Weekly Market Call

http://nodal.ercot.com 1

Weekly Market Call

Weekly Update

November 19, 2010


Antitrust Admonition

ANTITRUST ADMONITION

ERCOT strictly prohibits Market Participants and their employees who are participating in ERCOT activities from using their participation in ERCOT activities as a forum for engaging in practices or communications that violate the antitrust laws. The ERCOT Board has approved guidelines for members of ERCOT Committees, Subcommittees and Working Groups to be reviewed and followed by each Market Participant attending ERCOT meetings. If you have not received a copy of these Guidelines, copies are available at the Client Relations desk. Please remember your ongoing obligation to comply with all applicable laws, including the antitrust laws.

DISCLAIMER

All presentations and materials submitted by Market Participants or any other Entity to ERCOT staff for this meeting are received and posted with the acknowledgement that the information will be considered public in accordance with the ERCOT Websites Content Management Operating Procedure.


Full Market Trials Agenda

• General Updates and Reminders

• Market Facing Test Update

• Nodal Cutover Update

• Question and Answers / General Discussion

ERCOT asks that Market Participants log into the WebEx session using their company name and then their name. This will allow ERCOT to take roll-

call offline


General Updates / Reminders


Day-to-day operations summary: Planned / Unplanned Outages

• Unplanned Outages• 11/18/2010 9:20 A.M. - 11/18/2010 10:15 A.M.

Extended latencies were noted in delivery of asynchronous bidset notifications via the external web services interface . Root cause analysis in currently underway to address the issue.ERCOT development has identified a configuration change (no code change) for this issue and are working to get that into the Nodal Production environment in the next couple of daysNext update on the Monday Market Call

• Network Model Loads• 11/17/2010 – Completed as scheduled• 11/24/2010 – Last update prior to Go-Live


General Updates and Reminders

• ERCOT has released several new user public displays on www.ercot.com for both Day-Ahead Market and Real-Time prices.

• On the Nodal Real-Time Market page at http://www.ercot.com/mktinfo/rtm/, you’ll find three new displays:

– Real-Time LMPs for Latest SCED Run Display – shows the LMPs at the Resource Nodes, Load Zones, and Trading Hubs with the most recent SCED timestamp

– Real-Time LMPs for Load Zones and Trading Hubs Display – shows just the LMPs at the Load Zones and Trading Hubs with the most recent SCED timestamp

– Real-Time Settlement Point Prices Display – keeps a running tally of the RT SPPs for the Operating Day (yesterday and today are available)

• On the Nodal Day-Ahead Market page at http://www.ercot.com/mktinfo/dam/, you’ll find two new displays:

– DAM Clearing Prices for Capacity Display – MCPCs for yesterday, today, and tomorrow– DAM Settlement Point Prices Display - DAM SPPs for yesterday, today, and tomorrow


General Updates and Reminders

• Monday Market Call for 11/22/2010 will occur as scheduled at 10 AM

• Reminder: Soft Launch continues through next week• Submissions should reflect realistic values• Twice Daily Market Calls begin on 11/23/2010

• 10:30 AM Market Call on 11/24 will cover topics typically covered in the Friday Market calls due to the holiday

• No Market Calls on 11/25 and 11/26• Twice daily Market Calls begin again on Saturday 11/27

• November 24 Hour LFC test GREDP results have been distributed to the QSEs with Resource’s project managers• Note that this is last GREDP that will be sent manually by ERCOT• In the future, MPs can retrieve this information from the MIS

NOVEMBER 2010SUNDAY MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY

1 2 3 4 5 6

7 8 9 10 11 12 13

14 1510:00AM – Market Call

16 173:00PM – TSP Market Call

18 199:00AM –Market Call

20


2310:30AM / 4:30PM – Daily Market Call


25ERCOT HOLIDAY

26ERCOT HOLIDAY



LFC Market Call 11:00AM – 5:00PM


*LFC Market Call


*LFC Market Call

* LFC Market Call – Beginning at 6:00AM on 11/29 and continuing through 11:59 PM on 12/1


DECEMBER 2010SUNDAY MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY

* LFC Market Call – Beginning at 6:00AM on 11/29 and continuing through 11:59 PM on 12/1 1


*LFC Market Call


39:00AM –Market Call

4:30PM – Market Call





8 9 109:00AM –Market Call

11




18


21 22 23ERCOT HOLIDAY

24ERCOT HOLIDAY

25






Day Ahead Market / Reliability Unit Commitment

DAM testing this week


• On average, 70 QSEs participated in DAM over this period


Submission Overview for Monday Nov 15

DAM submission overview• 61 QSEs participated for Op Day 11/16• Energy Bids totaled 9,983 to 15,562 MW per hr• Cleared 8,735 to 13,641 MW energy bids per hr• Cleared 16,119 to 21,053 MW net energy transactions per hr - 59% to 71% of the

forecasted load• Cleared 10,150 to 11,398 PTP bids per hr• Four major Load Zone prices ranged from $23.51 to $42.76


Submission Overview for Tuesday Nov 16




Submission Overview for Wednesday Nov 17




Submission Overview for Thursday Nov 18



Binding Constraints in DAM


OD CONTINGENCY_NAME CONSTR_NAME Max Shadow Price11/16/10 SBBSJEW5 40__A 34.2511/16/10 DLYTZOR5 125T184_1 15.5411/17/10 DSNG_TB5 SNGTHW98_A 4.1611/17/10 SMUESPR8 BOW_FMR1 26.1211/17/10 XNE2D58 NEDIN_138L 14.2411/17/10 SGYRDPW8 GBYLYD70_A 5.0011/18/10 SALAN_S8 AIRLIN_CABANI1_1 11.56

RUC testing this week



Real Time Market / LFC

Real Time Market Update


•11/13 – 11/18 System Lambda at $180 offer cap for 325 intervals•11/13 – 11/18 System Lambda above $180 for 63 intervals; Max penalty price for power balance constraint changed from $3001 to $2251 on 11/16•11/13 – 11/18 Four constraints; only W_TO_N was ever binding for a short period of time on 11/17

•BASE CASE - N_TO_H•BASE CASE - W_TO_N•DSNG_TB5 - SNGTHW98_A•XHHG58 H - HGT_T2H

Real Time Market Update


•SCED intervals not at offer cap or higher typically between $20 and $40

November Full System Reliability and Market Test Results

Generation Resource Energy Deployment Performance (GREDP)

•Measure of how well resources follow dispatch instructions

•Non-Wind, Non-DSR Generators and DSR Portfolios must have a GREDP less than 8% or 8 MW for 85% of the intervals in which GREDP was scored

Percent of Non-WGRs Generation Resources that Met the Protocol

Criteria

Average Percent of Total Generation During the Test by

Fuel Type

All Resources 90.97% NA

Resources Providing Regulation 92.31% NA

Combined Cycle Resources 87.18% 27.30%

Coal and Lignite Resources 94.44% 41.02%

Diesel Resources 100.00% 0.03%

Gas Steam (Non-Reheat Boiler)

Resources100.00% 0.00%

Gas Steam (Reheat Boiler) Resources 85.71% 0.92%

Gas Steam (Supercritical Boiler)

ResourcesNA 0.00%

Hydro Resources 75.00% 0.08%

Nuclear Resources 100.00% 12.21%

Simple Cycle (Greater than 90 MW)


Simple Cycle (Less than 90 MW)


Percent of DSR Portfolios that Met the Protocol Criteria

All DSRs 0.00%

DSRs Providing Regulation NA

Non-WGRs/ Non-DSRs

DSRs


November Full System Reliability and Market Test Results

Generation Resource Energy Deployment Performance (GREDP)

•Measure of how well resources follow dispatch instructions

•Wind Generators must have a GREDP less than 10% or the output must be less than their expected output for 95% of the intervals in which GREDP was scored

•Wind Generators are only scored during curtailment

Percent of WGRs that Met the Protocol Criteria 20.51%

Number of WGRs that had an Interval for which GREDP was scored 39

Average Percent of Total Generation During the Test from WGRs 16.16%

WGRs



Final Full-System Market and Reliability Test(Nov 28 – 30)


Final Full-System Test: Timeline

• Final Full-System Test:

– ERCOT will conduct the final Full-System Testing activities Nov 28 to Dec 1

• Market WebEx call will be open from 11:00 to 17:00 on Nov 28

• Call will re-open at 06:00 on Nov 29

• Call will remain open through 23:59 PM on Dec 1

– From Nov 28 to Dec 1, issues will be fielded by testing support staff and through the Market WebEx

– After Dec 1, issues will be fielded through the issues management process and during the twice daily market calls

– Additional notices will be sent during the week of Nov 22 to confirm the testing window

• Operational Scenarios:

– No Operational scenarios are planned

– Non-Spin and Emergency Base Points will be deployed as needed


Final Full-System Test: Tuning Windows

• If you plan to be ONTEST for unit testing:

– Confirm this intention with ERCOT by 4:00 pm the day prior to the Operating Day wherein ONTEST will be used

– Note: The Request for Unit Testing can be found at http://www.ercot.com/mktrules/guides/procedures/index

To Be ONTEST on this Date: Confirm by 4:00pm on:

Nov 28 Nov 27

Nov 29 Nov 28

Nov 30 Nov 29

Dec 1 Nov 30


Credit Update

Soft Start

• CMM Soft Start – Key Dates– November 15th - Initial CMM reports generated and published – November 16th – First DAM run with credit constraints– November 18th – ERCOT is now using CMM as the system of record for

Zonal credit requirements

• CMM Soft Start - General– Total Potential Exposure (TPE) will use a) Zonal data and b) binding Nodal data.

• No non-binding Nodal data (e.g. practice DAM runs) will be included in the soft start TPE calculations. Collateral included will be actual collateral held.

• Some Zonal data will be included at a summary level only (e.g. AIL) or as adjustments (e.g. payment of Zonal invoices)

– CPs participating in the DAM during the soft start are operating with a “real” ACL– Since the data used in the soft start TPE calculations is binding, ERCOT will use

CMM exposures published beginning November 18th as the bases for binding Zonal collateral requirements as well as Nodal “soft start”

– ERCOT will produce Credit Reports and ACLs on non-business days during soft start

Note: Please validate your Credit Reports this week. Please send questions to [email protected] with a cc: to [email protected] .


Soft Start

As CPs validate Credit Reports, please consider:• Highest ADTE

– Reflects the highest ADTE of the last six (now seven) weeks - will continue to increase weekly to nine weeks

• AIL – Zonal data is included at a summary level only

– “Mismatched” volume is not displayed in the AIL report although imbalance dollars and imbalance volumes are correct (display difference only)

• OUT – Adjusted for TCR revenues – Initially reflected the same adjustment as in most recent Zonal report

– As of Thursday, reflects an estimate of TCR Revenues for November and 90% CRR Revenues for December based on load ratio share from October disbursement

• OIA – Adjusted to reflect payments made on zonal invoices prior to due date (e.g. prepayments)

• CRR invoices and inventory are included in the Credit Reports• CRR invoice payments are being posted as received

– payments received before 12:00 noon will be included for the ACL available for the next day’s DAM (e.g. received by noon Monday will be reflected in Tuesday’s DAM ACL)

– payments received after 12:00 noon will be included for the next day’s Credit Reports and the following day’s ACL (e.g. received after noon Monday will be reflected in Wednesday’s DAM ACL)


Soft Launch

• Treasury

– CRR invoice payments are being posted as received

– CRR invoices are due today (Friday, November 19th)• If an invoice is due and a payment has not been received, ERCOT will send

out an e-mail reminder to– CRRAH authorized rep and back up – CP authorized rep and back up– Credit contact and back up

Note: Please be sure that ERCOT has updated contact information for your company – notices will be an automated process and will use the information in ERCOTs Registration system.


Soft Launch

DAM• DAM credit parameters are set for Soft Start as they will be set for Go Live

– DAM is currently using the 90th percentile for both the “uth” parameter and the RT DA spread (as approved by the BOD on Tuesday)

• DAM historical values used for credit constraints – see next slide

• “e” factors were reset to 1/0/1 on Friday, November 5th

– Will be effective through Soft Start and through operating day -December 14th – Notices went out by two methods

• E-mail to CP authorized rep and back up and CP Credit contact and back up is the primary communication tool

• Written notices went out by regular mail

• CPs desiring “favorable treatment” should complete and return the Request for Change in “e” Factor Treatment Form to [email protected]


Historical prices used for credit exposure in DAM

• Proxy prices to be used for purposes of calculating DAM credit exposure for go-live is covered in Protocol Section 4.4.10(8)

• Implementation:

– All nodal settlement points have been mapped to 2010 congestion management zones • Spreadsheet with the mapping is posted as item 11 at http://www.ercot.com/calendar/2010/11/20101102-

NATF)

– DAM historical settlement point prices• Import hourly average of zonal MCPEs over the last 30 days as a proxy

– SCED historical settlement point prices• Import 110% of zonal MCPEs over the last 30 days as a proxy for Real-Time SPPs (this ensures the 10%

Day-Ahead/Real-Time price difference called out in 4.4.10(8)(b)).

– Ancillary Services historical prices• Import zonal MCPCs as a proxy for nodal MCPCs

– As nodal data is created, the zonal data will roll off, so that 30 days after go-live, all prices used for credit exposure calculations will be nodal prices.

– Imported zonal prices will be trued-up with any price corrections the next business day (timeline of zonal price correction posting).

• Note that this process will be used during the soft start

– On Nov 15, had 15 days of (zonal) data loaded, not full 30 days

– By go-live, as a daily automated process runs to import the zonal data, there will be a full 30 days of historical zonal pricing data available


Go Live

• CMM Go Live – Key Dates– Monday, November 29th - Send ACL for initial binding DAM (afternoon) (TPE

excludes zonal invoice published on November 29th )– Tuesday, November 30th - Initial binding DAM - “e” factors set at 1/0/1

- Credit Report include zonal invoice published on Nov 29 th

– Wednesday, December 1st – “Go Live”

• CMM Go Live – General– See Appendix for detail of how exposure components will be addressed. Updates

are in red.• December 1-3 - “ramp up" for DALE - multiply the UDAA by a factor of five (5) each

day until the first DAM invoice is published.

• December 4-5 (Sat/Sun) - discount DALE by 25% since the first DALE is calculated on a weekend. DALE will be calculated at 100% beginning with Credit Reports posted Monday, December 6, 2010 and ACLs sent Monday evening for Tuesday, December 7, 2010.

• See slide on expected impact of ACP on FMM in FCE calculation

– If a Counter-Party believes that their Zonal ADTE is not representative of their anticipated Nodal RT activity, they can provide an estimate of anticipated RT activity and ERCOT will consider revising their ADTE.



Cutover Update

MP Activities / Impacts• Available Credit Limit is locked for

CRRAHs• CRRAHs can submit disputes

against CRR Auction Invoice via the API or MIS

• CRRAHs can receive postings on MIS

• QSEs can begin DAM Bid submission (15 submission items)

• Market checkpoint calls begin to facilitate issues and readiness

• Daily Market Conference Bridge starts 11/23

Functional AreaSettlementsCreditCongestion Revenue RightsDisputesMarket Management

May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Cut-Over Monthly Outlook – November

Key Cut-Over Activities for November 2010• (11/8/2010 12:00pm) Credit: Collateral Posting Deadline

(Dec Auction)• (11/8/2010 5:00pm) CRR: Credit Lock for Dec CRR

Auction• (11/9/2010 – 11/11/2010) CRR: December CRR Auction

Bid Open/Close• (11/12/2010) CRR: December CRR Auction Executes• (11/15/2010) CRR: December CRR Auction Results

published• (11/16/2010) Settlements: December CRR Auction

Invoice published• (11/16/2010) Disputes: Dispute submitted to ERCOT for

CRR Invoice• (11/19/2010) Credit: Payment Due for December CRR

Auction Invoices• (11/22/2010) Settlements: Payments to CRRAH (Dec

Auction)• (11/24/2010) Market Submission Opens (Remaining Protocol

Go-Live)• (11/24/2010) Model: Network Model Load • (11/29/2010) Credit: ERCOT to Publish ACL for the initial

Day-Ahead Market execution by ERCOT



Questions


Appendix

Approach for establishing the initial exposure in CMM

A Estimated Aggregate Liability (EAL)- "Core" collateral calculation

Highest ADTE - estimate of historical and projected RT activity (See Note)

Soft start - Zonal invoices will be uploaded into CMM for soft start and ADTE calculations will be based on those Zonal invoices. (6 weeks initially; 9 weeks ultimately) Go Live - Zonal invoices will continue to be uploaded and will continue to drive this component while Nodal invoices roll in. Zonal invoices will "roll off" over time.

OUT - outstanding historical activity (invoiced and estimated)

Nodal invoices - Soft start - Non-binding invoices WILL NOT be included. Binding invoices WILL be included. Go Live - Binding invoices WILL be included.

Zonal invoice Soft start - Zonal invoices will be included. Go Live - Zonal invoices will be included.

Payments Soft start and Go Live - Payments of Zonal invoices that include Initial statements will be reflected the day after they are received as an OIA adjustment. Payments of Zonal invoices that include only Final, Resettlement or True Up statements will be posted the day after the due date. Payments of Nodal invoices will be reflected the day after they are received.

TCR Credits Soft Start - through November 30th TCR credits will be reflected as OIA adjustments Go Live - TCR credits will be reflected as OIA adjustments through invoice date December 16th, expected to be paid December 27th.

http://nodal.ercot.com 37http://nodal.ercot.com 37


Key Components For "Soft Start" and Go Live

UDAA - Unbilled Day Ahead (an estimate of DAM activity prior to an invocie being generated).

Soft start - Non-binding DAM activity (including UDAA) WILL NOT be included in TPE. Go Live - Binding DAM activity WILL be included in TPE beginning with the binding DAM run on November 30. UDAA will be updated daily thereafter. NOTE: ERCOT will "ramp up" for DALE using UDAA as it did in the 168-hour test (so DALE won't hit as a "lump sum" with the first invoice). To "ramp up,", ERCOT will multiply the UDAA by a factor of 5 each day (for the first three days - December 1-3) until the first DAM invoice is published.

DALE - projected forward DAM activity Soft start - Non-binding DAM activity WILL NOT be included. Go Live - No DALE calculation December 1-3 since no DAM invoices have been published. DALE will be calculated using the first DAM invoice and will appear on Credit Reports beginning Saturday, December 4, 2010. Note: Since the first DALE impact will occur on a Saturday, ERCOT will discount the DALE by 25% for Saturday and Sunday, December 4 and 5, 2010. DALE will be calculated at 100% beginning with Credit Reports posted Monday, December 6, 2010 and ACLs sent Monday evening for Tuesday, December 7, 2010.

IEL - Initial Estimated Liability Used as needed for CPs not active in the Zonal market or for new sub-QSEs



Key Components For "Soft Start" and Go Live

B Aggregate Incremental Liability (AIL)- Reasonableness test for ADTE for RT activity Soft start - Zonal BES data will be uploaded and

used as a proxy for RT activity. Zonal bilaterals will be used as a proxy for Energy Trades. Only summary level Zonal data is available. Go Live - Summary level Zonal data will be used through operating day November 30, 2010. Nodal data will roll in as it occurs. Zonal data will roll off over time.

C Future Credit Exposure (FCE)- Forward value of CRRs held Soft start - Calculated as per Nodal Protocols -

Go Live - CRR Obligations - Calculated as per Nodal Protocols.

Note: If a Counter-Party believes that their Zonal ADTE is not representative of their anticipated Nodal RT activity, they can provide an estimate of anticipated RT activity and ERCOT will consider revising ADTE appropriately.


Go Live – FMM calculation

Weight Soft Start ACP DAM ACP DAM ACP DAM ACP DAM

W1(ACP) 25% ACP 25% 0% 25% 0% 25% 0% 25% 0%W2(Today) 10% ACP 10% 10% 10% 10%W3(Five Day) 20% ACP 16% 4% 12% 8% 20% 20%W4(Previous Month) 45% ACP 45% 0% 45% 0% 45% 0% 45% Total 100% 100% 86% 14% 82% 18% 70% 30% 25% 75%

Note: Values are established for CRRs in the FMM calculation as follows:

DAM runs and DASPP available for both Source and Sink – uses DASPPs

DAM runs and DASPP is not available for either Source or Sink or both – uses ACP

DAM did not run and RTSPP available for both Source and Sink – uses RTSPPs

DAM did not run and RTSPP not available for either Source or Sink or both – uses ACP

Expected impact of ACP on FMM calculation during Go LiveGo Live (Dec 1) Go Live (Dec 31) Go Live (Jan 1)Go Live (Dec 2)


Cut-Over Update – Go-Live Sequence of Events

Date Action Comments

11/15/2010 – 11/29/2010ERCOT Initiates “Soft Launch” to Nodal Market Go-Live

ERCOT will run non-binding DAM, RUC daily per Nodal protocol timelines. RTM will remain Open Loop, but continue to publish base points and LMPs. Note that credit will be set high on 11/15

11/15/2010Credit posts ACLs and TPEs for non-binding DAM

For Operating Day 11/15 credit will be manually set to high limits

11/16/2010 First Credit Operating Day 11/16 Credit reflects actual limits

11/17/2010Market now able to submit transactions for first Nodal Operating Day (T-14d)

12/01 Operating Day open for Market submissions

11/24/2010QSEs with Resources required to submit 7 days of rolling COPs

12/01 required on 11/23

11/28/2010 2:00 PM – 11/28/2010 3:00 PM

Generation and Frequency Control switched to Nodal systems for final LFC test

QSEs will begin following Nodal base pointsSettlements will continue to be Zonal

11/28/2010 2:00 PM – 11/30/2010 11:59:59 PM

QSEs remain on Nodal Control while settling Zonally during the LFC test

11/29/2010Last Non- Binding DAM for operating day 11/30


Cut-Over Update – Go-Live Sequence of Events (11/30/2010)

Time Action Comments

up to 10:00 Bids and Offer submission QSE submit bids and offers

10:00 Close DAM

10:00 Execute Dam Clearing Process

13:30 Approve DAM results Day Ahead results posted to MIS

13:30-14:30 Submit Post DAM COP updates

14:30 Close for RUC

14:30 Begin Execution of DRUC

16:00 Approve DRUC Results

16:00 Post DRUC Results

18:00 HRUC Begins Hourly Runs


Cut-Over Monthly Outlook – Go-Live Sequence of Events

• Key Zonal Notes for 11/30/2010 and 12/01/2010– QSEs will maintain:

• Balancing Energy Offers through Operating Day 12/01/2010– Submitted on 11/30 for OD 12/1

• Resource Plans through Operating Day 12/01/2010– Maintained continuously through 12/01 to reflect actual Resource Plan

• Zonal Outages effective on Operating Day 12/01/2010– Examples: Actual Start / End, Forced Outages, etc

– On 11/30/2010 ERCOT will run:• Zonal Ancillary Service Market

– Zonal awards will be published• Zonal RPRS

– Run as a study only– Zonal commitments will not be published

– Zonal prices will not be generated for 12/01/2010– No Zonal Submissions or Markets for Operating Day 12/02/2010 or

later– Note that all Zonal systems (ERCOT and MP) must remain in place

until 1/1/2011


Documents

Weekly Market Call