Share of Regional Jobs 2005 and 2030

DC Core

Mixed Use Centers

Employment Centers

Suburban Employment Centers

Emerging Employment Centers

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2005 2030

Year

Perc

en

t

Center Classifications

and Projections

Average Job Density 2005 and 2030

DC Core

Mixed Use Centers

Employment Centers

Suburban Employment Centers

Emerging Employment Centers

Tysons Corner - COG

Tysons Corner - Pushing the Envelope

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2005 2030

Year

Jo

bs/A

cre

2020 Smart Growth “Compass”

Treasure Valley Futures (Trends )

2000 2020 Compass

2020TVF

Metro 84% 83% 60%

Small Cities 5% 4% 7%

Rural

Counties

11% 12% 33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Off

ice

Sp

ac

e

wit

hin

Se

cti

on

s o

f M

etr

o A

rea

s

In Downtown In Secondary Downtowns In Edge Cities In Edgeless Areas

Core dominated Balanced Dispersed Edgeless

Source: Lang, Edgeless Cities Brookings, October 2003

Source: Lang, 2003, Edgeless Cities

11

– Regions grow around multi-dimensional regional centers

– Employment, education, civic, and recreation combine to serve

the region’s population and economic activity

– 35% to 40% of regional employment locates in defined

employment core

– These are the places that benefit most from mobility connectivity

– Minimum Core Size (Total Jobs): 15,000

– Average Core Size (Total Jobs): 50,900

– Minimum # of Jobs per Acre (exceptions include airports,

catalysts and universities with lots of open space):2

– Average # of Jobs per Acre 15.3

– Minimum Core Size (Total Jobs): 5,000

– Average Core Size (Total Jobs): 22,400

– Minimum # of Jobs per Acre (exceptions include airports,

catalysts and universities with lots of open space):2

– Average # of Jobs per Acre 7.4

Source: RCLCo

0123456789

1011121314151617181920

100 300 500 700 900 1,100 1,300 1,500 1,700 1,900 2,100 2,300 2,500 2,700 2,900

Nu

mb

er

of E

co

no

mic

Co

res

Employment (1,000's)

Denver Philadelphia Cincinatti DetroitHouston Nashville Atlanta ChattanoogaRaleigh-Durham Minneapolis-St. Paul Salt Lake City CharlestonPhoenix Central FL 2009 Tampa-St. Pete SarasotaSan Diego 2008

Number of Employment Cores Relative to

Total Employment

Selected Metropolitan Areas

Source: RCLCO; SANDAG; Moody’s Economy.com; BLS

R2

= 0.81

10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000

Metropolitan Area (Predicted/Actual)

(Predicted/Actual)

(Predicted/Actual)

(Predicted/Actual)

(Predicted/Actual)

Cleveland 8/9 9/12 12/15 16/19 29/13

Indianapolis 11/11 14/12 19/16 29/18 62/22

Portland 10/11 12/11 15/16 20/21 34/35

St. Louis 10/10 12/10 15/13 20/18 34/28

Source: Bogart (2006)

RCLCo, 2011

Source: RCLCO

Percent Difference in Density from Trend for 62 ScenariosPercent Difference in VMT from Trend for 62 Scenarios

Source: Bartholomew and Ewing, Land Use-Transportation Scenarios and Future

Vehicle Travel and Land Consumption, JAPA Winter 2009

15% higher

San Diego region

0.63

-24.8%

1.81

-8.6%

.047

-13.3%

0.78 1.51

-23.5%

-9.0%

MASTER PLAN SCENARIO

.047 2.20

1.88

0.60

1.03

BALANCED LU SCENARIO

Differences in Jobs/Housing Ratio in 2050 and Changes in VMT

Source: Bartholomew, Ewing etc., 2010

1. Calculate standard ITE trip generation for site components

2. Define LUs & distances between each

3. Estimate unconstrained internal capture rates for all LU pairs on site

4. Calculate balanced internal trips between LU pairs

5. Calculate overall internal capture for site

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Downtown

infill

Urban infill Suburban

infill

MXD large MXD medium

size

MXD small

Pe

rce

nt

Re

du

cti

on

Source: PB based on research review, 2009

Notes: MXD large is more than 300K sf of non-res. uses; MXD medium is 100-300K sf of non-res. MXD small is less than 100K sf. of non-res.. Ranges reflect daily capture; peak capture, especially PM, are higher

– Retail, Office, Restaurant and Residential Uses present; lower if have 2 or 3 of these; hotels and cinemas a plus

– Walk distances between primary uses is between 600 and 1000 feet

– Project is large

– Project is isolated (limited competition)

– Ratio of Office plus Commercial Uses increases over 80 sf/hh