Water Implications of Advanced Energy Choices ...The dominant energy trends are increased fuel use and increased CO 2 emissions Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil (feedstock) Oil Coal Wood 0 1000

DU RESCUE(Renewable Energy ScienceCommUnity and Enterprise)Committee RenewableEnergy Speaker SeriesMay 4, 2011

Robin L. NewmarkDirector, Strategic Energy Analysis Center

Water Implications of Advanced Energy Choices:Understanding the challenges and opportunities

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

“Hot, Flat and Crowded” (Thomas Friedman, 2008)”

Global Warming

Water resources

increasingly stressed Rise of the middle class

…all wanting to consume like

Americans, with resource

implications!

Population growth

Between now and 2020, there will be

another 1 billion people in the world. If

Tom gives each of them a 60W light bulb,

it will require about 20 new 500-MW coal-

burning power plants, just so they can

turn on their light bulb. That requires

about 160 billion gallons/day

(nearly 500 acre-ft) of water to produce.

If I give them each a glass of water, it will

require almost 200 acre-ft!


Hot, Flat and Crowded: Colorado in 2050

• Mean temperature may rise 2.5-5.5oF

• Mountain climates projected to migrate upward in

elevation

•Desert Southwest climate to progress up into the

valleys of the Western Slope.

• Average annual precipitation may show little

change, but a seasonal shift in precipitation

emerges.

• Strong decline in lower-elevation snowpack

(<8200’), modest for higher elevations

• Earlier spring runoff, reduced late-summer flows

Source: Climate Change in Colorado, Western Water Assessment,

2008

Global Warming

• Population at ~7 million

(up from ~5 million today)

• Demographic shifts (urban sprawl?)

Source: Colorado’s Population in 2050, NPG, Inc., 2001

Population growth

Rise of the middle class?

Can this be sustained? Currently receive

only 17 inches of precipitation annually


Energy and Water are linked:

Energy for water and water for energy

Energy

production

requires water

• Thermoelectric

cooling

• Hydropower

• Extraction and mining

• Fuel Production (H2,

ethanol, biofuels)

• Emission controls

Water

production

and

distribution

require

energy

• Pumping

• Treatment

• Transport


Water for Energy

GALLONS PER PERSON PER DAY

510 for food production– includes irrigation and livestock

465 to produce household electricity– Range: 30 to 600 depending on technology

100 direct household use– includes bathing, laundry, lawn watering, etc.

Water needed to produce household electricity

exceeds direct household water use

Source: derived from Gleick, P. (2002), World's Water 2002-2003.


Water challenges are nationwide

Source: USGS Circular 1200 (Year 1995), EPRI 2003

Projected Population Growth (2000-2020)Source: NETL (2002)

50%

%

30%

30%

40%

10%

10%

30%

15%

5%

15%

20%

35%

20%


The dominant energy trends are increased fuel use and increased CO2 emissions

Nuclear

Hydro

Gas

Oil (feedstock)

Oil

Coal

Wood

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Mil

lio

ns o

f To

ns o

f O

il E

qu

ivale

nt385ppm

(2008)

Holdren, 2008

Renewables

We have never used less of any fuel

If all future demand were met by zero

carbon sources, we’d have the same graph


Actual emissions for 200-2007 track along the upper range of IPCC emissions scenarios

30.8 billion

tons in 2006


McKinsey & Co global GHG abatement cost curve beyond business-as-usual 2030: lots of options considered

84

70

56

42

28

14

0

–14

–28

–42

–56

–70

–84

–98

–112

–126

–140

This is one assessment of potential options and their

impacts

Source: McKinsey&Co, 2009


Global emissions relative to different GHG concentration pathways: indications for rapid response

Current US goal

R. Aines, 2009, after McKinsey & Co., 2009

Aggressive 2ºC goal

Some have proposed to address gaps by direct

capture of CO2 from the atmosphere

A 10-yr delay in taking abatement action would make it virtually impossible to keep global warming below 2oC (McKinsey, 2009)


Source: DOE Report to Congress (2007)

Water Used for Fuel Extraction and Processing

Gal/MMBTU

Substantial amounts of water are used in fuel extraction/processing

Biofuels

Hydrogen

Many new technologies are water intensive, increasing demands on water resources:

- Biofuels- Hydrogen

Constraints will grow for

energy development and

power plant siting

Future energy development will put new demands on water resources

Shale gas uses substantial water (per well values):Drilling: 60,000 (Fayetteville) – 80,000 (Marcellus) -1,000,000 gal (Haynesville)Frac fluids: 3,800,000 gal (Marcellus) – 2,300,000 gal (Barnett)

Source: GWPC and ALL (2009), Veil, 2010


We will likely continue to use fossil fuel resources – because they are plentiful and we are used to them

Proved Recoverable World Reserve Estimated World Resource

Natural Gas

More than

5,000 Tcf

Coal

984 billion tons

Oil

Just over 1

trillion barrels

Methane Hydrates

Up to 270 Million Tcf

Proved recoverable

reserves should last most

of the 21st century

World Energy Council

1998 Survey of Energy

Resources


Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) involves multiple processes – some have water implications


Sustainability metrics: water requirements for electricity generation technologies

Adding CCS Source: Macknick et al., 2011

Differences result from both generation and cooling technologies

NuclearRenewables


New regulations: Estimated EPA ruling impacts

Targets Potential Compliance Strategy

CATR/NAAQS SO2, NOx, PM, Ozone Scrubbers, low-NOx burners, SCR, fuel switching, inter- and intrastate trading of credits, dispatch

Utility MACT Mercury, acid gases, toxins

Fabric filters, scrubbers, activated carbon injection, fuel switching

Coal Combustion Residuals

Storage and disposal of coal residuals

Special impoundment lots and/or landfills

Water (316b) Heavy water withdrawal(to protect wildlife)

Closed loop cooling towers, dry cooling, advanced technology


Proposed regulations: implications for investments, retirements

16

Plants potentially required to retrofit or retire

• EPA regulations

• State environmental review, permitting regulations

• Others?


Source: Aines/Bourcier/Wolfe

Synergistic opportunities: Simultaneous CO2 removal and fresh water production (Decarbonation/Desalination)

Separate fresh water along with CO2 from flue gas -

perform two separations in one operation Treating 7.5 M m3 of displaced brine to

create fresh water could:

Help manage pressure in the saline

aquifer

Provide half the plant’s operating

fresh water (includes cooling)

Modern 1 GW IGCC plant’s CO2: 7.5 million m3


Advanced designs provide opportunitiesDry Cooling Examples From Water-Constrained Regions

South Africa: World’s largest dry cooling (coal)

power station at Matimba (Royal Society of South Africa,1998)

Incremental costs over all-wet cooling (Choi and Glicksman, 1979):

Fossil Nuclear

(800MWe) (1200MWe)

high back pressure turbine 11% 22%

conventional turbine 15% 25%

Bilibino, FSU: Creative solution to seasonal water

scarcity - 4 small graphite reactors, each with a dry

cooling tower used in the winter (Horak, pers. comm)


Advanced designs provide opportunitiesUsing reclaimed water

Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station: the only nuclear facility that uses 100% reclaimed water for cooling

• Maintains “zero discharge”; no water discharged to rivers, streams or oceans

• Water Reclamation Facility: 90 MGD tertiary treatment, reclaiming treated secondary effluent

• Yearly cost for water treatment is <5% O&M

Source:Robert Lotts, ANS 2006 (Arizona Public

Service)


Water intensity of transportation fuels is likely to increase

20


21

Life cycle assessments: where are the greatest impacts?

Example: LCA of Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007: Ethanol-global warming potential and environmental emissions

Source: Heath et al., 2009

TOTAL LIFE CYCLE WATER USE FOR 2022 E85GWP FOR 2022 E85 ACROSS FEEDSTOCKS


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Water/Waste

Water

Paper&Pulp Chemical Petroleum

Refining

Percent of

U.S.

Electricity

Generation

Used by

IndustrySource: DOE, 2004

Energy for Water

The Water/Wastewater Sector is already a major user of electricity

Will increase in future


Use of non-traditional water resources is growing

Desal growing at 10% per year, waste water reuse at 15% per yearReuse not accounted for in USGS assessmentsNon-traditional water use is energy intensive

(From EPA 2004, Water Reuse 2007, Mickley 2003)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Kw

h/m

^3

Sea WaterRO

Today The Future

ConventionalTreatment

BrackishRO

BrackishNF

Power Requirements For Treatment

(Einfeld 2007)

Courtesy, Mike Hightower


New water supplies require energy

Water Supply Options Energy Demand

(kWhr/kgal)

Fresh Water Importation

(100-300 miles)

10-18

Seawater Desalination w/Reverse Osmosis 12-20

Brackish Groundwater Desalination

Reverse Osmosis Treatment

Pumping and concentrate management

Total

7-9

1-3

8-12

Aquifer Storage and Recovery

Pre-treatment (as needed)

Post-treatment (as needed)

Pumping

Total

3-4

3-4

2-3

5-11

Courtesy, Mike Hightower

*CPUC pilot program: efficiency credits for energy imbedded in saving water


Separation science: opportunities to reduce the energy requirements for treatment

Ener

gy U

se, M

J/m

3

*

Reverse osmosis:

Electrodialysis:

Thermal methods

Fresh /

Impaired


26

NREL is unique: the only DOE national laboratory dedicated solely to renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies

Sustainability is a key concept of our energy future Energy-water nexus is addressed in many ways:

Water useindividual technologies, technology pathways, life cycle assessments

Water savingsEfficiency, conservation, technology implementation programs

Integration- RE with water/wastewater/treatment- RE in energy system portfolios- Energy and water flows in the built environment


Strategic Energy Analysis

Integrated Assessments

Assess resource availability and

characteristics

Resources

Analyze technology and component

performance and cost

Technology/Components

Analyze energy scenarios and/or the

benefits and impacts of energy plans,

programs, portfolios, or policy options

Evaluate implications of markets, financial

instruments and economic factors

Economics, Markets and Finance

Overall system performance and technology

interfaces in the context of the overall

system

Systems

Risk and Uncertainty


The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model offers the high geospatial granularity needed for renewable resource supplies

356 wind/CSP resource regions134 Power Control Areas (PCA)17 annual time slices23 2-yr time periods 2006-2050


20% Wind By 2030 Study Results


Analysis: Evaluation of impacts of a proposed 20% Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) on the energy sector using ReEDS model

Contributions to power generation capacity in a 20% RPS case

Contributions to meeting total load in the 20% RPS case

Source: Logan et al., 2009


Water impacts: initial study assumptions

Scenarios in support of a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) focused on utility-scale solar energy development1.

Current energy policy only (currently formulated state RPS goals, no carbon policy, no national RPS)

Technologies: • Conventionals: Coal (pulverized and IGCC), Gas-CC, Gas-CT, nuclear• Renewables: utility-PV, CSP, wind (onshore/offshore), bio, geo, hydro• Storage: Compressed air energy storage, pumped-hydro, batteries

Technology costs from Black and Veatch, fuel projections from AEO 2010

Regional resource limitations, exclusions based on land considerations (resource intensity, slope, protected lands, incompatible land use (e.g., wetlands, urban areas))

1 Information on the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) can be found at http://solareis.anl.gov/eis/index.cfm


Scenario results

ReEDS optimizes electric sector system cost every 2 years, using a 20-yr investment period

Expands generation capacity and transmission capacity to ensure that regional demand and reliability requirements (planning and operating reserves) are met

Water consumption factors for individual technologies are applied to results by PCA region

These results, from a single scenario, are illustrative of

the potential evolution of the electricity sector


Power sector water use decreases in scenario by 2050

2006

Wat

er

inte

nsi

tyW

ate

r co

nsu

mp

tio

n

2050

Gal/MWh

<0

>400

Gallons

<0

>30 billion

Total generation has increased 38%; water consumption has declined 7% overall; some areas see increases

Nationally, water intensity is reduced by 33%; some areas see increases

Gal/MWh

Gallons

<0

>400

<0

>30 billion

Source: Newmark et al., 2010


2050 scenario breakdowns by generation technology

Generation is dominated by fossil generation (renewables represent a modest 25% of portfolio)

Renewables responsible for only ~10% of water consumption

Wind

Solar-CSP

Solar-PV

Biopower

Geothermal

Hydro

Coal

Gas

Co-fire

Nuclear

Electricity Generation

Wind

Solar-CSP

Solar-PV

Biopower

Geothermal

Hydro

Coal

Gas

Co-fire

Nuclear

Water Consumption



Biopower 2050: a local phenomenon, with relatively minor water implications

Relatively low impact, except in NE, NW

% Generation % Power sector water consumed

Total water consumed

<0%

>50%

<0%

>50%

Gallons

<0

>1 Billion



CSP 2050: deployed primarily in the SW*

36

CSP Percent of Total Generation

<0%

>25%

Wet-cooled

Gallons

<0

>50 Billion

Dry-cooled

Gallons

<0

>50 Billion

Gallons

<0

>50 Billion

Hybrid-cooled



CSP 2050: Cooling technology can affect water needs

CSP Percent of Total Generation

CSP using dry cooling can result in a relatively minor proportion of power sector water consumption overall

<0%

>25%

<0

>50

Wet-cooled

% Consumption

<0

>50

Dry-cooled

% Consumption



Wind 2050: strong midwest focus*

Significant wind deployment is anticipated

Water requirements are negligible;Opportunities exist for significant

avoided water use, especially in the midwest

*Note high concentrations over the Ogallala aquifer

GWh

<0

>1000

<0%

>50%

% Generation



If 25% of coal plants implement carbon capture*, water consumption is expected to increase

*using current technologies

At a penetration of 25%, carbon capture increases national water consumption by 18%

% Increase

<0%

>25%



What have we learned?

Scenario analyses such as these suggest how water demands by the power sector may evolve.- Refinements and specific studies can provide additional detail

Technology choices make a difference- Examples: wet vs. dry cooling for CSP, CCS impacts

Regional aspects are important

Critical next steps: linking results to water availability

NOTE: This assessment does not take potential climate change impacts into consideration


The Times They Are a-Changing…

Energy resources

– Increasing global competition and volatility, energy security issues

– New resources needed and deployed:

conventional, unconventional and renewable

Water resources

– Increasing demands, management challenges

– New resources needed:

conventional and unconventional

Climate change/policy change

– Increasing convergence of political and public opinion

– Observable changes, clearer delineation of risks

– Emerging CO2 markets, finance/insurance interest

– Already driving actions

Sustainable options are desired

Courtesy ErgoExergy

These result in tremendous challenges and opportunities!

Ross Dam


Opportunities exist for technology innovation to move us beyond current approaches

“Insanity is

doing the same thing over

and over again

and expecting different

results.”

--Albert Einstein

www.nrel.gov

Or contact Robin [email protected]

Special ThanksOffice of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Department of Energy (DOE),

the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), Department of the Interior (DOI), Matt Mowers, Donna Heimiller, Nate Blair (NREL)

Documents

Water Implications of Advanced Energy Choices ...The dominant energy trends are increased fuel use and increased CO 2 emissions Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil (feedstock) Oil Coal Wood 0 1000