Vulnerability and adaption of agricultural

sector to climate change, NAPA+

Dr. Sumaya Ahmed Zakieldeen, Institute of Environmental Studies, U of K

& Sudanese Environment Conservation Societyzakields@yahoo.com

2/2/2010

Ministry of Agriculture Khartoum State

From the 4th assessment report (IPCC)

Based on observations and projections, IPCC AR4 concluded that climate change is occurring now.

Past emissions are estimated to involve some unavoidable warming even if atmospheric GHG concentrations remain at 2000 levels.

There are some impacts for which adaptation is the only available and appropriate response

Con... • There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully

understood.

• For developing countries, availability of resources and building

adaptive capacity are particularly important

• Adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the

projected effects of climate change, and especially not over

the long run as most impacts increase in magnitude

The scientific basis (IPCC AR4)

Climate Change and Africa: Projected Impacts on agriculture

Decrease in length of growing season, and areas suitable

for rain-fed agriculture.

Variable impacts on livestock

Reductions in fish population with increased

temperature.

The scientific basis (IPCC AR4)

Sudan is particularly concerned with impacts of climate change:

– the majority of its land is quite sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation.

– weak infrastructure– food security is mainly determined by rainfall– more than 70% of Sudan population is directly

dependant on climate-sensitive resources for their livelihoods

Vulnerability Assessment from the First National communication (Projected Impacts next 30 – 60 years)

• Agriculture and forestry:

– Shift in the agro ecological zones southward

– Shrinking in current crop production areas.

– Crop yield decline in selected stations by 29% - 71% for Sorghum (more affected than millet) and 15% - 62% for Millet

– Gum Arabic yields predicted to decline between 25% and 30% region-wide.

Water sector

– Greater water deficit is expected in years 2030

and 2060, due to a decline in projected rainfall

and an increase in the PETs from temperature

rise.

SUDAN NORMAL RAINFALL IN MM FOR THE PERIOD 1941-1970 COMPARED TO 1971-2000

ABH

ABN

AQQ

ARB

ARM

ATB

BAR

BNS

DMZ

DNG

DUM

NSR

FSH

GDF

GEN

HAL

HAS

HDB

HLG

JUB

KDG

KHA

KHW

KRM

KSL

KST

KUR

MLK

NHD

NYL

OBD

PSD

RAG

RNKRSH

SNR

SHW

SHM

SHN

TKR

TOR

UMB

WAU

WHF

WMD

NAG

PIB

MAR YEI

YAM

KAP

22.00 24.00 26.00 28.00 30.00 32.00 34.00 36.00 38.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

20.00

22.00

500 mm

200 mm

Meteorological Authority 2008

SUDAN RAINFALL COEFFICIENT OF VARIABILITY IN PERCENTAGE FOR THE PERIOD (1971-2000)

ABH

ABN

AQQ

ARB

ARM

ATB

BAR

BNS

DMZ

DNG

DUM

NSR

FSHGDF

GEN

HAL

HAS

HDB

HLG

JUB

KDG

KHA

KHW

KRM

KSL

KST

KUR

MLK

NHD

NYL

OBD

PSD

RAG

RNKRSH

SNR

SHW

SHM

SHN

TKR

TOR

UMB

WAU

WHF

WMD

NAG

MAR

PIB

8.00YAM

KAP

22.00 24.00 26.00 28.00 30.00 32.00 34.00 36.00 38.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

20.00

22.00

Source: NAPA 2007

• Partners: HCENR, UNDP, MIC, governments of Central Equatoria,

River Nile, Gedarif, South Darfour and North Kordofan states

• Goal: identify urgent and immediate activities to address climate

variability and climate change within the context of the country’s

economic development priorities.

• Focused on three sectors

• planning, awareness, capacity building, identification of adaptation

activities for implementation through LDCF.

National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)

THE FIVE ECOLOGICAL ZONES SELECTED FOR THE SUDANESE NAPA

Least Developed Countries (LDCs)

Event Occurrence Vulnerable areas Sectors

Drought Frequent North & Western Sudan (North Kordofan and Darfur), Kassala State and some parts of the rain-fed areas in central Sudan.

Agriculture, livestock,water resources and health.

Floods Frequent Areas within the River Nile basinand low areas from extreme South to far North. Mountain areas along RedSea.

Agriculture, livestock,Water resources andhealth.

Heat waves Rare Northern, central parts of Sudanbesides the Red Sea State.

Health, agriculture &livestock

Source: NAPA 2007

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Average …

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

MilletDurrahG/N

average production kg/feddan

Source: Ministry of Agriculture Nyala

RF

• Represent urgent and immediate needs of the most vulnerable groups

• Prepared through a participatory and consultative approach (government, research, universities, civil society, local and tradition leaders etc.)

• Aimed at improving the adaptive capacity of the communities affected by climate change

• Aimed at removing barriers to development caused by the impacts of climate change

NAPA projects and activities

• Severe poverty levels• Lack of income diversity• Lack of agricultural inputs• Mismanagement of resources • Over-cultivation of land• Fragile land or water resources• Poor soil fertility• Deforestation • Conflict over natural resources • Poor extension services• Displacement of communities • Poor sanitation or health services

Key non-climatic factors contributing to the vulnerability of rural communities in Sudan

– Programmes or projects (Pilot for the zones) addressing the urgent and immediate adaptation needs

– Recommendations for improving current policies to be more comprehensive and relevant to climate change

– Recommendations for improving the effectiveness of the institutional framework to integrate and implement the strategy

The components of the NAPA :

The highly ranked adaptation projects in in based on region-specific evaluation criteria

Ecological Zone Adaptation option

Desert Zone (River Nile State)

Improving sustainable agricultural practices under increasing heat-stress in the River Nile State

Semi desert Zone (North Kordofan State)

Environmental conservation and biodiversity restoration in northern Kordofan State as a coping mechanism for rangeland protection under conditions of increasing climate variability

Savannah on clayey soil (Gedarief State)

Enhancing resilience to rainfall variability through rangeland rehabilitation and water harvesting in the Butana area of Gedarif State

Savannah on sandy soil (South Darfour State)

Reducing the vulnerability of communities in drought-prone areas of southern Darfur State through improved water harvesting practices

Southern Sudan (Central Equatorial State)

Strategies to adapt to drought-induced water shortages in highly vulnerable areas in Central Equatorial State

Activities Highly in demand

• Developing a drought early warning system through the installation of rain measurement and other meteorological measurement equipment and technologies;

• Designing and constructing water harvesting systems• Extension, training and building awareness (pastoralists,

farmers, local people) • Combat desertification by a-forestation, fruit tree planting

and agro forestry• Establishment of rocky barriers to reduce wind speed and

intensification of trees planting in villages and towns and along irrigation channels

• Sand dunes fixation through planting of shelter belts and wind breaks

Con...• Rehabilitation of Gum Arabic belt• Rehabilitation of rangeland and provision of

satisfactory veterinary services• Introduction of heat and drought resistant Crop

varieties• diversification of grown crops in each season to

reduce risk of mono-cropping• enhancement of biodiversity • Introduction of renewable energy sources• Provision of revolving fund• Poverty reduction

Indigenous knowledge for coping with climate change

• Introduction of drought resistant plants by the local experience (Araak trees in El Gadaref, found suitable for agro-forestry)

• Introduction of some traditional ways of water harvest by local communities (e.g. tarras)

• Use local knowledge of the stars as EWS• Cultivation of high land or low lands based on rainy season

expectation • Development early maturing varieties• Early seeding (locally known as Tarmeel i.e. seeding in dry

sand)• etc.

Policies

• Lack of policies and strategies that guarantee food security (for both human and animals)

• Policies and strategies are not pursuing the ideal environmental utilization of natural resources

• Strategies are not targeting the increase of production

• Gaps in laws and legislations that regulate work

Institutions

• Lack of spatial cooperation and coordination at different levels despite the intersection between the different related sectors;

• Lack of stability of institutions, particularly in the water resource management sector;

• Lack of expertise related to water resource management

• Absence of an environmental protection unit at water institutions

• Lack/absence of sustained institutional capacity strengthening;

Identified successful adaptation options

Clearly stated that certain SL/EM measures could increase the

resilience of communities to climate related shocks

Showed that Adaptive capacity can improve where people have

better access to resources, market, technology, information,

social service, high level of awareness, skills, security , strong

institutions and effective organizations

AIACC (Assessment of Impact and Adaptation to Climate Change)

Locations AIACC Project

0

20

40

60

80

100

rehabilitated land

carrying capacityforage production

Before After

Productivity of natural capital before and after intervention of range land rehabilitation project

Adaptation and development

To address climate change effectively and achieve sustainable development, there is need to do development differently.

This requires not only doing development better, but also adapting development policies to take climate change into account.

As a country we need to make sure that in our activities we incorporate climate change risks and opportunities into national strategies and plans

Protection of existing development projects and programs and their beneficiaries from the impact of climate variability and change

Additional cost

Agriculture

Thank you