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CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES
VANDANA RAO, Ph.D.Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs
November 05, 2014Mass Envirothon Workshop @ UMass Amherst
Granted, we don’t have this……
Location: Mumbai (Bombay), India
Or this………
But we are ALREADY seeing more of this….
July 10, 2010 Storm – 4 inches in 1 hour
Source: John Bolduc, Environmental Planner, City of Cambridge
and this…….
and this…..
Source: Boston Globe
Plum Island
And on the other hand…..………….this too!
So what is really going on?
GLOBAL SCALE
− Atmospheric CO2, CH4 and N2O have increased at levels
unprecedented in at least last 800,000 yrs
− CO2 has increased by 40% since pre-industrial times primarily
from fuel emissions and net land use change emissions
− Ocean has absorbed 30% of emitted CO2 causing ocean acidification
Atmospheric CO2
Observed Global Atmospheric Changes
Each of the last three decades has been successfully warmer than any preceding decade since 1850
Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013
Predicted Global Atmospheric Changes
Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013
Predicted Surface Temperature
Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013
Global Sea Level Rise (SLR)
− Rate of SLR since the mid 19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia (high confidence).
− Between 1901-2010 SLR rose by 0.19m
Source: Draft National Climate Assessment
Ice & Snow Cover
Over last 2 decades, − Greenland & Antarctic
ice sheets losing mass
− Glaciers continued to shrink worldwide
− Arctic sea ice & Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover continued to decrease
Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013
REGIONAL SCALE
Image Credit: New England Integrated Sciences and Assessment, http://inhale.unh.edu/Climate/index.html
Observed Precipitation
Observed Precipitation
Observed Change in Annual Heavy Precipitation i.e. 1% of all daily events from 1901 to 2012
Observed Annual total precipitation changes for 1901-2012 compared to 1901-1960
Source: Climate Change Impacts in the United States. U.S. National Climate Assessment, 2014
Annual Total Heavy Downpours
Precipitation Flooding
Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program
Source: When It Rains It Pours, Envi. America, 2012
Percent increase in amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (heaviest 1% of all daily events) from 1958 to 2012
Predicted Precipitation
Comparing 100-year 24-hour rain event – Old vs New data
More Intense Storms 100-year - 24 hour
Design Storm Comparison County
TP-40 Rainfall (1930-1960)
(inches)
NRCC Rainfall – aka Cornell(1936-2008)
(inches)
PercentChange
NOAA - Atlas14 draft(1849 - 2013)
Barnstable 7.1 8.2 16 %
Between 7.0 – 8.51
Berkshire 6.4 7.6 19 % Bristol 7.0 8.6 22 % Dukes 7.2 8.3 15 % Essex 6.4 8.8 38 % Franklin 6.2 7.4 19 % Hampden 6.5 8.0 23 % Hampshire 6.4 7.6 19 % Middlesex 6.4 8.5 33 % Plymouth 6.9 8.7 26 % Worcester 6.4 8.2 29 %
More Water……YAAAYY!!!
.
.
..
So, What’s the problem??
The Problem………….
Pre-DevelopmentImpacts from Typical
Development
• High Evapo-Transpiration
• Decreased recharge because of
– less snowpack
– less snow melt
– high intensity storm events
• Short term droughts
The Problem………….
Low Flow due to Excessive Water Supply Pumping
Aquifers provide 70-80% of river baseflow (up to 100% in drought)
In addition………
Potential Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Hydrologic Systems
2. Higher Water Table, Reduced Depth-to-Water
3: Increased Baseflow
4: Saltwater Intrusion
1. Higher Sea Level
and………
4 foot compliance without SLR, but only 2 foot with SLR
Source: Horsley Witten Group, Inc.
and………
“Sandy was a whole other story.”Jim Cooper, Superintendent of Milford (CT) Wastewater Division
In other words…….
Changing Water Regime impacts our
- AQUATIC RESOURCES- INFRASTRUCTURE
- BUILT ENVIRONMENT
So how is Massachusetts addressing its
long-termWater Sustainability?
Protect Existing Supplies
Ensure Recharge
Use Water Wisely
Smart Growth
Green Infrastructur
e
Aquifer Land Purchase
State Funding - EEA, CZM
Permit ConditionsMA Water
Conservation Standards
Stormwater, Low Impact
Development
Allocate Water Wisely
Permit Mitigation
State Funding & Technical Assistance
