V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt CRGAQS: Latest CAMx 2018 Results Presentation to the Gorge Study Technical Team ENVIRON International Corporation Alpine

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V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt

CRGAQS:Latest CAMx 2018 Results

Presentation to theGorge Study Technical Team

ENVIRON International CorporationAlpine Geophysics, LLC

May 23, 2007


Today’s Presentation

• Review 2004 extinction against IMROVE• Review modeled organic carbon

components• Show revised nephelometer comparisons

– Account for high humidity in November episode• Latest 2018 CAMx simulations

– Review results for August episode• Compare 2004, 2018 and 2018 What-if’s

– Review results for November episode• Compare 2004, 2018 and 2018 What-if’s

– Trend lines• Next Steps


2004 Extinction vs IMPROVEExtinction Components at Mt Zion [1/Mm].

IMPROVE observed (left) vs. CAMx 04Nov.run10 (right)

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(NH4)2SO4 (NH4)NO3 OC EC FINE COARSE NA+PCL

Extinction Components at Wishram [1/Mm]. IMPROVE Observed (left) vs. CAMx 04Aug.run10 (right)

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2004 Extinction vs IMPROVEExtinction Components at Mt Zion [1/Mm].

IMPROVE Observed (left) vs. CAMx 04Nov.run10 (right)

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Extinction Components at Wishram [1/Mm]. IMPROVE Observed (left) and CAMx 04Nov.run10 (right)

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CAMx Organics

• Primary organic aerosol (POA)– Sources: any combustion– Emitted as a stable aerosol

• No evaporation/re-condensation

• Secondary organic aerosol (SOA)– VOCs oxidize to condensable gases– SOA forms as f(T, RH, aerosol mass)– Condensation/evaporation possible


CAMx Organics

• CAMx treats 5 kinds of SOA– SOA1-3 from anthropogenic VOC

sources• Tracks formation from aromatics and parafins• Combustion and fugitive sources

– SOA4-5 from biogenic VOC • Terpenes generate two SOA products• Less apt to evaporate• Updates coming for both CAMx and CMAQ

– Sesqueterpenes and isoprene


2004 vs. 2018 Results (August)

OC Concentrations [ug/m^3] at Mt Zion2004 Base (run 10, left), 2018 Base.a1 (right)

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[ug

/m^

3]

POA

SOA5

SOA4

SOA3

SOA2

SOA1


2004 vs. 2018 Results (August)

OC Concentrations [ug/m^3] at Wishram2004 Base (run 10, left), 2018 Base.a1 (right)

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[ug

/m^

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POA

SOA5

SOA4

SOA3

SOA2

SOA1


2004 vs. 2018 Results (November)

OC Concentrations [ug/m^3] at Mt Zion2004 Base (run 10, left), 2018 Base.a1 (right)

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[ug

/m^

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POA

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SOA1


2004 vs. 2018 Results (November)

OC Concentrations [ug/m^3] at Wishram2004 Base (run 10, left), 2018 Base.a1 (right)

02468

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[ug

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POA

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SOA1


November NephelometerBonneville Light Scattering

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Bsc

at [

1/M

m]

Bscat, observed Bscat, wet Bscat, dry

Wishram Light Scattering

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Bsc

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November NephelometerSauvie Island Light Scattering

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Bsc

at [

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Mt Zion Light Scattering

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Bsc

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What-if Scenarios

• Case 01 – zero Boardman emissions• Case 02 – zero NH3 emissions for PSAT

region 5 (east of Gorge)• Case 03 – zero on-road mobile source

emissions for PSAT region 2 (Portland and Vancouver)

• Case 04 – zero major point source emissions for PSAT region 2

• Case 05 – zero major point source emissions for PSAT region 1 (in-Gorge)


-2160 -2088 -2016 -1944 -1872 -1800 -1728 -1656 -1584

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Source R egion M ap - 4km dom ain1. In-G orge2. Portland3. N orthW est o f G orge4. W est of G orge5. East o f G orge

(LC P D efin ition: -97, 40, 45, 33)

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PSAT Regions

-2160 -2088 -2016 -1944 -1872 -1800 -1728 -1656 -1584

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Source R egion M ap - 4km dom ain1. In-G orge2. Portland3. N orthW est o f G orge4. W est of G orge5. East of G orge

(LC P D efin ition: -97, 40, 45, 33)

1

2

5

4

3


2004 vs. 2018 Results (August)Extinction Components at Mt Zion [1/Mm]

2004 Base (run10), 2018 Base.a1, and Sensitivity Runs 1-5

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[1/M

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2004 vs. 2018 Results (August)Extinction Components at Wishram [1/Mm]

2004 Base (run 10), 2018 Base.a1, and Sensitivity Runs 1-5

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[1/M

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CAMx-Predicted Extinction TrendsAugust Episode

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2004 2018

Mm

-1

Mt Zion

Wishram

August Trend Lines

-0.33 Mm-1 per year

-0.99 Mm-1 per year

CAMx-Predicted Deciview TrendsAugust Episode

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2004 2018

Dv

Mt Zion

Wishram

-0.03 per year

-0.10 per year-6.2 Mm-1

-10%

-13.9 Mm-1

-27%

-0.44

-1.35


2004 vs. 2018 Results (November)Extinction Components at Mt Zion [1/Mm]


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2004 vs. 2018 Results (November)Extinction Components at Wishram [1/Mm]


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CAMx-Predicted Deciview TrendsNovember Episode

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2004 2018

Dv

Mt Zion

Wishram

CAMx-Predicted Extinction TrendsNovember Episode

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2004 2018

Mm

-1

Mt Zion

Wishram

November Trend Lines

-2.42 Mm-1 per year

-3.67 Mm-1 per year

-0.03 per year

-0.05 per year-33.9 Mm-1

-9%

-51.4 Mm-1

-15%

-0.42-0.72


Next Steps

• Apply modeled changes to observed levels

• Finish PSAT (2004/2018, August/ November)

• Complete report

Documents

V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt CRGAQS: Latest CAMx 2018 Results Presentation to the Gorge Study Technical Team ENVIRON International Corporation Alpine