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VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION MEASURES UNDER UNFCCC AND KYOTO PROTOCOL November 19-20, Budapest, Hungary. CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACT, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY ON THE EUROPEAN RESOURCE BASE. NOVÁKY BÉLA. CLIMATE CHANGE. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION MEASURES UNDER UNFCCC AND KYOTO PROTOCOL
November 19-20, Budapest, Hungary
CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACT, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY
ON THE EUROPEAN RESOURCE BASE
NOVÁKY BÉLA
CLIMATE CHANGE
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as it now evident from observations
SPM WGI
Global average temperature
Global average sea level
Northern hemisphere snow cover
Continued greenhouse gas emissions …would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21-st century
SPM WGI
Europe - mean climate
Increase in temperature in all seasons and year (A2: 2.5-5.5 °C, B2:1-4 °C)
Annual precipitation increases in N and Atlantic Europe, decreases in S and Central Europe
Seasonal change in precipitation varies from season to season and across regions
WGII Chapter 12.3
WGI Chapter 11
Europe - extreme events
Maximum temperature increases in S and C Europe much more than in N Europe
C. Europe would experience the number of hot days as currently occur in S. Europe
Increase in the intensity of daily precipitation, even for areas with a decrease in mean precipitation,
e.g. increase in short duration summer rainfall by up to 40% in Slovakia (Lapin and Hlavcova 2003)
WGII Chapter 12.3
OBSERVED CHANGES
The SPM concludes that many natural systems are being
affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increase
WGII SPM
For the first time, wide-ranging impacts of change in current
climate have been documentedWGII Chapter 12, TS WGII
Warming trend throughout Europe
• for 1901-2005 is +0,90 °C (0,086 °C/decad)
• for 1979-2005 is +0,41 °C (0,164 °C/decad)
Regionally the trend is highest in C, NE Europe, and in mountains, lowest in Mediterranean
Mean precipitation
• is increasing in most of Atlantic and N Europe
• is decreasing along Mediterranean (east)
• no significant change in west of Mediterranean
Increase in precipitation per wet dayWGII Chapter 12.2
Present
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
Unprecedented heat wave in 2003
Extreme glacier melt in the Alps
Low river flow, e.g. in the Danube river
30% reduction in gross primary production of terrestrial ecosystems
Wildfires
Excess death (about 35,000)
Cryosphere
Decrease in glacier volume and area (except some glaciers in Norway)
Paul et al. 2002
Cryosphere
Decrease in seasonal snow cover (at lower elevation) in Alps, in Slovakian mountains. No changes was observed in Bulgaria
Reductions in annual snow cover by about 1 day/year in lowland areas of C. Europe
Decrease in thickness and areal extent of permafrost in Russia. Increasing damages to infrastructure
Water
Increased runoff due to enhanced glacier melts, formation of lakes in the Alps
No significant change is detected in annual runoff in most part of Europe (Pekárová et al. 2004)
Significant trends in floods have not been detected globally (increase 27, decrease 31, and no trend 137 cases) (WGII Chapter 3)
Beaugrand et al. 2005
1000
km
Marine ecosystems Northward movement of warmer-water plankton by 10 ° latitude in NE Atlantic, retreat of colder-water plankton
Terrestrial ecosystems
Earlier leaf unfolding dates
Walther et al. 2002
Agriculture
More favourable conditions due to warmer summer in N. Europe
Olesen et al. 2006
Agriculture
In all wine regions of France wine quantities and qualities indices have increased WGII Chapter 1
Alcohol concentration of wine in Alsace
Duchéne and Schneider 2004
Human health
Increase in heat wave mortality (Mediterranean, Atlantic, Central) and decline in winter mortality
Movement of tick vectors northwards (e.g. Sweden) and to high latitude (e.g. Czech Republic)
Earlier onset and extension of season for allergic pollen (all of Europe)
The observed changes are consistent with projections of
impacts due to climate changeWGII Chapter 12, TS WGII
IMPACTS
Climate-related hazards will mostly increase, although
changes will vary geographically
WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII
SLR and increasing storminess
Temperature Precipitation
Extreme Extreme Mean
Flash floods across Europe
Winter floods in maritime regions
Rockfalls
Coastal flooding, by
2080 additional 1,6 million
people to be affected
each year
Coastal erosion
More frequent and intense drought in S
and SE Europe
Dispersal of insects
Allergenic diseases
Cold mortality declines
More frequent and intense heat waves,
increased health related risk in most
of Europe
Increasing fire and peatland fire risk in Mediterranean and in C and E Europe
Natural hazards
Change in recurrence of 100-year droughts
2020s
2070s
Climate change is likely to magnify regional differences Europe’s natural resources
and assetsWGII Chapter 12, TS WGII
Increasing ecosystem productivity
Increasing water availability, increase in hydropower (15-30%)
Decreasing ecosystem productivity, decrease
forestry system
Decreasing water availability, summer flow can decrease up to 80%,
decrease in hydropower (20-50%)
Increase in crop yield
Decrease in yield for spring-sown crops (maize, sunflower, spring wheat)
Increase yield variability due to increase of extreme weather events
Change in annual runoff
Water stress is likely to increase, as well as the number
of people living in river basin under high water stress
WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII
Water stress increases in Central and South-eastern Europe
The watershed areas under sever stress increases from 19% today to 35% by 2070
The number of additional people living under water stress conditions in region of 17 western European countries increases between 16 to 44 million
It is anticipated that Europe’s natural systems and biodiversity will be
substantially affected by climate change
WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII
Natural systems• Small glacier will disappear and larger glaciers substantially shrink
• Duration of snow cover decreases by several weeks for each °C of temperature increase in the Alps at middle elevation
• Many (lowland) permafrost areas in the Arctic disappear. Loss of permafrost in Arctic will likely cause a reduction of some types of wetlands
• Inland waters in S. Europe are likely to have lower volume and increased salinization
Ecosystems
• Sea level rise causes an loss of up to 20% coastal wetlands• In mountains the tree line shifts upward by several hundred meters • Forested area increases in North and decreases in South. The northward expansion of forests is projected to reduce current tundra areas under some scenarios • Native conifers are replaced by deciduous trees in W. and C. Europe• Along the Mediterranean many ephemeral aquatic ecosystems disappears, and permanent shrinks• Higher nutrient loadings in N may intensify the eutrophication of lakes
Biodiversity• A large percentage of the European flora is projected to become vulnerable, endangered, critically endangered or extinct by the end of 21st century
• Mountain plants community face reductions of up to 60% of species. Mountain regions may experience a lost of endemism due to invasive species
• The range of plants is very likely to expand northward and contract in S. European mountains and in Mediterranean basin
• In freshwater ecosystems, biodiversity will increase in the North and decrease in the South
• High water temperature can produce high mortality for some mammals in the Mediterranean due to increased infections
2021-2050 2051-2080
Increase
Decrease
Most amphibian (45-69%) and reptile (61-89%) species are virtually certain to expand their range if dispersal were unlimited. However, under no dispersal, the range most (>97%) species will
become smaller
Climate change will pose challenges to many
European economic sectors and it is expected to alter the
distribution of economic activityWGII Chapter 12, TS WGII
• Climate change and increase of CO2 lead to overall small increases crop productivity. Agriculture will have to cope with increased water demand for irrigation in S. Europe
• Recruitment and production of marine fishery in the North Atlantic are likely to increase
• Winter heating demand decreases, summer cooling demand increases
• Droughts and reduced runoff affect river navigation (Rhine)
• Tourism along the Mediterranean is likely to decrease in summer and increase in spring and autumn. Reductions in the ski season in mountains. In the Austrian Alps 1 °C rise leads to 4 fewer weeks of skiing days in winter
ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY
Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts which is already unavoidable due to past emissions
A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive adaptation than currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability.
There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully understood
Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability, and climate change could impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development WGII SPM
Adaptation to climate change is likely to benefit from experience gained in reactions to extreme
events, by specifically implementing proactive climate-
change risk management adaptation plans
WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII
Preventive emergency plans and warning system to avoid and minimize the risk of natural hazards (flood warning system, evacuations, health warning systems)
More economical use of natural assets (reducing water demand, reducing leaky municipal and irrigation water systems, wastewater reuse and desalinization, water price)
Land use better suitable to climate change (change in species of forest, in crop species, introducing new crops and varieties, adapted seedlings, allocation land according to its changing suitability)
Better management practices (changes in cultivars, introduction of multi-species planting into mono-species coniferous plantations)
More dynamic strategy and new sides for conservation biodiversity (protected areas, nature reserves, botanical gardens) and lessening to minimum the other human induced stresses
Structural and design processes (structural measures for flood control, water reservoirs, urban planning, housing design, re-design of energy supply system, infrastructure planning and building techniques in permafrost areas)
Modification of human behaviour (autonomous and reactive change recreation and travel behaviour, choose new forms in tourism, changes in temporal pattern of seaside tourism)
Limitations in adaptation to water stress
Cost – high investment cost for building reservoirs, high energy cost for salinization
Environmental regulation – reservoirs, intensification of ground water use
Health concerns – wastewater
The great majority of organisms and ecosystems
are likely to have difficulties in adapting to climate change
WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII
Adaptation in natural ecosystems
Low lying, geologically subsiding coasts are likely to be unable to adapt to sea level rise
No obvious climate adaptation options for tundra or alpine vegetation
Few obvious adaptation options, specific management have yet to be defined for mountain forests
AT: Increased coastal erosion and flooding; stressing of marine bio-systems and habitat loss; increased tourism pressure on coasts; greater winter storm risk and vulnerability of transport to winds
BO: Water logging; eutrophication of lakes and wetlands; increased coastal flooding and erosion; increased winter storm risk; reduced ski season; severe fires in drained peatland
TU: Thawing of permafrost; decreased tundra area; increased coastal erosion and flooding
CE: Increased frequency and magnitude of winter floods; increased variability of crop yields; increased health effects of heat waves
MT: Glaciers disappearing; reduced snow-cover period; upward shift of tree line; severe biodiversity losses; reduced ski season
ME: Reduced water availability; increased drought; severe biodiversity losses; increased forest fires; reduced summer tourism; reduced suitable cropping areas, increased energy demand in summer, reduced hydropower; increased land losses in estuaries and deltas; increased salinity and eutrophication of coastal waters
ST: Decreased crop yield; increased soil erosion; increased SLR with positive NAO; increased salinity of inland seas
Summary
Impacts are occurring now as a consequence of climate change
Future possible impacts have been identified
All regions of Europe will see negative impacts of climate change, although will also be positive effects, especially in North Europe
Negative impacts will predominant in the South. However as warming continues, negative impacts will also dominant in North Europe
Most vulnerable sectors and regions: tundra, Alpine and mediterranean-type ecosystems, low-lying coastal regions, water resources in mid-latitudes, human health in areas with low adaptive capacity
Thank you your attention