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Voters’ Attitudes Toward Voters’ Attitudes Toward Social Security ReformSocial Security Reform
HARTHARTRESEARCHRESEARCH
P e t e r DP e t e r D
AA SS SS OO TT EE SSCC II AA
Key findings from surveys among 1,407 2004 presidential election voters,Conducted January 6 – 11, 2005
for
AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Top Priorities For Congress And The President
Top Priorities For Congress And The President
33%30%
28%
21%19%
12%
6%
One/two issues that should be Congress’/President’s highest priorities
Health care Jobs/
economy SocialSecurity
EducationBudgetdeficit
Reducetaxes
Lawsuitreform
Age 18-49:20%
Age 50/over:
37%
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Dwindling Support For Private AccountsDwindling Support
For Private Accounts
31%37%
45% 45% 44% 46%
64%59%
52% 52% 53%49%
May 2000 Sept 2000 Mar 2001 July 2002 Dec 2004 Jan 2005
Support Oppose
Do you support or oppose a plan in which people could invest some of their Social Security contributions in the stock market?
Trend source: ABC News/Washington Post surveys
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Voters Assess The Financial Condition Of Social SecurityVoters Assess The Financial Condition Of Social Security
Looking ahead, how would you describe the financial condition of Social Security?
6%
26%
39%
26%
Basically secure
Faces major
troubles
Faces a crisis
Assessment has improved slightly since 1998, when 27% said SS was secure/ faced minor troubles.
Faces minor
troubles
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Why Is Social Security In Trouble?Why Is Social Security In Trouble?
2%
11%
17%
25%
32%
48%
Top one/two reason Social Security might face financial problems in future
Government has used trust fund for other purposes
Large number of Baby Boomers retiring soon
People living longer after retiring
Bush tax cuts reduced revenue/increased deficit
Social Security payroll taxes not keeping up with costs
Benefits to retireesare too high
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
34%
61%
69%
26%
SS will pay same as now/somewhat lower when I retireSS will pay much lower/no benefits when I retire
Age 18-49
Working Americans’ Confidence In Their Own Benefits
Working Americans’ Confidence In Their Own Benefits
Age 50/over
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Why Is Social Security Valuable?Why Is Social Security Valuable?
8%
14%
18%
24%
34%
47%
Top one/two reason Social Security is valuable and important
Benefit people earn by paying in, not a handout
Safety net that keeps retirees out of poverty
Guaranteed income that can never be taken away
Promise that must be kept
Foundation of a secure retirement
Social contract that all Americans support
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Top Goals For Social SecurityTop Goals For Social Security
Top Priorities for Congress in Dealing with Social Security
Provide benefits people paid for
Strengthen Social Security
Modernize Social Security
Reform Social Security
Preserve Social Security
Leave Social Security alone
Privatize Social Security
31%
30%
25%
23%
17%
14%
11%
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Declining Bush Approval On Social Security
Declining Bush Approval On Social Security
49%
31%
38%
55%
Approve Disapprove
March 2001
Source: Gallup, ABC News/Washington Post
January 2005
20% of Bush voters lack confidence in Bush on SS issue.
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
15%
Stronglyfavor13%
39%
46%
Somewhatfavor
Somewhatoppose
Stronglyoppose
32%
Not sure
Initial Support For Bush PlanInitial Support For Bush Plan
Knowledge of Plan
Great dealFair amountLittle/none
17%40%43%
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
6%
Informed Support For Bush PlanInformed Support For Bush Plan
Stronglyfavor12%
40%
54%
Somewhatfavor
Somewhatoppose
Stronglyoppose
35%
Not sure
Main Provisions of Bush Plan
Workers age 55 and younger allowed to place one-third of payroll taxes in voluntary private investment accounts.
Guaranteed monthly benefit for future retirees reduced in steps by
30% to 50%, depending on whether
they choose private account.
No change in benefits for people over age 55.
Long-term SS funding shortfall eliminated, but government will borrow $2 trillion to fund transition costs.
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Variations In Support For Bush PlanVariations In Support For Bush Plan
All voters
MenWomen
Age 18 to 34Age 35 to 49Age 50 to 64Age 65/over
WhitesAfrican AmericansHispanics
Support40%
46%35%
47%43%37%32%
43%20%40%
Oppose54%
50%57%
48%53%58%59%
51%74%55%
DemocratsIndependentsRepublicans
When I retire, SS benefits will be:
Same as now/ somewhat lower
Much lower/none
SS is a priority
Support
12%32%74%
40%
46%
36%
Oppose
85%60%20%
57%
48%
58%
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Opportunity To Win Back Key GroupsOpportunity To Win Back Key Groups
37%
52%
44%
56%
38%
56%
40%
58%
Kerry vote % % opposing Bush SS plan
White women Non-collegewhite women
White seniors
Non-collegeeducated whites
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Political Impact Of Voting For Bush PlanPolitical Impact Of
Voting For Bush PlanIf my member of Congress voted for
Bush’s Social Security plan:
21%
41%
33%
I would be MORE likely to vote for him/her in next election
It would make no
difference to me
either way
I would be LESS
likely to vote for him/her in next election
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Wait For Better Plan Wait For Better Plan
20%
64%
Should Congress act this year?
Congress should wait and develop a different plan for Social
Security
Congress should pass Bush plan
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Options To Strengthen Retirement Security Options To Strengthen Retirement Security
32%
34%
50%
56%
54%
Strongly favor Somewhat favor
Tax-free retirement savings options, separate from SS
Have Congress repay money it took from SS trust fund
Repeal Bush tax cuts for wealthiest 1%, give to SS
Maintain inheritance tax for $3 million/more, give to SS
Payroll tax on first $190,000, not $90,000 as is now
82%
73%
65%
58%
60%
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Options To Strengthen Retirement SecurityOptions To Strengthen Retirement Security
11%
14%
18%
Strongly favor Somewhat favor
Reduce benefits for future retirees w/over $50K
Small reduction in COLAfor benefits
Raise eligibility age for full benefits to 70
39%
26%
37%
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
24%29%
20%
37%
Responses To “Crisis” ClaimsResponses To “Crisis” Claims
37%
55%
SUPPORTERS say that Congress should pass the Bush plan because the current Social Security system is unsustainable, and we must take action now to avert a crisis later.
Agree withsupporters
Agree withopponents
Agree withsupporters
Agree withopponents
41%
53%THOSE OPPOSED to the plan say that Social Security faces problems but not a crisis, and making modest changes will preserve benefits for future retirees--we do not need the radical changes proposed by Bush.
THOSE OPPOSED to the plan agree that we must address Social Security's problems, but say that this plan makes those problems even worse by diverting trillions of dollars from the trust fund and weakening the system.
+12 +18
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Private Accounts Vs. Benefit CutsPrivate Accounts Vs. Benefit Cuts
SUPPORTERS [of Bush plan] say that private investment accounts will be a good deal for younger workers because they provide a higher rate of return on payroll taxes and let people control their own money.
THOSE OPPOSED to the plan say that Social Security is designed to provide a guaranteed monthly benefit you can count on--there are places for risk in retirement savings, but Social Security is not one of them.
+14
SUPPORTERS say Social Security is underfunded by $10 trillion and will never make good on its promises. There is simply no alternative to reducing benefits in the future, and the Bush plan makes up for those cuts by providing private investment accounts.
THOSE OPPOSED to the plan say that people deserve to receive the Social Security benefits they paid for. Congress should repay the trust fund and strengthen Social Security so it can pay the promised benefits, not cut benefits.
+25
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Concerns about Bush PlanConcerns about Bush Plan
Benefit cuts and risky accounts
$2 trillion in borrowing
Corruption and waste
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Impact Of Benefit Cut MessagesImpact Of Benefit Cut Messages
Many seniors would end up in poverty if their private investment account did not do well, and they would have to be taken care of by the taxpayers
The private investment accounts are supposed to be voluntary, but the plan cuts your benefits by 30% even if you do not choose a private account, and that is not fair
The average retiree would lose a total of $134,000 in benefits under this plan if they live for 20 after they retire
For every dollar you have in your investment account when you retire, the plan would deduct about 50 cents from your retirement benefits – this is a bad deal
Private accounts undermine the basic purpose of Social Security, which is to provide a guaranteed, risk-free base of retirement income
Persuadable voters who say each is a very serious concern
75%
74%
72%
64%
46%
Cutting survivor benefits (69%) and disability benefits (66%) are also serious concerns.
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Impact Of Deficit Cost MessagesImpact Of Deficit Cost Messages
The government would have to borrow $2 trillion, mainly from countries such as China and Japan, to fund this plan. The health of Social Security should not depend on the willingness of foreign countries to lend us money
Under the Bush plan, the Social Security trust fund actually would run out of money 14 years sooner than is now expected. It makes Social Security's funding problems worse, not better
76%
62%
Persuadable voters who say each is a very serious concern
Debating Deficit Impact:“It is irresponsible to add $2 trillion in new debt with the deficit already so high – Social Security needs solid funding, not more IOUs” (66% agree).
“It is all right to borrow money in the short-term to fund this plan, because it solves the much larger long-term fiscal problem of Social Security being underfunded” (21% agree).
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Impact Of Corruption/Waste MessagesImpact Of Corruption/Waste Messages
The government will decide which Wall Street firms get to manage the private investment accounts and make billions of dollars in profits. Those decisions will be based on political influence, not what is best for average people
Having the federal government administer 125 million individual accounts will create more bureaucracy and administrative costs that will reduce retirement benefits
The administrative costs of private accounts and fees for the big Wall Street companies that manage them will reduce earnings on the private accounts by about 20%
75%
55%
39%
Persuadable voters who say each is a very serious concern
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
39%
46%
34%
61%
Favor Oppose
Final Verdict On Bush PlanFinal Verdict On Bush Plan
Initial View Final View
-27
-7
Non-collegewomen
Age 18-34
SS in crisis
69%
58%
57%
Oppose
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Conclusions:Play Offense, Not Defense
Conclusions:Play Offense, Not Defense
Voters come to the debate already skeptical about privatization – especially those voters who care most about Social Security – and there are clear opportunities to strengthen and deepen their doubts.
It is important to take the offensive and define this plan in the public mind now, not wait to respond to the coming Bush PR offensive.
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Conclusions:Framing the Debate
Conclusions:Framing the Debate
DON’T debate this at the level of philosophy -- “ownership society” vs. “social insurance.”
DO focus on the real, concrete harm to Americans’ retirement security done by the Bush plan.
DON’T get caught up in debating the size of the problem.
DO focus on how Bush plan makes problem worse and weakens Social Security.
DON’T focus all your attention on “risk” of accounts.
DO tell Americans about huge benefit cuts in plan.
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Conclusions: Focusing Our Message
Conclusions: Focusing Our Message
The Bush plan undermines retirement security by cutting guaranteed benefits 30% to 50%, even for those who don’t choose an account. Risky privatization accounts won’t make up the difference. Working people should get the benefits they paid for.
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Conclusions:Focusing Our Message
Conclusions:Focusing Our Message
The Bush plan would hurt our economy and pass huge new bills onto future generations of workers by borrowing $2 trillion from China, Japan, and other foreign nations. Social Security needs solid funding, not more IOUs.
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Conclusions:Focusing Our Message
Conclusions:Focusing Our Message
Social Security does face problems, but the Bush plan makes the problem worse and weakens Social Security by diverting trillions of dollars from the trust fund.
We can strengthen Social Security without slashing benefits:
Require Congress to pay back the money it has diverted from Social Security and create new opportunities for Americans to have tax-free savings for their retirement in addition to Social Security.
Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO
Conclusions:The Bush Plan is a Fraud
Conclusions:The Bush Plan is a Fraud
Be aggressive in telling Americans that Bush is selling them a bill of goods:
It’s not voluntary – benefits cut either wayDon’t get to keep all your gains – 50% taxCannot pass on to heirs – must annuitizeDon’t ‘control your own money’ – politicians will
pick firms to control the accounts, a process corrupted by politics