New Applications for Forecasters

New Applications for Forecasters

EGOWS 2007

Heleen ter Pelkwijk

The items of this presentation

• Rich Intranet Application• Dashboard• Product Generation• Application for the use of Conditional Climatology

Rich Intranet Application

• Purpose:

Create an easily accessible operational intranet environment (weather items) for the forecasters.


• Reason:

- More than half of the forecasters make frequent use of internet/intranet

- Researchers want to have an easily accessible outlet to show the forecasters their experimental products.


• Method:- Creation of two intranet domains:

Proeftuin.knmi.nl (the playground for scientists)Oper.knmi.nl (the operational website)

- Creation of a combined menu (portal)


• Method:

Definition of operational intranet system:Data streams, data processing and the server are

monitored and when needed repaired 24 X 7.

The experimental site has an operational server but no operational data!


• Result:- The menu is created from a database- All information has a tag “oper” or “exper”- All information has its own unique product

number


• Result:


• Result:


• Result:


• Result:


• Result:


• Result:


• Result:


• Conclusion:

Do we still need a dedicated meteorological workstation?



Dashboard

• Purpose:

- Dashboard = the interface of a monitoring tool- Dashboard gives a signal (trigger) in case a severe event occurs.

Dashboard

• Reason:- The forecaster has to handle more and more data- The forecaster has to make the right decision as soon as possible

• Desired results:- Makes the forecaster aware of important

phenomenon as soon as possible- Quality and efficiency- Optimal man-machine mix

Dashboard

• Method: Possible monitoring types- observations – products (standard/incidental)- observations – model- model – model

- model – product (difference can be a choice)- observation – observation- product – product (consistency)- Product – time (monitoring)

RADAR

trigger module

trigger dashboard

detailed info (intranet)

product editor

Dashboard:

the conceptground obs.

model

Dashboard

• Realised at this moment1. Observations – product

- accumulation of precipitation from the radar / limit for a weather alarm- thunderstorm data from “FLITS” / limit for a weather alarm- wind observations / limit for a weather alarm- snow and blowing snow / limit for a weather alarm

2. Model – product- EPS / limit for a weather alarm- EPS / warnings for customers

Dashboard

• Result: What does it look like?

Dashboard

• Result: What does it look like?

Dashboard

• Problems:

- Not too many triggers!- How to keep it conveniently arranged

Dashboard

• Solutions:

- The use of smart mechanisms to reduce the amount of triggers- Filter and sort possibilities- Link triggers to the content of the forecasts



Product Generation

• Purpose:

Reducing the “routine jobs” by automate part of the standard production.

Product Generation

• Reason:- To make more efficient use of the time of the

forecaster. - To make more time for the important things

during the shift like advising customers and severe weather monitoring.

- To make it possible to work with weather dependent shifts…..more time for applied research.

Product Generation

• Method:

data

cust

omer

s

Forecaster:

1. Monitoring2. Monitoring and adapt automatic product generation3. Not automatic production4. Not automatic monitoring

objectivepost processing

automatic Product generation

automatic monitoring

The red data streams are not monitored by the forecasters!

Basis data(Observations, models, statistic values)

Generation of:•Texts (retrieval / text generation)•pictures•triggers

auto

+ mets

Product parts(Text, pictures)

Products(product layout)

dashboard

Weather dependent loop

Crossing of fixed

threshold value(s)?

Weather dependent control by the forecaster

no yes

Automatic distribution Trigger to the forecaster;

A check and possible adjustments.

Then distribution.

Extra attention when the product becomes more important

Product Generation

• Goal:

Precipitation forecast Zoommeer

Average of 3 stations: Vlissingen, Brasschaat (of Woensdrecht) en Gilze Rijen

Modified long term forecast

EPS output

Available alternative – Amount of observed precipitation

Available alternative – Amount of observed precipitation in detail

Available alternative – precipitation forecast

Glider forecast

..already available within KNMI…

..New ideas…

..more ideas…

Product Generation

• At this moment:

Pilot with the use of e-forms



Application for the use of Conditional Climatology• Purpose:

An application which makes it possible to give an quick overview of the change in, for instance the visibility, during the next 12 hours, based on climatology.

This systems works for fog/low visibility/low clouds

Application for the use of Conditional Climatology• Reason:

Give the forecaster an easy access to recent climatological reference material (1977-2006) to help him/her to make the forecast.

Application for the use of Conditional Climatology• Methode:

- conditionally- Use of classes (colours => autotaf)

Fog (in m) Cloud height (in ft)0-200 0-200200-500 200-500500-800 500-1000800-1500 1000-15001500-3000

Application for the use of Conditional Climatology• Used:

- Hourly synops over the past 30 years- 20 stations

Application for the use of Conditional Climatology



Documents

New Applications for Forecasters