WARM-UP

How are the following terms related?

Political culturePolitical socializationPolitical cleavagesPolitical ideology

POLITICAL SOCIALIZATIONPOLITICAL CLEAVAGESPOLITICAL IDEOLOGY

Chapter 7: PUBLIC OPINION

Public Opinion

How people think and feel about particular things!

Today, the federal government is running a deficit of over a trillion dollars per year.

- most people want a balanced budget

In the 1970s, the Equal Rights Amendment was not ratified.

- polls showed that most people supported it

Over the last several decades, most people have agreed that representatives and senators terms should be limited.

- congress has not approved term limits

Polling

Method used to measure public opinion

Effective/Accurate Polling- Comprehensive Questions: having a basis for forming an opinion

on/relevant- Fair Worded: not “loaded,” “emotional,” or indicating a “right”

answer.- Use of random sample - Assess sampling error (difference between results of random

samples)

What is the relationship between exit polls and the prediction of presidential election winners?

Survey upon leaving polls day of an election = very accurate!

Types of Polls

MATCHING!!

A. An unofficial poll or vote taken to determine the opinion of a group or the public on some issue

B. The use of loaded questions in a supposedly objective telephone opinion poll during a political campaign in order to bias voters against an opposing candidate.

C. An opinion poll in which the same sample, such as a small number of voters, is questioned periodically to measure shifts in opinion.

PUSH POLL STRAW POLL TRACKING POLL

Political Socialization

The process by which an individual acquires their political views, beliefs, and values

- background traits- contributing factors

Sources of Political Socialization

Family GeneticsSchool and friendsMediaReligion

Why Oprah?

Or in the case of Sarah Palin, why not?

Political Socialization Trends

Since 1950s, self-declaration of DEMOCRAT or REPUBLICAN has declined

Since the 1960s, young people have been less inclined to keep the party identification of their parents

In 2010, citizens under the age of 30 supported gay marriage 24% more than those 65+ years of age

Since 1980, women have voted more than men and tend to favor Democratic candidates

Political Socialization: True or False?

The most influential factor in the development of adolescent’s political beliefs would be family.

Children raised in Democratic households are more prone to become Republicans.

The number of self-identified independents has increased.

Peer group influence becomes an increasingly more influential factor in people’s political socialization as they grow older.

College education tends to make people more conservative.

Declining American trust in government can be traced to events like Watergate and Vietnam.

School and peers tend to provide differing views from your parents thus diversifying your political socialization.

Television has become the dominant media source of information replacing newspapers.

The process of political socialization is the same for everyone and leads to a homogenization of opinion.

Major events usually have little long term impact of political beliefs.

The more education you have the more liberal you tend to be.

As Americans age, which of the following factors decreases in its affects on the political socialization of American voters?

A. FamilyB. PeersC. Educational levelD. Economic issuesE. Mass Media

Political Cleavages

Divisions within groups of people, such as social class, race, and region that affects political views on issues and party allegiance

Factors of Political Cleavages

RegionsRaceEthnicityReligionEducationOccupationGenderAge

Factors of Political Cleavages

Social ClassBased on education, income, occupation, wealth

- working class/blue collar (tend to be liberal on economic issues and vote democratic)

- upper class/white collar(tend to be conservative on economic issues and vote

republican)

Many issues that now lead us to choose a political party affiliation and determine us as liberals or conservatives are NONECONOMIC!

- social issues: abortion, school prayer, environment, terrorism

Factors of Political Cleavages

Race and Ethnicity - different political views:

African Americans = overwhelmingly DemocraticWhites = carry majority of republican votesLatinos = complicated because of various

background nations, foreign born and/or American born

- less liberal than blacks, more liberal than Asians, but many identify with democrats

Asian Americans = ???? Projected to identify with republicans

Factors of Political Cleavages

Regions

- different regions = different natural resources, different occupational demands, different settlement patterns DIFFERENT INTERESTS!

- 1950s – 1970s white southerners became more conservative

- Obama won 50% of white vote, but only 30% white southern vote

- Since 1980, southern states = gaining seats in the House while the northern states have been shrinking.

EFFECT ON CONGRESSIONAL SEATS?!

Political Ideology

Set of consistent beliefs about what policies the government should seek, pursue, and carry out

1. Measure how frequent people use broad categories to describe their views or candidate preference

2. Measure how accurately one can predict a person’s view on an issue based off his/her view on that subject at an earlier time

Last 20 years:“conservative” = used about 37%“moderate” = used about 40%“liberal” = used about 20%

Cross Cutting Cleavages Cheat Sheet

18-35 Year olds Participate at the lowest rate Trending towards independent rather than Democratic or Liberal Low sense of political efficacy Believe stronger environmental laws, higher minimum wage, and balanced budget Dislike large government programs like Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid

36-54 Year olds Strong sense of political efficacy Political involvement increases as they age Voting patterns and political ideology more influenced by other factors

55 and older Largest growing demographic age group Participate at the highest rate Tend to vote conservatively High sense of political efficacy Strongly support governmental programs like Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid

Jews Most liberal religious group on both social and economic issues Tend to vote for liberal Democratic candidates Supporters of Civil liberties, abortion, increased domestic spending on social programs Strong sense of political efficacy

Catholics Conservative on social issues but liberal on economic ones Swing vote between Democrats and Republicans, liberals and conservatives (Slight tendency to Democrats though) Strong sense of political efficacy Huge difference in beliefs between young (liberal and slightly democratic) and old (conservative and Republican Catholics and male

and female Catholics.

Protestants Most conservative religious group on both social and economic issues More prone to voting for Republicans Strong sense of political efficacy Very conservative Protestant’s are referred to as Evangelical or Born Again Christians. These are the most conservative Protestants.

Muslims Low sense of political efficacy Generally vote Democratic, were considered a swing vote until 2001, now were aligned with Democratic Party Socially conservative but liberal on economic issues

Men More prone to vote Republican Tend to be strong supporters of the military, little support for social programs Voting patterns and beliefs impacted by other factors

Women Hold negative views on war and military intervention Positive views about social welfare, education, juvenile justice, capital punishment, and the environment Tend to vote for Democrats

Blacks Liberal Democrats Strong frustration with government and government programs Declining levels of political efficacy Support issues like affirmative action, oppose the death penalty

Whites Majority, opinions and beliefs generally divided by other factors

Latinos/Hispanics Beliefs based on country of origin: Cubans strongly Republican and conservative Puerto Ricans Republican and Conservative Mexican, Central American, Haitian, Dominican strongly Democratic and Liberal on economic issues but conservative

on social issues Swing vote, but generally Democratic, although younger Latinos are becoming more Republican

Asians Socially conservative Generally vote Democratic but not by a large margin

Northeast Most liberal Democratic section of the country Strong supporters for big government programs, liberal on social issues like homosexual rights, affirmative action, and labor unions. Declining in population Diversity due to large percentage of immigrants who settled in the region

South Strongest Republican section of the country Socially and economically conservative Support federalism and returning power to the states Religion an important factor in southern politics, generally trends towards conservative Protestantism

West Populated by former residents of other regions Strong anti-government bias, staunchly opposed to government regulation Divided region politically due to diverse ethnic make-up, geographic origin of people who move to the west, presence of large amounts

of federally owned land. With the exceptions of California, Oregon, and Washington the region is becoming more oriented towards the Republican Party.

Midwest Religiously and socially conservative, predominately Protestant Support for government programs that support farm programs Swing states, but generally Republican in lower mid-west, Democratic in upper mid-west

Sunbelt States running from Virginia-New New Mexico Population increasing due to migration and immigration Generally Republican and Conservative, though the southwest states (Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico) are swing states.

Rust Belt Old manufacturing states of New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin Population decreasing due to loss of job base Very volatile political area—swings from election to election.

Bible Belt Southern states through Texas and up through Missouri, Oklahoma, across Tennesse, and southern Virginia Tends to be republican and conservative

Bible Belt

Rust Belt

Sun Belt