Weather Bureau Forecasters 1899 TV weather reporter William Carlsen, using gimmicks (whip cream) to...
If you can't read please download the document
Weather Bureau Forecasters 1899 TV weather reporter William Carlsen, using gimmicks (whip cream) to forecast weather. Milwaukee, WI, 1955 Weather Forecasting:
Weather Bureau Forecasters 1899 TV weather reporter William
Carlsen, using gimmicks (whip cream) to forecast weather.
Milwaukee, WI, 1955 Weather Forecasting: Three centuries in thirty
minutes
Slide 2
Never, no matter what may be the progress of science, will
honest scientists who care for their reputation venture to predict
weather. Francois Arago, 1786-1853
Slide 3
Robert FitzRoy London, 1861 Father of the Weather Forecast
Slide 4
Elias Loomis 1811-1889 Weather Map, 1870 Such a set of maps
would be worth more than all hitherto done in meteorology. The
subject may nigh be exhausted. But one year of maps would be
needed, the storms of one year are probably a repetition of those
proceeding.
Slide 5
Great Lakes ship, 1864 On Great Lakes in 1868 1,100 ships
damaged, 321 mariners killed
Slide 6
Cleveland Abbe, Cincinnati, OH 1838-1916 1 st Chief
Meteorologist US Army Signal Service We do not propose to guess at
weather we leave that to the almanac makers, but we shall be able
to assert the nature of the weather up to four days in
advance.
Slide 7
Cold wave Rain or snowFair weather US Post Office Weather flags
- 1873 Local rain or snow
Slide 8
First known photograph of a tornado 1884
Slide 9
Weather Bureau Office 1900
Slide 10
Waves from Ike crash over the Galveston Seawall in front of the
memorial to the Hurricane of 1900 (over 6000 died) Houston
Chronicle Photo
Slide 11
Isaac Cline Weather Bureau Forecaster Galveston, TX 1900 The
opinion that Galveston will at some time be seriously damaged by a
hurricane is simply an absurd delusion and can only have its origin
in imagination and not from reasoning.
Slide 12
The Strand, Galveston, TX 1900
Slide 13
Path of the Galveston, TX hurricane September 8, 1900
Slide 14
Galveston, TX, September 1900 Waves = 15 ft, Galveston = 8.7
ft
Slide 15
Galveston, September 1900
Slide 16
The Track of Great New England Hurricane of 1938 The storm was
into Connecticut before the warning was issued for Long Island The
hurricane was tracking north at 60 mph when it hit Fire Island,
which was hit by 15-20 foot storm surge A wind gust of 186 mph was
recorded at the Blue Hill Observatory in Massachusetts.
Slide 17
Scenes from southern New England during/after the Hurricane of
1938
Slide 18
In New England an estimated 275 million trees were destroyed
700 lives were lost. Almost 9000 homes destroyed
Slide 19
The Greatest Forecast Ever Made
Slide 20
Gen Eisenhower wanted: Full moon 40 minutes of daylight Low
tide Good weather
U.S. Weather Bureau staff Green Bay 1943-44. Eleanor, Winnie,
Hilda (in charge), Marian. Weather Bureau: 1941 - 2 women 1945 -
900 women Hilda climbing a 40 foot tower (on top of a six story
building) to fix the wind equipment - 1943
Slide 24
Although much better than what meteorologists had during the
Normandy Invasion, these maps were a far cry from what was to come.
In the 1980s (and first part of the 90s) forecasters received their
maps via a printer. These computer models projections of the
futurewere one dimensional and monochromatic
Slide 25
In the 1980s and 90s, the NWS used a system called AFOS to look
at weather maps. Images were again monochromatic. This could only
display maps; satellite imagery, lightning activity, and radar had
to all be viewed on different machines/ screens.
Slide 26
NOAA Geostationary Orbiting Equatorial Satellite (GOES),
visible image GOES satellites orbit 22,400 miles over the earth,
remain over one spot 1980s the decade of the satellite
Slide 27
Doppler radar images from the Oklahoma City radar May 4, 1999
Moore, OK F5 tornado Reflectivity Velocity Green = toward the
radar, Red = away Intensity key 1990s the decade of the radar
Slide 28
Compare the radar of the past to todays. This 1944 thunderstorm
image looked quite similar to what offices were using almost fifty
years later in 1992 And this regional image which was captured
during the June 29, 2012 derecho
Slide 29
In the early 2000s, the NWS made a quantum leap in how
forecasters looked at data to make forecasts/look at radar/many
other products. AWIPS integrated all of the models/surface
data/radar/satellite/lightning/hydrology. Instead of needing
multiple display systems, now there was one. 2000s and 2010s (so
far) the decade(s) of the computer
Slide 30
AWIPS allows forecasters to have multiple windows of model
guidance and real time information! This is a satellite image from
the remnants of Sep 2004 Hurricane Ivan (40 tornadoes in VA that
day a record!) with surface observations overlaid. In the upper
left window is a radar image. Lightning in purple
Slide 31
Slide 32
The observations taken by the weather balloon paint a picture
of the upper atmosphere: the temperature, moisture content, and
winds. The information obtained by the balloons globally is fed
into computers that create the weather models used by forecasters.
The balloon information received on the morning of the Feb 6, 2010
snowstorm One of our incredibly dedicated staff who take launch
those balloons in all types of weather Temperature trace Dewpoint
(moisture) Wind speed and direction
Slide 33
What Goes Into Todays Forecast? Upper Air Data Surface
Observations Satellite Data Radar Data Model Guidance Forecaster
experience/knowledge is the MOST IMPORTANT thing that goes into a
forecast.
Slide 34
Making the Forecast Some of the elements that we forecast:
Temperature/Dewpoint Visibility Sky cover/cloud height Wind
Speed/Direction Probability of Precipitation Amount of Rain/Snow
Type of Weather : (Rain/Snow/Freezing Rain/ Thunder/Fog) Wave
Height We use computer tools to draw gridded forecasts for all of
these parameters. We take area-specific effect into account, such
as the elevation of the Highlands and Shenadoah National Park (over
3000) and the waters of the Chesapeake Bay.
Slide 35
Each county in our forecast area is its own forecast zone.
AWIPS takes all of the gridded parameters the meteorologist has
compiled, and software converts the images into a worded forecast
Pictures to Words
Slide 36
The gridded database allows any person with a computer to
receive a forecast for their specific location just mouse over a
spot and click
Slide 37
The point and click forecast. You can get this for any location
in the country, start from weather.gov
Slide 38
weather.gov/washington or weather.gov/baltimore Latest
Watches/Warnings/ Advisories Hazardous Weather Outlook Local
Forecast Also check out http://mobile.weather.gov (geared for cell
phone browsers)
Slide 39
MARINE FORECASTS We issue wind, wave and weather forecasts for
the Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay
Slide 40
And aviation forecasts at six airports including BWI,
Washington National, and Dulles comprising cloud height and
coverage, wind speed and direction, visibility, and any significant
weather
Slide 41
And so weve gone from this
Slide 42
To thisNWS Sterling Personnel
Slide 43
Questions? Wrangell-St. Elias National Park, June 2012