homepages.se.eduhomepages.se.edu/cvonbergen/files/2015/03/Tyranny_of… · Web viewThe word now used is leadership—particularly the ... chairman of the sports marketing giant

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Running head: POSITIVE THINKING

The Tyranny of Positive Thinking

C. W. Von Bergen

Southeastern Oklahoma State University

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Abstract

Western societies often emphasize upbeat beliefs, cheerfulness, optimism, hope, confidence, and

other manifestations of positive thinking in its aphorisms, songs, religion, books and magazines,

medicine, psychology, and business. This has led to the often unchallenged idea that optimism

and positive thinking are good for everyone and are to be promoted. While a positive outlook

can be a powerful, constructive force, at excess levels possitivity generates a number of

disadvantages for individuals and organizations. Eleven problematic areas are presented and

discussed leading to a conclusion that a more balanced view of positivity is warranted. Across

many situations one may need to be positive—but not too positive.

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The Tyranny of Positive Thinking

“We are going to a different world,” said Candide, “and I expect it is the one where all goes well . . . . Everythingwill turn out right. It is undoubtedly the new world thatis the best of all possible universes.”

—Voltaire, 1947/1759, p. 48

For millennia Western philosophers have endorsed the merits of positive thinking and the

pursuit of happiness. In Nicomachean Ethics, Aristotle indicated that happiness is the highest

good humans can achieve. While these arguments have been questioned by later thinkers, the

virtues of being positive and the pursuit of happiness have been encouraged and are central

features of most Western civilization for ages (Judge & Ilies, 2004). As seen above, Voltaire’s

Candide (1947/1759) displayed a persistent optimism about the future. Regardless of the

adversity or disaster that confronted him, Candide continued to believe that the future would be

bright.

This value continues today as philosophers, theologians, counseling psychologists, sports

psychologists, and authors of self-help books have placed heavy emphasis on looking on the

bright side as a means of achieving personal growth, satisfaction, productivity, good health,

prosperity, and success (Ehrenreich, 2009; Fineman, 2006; Judge, Erez, & Bono, 1998).

Nevertheless, there are various phenomena that suggest that positive thinking is more like the

drug paracetamol—the right amount will help you, but too much is a very bad idea indeed. I first

discuss positive thinking in America—also known as optimism, confidence, hope, happiness,

and positive illusions—and its popularity and power and follow this by a review of key areas

where excess levels of positive thinking are problematic. Finally, I summarize these findings

and provide a conclusion.

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On Being Positive

Individuals high in positive thinking exhibit confidence in a way that is both broad and

diffuse, and it encourages them to approach challenges with enthusiasm and persistence (Carver

& Scheier, 2003). Positivity has motivational value and is generally perceived as good and

helpful. I now briefly discuss how positive thinking is exhibited and valued in our aphorisms

and music, in our churches and businesses, in our media and child development practices, and in

our military and politics. I also note how positive thinking has entered medicine and academia.

Positive attitudes have been expressed in American aphorisms and music. Consider the

following maxims: “Cheer up, things could be worse;” “Smile, look on the bright side;” and

“Stop complaining, it’s not that bad.” In our music we have been told to “Ac-cent-tchu-ate the

Positive” (Mercer & Arlen, 1945), to “Put on a Happy Face (Adams & Strouse, 1960), and to

limit our anxiety by being joyful—“Don’t Worry, Be Happy” (McFerrin, 1988).

Evangelical mega-churches preach the good news that one has only to want something to

get it, because God wants to “prosper” people. The new positive theology offers promises of

wealth, success, and health in this life now, or at least on the horizon (Ehrenreich, 2009). The

medical profession prescribes positive thinking for its reputed health benefits and cancer is often

reframed not as a health crisis but as an “opportunity of a lifetime,” or “a makeover opportunity.”

Scheier and Carver (1993) found that optimists reported fewer physical symptoms, better health

habits, and better coping strategies. According to Peterson, Seligman, Yurko, Martin, and

Friedman (1998), people who espoused an optimistic perspective in childhood outlived their

more negatively oriented colleagues by an average of almost two years.

Academia has made room for the new disciplines of “positive psychology” (Seligman &

Pawelski, 2003), “positive organizational behavior,” (Luthans & Youssef, 2007), and

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“appreciative inquiry” (Cooperrider & Sekerka, 2003). Harvard even offers new courses in

happiness and regularly draws almost 900 students. The peer-reviewed Journal of Happiness

Studies (Quality of Life Research, n. d.) is devoted to the scientific understanding of subjective

well-being and addresses the conceptualization, measurement, prevalence, evaluation,

explanation, imagination, and study of happiness.

Many children are raised to see the glass as half full, recognize that every cloud has a

silver lining, to make lemonade out of lemons, to smile and look on the bright side, to keep their

chins up, and to have a nice day. Americans expect optimism in its military and political leaders.

Politicians compete to be seen as the sunniest candidate. For example, President Ronald Reagan

promoted the idea that America is special and that Americans were God’s chosen people,

destined to prosper, much to the envy of everyone else in the world and President George W.

Bush thought of himself as the optimist-in-chief, as the cheerleader—which he once was in

college—and did not want to hear bad news (Kurtzman, 2003). President Franklin Roosevelt

indicated that “The only limit to our realization of tomorrow will be our doubts of today. Let us

move forward with strong and active faith” (Luntz, 2007, p. 220). General Dwight Eisenhower

said that “Pessimism never won any battle” (Luntz, 2007, p. 221) while General Colin Powell

said that “Perpetual optimism is a force multiplier” (Harari, 2003, p. 16).

In U.S. media, magazines and television offer feature stories illustrating how thinking

positively can turn poverty into riches. Consider also the long tradition in the U.S. of “self-help”

books promising people victory and accomplishment if they only think positively (Starker,

1989). From Eleanor Porter’s Pollyanna (“The glad game,” 1913) to Watty Piper’s The Little

Engine That Could (“I think I can, I think I can ...,” 1930) to Dale Carnegie’s How to Win

Friends and Influence People (“believe that you will succeed, and you will,” 1937) to Norman

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Vincent Peale’s The Power of Positive Thinking (“the man [sic] who assumes success tends

already to have success,” 1952) to Spencer Johnson’s Who Moved My Cheese? (“accept layoffs

with a positive attitude,” 1998) to Rhonda Byrne’s The Secret (“think positive thoughts because

you become or attract what you think about the most,” 2006) people are surrounded by those

who promote an optimistic outlook. The essential theme is that the universe is really on our side

and that we can obtain whatever we wish for. If we do not receive the things we want it means

that we did not have enough faith and the desire was not sufficiently focused.

Being positive has taken firm root within the corporate world. Cultural norms about

good business practice stress looking at the sunny side and deemphasizing the problematic.

Sales meetings now resemble political rallies or revivals and Seligman (1991) reported that

optimistic salespersons had higher performance and lower attrition than their lesser optimistic

cohort at a life insurance company. Likewise, Luthans and his collaborators (Luthans, Avolio,

Avey, & Norman, 2007; Luthans & Youssef, 2007) found that their concept of psychological

capital, key components of which include confidence and optimism, was positively related to

performance outcomes in the workplace such as lower employee absenteeism, less employee

cynicism and intentions to quit, and higher job satisfaction, commitment, and organizational

citizenship behaviors. CEOs are coming to think of themselves as motivators geared toward

persuading employees to work harder for less pay and no job security. Historically, the science

of management was that of a rational enterprise, where spreadsheets were developed, logic trees

created, and decisions made based on careful analysis. All that was swept aside for a new notion

of what management is about. The word now used is leadership—particularly the charismatic

and transformational leadership models (Yukl, 2002)—where senior executives are primarily

charged with inspiring the workforce.

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Psychological research has found that slightly positive emotions appear to be the ambient

state for most people at most times. In a wide variety of activities, people’s beliefs are distorted

by overconfidence (Russo & Schoemaker, 1992) which occurs when individuals’ certainty that

their predictions are correct exceed the accuracy of those predictions (Klayman, Soil, Gonzalez-

Vallerjo, & Barlas, 1999). For instance, Russo and Schoemaker (1992) found that of the 2000-

plus individuals to whom they gave a ten-question quiz using 90 percent confidence intervals,

less than 1 percent were not overconfident.

These mildly distorted perceptions have been referred to as positive illusions (Taylor &

Brown, 1988) and include inflated positive self-conceptions, an exaggerated perception of

personal control, and an overly optimistic assessment of the future (Taylor & Armor, 1996).

These illusions have been found to be related to good psychological adjustment, are adaptive,

and provide a sense of agency (Taylor & Brown, 1988). Thus, by perceiving themselves and

their world in a positive light, people feel empowered as causal agents in effecting changes in

their environment (Sigmon & Snyder, 1993). In this regard, social psychologists have concluded

that most people have an “illusion of control” about themselves (Abramson & Alloy, 1980;

Greenwald, 1980). In summary, faith in the power of positive thinking has become so ingrained

in American society that positive seems to not only be normal but also normative—the way a

person should be. It seems that Panglossian puffery is alive and thriving in America today.

Problems with Positivity: When Illusions Become Delusions

While modest positive illusions provide a sense of agency and are adaptive, having

overly optimistic illusions is no more desirable than having none at all. Researchers have noted

that the illusions are helpful when they are in the slightly-to-moderately positive range, but they

decrease in adaptiveness as they move into more extreme positive ranges (Baumeister, 1989;

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McAllister, Baker, Mannes, Stewart, & Sutherland, 2002). Baumeister (1989) refers to this as

the “optimal margin of illusion” (p. 176) and concluded that “Optimal health, adjustment,

happiness, and performance may arise from overestimating oneself slightly. Departures from

this optimal margin, particularly in the positive direction, are dangerous” (p. 188).

At high levels of optimism individuals become overly confident, filled with hubris and

narcissistic thinking leading to difficulties coping with the facts of reality. Very high levels of

positive affect may constitute too much of a good thing. Below are several areas where holding

unbridled positive expectancies can be problematic (see Table 1).

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Insert Table 1 about here

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Goal setting

Goal setting theory is one of the most effective motivational approaches supported by an

impressive base of research (Robbins & Judge, 2009). One application of goal setting theory

widely used in many modern day organizations and meeting with considerable success is known

as management by objectives (MBO), in which the organization’s overall goals are translated

into specific objectives for each level in the firm (Robbins & Judge, 2009). When MBO does

not work, one culprit is unrealistic performance expectations. This is consistent with goal setting

theory which suggests that performance plateaus and then drops as the difficulty of a goal goes

from challenging to impossible (Wright, Hollenbeck, Wolf, & McMahan, 1995).

Highly optimistic individuals not only tend to set unrealistically high goals, but are also

overconfident that their goals will be attained. They focus primarily on positive information,

which supports their belief that success is likely, a disposition that interferes with effective

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performance. As a result, they tend to attain only average levels of performance in many

contexts (Judge & Ilies, 2004). This wishful thinking can distract people from making concrete

plans about how to attain goals (Oettingen, 1996). Taken together, evidence suggests that across

many different tasks, performance increases with optimism, but only up to a point. Further

increments actually reduce performance (Brown & Marshall, 2001). Relatively small positive

distortions of reality enable one to look at the facts in a more optimistic way. Giving a situation

a positive spin often allows one to function more effectively. Although illusions involve a

degree of self-deception, they often provide individuals a sense of mastery fueling a sense of

well-being and efficacy.

Striving for success without the resources to achieve it takes its toll on individuals who

face limitations on possibilities regardless of how hard they work. Such people will channel

their efforts to what can be attained regardless of how hard they work. If not, people will

channel their efforts into unattainable goals and become exhausted, ill, and demoralized

(Peterson, 2000). Pursuing a dream of enduring greatness may divert attention from the pressing

need to win immediate battles. Unrelenting optimism precludes the caution, sobriety, and

conservation of resources that accompany goal attainment.

Decision making

It has been said that “no problem in judgment and decision making is more prevalent and

more potentially catastrophic than overconfidence” (Plous, 1993, p. 217). This error is so

prevalent that it is called the overconfidence bias. For example, when individuals are given

factual questions and asked to judge the probability that their answers are correct, they tend to be

far too optimistic. Studies have found that when people say they are 65 to 70 percent confident

that they are right, they are actually correct only about 50 percent of the time (Lichtenstein &

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Fischhoff, 1977) and when they say they are 100 percent sure, they tend to be 70 to 85 percent

correct (Fischhoff, Slovic, & Lichtenstein, 1977). One outrageous example was reported by

Robbins and Judge (2009) who indicated that 90 percent of U.S. adults said they expected to go

to heaven while another poll noted that only 86 percent thought Mother Theresa was in heaven!

The overconfidence bias goes by another name—the “above average effect.” It is the

tendency of the average person to believe he or she is above average, a result that defies the logic

of descriptive statistics (e.g., Alicke, Klotz, Breitenbecher, Yurak, & Vredenburg, 1995).

Larwood and Whittaker (1977) found that corporate executives (and management students) are

particularly prone to this form of self-serving bias.

Excessive optimism is a contributing factor to a well documented decision-making error

—entrapment. Brockner (1992) describes this bias as escalation of commitment to a failing

course of action. Because many executives are overly optimistic about their strategies and

reluctant to face reality, they are hesitant to back away and look for new alternatives. This was

supported in a study by Audia, Locke, and Smith (2000) who noted that managers who had

experienced success in the past, and were therefore more confident, were found to be more likely

to stick to an original course of action when the environment they were operating in had

changed. Such decision biases cost much time, money, and energy which could better be spent

on other alternatives.

Similarly, Finkelstein conducted a six-year examination of 51 companies and published

his results in Why Smart Executives Fail (2003a). A key finding was that executives of failed

companies clung to an inaccurate view of reality that consistently underestimated obstacles.

Finkelstein (2003b) noted that: “… blind adherence to “positive thinking” became a dominant

corporate value that was often at the foundation of organizational failure” (pp. 2-3). The

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executives’ view of the future undermined the realities of the present. When reality surfaced, it

was often whitewashed for reasons of face-saving and hubris.

Overconfidence usually leads to wrong decisions, shrinking profit margins, firings, or

bankruptcies (Russo & Schoemaker, 1989). One study of Fortune 500 CEOs, for example,

showed that many are overconfident and their perceived infallibility often caused them to make

bad decisions (Malmendier & Tate, 2005a). Consider the comment of Teddy Forstmann,

chairman of the sports marketing giant IMG, who indicated “I know God gave me an unusual

brain. I can’t deny that. I have a God-given talent for seeing potential” (Sandomir, 2007, p.

C10). Research suggests that high levels of optimism have significant detrimental effects on

judgment and decision making (Åstebro, Jeffrey, & Adomdza, 2007). These findings show

highly optimistic individuals holding unrealistic expectations often discount negative

information, and mentally reconstruct experiences so as to avoid such information (Geers &

Lassiter, 2002). In contrast, moderately optimistic individuals possess a more balanced view

(Spencer & Norem, 1996). They are more sensitive to negative information and less likely to

gloss over discrepancies (Spirrison & Gordy, 1993), less easily persuaded by positive

information (Geers, Handley, & McLarney, 2003), less likely to have an attentional bias in favor

of positive stimuli (Segerstrom, 2001), and hold more realistic expectations when engaging in

high risk situations (Gibson & Sanbonmatsu, 2004). When considering these findings it seems

likely that highly optimistic persons may be prone to make less than optimal strategic decisions.

One decision making error that has received wide publicity is groupthink. In his book

Groupthink, Janis (1972) reviewed well-known fiascoes like the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor

and Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba and noted that many of these poor decisions could be traced to

overconfidence characteristic of many organizations. Sims (1992) pointed out groupthink

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frequently occurs in the business world and specifically noted Beech-Nut, E. F. Hutton, and

Salomon Brothers. Groupthink is the tendency for members of highly cohesive groups to

minimize conflict and reach consensus without critically testing, analyzing, or evaluating ideas

(Janis, 1972). Small groups often develop shared illusions and related norms that interfere with

critical thinking and reality testing (Sims, 1992). They often develop feelings of invulnerability

creating a sense of invincibility and excessive optimism engendering extreme risk taking that

opens the door to mistakes and misjudgments. Such overconfidence perpetuates costly courses

of action despite the evidence that an endeavor is doomed. Groupthink has also been identified

as contributing to the Challenger and Columbia space shuttle disasters, the failures of companies

such as Enron and Worldcom, some decisions relating to the second Iraq war, and the recent

mortgage crisis.

Leader hubris and narcissism

Another problem in overconfidence is the conviction that one’s performance is quite

adequate though evidence suggests the opposite. There are many documented negative effects of

this “dark side” of excessive confidence (Hayward & Hambrick, 1997; Hiller & Hambrick,

2005). Throughout history, hubris has been cited as a common reason for leadership failure

(e.g., Napoleon, Hitler; Kroll, Toombs, & Wright, 2000). In Greek tragedy hubris was

considered the greatest of sins severely punished by the gods and Proverbs 16:18 tells us that

“Pride comes before destruction, and an arrogant spirit before a fall.” “Self-confidence is rocket

fuel for leaders. Used carefully and ignited under the proper conditions, it propels you and those

around you to remarkable heights. Too little confidence and leaders are perceived as weak. …

Too much self-confidence becomes that most destructive of all leadership attributes, hubris”

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(Petty, 2009), which Kroll et al. (2000) define as an overbearing sense of grandiosity, need for

admiration, and self-absorption—in a word, narcissism.

Narcissism or self-love is essential for self-respect and self-confidence; however, when it

becomes inflated it can be destructive. Overvaluing themselves, and deluded by the self-satisfied

thinking that usually follows, some executives develop condescending views of competitors and

critics. “Denial is the handmaiden of narcissism” (Levinson, 1994, p. 432.) and can drive

executives to create a reality that further reinforces their narcissism (Sankowsky, 1995). Reality

is bent to the service of these disorders, reality testing is compromised, and organizational

learning is interrupted. An additional manifestation of this need for self-enhancement is the

tendency to distort reality by focusing on the positive aspects about themselves and only the

selective memories that support their self-concept (Markus & Wurf, 1987). Warping reality to

suit a narcissist’s views rewrites the facts and often reduces an organization’s performance. If

the vision is challenged managers accuse opponents of being timid, weak, incapable of seeing the

possibilities, thus getting their way (Ronningstam, 2005).

Hubris may pave a perilous path for corporate acquisitions. Roll (1986) has suggested

that takeover attempts result from the erroneous belief that the executive can greatly improve the

target firm’s efficiency. The executive rejects feedback from others and believes that despite the

often overpaid premium for the targeted firm (Hayward & Hambrick, 1997) they will overcome

all obstacles and increase the acquired firm’s value. This is similar to the well documented

blunder known as the winner’s curse (Hendricks, Porter, & Tan, 2008), an occurrence akin to a

Pyrrhic victory in which individuals bid above an item’s (e.g., an acquisition or merger) true

value and thus are “cursed” by acquiring it (Lovallo, Viguerie, Uhianer, & Horn, 2001). By

exaggerating the likely benefits of a project and ignoring the potential pitfalls, executives often

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lead their organizations into initiatives that are doomed to fall well short of projections. This can

be costly in terms of money, jobs, prestige, or even lives (Sanna, Parks, Chang, & Carter, 2005)

when overly optimistic expansions and acquisitions lead to bankruptcy and layoffs (Norem &

Chang, 2002). The winners’ curse is a problem for both clients and providers because it often

leads to inefficient use of scarce resources. Thus, compelling research shows that corporate

acquisitions driven by hubris are financially harmful for acquiring firms (Limmack, 1993;

Malmendier & Tate, 2005b).

Kroll et al. (2000) explain why such actions are common among executives by arguing

that hubris can result in a drive to dominate others and engage in empire building for its own

sake. Similarly, Kets de Vries and Miller (1984) have made the case that CEOs’ belief that they

will achieve positive outcomes can lead to delusions of grandeur. Such excessive optimism can

cause executives to stubbornly persist in behaviors that have worked well for them in the past

and undervalue new or dissenting information. In short, success often breeds failure because

leaders that have tremendous successes begin to lose their competitive edge, believe in their own

invulnerability, and become self-righteous and arrogant (Dess & Picken, 1999; Ranft & O’Neill,

2001). This gives rise to complacency, blindness to threats, and a loss of touch with reality.

Miller (1990) used the myth of Icarus to describe how many high-flying firms get too close to

the sun and subsequently burn up. Managers fail to note the changes around them, continue to

apply previous formulas for success, and ultimately suffer dramatic failures.

Ethical considerations

Leaders exhibiting narcissistic behaviors often set a similar tone for the corporation as a

whole since such behaviors become “contagious” (Valente, 1995) leading to what Levinson

(1994) called organizational narcissism. The narcissistic organizational identity seeks to justify

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and legitimize itself at all costs, with scant reference to market accountability, civic

responsibility, or ethical concerns (Ganesh, 2003). It institutionalizes dominance, control,

entitlement, and exploitation (Gregory, 1999) to reinforce its maladaptive identity. Such

organizations are unable to behave ethically because they lack a moral identity and ethical

behavior is often ignored in service of the narcissist’s beliefs (Duchon & Drake, 2009). In a

sense, the belief that “… we are the best negates the wish to become the best” (Levinson, 1994,

p. 432).

The organization captured by a grandiose fantasy engendered by pathological narcissism

imagines itself something special. Those holding positions of authority in such organizations

believe they are extraordinary and hold a special trust, and cannot be bound by normal

constraints, including the legal and ethical constraints that limit the conduct of other, lesser,

organizations (Levine, 2005). In an interesting study, Schrand and Zechman (2009) showed that

overconfident managers are more likely to commit financial reporting fraud. The study used the

prevalence of the CEO’s photo in the annual report and the difference in compensation with the

second-highest paid official in the company as alternative proxies and showed that overconfident

managers are more likely to commit financial reporting fraud.

Such arrogance was the defining quality of Enron and a central element to the ethical

lapses that eventually destroyed the firm. Arrogance goes hand in hand with corruption as the

corrupt organization arrogates to itself special privileges and exemptions. They believe

themselves above the laws of lesser mortals.

Warren Buffet, one of the world’s most successful investors, cautioned against what he

called “cock-eyed optimism” (2001, p. 5) in earnings forecasts. He warned that lofty predictions

not only spread unwarranted optimism but also corrode CEO behavior:

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“... I have observed many instances in which CEOs engaged in uneconomicoperating maneuvers so that they could meet earnings targets they had announced. Worse still, after exhausting all that operating acrobatics woulddo, they sometimes played a wide variety of accounting games to ‘make thenumbers.’ These accounting shenanigans have a way of snowballing: once acompany moves earnings from one period to another, operating shortfalls thatoccur thereafter require it to engage in further accounting maneuvers that mustbe even more ‘heroic.’ These can turn fudging into fraud” (Buffet, 2001, p. 6).

Support of this view comes from Montgomery’s Auditing, an influential auditing manual

used by some of the Big Four Accounting Firms. It specifically mentions “unduly aggressive

earnings targets” as a factor contributing to the increased risk of fraud (O’Reilly, McDonnel,

Winograd, Gerson, & Jaenicke, 1998, p. 36). This is what happened to computer maker Dell Inc.

in 2010. Dell paid $100 million settlement for civil charges with the Securities and Exchange

Commission because it fraudulently used payments from Intel Corporation to pump up its profits

to meet Wall Street targets thus falsely portraying the means by which the company met or

surpassed earnings targets from 2001 through 2006 (Gordon, 2010).

Schrand and Zechman (2009) describe a path often leading to fraud: an overly optimistic

or overconfident executive believes the firm is experiencing only a bad quarter. The CEO also

believes it is in the best interest of everyone with a vested interest in the organization to cover up

the problem in the short term so that constituents do not misinterpret the current poor

performance as a sign of the future. The executive is convinced that the company will make up

for losses down the road. Rules get stretched in those ‘gray areas’ of earnings management. If

they are wrong and things do not reverse, they have to make up for the prior period. This

requires continuing fraudulent behavior and the executive has to do even more in the current

quarter.

Technological arrogance

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Godkin and Allcorn (2009) suggest leader narcissism is the basis for Arrogant

Organizational Disorder (AOD). When interacting with people exhibiting behaviors of this type,

little is open to being questioned. Healthy conflict between differing perspectives is stifled.

Inquiry, open debate, and the exploration of opinions—the things that make an organization

vitally adaptive—are lost. AOD warps the organization into the service of sustaining grandiose

images of the firm and attacking anyone or any organization that calls into question or threatens

exceptional but unwarranted pride in the organization. The optimism inherent in AOD restricts

anticipation of error, downplays its likelihood, and leads to concealing both its occurrence and

the severity of its effects. This leads to what Landau and Chisholm (1995) call “The Arrogance

of Optimism” (p. 67)—the reluctance to critically examine process, structures, and systems

leading to organizational self-deception because of the belief that all is well and under control.

Such an attitude took a pivotal role in our history:

During the Vietnam War, American soldiers and civilian officialswere spurred on by a myopic ‘can-doism’—the conviction thatthey could achieve anything, anywhere. Their belief in their ownomnipotence was stimulated too, by pressures from their superiorsin Saigon and Washington. To adopt a negative attitude was defeatism,and there were no promotions for defeatism. In contrast, positivereports were rewarded, even if they bore little resemblance to thetruth (New York Times, 1983, p. 1D).

One needs to only read Adams’ (1975) or Sheehan’s (1988) essays on the Vietnamese War to see

how pernicious such an attitude can be when discussing the optimism of body-counts or when

truth speaks to power and the powers command that all is well in the face of calamity.

AOD may evolve into another disorder—technological arrogance—the belief by those in

charge that they are the experts and that they know what they are doing is safe and correct. This

attitude seems to be a contributing factor to disasters because it too often lulls people into

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complacency, ill-fated shortcuts, and problems being ignored (Borenstein, 2010). The Titanic is

an excellent example of excessive confidence. Consider the famous statement that “God

couldn’t sink her” as an example of excessive confidence on the part of many individuals in that

era.

It appears that such arrogance is the illegitimate child of confidence in any area.

Borenstein (2010) observed that “People don’t spend enough time thinking about what could go

wrong” (p. 4D), a sentiment echoed by Landau and Chisholm (1995) who argued for “… the

assignment of high priority to the probability of error, of failure” (p. 73); that is, a sensitivity to

failure in the interest of preservation.

Because people come to blindly rely on the safety of their processes, equipment, and

procedures of the past, they tend to ignore warning signs and presume that things are under

control. Such arrogance comes from previous triumphs not present capabilities. Consider the

Challenger disaster. Richard Feynman, a member of the Rogers’ Commission, a Presidential

Commission charged with investigating the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster, observed that

NASA was a poster child for an organization that was fooling itself (Feynman, 1988). They did

not want to hear the truth, he stated, and they ignored warning after warning, disregarding even

the clearest sign that something was wrong. Their optimism was of such high order that when

erosion of the ‘O’ rings was detected after earlier shuttle launches, a condition that was not

supposed to occur, they dismissed it out of hand. “It’s hubris, arrogance and indolence”

(Borenstein, 2010, p. 4D), says engineering professor Robert Bea who has studied 630 disasters

of all types and consulted with the presidential commission investigating the 2010 BP oil spill

disaster in the Gulf of Mexico.

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To avoid technological arrogance one must avoid excessive confidence and engage in

self-criticism: “To be cocksure that one is an infallible reasoner,” American philosopher, Charles

Peirce, once stated, “is to furnish conclusive evidence that one does not reason at all or that one

reasons very badly, since that deluded state of mind prevents the constant self-criticism which is,

as we should see, the very light of reasoning” (Hartshorne & Weiss, 1934, p. 400).

Planning fallacy

People often underestimate how long it will take to complete a task. The Sidney Opera

House took 16 years to complete instead of the 6 years originally planned (Hall, 1980). The

Channel Tunnel between France and England and the Big Dig in Boston similarly, and famously,

ran far behind schedule. In a multibillion dollar business, such as software design, overly

optimistic estimations of completion time can prove to be extremely expensive and frustrating

due to missed deadlines, cost overruns, and general aggravation (Connolly & Dean, 1997). On a

less spectacular scale, Kidd and Morgan (1969) noted that production managers persistently

predicted better performance for their operations than was later obtained, a result derived from

overly optimistic self-impressions. And most of us are all too familiar with the term paper that

was supposed to be done in a couple of days but took a whole week to complete, or the home-

improvement project that was planned for a weekend but took a month of weekends.

Multiple laboratory studies have also documented systematic overoptimism in people’s

estimates of the time required to complete various tasks (Buehler, Griffin, & MacDonald, 1997;

Buehler, Griffin, & Ross, 1994). For example, participants in one study thought they would

require an average of 34 days to finish their academic theses, whereas, on average, the theses

were completed in 56 days (Buehler et al., 1994). Such planning errors abound, supplying

poignant public illustrations of overly optimistic plans gone awry (Flyvberg, 2008; Hall, 1980).

Tyranny 20


This is such a common occurrence that it has been labeled the “planning fallacy” which is the

tendency to underestimate time to completion despite knowing similar tasks previously took

longer than anticipated (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979).

This error in reasoning occurs during the planning phase. Individuals ignore the very real

chance that things won’t go as anticipated; i.e., individual’s future plans tend to be “best-case

scenarios” (Newby-Clark, Ross, Buehler, Koehler, & Griffin, 2000). They do not consider

alternative possibilities and underrate the likelihood of unforeseen complications and unexpected

obstacles. Indeed, when formulating a plan, these individuals do not like to reflect upon past

experiences (Buehler & Griffin, 2003). Instead, they like to consider positive outcomes and fail

to review previous lessons. In team settings especially, persons of this bent are increasingly

likely to underestimate the time needed to complete a project (Buehler, Messervey, & Griffin,

2005). Presumably, they feel the need to impress others by being perceived as optimistic and

efficient further magnifying the planning fallacy (Pezzo, Pezzo, & Stone, 2006).

Display rules

In some lines of work, it is important that employees express certain kinds of moods and

refrain from expressing others. For example, restaurant servers, flight attendants, and

cheerleaders are expected to operate under “display rules” where they are required to smile and

be enthusiastic (i.e., to put on a happy face) and refrain from expressing anger or hostility, even

in the face of unkind customers (Diefendorff & Richard, 2003). In certain positions, efforts to

keep a situation under control, immersed in emotional settings on a daily basis, and having to

filter the expression of moods can be very stressful leading to emotional dissonance (Middleton,

1989). This is appropriately called emotional labor (George, 2002). For example, Wilk and

Moynihan (2005) found that when call-center employees’ supervisors placed heavy emphasis on

Tyranny 21


employees expressing positive emotions and being pleasant and polite to callers no matter how

rude the callers might be to the employees, the workers were much more likely to feel

emotionally exhausted from their work.

This may account for the “Steven Slater effect.” Mr. Slater, a 38-year old Jet Blue flight

attendant, on August 9, 2010 allegedly grabbed an airplane’s intercom and made an expletive-

laced speech, took a beer from the galley, opened the door and slid down the emergency

evacuation chute, and quit his job as the plane was arriving at the terminal, after an unruly and

rude customer supposedly swore at him, hit him with a piece of carry-on luggage, and refused to

apologize (Gawker, n. d.). Mr. Slater quickly acquired folk hero status because his meltdown

struck a sympathetic chord with others, especially those in jobs that require daily interaction with

a public that, at times, can be difficult to please.

Clearly, organizations have a right to expect friendly behavior from their employees

because it is good for business, yet an enlightened manager might weigh this right against the

possible cost to employees. For example, less resistance to stress has been observed among

those who repress negative emotions (Brown, Tomarken, Orth, Loosen, Kalin, & Davidson,

1996) while Derakshan and Eysenck (1999) noted that those who present an optimistic

assessment of their emotional state by denying their negative emotions, even to themselves, tend

to have significantly stronger physiological reactions than those who are more realistic about

their negative emotions.

Although snapping at customers is probably never a good idea, managers might teach

employees how to express their emotions constructively (e.g., politely telling a customer “no” in

response to an unreasonable request, rather than barking at the customer or knuckling under).

Tyranny 22


Nevertheless, it does suggest that attempts to build a positive workforce may, surprisingly, take a

toll on employees who are asked to conform to happy and cheerful “display rules.”

Denial of risk and peril

Mader and Leibner (2007) suggested that a leader’s supreme confidence is toxic and can

erode organizational commitment of subordinates. Leaders who exude confidence at all times,

they said, tended to minimize problems or discourage them from being discussed (often

unconsciously) for fear that it would reflect poorly on them. Such confidence sends off signals

that the leader is not open to feedback or criticism, and making him or her virtually

unapproachable—particularly when they are wrong and more prone to engage in risky behavior.

In his studies of unrealistic optimism, Weinstein (1984; Weinstein & Klein, 1996)

provided evidence of the harmful effects of optimistic biases in risk perception related to a host

of health hazards. Those who underestimate their risk are routinely less likely to show interest in

taking preventive action such as not wearing seat belts or condoms (Weinstein & Klein, 1996).

Weinstein, Lyons, Sandman, and Cuite (1998) also found that those who optimistically

underestimated the risk of radon in their homes were less likely than others to engage in risk

detection and risk reduction behaviors. In related research, Kunda and Klein (Klein & Kunda,

1992; Kunda, 1990) provided several examples of mechanisms that help maintain a positive self-

view, but likely to have harmful long-term consequences. For instance, smokers may avoid

thinking about or trying to quit (Steele, 1988). Thus, the average individual sees himself or

herself as below average in risk for a variety of maladies, which of course cannot be. This

phenomenon is appropriately lamented because it may lead people to neglect the basics of health

practices.

Tyranny 23


Another consideration is that risk assessments may vary as a function of the product

itself. Simon and Houghton (2003) found in their study of high-technology firms, a correlation

between overconfidence and the degree to which product introductions were pioneering (risky).

Managers introducing pioneering products were more apt to express extreme certainty about

achieving success, yet these products were less likely to achieve success. These types of people

are extremely certain they will achieve success and thus underestimate the dangers. This

suggests that overconfidence plays a significant role in risk taking.

In a related area, sales, Iannarino (2010) indicated that excessive belief in an

organization’s product or service can subvert sales if it leads to arrogance. An exaggerated sense

of importance leads to several problems. Companies believe that there are no substitutes for

their product or service and that clients cannot succeed without them. Companies stop listening

to the needs of its constituents. Ultimately, when they no longer fear the competition, arrogance

dulls their competitiveness. When companies stop listening, they lose their connection to the

changes that are occurring in the marketplace. They lose touch with customer’s needs.

Arrogance causes a loss of the desire to please the customer, to make changes to win deals, and

to innovate. Eventually, losing customers, alienating prospects, and failing to innovate, leaner,

hungrier, aggressive competitors strike and these unsuspecting companies get overtaken. Their

competitors are listening, they are acquiring those discarded clients, and they are innovating.

Arrogance associated with overconfidence and positive thinking can cost an organization its very

existence.

The trait of optimism works well for keeping employees motivated and inspired, but

carried to extreme, it can ruin proper risk assessments, warp reality checks, and lead to self-

deception. While some may argue that an appetite for risk taking is considered a prerequisite for

Tyranny 24


success, Gellerman (1986) argued that “Contrary to popular mythology, managers are not paid to

take risks; they are paid to know which risks are worth taking” (p. 89).

Finally, on a personal level, overconfidence can cost an individual his or her life.

Anecdotal information from two scenarios provides some dramatic insights. Eminent

management scholar, Jim Collins, interviewed Admiral James Stockdale, one of the most highly

decorated officers in the history of the United States Navy, who survived eight years as a

prisoner of war in Vietnam and was tortured over 20 times, for his classic text Good to Great

(2002). In interviewing Stockdale, Collins asked who were those who did not survive their

captivity. “Oh, that’s easy,” Stockdale said, “the optimists. They were the ones who said,

‘We’re going to be out by Christmas.’ And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go.

Then they’d say, ‘We’re going to be out by Easter.’ And Easter would come, and Easter would

go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And they died of a broken

heart” (Collins, 2002, p. 84). Collins (2002) indicated that he carries a mental image of Admiral

Stockdale admonishing the optimists: “We’re not getting out by Christmas; deal with it!” (p. 85).

The events Admiral Stockdale noted in the North Vietnamese prison were similar to

famous psychotherapist and holocaust survivor Viktor Frankl’s experience in Man’s Search for

Meaning (1959). He observed that the death rate in the German concentration camps of World

War II increased close to Christmas because many people who believed they would be spending

it with their family died of disappointment. The point both Collins and Frankl make is that, at

least under certain circumstances, it is maladaptive to have high optimism and that the “power of

positive thinking” can sometimes backfire under stressful life conditions and that one can never

let such beliefs and faith cloud one’s encounter with reality.

Impression management

Tyranny 25


The process by which individuals attempt to influence the impression others form of

them is called impression management (Leary & Kowalski, 1990). While often discussed at the

individual level, it also refers to practices in professional communication and public relations, to

describe the process of forming public image. The idea that perception becomes a viable reality

is fundamental to this process.

Today firms are encouraged generally to present an external “image” (Dutton &

Dukerich, 1991) or “reputation” (Fombrun & Shanley, 1990) that is overly optimistic.

Organizations are expected to be acutely sensitive to outside perceptions and make decisions and

disclose data that create favorable impressions (Caves & Porter, 1977; Fombrun & Zajac, 1987).

A favorable reputation can generate excess returns for a firm by inhibiting the mobility of rivals

(Caves & Porter, 1977; Wilson, 1985), signaling product quality (Milgrom & Roberts, 1986),

attracting better applicants (Stigler, 1962), enhancing the firm’s access to capital markets (Beatty

& Ritter, 1986), and attracting investors (Milgrom & Roberts, 1986).

Organizations are frequently encouraged to make optimistic projections about their

performance, deemphasize the financial risks associated with holding their stock (Fombrun &

Shanley, 1990), predict and plan for higher sales than those possible for the average firm to attain

(Larwood & Whittaker, 1977), rationalize problems and errors (Staw, 1980), deny faults

(Elsbach, 1994), and conceal negative information (Abrahamson & Park, 1994). Biases toward

the faulty prediction of organizational growth can be particularly pernicious to suppliers and

competitors as well. For instance, unrealistic biases about exponential growth, if held by each

competitor in a market, may lead to ruinous attempts at overexpansion and competition for

scarce resources.

Tyranny 26


Impression management does not imply that the impressions people convey are

necessarily false but misrepresentations do occur. Indeed, lying can be thought of as an

“extreme form of impression management that involves the deliberate fostering of a false

impression” (DePaulo, Kashy, Kirkendol, &Wyer, 1996, p. 980). Ambiguous situations, such as

in strategic business dealings in ill-structured environments lacking discrete input variables or

measurement calibration (Roll, 1986), offer particularly attractive opportunities for deception.

Such situations provide relatively little information for challenging a fraudulent claim and thus

reduce the risks associated with misrepresentation and overconfidence (Goffman, 1959). This,

combined with the tendency for executives to preserve a positive self-image, leads to

misrepresentations and rationalizations (Grover, 2005). If honesty can be defined as “the refusal

to fake reality ... to pretend that facts are other than they are, whether to himself or others”

(Smith 2003, p. 518), then individuals can feel some assurance in calling such overconfident and

overoptimistic executives and organizations dishonest.

Entrepreneurial activities

Optimism is vital in overcoming the anxiety about starting a new venture, but too much

optimism can keep entrepreneurs from acknowledging that there are risks involved. Some

entrepreneurs bite off more than they can chew. Some launch a business that does not have a

marketable product or service. Some do not raise adequate capital to survive early cash flow

crises (Trevelyan, 2007). Such optimism develops because when entrepreneurs evaluate

situations they magnify their strengths and opportunities and minimize the importance of

weaknesses and threats (Palich & Bagby, 1995). They also tend to treat their assumptions as

facts and do not see uncertainty associated with conclusions stemming from those assumptions

(Simon, Houghton, & Aquino, 2000). Moreover, they perceive less risk because they are more

Tyranny 27


optimistic about those assumptions (Russo & Schoemaker, 1992) which results in less

information search (Zacharakis & Shepherd, 2001). Such excessive optimism has been cited as a

primary reason for the high incidence of failure among start-ups (Gartner, 2005)—45% of newly

created firms fail before their fifth birthday (Shane, 2008).

Indeed, Landier and Thesmar (2009) investigated different levels of optimism in

entrepreneurs and found that overly confident entrepreneurs were more likely to be associated

with failing businesses. Optimistic entrepreneurs did not view their endeavor as a major risk,

because they saw success as inevitable and were not likely to abandon their dreams quickly or

easily. The authors found that entrepreneurs with optimistic views at the start of their business

ventures were still holding high expectations three years later. Even if it became apparent that

their business will not succeed without abandoning some portion of the business plan, adapting

it, or scaling back the business, optimistic entrepreneurs’ strong belief in their venture prevented

them from adapting to early feedback regarding the venture’s success. Such misguided

persistence has undesirable consequences and goal disengagement in some circumstances is

useful and adaptive (Wrosch, Scheier, Carver, & Schulz, 2003).

Landier and Thesmar (2009) indicated that “The enthusiasm of optimistic entrepreneurs

is their strength and their weakness. They work hard, but are reluctant to adapt their initial idea”

(p. 128). When the business does not perform as well as it should, it is crucial to revise the

business plan and adapt the product to customer demand. The optimistic entrepreneur, however,

is unlikely to make these changes. Furthermore, Landier and Thesmar (2009) noted that the

failed businesses which were run by optimistic entrepreneurs tended to be worth less just before

their demise than other start-ups.

Tyranny 28


Entrepreneurs, who are highly involved in start-ups, also tend to be very high in optimism

and confidence (Lovallo & Kahneman, 2003). Ironically, Hmieleski and Baron (2009) found

that entrepreneurs’ dispositional optimism is negatively related to firm performance (revenue and

employment growth). This may be because highly optimistic individuals often hold unrealistic

expectations, suffer from overconfidence, and discount negative information—tendencies that

can seriously interfere with their decision making and judgment (Geers & Lassiter, 2002;

Hmieleski & Baron, 2009). Indeed, Ranft and O’Neill (2001) noted that “The major problems

for boards in successful entrepreneurial firms is [the] need to develop the capability to counter

the entrepreneur’s naturally occurring overconfidence” (p. 129). Additionally, entrepreneurs

may fail to assess potential opportunities carefully, and show a strong preference for heuristic

decision making (Sarmány, 1992), and come to experience high levels of arrogance that

ultimately interfere with their performance of key tasks (e.g., full assessment of potential

opportunities). Such tendencies adversely affect the success of new ventures.

Finally, of particular relevance to entrepreneurs, positive expectations often lead to goal

conflict, because optimists have a tendency to see new opportunities everywhere they look

(Segerstrom & Solberg Nes, 2006). This tendency can generate significant problems for

individuals who cannot easily decide which goals to pursue and therefore may become

overextended as they seek to exploit more opportunities than is realistically feasible. In contrast,

moderate optimists tend to be more realistic in their choice and pursuit of opportunities.

Entrepreneurs must be able to decide which goals they can accomplish in order to maximize the

potential for survival and long-term success (McMullen & Shepherd, 2006).

Incongruence with certain jobs/positions

Tyranny 29


Seligman (1991) made an important observation when he commented on the role of a

CEO, stating “…at the head of the corporation must be a CEO, sage enough and flexible enough

to balance the optimistic vision of the planners against the jeremiads of the CPAs” (p. 112). This

suggests that positive thinking may be associated with individuals in particular positions and that

optimism may not always be the correct approach in selecting applicants. When a risk of

negative consequences exists, a cautious, risk-avoiding approach is appropriate. Pessimism can

keep people from taking risky, optimistic actions in areas where the downside risks are

unacceptable.

Certain jobs that require persistence and initiative and involve frequent frustration,

rejection, and defeat call for an optimistic outlook (Seligman, 1991). Such jobs might include

sales, public relations, and fundraising positions. Positions that are highly competitive have a

tendency for high-burnout or require inventing and creativity are best suited for optimistic

persons. Other occupations, such as financial control and accounting, quality control, design and

safety engineering, and technical writing call for a pessimistic outlook. These positions

generally require individuals with a pronounced sense of reality who know when not to charge

ahead and to err on the side of caution. Indeed, some research suggests that slightly to

moderately depressed persons view the world more accurately than the non-depressed people:

this theory is called depressive realism (Fu, Koutstaal, Poon, & Cleare, 2012; Lewinsohn,

Mischel, Chaplin, & Barton, 1980). Non-depressed people tend to be a little too positive: they

think they have performed better in tasks than they really have and predict better performance

than they actually achieve in the future (Moore & Fresco, 2012). Depressed people, in contrast,

appraise their own performance more accurately. Within an organizational context, for example,

optimistic assumptions can easily wreak havoc (Munger, 2002). Does an organization want an

Tyranny 30


accountant telling it the reality of what it has in its checking account or does it want some starry-

eyed optimist managing the firm’s finances? Do individuals want their financial advisor telling

them that everything is going well or do want to hear the truth about their retirement plan?

Summary and Conclusion

Misplaced positive thinking, optimism, and confidence are ubiquitous in America. The

central claim that “positivity is good and good for you; negativity is bad and bad for you” (Held,

2005, p. 2) and that happiness, or optimism, or positive something—is not only desirable in and

of itself but actually useful, leading to better health, enhanced achievement, and greater success.

However, there are costs to being positive and despite such an endorsement it is important to

note that it is a double-edged sword and that excessive levels are problematic. It is dangerous to

assume the best possible outcome regardless of facts to the contrary.

America’s fascination with all things positive may be specific to Western cultures. At

other times and places great cultures incorporated in their worldviews elements of negative

thinking. Muslims, in general, see grief, sadness, and other dysphoric emotions as concomitants

of religious piety and correlates of the painful consequences of living justly in an unjust world

(Woolfolk, 2002). Sorrow marks the depth of personality and understanding. In Iran, for

example, pathos is central to the Iranian ethos. Sadness for Iranians is associated with maturity

and virtue. A person who expresses happiness too quickly often is considered socially

incompetent (Good, Good, & Moradi, 1985).

Sadness is also valued in Japan. Several centuries ago Motoori Norinaga (1730-1801)

fashioned the concept of mono no aware, sometimes translated as “the persistent sadness that

inheres in all things.” This concept was postulated to define an essential ingredient of Japanese

culture and meant to characterize both a certain aesthetic and a capacity to understand the world

Tyranny 31


directly, immediately, and sympathetically (Masahide, 1984). Mono no aware was thought to

distinguish Japanese culture and mark its superiority. The idea here is that of a sensitivity that

involves being touched or moved by the world. This kind of sensibility is thought to be

inextricably intertwined with a capacity to experience the sadness that emanates from the

transitory nature of things.

Another relevant worldview is that of Buddhism. This philosophic system of self denial

goes beyond the mere karmic tribulations of the unjust or the unfortunate. It begins, famously,

with a declaration of the universal pervasiveness of suffering inherent in the human condition.

The First Noble Truth forming the foundation for the Buddhist Weltanschauung is that

consciousness in interaction with the universe inevitably entails dukkha, often translated as

suffering but also the whole spectrum of negatives: pain, sorrow, unhappiness, dysfunctionality,

frustration, dissatisfaction, angst, and even stress (Woolfolk, 2002). Dukkha is ever-present,

persistent, and unavoidable. From a Buddhist standpoint, it is not a cognitive distortion to see

the world and human existence as dangerous, unsatisfying, painful, and meaningless; rather it is

irrational not to see the world this way. Such negative appraisals are thought to be the beginning

of wisdom (King & Woolfolk, 2001).

Interestingly, a new approach in psychotherapy in the United States, Acceptance and

Commitment Therapy (ACT; Hayes & Smith, 2005), seems to be a movement away from an

emphasis on the positive and toward an acceptance of the negative. Hayes argues that trying to

correct negative thoughts can paradoxically actually intensify them (e.g., telling someone to “not

think about a blue tree,” actually focuses their mind on a blue tree). Rather than trying to resist

anxiety and negativity, individuals are taught to acknowledge that pain and negative thoughts

recur throughout their life and that suffering is a basic component of life. They must then

Tyranny 32


identify and commit to their values in life. Patients who embrace their negative emotions

subsequently find it easier to commit to what they want in life and improve their mental health

(Hayes, Luoma, Bond, Masuda, & Lillis, 2006). The acronym ACT describes the nature of

therapy among the initiated: Accept the effects of life’s hardships, Choose directional values,

and Take action.

The goal of this paper has been to question the wholesale endorsement of all things

positive and the wisdom of always being cheerful. A more balanced approach is required rather

than the “accentuate the positive” mantra advanced by self-help guidebooks and lifestyle gurus

as the key to health, wealth, love, and success. Unfortunately, one size does not fit all. Although

positive thinking is useful for some people some of the time, a purely positive approach to

everyday life (e.g., “Positive anything is better than negative thinking,” attributed to Elbert

Hubbard) appears to backfire for others. This demonstrates that such a cookie-cutter approach to

human nature is unwarranted and unconstructive. A more nuanced approach is needed to

counter the belief that if a little positive thinking is good, then a lot must be better.

Consider the extensive work by Norem and her colleagues on defensive pessimism

(Norem, 2001; Norem & Chang, 2002; Spencer & Norem, 1996) who found that some people are

negative because their pessimism helps to shield them from potential pain—the sting of more

optimistic expectations failing to materialize. Studies have found that people who exhibit

defensive pessimism are actually less stressed when they indulge in this personal routine than

when they are forced to express more optimistic thoughts. For defensive pessimists, worrying

about upcoming challenges is a way of life. It is also a healthy coping strategy that helps them

prepare for adversity. Norem has shown that when deprived of their pessimism, defensive

pessimists’ performance levels drop. For defensive pessimists, being positive has a decidedly

Tyranny 33


negative side (Lilienfeld, 2009)!

Other research by Wood, Perunovic, and Lee (2009) likewise found that positive thinking

and the repetition of stock optimistic phrases such as “I can do it” or “I will succeed” do more

harm than good for some people. Specifically, the researchers concluded that repeating positive

affirmations may benefit certain people, such as individuals with high self-esteem, but backfire

for those with low self-esteem, the people who need them the most. Wood et al. (2009) asked

people with high and low self-esteem to repeat a number of positive self-statements and then

measured the participants’ moods and their feelings about themselves. The low-esteem group

felt worse afterwards compared with a control group while people with high self-esteem on the

other hand felt better after repeating the positive affirmations—but only slightly. The

researchers then asked the participants to list negative and positive thoughts about themselves.

They found, paradoxically, that those with low self-esteem were in a better mood when they

were allowed to have negative thoughts than when they were asked to focus exclusively on

affirmative thoughts.

Wood et al. (2009) suggest that, like overly positive praise, unreasonably positive self-

statements can provoke contradictory thoughts in low self-esteem individuals. When positive

self-statements strongly conflicted with self-perception, the researchers argue, there was not

mere resistance but a reinforcing of existing self-perception. People who view themselves as

unlovable, for example, find that saying statements that are so unbelievable actually strengthens

their own negative view. The positive statements may act as reminders of failure, highlighting

the gulf someone sees between reality and the personal standard set. In short, someone could say

“I’m a lovable person” but may be thinking “I’m actually not” or “I’m not as lovable as I should

be.” Statements that contradict a person’s self-image, no matter how encouraging in intention,

Tyranny 34


are likely to boomerang. In a study by Schwarz, Bless, Strack, Klumpp, Rittenauer-Schatka, and

Simons (1991) individuals asked to remember 12 examples of being assertive rated themselves

as being less assertive than those who just had to remember 6 examples. It seems that because

people had trouble coming up with a dozen examples, they reasoned that they must not be very

assertive after all!

The Wood et al. (2009) findings were also supported by the previous research of Swann,

De La Ronde, and Hixon (1994) that showed that when people got feedback that they believed

was overly positive, actually felt worse, not better. Researchers found that people with negative

self-views were most intimate with marital partners who evaluated them unfavorably! This

tendency for married persons to eschew overly favorable evaluations was not restricted to those

with negative self-views; even people with positive self-views were less intimate with spouses

whose evaluations were extremely favorable. Apparently, when a spouse’s evaluations fall

outside one’s latitude of acceptance (Sherif, Sherif, & Nebergall, 1961), married people

withdraw psychologically from the relationship. It seems that marriage partners prefer that their

spouses recognize their strengths and weaknesses and want their spouses to see them as they see

themselves. In summary, these studies call into question the exaggerated benefits of being

positive encouraged by magazine columnists, self-help books, talk-show hosts, business

associates, selected religious authorities, and friends and neighbors.

Within a business context noted management consultant and clinical psychologist Aubrey

Daniels (2001) observed that “Always be positive is the worst advice you could ever give or

receive” (p. 44). While it sounds good and many people strive to eliminate negativism from their

relationships, if managers are positive at the wrong time, they will get more of the wrong

behavior. Behavior that managers want more of must be rewarded; behavior that managers don’t

Tyranny 35


want should not be followed by a positive consequence. This is because of the behavior

principle that is as close to any law approaching those in the physical sciences, akin to something

like gravity in physics—the Law of Effect (Thorndike, 1913). This rather simple tenet specifies

that responses which produce a satisfying effect in a particular situation become more likely to

occur again in that situation, and responses that produce a discomforting effect become less

likely to occur again in that situation.

Also, within a business context Pfeffer (2001) indicated that companies may be much

better served by having “wise” people as opposed to positive workers. As originally defined by

Plato, wisdom is the attitude of knowing what you know and knowing also what you don’t know.

Overconfidence, in many ways, refers to the failure to know the limits of one’s knowledge

(Zacharakis & Shepherd, 2001). This leads to overestimation of one’s certainty regarding facts.

Most of us possess enough self-confidence to function properly and to even get up in the

morning. Too much, however, has a downside because it can move us to agree with and support

people, plans, or projects which a more realistic evaluation would have rejected. Wisdom

permits organizations to take action in the face of doubt to continue learning even as it is doing.

Finally, we also agree with Peterson (2000) that people should be optimistic when the

future can be changed by positive thinking but not otherwise. Perhaps individuals should adopt

what Seligman (1991) called a flexible or complex optimism, a psychological strategy to be

exercised when appropriate as opposed to a reflex or habit over which they have no control:

You can choose to use optimism when you judge that less depression, or more achievement, or better health is the issue. But you can also choose not to use it, when you judgethat clear sight or owning up is called for. Learning optimismdoes not erode your sense of values or your judgment. Ratherit frees you to ... achieve the goals you set . . . . Optimism’sbenefits are not unbounded. Pessimism has a role to play, both

Tyranny 36


in society at large and in our own lives; we must have the courageto endure pessimism when its perspective is valuable ( Seligman,1991, p. 292).

Tyranny 37


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Table 1. Difficulties resulting from excessive overconfidence and optimism

Goal setting Planning fallacy

Decision making Display rules

Leader hubris and narcissism Denial of risk and peril

Technological arrogance Impression management

Ethical considerations Entrepreneurial activities

Incongruence with certain jobs

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