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Text 01

Japanese GDP figures raise hope of recovery

By Barney Jopson in Tokyo

Published: February 18 2004 2:07 | Last Updated: February 18 2004 19:57

The Japanese economy grew in the past quarter at its fastest rate since the 1980s asset bubble began to subside, raising

hopes that the country is on the way to putting more than a decade of stagnation behind it.

Japan's gross domestic product expanded at an annualised 7 per cent in the three months to December, with fresh data on

Wednesday showing the recovery has broader foundations than export growth. The impressive rate of expansion surpassed US

growth of 4 per cent in the same period, and prompted the Bank of Japan's deputy governor to say this year could mark a

turning point in the battle against deflation, which has dogged the economy since the late 1990s.

In the past six months, positive economic figures have helped build confidence in the possibility of a sustainable recovery.

Corporate bankruptcies fell last year for the first time in four years; unemployment is at a two-and-a-half year low; banks

are bringing their bad loans under control and consumer prices rose late last year for the first time since 1998, albeit for

one-off reasons.

"GDP is very strong," said Masaaki Kanno, economist at JP Morgan Chase in Tokyo, "and reflects the recovery of the global

economy and the strength of exports". Sales of digital cameras to the US and industrial equipment to China are booming, but

equally important is that the effects have begun to filter through to the domestic economy, with companies increasing their

capital spending to upgrade production capacity.

Wednesday's data showed long-awaited signs of a revival in private consumption, with stable wages, rising bonuses and falling

unemployment making consumers more confident. But Mr Kanno said the past quarter's rate of expansion was not sustainable,

adding that Japan's annual trend growth was 3 per cent.

Growth for the 2003 calendar year was 2.7 per cent. Kazumasa Iwata, Bank of Japan deputy governor, said that if GDP continued

to rise at that pace Japan could begin to conquer deflation this year. "It is possible for Japan to overcome deflation if it

can post a growth rate of 2-3 per cent for the second consecutive year," he said. Falling prices have hobbled the economy by

crimping corporate sales and increasing debt burdens.

For the quarter, real GDP grew at a better-than-expected 1.7 per cent, the highest rate since April-June 1990. Nominal

growth, which is not adjusted for price changes, rose 0.7 per cent.

In real terms exports were up 4.2 per cent while business investment jumped 5.1 per cent. Household spending also grew.

But Kiichi Murashima, economist at Nikko Citigroup, warned of factors that could slow the economy. Export momentum had

probably peaked in the past quarter, he said, and planned increases in social security contributions could again deter

consumer spending. In addition, "yen appreciation plus high commodity prices are starting to affect corporate profits and

industrial production."

The strengthening of the yen against the dollar has threatened Japanese exporters, prompting the government to spend ¥

27,000bn ($253bn) on currency intervention since the start of last year.

日本GDP增速创1990年以来新高

巴尼•乔普森(Barney Jopson)东京报道

2004年2月19日 星期四 出版

按年率计算，日本去年第四季度的经济增长达到7%，超过了市场预期，创下1990年以来最快的经济增长率。

周三早上发布的日本国内生产总值数据超过了美国同期4%的增速，表明日本的周期性经济复苏明显加速。

第四季度日本经济增长1.7%，出口和企业投资继续扮演增长主要动力的角色。

“这一数据非常强劲，反映出全球经济的复苏和出口的活力，”摩根大通(JP Morgan Chase)驻东京经济学家菅野雅明(Masaaki Kanno)说。

海外出货量上涨4.2%，这要归功于美国对日本电子产品和汽车、中国对日本机械、元件和钢铁的强大需求。

企业投资指标攀高5.1%，原因在于出口强势提振了企业信心，并鼓励公司升级和扩大产能。

家庭支出指标增长0.8%，但对经济增长贡献仍很有限。

鉴于失业率处于两年半来的最低水平，薪资水平现已稳定。经济学家曾预计说，消费者支出将给经济发展增添额外支持，从而提高经济复苏持

续的机率。

分析师表示，好于预期的GDP数字可能会给日元带来新的压力，令日元进一步走强。日元走强已威胁到日本的出口增长，促使日本当局在外汇市

场大规模干预，以控制其上升势头。

GDP数据公布后约1小时左右，日元开始走软，对美元汇率从105.5降至105.7，引发交易员对日本政府进一步实施干预的猜测。

日本政府预计，截至3月份的一年，经济增长将为2%，现在看来，这一预测目标将能够实现。即使当前季度经济缩水3.4%，这一目标也能够实现

。当然，季度经济缩水3.4%的情况极不可能发生。

译者/李功文

Unit2

Microchip Your Pet

Anyone who has ever owned a pet knows how quickly it can become a cherished member of the family. And anyone who has ever

lost a pet knows the pain of heartbreak.

According to the National Council on Pet Population Study and Policy, only about 16 percent of dogs and 2 percent of cats

find their way back from shelters to their original owners.

While traditional pet identification methods are still recommended, they have limitations. Tags can fade, rust, or get

scratched, making them impossible to read. Collars can come off or, even worse, get caught on something while your pet is

wandering about, causing him physical harm. Fortunately, there is a relatively new technology available that may give pets a

better chance of being reunited with their owners. It is called the microchip identification system, or microchipping.

How Microchipping Works？With microchipping, a veterinarian uses a hypodermic needle to inject a tiny computer chip

containing a unique identification number just under your pet's skin between the shoulder blades. The number on the computer

chip is then entered into a national database along with the corresponding contact information for your pet.

If your lost or stolen pet is found, any animal hospital, shelter, or humane society can use a microchip scanner to read the

unique ID number contained on the chip. The veterinarian or shelter worker then phones the database or accesses it on a

computer and enters the number on the microchip. The database matches the identification number to your name and phone number

so that you can be contacted with the location of your pet.

While the price for microchip implantation can vary, it often falls between $25 and $40. Microchips are convenient, safe, and

reliable.Implantation is simple and routine.The chip can't be lost or damaged, and it lasts for the pet's lifetime.

A microchip won't work unless your pet is properly scanned by a microchip reader. There are some shelters and veterinarians

in the United States that don't have readers yet. Until recently, each brand of microchip could only be read by its own brand

of microchip scanner. Not all shelters and veterinarians have the new universal readers.

Microchip scanning is not 100 percent effective. Microchips should be scanned before being placed in a pet to ensure that the

unique identifying number is readable. ABC

译文: 给宠物带上芯片

养过宠物的人都知道它是如何很快地成为家庭中珍贵的一员，丧失宠物的人也都知道那种酸楚和心痛。

据全国宠物研究和政策委员会的说法，大约仅有16%的狗和2%的猫能从收容所找到回到主人身边的路。

尽管传统的宠物识别方法仍可推荐，但它的作用有限。如标牌会褪色、生锈和有擦痕，常使人不可能辨读。颈圈可能脱落，更糟的是，当宠物

游荡时，颈圈可能会钩到东西，伤害宠物身体。幸运的是，使失散宠物与主人重逢有了一种较新的技术，这就是微芯片识别系统。

微芯片识别系统是如何发挥作用的呢？兽医用皮下注射针，将含有独特识别代码的微小计算机芯片打入宠物肩胛骨之间的皮下，然后将芯片中

的代码和发现宠物后的联系方法一齐输入到全国数据库中，这就构成了寻找宠物的微芯片识别系统。假如发现了你所遗失或被偷的宠物，任何

动物医院、收容所或慈善机构就可使用一种微芯片扫描仪，读出该宠物皮下芯片独特的代码。然后，兽医或收容所人员就可致电数据库或在电

脑上输入此代码，数据库就会告诉他们，拥有此代码宠物主人的姓名和电话，这样，马上就有人告诉你，你的宠物现在何处了。

微芯片植入的价格不等，常在25和40美元之间。微芯片是方便、安全和可靠的。植入方法也是简单易行的。该芯片不会遗失或损坏，它可伴随

宠物终身。

扫描方法不当，该芯片也不会有反应。美国的一些收容所和兽医还没有装备这种芯片识别机。直到最近，每种品牌的微芯片仅能由同一品牌的

微芯片识别机来辨认，但不是所有的收容所和兽医都拥有新型统一的识别机。

微芯片扫描不是百分之百有效的。在埋入宠物皮下之前，应先扫描此微芯片，以确保辨读该片独特的识别代码。 美国广播公司

Unit3

Taiwan scraps investment cap

Taiwan is to scrap its maximum investment limit for foreign investors and ease other restrictions as it tries to attract more

international capital to its securities markets.

The Securities and Futures Commission on Monday said the first phase of the regulatory changes would come into effect "within

days" and bring Taiwan more in line with other international bourses.

Taiwan is Asia's number four equity market with a market capitalisation of US$228.6bn, dominated by technology companies.

Apart from cancelling the US$3bn investment ceiling for qualified foreign institutional investors, the first phase will also

do away with a minimum asset requirement for QFIIs as well as a rule requiring them to invest funds within two years of being

approved as a QFII.

The SFC said the second phase of the overhaul, to be implemented before the end of the year, would remove the current

qualification requirements and divide foreign investors into two groups - institutions and individuals.

"In the future, any offshore foreign investor, having completed the initial application, can freely invest into and move

their funds out of Taiwan's market without any limitations," the securities regulator said.

The news was first announced in a televised speech by Chen Shui-bian, president, early in the session and sent the local

Taiex index 3.3 per cent higher to 5,322.26 - its best closing level in 51 weeks.

As the minimum current asset requirement of US$50m-US$100m is removed, additional foreign investments from smaller investors

could gain access to the market.

Weimin Chang, head of Taiwan research at Merrill Lynch, said this could add 5-10 per cent of incremental liquidity in six

months.

But the implication of Monday's announcement on domestic liquidity could turn out to be even more important, Mr Chang said.

"Basically the government said 'We are trying to push up the stock market' and that is very encouraging for domestic

investors."

A QFII license is required for all foreign commercial banks, insurance companies, fund managers, securities houses and other

investment companies that wish to trade in listed securities, derivatives, fixed income and money market instruments in

Taiwan. As of June 20, QFII investors had pumped in US$40.42bn of funds, up from US$39.46bn at the end of May.

Foreign investors bought a net T$210.14bn (US$6.16bn) worth of shares in the Taiwan market in the January-June period and,

according to analysts, have acted as a major support for the market in the past couple of months.

台湾取消外商投资上限

安内特乔森（Anette Jonsson）台北报道

台湾将取消对外国投资者的最高投资限额，放松其他管制, 以吸引更多国际资本进入台湾证券市场。

证券暨期货管理委员会周一说，监管规则第一阶段的调整将在“数日内”生效，从而使台湾与其他国际证交所进一步接轨。

台湾是亚洲第4大股市，市值2286亿美元，以科技公司为主。

在新规则实施的第一阶段, 除了取消对合格境外机构投资者（QFII）30亿美元的投资上限外，还将废止对他们的最低资产要求，并不再要求他

们在获准成为QFII的两年内进行投资。

证券暨期货管理委员会说，今年年底前进入调整的第二阶段，将取消目前的资格要求，并把外国投资者分为机构和个人两大类。

该证券监管机构说：“今后，任何海外投资者在完成最初申请后，其资金可以自由出入台湾市场，不会有任何限制。”

今日早盘，陈水扁总统在电视讲话中率先宣布了这一消息。受其影响，台湾证交所指数上涨3.3%，收市报5322.26点，创下51星期以来的新高。

随着取消5000万到1亿美元的最低流动资产的要求，更多外国小型投资者的资金将可以进入该市场。

美林证券（Merrill Lynch）的台湾研究部主管张为民（音）说，6个月内，这可使增量流动性提高5-10%。

不过，张先生说，周一宣布的这一计划，可能对国内市场的流动性更为重要。他说：“政府想说的是‘我们正尽力拉高股市’，这是令国内投

资者非常鼓舞。”

所有外国商业银行、保险公司、管理基金、证交所以及其它投资者，如果想在台湾交易上市证券、衍生工具、固定收益和货币市场工具等金融

产品，必须持有QFII许可证。截止6月20日，QFII投资者投入的资金已从5月底的394.6亿美元增加到404.2亿美元。

据分析人士说，从1月到6月，外国投资者在台湾市场共买入净值2101.4亿新台币（合61.6亿美元）的股票，是过去几个月来支撑市场的主要因

素。

unit04

Foreign investors show confidence in US assets

By Jennifer Hughes in London and Christopher Swann in Washington

Published: February 17 2004 15:09 | Last Updated: February 17 2004 19:04

Foreign investors gave a vote of confidence in US assets markets last year by increasing the amount of money they invested in

the US even as the dollar fell, according to capital flow data from the US Treasury.

A monthly report released on Tuesday showed net inflows into US markets totalled $75.7bn (€59bn, £40bn) in December last

year, down from $87.5bn the month before, but still far more than the $27.8bn in October or the $4.3bn in September.

Over the whole year, net inflows averaged $59bn per month, up from $47.9bn in 2002.

The numbers indicate that the US attracted more than enough funds to balance the current account deficit - one of the big

fears that prompted the dollar's fall. The figures should allay concerns that a drying up of interest in US assets will help

push interest rates higher and damage stock markets.

But the data do not necessarily signal an end to the troubles of the US currency, which fell by about 15 per cent on a

trade-weighted basis last year and by about 20 per cent against the euro.

Strategists said many investors were upbeat about US assets but pessimistic about the currency.

As a result they were seeking to protect themselves against further falls by selling the dollar in the forward market -

putting further pressure on the sinking US currency and offsetting the positive impact on the dollar of purchases of US

assets.

The data also underlined the continued dependence of the dollar on inflows from Asian central banks, many of which have been

struggling to preserve their export competitiveness by preventing their currencies from rising.

"Private flows have been stronger than we expected but they are still not enough to finance the deficit on their own and

foreign central banks have continued to plug the gap," said Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at HSBC in New York.

"Net inflows into corporate bonds and equities - which come from the private sector - were $34bn in December but the current

account deficit was $45bn. Central banks have been making up the rest."

More up to date figures from the Federal Reserve suggest there has been no slowdown in purchases of US assets by Asian

central banks.

The Federal Reserve said its holdings of Treasury and agency debt on behalf of foreign central banks increased sharply in

early February to $1,126bn, a record high.

"So far this year the Fed's holdings on behalf of other central banks has risen by close to $59bn," said Mr Chandler.

But the purchasing was in agency rather than Treasury bonds.

Many economists say that heavy buying of US bonds by Japan and China has helped to prevent a surge in US interest rates and

prevented instability in the dollar and higher interest rates.

Net flows into US equities rose to a strong $13.3bn in December from $8.8bn the month before compared with an average inflow

of $3.1bn over the year.

In the bond market, net inflows into the Treasury market slipped to $29.8bn from $33.4bn but remained well above the $22.8bn

monthly average.

美元下跌无损美国资产的吸引力

珍妮弗•休斯(Jennifer Hughes)伦敦

克里斯多佛•斯旺(Christopher Swann)华盛顿报道

2004年2月18日 星期三 出版

美国财政部的资本流动数据报告显示，尽管去年美元下跌，但外国投资者对美国市场的投资资金依然增加，从而对美国资产市场投下了信任的

一票。

周二发布的一份月度报告显示，去年12月，净流入美国市场的资金总额达757亿美元，较前一个月的875亿美元有所降低，但仍然比10月份和9月

份的水平高出许多。9月和10月的流入资金分别为42亿和277亿美元。

纵观去年全年，每月的资金净流入量平均为590亿美元，高于2002年的479亿美元。数据表明，美国吸引的资金足以填补经常项目逆差的亏空，

而经常项目逆差则是导致美元下跌的主要原因之一。

经贸易加权后的美元去年下跌了约15%，兑欧元汇率则下跌约20%。战略分析师们认为，尽管流入美国的资金非常强劲，但美元下跌可能是由货

币对冲造成的。由于投资者试图通过远期合约保护自己，以免受美元下跌的影响，但即使是自己购买了美国资产，远期合约还是对美元施加了

进一步压力。

进入美国股市的资金净流入量12月份上涨强劲，从11月份的88亿美元升至133亿美元，而全年的月度平均值仅31亿美元。在债市方面，进入美国

国债市场的净流入量已从334亿美元降至298亿美元，但仍高于228亿美元的月平均值。

纽约银行(Bank of New York)货币策略师迈克尔•伍尔弗克(Michael Woolfolk)表示，12月份数据对美元来说是个“压倒性的”利好消息。

“这表明，美国将利率下调至40年来的低点，并没有将外国投资者对美国证券的兴趣降至原来想象的地步，”他说。

译者/伯弢

Unit05

Market failure in the media sector

When the leaders of media, telecommunications, IT and internet companies congregate, as they did recently in Davos, the talk

is upbeat about new accomplishments but subdued about recent ordeals: the dotcom bubble; the telecoms crash; the music

industry bust; the advertising downturn; the e-publishing revenue stagnation; the PC slowdown; the wireless saturation; the

semiconductor slump; the newspaper recession; the R&D retrenchment. And the question is, why do these predicaments sweep over

the information sector so regularly?

The prevalence of these problems points to fundamental issues beyond a specific industry or short-term period. Instead, we

need to recognise that the entire information sector - from music to newspapers to telecoms to internet to semiconductors and

anything in-between - has become subject to a gigantic market failure in slow motion. A market failure exists when market

prices cannot reach a self-sustaining equilibrium. The market failure of the entire information sector is one of the

fundamental trends of our time, with far-reaching long-term effects, and it is happening right in front of our eyes.

The basic structural reason for this problem is that information products are characterised by high fixed costs and low

marginal costs. They are expensive to produce but cheap to reproduce and distribute, and therefore exhibit strong economies

of scale with incentives to an over-supply. Second, more information products are continuously being offered to users. And

information products and services are becoming more "commodified", open, and competitive.

The main result of these factors is that prices for content, network distribution and equipment are collapsing across a broad

front. It seems to have become difficult to charge anything for information products and services. The music industry is

unable to maintain prices. Online publishers cannot charge their readers, except for a few premium providers such as the FT.

International phone call prices have dropped, and with internet telephony will move to near-zero. Web advertising prices have

collapsed. Much of world and national news is provided for free. A lot of software is distributed or acquired gratis.

Academic articles are being distributed online for free. TV and radio have always been free unless taxed. Even cable TV, at

20,000 programme hours a week, is available to viewers at a cost of a 1/10 of 1 cent per hour. Newspaper prices barely cover

the physical cost of paper and delivery; the content is thrown in for free.

All these are symptoms of a chronic price deflation that shows no sign of abating. It is a good deal for consumers, including

those of developing countries, but it spells disaster for providers. The price for their information or distribution is

dropping towards marginal cost, which is close to zero and typically does not cover full cost. No company can afford to do

this for long. And the more efficient the information market becomes due to technology, the faster this process advances.

And there is more trouble ahead.

First, the various sub-industries of the information sector affect each other more, and faster, than ever before. For

example, the excess availability of banner ads leads to the collapse of the business model for many websites, which in turn

harms tech magazines, telecoms networks, internet backbones, equipment makers and R&D.

Second, the information industries will go through boom-bust cycles, of which we have merely experienced the first. The

reaction of information sector companies to the price declines is to cut costs, outsource, hedge, diversify and use new

processes such as micropayments. They will try to innovate to differentiate their products. But there is a limit to the

ability of individuals and organisations to absorb rapid change over a sustained period. Therefore, the main strategy will be

to consolidate and cartelise in order to maintain pricing power. As a result, prices and profits rise (as well as media

concentration), which will lead again to expansion, entry, and by the same economic logic, to a new price collapse, with a

general downward trend in prices. Those fluctuations are then exacerbated through credit cycles triggered by the drop in

equity prices. Third, the price deflation oscillating through the information sector will drag down the rest of the economy,

too, through a multiplier effect.

The conclusion is, therefore, that as countries rely more on information-based activities, their economies become more

volatile.

If that is the case, what are the policy implications? Volunteerist activities such as open-source software, shared

information or public hotspots will not solve the problem, because they, too, are subject to the instability known as the

"tragedy of the commons", in which individuals' free-loading and over-utilisation destroys the communal effort. Therefore,

governments will inevitably be drawn into the business of stabilisation. But this is easier said than done. Classic

approaches such as Keynesian demand stimulation, or monetary policy or industrial strategy do not address the core problem of

the information sector. That problem is not inadequate demand or investment, but over-supply, competition and structural

price deflation.

Perhaps the most effective thing that government can do instead of interfering in the information sector is to help diversify

the economy to a more balanced portfolio. This means encouraging manufacturing industries that are not closely correlated

with the health of the information sector, often low-tech industries. Such a policy would represent quite a reversal from the

past, when every country wanted to develop into an information society. But the success of such a strategy exposes the entire

national economy to a greater volatility and disruption. Take Finland. Nokia accounts for 35 per cent of all exports and 15

per cent of GDP, including its secondary impacts. So imagine if the wireless business turns weak. A whole country is at risk,

not just a single company.

Thus, the information economy is likely to be a volatile, cyclical, unstable mess. The problem is not the "creative

destruction" one would expect in an innovative economy, but the structural instability of an economy whose major products

have very low marginal costs and hence prices, but are not low-cost to produce. The notion that an information-based economy

will be inherently prosperous must be revised for a less optimistic scenario.

But this conclusion might at least enable us to think ahead and contemplate private and public strategies. That would be

better than following the hype of previous years, which has led the information industries to their present crisis. It will

not be their last.

The writer is professor of economics and finance at Columbia University and director of its Columbia Institute for

Tele-Information.

信息经济的市场缺陷

当媒体、通信、IT和互联网公司的领袖们聚到一起，谈到新技术、新成就，大家总是兴致勃勃，但说到近期行业遭受的磨难，大家便默不做声

，就像近期在达沃斯(Davos)出现的情况一样。业内各个领域都遭遇难关：网络公司泡沫、电信公司破产、音乐产业萧条、广告业低迷、电子出

版业营收停滞、个人电脑业发展放缓、无线市场饱和、半导体业衰退、报业不景气、研发费用削减。而问题在于，为什么整个信息产业会如此

一致地陷入困境？

上述低迷状况如此普遍，说明出现了一些根本性的问题，这些问题不仅限于某个行业、也不仅是短期内存在。相反，我们需要认识到，整个信

息产业，从音乐、报纸、电信、互联网、半导体到业内任何领域，都已逐渐受到一个巨大的市场缺陷的影响。当市场价格不能达到自我持续的

平衡时，市场就存在某种缺陷。整个信息业的市场缺陷是我们这个时代的根本趋势之一，这种缺陷具有长期、深远的影响，而且正在我们眼前

发生。

这一问题基本的结构性原因在于，信息产品的特点就是固定成本高，而边际成本低。它们的生产成本高昂，但再生产和销售的成本低廉，因而

展现出强大的规模经济效益，并容易诱发供应过量。另外，有越来越多的信息产品正源源不断地提供给用户，而信息产品和服务正变得愈加“

商品化”、愈加开放，彼此竞争愈加激烈。

这些因素所产生的主要后果，就是内容、网络分布和设备的价格全线崩溃。现在似乎难以对信息产品和服务收取任何费用。音乐产业无法维持

价格；除了《金融时报》等几家优质内容供应商，其它在线出版商都无法对读者进行收费；国际长途电话价格下跌，而随着互联网电话的出现

，国际长途价格将几近于零；网上广告的价格已大幅下跌；大部分国内新闻和国际新闻都免费供应；很多软件无偿分发或可免费索取；学术论

文在网上免费提供；除非要交税，电视和广播向来可以白听白看；即使是有线电视，每周播放2万个小时的节目，也仅以每小时0.1美分的收费

提供给收看者；报纸的价格仅能偿付纸张和发行成本，内容则是免费奉送。

上述种种都是价格长期下跌的征兆，尚无迹象显示这种下跌趋势会有所缓和。这对消费者来说是件大好事，包括那些发展中国家的消费者，但

却为供应商带来灾难。供应商的信息售价或传播价格正在下跌，趋于边际成本，而边际成本则接近零，而且一般都不能负担全部成本。没有哪

家公司能够长期这么做。信息市场因科技发展变得越高效，上述进程的发展速度也越快。

而且接下去还有更多麻烦。

首先，和从前相比，信息业内各种次级产业相互影响的程度更大、速度更快。举例来说，“旗帜广告”(banner ads)的过度采用导致很多网站

的业务模式失败，转而又损害了科技杂志、电信网络、互联网骨干企业、设备制造商和研发业务。

其次，信息产业将不断经历盛衰周期，我们仅仅经历了其中第一个。面对价格滑坡，信息业公司所做的反应将是削减成本、外包、规避风险、

多样化经营，以及采用“微支付”等新方法。它们将努力革新，好让自己的产品变得独特。但是，个人和机构持续吸收快速变革的能力有限，

因此，他们采取的主要策略将是整合或组成企业联盟，以便维持定价能力。结果，价格和利润将会上升(媒体行业的集中程度也会提高)，这将

再次导致市场扩张和新企业的介入，而根据同样的经济学逻辑，将出现新的价格大幅下跌，呈现普遍的价格下降趋势。随后，在股价下跌引发

的信用循环中，价格波动加剧。再者，信息产业价格下跌的震荡局面，还将通过乘数效应拖累其它经济领域。

因此结论就是，随着各国越来越倚重以信息为基础的活动，它们的经济状况就会变得越来越不稳定。

若果真如此，那对于政策的制定又意味着什么呢？源代码开放软件、信息共享或公共热区之类的自愿者活动解决不了问题，因为这些活动也受

到被称为“公用领域的悲剧”（tragedy of the commons）的不稳定性的影响。在“公用领域的悲剧”中，个人吃白食、过度使用行为破坏了

公共群体的努力。因此，政府将不可避免地被卷入稳定大局的事务中。但这说来容易做来难。凯恩斯的需求刺激理论等经典方法，以及货币政

策或产业战略，都无法解决信息领域的核心问题。问题不是需求或投资不足，而是供应过度、竞争以及结构性价格紧缩。

也许政府所能做的最有效的事，并不是干预信息领域，而是帮助经济实现多样化，使之成为更平稳的组合。这就意味着要鼓励制造业的发展，

制造业通常是低科技产业，与信息产业的联系不太紧密。这样的政策将与各国以往的政策大相径庭，因为以往每个国家都想发展成为信息社会

。然而发展信息产业战略虽然取得成功，却使整个国民经济面临更大的动荡和崩溃的危险。以芬兰为例，诺基亚的出口占该国出口总额的35%，

产值占国内生产总值的15%，此外公司还施加了一些次级影响。因此想象一下，如果这家无线通讯公司变得疲弱，那么整个国家就会面临风险，

而不仅仅是这一家公司。

所以说，信息经济有可能是个波动性、周期性和不稳定的杂乱体系。人们以为这是一个创新型经济体内会出现的“创造性破坏”，但问题并非

如此，而是一个经济体中的结构性不稳定。在该经济体中，主要产品的边际成本都很低，因此价格也很低，但产品的制造成本不菲。有人认为

，以信息为基础的经济自然会保持繁荣，现在必须修正这种观念，应认识到情况不太乐观。

但是，这个结论也许至少能让我们未雨绸缪，提前考虑在个人领域和公共领域该采取的策略。这比继续前几年天花乱坠的宣传要好，正是这些

宣传令信息企业陷入目前的危机，而这不会是它们面临的最后一个危机。

作者是哥伦比亚大学经济学与金融学教授，兼该校电信信息学院院长。

Unit06

Enron's Skilling faces 42-count indictment

By Joshua Chaffin in Washington

Published: February 19 2004 0:06 | Last Updated: February 19 2004 17:33

Jeffrey Skilling, the former chief executive of Enron, was charged on Thursday with directing a wide-ranging scheme to

manipulate earnings while reaping tens of millions of dollars from illegal insider stock sales.

Mr Skilling - who was led in handcuffs to the federal court in Houston - pleaded not guilty to 42 counts of securities fraud,

insider trading and other crimes. He faces the possibility of life imprisonment, and $80m in fines and restitution.

An grand jury indictment delivered late on Wednesday made him the most senior Enron executive to face criminal charges since

the company's spectacular collapse in December 2001. It marks the US Justice Department's greatest success after a two-year

crackdown on white-collar crime undertaken at the behest of President George W. Bush.

Read more news and analysis of the case against former Enron chief executive Jeff Skilling, and on the investigation into the

collapse of the energy giant

Deputy Attorney General James Comey said in a statement that the indictment accused Mr Skilling and other executives of

concocting "a massive, complex scheme to give shareholders and the investing public the false appearance of financial

strength and security at a time when Enron was, in fact, failing".

The Securities and Exchange Commission has also filed civil charges against Mr Skilling, accusing him of violating and aiding

and abetting the violation of a series of federal securities regulations.

Stephen Cutler, the SEC's head of enforcement, said in a statment: "Let there be no mistake that today's enforcement action

against Mr Skilling places accountability exactly where it belongs."

Until his resignation shortly before the scandal broke, Mr Skilling had led Enron on a dizzying ride from staid Houston

pipeline business to one of the US's most celebrated companies.

The federal indictment lists a series of schemes stemming from the California energy crisis to Enron's web of now-infamous

off-balance sheet partnerships that Mr Skilling and his liutenants allegedly employed to flatter the company's earnings, and

bolster its share price. Many of the schemes were detailed in previous indictments.

The authorities allege, for example, that at Mr Skilling's direction Enron salted away $1bn in trading profits earned during

the California electricity crisis, then used the money to make up for shortfalls in struggling divisions such as its

highly-touted retail energy business.

Mr Skilling is also accused of lying to investors about the prospects of the company's Broadband division, which planned to

deliver movies and other content into customers' homes, in order to boost Enron's share price.

At the same time, he sold 1m shares of Enron stock, earning $63m in profits, from April 2000 until shortly after he left the

company in September 2001, according to the government.

Despite bringing charges against a number of former Enron executives, the Justice Department had come under mounting

criticism for its failure to the company's most senior former figures - Mr Skilling and Kenneth Lay, the former chairman.

The case against Mr Skilling appeared to move forward last month after prosecutors won a guilty plea from Andrew Fastow, the

former chief financial officer, who agreed to co-operate with the investigation.

They also brought charges against Richard Causey, who worked closely with Mr Skilling as Enron's former chief accountant.

Thursday's indictment included new charges against Mr Causey.

安然前首席执行官面临42项指控

乔舒亚•查芬(Joshua Chaffin)华盛顿报道

2004年2月20日 星期五 出版

安然(Enron)前首席执行官杰夫•斯基林(Jeff Skilling)因大规模财务欺诈被控42项刑事罪，周四凌晨他已向美国联邦调查局投案。欺诈案导致

这家休斯敦能源公司破产。

斯基林先生后来在休斯敦联邦法官面前表示，他对所有指控均不认罪。对他的指控包括欺诈、内部交易，以及向公司的审计师提供虚假报表。

指控是由司法部的安然工作组和美国证交会共同提出。作为美国主要的金融监管机构的证交会，也对斯基林先生提出民事诉讼。

司法部副部长詹姆斯•科米(James Comey)在华盛顿的新闻发布会上表示，斯基林先生和其他高级管理人员被控捏造“一个大规模的复杂方案，

以给股东和投资公众以公司财务强劲安全的虚假表象，而此刻安然事实上要破产了”。

证交会指控斯基林先生违反、帮助并怂恿违反了一系列联邦证券法规。

证交会执法部主管斯蒂芬•卡特勒(Stephen Cutler)在一份声明中指出：“错不了，斯基林先生今天被提起诉讼，他是难辞其咎、罪有应得。”

两年前，总统布什(George W. Bush)召集成立了一个公司欺诈特别工作组，而对斯基林先生的指控标志着司法部自此以来取得的最大胜利。

尽管司法部的工作组已对数百名高级管理人士提出会计欺诈及其他指控，但工作组也因未对斯基林先生和电信集团世通(WorldCom)的前任首席

执行官伯尼•埃伯斯(Bernie Ebbers)等高管提起诉讼，一直受到严厉的批评。

在安然前首席财务官安德鲁•法斯托(Andrew Fastow)与司法部门达成认罪协议后，起诉斯基林先生的行动上月似乎获得动力。根据协议，法斯

托先生同意服刑10年，并与检察机关合作。

译者/伯弢

Text 07

Yahoo stops using Google as its search engine

By Richard Waters in San Francisco

Published: February 18 2004 18:58 | Last Updated: February 18 2004 18:58

Yahoo on Wednesday raised the stakes in the internet search wars by abandoning Google in favour of an in-house search engine

on its websites.

With Microsoft ready to launch a rival technology, the move sets up a three-way struggle that will challenge Google's recent

dominance of internet searching.

The coming battle reflects the emergence of searching as the internet's "killer application", with more people using a search

engine as the starting point, whether to find information or products to buy.

Yahoo signalled its intent to challenge Google last year when it bought Inktomi, a company that enjoyed an early technology

lead but fell on hard times after the dotcom crash. It had already indicated that it planned to replace Google as the search

service used by visitors to the Yahoo portal early this year.

The race to catch up with Google comes as the internet upstart continues to strengthen its grip on searching. In December,

half of all people in the US who used a search engine visited Google at least once, according to Nielsen/NetRatings, a

research firm. In contrast, 29 per cent visited Yahoo during the month, 30 per cent went to Microsoft's MSN service and just

15 per cent opted to use AOL.

Google's dominance is even greater than these numbers suggest. Its search engine carried out all the searches on AOL and,

until now, Yahoo. Searches on MSN, meanwhile, are powered by Yahoo's search engine, though that relationship is also expected

to end once Microsoft perfects its own technology.

Jeff Weiner, head of search at Yahoo, said the decision to switch on the company's new search engine came after internal

tests showed the quality of its results were better than those of rivals in terms of relevance, comprehensiveness and

timeliness.

The company planned to use personal information about its users to customise the results of searches to make them more

relevant. This personalisation would take advantage of data supplied by more than 100m people registered to use Yahoo's

various information services.

In an effort to compete with Google, Yahoo has built its own engineering research group round Inktomi and two other search

engines it acquired.

But unlike Google, its results still rely partly on human intervention, using the team of editors that created the first

internet directory on which Yahoo's original business was built.

雅虎弃用Google自建搜索引擎

理查德•沃特斯(Richard Waters)报道

2004年2月19日 星期四 出版

雅虎(Yahoo!)昨天提高了互联网搜索战中的筹码，弃用Google，转而在自己网站上采用内部搜索引擎。

由于微软(Microsoft)也在伺机推出自己的竞争搜索技术，雅虎此举形成了一种三足鼎立的竞争格局，将挑战Google近来在互联网搜索领域的霸

主地位。

这场即将发生的战斗表明，互联网搜索的崛起已成为互联网的“杀手应用”，无论何时上网，无论是寻找信息还是购买产品，更多的人都将搜

索引擎作为出发点。

雅虎去年在收购了Inktomi后，率先表明了挑战Google的意图。Inktomi创建初期还能坐享技术上的领先优势，但在网络产业大滑坡后经营困难

而衰落。雅虎曾经表示，计划在今年年初某个时候替换Google，不再将它作为雅虎门户网站访问者使用的搜索引擎。

追赶Google的竞赛开始时，正值这家互联网新贵在持续加强对搜索业务的控制。根据调查公司尼尔森互联网研究(Nielsen/NetRatings)的数据

，去年12月，美国使用搜索引擎的人群中，有一半的人至少访问了一次Google。而相比之下，该月有29%的人访问了雅虎，30%的人选择微软的

MSN服务，另有15%的人访问了美国在线(AOL)。

Google的主导地位甚至比这些数据所揭示的还要强大。它的搜索引擎执行了美国在线和(到现在为止)雅虎上的所有搜索任务。与此同时，MSN的

搜索任务目前依靠雅虎的搜索引擎，尽管一旦微软完善其自身技术后，预计这种关系也将终结。

雅虎公司搜索业务主管杰夫•韦纳(Jeff Weiner)表示，在决定转用公司自己的新搜索引擎之前，公司内部的测试表明，在检索相关度、全面性

和耗时方面，新搜索引擎的搜索结果都超过了竞争对手。

为了同Google强大的工程技术相抗衡，雅虎已围绕Inktomi和其它两个被它收购的搜索引擎，建立了自己的工程研究集团。与Google不同，雅虎

的搜索结果仍依赖于人工干预，它用的是创建第一个互联网目录的编辑队伍，雅虎最初的业务正是在这个目录上建立起来的。

译者/李功文

Text 08

White-Collar Man in a Blue-Collar World

My job requires skills, like driving a forklift, I haven't got. My Ivy League education won't help me now.

Can you drive a forklift? Those five deflating words instantly alerted me that my prep－school background and advanced

degrees would mean nothing on the new job.

Like thousands last year, I was downsized from one of those sizzling dotcoms, now dot－gone. Faced with a shrinking job

market, I turned to manual labor. It’s a common trend, now that unemployment is at 5.8 percent. But the transition is seldom

seamless.

I didn’t know that. Indeed, there is a whole tool kit of basic skills that Andover, Bates, Columbia and Harvard never

equipped me with. But there are mo ments when I shine. I can read the Latin on every public building we pass. When the

truckdriver from Quebec arrived with an 18－wheeler of mulch and I began conversing in near－flawless Parisian French about

his long journey and breakfast of croissants, my boss’s eyes lit up.

In hydroseeding, my main responsibility is to guide 200 feet of heavy, serpentine hose while the boss sprays the slime. But

there’s more to my job than wrestling the anaconda.

Sometimes the hose gets clogged. Sometimes the chain comes off the mixer. And sometimes I have to use the side mirrors to

move the 60,000－pound truck in reverse. All these situations require an all－around mechanical common sense that is as

important to the blue－collar worker as the ability to navigate Microsoft Office is to the white－collar one. These are

the"value subtracted"moments my background has not prepared me for.

So I'm happy when those occasions arise when I can offer the benefits of my education. Of course, it annoys the hell out of

my boss how rarely my skill set actually helps us out. And it amazes him how I'm forever dawdling with my coffee and

misplacing it at job sites. Or how I'm morbidly preoccupied with safety－－like the time, fearing electrocution, when I

refused to hold up a lowhanging cable wire to allow our tall truck to pass beneath. （"It carries a signal, not a current!"he

hollered, grabbing it for dramatic effect. ）

In some ways, ours is a clash of cultures. On days off, the boss changes the oil in his pickup, retiles his kitchen floor or

does brickwork；I take my car through the automatic wash, go bird watching or read"Nicholas Nickleby. "This last tickles him

－－so mighty are my struggles reading maps.

But I'm just as strong as he is, and can match him bale for bale, hoisting the 50－pound sacks of seed we fill the truck

with. So there is the basis for a bit of grudging respect. And for all of my drawbacks, I am at least reliable－－a vestige,

perhaps, of the grim"show up at your desk at all costs（if only to sit there）"ethic.

But still it caught me off guard when, with the air now cold and the hydroseeding season over, the boss inquired recently：

"Can you drive a snowplow?"

我的工作所要求的技能，比如开叉车，是我所不具备的。我的名牌大学教育背景现在毫无用处。

"你会开叉车吗？"这句听起来让人泄气的话一下提醒了我，我上大学之前所受的教育和大学中得到的学位在这份工作中都毫无用处。

去年，如同成千上万的人一样，我被一家网络公司裁了员，这些网络公司火爆一时，如今都已成了昨日黄花。由于就业市场萎缩，我不得不去

干体力活。这是一个普遍的趋势，因为失业率已经达到了5.8％。但是这种转变总是令人难熬的。

这一点我的确不知道。实际上，有许多基本技能,安多佛、贝兹、哥伦比亚和哈佛大学都没有教过我。但是我也有闪光的时候，我能读懂每一座

我们所经过的建筑上的拉丁文。当一辆满载地面覆盖物的18轮大卡车从魁北克开来的时候，我开始用近乎纯正的巴黎法语跟司机聊起他的旅程

和羊角面包的早餐，这时老板的眼睛一下亮了起来。

在播种的时候，我的主要工作是在老板向地上喷洒种子和黏胶混合物的时候，拖着200英尺长的沉重的蛇形管。但是我的工作可不仅仅是拖着一

条像蟒蛇一样的管子

有时管子被堵住了，有时卡圈从接合器上掉下来了，有时我必须用侧视镜来倒车，而这辆卡车有６万镑重。这些都需要有良好的机械常识，对

蓝领工人来说，这就像使用微软办公系统对于白领阶层一样重要。这些都是我所不具备的，都是我"跌价"的时刻。

所以，当碰到能显示我所受教育的优势的时候，我就显得格外的高兴。当然，我的技能能够派上用场的时候太少了，这常常把我老板气得够呛

。而且看着我慢吞吞地喝着咖啡，在工地随便乱放，也弄得他无可奈何。还有当我过分强调安全的时候，就像有一次，我拒绝举起一根垂得太

低的电缆线，以便让我们的卡车通过。（他大喊起来："那里面只有信号，没有电流。"说罢一手夺了过去。）

从某种意义上来说，我们的冲突是不同文化间的冲突。在休息日里，老板会给他的小货车换油，或是重铺厨房地板，或做瓦工活；我则开车去

自动洗车场，出去观鸟，或是读《尼克拉斯•尼科比》（狄更斯小说）。这最后一项使他感到很好笑，因为我看地图时总是很费劲。

但是我跟他一样地强壮，论体力我们可以一对一地较量，在把每包重５０磅的种子扛上卡车时，他扛一包，我也能扛一包。所以在这点上，即

使不情愿，他也不能不对我有所敬重。尽管我有许多弱点，但我至少是可靠的---也许是我的脑子里还留着旧的道德观念?";不论付出什么代价

也要准点上班（哪怕只是坐在那里）"。 　　

但是最近天气转冷，育种的季节已过，老板突然问我"你会不会开扫雪机？"，我一下感到措手不及。（史淳 译自Newsweek）

Text 09

Put the effort in every day

As a young boy, I grew up with my eight siblings in a tin-roofed shack in Summerfield, Louisiana. I didn't see my

circumstance as an obstacle, even though we didn't even have a real toilet in the house. I saw my life more as a card that

had been dealt to me and I tried to make the most of it.

I was the youngest of five boys and also had four sisters who had to pull together and take care of each other. Dad wasn't

around, so I never knew him well. He committed suicide when I was three years old, leaving Mom with the job of raising and

providing for nine kids. She worked at a sawmill running a forklift for fifty dollars a week and had another job at a poultry

plant. She was a very hard worker, and in order to make ends meet, she hardly ever rested.

My mom believed in doing all she could do to take care of her responsibilities, so no matter what, she never asked for a

handout. You can imagine; we kids didn't get what we wanted, but we always got the things we needed. With my mom as my

example, I learned that hard work is the best way to get what you want.

While growing up, I was surrounded with temptations to do negative things like drugs, alcohol and all that. I chose not to go

there, even as a little boy, I knew I was going to be successful. Some people take that to be cocky or conceited, but I

wasn't going to let anybody tell me that I couldn't do whatever I set out to do.

Of course, I dreamed about what I wanted to be when I grew up. At first, I wanted be a state trooper, then I wanted to be in

the Special Forces. After a while, I decided that I wanted to drive eighteen-wheelers. There was even a period of time that I

wanted to be in construction. I wanted to play football in high school; in fact, I still do. But regardless of what I chose,

I wanted to make my brothers, sisters and mom proud of me -- not only by being successful in what I chose to do, but also as

a person who could be looked up to for the right reasons.

Surprising as it might seem, basketball wasn't in my plans. One day, my mom cut a rim off an old water barrel and then held

it up for me to throw an old rubber ball through. By junior high, I started playing basketball on a team． I loved to compete

．There was a positive high I got by going out and playing against other people and working hard to win. For me, it paid off.

I just let my success in basketball take its course but I always put the effort in every day. No matter what I've done, some

people wait for my down fall, saying, “ Karl Malone can't do it.” Instead of letting people like that get to me, they are

actually my motivation and I continue to prove them wrong every single day. I try to do the best job I can in a positive way

on and off the court. I realize that no matter what I'm dealing with, there's somebody else out there who has it a littel bit

worse off. I've been there. And I know that without continued hard work, I could be there again.

I am grateful for the life I've enjoyed as a basketball star. But when I see these shirts that say “ Basketball is life,” I

think Yeah, right! It is not life. It can be exciting. But the important thing about basketball is that it gives me a way to

do good things for others as I move through this journey called life．

Success is really about choosing right from wrong, making a positive contribution to the world around you and valuing the

things that are really important -- like family and friends.

While everyone else was looking to popular atheles, actors and musicians as positive role models, my mom was my inspiration,

and she continues to be all these years later. She taught me that hard work never killed anybody. My mom is my hero. She, my

family and friends bring me more joy than anything else in life does.

At the end of my life, I don't want to be remembered as the kind of person who just sat on his rear end and said, “ I've

made it.” I don't ever want to have to say that I didn't give it everything that I've got. Sure there are days that I don't

feel like working hard． ． ． but I do it anyway， cause that's who I am.

每一天都要努力

童年时代的我住在位于路易斯安那州萨墨菲尔德的一间简陋的以铁皮为屋顶的房子里，有8个兄弟姐妹，连一个像样的厕所都没有。但是，我并

没有把这样的家庭环境看成是一个障碍，而是把它当作发到自己手里的一张牌，我所做的努力是要让这张牌发挥出它最大的用处。

我是家里5兄弟中最小的男孩子，还有4个相依为命的姐妹。父亲已经不在人世，他在我3岁的时候就自杀了，我对他几乎没有什么印象。父亲死

后，抚养9个孩子的重担就落在了母亲的肩上。母亲是锯木厂里开叉车的工人，每星期有50美元的收入，此外，她在家禽加工厂还有一份差事。

我母亲是个非常吃苦耐劳的女人，为了养家糊口，她拼命工作，从不休息。

她坚信只要自己努力就一定能够养活全家，所以她从不接受任何施舍。你可以想象我们姊妹兄弟的生活状况：尽管从来买不起自己想要的东西

，但是日常生活的必需品总是能够得到满足。从母亲身上，我懂得了勤奋是获得一切的最佳途径。

随着年龄的增长，我逐渐遇到各种不良行为的诱惑，比如吸毒、酗酒，凡此种种。我从不去那些地方，因为我从小就相信自己长大以后一定能

大有作为。有些人将我的这种想法视为骄傲或自负，但我不这么认为。只要我确定了自己想做的事情，就不允许别人说我做不到。

当然，我也梦想过长大以后想做什么。起初，我想当国民警卫队员，还想过进特种兵部队。后来，我想当一名售装箱大卡车司机。还有一段时

间，我甚至想当一名建筑工人。上高中的时候，我喜爱美式足球，直到现在我还时常玩玩。但不管我选择做什么，我的最终目的是要让母亲和

兄弟姐妹们为我骄傲--不仅要为我在事业上获得成功而骄傲，更要为我成为了一个受人尊重的人而骄傲。

也许听起来会有些令人诧异，篮球当时并没有被列在我的人生计划中。记得有一天，母亲把一只旧水桶沿边剪下一个圈来，为我举着，让我投

橡皮球玩。到了初中，我开始在篮球队里打球。我喜爱打比赛，它给我一种快感，与人比拼，为了获胜，我吃苦耐劳，常代表学校出去比赛。

对我来说，这叫做"天道酬勤"。我并不刻意去争抢成功和荣誉，但是我的的确确每天都在为此付出努力。不管我怎么做，有些人却并不希望看

到我成功。他们说："卡尔•马龙不行。"我一点儿也不计较那些不中听的话，相反，它们倒成了我拼搏的动力。不论赛场内外，我总是努力做到

最好，每一天以自己的实际行动证明他们的话是错误的。我也发现，不管我怎么样应对，身边总有一些人是在退步。我也曾走过下坡路，所以

我明白不进则退的道理。

作为一个篮球明星，我很感谢生活赐予我的这一切。当我看见这些T恤衫上写着"篮球就是生命"时，我要说"是啊，对啊"。但其实篮球并不等于

生命，尽管它很刺激。篮球能够让我在这段所谓“生命”的旅程中为别人做一些好事，我认为这才是最重要的。

成功其实意味着弃恶扬善，为你身边的人们做点好事以及珍惜一切珍贵的东西，比如家人和朋友。

当人们都去选择某个著名的运动员、演员或者歌星作为自己崇拜的偶像时，我却选择母亲作为我的偶像。她是我全部灵感的来源，这些年来一

直如此。她教导我说，勤奋工作从来不会累死人，她是我心目中的英雄。母亲、我的家庭以及朋友所给予我的快乐是生活中其他任何事物所不

能及的。

在我离开人世的那一天，我不愿意在人们记忆中是这样一种人，这种人只是一屁股坐在那里对人说：“我功成名就了”,也永远不想说对我所取

得的一切没有尽到自己最大的努力。当然，我也有过放松懈怠的日子...但无论如何我还是努力去干，因为那毕竟是真实的我。

Text 10

Lie-detector camera looks into your eyes

A new heat-detecting camera can catch a liar in the act - at least 75% of the time, according to a small scientific study out

today.

If additional tests confirm its ability, the lie-detector camera might one day be used by airport security to apprehend

terrorists before they get on an airplane, says researcher James Levine of the Mayo Clinic.

But one critic questions whether the camera would ever be reliable enough to be used on a large scale, or whether it could

spot someone who plans to commit a crime.

Levine's group reported their early findings in today's Nature.

Levine and his colleagues enlisted 20 U.S. Army recruits to help test the camera, which records the heat patterns that are

created when blood rushes to the human face. The researchers told eight of the recruits in the study to commit a mock crime.

They were told to stab a mannequin, rob it of $20, then lie about the "crime." The remaining 12 people in the study knew

nothing about the fake crime.

The researchers took all 20 people into an interrogation room. They asked them whether they had stolen $20 and then recorded

their answers with a standard polygraph test and the new camera.

The camera caught six out of eight liars as they were lying - the same lie-detecting ability as the polygraph test. The

camera also correctly identified 11 of the 12 people who were telling the truth - a slightly better rate than the polygraph.

The study is so small that it can't be used as proof of the camera's ability to catch a thief or a liar, Levine says. Still,

he is hopeful that the camera is recording a subtle flushing of the face that may automatically occur when someone lies.

That flushing may not be caught by the naked eye, but the camera shows a bright red-orange-yellow zone that represents blood

rushing to the eyes. "When someone lies, you get an instantaneous warming around the eyes," he says. Levine speculates that

people who lie are afraid of getting caught. That fear triggers a primitive response to run away. Blood goes to the eyes so

that the liar can more efficiently map out an escape route, he says.

Levine says it may take years before the camera would be ready for a test at a large U.S. airport.

Alan Zelicoff, a senior scientist at the Center for National Security and Arms Control at the Sandia National Laboratories in

Albuquerque, says that even if the camera works as well as it did in this study, it would mistakenly label lots of people as

liars. At a busy U.S. airport, those mistakes could mean a thousand passengers a day who would get pulled aside by security -

a move that would probably mean lots of missed flights and irate passengers, he says.

USA TODAY

测谎摄像机看透眼睛

今日公布的一项小型科研表明，一种新型的热检测摄像机，至少在75%的检测中能当场捉住说谎者。

梅约医院的研究人员James Levine说，如果另外的试验也能证实该机的性能，总有一天，机场保安会运用这种测谎摄像机去逮捕企图登机的恐

怖分子。

但是，一位批评者质疑该摄像机在大规模使用时是否可靠，或它是否真能准确地找出企图犯罪的人。

Levine在今天的《自然》杂志上报告了他们的初步研究结果。

Levine和他的同事选出20名美军新兵参与试验该摄像机，该试验记录着当血涌上人脸时所形成的热图形。研究人员让8名受试的新兵模拟犯罪，

叫他们刺伤人体模型，从中抢走20美元，然后说谎来掩盖这次“罪行”。其余12名受试新兵则对这次模拟犯罪一无所知。

研究人员把20名受试者带入审讯室，审问他们是否偷了20美元，然后用标准测谎仪和新型摄像机记录他们的回答。

摄像机从正在说谎的8人中鉴别出6人说了谎，该机的测谎能力与测试仪相同。摄像机也从12位说实话者中正确地识别出11人，稍强于测谎仪。

Levine说，该研究刚刚起步，该机还不能作为捉住小偷或说谎者的证据，但他希望该机能记录人们在说谎时所自发产生的微微脸红。

肉眼看不到这种脸红，但摄像机可显示一个明亮的红-橙-黄带，它代表人的血液涌到了眼睛上。他说：“当某人说谎时，眼睛周围立即会出现

发热。” Levine推测说，说谎的人害怕被捉住，这种恐惧引起要逃跑的本能反应，血冲到眼睛是为了有助于说谎者更好地找到逃跑线路。

Levine说，可能还要花几年时间，才能将该摄像机投放在美国大型机场做检测用。

在阿尔布开克市的国家实验室的国家安全和军备控制中心，资深科学家Alan Zelicoff说，既使这种摄像机如同它在本次试验中做得一样好，它

也可能将许多人误认为说谎者。 他说，在繁忙的美国机场，这种错误将意味着每天有1千名乘客被保安扣压，这一举动可能造成许多航班误点

，并激怒乘客。

译文今日美国 ReadUSA.cn

Text 11

Asia's currencies will not budge

Japan and Asian emerging market economies have one thing in common: they are desperate to keep their currencies down against

the US dollar. They would far rather lend the US the money with which to buy their exports than endanger their

competitiveness or become reliant on fickle foreign finance. Does this behaviour make sense? Is it likely to change soon? The

answer to these questions is: Yes and, in all probability, No.

The rest of the world has a deep interest in this issue. The Europeans, in particular, long for the Asians to share in the

adjustment to the weakening US dollar. This passionate desire is not surprising. According to the February Consensus

Forecasts, the current account surplus of the Asia-Pacific region was $234bn last year, against only $35bn for the eurozone.

This makes it puzzling, at first glance, that it is the euro, not the Asian currencies, that is soaring.

One explanation could be that the private capital outflow from Asia offsets the current account surplus. But this has not

been the case. According to the Institute for International Finance, Asian emerging market economies ran an aggregate current

account surplus last year of $73bn. In addition, they had a net capital inflow of $114bn. This is why their foreign currency

reserves rose by about $187bn over the year. Meanwhile, Japan's foreign currency reserves rose by $201bn. It has taken vast

intervention to prevent the dollar from tumbling against these currencies.

Why, then, have the Asian countries intervened so persistently and on this enormous scale?

Part of the answer is their determination to preserve export competitiveness. This has a regional dimension, as well. In

2001, for example, the countries of east and south-east Asia (including Japan) sent just under half their exports to one

another. Moreover, China has become the assembly platform for components made throughout the region. The region's

export-oriented countries are determined to preserve competitiveness against its new giant and also against one another.

Yet almost equal in significance are worries about the capital account. For Asian emerging market economies have learnt from

the experience of 1997 and 1998 a lesson that is rather different from that drawn by orthodox economists. The latter believe

that the crisis showed the danger of adjustable pegs. It would be better, goes the argument, to choose between irrevocably

fixed exchange rates (or, better still, dollarisation) and freely floating rates. The directly affected countries drew a

different conclusion. Polonius advised his son to be neither a lender nor a borrower. The Asians decided instead that it was

far better to be a lender than a borrower.

The chief explanation for this is what economists have come to call "original sin", by which they mean the reluctance of

international capital markets to lend in the currencies of emerging economies. If such economies become substantial net

debtors in foreign currency, they become vulnerable to mass bankruptcy or public sector insolvency if their currency tumbles.

Yet just such a collapse becomes likely as foreign currency indebtedness grows.

The solution then is to prevent the country from becoming a net debtor in the first place. This is relatively simple for most

Asian countries, because the saving rates of their private sectors are high. The newly industrialised Asian economies (Hong

Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan) had private savings rates of 22 per cent of gross domestic product in 2002. Japan's

private sector savings were 26 per cent of GDP. Asian developing countries, dominated by China, had overall savings rates of

35 per cent of GDP. These high savings rates largely explain why the region is the world's largest capital exporter.

The two obvious ways to eliminate the current account surpluses are an exceptional investment boom (as happened, so

disastrously, before the Asian financial crisis) and huge government dissaving (as is happening in Japan). Exchange rate

appreciation cannot, on its own, bring about the desired outcome. Appreciation is likely, instead, to generate deflation

before the external surpluses re-emerge.

The combination of concerns about competitiveness with risk aversion over foreign currency debt does much to explain Asian

exchange-rate policies. But, as Ronald McKinnon of Stanford University points out, there is even more.* The dollar also

provides an anchor for monetary policy and, given the undeveloped state of the region's financial markets, facilitates

hedging by merchants and banks against exchange rate risk.

The conclusion is that Asian exchange-rate policy is perfectly rational. So when might it change? The answer lies in what

Prof McKinnon calls "conflicted virtue". As the stock of foreign currency accumulates, speculation on an appreciation rises,

making it ever more costly to hold the currency down. In addition, foreigners start complaining about the trade surpluses,

arguing that they are the unfair result of currency undervaluation.

Both these pressures are now emerging. In China, for example, intervention has generated faster growth of money and credit

and rising inflation. As Goldman Sachs notes, inflation was 3.2 per cent in the year to December against minus 0.4 per cent a

year before. In 1971, Richard Nixon imposed an across-the-board import surcharge as a way to force currency realignments.

Since protectionist sentiment is growing in the US, it is possible to imagine this happening once again.

Nevertheless, the pressures are not yet strong enough to trigger a big change in policy. Nor would a change make sense

without a significant shift in the region's macroeconomic policies, as well, towards lower savings rates and higher

consumption. Any change in exchange rates would also need to be led by China. But, for the moment, the Asian giant seems

quite happy to stay where it is.

Whatever Europeans may desire, the prognosis is that Asia will continue to run huge current account surpluses and interfere

in exchange markets. Its governments will not lightly abandon policies that they believe work well for the convenience of any

outsiders.

The East Asian Dollar

不让步的亚洲货币

日本和亚洲新兴市场经济国家有一个共性：它们都不顾一切地压低其货币对美元的汇价。它们宁可把钱借给美国，让美国用借来的钱购买它们

向美国出口的商品，而不愿使自己的竞争力受到威胁，或者受变化无定的外国金融市场左右。这种行为有没有合理性呢？会不会很快改变呢？

对第一个问题，回答是肯定的，而第二个问题的答案却是否定的。

世界各国对这个问题极为关心。特别是欧洲期望亚洲分摊美元贬值调整的负担。这种强烈的愿望毫不奇怪。根据英国Consensus Forecasts机构

的预测结果，去年亚太地区的经常帐户盈余为2340亿美元，而欧元区盈余只有350亿美元。乍一看让人迷惑不解，因为上涨的是欧元而不是亚洲

各国货币。

一种解释便是，亚洲私人资本流出抵消了经常帐户盈余。但事实并非如此。按照国际金融研究所（Institute for International Finance）估

计，亚洲新兴市场经济国家去年的经常帐户盈余总额为730亿美元。除此之外，向亚洲国家的资本净流入为1140亿美元。这就是为什么这些国家

的外汇储备在一年中上升了大约1870亿美元。同时，日本的外汇储备增加了2010亿美元。这些国家采取了大规模的干预行动以阻止美元兑亚洲

国家货币汇率急剧下跌。

亚洲国家为何如此不屈不挠，进行大规模干预呢？ 部分答案在于，这些国家决意保持出口竞争力。这也有地区因素在起作用。例如，2001年，

东亚和东南亚国家（日本除外）间的互相出口占了出口总额不到一半。而且，中国成为整个地区制造零配件的组装平台。该地区面向出口的国

家既要针对新巨人保持竞争力，也要相互间保持竞争力。

但是，对资本帐户的担忧几乎具有同样的重要性。因为亚洲国家汲取了1997至1998年的教训，这个教训与正统经济学家得出的结论有很大不同

。后者相信，那次危机表明，可调整的汇率挂钩制度是危险的。这种观点认为，最好在完全的固定汇率（或者更好是实行美元化）和自由浮动

汇率两者间选择。直接受到影响的国家得出不同的结论。莎士比亚名剧《哈姆雷特》剧中人波洛尼厄斯(Polonius)忠告他的儿子说，既不要借

钱给人，也不要向别人借钱。而亚洲人的结论是，当借钱给人的债权人，比当欠人钱的债务人要好得多。

对这种现象的主要解释是经济学家所称的“原罪”，其含义是，国际资本市场不情愿用新兴经济国家的货币发放贷款。如果这些经济成为主要

的净外币债务国，当它们货币的汇率大幅下降时，将会造成大量倒闭或公共部门无力偿还债务的情况。随着外币债务增长，更可能发生其货币

汇率大跌。

解决这个问题，首先是要防止一个国家成为净债务国。对大多数亚洲国家来说，这是简单的，因为这些国家私人储蓄率很高。2002年，新兴工

业化亚洲经济（香港、新加坡、韩国和台湾）的私人储蓄率相当于国内生产总值的22％。日本的私人储蓄率为GDP的26％。以中国为主的亚洲发

展中国家，总储蓄率为GDP的35％。这些高储蓄率可以在很大程度上解释为什么该地区是世界上最大的资本输出地区。

消除经常帐户盈余有两种明显的方法，一是特别高的投资（在亚洲金融危机之前曾经出现并酿成灾难），二是政府大量动用储金（如日本正在

发生的情况）。汇率升值本身并不能带来理想的结果。相反，汇率升值有可能在外部盈余出现之前导致通货紧缩。

对失去竞争力以及对规避外币债务风险的关注，这两个因素加在一起，很大程度上可以解释亚洲国家的汇率政策。但是，正如斯坦福大学的罗

纳德#麦金农（Ronald McKinnon）指出的那样，原因不止这些。*美元也为制定货币政策提供一个定位点，在该地区金融市场不发达的背景下，

有助于商人和银行规避外汇风险。

结论是，亚洲汇率政策完全是有理性的。什么时候有可能改变呢？回答在于麦金农教授所称的“冲突的美德”。随着外币资产累积，对升值的

预期也将提高，甚至使将货币汇率压低的成本更高。除此之外，国外开始抱怨贸易盈余，认为这是因为货币低估的不公平竞争造成的。

两种压力现在双双出现。例如，中国的干预造成货币和信用以及通货膨胀率上升。高盛（Goldman Sachs）预测，在截至去年12月份为止的一年

中，中国的通货膨胀率为3.2％，而一年前的通货膨胀率为负0.4％。1971年，美国总统理查德#尼克松（Richard Nixon）实施了全面进口特别

关税，以便强制的汇率调整。由于现在美国的保护主义者思潮正在抬头，可以想象这种情况正在重演。

不过，现在的压力尚不足以触发重大的政策变动。同时，在该地区宏观经济政策未进行重大调整，以鼓励低储蓄率和高消费的情况下，也不存

在改变的合理性。任何政策改变也需要中国率先行动。但是，在目前，这个亚洲巨人似乎很满意它的现行政策。

Text 12

Shipping stocks soar on the back of freight gains

By Kevin Morrison

Published: February 22 2004 18:02 | Last Updated: February 22 2004 18:02

Shipping stocks have jumped sharply during the past 12 months on the back of gains in freight rates.

Container rates have doubled in the past year as China has become the workshop of the world - underlined by a 35 per cent

increase in trade through mainland Chinese ports last year.

Chinese oil imports - up 30 per cent last year - have also helped quadruple oil tanker rates from the 2002 average, mostly in

the past five months.

Barry Norris, manager at Neptune European Opportunities Fund, said investors may have missed out on the strong rise in share

prices because the sector is regarded as a backwater.

However, investors have cashed in as the boom has taken hold. An investment in Denmark's AP Moller-Maersk would have more

than doubled in the past 12 months, because of its exposure to both the tanker and container markets.

John Fredriksen, chairman of Oslo and Nasdaq-listed Frontline, one of the world's largest owners of crude oil tankers, has

seen his 48 per cent stake in the company rise to a value of more than $1bn.

Frontline, which is expected to generate dividends of $500m for all its shareholders in 2003, is trading on a price earnings

ratio of about three, in spite of its strong recent performance. "Compare that with semiconductor firms that are trading at

30 times their peak earnings," said Mr Norris. "Call me old fashioned, but I quite like companies that return money to

shareholders."

Mr Fredriksen, Norway's richest man, has also profited from his 42 per cent stake in Golar LNG, which owns 10 LNG carriers.

His holding is worth almost $500m, more than double its value a year ago.

The rise in shipping costs has created fresh demand for ship brokers, which match cargoes to carriers. Shares in Clarkson of

the UK, one of the few listed shipping brokers, have jumped 170 per cent since the start of last year. Port operators are

also benefitting. Investec, the stockbroker, recommended the UK port sector to investors on the basis of strong growth

generated by rising imports from Asia.

However, many ports on the south coast of England are suffering capacity constraints.

Resources companies are also not pleased by the rise in shipping freight rates. Chip Goodyear, chief executive of BHP

Billiton, the mining group that is the biggest mover of bulk commodities in the world, said the lack of ship availability was

one of the biggest threats to its business.

世界工厂中国 推动全球航运业

凯文•莫里森(Kevin Morrison)报道

2004年2月23日 星期一 出版

由于费率上涨，航运类股票过去12个月里价格大幅攀升。

费率上涨的主要原因是因为中国已成为全球工厂，去年中国大陆主要港口的贸易量猛增35%，集装箱运输费率翻了一倍。

去年中国的石油进口激增30%，也推动了油轮费率急升，达到2002年平均水平的4倍，其中的价格上涨主要集中在最近的五个月。

海王星欧洲机会基金(Neptune European Opportunities Fund)经理人巴里•诺里斯(Barry Norris)说，由于航运板块通常被看成是一潭死水，

投资者可能错过了该板块股票价格的强劲上扬。

但随着该板块的旺盛景象变得稳固，投资者已开始获利。在过去12个月里，如果先前投资了丹麦马士基航运集团(AP Moller-Maersk)，则这笔

投资已经翻了一倍以上，这是因为该公司同时涉足油轮和集装箱市场。

船运公司Frontline董事长约翰•弗雷德里克森(John Fredriksen)已目睹他在该公司48%的股权价值升至逾10亿美元。Frontline公司同时在奥斯

陆和纳斯达克上市，是世界上最大的油轮公司之一。

尽管Frontline近期股价表现强劲，但目前市盈率约为3，预期该公司2003年将为所有股东带来5亿美元股息红利。“与半导体公司收益达到顶峰

时的30倍市盈率相比，”诺里斯先生说，“你可以说我落伍，但我很喜欢那些把金钱回报给股东的公司。”

挪威首富弗雷德里克森先生拥有液化石油气航运公司Golar LNG42%的股权，并也已从中获益匪浅。他所持有的股票现在价值近5亿美元，比一年

前的价值翻了一倍还多。Golar LNG拥有10条液化石油气船。

译者/张征

Text 13

Japan's trade surplus soars on Asian demand

By Barney Jopson in Tokyo and Scheherazade Daneshkhu in London

Published: February 23 2004 7:43 | Last Updated: February 23 2004 10:44

China's booming economy helped push Japan's trade surplus up almost five-fold last month compared with January 2003,

underscoring the role of strong regional growth in boosting Japan's economic recovery.

Japan's strong export growth is powering a broadening economic pick-up by stimulating business investment, as consumer

spending has also begun to improve. In the past quarter this helped lift Japan's annualized GDP growth rate to 7 per cent.

The value of Japanese goods sucked in by China's economy rose 33.8 per cent last month, with construction machinery, steel

and chemicals among the goods most in demand.

Shipments to the US, until recently Japan's biggest trading partner, fell 5.4 per cent, but the world's largest economy still

absorbs twice as many Japanese goods as China in value terms.

The surplus was well in excess of market expectations, hitting Y507bn compared with Y103bn a year earlier. Exports were up

11.3 per cent and imports 0.8 per cent higher, according to government data released on Monday. About 29 per cent of the

increase in unadjusted exports was to China.

Peter Morgan, economist at HSBC in Tokyo, however, cautioned that exports were unlikely to keep accelerating. "Monthly export

growth has generally peaked at around 15 per cent in previous cycles and we're getting close to that," he said.

The strengthening yen has been regarded as the main risk to Japan's upturn, but the fact that exports grew in January,

despite the currency's continued rise, has temporarily allayed concerns. The yen rose by 11.6 per cent against the dollar

over the 12 months to January this year. It has fallen back since the end of Januray by 2.3 per cent to Y108.25 on Monday.

There was some concern at the level of exports to the US. Richard Jerram, economist at ING, said: "It's a little surprising

the numbers haven't shown an improvement even as the American economy is getting better."

But he added: "A lot of exports are now going to the US via China or other third countries, so Japan is still benefiting from

the US recovery, but not so directly."

Shipments from Japan to both China and the US are vulnerable when the yen rises against the dollar. China, in effect, pegs

its currency against the dollar.

The funds spent by the Japanese government to weaken the yen and support exports last month exceeded the value of those

exports. Intervention hit a monthly record of Y7,154bn while exports totalled Y4,277bn. Even so, the yen ended the month

stronger than it began.

However, in the middle of last week the currency began a sharp fall from Y105.7 against the dollar to a low of Y109.3 in

Tokyo on Monday.

The moves raised further suspicions of government intervention, but analysts said its current level was likely to be

short-lived given the continued downward pressure exerted on the dollar by the US budget and current account deficits

中国需求强劲 日本贸易顺差大增

FT记者报道

2004年2月24日 星期二 出版

由于中国经济蓬勃发展，帮助推动日本上个月贸易顺差攀升至2003年1月的近5倍。这突出表明了强劲的区域经济增长带动日本经济复苏。

日本强劲的出口增长刺激了企业投资，为更大范围的经济回暖提供了动力，象消费者支出也已开始改善。上一季度，出口增长令日本的国内生

产总值（按年度计算）增长7%。

上月，中国经济所吸收的日本货物总值上升了33.8%，中国对施工机械、钢铁和化工产品等货物的需求最大。

日本对美国的出货量下降了5.4%，但以金额来衡量，这个全球最大经济体吸收的日本商品仍然是中国的两倍。直到最近，美国仍是日本最大的

贸易伙伴。

出口顺差远远超出了市场预期，达到5070亿日元，而上年同期仅为1030亿日元。根据日本政府昨天公布的数据，出口上升了11.3%，同时进口上

升0.8%。在未经调整的出口中，有29%的增长归于对中国的出口。

日元走强一度被视为日本经济好转的主要风险，但尽管日元持续上扬，1月份出口却出现了增长，这一事实暂时缓解了这种忧虑。截至今年1月

的12个月里，日元兑美元升值了11.6%。自1月底以来，日元兑美元回落了2.3%，周一至108.25日元。

如果日元兑美元升值，那么日本对中国和美国的出口都容易受损。中国实际上将其货币与美元挂钩。

巴尼•乔普森(Barney Jopson)东京、舍赫拉查德•达内什库(Scheherazade Daneshkhu)伦敦报道

译者/张征

Text 14

Citigroup set to acquire KorAm in $2.7bn deal

Citigroup on Monday took big step towards becoming a significant presence in South Korea's retail banking market with a

$2.7bn deal to take over KorAm, the country's sixth largest commercial bank.

The takeover is the biggest foreign investment yet into Asia's fourth largest economy and marks the first takeover of a South

Korean bank by a foreign strategic bidder. Previous investments from overseas have been by private equity funds.

Citigroup agreed to buy a 37 per cent stake from a group led by Carlyle, a US buy-out fund, and JP Morgan Corsair, a private

equity investment partnership established in 1993.

The deal is a blow to Standard Chartered, the UK-based bank, which owns a 9.8 per cent stake in KorAm and had been seen as

the favourite to buy the bank.

Citigroup will now have a strong foothold in one of Asia's biggest retail banking markets. Sir Deryck Maughan, chairman of

Citigroup International, said: "Korea is a strategic priority for Citigroup. The combination of KorAm and Citigroup will

create a leading local bank with global capabilities."

The deal increases Citigroup's branch network in Korea from 12 to 234, while credit card customers will inc