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GWU Personnel: Dr. J. Rene van Dorp
VCU Personnel: Dr. Jason R. W. Merrick
December, 2013
DEFINITION OF 15 WATERWAY ZONES
65
7
8
9
15
43
1
213
10
11
12
1. Buoy J2. ATBA3. WSJF4. ESJF5. Rosario6. Guemes7. Saddlebag8. Georgia Str.
9. Haro/Boun.10.PS North11.PS South12.Tacoma13.Sar/Skagit14.SJ Islands15.Islands Trt
VTRA 2010 Waterway Zones
14
VTRA 2010 – SYNOPSIS OF HIGH SCENARIO COMPARISON APPLIED TO CASE P: BASE CASE
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 1 of 24
FOCUS VESSELS TRAVEL THROUGH VTRA STUDY AREA
Maritime SystemTraffic SimulationWeather
Data
Traffic Data
Current Data
Weather Simulation
Traffic Arrivals
Simulation
1.
2.
Current Simulation
3.
TrafficRules
Required close cooperation with the USCG VTS and Puget SoundHarbor Safety Committee for data + validation
103
PerpendicularKinetic Energy
TangentialKinetic Energy
A SR 259 Collision Scenario
struck ship-velocity-displacement-hull type
collision-location-angle
striking ship-velocity-displacement-bow angle
Step 1Damage
calculation
89
Q30Situation 1 TANKER DESCRIPTION Situation 2
Strait of Juan de Fuca East Location -Inbound Direction -Laden Cargo -
1 Escort Escorts -Untethered Tethering -
INTERACTING VESSELShallow Draft Pass. Vessel Vessel Type -
Crossing the Bow Traffic Scenario -Less than 1 mile Traffic Proximity -
WATERWAY CONDITIONSMore than 0.5 mile Visibility Visibility Less than 0.5 mile Visibility
Along Vessel Wind Direction -Less than 10 knots Wind Speed -
Almost Slack Current -Along Vessel - Opposite Direction Current Direction -
More? : ____ 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ____ : More?Situation 1 is worse <====================X====================> Situation 2 is worse
Conduct Expert Judgment Elicitations via Questionnaires
Example of potential experts: USCG VTS Operators, Puget Sound Pilots, Tanker Captains and First Mates, Tug Captains and First Mates, etc.
77
A B
C D
E F
Generating AccidentScenarios:
Counting CollisionAccident Scenario’s
Counting Drift Grounding AccidentScenario’s
Counting Powered Grounding AccidentScenario’s
SNAPSHOTS OF KEY VTRA MODEL COMPONENTS
We add vessel traffic to 2010 traffic model to mimin what-if scenarios and we compare them to the base case year.
Focus Vessels: Tanker, ATB, Chem. Carrier, Oil Barge, Bulk Carrier, Container Vessel and Other Cargo Vessels
We developed a vessel traffic movement modeled largely based on VTOSS 2010 data validated using AIS 2010 data. We consider the 2010 traffic model a base case year and denote it scenario P – BASE CASE.
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 2 of 24
P – BC & HIGH TANKERSBASE CASE 2010 TRAFFIC WITH
2010CHERRY POINT 329ANACORTES 242FERNDALE 115Total Change Tank FV
TANKER CALL NUMBER HIGH-LOW ANALYSIS FROM 1998-2012
+150-191118 - 1998 : 3 111 - 2007 : -+4
LOW - YEAR: - # HIGH - YEAR: + #193 - 1998 : -136 398 - 2007 : +69184 - 1998 : -58 319 - 2007 : +77
HIGH TANKER CASE – RIGHT COLUMN
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 3 of 24
HIGH CARGO FOCUS VESSELS – RIGHT COLUMN
2010Bouy J - Georgia Strait 1159Bouy J - Puget Sound 322Puget Sound - Georgia Strait 0Total Change Bulk FV
2010Bouy J - Georgia Strait 308Bouy J - Puget Sound 766Puget Sound - Georgia Strait 222Total Change Container FV
2010Bouy J - Georgia Strait 386Bouy J - Puget Sound 252Puget Sound - Georgia Strait 226Total Change Other Cargo FV
246 - 2009 : +20 260 - 2011 : +34
OTHER CARGO TRANSIT NUMBER HIGH-LOW ANALYSIS FROM 2008-2012LOW - YEAR: - # HIGH - YEAR: + #336 - 2009 : -50 421 - 2011 : +36
258 - 2011 : +36
223 - 2009 : -85 332 - 2011 : +25
280 - 2009 : +28 255 - 2011 : +3
BULK TRANSIT NUMBER HIGH-LOW ANALYSIS FROM 2008-2012LOW - YEAR: - # HIGH - YEAR: + #1095 - 2009 : -63 1268 - 2011 : +109
0 - 2009 : +0 0 - 2011 : +0
CONTAINER TRANSIT NUMBER HIGH-LOW ANALYSIS FROM 2008-2012LOW - YEAR: - # HIGH - YEAR: + #
344 - 2009 : 22 325 - 2011 : +3
812 - 2009 : +46 807 - 2011 : +41274 - 2009 : +52
-41 +112
-2
+13 +102
+73
P – BC & HIGH TANKER AND CARGO FVBASE CASE 2010 TRAFFIC WITH HIGH TANKERS AND
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 4 of 24
EXPOSURE DEFINITIONSVESSEL TIME EXPOSURE:
TOTAL AMOUNT OF ANNUAL TIME A FOCUS VESSEL IS MOVING THROUGH THE VTRA STUDY AREA
FUEL OIL TIME EXPOSURE:TOTAL AMOUNT OF ANNUAL TIME A CUBIC METER OF FOCUS
VESSEL FUEL OIL IS MOVING THROUGH THE VTRA STUDY AREA
CARGO OIL TIME EXPOSURE:TOTAL AMOUNT OF ANNUAL TIME A CUBIC METER OF FOCUS
VESSEL CARGO (CRUDE + PRODUCT) OIL IS MOVING THROUGH THE VTRA STUDY AREA
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 5 of 24
FOCUS VESSELS MOVE OIL: Crude, Product and Fuel
Assumption 1 : Tankers are classified as crude or product carriers by nameAssumption 2 : Chemical carriers transport product.Assumption 3 : Oil barges are assumed to transport product.Assumption 4 : All Focus Vessels fuel tanks are 50% fullAssumption 5 : US bound crude tankers are assumed fully laden as they arrive in
study area, drop of equal amounts at their stops and leave empty.Assumption 6 : Canadian bound crude tankers are assumed empty as they arrive
and fully laden as they depart.Assumption 7 : Product Tankers and ATB’s are assumed fully laden as
they depart study area, empty as they arrive.Assumption 8 : Chemical carriers are assumed fully laden as they arrive in
the study area, empty when they leave the study area.Assumption 9 : When ATB’s go back and forth between two destinations
within the study area they are assumed 50% fullAssumption 10: Oil barges are assumed fully laden as they travel through
study area.Assumption 11: Tank Focus Vessels not covered by 1-10 are assumed fully laden.
Disclaimer: No information is available on volume of oil or type of oil onboard a vessel and we have to rely on overarching assumptions regarding movement of amount and type of oil as focus vessels move through the studyarea.
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 6 of 24
GWU Personnel: Dr. J. Rene van Dorp
VCU Personnel: Dr. Jason R. W. Merrick
December, 2013
VTRA 2010 – SYNOPSIS OF 3D SCENARIO COMPARISON
DEFINITION OF 15 WATERWAY ZONES
65
7
8
9
15
43
1
213
10
11
12
1. Buoy J2. ATBA3. WSJF4. ESJF5. Rosario6. Guemes7. Saddlebag8. Georgia Str.
9. Haro/Boun.10.PS North11.PS South12.Tacoma13.Sar/Skagit14.SJ Islands15.Islands Trt
VTRA 2010 Waterway Zones
14
VESSEL TIME EXPOSUREBy What-if Focus Vessels and Base Case Focus Vessels
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 7 of 24
P: Base Case 3D Risk Profile All FV - Vessel Time Exposure: 100% of Base Case VTE
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
P: BC @ 100%
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 8 of 24
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
P: BC @ 100%
VESSEL TIME EXPOSURE-VTE
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 9 of 24
P: BC & HIGH TAN + CFV 3D Risk Profile What-If FV - Vessel Time Exp.: 6% of Base Case VTE
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
P: BC & HIGH TAN + CFV 3D Risk Profile All FV - Vessel Time Exposure: 107% of Base Case VTE
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
P: BC & HIGH TAN 3D Risk Profile What-If FV - Vessel Time Exp.: 2% of Base Case VTE
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
P: BC & HIGH TAN 3D Risk Profile All FV - Vessel Time Exposure: 102% of Base Case VTE
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
+2%from P
+6%from P
+2%from P
+7%from P
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 10 of 24
0%
2%
7%
-25% 0% 25
%
P - Base Case | 100%
P - BC & HIGH TAN | 102%
P - BC & HIGH TAN + CFV | 107%
BC % Change from Case P
Annual Vessel Time Exposure (WI + BC Vessels)
VTRA 2010 : VESSEL TIME EXPOSURE, POT. ACC. FREQ POT. OIL. LOSS COMPARISON ALL FOCUS VESSELS
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 11 of 24
GWU Personnel: Dr. J. Rene van Dorp
VCU Personnel: Dr. Jason R. W. Merrick
December, 2013
VTRA 2010 – SYNOPSIS OF 3D SCENARIO COMPARISON
DEFINITION OF 15 WATERWAY ZONES
65
7
8
9
15
43
1
213
10
11
12
1. Buoy J2. ATBA3. WSJF4. ESJF5. Rosario6. Guemes7. Saddlebag8. Georgia Str.
9. Haro/Boun.10.PS North11.PS South12.Tacoma13.Sar/Skagit14.SJ Islands15.Islands Trt
VTRA 2010 Waterway Zones
14
POTENTIAL ACCIDENT FREQUENCY By What-if Focus Vessels and Base Case Focus Vessels
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 12 of 24
P: Base Case 3D Risk Profile All FV - Pot.Grou+Coll.Acc.Freq.: 100% of Base Case PCF
25-26 24-25
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
P: BC @ 100%
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 13 of 24
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
P: BC @ 100%
POTENTIAL ACCIDENTFREQUENCY - PAF
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 14 of 24
P: BC & HIGH TAN + CFV 3D Risk Profile What If FV - Pot.Gr+Co.Acc.Freq.: 5% of Base Case PCF
25-26 24-25
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
P: BC & HIGH TAN + CFV 3D Risk Profile All FV - Pot.Grou+Coll.Acc.Freq.: 104% of Base Case PCF
25-26 24-25
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
P: BC & HIGH TAN 3D Risk Profile What If FV - Pot.Gr+Co.Acc.Freq.: 2% of Base Case PCF
25-26 24-25
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
P: BC & HIGH TAN 3D Risk Profile All FV - Pot.Grou+Coll.Acc.Freq.: 103% of Base Case PCF
25-26 24-25
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
+2%from P
+5%from P
+3%from P
+4%from P
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 15 of 24
0%
2%
7%
-25% 0% 25
%
P - Base Case | 100%
P - BC & HIGH TAN | 102%
P - BC & HIGH TAN + CFV | 107%
BC % Change from Case P
Annual Vessel Time Exposure (WI + BC Vessels)
0%
3%
4%
-25% 0% 25
%
P - Base Case | 100%
P - BC & HIGH TAN | 103%
P - BC & HIGH TAN + CFV | 104%
BC % Change from Case P
Potential Accident (C+G) Frequency (WI + BC Vessels)
VTRA 2010 : VESSEL TIME EXPOSURE, POT. ACC. FREQ POT. OIL. LOSS COMPARISON ALL FOCUS VESSELS
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 16 of 24
GWU Personnel: Dr. J. Rene van Dorp
VCU Personnel: Dr. Jason R. W. Merrick
December, 2013
VTRA 2010 – SYNOPSIS OF 3D SCENARIO COMPARISON
DEFINITION OF 15 WATERWAY ZONES
65
7
8
9
15
43
1
213
10
11
12
1. Buoy J2. ATBA3. WSJF4. ESJF5. Rosario6. Guemes7. Saddlebag8. Georgia Str.
9. Haro/Boun.10.PS North11.PS South12.Tacoma13.Sar/Skagit14.SJ Islands15.Islands Trt
VTRA 2010 Waterway Zones
14
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS By What-if Focus Vessels and Base Case Focus Vessels
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 17 of 24
P: Base Case 3D Risk Profile All FV - Pot. Grou+Coll.Oil Loss: 100% of Base Case PCO
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
P: BC @ 100%
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 18 of 24
POTENTIAL ACCIDENTOIL LOSS - POL
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
P: BC @ 100%
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 19 of 24
P: BC & HIGH TAN + CFV 3D Risk Profile All FV - Pot. Grou+Coll.Oil Loss: 108% of Base Case PCO
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
P: BC & HIGH TAN 3D Risk Profile What If FV - Pot. Gr+Co.Oil Loss: 9% of Base Case PCO
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
P: BC & HIGH TAN 3D Risk Profile All FV - Pot. Grou+Coll.Oil Loss: 109% of Base Case PCO
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
P: BC & HIGH TAN + CFV 3D Risk Profile What If FV - Pot. Gr+Co.Oil Loss: 10% of Base Case PCO
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
+9%from P
+10%from P
+9%from P
+8%from P
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 20 of 24
0%
9%
8%
-25% 0% 25
%
P - Base Case | 100%
P - BC & HIGH TAN | 109%
P - BC & HIGH TAN + CFV | 108%
BC % Change from Case P
Potential Acc. Oil (C + F) Loss (WI + BC Vessels)
0%
2%
7%
-25% 0% 25
%
P - Base Case | 100%
P - BC & HIGH TAN | 102%
P - BC & HIGH TAN + CFV | 107%
BC % Change from Case P
Annual Vessel Time Exposure (WI + BC Vessels)
0%
3%
4%
-25% 0% 25
%
P - Base Case | 100%
P - BC & HIGH TAN | 103%
P - BC & HIGH TAN + CFV | 104%
BC % Change from Case P
Potential Accident (C+G) Frequency (WI + BC Vessels)
VTRA 2010 : VESSEL TIME EXPOSURE, POT. ACC. FREQ POT. OIL. LOSS COMPARISON ALL FOCUS VESSELS
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 21 of 24
DEFINITION OF 15 WATERWAY ZONES
65
7
8
9
15
43
1
213
10
11
12
1. Buoy J2. ATBA3. WSJF4. ESJF5. Rosario6. Guemes7. Saddlebag8. Georgia Str.
9. Haro/Boun.10.PS North11.PS South12.Tacoma13.Sar/Skagit14.SJ Islands15.Islands Trt
VTRA 2010 Waterway Zones
14
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
Draft - 12/12/2013 - 22 of 24
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
3.9%
4.8%
4.8%
9.8%
9.8%
10.0%
10.0%
13.4%
14.9%
17.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.8%
4.3%
4.8%
5.1%
9.7%
11.6%
10.3%
9.6%
11.8%
16.6%
23.7%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
SJ Islands : 0.0% | x 0.94Sar/Skagit : 0.0% | x 0.97
ATBA : 0.0% | x 0.94Tac. South : 0.0% | x 0.99
Buoy J : +0.3% | x 1.47Georgia Str. : +0.4% | x 1.09Islands Trt : +0.0% | x 1.01
WSJF : +0.4% | x 1.07Haro/Boun. : -0.1% | x 0.99
ESJF : +1.7% | x 1.17PS North : +0.3% | x 1.03PS South : -0.4% | x 0.96
Saddlebag : -1.7% | x 0.88Rosario : +1.6% | x 1.11Guemes : +6.7% | x 1.39
% Base Case Oil (Coll.+Grou.) Loss (OL) - ALL_FV
% Base Case Oil (Coll. + Grou.) Loss - ALL_FV
P: BC & HIGH TANKERS : 109% ( +9.1% | x 1.09) P: Base Case : 100%
++9%
Waterway Zone:
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
P & HTDraft - 12/12/2013 - 23 of 24
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
3.9%
4.8%
4.8%
9.8%
9.8%
10.0%
10.0%
13.4%
14.9%
17.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.9%
4.1%
4.9%
5.0%
10.4%
11.1%
10.5%
9.9%
12.6%
16.8%
21.2%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
SJ Islands : 0.0% | x 0.94Sar/Skagit : +0.0% | x 1.02
ATBA : 0.0% | x 0.88Tac. South : 0.0% | x 0.97
Buoy J : +0.3% | x 1.62Georgia Str. : +0.2% | x 1.04Islands Trt : +0.1% | x 1.03
WSJF : +0.3% | x 1.06Haro/Boun. : +0.5% | x 1.05
ESJF : +1.2% | x 1.12PS North : +0.5% | x 1.05PS South : -0.1% | x 0.99
Saddlebag : -0.8% | x 0.94Rosario : +1.9% | x 1.12Guemes : +4.2% | x 1.25
% Base Case Oil (Coll.+Grou.) Loss (OL) - ALL_FV
% Base Case Oil (Coll. + Grou.) Loss - ALL_FV
P: BC & HIGH TAN-CARGO FV : 108% ( +8.2% | x 1.08) P: Base Case : 100%
++8%
Waterway Zone:
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010
P & HTCDraft - 12/12/2013 - 24 of 24