The climate change bill under consideration by Congress ignores the impacts on everyone who uses or produces petroleum fuels like gasoline, diesel and natural gas. So it will hit both households and businesses hard – everyon e who uses cars, trucks, planes, trains, and tractors or the thousands of products produced or transported using these fuels. It will create an uneven playing field for U.S. refiners who will lose market share and jobs to foreign competitors who do not have to limit their own greenhouse gas emissions. Higher prices: The bill will touch every family and every business that uses oil products. According to one government analysis, the bill will raise prices to $5.10 per gallon for gasoline and $5.60 per gallon for diesel fuel. 1 Less disposable income: According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), average household energy costs could increase as much as $1,870 in 2030. 1 That’s 5.3 percent of today’s average per capita disposable income. 2 Fewer jobs and lower wages: EIA’s study, as well as those commissioned by the National Black Chamber of Commerce, the National Manufacturers Association and the Ameri can Council for Capita l Format ion all reach t he same co nclusion about j obs – that as a conseq uence of t his legisl ation, t here will be more than 2 million few er jobs in 2030, even with new green jobs created. 3 One analysis expects the wages of workers who remain employed to fall and for the loss to become greater over time. 4 Another analysis shows that the unbalanced approach of the bill by itself will produce additional unemployment, destroying more than 2 million jobs nationwide as soon as 2011. 5 For Virginia this could mean a loss of 42,413 jobs over the next couple of years. If those jobs were lost today, it would increase Virginia’s unemployment rate from 7.1 percent to 8.2 percent. 6 Less wealth: One analysis projects the bill would reduce aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) by $9.4 trillion over the next 26 years. 5 For Virginia this could mean a reduction of as much as $9 billion in our state’s gross state product (GSP) on average over this period. 7 Less energy security: U.S. refiners will have to buy a disproportionate share of new allowances, increasing their costs and giving a competitive advantage to non-U.S. refiners. One analysis concludes that as a result of this legislation, fuel imports will double by 2030 from what they would have been. 8 Contrary to the bill’s intention, America will be less energy secure. Little environmental gain, big economic pain: Even the federal Government Accountability Office (GAO) warns that cap and trade legislation could make American companies less able to compete internationally and could drive American jobs overseas to countries that do not limi t greenh ouse gas e missions, thus dri ving up i nterna tional e missions enough to offset or overwhelm U.S. cuts. 9 Virginia The people of Page 1 Learn more at API.org will be hurt by the Waxman-Markey Climate Bill. 1 U.S. Energy Information Administr ation, “Energy Market and Economic Impacts of H.R. 2454, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009,” August 4, 2009. 2 API calculation based on U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data. 3 EIA (August 20 09); CRA Internat ional (August 20 09); Science Applications International Corporation , “Analysis of the Waxman- Markey Bill ‘The American Clean Energy and Security Act of2009’ (H.R. 2454) Using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS/ACCF-NAM2),” prepared for the National Association ofManufacturers and the American Council for Capital Formation, August 12, 2009. 4 CRA International, “Impact on the Economy of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (H.R. 2454),” prepared for the National Black Chamber of Commerce, August 2009. 5 The Heritage Foundation, “Son of Waxman-Mark ey: More Polit ics Makes for a More Costly Bill,” edmemo no. 2450, May 18, 2009. Revised and updated June 16, 2009. 6 API calculations based on U.S. Bur eau of Labor Statistics state data and The Heritage Foundation estimate of job losses from “Impact of the Waxman-Markey’s Climate Change Legislation on the States,” webmemo #2585, August 19, 2009. 7 The Heritage Foundation, “Impact of the Waxman-Markey Climate Change Legislation on the States,” webmemo #2585, August 19, 2009. 8 EnSys Energy, “Waxman-Markey (H .R. 2454) R efining Sector Impact Assessment,” prepared for the API, August 21, 2009. 9 “Climate Change Trade Measures, Estimating Industry Effects,” U.S. GAO testimony before the Committee on Finance, U.S. Senate, July 8, 2009, pp5-6.
