WARNING THIS PRESENTATION CONTAINS DETAILED DESCRIPTIONS OF FIGHTS, RAPES, AND ROAD ACCIDENTS

WARNING

THIS PRESENTATION CONTAINS DETAILED

DESCRIPTIONS OF FIGHTS, RAPES, AND ROAD

ACCIDENTS

Why you always wanted to devote your career to sequence analysis,

but never fully realised it until today

David Clarke

School of PsychologyUniversity of Nottingham

Research students & new researchersConsider this approach for your thesis. It may give you new ways to answer your question, or new questions that cannot be answered with other methods. I am happy to help.

Established researchers Do you want to collaborate on projects where this approach can add a new dimension?

The rationale

Of all truths relating to phenomena, the most valuable to us are those which relate to the order of their succession. On a knowledge of these is founded every reasonable anticipation of future facts, and whatever power we possess of influencing those facts to our advantage.

John Stuart Mill, 1851

Motor Skill Model

Perception

Translation

Motorresponses

Changes in outside world

Motivation,goal

SOCIAL SKILL

INDIVIDUAL PSYCHOLOGY

I O

Non-

? ?

SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY

'

Sequence analysis can go where experiments cannot…

news, biography, case-study, history, careers, relationships, wars - any area where the ‘causes’ cannot be manipulated for one reason or another.

Problems as ‘Game Trees’

to

time

Past Future

Basic procedure

Time

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7

a j p x b

Discrete Event, Continuous Time

a j p x b


a a p q r

Discrete Event, Fixed Time

a j p x b


a a p q r

Discrete Event, Fixed Time

p j a q r z a c i

Discontinuous Event, Event Timei.e. Pure (Mere?) Sequence

Stream of events through time

‘Parsing’ or unitising(Special concepts and

techniques apply)

a j p i ax

Classification

(Crucial step - special concepts and techniques apply)

a j p i ax

aj transitionjp transition

a j p i ax

a

b

c

d

.

.

.

.z

a b c d . . . . . . . . . . z SEQUITURS

ANTECEDENTS

b c

• Contingency test (eg 2) shows rows and columns interact statistically, so there is a non-random sequence here.

• Significantly over-represented transitions can be picked out, and presented in a flow diagram.

• Contingency test (eg 2) shows rows and columns interact statistically, so there is a non-random sequence here.

A

B

C

D

A few examples

SEQUENCE ANALYSIS OF COURTSHIP BEHAVIOR

IN THE DIMORPHIC JUMPING SPIDER MAEVIA

INCLEMENS(ARANEAE, SALTICIDAE)

START

END

Attracted

Responsible

Fulfilled

Confident

Content

Close

Accepted

Trusting

Ashamed

Angry

Restless

Passive

Anxious

Rejected

Lonely

Confused

APPLICATIONS INCLUDE

• Road accidents

• Violent incidents

• Family breakdown

• Human-computer interaction

• Escaping from fires

• Military operations

• Economic forecasting

• Restorative justice

• School disruption

• Anorexia nervosa

• Rape & sexual assault

• Mining safety

• Language acquisition

• Train & plane crashes

• Depression

• Voice disorders

• Stress

• Counselling

• Eye disease

• Occupational selection

• Automatic classification

• Drug abuse

But then the real fun starts …

Knots in chains

The problem of ‘higher order’ sequences

A-B-C

A-B-D

(A-B, B-C, B-D)

A B

C

D

A

B

C

DE

A-B-CD-B-E

(A-B, B-C, D-B, B-E)

A-B-CD-B-E

A-B-E - wrongD-B-C - wrong

A

B

C

DE

A-B-CD-B-E

A-B-C-D * E-B-C-F * G-H-C-I * J-H-C-K(AB, BC, CD, EB, CF, GH, HC, CI, JH, CK)

A

B

C

D

E F

G HI

JK

Gives 4 correct sequences and 12 others besides: ABCF, ABCI, ABCK, etc, etc.

A

B

C

D

E F

G

H

I

JK

A-B-C-D * E-B-C-F * G-H-C-I * J-H-C-K

ZERO ORDER

Days to is for they have proposed I the it material of are its go studies the our of the following not over situation if the greater.

FIRST ORDER

Goes down here is not large feet are the happy days and so what is dead weight that many were constructed the channel was.

THIRD ORDER

We are going to see him is not correct to chuckle loudly and depart for home.

George Miller, 1951

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Training Data

Mean

Entropy

(bits per

symbol)

Order

HOMOGENEITYThe probabilities which link events are the same in different sequences

STATIONARITYThe probabilities which link events are constant - they do not ‘drift’ over time

Detailed examples

Pub fights

Schematic basis for the Logical Pathway Model.

The simplified forward empirical pathway map (cut-off pf = .15). All numbers in parentheses following an event refer to the percentage of the total number of incidents that involved that event.

The logical pathway model for the reported violent incidents.

Time-interval analysis(Log-survivor function analysis)

1 2 3 40

%Intervals

>T

100

T

1 2 3 40

%Intervals

>T

Log %Intervals

>T

100

T

T

1 2 3 40

Clumped Over-spaced Bursts & Pauses

%Intervals

>T

Log %Intervals

>T

100

T

T

The log percentage survival without reoccurrence for initial incidents over a period

of 26 weeks.

The log percentage survival without reoccurrence for initial incidents over a period of 15 days.

Rape

The incident has to be divided into ‘blocks’ or phases to avoid ‘looping’, caused by common recurring events

• • • X • • X • • • • • • X • • • • • • • • • • • X • X

• • • X • • X • • • • • • X • • • • • • • • • • • X • X

X

Phase DescriptionA Events leading up to the victim being alerted to the offender.B Events between the victim being alerted to the offender and the offender making

first physical contact with the victim.C Events between first physical contact and penetration occurring (penetration was

defined as digital, genital or oral).D Events between first penetration and last withdrawal.E Events between last withdrawal and when the offender last contacts the victim

physically.F Events between last physical contact and the last sighting of the offender (also

included hearing the offender leave the scene).G Events between the offender escaping and the end of the statement.

0.25<p<0.33 0.33<p<0.5 0.5<p<0.75 0.75<p<1.00

Victimengages in

own behaviour

Victimfeels/sensessomeone inthe vicinity

Victim isalerted to

the offender

Victim hearsa (unusual)

noise

Victimignores the

noise ordisturbance

VB6

START

END

Bedroom rapes, all cases, until victim notices offender.

0.25<p<0.33 0.33<p<0.5 0.5<p<0.75 0.75<p<1.00

Offender isverbally

aggressive

Victimconfronted by

offender

Victimspots aweapon

Victim isalerted toOffender

Victim isscared

Offender gainsphysicalcontrol

Victimscreams

Offenderapproaches

victim

Victimattempts to

escape

Victim fallsover

involuntary

Offenderengages in an

aggressivephysical attack

Single bedroom rapes, from victim’s first awareness of offender until first physical contact

0.25<p<0.33 0.33<p<0.5 0.5<p<0.75 0.75<p<1.00

Offenderpulls atvictimsclothing

Offenderfeels/gropes

victim

Offenderundresses the

victimaggressively

Offendercontrols thevictim witha weapon

Offenderattempts to

penetrate thevictim genitally

Offenderdemands the

victim removesan item ofclothing

Offenderverbally

controls thevictim

aggressively

Victimscreams

Offenderreplies

aggressively

Offenderpositions himself

sexually

Offenderpenetratesthe victimgenitally

Offendermoves

close to thevictim

VictimResists

Offenderphysically

controls thevictim

Offenderreassuresthe victim

Victimasks the

offender aquestion

Offenderdemand s

victim movesto a location

Victimcomplies

Victim isscared

Single bedroom rapes, from first physical contact until first penetration

0.25<p<0.33 0.33<p<0.5 0.5<p<0.75 0.75<p<1.00

Offender asks apersonalquestion

Victim repliesabout the situation

they are in.e.g. alone

Offenderenquiresabout thesituation

Victim replies toa personalquestion

e.g. her name

Offenderasks for an

objecte.g. money

Victimdeclares

situational facte.g. no money

Offenderexpresseshow he is

feeling

Victimasks the

offender aquestion

Victimprovides an

explanation inresponse to a

question

Multiple bedroom rapes, from first physical contact until first penetration - speech

0.25<p<0.33 0.33<p<0.5 0.5<p<0.75 0.75<p<1.00

Offenderpulls atvictimsclothing

Offender kissesthe victim

Offender positionshimself sexually

Offendertouches/feelsthe victims

body

Offendermoves closerto the victim

Offenderundresseshimself

Offenderpositions the

victim sexually


Multiple bedroom rapes, from first physical contact until first penetration - sexual behaviour

0.25<p<0.33 0.33<p<0.5 0.5<p<0.75 0.75<p<1.00

Offender makesa sexual

statement aboutthe victim

OG14

Offenderdemands that thevictim moves to a

particularlocation

Offenderwithdrawssexually

Offendermoves

away fromthe victim

Offenderpositions the

victim sexually

Victim makesa statementabout thesituation

Offenderphysically

controls thevictim

END

Multiple bedroom rapes, from first penetration until last withdrawal—control and reorientation

0.25<p<0.33 0.33<p<0.5 0.5<p<0.75 0.75<p<1.00

Offenderattempts to kiss

the victim

Victim isscared

Offenderstimulates the

victim genitally

Offenderengages incunnilingus

Victimresists theoffender

VC2

Victim is renderedphysicallyimmobile

Offenderphysically forces

the victim tomanipulate his

genitals


Offenderpositionshimselfsexually

Multiple bedroom rapes, from first penetration until last withdrawal—sexual behaviour

Road accidents

Genetic algorithms etc...

Example rules

(PULLOVER | (VEHICLE2 < 2.88))(FAILSTN > (TYPE > WEATHER))

Meaning of rules

The right-turner changes lane fromleft to right prior to the turningmanoeuvre

ORthe colliding vehicle has lessthan four wheels

The Turner fails to notice a vehicleor pedestrian

ANDthe Turner is turning off alarger roadORthe Turner is turning onto alarger road in poor weather

Accuracy of rule pair

Rule Status Injury Damage-only

Total

Both True 9 (82%) 2 11Mixed 11 (48%) 12 23

Both False 8 (19%) 35 43

All cases 28 (36%) 49 77

2 = 16.99, df = 2, p < 0.001

Season is Winter ?

Fails to notice other

road user ?

Complex junction ?

Injurious 10 : 7

Injurious

5 : 3

Minor

7 : 42

Minor 0 : 4

Yes (12)No (78)

Yes (21)No (57)

Yes (17)No (4) Yes (8) No (49)

Injurious 10:2

Collider on two wheels

or on foot?

The ‘structured judgement’ method...

Pathways from problem descriptions to generalised explanations and to intervention

Single case Multiple cases

Description (a) Description (A)

Explanation (b) Explanation (B)

Intervention (c) Intervention (C)











Data Entry Screen (a)

A BGrade of info.

Independent WitnessesVehicles ExaminedSketch MapPhotographsLicence Records

SlightSeverity

9/12/97Date

TuesdayDay

18:15Time 24hrs

A classRoad Type

30Speed Limit

RuralUrban

Area

Darkness, streetlamps litLighting

1- Yamaha RXS1002- Peugeot 405

Types of Vehicles

yes, bothDrivers Familiar ?

N/APillion age,sex

2- DWDC, failure to reportan accident

Charges

It was early in the evening on a damp night in Winter. It was dark andstreetlamps were lit. It had been raining lightly for between five and tenminutes. The rider (M,26) of a small Yamaha motorcycle (1) was travellingalong a busy and wide urban A road with a 30mph limit. The road was wideenough for two lines of traffic in queues, and traffic was moving very slowly.Rider 1 travelled through some traffic lights on green at a crossroads, andwas almost immediately confronted by stationary queuing traffic on the lefthand side of the road ahead. He also saw that there was no traffic comingfrom the other direction, as this had stopped for a set of red lights around200 yards distant. Rider 1 elected to use the opposite carriageway to

Prose Account

Map

Minimum Set of Explanations

noneAvoiding Action Attempted

Police: “Why didn’t you see the bike?”

Driver 2: “I didn’t expect to see anything - it was the oncoming traffic’s lane.”

Police: “Did you check your wing mirrors?”

Comments / Quotes/Special Factors

Primary blame Driver/Rider 2

12345678

910111213141516

1718192021222324

252627282930

CM Rider 1 12345678

910111213141516

1718192021222324

252627282930

CM Other

26Rider 1 Age

26Driver/Rider 2 Age

Owner riderVehicle 1 Owner

T JunctionCrossroadsTraffic LightsL/H BendR/H BendRoundaboutDual carriageway

HillcrestDipSliproadOther…

Road Features

NonePillion?

M F

M F

OvertakingViolation / Error type

N/A

PF CF1 CF2 CF3 CF4

Active Passive

N/A

Turns Shunts

Alc. Level

Test Pass Date

98Motorcycle cc

FullLicence Type

yesno

DOB Verified?

0Years STP

?Days STP

Rural Bend Errors Shunt errors

Helmet (BSS Approved)Visor upVisor downFullOpenJacket

TrousersBootsDaytime lightsReflective Clothing

BHP

n/kLength of Ownership

Purpose of Journey Other Riders?

PresentSpeed cameras/Police presence

yesFiltering?

Known Modifications?

DampWeather

DampRoad Conditions

PresentSpecial Road Conditions/Environment

TraditionalMotorcycle Category

It was early in the evening on a damp night in Winter. It was dark and streetlamps were lit. It had been raining lightly for between five and ten minutes. The rider (M,26) of a small Yamaha motorcycle (1) was travelling along a busy and wide urban A road with a 30mph limit. The road was wide enough for two lines of traffic in queues, and traffic was moving very slowly. Rider 1 travelled through some traffic lights on green at a crossroads, and was almost immediately confronted by stationary queuing traffic on the left hand side of the road ahead. He also saw that there was no traffic coming from the other direction, as this had stopped for a set of red lights around 200 yards distant. Rider 1 elected to use the opposite carriageway to overtake the queuing traffic ahead, and pulled out onto the offside to do this, passing at a speed of about 10mph. He started passing the traffic and was about to overtake a Peugeot 405 (2) that was queuing, when its driver (M,26), decided that he would U turn into a layby on the opposite side to pick up some chips from a shop there. His car was very nearly stationary, and although he looked in his rear view mirror, he did not check his offside door mirror or glance over his shoulder to check his blind spot. In addition, he only indicated his intention to turn once he’d already started to do so. The motorcycle rider had no chance to avoid a collision, ran into the driver’s side door of the car and was knocked off his machine, sustaining minor injuries.

Driver 2 claimed that he had not looked in his side mirror as he thought that the opposing lane was clear, and hadn’t considered that it might be used for overtaking purposes by any vehicle behind him. He was charged with driving without due care and attention, and failing to report an accident; he’d not reported it to the police because he thought the motorcyclist wasn’t badly injured. The results of these charges were not recorded.

Prose Account

Map

Data Entry Screen (b)

A BGrade of info.

Independent Witnesses

Vehicles Examined

Sketch Map

Photographs

Licence Records

SlightSeverity

9/12/97Date

TuesdayDay

18:15Time 24hrs

A classRoad Type

30Speed Limit

Rural

Urban

Area

Darkness, streetlamps litLighting

1- Yamaha RXS100

2- Peugeot 405

Types of Vehicles

yes, bothDrivers Familiar ?

N/APillion age,sex

2- DWDC, failure to report

an accident

Charges

It was early in the evening on a damp night in Winter. It was dark and

streetlamps were lit. It had been raining lightly for between five and ten

minutes. The rider (M,26) of a small Yamaha motorcycle (1) was travelling

along a busy and wide urban A road with a 30mph limit. The road was wide

enough for two lines of traffic in queues, and traffic was moving very slowly.

Rider 1 travelled through some traffic lights on green at a crossroads, and

was almost immediately confronted by stationary queuing traffic on the left

hand side of the road ahead. He also saw that there was no traffic coming

from the other direction, as this had stopped for a set of red lights around

200 yards distant. Rider 1 elected to use the opposite carriageway to

Prose Account

Map

Driver 2:

C2.1 Poor observation; didn’t look in relevant direction (rear offside)

C3 No signalling

Minimum Set of Explanations

noneAvoiding Action Attempted

Police: “Why didn’t you see the bike?”

Driver 2: “I didn’t expect to see anything - it was the oncoming traffic’s lane.”

Police: “Did you check your wing mirrors?”

Comments / Quotes/

Special Factors

Primary blameDriver/Rider 2

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

CM Rider 1 1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

CM Other

26Rider 1 Age

26Driver/Rider 2 Age

Owner riderVehicle 1 Owner

T Junction

Crossroads

Traffic Lights

L/H Bend

R/H Bend

Roundabout

Dual carriageway

Hillcrest

Dip

Sliproad

Other…

Road Features

NonePillion?

M F

M F

OvertakingViolation / Error type

N/A

5PF 14ACF1 9ACF2 CF3 CF4

Active Passive

N/A

Turns Shunts

N/AAlc. Level

Test Pass Date

98Motorcycle cc

FullLicence Type

yes

no

DOB Verified?

0Years STP

?Days STP

Rural Bend Errors Shunt errors

Helmet (BSS Approved)

Visor up

Visor down

Full

Open

Jacket

Trousers

Boots

Daytime lights

Reflective Clothing

BHP

n/kLength of Ownership

WorkPurpose of Journey AloneOther Riders?

PresentSpeed cameras/

Police presenceyesFiltering?

Known Modifications?

DampWeather

DampRoad Conditions

PresentSpecial Road

Conditions/Environment

TraditionalMotorcycle Category

3.3 Initial typology of overtaking

The next stage in the analysis was the construction of a typology of 10 types of

overtaking accidents based on vehicle manoeuvres:

**

Type 1 A vehicle collides with a vehicle it is overtaking as that vehicle turns right

Type 2 A head on collision with a vehicle travelling in the opposite direction

Type 3 Side swiping a vehicle which is being overtaken

Type 4 Hitting a vehicle either in front or behind when returning to a gap after

overtaking

Type 5 Going out of control after returning to the nearside following an overtake

Type 5.1 Going out of control while carrying out the overtake

Type 6 An overtaker collides with a vehicle making a turning or crossing movement

at a junction

Type 7 A vehicle overtaking on the nearside (undertaking) hits another

Type 8 Resulting from avoiding action following another driver’s risky overtaking

manoeuvre

Type 0 Unclassifiable/miscellaneous

Table 9 : Top 10 effective countermeasures for inexperienced drivers at fault

Measure Frequency % of cases

Avoid overtaking a vehicle already travelling at or

near the speed limit

42 29.8

Look specifically for signs of junctions ahead when

about to overtake

42 29.8

Avoid overtaking when approaching a bend, even if

the road appears clear

32 22.7

Look specifically at the indicators of vehicles about to

be overtaken

31 21.9

Consider why a vehicle ahead is slowing down ; could

it be about to turn ?

28 19.9

Be realistic in the assessment of the time needed to

pass vehicles ahead, especially lorries

21 14.9

Avoid overtaking against a solid white line, even if

the road ahead appears clear

16 11.3

Avoid locking wheels by combined steering and

heavy braking, especially if the road is damp

14 9.9

Look specifically for dips and hill crests in the road

ahead that could be obscuring vehicles

13 9.2

Avoid returning abruptly to the nearside following an

overtake

13 9.2

Accidents at night with young drivers often aren’t a result of a lack of light, but are a result of voluntary risk taking (or ‘attitudes’).

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Hour (24hrs)

% proportion

Excess speed

Reckless

Excess alcohol

Risky Overtaking

Deliberate Close Following

Light Jumping

TWOC

16 12 18 24

Motorcycle riders are seldom to blame in car v. motorcycle accidents at junctions. The typical fault is a driver failing to see an approaching motorcycle which is in plain view.

A driver fails to see a motorcyclist in a ROWV accident

It was early in the afternoon on a fine Spring day. The rider (M,44) of a Honda CBR1000 motorcycle was travelling along an unclassified urban road at around the 30mph limit. According to witnesses, he was not going above the speed limit and was displaying daytime lights. As he approached a junction ahead on the offside, he could see a Vauxhall Astra (2), driven by (F,63) waiting to turn right at the give way line to travel in the same direction as him. As he got to within 20 metres of the junction mouth, the car driver began to emerge, making her right turn. The motorcyclist braked heavily and steered nearside in an effort to get his bike between the nearside kerb and the turning car before he hit it. However, he was unsuccessful in this, and he hit the nearside of the car as it turned, causing a severe injury to his right hand that required two operations and several months off work. The Astra driver claimed that she had looked left, but had simply not seen the motorcyclist, despite the fact that visibility was good and the rider was displaying lights. She was charged with driving without due care and attention.

Older drivers have a problem seeing motorcyclists at junctions (so-called ‘Looked but didn’t see’ or LBDNS accidents…

y = -3E-15x 6 + 5E-12x 5 - 3E-09x 4 + 3E-07x 3 + 5E-05x 2 - 0.0107x + 1.7563

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0 100 200 300 400 500

Age Range/Distribution(total no. of observations)

RatiosScatter Plot of LBDNSwith All Other Errors

Poly. (Scatter Plot ofLBDNS with All OtherErrors)16-20

21-25

26-30

31-35 36-40

41-45

46-50

51-55

56-60

61-65

66-70

71-75

76-80

81-85

‘Filtering’ quotes from drivers…

• Driver: “…there was nothing by rights that should have

come that side of my car.”

• Driver : “... he was on the wrong side of the road.”

• Driver : “There could be nothing coming from behind

me because the car and lorry to my rear were

stationary”

‘Matrix forecasting’

The end

Documents

WARNING THIS PRESENTATION CONTAINS DETAILED DESCRIPTIONS OF FIGHTS, RAPES, AND ROAD ACCIDENTS