8
Market insight By Theodore Ntalakos SnP/ Newbuildings Broker ECO designs - revisited The ECO vessels are already here but the oil and bunker prices are plum- meng to their cheapest level since 2010. Is this development coming as a verificaon to the shipowners that have been dismissive of the benefits of the new designs? Moreover, are we experiencing the two er market that was discussed a few years ago? On the sale & purchase front, the answer is clearly a yes... and a no... Alt- hough there is nothing new about the preference towards Japanese vessels from both charterers and buyers as they were always a different er from Chinese, there is a substanal price gap of about twenty percent between the modern Chinese vessels and the ones built based on new designs with electronic engines, opmized hulls, energy efficiency devices etc. Further- more, good quality new Chinese ships maintain their values not far from their Japanese piers. We recently compared the consumpon of two kam- sarmax vessels, one was built in Japan in 2007 and one in China in 2013 equipped with electronic engine and fuel efficient propeller (no opmized hull form). The fuel efficiency of the two vessels was very similar. So the new ECO vessels and all the new technologies used on them are already taking their market share, the charterers' preference and one can safely say that are here to stay. With the oil price plummeng however, it's also easy to make the opposite argument. I disnctly remember a discussion I had with a well-known Taiwanese shipowner during a forum; I was (I sll am) defending the new ECO designs and was repeang to him The oil price will only go up!to which he replied with his experience from the crises of the previous decades saying I fully agree with you (and all the energy reports on the planet for that maer) . . . but what if it doesnt?Cheaper bunkers clearly favor the owners that bought discounted Chinese ships that few people would consider, mainly because of their higher fuel consumpon. The desired rate of return on an investment can come either from the higher earnings of a highly efficient ECO vessel, but also from the lower inial investment on a less fuel efficient vessel. Fact is that the fuel efficiency benefit disappears as bunker prices drop. It also seems that this trend will probably connue at least in the short term as according to data from the Internaonal Energy Agency, the forecast of global oil demand for 2014 has been revised at lower levels since last month on reduced expecta- ons of economic growth and the weak recent trend. Annual demand growth is now projected to drop in Q1 & Q2 2015 and rise again in Q3 of 2015, as the macroeconomic backdrop improves. On the other hand, while new sources of oil supply have driven the oil price to its current lows, not seen for almost half a decade, demand for oil has actually been on the rise and as more oil is being produced and consumed now than in 2011 it will be interesng to see how the oil price - and the bun- ker prices - will develop in the future. The truth is that irrespecve of bunker prices, a more efficient vessel will always be more compeve and there is no doubt that there are other consideraons when evaluang a new ship- ping investment, such as EEDI and emissions' control imposed by the regula- tory bodies that only new ships can address. And although complying with these regulaons may not have a posive effect in the pockets of shipown- ers like the reduced fuel consumpon does, for a forward looking owner the new designs and the new technologies should be the main part of their strategy. Emission control is also here to stay and the industry must adapt to the new requirements. Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable+ ) With the excepon of Panamaxes, the rest of the Dry Bulk market was sll struggling for the bigger part of last week, while towards Friday things improved as Capesize rates finally started moving up. The BDI closed today (21/10/2014) at 1,090 points, up by 117 points compared to Mondays levels (20/10/2014) and an increase of 142 points com- pared to previous Tuesdays closing (14/10/2014). In the crude carriers market rates benefied further from soſtening bunker prices, while senment is very posive for the upcoming winter season. The BDTI Monday (20/10/2014) was at 702 points, an increase of 19 points and the BCTI at 600, an increase of 26 points compared to previous Mon- days (13/10/2014)levels. Sale & Purchase (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Soſt - ) Acvity on the SnP side has slowed down further this past week, while the uncertainty regarding dry bulk freight rates has taken its toll on secondhand volumes. Buyers seem to have been scared off for now, creang without a doubt opportunies for good bargains for those who are willing to bet on a posive market reversal soon. On the tanker side, we had the sale of the OTTOMAN NOBILITY(152,622dwt-blt 05, S. Korea) which was picked up for a price of US$ 45.0m. On the dry bulker side, we had the sale of the REGINA OLDENDORFF(37,504dwt-blt 06, Japan), which went for a price of $ 16.7m. Newbuilding (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Stable- ) Things on the newbuilding front were quieter compared to the week prior, with tanker orders slowing down, while those for dry bulkers re- mained of thin volume. The majority of orders reported most recently were of non convenonal vessels, like offshore, or gas carriers, which sll gather a good share of the investment interest out there. Prices have stalled across the board for now, while everyones aenon is mainly on the dry bulker side, where further discounts are currently expected from yards that will have to find new ways to sell the new- building story. The performance of the freight market will certainly be crical of how hard selling that story will be. It seems that even if freights improve soon, owners will not rush back to the yards like they did in 2013 but will rather wait to see solid market performance for a longer period before they do. In terms of recently reported deals, Itochu Corp has placed an order for 2 MR product tankers (35,000dwt) at Kitanihon, in Japan, with delivery set for 2017. Demolion (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- ) As last week progressed, breakers in the Indian sub-Connent were drawn deeper into doubt regarding the fundamentals of the market. From one hand cheap Chinese scrap steel has been pushing prices down and on the other most buyers found themselves commied to excessive levels, following the aggressive demo buying of the past month. Alt- hough prices have overall remained stable, there is a sense that we might soon see discounts bigger than $15/ldt. The further weakening of the Indian Rupee has also added to this environment of insecurity, while at the same me acvity has dropped considerably, with most of the sales that are now reported, involving deals agreed or concluded earlier on. The Diwali holidays are also expected to weigh down on acvity as well, while at the same me breakers in Bangladesh and Pakistan ap- pear to be also losing their mood for now, as senment is starng to soſten across the demo market. Needless to add that prices in China remained soſt, while further declines are also expected before the end of the year. Average prices this week for wet tonnage were at around 300-500$/ldt and dry units received about 280-475$/ldt. Weekly Market Report Issue: Week 42 | Tuesday 21 st October 2014

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Page 1: Weekly Market Report - Maritime Connectormaritime-connector.com/documents/Intermodal Weekly...growth is now projected to drop in Q1 & Q2 2015 and rise again in Q3 of 2015, as the macroeconomic

Market insight

By Theodore Ntalakos

SnP/ Newbuildings Broker

ECO designs - revisited

The ECO vessels are already here but the oil and bunker prices are plum-meting to their cheapest level since 2010. Is this development coming as a verification to the shipowners that have been dismissive of the benefits of the new designs? Moreover, are we experiencing the two tier market that was discussed a few years ago?

On the sale & purchase front, the answer is clearly a yes... and a no... Alt-hough there is nothing new about the preference towards Japanese vessels from both charterers and buyers as they were always a different tier from Chinese, there is a substantial price gap of about twenty percent between the modern Chinese vessels and the ones built based on new designs with electronic engines, optimized hulls, energy efficiency devices etc. Further-more, good quality new Chinese ships maintain their values not far from their Japanese piers. We recently compared the consumption of two kam-sarmax vessels, one was built in Japan in 2007 and one in China in 2013 equipped with electronic engine and fuel efficient propeller (no optimized hull form). The fuel efficiency of the two vessels was very similar. So the new ECO vessels and all the new technologies used on them are already taking their market share, the charterers' preference and one can safely say that are here to stay. With the oil price plummeting however, it's also easy to make the opposite argument. I distinctly remember a discussion I had with a well-known Taiwanese shipowner during a forum; I was (I still am) defending the new ECO designs and was repeating to him “The oil price will only go up!” to which he replied with his experience from the crises of the previous decades saying “I fully agree with you (and all the energy reports on the planet for that matter) . . . but what if it doesn’t?”

Cheaper bunkers clearly favor the owners that bought discounted Chinese ships that few people would consider, mainly because of their higher fuel consumption. The desired rate of return on an investment can come either from the higher earnings of a highly efficient ECO vessel, but also from the lower initial investment on a less fuel efficient vessel. Fact is that the fuel efficiency benefit disappears as bunker prices drop. It also seems that this trend will probably continue at least in the short term as according to data from the International Energy Agency, the forecast of global oil demand for 2014 has been revised at lower levels since last month on reduced expecta-tions of economic growth and the weak recent trend. Annual demand growth is now projected to drop in Q1 & Q2 2015 and rise again in Q3 of 2015, as the macroeconomic backdrop improves.

On the other hand, while new sources of oil supply have driven the oil price to its current lows, not seen for almost half a decade, demand for oil has actually been on the rise and as more oil is being produced and consumed now than in 2011 it will be interesting to see how the oil price - and the bun-ker prices - will develop in the future. The truth is that irrespective of bunker prices, a more efficient vessel will always be more competitive and there is no doubt that there are other considerations when evaluating a new ship-ping investment, such as EEDI and emissions' control imposed by the regula-tory bodies that only new ships can address. And although complying with these regulations may not have a positive effect in the pockets of shipown-ers like the reduced fuel consumption does, for a forward looking owner the new designs and the new technologies should be the main part of their strategy. Emission control is also here to stay and the industry must adapt to the new requirements.

Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable+ )

With the exception of Panamaxes, the rest of the Dry Bulk market was still struggling for the bigger part of last week, while towards Friday things improved as Capesize rates finally started moving up. The BDI closed today (21/10/2014) at 1,090 points, up by 117 points compared to Monday’s levels (20/10/2014) and an increase of 142 points com-pared to previous Tuesday’s closing (14/10/2014). In the crude carriers market rates benefitted further from softening bunker prices, while sentiment is very positive for the upcoming winter season. The BDTI Monday (20/10/2014) was at 702 points, an increase of 19 points and the BCTI at 600, an increase of 26 points compared to previous Mon-day’s (13/10/2014)levels.

Sale & Purchase (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Soft - )

Activity on the SnP side has slowed down further this past week, while the uncertainty regarding dry bulk freight rates has taken its toll on secondhand volumes. Buyers seem to have been scared off for now, creating without a doubt opportunities for good bargains for those who are willing to bet on a positive market reversal soon. On the tanker side, we had the sale of the “OTTOMAN NOBILITY” (152,622dwt-blt 05, S. Korea) which was picked up for a price of US$ 45.0m. On the dry bulker side, we had the sale of the “REGINA OLDENDORFF” (37,504dwt-blt 06, Japan), which went for a price of $ 16.7m.

Newbuilding (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Stable- )

Things on the newbuilding front were quieter compared to the week prior, with tanker orders slowing down, while those for dry bulkers re-mained of thin volume. The majority of orders reported most recently were of non conventional vessels, like offshore, or gas carriers, which still gather a good share of the investment interest out there. Prices have stalled across the board for now, while everyone’s attention is mainly on the dry bulker side, where further discounts are currently expected from yards that will have to find new ways to sell the new-building story. The performance of the freight market will certainly be critical of how hard selling that story will be. It seems that even if freights improve soon, owners will not rush back to the yards like they did in 2013 but will rather wait to see solid market performance for a longer period before they do. In terms of recently reported deals, Itochu Corp has placed an order for 2 MR product tankers (35,000dwt) at Kitanihon, in Japan, with delivery set for 2017.

Demolition (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- )

As last week progressed, breakers in the Indian sub-Continent were drawn deeper into doubt regarding the fundamentals of the market. From one hand cheap Chinese scrap steel has been pushing prices down and on the other most buyers found themselves committed to excessive levels, following the aggressive demo buying of the past month. Alt-hough prices have overall remained stable, there is a sense that we might soon see discounts bigger than $15/ldt. The further weakening of the Indian Rupee has also added to this environment of insecurity, while at the same time activity has dropped considerably, with most of the sales that are now reported, involving deals agreed or concluded earlier on. The Diwali holidays are also expected to weigh down on activity as well, while at the same time breakers in Bangladesh and Pakistan ap-pear to be also losing their mood for now, as sentiment is starting to soften across the demo market. Needless to add that prices in China remained soft, while further declines are also expected before the end of the year. Average prices this week for wet tonnage were at around 300-500$/ldt and dry units received about 280-475$/ldt.

Weekly Market Report

Issue: Week 42 | Tuesday 21st October 2014

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© Intermodal Research 21/10/2014 2

2014 2013

WS

points$/day

WS

points$/day $/day $/day

265k MEG-JAPAN 45 30,099 44 27,558 9.2% 24,765 21,133

280k MEG-USG 23 11,320 23 9,013 25.6% 13,769 7,132

260k WAF-USG 55 40,778 53 36,487 11.8% 35,565 26,890

130k MED-MED 85 37,927 85 36,041 5.2% 27,024 17,714

130k WAF-USAC 80 31,796 85 32,822 -3.1% 21,140 13,756

130k BSEA-MED 88 41,256 88 39,644 4.1% 27,024 17,714

80k MEG-EAST 90 20,181 80 14,804 36.3% 17,130 11,945

80k MED-MED 100 29,202 90 21,569 35.4% 24,410 13,622

80k UKC-UKC 100 19,151 100 17,208 11.3% 32,422 18,604

70k CARIBS-USG 128 28,104 106 19,501 44.1% 24,087 16,381

75k MEG-JAPAN 110 25,083 105 20,720 21.1% 14,198 12,011

55k MEG-JAPAN 125 21,092 118 17,050 23.7% 12,643 12,117

37K UKC-USAC 120 12,616 115 10,053 25.5% 7,403 11,048

30K MED-MED 140 14,880 128 9,755 52.5% 14,210 17,645

55K UKC-USG 115 18,117 115 16,375 10.6% 22,377 14,941

55K MED-USG 113 17,771 113 16,932 5.0% 19,868 12,642

50k CARIBS-USAC 125 17,961 118 14,310 25.5% 24,956 15,083

Vessel Routes

Week 42 Week 41$/day

±%

Dir

tyA

fram

axC

lean

VLC

CSu

ezm

ax

Spot Rates

Oct-14 Sep-14 ±% 2014 2013 2012

300KT DH 75.0 74.0 1.4% 72.8 56.2 62.9

150KT DH 51.2 50.0 2.3% 49.0 40.1 44.9

110KT DH 42.2 41.8 1.0% 37.7 29.2 31.2

75KT DH 32.5 32.5 0.0% 32.8 28.0 26.7

52KT DH 25.5 25.5 0.0% 27.8 24.7 24.6

Aframax

LR1

VLCC

Suezmax

Indicative Market Values ($ Million) - Tankers

Vessel 5yrs old

MR

Chartering

The crude carriers market seems to be currently enjoying a pre-winter mini rally. With activity overall remaining stable and bunker prices taking a dive, freight rates firmed further this past week. The continuously softening price of oil has sided with owners, boosting TCE rates and being a solid sign of increasing global supply of crude. The next OPEC meeting in about a month’s time will provide a better direction for the price of oil, which is expected to remain under pressure in the short term. VL rates closed on the green for yet another week, despite the fact that activity ex-MEG was slow-er mid-week onwards, while the rate for the WAF/USG voyage is currently estimated at above $40,000/day.

The Suezmax market moved sideways overall, with the exception of the rate for the WAF/USAC voyage that softened on the back of lower volumes of fresh business coming through. Overall stable European demand is still supporting rates for cross-MED and Black Sea/Med voyages, while the seg-ment will most probably enjoy a new round of firming rates as charterers start to move more aggressively into the November program.

Rates for Aframaxes noted the biggest gains across the board, with cross-Med business firming further, while at the same time the Caribs Afra surged on the back of strong demand, with fixtures more than doubling compared to the week prior.

Sale & Purchase

In the Suezmax sector, we had the sale of the “OTTOMAN NOBILI-TY” (152,622dwt-blt 05, S. Korea) which was picked up for a price of US$ 45.0m.

In the Product Chemical tankers sector we had the sale of the “FAIRCHEM COLT” (19,953dwt-blt 05, Japan), which was sold to U.S. based Principal Maritime for a price of US$ 21.0m.

Wet Market

Indicative Period Charters

- 18 mos - 'ASHNA' 1999 301,438dwt

- - $ 27,000/day - Petroineos

- 3 yrs - 'STENA ARCTICA' 2005 117,099dwt

- - $ 22,000/day - SHELL

20

70

120

170

220

WS

po

ints

DIRTY - WS RATESTD3 TD5 TD8 TD4

Week 42 Week 41 ±% Diff 2014 2013

300k 1yr TC 31,750 30,750 3.3% 1000 27,000 20,087

300k 3yr TC 34,250 34,250 0.0% 0 29,414 23,594

150k 1yr TC 24,750 24,750 0.0% 0 21,417 16,264

150k 3yr TC 26,250 26,250 0.0% 0 23,426 18,296

110k 1yr TC 20,250 19,500 3.8% 750 16,774 13,534

110k 3yr TC 22,250 21,250 4.7% 1000 18,402 15,248

75k 1yr TC 16,250 16,250 0.0% 0 15,589 15,221

75k 3yr TC 16,750 16,750 0.0% 0 16,420 15,729

52k 1yr TC 14,750 14,250 3.5% 500 14,804 14,591

52k 3yr TC 15,250 15,250 0.0% 0 15,682 15,263

36k 1yr TC 13,250 13,250 0.0% 0 14,173 13,298

36k 3yr TC 14,250 14,250 0.0% 0 15,039 13,907

Panamax

MR

Handy

size

TC Rates

$/day

VLCC

Suezmax

Aframax

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

WS

po

ints

CLEAN - WS RATESTC2 TC4 TC6 TC1

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© Intermodal Research 21/10/2014 3

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500

Ind

ex

Baltic Indices

BCI BPI BSI BHSI BDI

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000$

/da

y

Average T/C Rates

AVR 4TC BCI AVR 4TC BPI AVR 5TC BSI AVR 6TC BHSI

Chartering

The Dry Bulk market closed on the red for yet another week although fol-

lowing Friday sentiment has started to improve on the back of firmer per-

formance of the Capesize market. As we mentioned in our last week’s re-

port, a correction was long overdue and it seems that we are about to ex-

perience one, as this week has also kicked off in a very positive tone as well.

The duration of such reversal is without a doubt key here. Our industry has

been trained to become more optimistic with even a couple of weeks of

good freight performance but it is our feeling that this time round we will

need to see more of that before we pop open the champers.

The Capesize market remained under pressure for yet another week, while

rates for the segment once more noted the biggest declines across the

board. The Atlantic Cape showed no signs of improvement and period num-

bers took another hit. As things started to improve somewhat in the Pacific

towards the end of the week, sentiment improved marginally across the

market.

Rates for Panamaxes firmed last week, outperforming by a lot the rest of

the market. Continent business together with a much improved Pacific re-

sulted in unexpected gains for the segment, which saw its average T/C final-

ly climbing back up above $7,500/day and giving a much needed breather

to owners.

Supras and Handies were also down this past week, with a further drop in

fresh inquiries in the Pacific. Things in the Atlantic weren’t any better ei-

ther, while too many ballasters in the USG region meant no stellar perfor-

mance of rates there either.

Sale & Purchase

In the Handysize sector, we had the sale of the “REGINA OLDEN-

DORFF” (37,504dwt-blt 06, Japan), which went for a price of $ 16.7m.

Oct-14 Sep-14 ±% 2014 2013 2012

180k 48.0 48.0 0.0% 48.5 35.8 34.6

76K 22.0 23.0 -4.3% 25.5 21.3 22.7

56k 22.7 23.6 -4.1% 25.4 21.5 23.0

30K 18.5 19.0 -2.6% 20.0 18.2 18.2Handysize

Capesize

Panamax

Supramax

Indicative Market Values ($ Million) - Bulk Carriers

Vessel 5 yrs old

Indicative Period Charters

- 3 to 7 mos - 'CHRIS GR' 2005 55,715dwt

- Gibraltar spot - $ 14,500/day - Clipper

- 2 to 4 mos - 'Ranger' 2012 82,172dwt

- Dalian 19/20 Oct - $ 12,500/day - ABT

Dry Market

Index $/day Index $/day Index Index

BDI 944 963 -19 1,090 1,205

BCI 1,362 $9,516 1,544 $10,277 -182 -7.4% 1,909 2,106

BPI 966 $7,735 865 $6,924 101 11.7% 935 1,186

BSI 923 $9,651 970 $10,147 -47 -4.9% 942 983

BHSI 501 $7,320 516 $7,547 -15 -3.0% 533 562

10/10/2014

Baltic IndicesWeek 42

17/10/2014Week 41

Point

Diff

2014 2013$/day

±%

170K 6mnt TC 14,250 14,750 -3.4% -500 23,513 17,625

170K 1yr TC 14,250 14,750 -3.4% -500 23,635 15,959

170K 3yr TC 14,000 14,625 -4.3% -625 22,751 16,599

76K 6mnt TC 10,750 10,750 0.0% 0 12,757 12,224

76K 1yr TC 10,750 10,750 0.0% 0 12,680 10,300

76K 3yr TC 12,625 12,625 0.0% 0 13,546 10,317

55K 6mnt TC 11,000 11,500 -4.3% -500 12,337 11,565

55K 1yr TC 10,500 10,750 -2.3% -250 11,974 10,234

55K 3yr TC 10,250 10,500 -2.4% -250 11,980 10,482

30K 6mnt TC 8,500 8,500 0.0% 0 9,402 8,244

30K 1yr TC 8,500 8,750 -2.9% -250 9,500 8,309

30K 3yr TC 8,750 9,500 -7.9% -750 9,801 8,926Han

dys

ize

Period

2013

Pan

amax

Sup

ram

ax

Week

42

Week

41

Cap

esi

ze

2014$/day ±% Diff

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© Intermodal Research 21/10/2014 4

Size Name Dwt Built Yard M/E SS due Hull Price Buyers Comments

SUEZOTTOMAN

NOBILITY152,622 2005

HYUNDAI HEAVY

INDS - U, S. KoreaMAN-B&W DH $ 45.0m undisclosed

AFRANORTHERN

PEARL105,535 1999

SUMITOMO HI

YOKOSUKA, JapanSulzer Oct-14 DH $ 12.0m

S. Korean

(Sinokor)

MR BRIGHT PACIFIC 48,694 2004 IWAGI, Japan MAN-B&W Dec-14 DH $ 13.5m Greek

MR HIGH NEFELI 46,135 2003STX SHIPBUILDING -

JIN, S. KoreaMAN-B&W Mar-18 DH $ 15.8m Greek

PROD/

CHEMFAIRCHEM COLT 19,953 2005

USUKI SHIPYARD,

JapanMAN-B&W Feb-15 DH $ 21.0m

US based

(Principal

Mari time)

StSt tanks

PROD/

CHEMFRANZ SCHULTE 12,900 2006

SAMHO

SHIPBUILDING - T,

S. Korea

MAN-B&W Sep-16 DH high $10.0m S. Korean

SMALL EQUINOX 9,431 1993

SLOB SCHEEPSWERF

PAPEN,

Netherlands

MaK DH $ 4.0m undisclosed

SMALL ENERGIZER 8,491 1995 MALTA SB, Malta Normo Dec-15 DH $ 4.0m Russ ian

SMALL CANSU D 5,809 2005ISTANBUL

SHIPYARD, TurkeyMaK Jun-15 DH $ 6.5m Turkish

Tankers

Secondhand Sales

Name Dwt Built Yard M/E SS due Gear Price Buyers Comments

NAIKAI INNOSHIMA

77237,860 2015

NAIKAI ZOSEN -

INNOSHI, MAN-B&W

4 X 30t

CRANES$ 26.0m undisclosed

MPP/General Cargo

Size Name Dwt Built Yard M/E SS due Gear Price Buyers Comments

HANDYREGINA

OLDENDORFF37,504 2006

SAIKI HEAVY

INDUSTRIES,

Japan

Mitsubishi Mar-164 X 36t

CRANES$ 16.7m undisclosed

Bulk Carriers

Size Name Teu Built Yard M/E SS due Gear Price Buyers Comments

SUB

PMAXAS CATALANIA 2,824 2006

HYUNDAI MIPO

DOCKYARD, S.

Korea

MAN-B&W undisclosed Greek

FEEDER CAPE FALSTER 1,200 2005HEGEMANN

BERNE, GermanyMAN-B&W $ 4.0m

Singaporean

(Continental

Investment)

FEEDER CAPE SANTIAGO 1,129 2001

GDANSKA

STOCZNIA GRUPA,

Poland

B&W Oct-162 X 43t

CRANES$ 3.7m Chinese

Containers

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© Intermodal Research 21/10/2014 5

Things on the newbuilding front were quieter compared to the week prior, with tanker orders slowing down, while those for dry bulkers remained of thin volume. The majority of orders reported most recently were of non conventional vessels, like offshore, or gas carriers, which still gather a good share of the investment interest out there. Prices have stalled across the board for now, while everyone’s attention is mainly on the dry bulker side, where further discounts are currently expected from yards that will have to find new ways to sell the newbuilding story. The performance of the freight market will certainly be critical of how hard selling that story will be. It seems that even if freights improve soon, owners will not rush back to the yards like they did in 2013 but will rather wait to see solid market performance for a longer period before they do.

In terms of recently rumored deals, Itochu Corp has placed an order for 2 MR product tankers (35,000dwt) at Kitanihon, in Japan, with delivery set for 2017.

Newbuilding Market

20

60

100

140

180

mil

lion

$

Tankers Newbuilding Prices (m$)

VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR1 MR

Week

42

Week

41±% 2014 2013 2012

Capesize 180k 55.0 55.0 0.0% 56.1 49 47

Kamsarmax 82k 30.5 30.5 0.0% 30.4 27 28

Panamax 77k 29.0 29.0 0.0% 29.2 26 27

Ultramax 63k 27.5 27.5 0.0% 27 25 25

Handysize 38k 23.0 23.0 0.0% 23 21 22

VLCC 300k 98.0 98.0 0.0% 98.8 91 96

Suezmax 160k 66.0 66.0 0.0% 65 56 58

Aframax 115k 54.0 54.0 0.0% 54 48 50

LR1 75k 46.5 46.5 0.0% 45.8 41 42

MR 50k 37.0 37.0 0.0% 36.9 34 34

186.0 186.0 0.0% 185.8 185 186

79.0 79.0 0.0% 78.2 71 71

68.5 68.5 0.0% 66.6 63 62

45.5 45.5 0.0% 44.0 41 44

Vessel

Indicative Newbuilding Prices (million$)

Bu

lke

rsTa

nke

rs

LNG 160k cbm

LGC LPG 80k cbm

MGC LPG 55k cbm

SGC LPG 25k cbm

Gas

10

30

50

70

90

110

mil

lion

$

Bulk Carriers Newbuilding Prices (m$)

Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize

Units Type Yard Delivery Buyer Price Comments

2 Tanker 35,000 dwt Kitanihon, Japan 2017 Japanese (Itochu Corp.) undisclosed product tankers

3 Bulker 16,500 dwt Honda Zosen, Japan 2015-2016 Taiwanese (Franbo Lines) $ 20.0m

6+2 Container 1,700 teu Zhejiang Ouhua, China 2016-2017HK based (Mandarin

Shipping)undisclosed

3 Gas 174,000 cbm Samsung, S. Korea 2018 undisclosed $ 206.5m eco vessels

10 Offshore 5,400 dwt Kleven Verft, Norway 2016-2018 Maersk Supply undisclosed AHTS

4 Offshore 2,300 dwt Wuchang S. B. 2016 COSL undisclosed AHTS

Newbuilding Orders Size

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© Intermodal Research 21/10/2014 6

As last week progressed, breakers in the Indian sub-Continent were drawn deeper into doubt regarding the fundamentals of the market. From one hand cheap Chinese scrap steel has been pushing prices down and on the other most buyers found themselves committed to excessive levels, following the aggressive demo buying of the past month. Although prices have overall remained stable, there is a sense that we might soon see discounts bigger than $15/ldt. The further weakening of the Indian Rupee has also added to this environment of insecurity, while at the same time activity has dropped considerably, with most of the sales that are now reported, involving deals agreed or concluded earlier on. The Diwali holidays are also expected to weigh down on activity as well, while at the same time breakers in Bangla-desh and Pakistan appear to be also losing their mood for now, as sentiment is starting to soften across the demo market. Needless to add that prices in China remained soft, while further declines are also expected before the end of the year. Average prices this week for wet tonnage were at around 300-500$/ldt and dry units received about 280-475$/ldt.

The highest price amongst recently reported deals, was that paid by Pakistani breakers for the VLCC Tanker ‘NEW PROGRESS’ (297,237dwt-38,572ldt-blt 94), which received a firm price of $ 514/ldt.

Demolition Market

Week

42

Week

41±% 2013 2012 2011

Bangladesh 490 490 0.0% 422 440 523

India 485 485 0.0% 426 445 511

Pakistan 500 500 0.0% 423 444 504

China 300 300 0.0% 365 384 451

Bangladesh 470 470 0.0% 402 414 498

India 455 455 0.0% 405 419 484

Pakistan 475 475 0.0% 401 416 477

China 280 280 0.0% 350 365 432

Dry

Indicative Demolition Prices ($/ldt)

Markets

We

t

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

$/l

dt

Wet Demolition Prices

Bangladesh India Pakistan China

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

$/l

dt

Dry Demolition Prices

Bangladesh India Pakistan China

Name Size Ldt Built Yard Type $/ldt Breakers Comments

NEW PROGRESS 297,237 38,572 1994NKK CORP - TSU,

JapanTANKER $ 514/Ldt Pakistani

ASTON 94,225 16,111 1995FINCANTIERI

ANCONA, ItalyTANKER $ 512/Ldt Pakistani

DISCOVERY 2,859 12,295 1972

RHEINSTAHL

NORDSEEWERK,

Germany

PAX $ 406/Ldt undisclosed as-is Falmouth

PACIFIC SUCCESS 38,412 8,860 1989HYUNDAI HEAVY

INDS - U, S. KoreaBULKER $ 470/Ldt undisclosed as-is Singapore

AMIRA LAYAN 37,554 8,008 1984 IHI - AIOI, Japan BULKER $ 475/Ldt Pakistani

Demolition Sales

Page 7: Weekly Market Report - Maritime Connectormaritime-connector.com/documents/Intermodal Weekly...growth is now projected to drop in Q1 & Q2 2015 and rise again in Q3 of 2015, as the macroeconomic

The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without mak-ing guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

Compiled by Intermodal Research & Valuations Department | [email protected]

Analysts: Mr. George Lazaridis | [email protected]

Ms. Eva Tzima | [email protected]

Finance News

“Rodgers set on Wall Street

Paddy Rodgers has confirmed tanker giant Euronav retains an appetite for a stock listing in the US when global market conditions become more favourable. Euronav delayed the planned New York initial public offering (IPO) on Wednesday amid volatility in the stock markets that has seen shipping shares suffer across the board in recent weeks. “Fundamentally, we want a New York listing,” Rodgers, the owner's chief executive, told TradeWinds today. “We are not saying we are not listing, we are just saying we are not listing right now.”

Rodgers notes that the red arrows on the global ex-changes are in contrast with the “green” seen in the tanker market, if investors logged onto the Tankers International App.“The main thing is that we had a difficult couple of weeks in the equity and bond mar-kets. It was a very difficult couple of weeks (for the capital markets) with more volatility than we have seen in a few years,” he said. “It’s in contrast to what we see on the shipping side for a number of macro-economic reasons.” Rodgers explains it would have been difficult for would-be Euronav investors to get into a buying mindset at a time when everybody in the capital markets is selling. He is unwilling to say when Euronav will take its fleet of more than 50 tank-ers to Wall Street, but adds the official documents already in place will be kept updated so the company can move when the time is right. “It’s an exciting project and one we just have to get all out ducks in a row,” Rodgers said.

As TradeWinds has reported analysts believe the delay to Euronav’s listing is “no drama” given the turbulence in the stock markets of late” (Trade Winds)

Commodities & Ship Finance

17-Oct-14 16-Oct-14 15-Oct-14 14-Oct-14 13-Oct-14W-O-W

Change %

10year US Bond 2.200 2.150 2.090 2.210 2.290 -4.8%

S&P 500 1,886.76 1,862.76 1,862.49 1,877.70 1,874.74 -1.0%

Nasdaq 4,258.44 4,217.39 4,215.32 4,227.17 4,213.66 -0.4%

Dow Jones 16,380.41 16,117.24 16,141.74 16,315.19 16,321.07 -1.0%

FTSE 100 6,310.30 6,195.90 6,211.60 6,392.70 6,366.20 -0.5%

FTSE All-Share UK 3,369.59 3,308.67 3,314.63 3,403.04 3,387.01 -0.3%

CAC40 4,033.18 3,918.62 3,939.72 4,088.25 4,078.70 -1.0%

Xetra Dax 8,850.27 8,582.90 8,571.95 8,825.21 8,812.43 0.4%

Nikkei 14,532.51 14,738.38 15,073.52 14,936.51 15,300.55 -5.0%

Hang Seng 23,023.21 22,900.94 23,140.05 23,047.97 23,143.38 -0.3%

DJ US Maritime 342.66 334.10 325.36 327.04 327.69 1.2%

$ / € 1.28 1.28 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.2%

$ / ₤ 1.61 1.60 1.59 1.59 1.61 0.3%

¥ / $ 106.56 106.06 106.67 107.03 107.22 -1.2%

$ / NoK 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 -0.1%

Yuan / $ 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13 -0.1%

Won / $ 1,062.73 1,064.00 1,061.23 1,067.08 1,066.17 -1.1%

$ INDEX 91.10 91.00 91.20 91.50 91.40 -0.7%

Market Data

Cu

rre

nci

es

Sto

ck E

xch

ange

Dat

a

1,190

1,200

1,210

1,220

1,230

1,240

1,250

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

goldoil

Basic Commodities Weekly Summary

Oil WTI $ Oil Brent $ Gold $

17-Oct-14 10-Oct-14W-O-W

Change %

Rotterdam 719.0 735.5 -2.2%

Houston 874.0 890.5 -1.9%

Singapore 724.0 764.0 -5.2%

Rotterdam 449.0 506.0 -11.3%

Houston 491.0 510.0 -3.7%

Singapore 463.0 523.0 -11.5%

Bunker Prices

MD

O3

80

cst

CompanyStock

ExchangeCurr. 17-Oct-14 10-Oct-14

W-O-W

Change %

AEGEAN MARINE PETROL NTWK NYSE USD 8.10 7.79 4.0%

BALTIC TRADING NYSE USD 3.43 3.18 7.9%

BOX SHIPS INC NYSE USD 1.25 1.18 5.9%

CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS LP NASDAQ USD 8.97 8.33 7.7%

COSTAMARE INC NYSE USD 19.11 20.08 -4.8%

DANAOS CORPORATION NYSE USD 4.56 4.60 -0.9%

DIANA SHIPPING NYSE USD 8.29 8.14 1.8%

DRYSHIPS INC NASDAQ USD 1.69 1.86 -9.1%

EAGLE BULK SHIPPING NASDAQ USD 16.80 79.62 -78.9%

EUROSEAS LTD. NASDAQ USD 1.05 0.99 6.1%

FREESEAS INC NASDAQ USD 0.16 0.13 23.1%

GLOBUS MARITIME LIMITED NASDAQ USD 3.00 3.10 -3.2%

GOLDENPORT HOLDINGS INC LONDON GBX 295.00 329.00 -10.3%

HELLENIC CARRIERS LIMITED LONDON GBX 32.15 37.00 -13.1%

NAVIOS MARITIME ACQUISITIONS NYSE USD 2.59 2.58 0.4%

NAVIOS MARITIME HOLDINGS NYSE USD 5.14 4.92 4.5%

NAVIOS MARITIME PARTNERS LP NYSE USD 16.92 16.22 4.3%

PARAGON SHIPPING INC. NYSE USD 3.05 3.08 -1.0%

SAFE BULKERS INC NYSE USD 5.50 5.48 0.4%

SEANERGY MARITIME HOLDINGS CORP NASDAQ USD 1.47 1.43 2.8%

STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP NASDAQ USD 9.86 9.06 8.8%

STEALTHGAS INC NASDAQ USD 8.25 7.76 6.3%

TSAKOS ENERGY NAVIGATION NYSE USD 6.03 5.32 13.3%

TOP SHIPS INC NASDAQ USD 1.66 1.71 -2.9%

Maritime Stock Data

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© Intermodal Shipbrokers Co

8

21/10/2014

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