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V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt
CRGAQS:Meteorological Modeling
Presentation to the
SWCAA
By
ENVIRON International Corporation
Alpine Geophysics, LLC
August 17, 2006
V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt
Today’s Presentation
• Further additional evaluation of MM5 performance– Compare 4/12-km results– Compare Final (Run 6) against UW (Run
3)
• Analyses conducted for:– 4-km surface wind fields in Gorge area– Wind, temperature, humidity time series
at west, central, east sites
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Today’s Presentation
– PBL/mixing heights– Cloud cover and fog on 4-km grid– Wind, temperature, RH at Wishram
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Conclusions
• Winds similar among:– 4-km and 12-km grids– Final Run 6 and UW Run 3
• Possible slight edge to Run 6 4-km winds due to observation nudging
• Temperature/humidity:– UW Run 3 better for November– Final Run 6 @12-km better for August
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Conclusions
• Clouds/fog:– Unimportant for August episode– Very important for November episode
• UW Run 3 generates more low clouds/flog
• But less high large-scale cloudiness
• Recommendation:– Use Final Run 6 12-km for August– Use UW Run 3 4-km for November
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Wind Performance, August 2004
• Hi bscat 8/10-8/16, 8/19
• Similar performance, both runs, both grids– Poor performance at central sites 8/10-
8/13• Wind opposite direction
– Good performance 8/14-8/22• Maybe too light on some days
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UW 4km
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UW 12km
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Run 6 4km
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Run 6 12km
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Wind Performance, November 2004
• Hi bscat 11/8-11/13• Similar performance, both runs, both
grids– Final Run 6 a bit better (nudging?)– Overall better performance than for
August episode– Very good performance over 11/8-11/13
• Some stagnation leads to wind direction errors
• Some windy periods are too light
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UW 4km
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UW 12km
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Run 6 12km
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Run 6 12km
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Cloud Cover
• August 2004 notes at Wishram camera:8/10 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze8/11 No clouds, No layered haze8/12 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze8/13 No clouds, No layered haze8/14 (high) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/15 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze8/16 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/17 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/18 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/19 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze8/20 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/21 (high) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/22 Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze
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August 2004 Cloud Cover
• Performance appears adequate– MM5 cannot replicate high thin/wispy
cirrus– MM5 usually underperforms for scattered
small-scale afternoon cumulus– These should not play significant role in
regional PM chemistry– Choice of MM5 not important
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Wishram Camera
August 14, noon Pristine
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Run 6
Low High
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UW Run 3
Low High
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Cloud Cover
• November 2004 notes at Wishram camera:11/3 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze11/4 No clouds, Ground-based layered haze only11/5 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze (hazy)11/6 Scattered clouds < half of sky, Ground-based layered haze only11/7 Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze (hazy)11/8 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (thick haze)11/9 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (thick haze)11/10 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (fog)11/11 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (thick haze)11/12 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (fog)11/13 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (thick haze)11/14 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (distant fog)11/15 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene11/16 Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze11/17 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze11/18 Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze
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November 2004 Cloud Cover
• Large-scale higher clouds appear well simulated– Run 6 makes more large-scale (higher)
cloudiness
• Low-level cloud/fog events are not– Run 3 makes more low-level (foggy) clouds
– Especially on the high bscat days
– This will impact aqueous PM chemistry
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Wishram Camera
November 10, noon Pristine
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Run 6
Low High
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UW Run 3
Low High
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Wishram Camera
November 13, noon Pristine
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Run 6
Low Low
UW Run 3
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August 2004 Meteorology
• Wind speed/direction well simulated– Both grids, both MM5 configurations
• Run 6 4-km temperatures are highly suspect– Run 6 12-km is better
• But min temps too warm during haze period
• Better characterization of afternoon mixing?
– Run 3 4- & 12-km are better• But too cool during haze period
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August 2004 Meteorology
• Run 6 4-km humidity too wet– Run 6 12-km humidity better
• But not high enough in early morning (related to high min temps)
– Run 3 4- & 12-km humidity better• But not high enough in early morning
• Overall Run 6 12-km met looks best
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UW 4km Wind Speed
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Run 6 4km Wind Speed
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UW 4km Wind Direction
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Run 6 4km Wind Direction
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Wishram MeteorologyWind Speed at Wishram: August 10-22
0
5
10
15
20
25
8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22
m/s
Observed
Run 6 4-km
Run 3 4-km
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Wishram MeteorologyWind Direction at Wishram: August 10-22
0
60
120
180
240
300
360
8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22
Deg
Observed
Run 6 4-km
Run 3 4-km
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UW 4km Temperature
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Run 6 4km Temperature
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Run 6 12km Temperature
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Wishram MeteorologyTemperature at Wishram: August 10-22
290
295
300
305
310
315
8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22
K
ObservedRun 6 4-kmRun 6 12-kmRun 3 4-kmRun 3 12-km
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UW/Run 6 PBL Heights
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UW 4km Mixing Ratio
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Run 6 4km Mixing Ratio
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Run 6 12km Mixing Ratio
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Wishram Meteorology%RH at Wishram: August 10-22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22
%R
H
ObservedRun 6 4-kmRun 6 12-kmRun 3 4-kmRun 3 12-km
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November 2004 Meteorology
• Wind speed/direction performance appears acceptable– Both grids, both simulations– Run 6 perhaps a bit better (nudging)
• Run 6 4-km temperature performance is poor– Run 6 12-km better– Run 3 4-km much better
• Run 6 4-km humidity is too low – no fog– Run 6 12-km better– Run 3 4-km much better
• Overall Run 3 4-km looks best
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UW 4km Wind Speed
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Run 6 4km Wind Speed
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UW 4km Wind Direction
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Run 6 4km Wind Direction
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Wishram MeteorologyWind Speed at Wishram: November 3-18
0
3
6
9
12
15
11/3 11/4 11/5 11/6 11/7 11/8 11/9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18
m/s
Observed
Run 6 4-km
Run 3 4-km
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Wishram MeteorologyWind Direction at Wishram: November 3-18
0
60
120
180
240
300
360
11/3 11/4 11/5 11/6 11/7 11/8 11/9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18
Deg
Observed
Run 6 4-km
Run 3 4-km
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UW 4km Temperature
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Run 6 4km Temperature
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Run 6 12km Temperature
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Wishram MeteorologyTemperature at Wishram: November 3-18
270
272
274
276
278
280
282
284
286
288
290
11/3 11/4 11/5 11/6 11/7 11/8 11/9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18
K
Observed
Run 6 4-km
Run 3 4-km
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UW/Run 6 PBL Heights
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UW 4km Mixing Ratio
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Run 6 4km Mixing Ratio
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Run 6 12km Mixing Ratio
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Wishram Meteorology%RH at Wishram: November 3-18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
11/3 11/4 11/5 11/6 11/7 11/8 11/9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18
%R
H
Observed Run 6 4-km
Run 3 4-km