Fighting climate change Sudan response: the adaptation case

Sumaya Ahmed Zakieldeen, IES, U of KNagmeldin Goutbi Elhassan, HCENR

Outlines

Sudan’s climate change process

Vulnerability assessment

Adaptation

Three projects enabled Sudan to work on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation :• National communication • Capacity building, preparation of FNC (commitment) and preliminary knowledge about impact and climate change.•Funded by GEF and UNDP and government of Sudan•Sudan’s First National Communications prepared and submitted, June 2003.

Sudan’s climate change process

Sudan’s climate change processAIACC (Assessment of Impact and Adaptation to Climate

Change) http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/aiacc

One of the 24 regional studies of AIACC: Global Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in multiple regions and sectors

Partners: Higher Council for Environment and Natural Resources (HCENR) in Sudan and Stockholm Environment Institute Boston Center (SEI-Boston)

capacity building for research community and identification of adaptation options contribution to methodology development

Provided information for the IPCC 4th assessment report which covered vulnerability and adaptation in the developing countries.

Sudan’s climate change processNational Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) Partners: HCENR, UNDP, MIC, governments of

Central Equatoria, River Nile, Gedarif, South Darfour and North Kordofan states

The overall goal of the NAPA process in Sudan has been to identify urgent and immediate activities to address climate variability and climate change within the context of the country’s economic development priorities.

Focused on three sectorsplanning, awareness, capacity building,

identification of adaptation activities for implementation through LDCF.

THE FIVE ECOLOGICAL ZONES SELECTED FOR THE SUDANESE NAPA

Vulnerability assessment Vulnerability: is “The degree to which a system is

susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.

FNC (Top-down) • Vulnerable sectors Identified were:– Agricultural (rainfed) sector: Sorghum, millet and

Gum Arabic– Water sector – Human health sector: malaria

• Methods and approaches: – Climate scenario– Impacts models

Vulnerability assessment

The next 30 – 60 years: Agriculture and forestry:

Shift in the agro ecological zones southwardShrinking in current crop production areas.Crop yield decline in selected stations by 29% - 71% for Sorghum (more

affected than millet) and 5% - 62% for MilletGum Arabic yields predicted to decline between 25% and 30% region-

wide.

Water sector: Greater water deficit is expected in years 2030 and 2060 than in the

baseline, due to a decline in projected rainfall and an increase in the PETs from temperature rise.

Human health (Malaria): Increased Transmission Potential (TP) of malaria in 2030 and 2060,

particularly in winter due to higher temperatures . Greater risk of outbreak between October-December Less number of cases between April-July due to increase in temperature

beyond the maximum tolerance limits of malaria parasites Climate change may alter the current distributions and intensity of

malaria in Sudan.

Vulnerability assessment

AIACC (participatory method)

Targeted existing successful projectsAssessment indicators and sustainable livelihood

framework Word Picture:

Worst case

Best case

0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100

Poor Moderate Good very good Excellent

AdaptationAdjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm.

FNCTop-down, very general and based on experts judgementIt built capacities in areas of modelling, long term projections Highlighted potential adaptations for further assessment

AIACC Identified successful adaptation options Clearly stated that certain SL/EM measures could increase

the resilience of communities to climate related shocks Showed that Adaptive capacity can improve where people

have better access to resources, market, technology, information, social service, high level of awareness, skills, security , strong institutions and effective organizations

NAPA (stakeholder consultation and direct involvement)

NAPA projects and activities

Represent urgent and immediate needs of the most vulnerable groups

Prepared through a participatory and consultative approach (government, research, universities, civil society, local and tradition leaders etc.)

Aimed at improving the adaptive capacity of the communities affected by climate change

Aimed at removing barriers to development caused by the impacts of climate change

Key non-climatic factors contributing to the vulnerability of rural communities in Sudan

Severe poverty levelsLack of income diversityLack of agricultural inputs Mismanagement of resources Over-cultivation of land Fragile land or water resources Poor soil fertilityDeforestation Conflict over natural resources Poor extension servicesDisplacement of communities Poor sanitation or health services

The components of the NAPA :

Programmes or projects (Pilot for the zones) addressing the urgent and immediate adaptation needs

Recommendations for improving current policies to be more comprehensive and relevant to climate change

Recommendations for improving the effectiveness of the institutional framework to integrate and implement the strategy

Limitations for the NAPA implementation

Political commitment is required to implement the strategy

The awareness and knowledge among planners and decision-makers in relation to the climate change

Technical and institutional capacities and the need to strengthen them in a sustainable way,

Insufficient financial support limits the implementation of the strategy

Grassroots communities suffering from poverty and permanent health problems and therefore are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change

Lack of infrastructure, especially in the areas most affected

Examples of proposed activities in:

Water sector

-Introduction of new water harvesting/spreading techniques making use of intermediate technologies;

-Construction of dams and water storage facilities in some of water valleys, particularly in western Sudan;

Agricultural sector-Community-based forest and rangeland management and

rehabilitation;

-Drought early warning systems for disaster preparedness;

Human sector Improve community sanitation and medical services, including

capacities for diagnosis and treatment; Building of community awareness regarding preventative

measures for malaria, meningitis, and leishmaniasis;

Summary of identified NAPA activities in the five zones

www.UNFCCC.int

Examples of policy reform requiredActivation and/or establishment of state councils

for environment and natural resources, and for the coordination of related work;

Amendment of land use laws in order to be consistent with customary laws;

Examples of institutional reform requiredLack of spatial cooperation and coordination at all

levels (national, states, localities) despite the intersection between the different related sectors;

Lack of sector-specific coordination between affected sectors (water, agriculture, health)

Thank you