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Word count: 2,852

Sarah WellsAP Statistics

Period 712/01/14

Is there an association between being part of an organized religion and being raised in a religious home?

Is there an association between frequency of visiting one’s place of worship and being raised in a religious home?

Is there an association between dedication to religion and being raised in a religious home?

Though I cannot prove causation, I hypothesize that being raised in a religious home will make a student more likely to identify as part of an organized religion, make the student more likely to frequently visit a place of worship, and make a student more likely to be dedicated to

said religion.

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“Everyone needs and everyone has a God. That’s why we’re so religious,” said Anglican

Archbishop Rowan Williams during a debate against atheist Richard Wilkins (Moore). Every

single person has beliefs. Whether a person chooses to believe in an organized belief system or

chooses to believe in no organized belief system, every single person has beliefs. Furthermore,

though the idea of religion might seem daunting or exclusive, it can be argued that religion is not

limited to established sets of beliefs. Rather, religion can be found in whatever dominates a

person’s thoughts, actions, desires, and praise. According to this definition, no person is actually

irreligious. For many, a belief system is slowly discovered—gradually wrestled with and

developed. However, for most, religious seeds are first planted in the home by their parents. A

child first witnesses the world through religion or through its absence as determined by his or her

parents. In order to investigate the idea of parental religious influence further, I have chosen to

conduct an observational study. Though I am unable to prove causation, I hypothesize that being

raised in a religious home will make a student more likely to identify as being part of an

organized religion, make the student more likely to frequently visit a given place of worship, and

make a student more likely to be dedicated to their religious lifestyle.

I chose to conduct an observational study among the population of the Academy for

Global Studies (AGS). AGS generally includes students at Austin High School seeking an

education with cultural awareness and travel opportunities woven in. I chose this population in

order to have better control over sampling, and because AGS students are likely to possess some

interest for cultural topics such as religion. In order to conduct this observational study within the

community of AGS, I conducted a survey in which I began by asking, “Are you part of an

organized religion?” Below this answer, I defined organized religion as well as used my

definition of what it means to be a part of one. If the student responds “Yes,” he or she was

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prompted to answer the following questions: “Did your parent(s)/guardian(s) raise you in this

religion?” The answer choices were “Yes,” and “No.” “How frequently do you visit your place

of worship?” The answer choices were “Never,” “Few times a year,” “Monthly,” “Weekly,” and

“More than once a week.” And “Would you consider converting to a different religion?” The

answer choices were “Yes,” and “No.” I am considering frequency of visiting a place of worship

to be an indicator of consistency in religion, and I am considering the possibility of converting to

be an indicator of dedication to a religion. However, I have noted that visiting a place of worship

frequently does not imply passion for religion as some teenagers might only attend under

obligation. If the student initially responds “No,” he or she was prompted to answer the question

“Were you raised in a religious home?” The answer choices were “Yes,” and “No.” I did not

produce multiple surveys with answers in different orders because the questions were pulling

factual responses, not responses based upon the students’ choice. Through this survey, I intended

to be able to determine whether there is dependence between being raised in a religious home

and: being part of an organized religion, dedication to religion, and frequency of visiting a place

of worship. I chose to determine independence or dependence in order to draw conclusions

regarding the higher or lower probabilities of one factor given another. In this study, I have

decided that a difference between the probability and the conditional probability will be

considered statistically significant if the difference is greater than .2 or 20%.

To collect data for this study, I chose to use cluster sampling. After discussing with the

AGS counselor, I gained confirmation that all AGS students in each grade are required to take

AGS English. Therefore, I decided to randomly select one AGS English class and perform a

census within it. By choosing a subject that all AGS students of all grades are required to take, I

was able to guarantee that each AGS student had an equal chance of being selected. With this

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strategy, I have a sample of 31 students—a sample that is more than 30 subjects and no more

than 10% of the AGS population of approximately 390. After numbering each AGS English

class period, I used a random digit table to select 2 digit numbers from 01 to 18. I excluded any

repeats, 00, and 19 to 99. I stopped after I had selected 1 class period. I randomly selected Mr.

Miller Pd. 7. After doing this and after gaining permission from Mr. Miller as well as my own 7th

period teacher, I conducted the census. Once in Mr. Miller’s class, I first I introduced myself and

explained my participation in a statistics study. I reduced any wording bias by refraining from

explaining the topic of my study as to not hint at my hypothesis. I only told the class to answer

the questions as honestly as possible. I assured them that their answers would be anonymous. As

the students filled out the survey, a sheet circulated through the classroom on which they signed

their names. No students were absent on this day. After gathering this data, I organized it into

various contingency tables, calculated simple and conditional probabilities, and created bar

charts for a visual representation. These will be displayed further in the report.

The three principles of experimental design are control, replication, and randomization.

My experiment was controlled because the subjects were given no previous explanation of the

purpose of the survey before they received it. I ensured this by revealing nothing to the sample

regarding my hypothesis or questions. I also implemented control by wording questions in a way

that produced solid factual answers. These questions require no personal decision by the

students, only recalling of one’s religious life. Lastly, I reduced interpretation bias by, on the

survey, defining organized religion as “an institutional religion in which belief systems and

rituals are formally established” (“organized religion”). In addition, I also personally defined

what it means to be part of one. My experiment included replication because I gave the same

survey to 31 different students. My experiment possessed randomization through my random

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cluster selection process. I avoided any convenience bias by choosing Mr. Miller’s 7th period

English class randomly and ensuring that each member of the population (AGS) had an equal

chance of being selected for my sample.

For this experiment, I originally intended to use the entire student body of Austin High as

my population from which to randomly select clusters. However, I found it challenging to

maintain this population and ensure that each student had an equal chance of being selected.

Specifically, students have free periods and it is not guaranteed that each student is taking a class

in each subject due to dual credit options. My solution to this issue was narrowing my population

of interest to the Academy of Global Studies in which all students they are certain subjects that

each student is required to take. Another challenge of mine was deciding, as a statistician, what

difference to consider statistically significant. A difference of .2 is definitely significant,

however I was originally unsure whether a difference of .1 could be considered significant as

well. Ultimately, I decided to draw the line at .2 in order to establish the strongest conclusions

possible. Lastly, many of the students that I sampled signed their names practically illegibly, and

it was difficult to decipher them for citation purposes. Because I wanted to keep the survey

anonymous and neglected to ask Mr. Miller for a class roster, the signature sheet was my only

means of knowing the student’s names.

Is there an association between being part of an organized religion and being raised in a

religious home? My data revealed that, among the population of AGS, the probability of a

student being part of an organized religion is .7097, while the probability of not being part of an

organized religion is .2903. The probability of an AGS student being raised in a religious home

is .7097, while the probability of an AGS student not being raised in a religious home is .2903.

There was one student who was part of an organized religion and was not raised in an organized

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religion, and there was one student who was not part of an organized religion who was raised in

an organized religion. The probability of being part of an organized religion given being raised in

a religious home is .9545, while the probability of not being part of an organized religion given

being raised in an religious home is .0455. Because the probability of being part of an organized

religion and the probability of being part of an organized religion given the student was raised in

a religious home are not equal, being part of an organized religion and being raised in a religious

home are not independent. There is a statistically significant difference between the probability

of being a part of an organized religion and the probability of being a part of an organized

religion given being raised in a religious home. As the bar chart below illustrates, all but 2

students identify with the same religious way in which they were raised. Below are the

contingency table, bar chart, and calculated probabilities representing these statements.

Yes Organized

Religion

No Organized

Religion

Total

Yes Raised in a

Religious Home

21 1 22

Not Raised in a

Religious Home

1 8 9

Total 22 9 31

Part of OR

Not Part of OR

0 5 10 15 20 25

Organized Religion (OR) and Re-ligious Homes

Not Raised in Religious HomeColumn1

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P (part of an organized religion¿=2231

=.7097

P (not part of an organized religion¿931

=.2903

P (religious home)¿2231

= .7097

P (not religious home)¿9

31=.2903

P (part of an organized religion | religious home)¿2122

= .9545

P (part of an organized religion | not religious home)¿ .0455

P (not part of an organized religion | religious home)¿122

= .0455

P (not part of an organized religion | not religious home)¿2122

= .9545

Is there an association between frequency of visiting one’s place of worship and being

raised in a religious home? My data also revealed that, among those who identify as part of an

organized religion, frequency of visiting a place of worship and being raised in a religious home

are not independent. The probability of visiting a place of worship weekly or more than weekly

is .4545. The probability of visiting a place of worship weekly or more than weekly given being

raised in a religious home is .4762. Because these probabilities are not equal, the two are not

independent of each other. However, the difference between the two is .0217, and therefore is

not statistically significant. Additionally, the bar chart below does in fact reveal that the only

religiously identifying student not also raised in a religious home answered that he or she

“never” visits his or her place of religion. Below are the contingency table, bar chart, and

calculated probabilities representing these statements.

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Yes Organized

Religion

Yes Raised in a

Religious Home

Not Raised in a

Religious Home

Total

Never 2 1 3

Few times a year 4 0 4

Monthly 5 0 5

Weekly 8 0 8

More than once a week 2 0 2

Total 21 1 22

Never

Monthly

More than once a week

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Frequency of Visiting Place of Worship and Whether Raised in a

Religious HomeNot Raised in Religious HomeColumn1

P (weekly or more)¿1022

=.4545

P (weekly or more | religious home)¿1021

=.4762

Is there an association between dedication to religion and being raised in a religious

home? My data showed that considering converting and being raised in a religious home are also

independent. The probability of a student considering converting to a different religion is .2273

while the probability of a student considering converting give being raised in a religious home

is .2381. Furthermore, the probability of a student not considering converting to a different

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religion is .7727, while the probability of a student not considering converting to a different

religion given being raised in a religious home is .7619. Because the probabilities and

conditional probabilities are not equal, the two are dependent on each other. However, the

difference between the two is .0108 and therefore is not statistically significant. Below are the

contingency table, bar chart, and calculated probabilities representing these statements.

Yes Organized

religion

Yes Raised in a

Religious Home

Not Raised in a

Religious Home

Total

Yes Consider

Converting

5 0 5

No Consider

Converting

16 1 17

Total 21 1 22

Yes Convert

No Convert

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Consideration of Converting to a Different Religion and Whether

Raised in Religious HomeNot Religious HomeColumn1

P (converting)¿522

= .2273

P (not converting)¿1−.2273=.7727

P (converting | religious home)¿521

= .2381

P (not converting | religious home)¿1621

=.7619

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One confounding variable that would have affected answers regarding frequency of

visiting a place of worship is the fact that my random selection of all freshman are most likely

not yet at the driving age. Therefore, my subjects might not have total control of travel to places

of worship. For example, a student might visit his/her parents’ place of worship every week not

out of personal desire but out of his/her parents’ wishes. Similarly, a student might desire to visit

his place of worship more often but is restricted without access to a vehicle. Another

confounding variable that I did not measure is the specific participation of a student at a place of

worship. For example, a student going weekly for 3 hours at a time is put in the same group as

someone who attends weekly but for only 30 minutes at a time. In this survey, I took into

consideration frequency but not length or depth of visits. This variable could possibly have

affected a student’s response as to whether he/she would consider converting to a different

religion. A weekly 3 hour participant is likely to have different views than a weekly 30 minute

participant, however my survey did not distinguish this. Lastly, there is the possibility that some

students did not take the survey seriously and circled the first answers they saw or circled the

ones they thought would be interesting rather than truthful. However, this is something that, as a

statistician, I am unable to gauge and unable to prevent.

Although my observational study is unable to prove causation between two variables, I

have concluded that the probability of being a part of an organized religion increases

significantly when a student is raised in a religious home, however the probabilities of frequently

visiting a place of worship or considering converting to a different religion are not statistically

different with a condition of being raised in a religious home. As my data reveals, there is a

statistically significant difference between the probability of being a part of an organized religion

and the probability of being part of an organized religion given the student was raised in a

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religious home. There is a 95% chance that if a student is raised in a religious home, he/she will

identify with that religion, and there is a 95% chance that if a student is not raised in a religious

home, he/she will not identify with any religion. Condition of religious home aside, the

probability of being a part of an organized religion is approximately 70% and the probability of

not being part of an organized religion is approximately 30%. As previously stated, because this

was an experimental study, I cannot conclude that being raised in a religious home causes a

student to be a part of an organized religion. However, a student who is raised in a religious

home is more likely to be a part of an organized religion and a student who is not raised in a

religious home is more likely to not be a part of an organized religion. Secondly, because there is

not a statistically significant difference in the probability of visiting a place of worship weekly or

more and the probability of visiting a place of worship weekly or more given being raised in a

religious home, I conclude that being raised in a religious home does not increase the probability

that said student will frequently visit his/her place of worship. This could suggest two things—

either the student identifies with the religion of his/her parents but feels no personal passion for

it, or his/her parents do not place a large focus on visiting their place of worship. Lastly, because

there is not a statistically significant difference in the probability of considering conversion and

the probability of considering conversion given being raised in a religious home, I conclude that

being raised in a religious home does not increase the probability of a student being dedicated to

his/her religion. This reveals that although a parent has influence regarding religious

identification, dedication and fervency is a personal matter that is ultimately up to the student.

While parents play a role in instilling certain religious beliefs, parents do not have complete

dominion over their child’s specific religious decisions. If I were to conduct this study again, the

main aspect I would alter would be to expand my population to include students from the entire

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student body of Austin High as to increase my sample size as well as its diversity. However, in

closing, I am confident that my observational study was well-designed, well-conducted, and

produced successful statistical results.

Works Cited

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Montemayor, Maya. Personal interview. 1 Dec 2014.

Moore, Johnnie. “Atheism is a religion, too.” FOX News. FOX News, 17 March 2013. Web. 6

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"organized religion." Merriam-Webster.com. Merriam-Webster, 2014.

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Appendix A

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Appendix B

Are you part of an organized religion? organized religion is defined as an institutional religion in which belief systems and rituals are formally established—examples are, but are not limited to: Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism, JudaismBeing “part of” a religion means personally identifying with the beliefs, traditions, and practices.

YES NO

If you answered YES to the first question

Did your parent(s)/guardian(s) raise you in this religion?

YES NO

How frequently do you visit your place of worship?

Never

Few times a year

Monthly

Weekly

More than once a week

Would you consider converting to another religion?

YES NO

If you answered NO to the first question

Were you raised in a religious home?

YES NO

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Appendix C

Raw Data:Are you part of an organized religion?

Were you raised in a religious home?

IF YES ORGANIZED RELIGION— Did your parents/guardian raise you in this organized religion?

IF NO ORGANIZED RELIGION—Were you raised in a religious home?

IF YES ORGANIZED RELIGION—How frequently do you visit your place of worship?Never 3Few times a year 4Monthly 5Weekly 8More than once a week 2Total 22

IF YES ORGANIZED RELIGION—Would you consider converting to a different religion?

Y 22N 9Total 31

Y 22N 9Total 31

Y 21N 1Total 22

Y 1N 8Total 9

Y 5N 17Total 22