578 6.6% 8.3% 0.0% Tue 23/Jun/2020 33,795 548 31,740 31,360 7.8% 9.5% 1.2% Wed 24/Jun/2020 33,486 453 31,260 31,300 7.0% 8.4% -0.1% Thu 25/Jun/2020 34,953 453 31,260 30,575 14.3% 15.8% 2.2% Fri 26/Jun/2020 34,236 453 30,111 30,023 14.0% 15.5% 0.3% Sat 27/Jun/2020 34,177 452 29,765 28,967 18.0% 19.5% 2.8% Sun 28/Jun/2020 34,043 456 30,333 30,060 13.3% 14.8% 0.9% Date Total Available Generation Incl Renewables (MW) Non-commercial Generation (MW) RSA Contracted Load Forecast (MW) Actual RSA Contracted Demand (MW) Incl IOS Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non- Commercial Units) Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non- Commercial Units) Forecast vs. Actual (RSA Contracted Demand) Mon 22/Jun/2020 34,258 550 32,210 32,181 6.5% 8.2% 0.1% Tue 23/Jun/2020 34,536 548 32,549 32,101 7.6% 9.3% 1.4% Wed 24/Jun/2020 34,620 453 32,457 32,434 6.7% 8.1% 0.1% Thu 25/Jun/2020 36,404 453 32,752 32,027 13.7% 15.1% 2.3% Fri 26/Jun/2020 35,204 453 31,366 30,991 13.6% 15.1% 1.2% Sat 27/Jun/2020 36,251 452 31,851 31,041 16.8% 18.2% 2.6% Sun 28/Jun/2020 35,004 456 31,492 31,020 12.8% 14.3% 1.5% Notes: 1. Available Dispatchable Generation means all generation resources that can be dispatched by Eskom and includes capacity available from all emergency generation resources. 2. RSA Contracted Load Forecast is the total official day-ahead hourly forecast. Residual Load Forecast excludes the expected generation from renewables. 3. Actual Residual Demand is the aggregated metered hourly sent-out generation and imports from dispatchable resources, and includes demand reductions. The Actual RSA Contracted Demand includes renewable generation. 4. Net Maximum Dispatchable Capacity (including imports and emergency generation resources) = 48 522 MW (Incl. non-comm. Kusile units). 5. These figures do not include any demand side products. 6. The peak hours for the residual demand can differ from that of the RSA contracted demand, depending on renewable generation.

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Page 1: Weekly System Status Report 2020 w26 - eskom.co.za · Weekly System Status Report – 2020 Week 26 (22/06/2020 – 28/06/2020) Introduction This document is intended to provide a

Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 1 of 5

Weekly System Status Report – 2020 Week 26 (22/06/2020 – 28/06/2020)

Introduction This document is intended to provide a general picture of the Adequacy of the National Electricity Supply System in the medium term. The Report will be updated weekly, on Tuesdays and circulated Wednesdays, thereafter, published on the Eskom website, updated on Wednesdays. The values contained in this report are unverified and not official yet and can change at any time. Disclaimer The Data published here is for information purposes only. The content is subject to verification and validation. Eskom shall not be held responsible for any errors or it being misleading or incomplete and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, damages or expenses, howsoever, incurred or suffered, resulting or arising, from the use of this Data or any reliance placed on it. Historic Daily Peak System Capacity/Demand

DateAvailable

Dispatchable Generation (MW)

Non-commercial Generation (MW)

Residual Load Forecast (MW)

Actual Residual Demand (MW) Incl

IOS

Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non-Commercial Units)

Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non-

Commercial Units)

Forecast vs. Actual (Residual Demand)

Mon 22/Jun/2020 33,654 550 31,563 31,578 6.6% 8.3% 0.0%Tue 23/Jun/2020 33,795 548 31,740 31,360 7.8% 9.5% 1.2%Wed 24/Jun/2020 33,486 453 31,260 31,300 7.0% 8.4% -0.1%Thu 25/Jun/2020 34,953 453 31,260 30,575 14.3% 15.8% 2.2%Fri 26/Jun/2020 34,236 453 30,111 30,023 14.0% 15.5% 0.3%Sat 27/Jun/2020 34,177 452 29,765 28,967 18.0% 19.5% 2.8%

Sun 28/Jun/2020 34,043 456 30,333 30,060 13.3% 14.8% 0.9%

DateTotal Available Generation Incl

Renewables (MW)

Non-commercial Generation (MW)

RSA Contracted

Load Forecast (MW)

Actual RSA Contracted Demand

(MW) Incl IOS

Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non-Commercial Units)

Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non-

Commercial Units)

Forecast vs. Actual (RSA Contracted

Demand)

Mon 22/Jun/2020 34,258 550 32,210 32,181 6.5% 8.2% 0.1%Tue 23/Jun/2020 34,536 548 32,549 32,101 7.6% 9.3% 1.4%Wed 24/Jun/2020 34,620 453 32,457 32,434 6.7% 8.1% 0.1%Thu 25/Jun/2020 36,404 453 32,752 32,027 13.7% 15.1% 2.3%Fri 26/Jun/2020 35,204 453 31,366 30,991 13.6% 15.1% 1.2%Sat 27/Jun/2020 36,251 452 31,851 31,041 16.8% 18.2% 2.6%

Sun 28/Jun/2020 35,004 456 31,492 31,020 12.8% 14.3% 1.5% Notes: 1. Available Dispatchable Generation means all generation resources that can be dispatched by Eskom and includes capacity available from all

emergency generation resources.

2. RSA Contracted Load Forecast is the total official day-ahead hourly forecast. Residual Load Forecast excludes the expected generation from renewables.

3. Actual Residual Demand is the aggregated metered hourly sent-out generation and imports from dispatchable resources, and includes demand reductions. The Actual RSA Contracted Demand includes renewable generation.

4. Net Maximum Dispatchable Capacity (including imports and emergency generation resources) = 48 522 MW (Incl. non-comm. Kusile units).

5. These figures do not include any demand side products.

6. The peak hours for the residual demand can differ from that of the RSA contracted demand, depending on renewable generation.

Page 2: Weekly System Status Report 2020 w26 - eskom.co.za · Weekly System Status Report – 2020 Week 26 (22/06/2020 – 28/06/2020) Introduction This document is intended to provide a

Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 2 of 5

Week-on-Week Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Energy Sent Out 4,162 GWhWeek-on-Week Growth -6.21 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -8.58 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 26 : Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics

Year 01 Jan to 28 Jun Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) Unit2015 113,586 229,552 GWh2016 112,132 226,721 GWh2017 110,750 225,203 GWh2018 110,092 224,202 GWh2019 108,428 219,563 GWh

2020 (YTD) 99,659 GWh

Annual Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics

Week-on-Week Residual Energy Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Energy Demand 4,163 GWhWeek-on-Week Growth -6.22 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -8.37 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 26 : Residual Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Year 01 Jan to 28 Jun Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) Unit2015 114,840 231,154 GWh2016 112,183 226,808 GWh2017 110,755 225,248 GWh2018 110,185 224,594 GWh2019 109,128 220,924 GWh

2020 (YTD) 100,532 GWh

Annual Residual Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Week-on-Week RSA Contracted Energy Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Energy Demand 4,409 GWhWeek-on-Week Growth -5.15 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -7.98 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 26 : RSA Contracted Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Year 01 Jan to 28 Jun Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) Unit2015 118,575 239,545 GWh2016 117,120 238,069 GWh2017 115,745 235,426 GWh2018 115,288 235,482 GWh2019 114,572 232,511 GWh

2020 (YTD) 105,987 GWh

Annual RSA Contracted Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

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Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 3 of 5

Week-on-Week Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Peak Demand 31,223 MWWeek-on-Week Growth -4.54 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -1.10 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 26 : Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Statistics

Year Peak Date Annual Peak Unit2015 Tue 28-Jul-2015 33,343 MW2016 Thu 04-Aug-2016 34,181 MW2017 Tue 30-May-2017 35,457 MW2018 Mon 16-Jul-2018 34,256 MW2019 Thu 30-May-2019 33,066 MW

2020 (YTD) Wed 17-Jun-2020 32,703 MW

Annual Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Statistics

Week-on-Week Residual Peak Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Peak Demand 31,578 MWWeek-on-Week Growth -3.98 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -2.71 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 26 : Residual Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Year Peak Date Annual Peak Unit2015 Thu 11-Jun-2015 34,145 MW2016 Thu 07-Jul-2016 34,488 MW2017 Tue 30-May-2017 35,517 MW2018 Tue 29-May-2018 34,907 MW2019 Thu 30-May-2019 33,746 MW

2020 (YTD) Wed 17-Jun-2020 32,833 MW

Annual Residual Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Week-on-Week RSA Contracted Peak Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Peak Demand 32,434 MWWeek-on-Week Growth -4.52 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -1.93 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 26 : RSA Contracted Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Year Peak Date Annual Peak Unit2015 Thu 11-Jun-2015 34,499 MW2016 Mon 30-May-2016 34,913 MW2017 Tue 30-May-2017 35,769 MW2018 Tue 29-May-2018 35,345 MW2019 Thu 30-May-2019 34,510 MW

2020 (YTD) Wed 17-Jun-2020 33,846 MW

Annual RSA Contracted Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

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Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 4 of 5

Risk Level Description

Green Adequate Generation to meet Demand and Reserves.Yellow < 1 000MW Possibly short to meet Reserves

Orange 1 001MW – 2 000MW Definitively short to meet Reserves and possibly Demand

Red > 2 001MW Short to meet Demand and Reserves

MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MWWeek Start Week RSA

Contracted Forecast

Residual Forecast

Available Dispatchable

Capacity

Available Capacity (Less

OR and UA)

Planned Maintenance

Unplanned Outage

Assumption (UA)

Planned Risk Level

(-13200 MW)

Likely Risk Senario

(-15200 MW)29-Jun-20 27 32705 31759 43627 30427 4895 11000 -1333 -333306-Jul-20 28 32912 31594 43199 29999 5323 11000 -1596 -359613-Jul-20 29 32086 31049 44265 31065 4257 11000 15 -198520-Jul-20 30 32295 31258 43274 30074 5247 11000 -1184 -318427-Jul-20 31 31935 30899 43183 29983 5339 11000 -916 -291603-Aug-20 32 31518 30376 43692 30492 4829 11000 116 -188410-Aug-20 33 31654 30512 42930 29730 5592 11000 -782 -278217-Aug-20 34 31011 29869 42930 29730 5592 11000 -139 -213924-Aug-20 35 30871 29728 42412 29212 6110 11000 -517 -251731-Aug-20 36 31657 30291 42858 29658 5664 11000 -634 -263407-Sep-20 37 31486 30121 42710 29510 5812 11000 -611 -261114-Sep-20 38 31147 29782 42343 29143 6179 11000 -639 -263921-Sep-20 39 30815 29450 41768 28568 6754 11000 -882 -288228-Sep-20 40 31467 30102 41698 28498 6824 11000 -1604 -3604

Weekly Generation Availability

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 YTD 2019

Energy Availability Factor (Eskom EAF) 65.12 59.50 62.95 66.72 67.82 65.93 71.27 70.59 70.67 71.75 73.30 73.54 73.28 70.27 65.65 66.93

Planned Outage Factor 10.37 21.86 17.71 13.14 13.38 9.11 5.42 4.87 8.31 6.98 4.13 4.96 3.27 5.71 9.04 9.94

Unplanned Outage Factor 23.21 16.77 17.69 18.34 16.36 20.87 19.43 19.92 15.93 16.41 18.21 17.28 19.46 20.12 22.78 21.57

Other Outage Factor 1.30 1.87 1.65 1.80 2.44 4.09 3.88 4.62 5.09 4.86 4.36 4.22 3.99 3.90 2.53 1.56

Week Annual (Jan - Dec)

EAF: Ratio of the available energy generation over a given time period to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time period. Outage Factors: Ratio of energy losses over a given time period to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time period. YTD: Year-to-Date (01 January of current year to current week) Three Month Outlook This is the forecast demand vs. available generating capacity for each week for 3 months ahead. Colour codes ranging from Green (no shortage) to Red (worst case) are used to indicate the absence or presence of a capacity constraint.

Notes - Assumptions critical: The maintenance plan included in these assumptions includes a base scenario of outages (planned risk level). As there is opportunity for further outages, these will be included. This “likely risk scenario” includes an additional 2000 MW of outages on the base plan. The expected imports at Apollo is included. Avon and Dedisa is also included. The forecast used is the latest operational weekly residual peak forecast, which excludes the expected renewable generation. Operating Reserve (OR) from Generation: 2 200 MW Unplanned Outage Assumption (UA): 11 000 MW Reserves: OR + UA = 13 200 MW Eskom Installed Capacity: 47 517 MW (Incl. non-comm. Kusile units). Installed Dispatchable Capacity: 48 522 MW (Incl. Avon and Dedisa). Key:

Medium Term Peak Demand/Capacity Forecast Please go to the link below for the Medium-term System Adequacy Outlook - 2020 to 2024. Download the Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook 2020 to 2024 (Published 30 October 2019).

Page 5: Weekly System Status Report 2020 w26 - eskom.co.za · Weekly System Status Report – 2020 Week 26 (22/06/2020 – 28/06/2020) Introduction This document is intended to provide a

Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 5 of 5

500.02,032.12,111.74,665.5

Current Installed Capacity (MW)CSPPV

Wind (Eskom+IPP)Total (Incl other REs)

Renewable Energy Statistics Note: Times are expressed as hour beginning

Cal Year Indicator CSP PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs)

Maximum 502.1 1,556.0 1,904.3 3,530.6

Max Date 24-Sep-2019 11:00 07-Apr-2020 12:00 25-May-2020 13:00 27-Oct-2019 13:00

Maximum 200.9 1,350.5 1,229.8 2,576.3

Max Date 11-Aug-2016 14:00 16-Dec-2016 12:00 23-Dec-2016 13:00 23-Dec-2016 13:00

Maximum 302.0 1,432.5 1,708.2 3,142.7

Max Date 07-Nov-2017 10:00 27-Oct-2017 12:00 25-Dec-2017 18:00 13-Dec-2017 13:00

Maximum 399.7 1,392.1 1,902.3 3,298.9

Max Date 04-Dec-2018 16:00 03-Oct-2018 12:00 02-Oct-2018 16:00 28-Sep-2018 11:00

Maximum 502.1 1,375.6 1,872.0 3,530.6

Max Date 24-Sep-2019 11:00 19-Jan-2019 12:00 14-Dec-2019 15:00 27-Oct-2019 13:00

Maximum 500.2 1,556.0 1,904.3 3,406.1

Max Date 27-Jan-2020 14:00 07-Apr-2020 12:00 25-May-2020 13:00 06-Apr-2020 13:00

Maximum Contribution (MW) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification)

All Time

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Cal Year Indicator CSP PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs)

Annual Energy Contribution (MWh) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification)

All Time

Maximum

Annual

Energy1,557,151 3,324,989 6,624,642 11,586,945

6,951,2612016Total

Energy529,522 2,630,141 3,730,771

2017Total

Energy687,703 3,324,857 5,081,023 9,198,632

10,887,9022018Total

Energy1,031,288 3,282,124 6,467,095

2019Total

Energy1,557,151 3,324,989 6,624,642 11,586,945

5,509,4582020Total

Energy714,634 1,773,378 2,977,478

Cal Year Indicator Total (Incl other REs)

Maximum 1,464

Max Date 05-Jul-2019 to 06-Jul-2019

Maximum 828

Max Date 30-Aug-2016 to 31-Aug-2016

Maximum 1,038

Max Date 19-Jun-2017 to 20-Jun-2017

Maximum 1,336

Max Date 01-Sep-2018 to 02-Sep-2018

Maximum 1,464

Max Date 05-Jul-2019 to 06-Jul-2019

Maximum 1,459

Max Date 24-May-2020 to 25-May-2020

Maximum Difference between Consecutive Evening Peaks (MW) -

based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification)

All Time

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020