Week 3 - Project Management

7/24/2019 Week 3 - Project Management

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COMMERCE 341OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT

Project Management

Fall 2015

Geof Pond

Project Management


2/50

Introduction being successful at project management

Project Control Measuring Project Value

PERT

CPM

Next class

Agenda


3/50

Activities (time)

Employees

!"contractors

E#!ipment

Money ("!dgets)

Project Management is "y no means trivial$ %t can "ean e&traordinarily stress'!l responsi"ility$

What do PMs manage?

Project Management


4/50

Milestones completion met * +%ME

Project goals met * ,-.GE+

Project delivera"les meet #!ality o"jectives

Project delivera"les meet c!stomer e&pectations

%' one o' t/e corners o' t/e project triangle slipssacrices may "e made in t/e ot/er corners

What do sccess!" #rojects "oo$ "%$e?

Project Management


5/50

,EF3E even g!essing 4/at yo!r re#!ired reso!rcesmig/t "e yo! m!st rst drill do4n t/ro!g/ t/ee&pected activities constit!ting yo!r project$ +/is 4illgive yo! "etter insig/t into t/e projects scope$

E&am#"e'

(o) to get started * Wor$ +rea$do)nStrctre ,W+S-

Project Management

6evel76evel26evel1

3esearc/Program 8

ptimi9ation

+/eoretical

Mat/ematicalProo'

:odedAlgorit/m

Applied6ocationPlanningPro"lem


6/50

Project Contro" * Gantt Chart

Project Management

Activity A

Activity , Activity :

Activity .

ActivityE

;o!rs or.ays

!rvey

:re4.rill :re4

6a" +ec/s

Geologists

E&am#"e

;ori9ontal A&is is a !nit o' +%ME


7/50

Gantt .sed as E/M Too"

Project Management


8/50


Project Management

%s t/e project progressing on8sc/ed!le= Green is completion ,l!e is remaining 4or> ? completion 4ritten "elo4 t/e activity as @Act!al ? e&pected completion 4ritten "eside it


9/50

Act%0%t A 100? o' B125C B125C

Act%0%t + 100? o' B1D5C B1D5C

Act%0%t C 5? o' B150C B112$5

CAct%0%t 2 10? o' B0C BC

Tota" 3556

7


Project Management

Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled(,:)

,:


10/50

Gantt sed as E/M Too"

Project Management

Act%0%t

A

100? o' B125C B125C

Act%0%t

+

5? o' B1D5C B10H$5

CAct%0%t

C

50? o' B150C B5C

Act%0%t

2

0? o' B0C B7C

Tota" 344687

udgeted Cost of Work Performed (,:P)

,:P


11/50

Schedule Variance:

BCWPI BCWSJ B7DD$5C I B7HH$5C J 943687:

%nterpretation

A negative sc/ed!le variance s!ggests t/at t/eproject /asnt progressed as 'ar as e&pected "y t/e

assessment date$ ' co!rse t/is ass!mes t/at '!ndsare e&pended !ni'ormly across t/e d!ration o' t/eactivity (4/ic/ is seldom t/e case)$

E/M 9 :PIs

Project Management


12/50

Schedule Performance Index

BCWPBCWSJ 7DD$57HH$5 J ;65s m!st startnis/ on timein order to avoid delays in project completion=

7) ;o4 m!c/ slac> is availa"le 'or eac/ o' t/eremaining activities=

Cr%t%ca" Path Method ,CPM-

Project Management


17/50

ell !se nodes to develop a net4or> precedencemodel$ *odes loo> li>e


Project Management

4/ere

EF stands 'or t/e Earliest tart+imeNEF stands 'or t/e Earliest Finis/

+imeN

!S stands 'or t/e 6atest tart


18/50

%magine t/e 'ollo4ing project


Project Management


19/50

tep 1 .ra4 o!t net4or> model according to t/eprecedence dictated "y @immediate predecessors


Project Management


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Project Management


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Project Management


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Project Management


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Project Management


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Project Management


25/50


Project Management

tep 2 :omplete e&/a!stive @for"ardpasses t/ro!g/o!tt/e net4or>

0 O 1 J1

0 O 7 J7

E+ O Activity +ime JEF+


26/50


Project Management


27/50


Project Management


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Project Management


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Project Management


30/50


Project Management

% % " h h d , -


31/50


Project Management

tep 7 :omplete e&/a!stive @#ack"ardpassest/ro!g/o!t t/e net4or>

C % % " P h M h d ,CPM-


32/50


Project Management

C %t% " P th M th d ,CPM-


33/50


Project Management



34/50


Project Management



35/50


Project Management

tep D %denti'y activities along t/e critical $ath(t/ose 4it/no slac>)

lac> is t/e amo!nt o' time "et4een t/e E+ and 6+ (or "et4eent/e EF+ and 6F+)For Activity @; slac> is D I 0 J D days$ %n ot/er 4ords i' Activity ;is delayed "y as m!c/ as D days t/ere is no impact on t/e projectcompletion time$



36/50

-se'!l in estimating project completion timeand @mapping o!t project net4or> model$Also !se'!l in identi'ying @critical acti%itiesand availa"le slac> 'or all ot/er activities$

Major 4ea>ness is t/e ass!mption o'$erfect kno"ledge$

4e can address t/is "y !sing ProgramEval!ation and 3evie4 +ec/ni#!e (PE3+)


Project Management

Program E0a"at%on and Re0%e) Techn%>e


37/50

o! 4ill /ave t/e @l!&!ry o' only losing yo!r jo" andper/aps millions o' dollars 'or yo!r employer i' yo!

scre4 !p a project$

%magine

6ate 1K50s :old ar is cran>ing !p

,ot/ oviet and - n!clear programs are at '!llspeed

+o gain a competitive advantage - *avy em"ar>son a program to develop a s!"marine8la!nc/a"le

"allistic missile (4/ic/ /ad never "een done"e'ore)

+/o!sands o' contractors involved$

o!ve got 'o!r years to get t/e jo" done starting

4it/ "asic researc/ Q design$

Program E0a"at%on and Re0%e) Techn%>e,PERT-

Project Management


38/50



39/50

% /ave directed prompt action to step !p o!r Polariss!"marine program$ -sing !no"ligated s/ip8"!ilding

'!nds no4 (to let contracts originally sc/ed!led 'ort/e ne&t scal year) 4ill "!ild and place on station88atleast nine mont/s earlier t/an planned8s!"stantiallymore !nits o' a cr!cial deterrent88a Reet t/at 4ill

never attac> rst "!t possess s!Scient po4ers o'retaliation concealed "eneat/ t/e seas todisco!rage any aggressor 'rom la!nc/ing an attac>!pon o!r sec!rity$

To/n F$ Cennedy

tate o' t/e -nion Address

70 Tan!ary 1K1


Project Management

*o Press!re

3ig/t=



40/50

SEP & .evelop optimistic most pro"a"le andpessimistic activity times 'or eac/ tas>:


Project Management



41/50

SEP ' "tain t/e ex$ected activity time$

(ota #ene E&pected +ime UMost Pro"a"le +ime

/y= ,eca!se activity times 4ill "e modelled !singt/e ,eta .istri"!tion (4/ic/ is not symmetric)


Project Management



42/50

SEP ' "tain t/e ex$ected activity time$


Project Management

4/ere

is t/e e&pected activity timeN is t/e most pessimistic activity timeN

is t/e most pro"a"le activity timeN and

is t/e most optimistic activity time

E&am#"e



43/50

SEP ) "tain t/e %ariancearo!nd eac/ e&pectedactivity time$


Project Management

4/ere

is t/e varianceN is t/e most pessimistic activity timeNand

is t/e most optimistic activity time

E&am#"e



44/50

:omplete ta"le

og a a a o a d e e ec >e,PERT-

Project Management

Act%0%t Eected,-

/ar%ance ,-

A 1$0H 0$0

+ 1$1 0$11

C 1$D2 0$7D2 1$H7 0$11

E 5$1 2$25

2$1 0$25

G 2 0$11

( 7$77 0$25

I 1 0$07

@ 1$0H 0$07

Act%0%tA 1$0H 0$0

+ 1$1 0$11

C 1$D2 0$7D

2 1$H7 0$11E 5$1 2$25

2$1 0$25

G 2 0$11

( 7$77 0$25I 1 0$07

@ 1$0H 0$07



45/50

SEP * -se t/e :PM to develop a project net4or>model "!t !se t/e ex$ected acti%it+ times identied

in t/e previo!s 'e4 slides

g >,PERT-

Project Management

Project :ompletion +ime is 10$5H 4ee>s 'or t/is e&ample$ :riticalPat/ is A8:8.8E8T



46/50

SEP , Add t/e variance 'or eac/ o' t/e activitiesalong t/e critical pat/

g >,PERT-

Project Management

:ritical Pat/ is A8:8.8E8T

(ota Bene Alt/o!g/ variance is additive standarddeviation is *+

$$$"!t o' co!rse 4e can !se variance () to nd standard

deviation ()



47/50

SEP - "y virt!e o' t/e :6+ t/e completion time o't/e entire project can "e modelled !sing t/e normal

distri#ution(despite /aving !sed t/e #eta distri#ution'or individ!al activity times)

g >,PERT-

Project Management

4/ere

is a test %alueNis t/e e&pected val!eNis t/e standard deviationN andis a 98val!e !sed to nd a

corresponding pro"a"ility 'rom a 98ta"le



48/50

E&am#"e!ppose 4e 4ere interested in >no4ing t/e pro"a"ility o'

completing t/e project !sed in t/e previo!s e&ample (recall t/atJ 10$5H ) in 10 4ee>s$

g >,PERT-

Project Management

*o4 go to t/e 98ta"le to nd t/e corresponding pro"a"ility$



49/50

g >,PERT-

Project Management

+/e pro"a"ility o' completing t/e project in 10 4ee>s (or less) isappro&imately 7?

+e!ore Ne&t C"ass


50/50

3evie4 t/is lect!re and :/apter 5 o' t/e te&t"oo>$

+ry t/e 'ollo4ing pro"lems :/apter 5 W7 W5 W10

6et me >no4 i' yo! /ave any #!estions$

3ead :/apters Q o' t/e te&t"oo> in preparation'or t/e ne&t class$

+e!ore Ne&t C"ass

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Week 3 - Project Management