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Water Diplomacy: A Networked Approach to Understanding, Measuring and Managing Water Security
Shafik Islam, Tufts University Larry Susskind, MIT
Water Security, Risk and Society: Oxford , April 17, 2012
Water Diplomacy: A Networked Approach to Understanding, Measuring and Managing Water Security
Shafik Islam, Tufts University Larry Susskind, MIT
Water Security, Risk and Society: Oxford , April 17, 2012
SIMPLE COMPLICATED
COMPLEX
Three Views: A Synthesis Water Network: A Framework to Conceptualize Water Security
“The search for scientific basis for confronting problems of social policy is bound to fail “
Rittel and Webber, Policy Science 1973
“Complex System is neither sufficiently described by quantum mechanics nor by classical physics”
Kauffman 1992
“You can't take politics out of analysis.“ Stone 1988
Water Network: A Framework
• Water is not a FIXED but a FLEXIBLE Resource
• Water Networks are OPEN and Continuously CHANGING • Uncertainty, Variability, Nonlinearity, and Feedback are NOT EXTERNAL
• Joint Fact Finding, Adaptive, and Non-Zero Sum approaches are essential to RESOLVE real world water problems
A “Virtual” Water Network: Water is a Flexible Resource !
A Global Virtual Water Trade Network: Water is a Flexible Resource !!Suweis et al (2011; Geophy Res Lett) !
Red arrows indicate a negative relationship (i.e increasing stress or decreasing the affected variable); Green arrows indicate a positive (increasing) relationship with an affected variable. The hexagons represent variables of strategic interest.
Indus Water Treaty: Baglihar Dam Network Representation !
• Particle : inanimate object; Microstate and Macrostate • People: Decision making object; Feedback (internal and external) • Politics (motives and reasons)
P3 to S3: Scarcity, Security and
Sovergnity
Properties of Complex Systems and Water Security:!
P3: Particle, People and Politics!! !
Indus River System!A Boundary Crossing Coupled Natural and Human System!
!Domains Scales Levels
Watershed Problem-shed Policy-shed
Indus River System!A Boundary Crossing Coupled Natural and Human System!
!
Theory
Practice
