1

Washington State Population and Employment Data2010-2030

WACTC Accountability and Allocation Task ForceSeptember 2013

Summary and Implications

2

State/regional population trends and projections for community and technical college participation:

HighlightsKey college age populations (15-44 years) will increase 12%

between 2011 and 2030. 15-19 year olds will grow by 8%, while 20-44 year olds will increase by 13%. Population growth will be smaller than what occurred in the preceding 20 year period (1991-2010) with marked differences in the growth within age groups.

If current college participation rates are maintained, population growth will mean 10% growth in state and Running Start enrollments by 2030, substantially less growth than occurred between 1991-2010.

There are regional differences for population growth, educational attainment, race/ethnicity, and limited English.

Future skill requirements needed for employment will demand substantial growth in long certificates and 2 year degrees.

3

Population change in the coming 20 years will be smaller than the previous 20 years.

15-19 Years 20-44 Years 15-44 Years

45%

11%15%

8%13% 12%

Population Change 1991-2010 and 2011-2030

1991-2010 2011-2030

4

High school graduating classes will be smaller than 2010 peak until 2027, when they reach a new peak

5

Eight sub-state regions are used to show disaggregated state data

Central & East King Northwest Pierce Snohomish South Sound Southwest SpokaneAdams King Clallam Pierce Snohomish Grays Harbor Clark FerryAsotin Island Lewis Cowlitz Lincoln

Benton Jefferson Pacific Skamania Pend Oreille

Chelan Kitsap Thurston Wahkiakum SpokaneColumbia Mason Stevens

Douglas San Juan WhitmanFranklin Skagit

Garfield WhatcomGrantKittitasKlickitat

Okanogan

Walla WallaYakima

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If current participation rates are maintained, CTC headcount will increase 10% over next 20 years, about half the % increase during preceding twenty years

Central & East King Northwest Pierce Snohomish South Sound Southwest Spokane Washington State

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

5,9118,134

3,119 2,815 3,7341,961 2,836

1,297

29,80618%

9% 9%8%

11% 11%12%

5%

10%

Total Headcount Enrollment Growth to 2030 if 2012-13 Participation Rates Are Maintained

Total Headcount Growth Ages 15-65 % Growth

7

Student headcount growth due to population changes by age will vary within regions

Central & East

King Northwest Pierce Snohomish South Sound

Southwest Spokane

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Headcount Growth (State + Running Start) per Region if 2013 Participation Rates Are Maintained to 2030

15-19 20-24 25-44 45-64 65+

8

Washingtonians of color are in higher proportions in the central and east regions, King, Snohomish and Pierce counties

Centra

l & East

Northwest

Southwest

South Sound

Spokane

King

Snohomish

Pierce

Washington St

ate0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Population of Color 15-44 Years2010 Census

Black/African American Native American Asian Pacific Islander Two or More Races Hispanic

9

64% of Washingtonians 18-44 years have less than an associate degree

CENTRAL & EAST NORTHWEST SOUTHWEST SPOKANE KING PIERCE SNOHOMISH SOUTH SOUND WASHINGTON STATE

25%

12% 13%8% 9%

12% 11% 12% 12%

28% 27% 28% 25%

17%

30% 27% 28%24%25%

32% 31%34%

23%30% 28% 30% 28%

22%

29% 29%33%

51%

28%

34%29%

36%

Educational Attainment Populations 18-44 Years

Less than HS HSSome College,No Degree Associate Degree or Higher

10

Adults with limited English are most heavily concentrated in the central and east regions, King and Snohomish counties

Centra

l and Ea

st

Northwest

Southwest

South So

und

Spoka

neKing

Snohomish

Pierce

16%

4%6%

4%3%

12%9%

6%

% Regional Population 18-64"Speaks English Less Than Very Well"

Statewide-9%

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To meet demand for sub-baccalaureate workers (prof tech and academic transfers who go directly to work) , CTCs will have to complete 45,000 to 52,200 students every year from 2016 to 2021. This completion target increases substantially in 2025 and again in 2030.

2016-21* 2025** 2030**

Total Annual Completions Needed for Post Secondary 102,184 – 125,046 146,000 174,000

Mid-level Completions Needed 54,322 – 63,011 75,000 90,000

Total CTC System Completions 45,087- 52,229 63,000 75,000

Growth over 2016 average of range29% 53%

*This is from the upcoming Skilled and Educated Workforce (Joint Report). The low range is the entry education level and the high is the competitive education level.**Extrapolated by SBCTC staff from 2021 going forward.

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• Much slower enrollment growth, especially among new high school graduates. Increasing competition for young adult students, including with universities?

• Most growth by people of color and 35-44 year olds. Impact on outreach and access strategies?

• Growing gap between employment demand and CTC supply (10% enrollment growth, 53% employment growth). Can’t meet economic demand with population growth. Improve access for placebound, working adults without college credentials, basic skills needs?

• Greatest growth needed in basic skills and workforce training. Impact on mission mix and funding?

• More older students. Focus on acceleration and competencies?• Focus on retention and student completions?• Enrollment accountability or student achievement accountability?

Some Implications